so we'll ask, what's in store for 2025? and as the us economy gets a new leader, will it continue to drag the rest of the world along, or will inflation, war and trouble in china prove to be bigger challenges? i'll discuss all of this with these two. we'll delve into the big issues with one of the top economists atjp morgan — it's one of the world's biggest banks — and this top expert will explain what trade tensions and climate change mean for the cost of our supermarket shopping. plus, what about the world of work? the boss of the planet's biggest recruitment firm tells us what the new year might bring for our pay and our prospects. wherever you'rejoining us from, welcome to the programme. now, as the year draws to an end, we're taking a look at what's in store for the global economy in 2025. it promises to be a year full

of change after a 12 months that saw around 4 billion people, or half of the world's population, vote for new leaders and new directions for their countries and economies. over the last year, the us has remained the bright spot, while economies in both china and europe continue to struggle. at the same time, global trade has continued to be rocked by a war in ukraine and the middle east, and prices have risen faster than many would like. the global economy is forecast to grow 3.2% next year, according to the international monetary fund. they've called that stable yet underwhelming. another important number is inflation. globally, it's expected to fall to 3.5% next year as the pace of price rises slows, but remains a key concern for policymakers and politicians. lower energy prices are also having an impact. as you can see, oil prices have been pretty steady this year despite continued tensions in the middle east, and that's thanks to plentiful supply and subdued demand.

on the stock markets, the s&p 500 index of america's biggest companies has repeatedly hit record highs, demonstrating the overall resilience of the world's biggest economy. it is expected to remain a bright spot this year, and a lot of that is down to us consumers continuing to spend money and their demand for everything from gadgets to eating out and cars that's kept the wheels that's kept the wheels of the global economy turning. of the global economy turning. so let's dig a little deeper so let's dig a little deeper on what the big factors are that could influence how well economies on what the big factors are that around the world perform in 2025. jp morgan is one of the world's jp morgan is one of the world's biggest and most influential banks. biggest and most influential banks. i've been speaking to its head i've been speaking to its head of global macro research. of global macro research. luis 0ganes, welcome luis 0ganes, welcome to the programme. to the programme. it's good to have you here. it's good to have you here. and, look, the imf predicting growth and, look, the imf predicting growth next year, in their words, next year, in their words, stable yet underwhelming, stable yet underwhelming, still below the levels seen still below the levels seen before the pandemic. before the pandemic. is that how you see 2025? is that how you see 2025?

yes. yes. growth is... you know, we're closing this year as actually a very strong year, relatively speaking, given the circumstances where us being exceptional, china doing a lot to support its growth, emerging markets showing a lot of resilience, europe, as you know, is a bit of a weak spot, but it has been so for some time. so a lot of these trends are expected to continue next year.

many countries that rely on trade with the us. so this sense of us exceptionalism is probably going to be something that is going to intensify in 2025. so let's look at the us, though, and the specifics right now before trump 2.0. what is the us doing right? why is there a sense that its economy is still growing quite strongly when other developed economies around the world are really struggling to shake off the effects of the pandemic? the us has been a bit of an outlier, hasn't it? it has been, and a lot of that is because of its production structure. it is not fully self—sufficient, but a lot more self—sufficient on energy than europe or other parts of the world. and that has meant that manufacturing there doesn't have to deal with the consequences, for example, of the russia—ukraine war. and you have the issue of inflation coming down that has propped up real wages and purchasing power of consumers. you have had accumulation of savings during the pandemic that has been

deployed for consumption as well. and of course, you have a propped up equity market that has led to this so—called wealth effect in which american consumers feel, you know, wealthier and therefore are spending more. so a number of combinations that so a number of combinations that are making us growth, you know, are making us growth, you know, exceptional, actually. exceptional, actually. and in sharp contrast, and in sharp contrast, though, what's happening though, what's happening in china almost mirrors in china almost mirrors that, doesn't it? that, doesn't it? i mean, the authorities i mean, the authorities in china are worried in china are worried about domestic consumption. about domestic consumption. they're worried about debt. related to the housing market. they're worried about debt. they're worried about they're worried about the property market. the property market. and as the number two economy, that and as the number two economy, that has repercussions around the world. has repercussions around the world. so give me your sense about how so give me your sense about how worried we should be about what's worried we should be about what's happening in china and what that happening in china and what that potential contagion could be. potential contagion could be. it is important. it is important. whatever happens there is going whatever happens there is going to have a global consequence. to have a global consequence. china has been deploying a lot china has been deploying a lot of measures to try to prop of measures to try to prop up its growth numbers with, up its growth numbers with, i would say, partial success. i would say, partial success. this year, we're expecting this year, we're expecting growth at around 4.8%, growth at around 4.8%, so very close to that 5% target so very close to that 5% target that they had from that they had from the official side. the official side. however, there are structural issues however, there are structural issues

related to the housing market. you still have a lot of the measures that are propping up production rather than propping up consumption.

