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tv   Path to the Presidency  BBC News  December 30, 2024 11:30pm-11:59pm GMT

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this is bbc news. we'll have the headlines for you at the top of the hour, which is straight after this programme. this is not the 12 days of christmas. this is the 12 months of us politics. you are wearing a very christmassy outfit. i am, and i can make it more christmassy, look. belljingles. i've got my little elf hat. i don't know, it's got a bell, though. maybe that's. .. it's a little distracting. is it too noisy for serious conversation? we were given the memo, "dress festive", and i look like the grinch because all i have in my closet
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is a green sweater and red earrings. so well done. you look very stylishly christmas, i've gone... let me stick this over here. oh, that's a shame. ok, it's fallen on the floor. that's fine, we'll leave it there. it's the thought that counts. they laugh. exactly. well, festive indeed, here we are. we've made it to the end of the year. a couple of days left to go. this is a good opportunity to look back at the year that we had. yeah, so this is not the 12 days of christmas. this is the 12 months of us politics. how are we going to fit that into one short episode? but we'll give it a go. yeah. ready, set, go. yeah, let's start with january, then. it feels like a lifetime ago, but i remember both of us being very cold because it was the caucus season, and that really was the kick—off to this election year, wasn't it? and you were out in iowa. there was this massive cold snap so that people couldn't even make it to iowa for the coverage. but nevertheless, people came out for that caucus to cast their vote, as they did in many other states.
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and it was really important to see those two dominant victories for trump, both in iowa and then in new hampshire where i was, where there was a lot of speculation about how independents would vote. would nikki haley do well? and in the end, we saw donald trump, again, far and away the preferred republican candidate. and that reallyjust set the path for the rest of the year. and, of course, the democrats weren't having a competitive primary process there, although dean phillips did try to run himself, but it was a done deal forjoe biden. and then you had that big event, the state of the union address, joe biden�*s third — and as we know now, final — state of the union address, and his past endeavours had been criticised for being quite staid and, you know, boring. but this was a point — there were already conversations happening quite loudly about his age, his abilities, whether he had the energy and get—up—and—go to fight the contest, and so he came out really quite fiery... now, my predecessor, a former republican president, tells putin, quote, "do whatever the hell you want. "
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bowing down to a russian leader. i think it's outrageous, it's dangerous and it's unacceptable. cheers and applause ..really energised, didn't mention donald trump by name, if you remember. he kept referring to "my predecessor". i think he said that about 13 times — but very squarely kind of aiming all of his remarks against "i'm not donald trump." again, using that line about what a threat to american democracy the re—election of donald trump would be. here's the simple truth — you can't love your country only when you win. democrats were feeling really confident and kind of, "oh, yeah, "maybejoe biden does have this energy and pizazz and can carry us "on through this campaign." well, then you get to super tuesday, and really, it felt like a rubber stamp at that point because we knew that trump had been
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so dominant and we saw him, of course, sweep the super tuesday states. they call it super tuesday for a reason. _ this is a big one. cheers and applause and they tell me, - the pundits and otherwise, that there's neverl been one like this. and forjoe biden as well — i remember i was out in california and we were down at the border as well. and it was so clear that immigration was going to be such a central topic. and you saw on super tuesday, of course, not only those dominant showings for donald trump and joe biden, but some of those questions being raised about, "0k, how are democrats going to take on "this issue of immigration? "how are they going to take on the issue of the economy?" because it was clear also in the polling that you saw from super tuesday that the economy and affordability were really important points to voters who were casting their ballots there, too. exactly. i remember being in pennsylvania ahead of their primary, and that was the number one issue for people — the economy, the affordability of food, how much groceries had gone up. and also the big issue, i remember, being in michigan in april, was around gaza and the position thatjoe biden and the democrats were
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taking in terms of just such fulsome support of israel. what's unfolding is greater than just an issue of elections. this is an issue of morality, or an issue of decency and humanity. but the big issue in april, of course, for donald trump, was the so—called hush money stormy daniels trial beginning in new york. these unprecedented scenes of a past president traipsing in and out of the courthouse each day, standing there, all of these lurid, salacious details. and donald trump really using that to his advantage... i'm here because of crooked joe biden.| ..really setting up, you know, this notion that, "look, the system is against me and i've been president. "what hope do you all have? i'm here fighting for you. "they have to come through me to get to you." and that trial rolled on and on through april and on into may, when we had that amazing moment. and, sumi, icanjust tell you — donald trump
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has been found guilty on count one. donald trump, the first former president to be convicted in a criminal trial. our correspondent, nada tawfik, who did a brilliantjob and has been on this pod, of course, covering this trial that she, in that moment, was reading out the guilty count. guilty on count two, sumi. guilty on count three. let's remember... thatjust stopped me in my tracks. it was an extraordinary moment, wasn't it? and there were people you saw... you heard cheering outside of the court. there were trump supporters who were protesting, and we heard then more and more colourfrom inside the courtroom, that donald trump was very angry, of course, with what he called a miscarriage ofjustice. but as i remember nada saying in that moment, you know, a president — a former president, now president—elect — who had constantly broken with presidential norms, here again was another unprecedented moment in the history of us politics. this is a monumentous
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moment in us politics, a defining one. donald trump continuing to shatter the norms of the nation's highest office. all of those legal issues were going on, but at the same time, so was the campaign. and the big moment injune, arguably the biggest moment of this entire cycle was that first presidential debate betweenjoe biden and donald trump in atlanta. i was down there for that and i remember writing in my notebook the time of 9:14pm eastern time as the moment that everything changed utterly. the... with the covid, excuse me, with dealing with everything we have to do with... look... if... that was the moment when joe biden was answering one question and then just kind of rambled off into something about covid, and a question that was just left hanging in the air, and the split screen with donald trump kind of looking quizzically of, "oh, my gosh, whatjust happened then?" and that was the moment
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that suddenly all of those kind of slightly quieter conversations about, "isjoe biden the best person to be at the top of the ticket "for the democratic party?" suddenly were out loud, were there in colour, in vision, in video, in viral moments, on all of the social media platforms for the world to see, and really spurred this very loud conversation about, is it time forjoe biden to go? and that was something his team kept trying to quiet, those questions, and insist thatjoe biden was in the position to stay in the race. but that took us right intojuly, and, you know, i've talked to many veteran political reporters here in washington and asked them how they experienced july, caitriona, because to me, it felt like months packed into a very, very short timeframe. july was an absolutely extraordinary month in us politics with everything that was happening. and we sometimes forget, with all that happened injuly, one of those key points
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was the fact that the supreme court ruled that donald trump — or presidents, broadly — have immunity for acts that they take as president, and that was seen as a huge victory for the trump camp as well. but that was kind of how that month started off, and, of course, we should say there was also the nato summit here in washington that we were covering. so there were there was this big us political story and this big global event happening as well, butjuly was quite something. yeah, i mean, because you had that chat about should joe biden go, then you had the assassination attempt on donald trump in butler, pennsylvania, on the saturday. gunshots get down, get down, get down, get down! gunshots, screaming on sunday, everyone travelled to milwaukee, wisconsin, for the republican national convention. donald trump turning up there with that bandage on his ear. a very, very successful convention, but all the while that was going on,
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the chatter aboutjoe biden, everyone comes back from milwaukee, trying to rest a little bit over the weekend. and on sunday, joe biden puts this statement out saying he's going to step down and kamala harris will... a couple of days later, it became clear that she was then going to be the top of the ticket for the democratic party. yeah, that was the whiplash few weeks, i think, here in washington. and it wasn't clear immediately, when president biden put out that first statement, whether he was endorsing his vice president to go to the top of the ticket. and then i think briefly, or just shortly after that, he then endorsed her. and the questions that were swirling at that moment were so many, of course. and the fact that we saw that statement come after days of speculation towards the end of the rnc that we went to, of course, in milwaukee, just capped what was truly such an, again, unprecedented week. but kamala harris then being thrust into that position as the presumptive nominee was also really interesting because we had seen, you know, coverage, haven't we, here in washington of how
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she might have been quietly preparing for this moment after that debate performance that president biden had. but there were also calls for some sort of open primary process to vet different democrat candidates. and in the end, it became clear that president biden had endorsed her, and then it was clear that she would have a little over 100 days to run a campaign against a very powerful opponent, a very popular opponent, donald trump. and so that was really the point where it became clear that they had to hit the ground running. and there were so many uses of the phrase, "it's a sprint, it's not a marathon", sumi, weren't there? i mean, usually a presidential campaign is a marathon, but this was a sprint. the first bit of that sprint was racing into august to the democratic national convention. everything had been planned around joe biden being the candidate, and suddenly all of those plans were thrown out and it was about kamala harris — it was about presenting her to the nation. please welcome the democratic nominee for president, -