so whatever china cannot sell to the us or to europe, it's going to look to sell elsewhere — the rest of asia, other emerging market economies, etc. so overall, maybe trade volumes globally are not going to decline so much, but there's going to be a transition and it's going to be a relatively painful transition for many countries. many countries are going to be fearing and experiencing a lot of competition of cheap exports coming from china into their shores. so it's going to be deflationary, and maybe that helps inflation, but obviously it will hurt manufacturing in other places. and i wonder what it means for the eu and for the united states, because there is a reason that they are key trading partners. china is able to make stuff more cheaply and sell it into those markets. you know, the politics is slapping tariffs on it. the economics may suffer. correct? absolutely. and i think that as a result, you know, in a world that is moving in a more isolationist direction, meaning that, you know,

there is a populist backlash and the backlash is coming from globalisation, what that is going to mean is that we're all, as global consumers, going to be buying products, probably not from the cheapest source. therefore, prices are going to be higher. so i think that one of the question marks about this tariff war that we're probably going to see intensifying in the coming quarters is that it's going to lead to higher inflation once again, and that will impede the work of central banks that are looking to cut interest rates. maybe we're going to be forced to settle for higher interest rates and higher prices globally. are there other systemic issues that europe is dealing with right now? because, you know, you look at an ageing population, an ageing workforce, you look at extra demands for things like climate change. what are the other issues that are ailing europe right now, and is it going to be easy to shake them off? a lot of the business model of europe, particularly the powerhouses on the industrial side, like germany, was quite reliant on cheap energy from russia. it's uncertain what will happen in the future on that front.

so in the meantime, europe needs to reinvent itself. that obviously takes time. that takes a concerted effort. and, unfortunately, any decision that is made in the eurozone needs to have the acquiescence agreement of 27 countries. so it's more problematic. now, what is interesting in europe, though, is the northern european countries are the ones that are suffering the most. some of the periphery countries, including spain, portugal or even greece, are not suffering as much. so it's not all doom and gloom, but it does require a lot of soul—searching and a lot of agreement from within. and we've touched on what tariffs would mean, particularly those coming from the us under trump 2.0, but he's also announced — or there's certainly a lot of rhetoric around — tax cuts, deregulation, and i wonder what that means domestically in the united states but also for the rest of the world? well, domestically, it's going to be a good thing, right? i mean, any country where you cut taxes, you do free up more resources for investment, for consumption. so the fact that the market has cheered this prospect and welcomed

mr trump with a big rally is not, in a way, irrational. companies that are dealing with a lot of bureaucracy, a lot of impediments for their investment decisions, are going to have a freer hand to make such decisions, so all that is good. the issue, though, is, well, first of all, how do you pay for that? the fiscal deficit in the us is already quite high. so if there's no identification of where to cut spending in order to find these tax cuts, you're going to have the prospect of higher deficits, which means more pressure on markets, and therefore higher interest rates in order for the markets to be able to absorb these additional... so unfortunately there is no free lunch in economics and the prospect of wider, more relaxed fiscal policy brings with it, together with the tariffs that were already mentioned, the prospect of higher interest rates. that would, unfortunately... and if you were to sum up 2025,

in economic terms, what will be the themes that we will be keeping an eye on next year? going back to the issue that everything points still to continued us exceptionalism at the expense of the rest of the world. we have the inauguration 20th of january. we may hear a lot of new information being revealed right there, and then we just need to wait and see. i'm hoping that in the end, the conditions are there to the extent that inflation is coming down. so 2025 doesn't need to be a bad year, right? it could well be that we may be celebrating the continuation of a still resilient 2024, but a lot of it will depend, you know, what are the policies that get deployed, particularly from the us? luis 0ganes, really good to have you on the programme this week. thank you. thanks for the invitation. now, the one thing none of us can do without is food, but it's also been one of the biggest contributors to inflation in recent years, thanks to factors including the war in ukraine and export restrictions that governments