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vice president of the - united states of america, kamala harris! do you remember all that conversation about "people need to know who she is", even though she'd been vice president for almost four years at that time? you know, there was this sense that people didn't know enough about her, didn't know what her policies were or what her platform was. how is she going to set herself apart from joe biden? who is she going to pick as her vice president? what that decision was going to say about her future moving on from there. and of course, she picked the minnesota governor, tim walz. yeah, exactly. and there had been, as you said, so much speculation around that, and when you get to the convention itself, i don't know how you have it in your memory, caitriona, but it felt like a massive celebration of kamala harris, this kind of crowning moment. and you had hugely popular speeches by the former first lady, michelle obama... if they lie about her, and they will, we've got to... with crowd: ..do something. if we see a bad poll,
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and we will, we got to put down that phone and... with crowd: ..do something. if we start feeling tired, if we start feeling that dread creeping back in, we got to pick ourselves up, throw water on our face, and what? crowd: do something! but there were signs that there were cracks there as well within the democratic coalition — the fact that there were protesters outside of the convention daily over the biden—harris administration's israel policy and calls for a ceasefire, and there were questions there. you know, i remember i went to a rally that kamala harris had in august. we were both getting out to rallies at that point, and i was out in detroit, and i remember a few people who showed up there at that rally, saying, "look, i'm not convinced that she's the best candidate. "i'm here to find out more about her." to your point, precisely, that was one of the big questions, and also to see what this momentum, this enthusiasm, is all about. that being said, august, i think — you know, most pundits certainly agree — was a very strong month for kamala harris. that first month out of the gate, you saw those
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numbers immediately even out with donald trump, where it became clear that she was able to pull even with him in a way that it wasn't possible to that point forjoe biden to do. but again, she had this bump, kind of, after replacing joe biden at the top of the ticket and the convention and everything. and then there was a plateau, and that was never really built upon, insofar as we can, you know, put truck on how the polling measures voters, and there was all that chat about there being, you know, a silent majority, potentially, for kamala harris this time around, as there had been for donald trump in 2016. but i think the warning signs were also there as well in that she kind of, you know, got this lift, but then as people got to know her and saw her more and she finally did an interview... on day one, it's going to be about, one, implementing my plan for what i call an opportunity economy... of course, there was that big debate, wasn't there, about weeks and weeks
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going by, and she had yet to do herfirst media interview, which donald trump, who does so many media interviews, was able to kind of really capitalise and say, "oh, what are you afraid of," you know, "taking questions about what you stand for? "what do you stand for?" and, you know, he's immediately giving her nicknames and just really... i mean, he had to shift his approach as well. he was running against a person that he thought was kind of old and not fit for office, and suddenly he was running against this much younger woman. and you could see the narrative shifting in the trump camp as well. they had built their entire campaign to run againstjoe biden — the messaging of sleepyjoe, of someone who is asleep at the wheel and has, as they had said, run the country into the ground. well, now they had to attach all of president biden�*s records solely to kamala harris. so that pivot was happening in real time as we were watching it, and you could see some frustration from donald trump as well. he felt that kamala harris was getting so much media attention — of course,
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with the convention, but, you know, we covered the republican national convention wall to wall, well, we did so for the democratic national convention as well. but for donald trump, there was frustration you could see in his posts on truth social at that time, that he felt kamala harris was getting a free ride with very positive media coverage, and that the fact that she had reset the race was something that they hadn't anticipated and he wasn't happy about. but again, they worked to then attach president biden�*s record to kamala harris. remember, there were different strategies at that time, wasn't there? how should they paint kamala harris — as a radical left liberal? should they paint her as someone who is responsible for president biden�*s policies? should they paint her as someone who is, you know, a west coast elite? well, all of those ended up being part of the messaging, didn't they? yeah, and donald trump tried to land those punches on her at all times, and she really leaned heavily into that notion of, "oh, well, i'm a former prosecutor" — of course, the former attorney generalfrom california — "i know guys like donald trump."
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and she was really leaning hard on that issue of he is a convicted felon, back to those legal issues that he had seen earlier in the summer. but that took us to the very big moment in september. that's right — the first and only presidential debate between kamala harris and donald trump in philadelphia. i was there and there was so much media attention, of course, because everyone wanted to see how these two would fare facing off against each other. questions about, would donald trump be aggressive and interrupt her? would kamala harris be able to stand her own? and i remember very clearly, you know, the first 10 or 15 minutes of the debate felt fairly even, but i decided i wanted to take a very quick break as we were sitting there in that press file room, just to grab a coffee as i could hear the debate going on. and it was that very moment where kamala harris, if you remember, said... people start leaving his rallies early out of exhaustion and boredom. there was kind of this audible gasp or murmur in the room
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because it was very clear what she was trying to do there, which was to goad president trump. and then you had that viral moment, which we all know well. in springfield, - they're eating the dogs. the people that came in, they're eating the cats. l that laugh and kind of quizzical look on kamala harris�*s face, that that was one of the viral moments of that debate. exactly. and the mayor of springfield, ohio, coming out and all the authorities saying, "we have had absolutely "no reports of anything like this happening here." but it was, you know, you kind of... talking about it now, you kind of forget, don't you, some of these things that have happened throughout the year? and they were only a few months ago and, you know, that debate was a key point. then we got to october, and of course we had the vice—presidential debate betweenjd vance and tim walz in new york — i was there at that. and, you know, there were very high expectations. i mean, it's a vice—presidential debate — it's not likely going to shift voters' minds unless you have a bad day at the office. and it was generally
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kind of perceived that tim walz had had a bad day at the office, even though he was the far more experienced politician — seven—term congressman, two—term governor... all i said on this was, is i got there that summer and misspoke on this. so i willjust... that's what i've said. ..whereasjd vance came across as the more sort of in control and the more statesman—like. look, i think- what tim said just doesn't pass the smell test. for three years, kamala harris went out bragging _ that she was going to undo i donald trump's border policy. she did exactly that. we had a record number of illegal crossings... i at that point, we were just rolling thick and fast towards the election day on november 5th, those last bits of polling coming out, and it was still looking very much as this was a dead heat. there was very little to separate the candidates, particularly in those swing states that matter. but of course, there's always the margin of error, sumi,
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as you and i were saying — every time we were talking about these polls that a margin of error of up to 3% or 4% actually means one person could be 6% or 8% ahead of the other. and, you know, heading into that election day, then, we had that poll from iowa, didn't we? the fateful poll that put kamala harris far ahead of donald trump, and it suddenly felt that, like, "oh, what's going to happen here?" no—one felt they could really call the result. i remember, i think we said ad nauseam in those weeks leading up to the actual election day, "it is too close to call, but" — as you said — "we have to keep in mind that margin of error." but, you know, you and i had been out on the road speaking to voters, and i think what was becoming increasingly clear to us in speaking to voters is that people really were not happy with the direction the country was going in. it was the prices of groceries and gas. it was the southern border. it was other issues — culture issues — as well. and, you know, looking at what voters were telling us
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and the fact that the polls were so tight, it was, i think, also clear to both of us that we could see a somewhat decisive victory for either candidate. but from the voices we were hearing on the ground — also in pennsylvania, you know, the critical state of pennsylvania — that many people seem to be leaning towards what they saw as a change, and they didn't see kamala harris as the change candidate. they saw her carrying the mantle ofjoe biden�*s presidency. that's one. and then, of course, as you've said on this podcast as well, donald trump was still very popular among many people. that was something we were hearing on the road as well. that's it, i mean, it was less about how did kamala harris lose this election and more about what a great victory it was for donald trump that, despite everything that had happened, people still wanted him as president, still thought that he, of all americans, is the best person for the job to lead them forward, and that's what we saw on the election night.