have now put in place. so how might our supermarket bills change in the year ahead? well, i've been speaking to the head of research at one of the world's leading agricultural commodities merchants. that's ed&f man. kona haque, thank you forjoining us. now, give me your assessment of where we are right now in terms of food prices, because it's three years since the war in ukraine. that pushed up global prices, didn't it? the un world food price index now at its highest level in 19 months. what is going on when it comes to how much we pay for our food? prices are quite a bit lower than they were back in 2022, just after the ukraine and russia war. since then, prices have steadily been coming down and we're at this point now where prices are at three— to four—year lows. the reason for this is literally because of the high prices that we had two years ago. that high price incentivised a huge amount of area expansion, husbandry and basically farms around the world were highly incentivised to look after their crops and plant as much as they could. so today we're in a much more comfortable situation in terms of supply.

demand is pretty decent, so with the combination of high prices and decent—ish weather, we saw good crops around the world to the point that stock levels and global inventories around the world are a lot more comfortable, which in turn has allowed prices to normalise to more affordable levels. and when we say normalise, is it exactly that, or is there a danger we might actually get to a point where there's overproduction? this year, we saw a bit of overproduction, certainly in the usa — the stocks of corn, for example, maize, have been very high. when you do have high inventories, the reality is that farmers struggle to sell it.

and when they do struggle to sell it, that means they have to ask for discounts and prices start coming off quite a bit. so does that actually mean cheaper prices for consumers? 0r, on the other hand, might we see that manufacturers and producers will say, "well, it's been a tough few years, "and actually now�*s the chance to recoup some of those losses"? the prices we've been talking about are the wholesale prices at the point of export. at the retail level, the supermarket will buy a loaf of bread or a packet of pasta, which has gone through a whole amount of supply chain. and don't forget, in between then, you've got freight costs, you've got labour costs, you've got rising rental costs, you've got rising interest rate costs. so all those cost pressures have all been growing. i myself, when i go into a supermarket, i will look at the price of bread, which is maybe £1.20, when i know three years ago, three orfour years ago, i could get it for 80p, for example. so some of that's not going to get back to the low levels in a hurry. i think it's pretty sticky at that point. now, kona, there is a danger, isn't there, that we look at this withjust a broad brush. and actually, if you delve into some of the detail, things like vegetable oil,

butter, the prices for those are still going up. so that reduction in cost is not universal, is it? the agricultural commodity basket consists of various baskets and they all operate with their own unique supply—demand fundamentals. so while i mentioned grains prices having fallen, dairy prices have not fallen as much. for the last few years, the dairy economics have been pretty harsh, in the sense that in the eu, in the usa, dairy farmers have really struggled to maintain the herds�* sizes as they were. so there's been a high incentive to slaughter them. and that, in turn, has led to lower dairy supplies, which, in turn, has caused dairy prices to move up. but then you've also had vegetable oils, palm oil, which is grown out of malaysia and indonesia, but also soybean oil, which is grown out of the usa. and in the case of palm oil, number one, there was erratic rainfall in southeast asia, which might have impacted some of the yields. secondly, the stocks of palm oil globally have been falling because countries like indonesia, which is one of the largest exporters of palm oil, are using more of that palm oil

for their biodiesel programme — for their automotive industry — which means they have less pure palm oil to sell on the world market for food consumption. let me talk to you specifically about cocoa and coffee, because we had all those headlines recently that coffee now at its most expensive in nearly 50 years. why are we seeing these record prices? and when does it start to shape behaviour, when it gets so expensive, people think, "actually, ijust "can't afford to buy this any more"? what's been happening in coffee is a complete collapse in the supply—demand balance. the supply has been hindered by extreme droughts in two of the major producing regions — the first one being vietnam, which produces robusta, the more bitter—tasting coffee, and brazil produces arabica, which is the milder—tasting coffee. their crops have been decimated at a time when consumption of coffee is pretty inelastic.