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and donald trump, of course, holding that rally in mar—a—lago, claiming victory before the polls kind of had all been called, but he could see the direction that things were moving in and, you know, had that victory party and that ended up, of course, being the outcome. at this point, we can predict donald trump will be the 47th president of the united states, winning what had been expected, of course, to be a razor tight and historic race, and it has been just that. since then, we've then swept through november and a number of, you know, controversial picks for his various cabinet positions and we had a bit of a lull through thanksgiving. but i think what's been interesting to see, again, caitriona — and i know you know from covering the first trump administration as well — is just how quickly news moves with donald trump and how quickly the attention has shifted away from president biden — who is, of course, still president for the few weeks that
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are left now in his term — but very much switched to the president—elect and his picks for secretary of state, his pick for attorney general, matt gaetz. that was an entire news cycle within a week or so of this pick that many saw as not a good pick, even within the republican party, because of matt gaetz�*s legal woes, and then we saw him drop out. and of course, questions asked about robert f kenneder for health and human services secretary, tulsi gabbard for the director of national intelligence — all of this has just come fast and thick, as you said, since election day, and i think that gives us an indication of what the start of next year is going to be like. and, indeed, december has been marked by daily, almost, posts from donald trump on truth social, appointing or nominating people for cabinet positions, but also for ambassadors. i mean, ifeel like he's nominated far more ambassadors than almost any other president had at this time. that's what it feels
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like, anyway. but i think it's a sign that we're seeing a much more organised and a much more efficient administration, bringing that benefit of having been there, done that for those four years, four years ago. and, you know, i think that's a marker of what we're likely to see injanuary. that brings us to the end of the ear! , i don't know how we managed to do that, get through the year so quickly, when it felt like five years, but, yeah. it's been...it�*s been quite the year, and certainly, you know, the path to the presidency continues. we're going to be covering the first few weeks of january as we head towards inauguration and donald trump's first day in office, his many priorities and how this country and the world will change with him back in the white house. so stay tuned for that. they laugh i'll see ya next year, sumi! see you next year. happy holidays, everyone. you too. bye.—
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hello there. there's going to be a lot of wet, windy and cold weather to come over the new year, but the focus today remains on this amber rain warning that we have from the met office. and within this area, there are already a number of severe flood warnings on rivers. it's been very wet in scotland, some snow melt adding to that as well. the rain turns more showery in mainland scotland. some wetter weather heads to the northern isles with snow in shetland, and this band of rain clears through southern scotland, northern ireland into england and wales. to the south it's dry. windier day though, particularly across this part of the country, but it is a south—westerly wind so it's lifting the temperatures to 11—12 degrees, except in the far north of scotland, where it's going to stay cold here. now, if you are going to be celebrating new year in wales and northern england, there's a good chance you're going to have some wet weather. that rain will be heavy over the hills and it may well lead to some flooding as well. that band of rain is going to move
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southwards on new year's day, but on it and just ahead of it, it's going to be very windy. and then to the north, following the rain, snow and ice continues across northern scotland and a wintry mix of rain and hill snow moves down across northern ireland, southern scotland, eventually into northern england as things get colder. temperatures are going to be dropping through the day for most of us, the last of any mild air is in the far south east of england, where we end the day wet and windy. that weather front, then, does move away, and then we chase our weather all the way up to the north. it's a north to northwesterly wind that's coming down, and that's going to bring cold air across the whole of the country. and by the time we get to thursday morning, there'll be a widespread frost this time. there could be some icy patches from earlier showers to most of the snow showers will continue to affect northern parts of scotland. there could be one or two wintry showers for northern ireland, getting close to these north sea coasts, but for large parts of the country it will be dry on thursday. and it'll be sunny as well,
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but it is going to feel an awful lot colder. we've got temperatures typically only 3—5 degrees. at least it's not that windy and the winds will be a bit lighter, i think, heading into friday, but it's still cold air. widespread frost, some icy patches, a few more wintry showers for northern ireland over the irish sea near some north sea coasts, and most of the snow falling in northern scotland. but, again, it is going to be cold after that frosty start — highs of 3—5 celsius.
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as the anxious wait continues, for the recovery of their loved ones. i'm helena humphrey. glad you could join me. a state funeral will be held for former us presidentjimmy carter on the 9th of january at the washington national cathedral as part of a national day of mourning for america's longest living president. mr carter, the georgia peanut farmer turned naval officer served as a one—term president from 1977 to 1981. he would later go on to expand his legacy after his presidency as a leading voice for peace around the world, being awarded the nobel peace prize in 2002. he died on sunday at 100 years old. and world leaders have been paying their tributes — including presidentjoe biden and president—elect donald trump, with biden saying that mr carter,
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"embodied the very best of america".

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