people might think twice before they buy another car, but they won't think twice about enjoying another cup of coffee. eventually, when that cost does go up at the retail level, i don't know necessarily whether consumption will fall enough to address that supply—demand imbalance, because it's very inelastic. when you look at 2025, given the threat of things like trade wars, tariffs, protectionism, what does that mean for the price of food? i think agricultural commodities, generally speaking, have quite a lot of influence, both in terms of world inflation, but also world macro evolutions have an impact on the food. so with donald trump becoming the next president of the usa, he has promised tariffs and potential trade wars with china and the eu, canada and mexico, which would ultimately have a direct impact on how much the usa is allowed to import and export. in terms of food commodities,

usa is a massive exporter of corn and soybeans, and also wheat. 0n the other hand, trade wars could potentially damage economic growth, so gdp could get impacted, which could also hurt demand in terms of overall food consumption. and thirdly, another impact that we're seeing from a potential donald trump election is the fact that we think the us dollar could strengthen. a lot of his policies are highly inflationary. a stronger dollar typically would mean lower prices for agricultural commodities because they're denominated in dollars. so you could actually end up seeing prices of corn, wheat, soybeans all actually fall in dollar terms. so, actually, that sounds like prices overall due to geopolitics could actually be...

there's more risk for it to fall rather than rise in 2025. kona haque, thank you for being with us on the programme. thank you so much. so that's the big picture and the state of the global economy. but what about the billions of individuals who make up the global workforce? it's that time of year when many of us might think about our own economic prospects and will start to look for a new job. so what can we expect from the world of work in 2025? i've been talking to the boss of one of the world's biggest recruitment firms — it's the netherlands—based randstad. and it helps about 2 million people every year find a newjob. sander van �*t noordende, really good to have you on the programme. thank you for being with us. and talk to me about the jobs market right now, because we look around the world and the economies are slowly recovering from the pandemic, some quicker than others. and we can often see that in the jobs market. give me your assessment of where we are right now

and what the jobs market looks like. i would say, ben, thejob market is a little bit stuck at this point in time. i mean, thejob openings have come down. the hiring rate is at the same level as ten years ago. the quit rates are back to pre—covid levels and the lay—off rate has also been very low. so i would say it's sort of stuck in where we are. we need a bit more dynamism in the place, so to speak. what does that dynamism look like? what is dynamism in the jobs market? well, that comes from economic growth. if the economy is doing well, businesses are growing, they start hiring. you know, people see interesting opportunities and you just start...seeing people moving around. so many bosses that we talk to on this programme tell us, though, that they still struggle to get the right people, the right people with the right skills in the right place. that has been something that was exacerbated by the pandemic. but are we still facing a skills shortage in key industries? yeah, talent is scarce. and that is a given for the foreseeable future because it's all about the demographics —

in the western markets, at least, it is — but also in asia and japan and china. it's all about demographics. what are we looking for? what are we short of? i would say technology — people working with people, ie, in health care, in social work, in education. in government in general, there has been a big job growth. those would be the hot areas, i would say. given that firms simply can't get the right staff, does that mean that wages are going up? they're having to pay more and more and more to get the right people? yeah. so wage inflation has been an interesting phenomenon over the past couple of years. it's been quite high. it's quite persistent. this year, in the us, for instance, it's still going to be around 4%. in some western european countries,

it's even higher than that. i think there's two factors there. there's the talent scarcity, but there's also, of course, the inflation. and, you know, people demanding to get more for the work they do. and for business, that means greater cost. can they afford it right now? well, they have to pass that on to their customers, which of course then generates more inflation, which is not good. so the central banks stepping in in the past to increase the rates and cooling that down, i think, has worked. we'll see how it goes going forward. is it fair to say that wages are still the overwhelming driver of employment, that people are simply seeking the job with the most pay? or are we finally at a point where it's about a bit more of a wholesome thing — that it's about quality of job, work—life balance. it's about accessibility. it's about career progression. what are your clients telling you when they come to you and say, "look, i'm looking for a job, "but these are the factors now that "will determine whether i take that one or that one"? right. well, ben, it depends very much on where you are in the job market. if you are in the unskilled labour part of thejob market, you know, a dollar more per hour is a big, big deal. so $16 per hour versus $15 per hour.

that makes people move around. if you are making more, or you're a knowledge worker, it's increasingly about what i would call the a—b—c. it's about, what's your ambition? or are you more for balance? or are you looking for connection in the workplace? those elements are really important. of course, pay needs to be competitive always, but it's definitely not the only thing out there. our ability to work for an organisation anywhere in the world is meaning that, you know, our potential jobs market is now global. give me your assessment of where jobs are being created right now. and does that tie in hand—in—hand with the state of that economy? or is it still that the skills shortage really skews that equation? well, in terms of industries, it's, as i said, technology, it is... a lot of it is in government and health care. in terms of geographies, i would say india is definitely a country that's booming these days. it's growing very rapidly. they have a great skill base. there are many companies from europe

and the us building their global capability centres there. so in terms of sheer so in terms of sheer numbers ofjob creation, numbers ofjob creation, i would point to india. i would point to india. is that purely based on cost? is that purely based on cost? i would say it is based on capability primarily. right. the base of knowledge and capability in india in terms of technology and business process outsourcing is just unparalleled in the world. yes, it may be more cost—effective, but that's definitely not the only driver. and we know that donald trump likes to be bullish when he talks about the economy and what his presidency will deliverfor the us — a real sense of optimism from him about the future for the us economy, in stark contrast to what, perhaps, we're seeing in europe from some european leaders. what does optimism mean in a jobs market? because it strikes me that optimism is what will determine whether bosses will hire. if they think things are going to get better, they're going to need the people. does that translate directly into recruitment? you are absolutely right, ben. it's all about confidence — confidence in where the economy

is going, confidence in terms of where regulation is going, confidence in terms of the demand in the market. all of that brings confidence, and confidence gives the courage to invest and invest in infrastructure or invest in people, which is hiring. so, absolutely right. and if someone�*s looking for a job in 2025, what's the best bit of advice you might have for them right now to get thatjob? i would say go for a job that you're good at and that you enjoy doing, because if you're good at it and you enjoy doing it, you will get better at it and you will get even... you will enjoy it even more. and if you're a recruiter or an organisation trying to source staff — specific skills — how do they go about it this year? skills, technical skills is always important, but what we see also with the emergence of ai is the softer skills getting more important. are you curious about how the world works? how resourceful are you? how good are you at collaborating? do you get stuff done? that part of the equation becomes increasingly important because the knowledge stuff, you can get from technology, almost.

sander van �*t noordende, really good to have of a breeze and a milder you on the programme this week. thank you for being with us. thank you very much, ben. great to be here. that's all for this week. you can keep up—to—date with the latest on the global economy on the bbc news website and on the smartphone app. but that's all from us this week. we'll see you very soon. bye— bye. hello there. as we push into part two of the weekend, it looks like we should see that fog issue lifting. that's because the stagnant air associated with the area of high pressure is pulling away into the near continent, and we're picking up a fresher westerly breeze through sunday. that should help disperse the clouds to give more sunny spells. but it will stay unsettled across scotland, with this weather front bringing persistent rain. you'll see more isobars on the charts for sunday, so that breeze will be strong, especially for the northern half of the country.

here, it stays cloudy and wet pretty much all day, but southern scotland, northern ireland, large parts of england and wales will see the sunshine breaking through as we head into the afternoon. so a grey start and then a brighter afternoon. temperatures still in single digits across the south—east, a bit milderfurther north — up to around 11 or 12 degrees in central/southern scotland. as we head through sunday night, it stays wet across the northern half of scotland. some cold air engaging the system could turn some of that rain into snow over the hills across northern scotland, so a real wintry mix there. but elsewhere, further south, it'll be dry with clear spells. but throughout monday into new year's eve, with further rain and hill snow across scotland, we're likely to see some travel issues. it could be bringing some localised flooding to places, so stay tuned to the forecast to keep up to date with all the weather forecasts and head online to check out all the latest weather warnings. this is the picture, then, for monday. we've got low pressure to the north of the uk, active weather front across scotland, bringing heavy rain, further hill snow here. could see some showers pushing into northern and western england and wales, but i think much of england and wales will see the sunshine and stay largely dry throughout the day on monday, but more

and elon musk broadens his political influence beyond the us, endorsing germany's far—right afd party in the run up to february elections. hello, i'm carl nasman. welcome to the programme. we start off in moscow, where russia's president vladimir putin apologised to the leader of azerbaijan over what he called the "tragic incident" involving a passenger plane which crashed, killing 38 people on wednesday. he acknowledged that russia's air defences were "active" at the time but stopped short of saying his country was responsible. there's speculation that the azerbaijan airlines plane came underfire from russian air defence systems as it tried to land in the southern russian city of grozny. it later diverted to aktau airport in kazakhstan, where it crashed. 0ur russia editor steve rosenberg has more

on the apology from moscow.