tv Path to the Presidency BBC News January 3, 2025 11:30pm-11:58pm GMT
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how did you guys spend your new years, ringing in the new year? well, i had christmas off, and then they said come in to work for some easy shifts with some filled back—half hours. and then all hell broke loose yesterday, in new orleans, of course — some tragic circumstances there. and so we were rolling all the way through. so my entire afternoon i had one loo break. i was on air for...five hours, straight? um, as it all unfolded. so we've been busy, busy this side. it also has been a reminder — i don't know, christian, for you, you know, with the coverage yesterday as well — of how this is going to really be something that impacts the incoming trump administration, looking at national security and how islamic state inspired attacks or linked attacks, perhaps, is something that they're going to have to look at. you know, ken mccallum, the head of mi5 on this side, has talked about this lone wolf threat here, in fact, a couple of months ago.
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and it's something we face persistently for many years, of course. and i think christopher wray, the director of the fbi, has had similar conversations with congress, they are particularly worried about this isis—inspired threat. and i say inspired because this is a very different approach here, isn't it, between isis—inspired, which is someone sitting at home watching videos, watching propaganda, who, uh, is... becomes more extreme through what he's watching from maybe, perhaps as well coverage of of gaza and things in the middle east to to actually something being directed from overseas, somebody travelling into the country. and so i think what will concern authorities in america is that we have a situation here where us citizens — someone who's a military veteran, eight years active service, apparently had an honourable discharge — his life has sort of collapsed. there's been a divorce, there was a dui in north carolina, i think.
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and then you get to this point and there's obviously a period of time between his divorce and what happened in new orleans that they will be poring over, trying to fully understand it. but from my perspective over here in europe, it's... it is something that we have seen many, many times. and, you know, i've seen also the conversation here in the us. we're seeing some of the republican senators say, look, this is a sign that, you know, senators and congress need to come together and confirm donald trump's incoming national security team. that, of course, includes people who are pretty controversial, courtney, like pete hegseth for defence secretary, tulsi gabbard, former congresswoman, for director of national intelligence. i mean, how much traction do you think something like that would have? before we get to the nominations, i think it's important to point out we did hear from both the president and incoming president yesterday, which i think was sort of a glaring example of how this transition period has been going. you know, we heard from trump first.
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we heard him, you know, sort of falsely suggest that a migrant was behind the attack before we had any of the full details. he really leaned into some of the campaign rhetoric around, you know, he's used, about criminals coming into the country and overtaking the country. biden we heard from much later in the day. we did get a statement from him that was focussed on the victims. and then he came out, of course, in the evening, after spending the day with his national security team, being briefed on all of the details that were available, speaking to the press about the incident. and i think that sort of... that sort of split screen, uh, kind of underlines, you know, how he's handled this transition, which is he's really let donald trump sort of step
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into these moments of, of national crisis, right? and, and be really vocal while he takes a sort of back—seat approach. which, of course, is always awkward for an outgoing president, but i think, um, it's been... it's... he's all but ceded the presidency to, to donald trump who, while he kind of focuses on more personal legacy achievements in these sort of final weeks of his of his career. why do you think that is, courtney? because, you know, president obama used to say one president at a time, right? and that was something important for the transition. but president biden has been looking a bit at his legacy, but there were important issues that he wanted to, actually, also get off his agenda before leaving office. yeah, i mean, he you know... look, he did, you know, broker the ceasefire in lebanon. gaza has remained out of reach.
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um, and it's, you know, you mentioned that obama said one president at a time. it was not only obama. nixon said it, bill clinton said it when he was incoming as well as outgoing. this is something that's always been a norm of the transition period. but donald trump is not waiting for that handover, you kno — for that handover, you know — he's making policy pronouncements, he's holding court with world leaders at mar—a—lago in a way that previous presidents, incoming presidents haven't haven't done much of that, right? incoming presidents haven't done much of that, right? and so there's always this awkwardness with foreign policy where you have the incoming president trying to set the tone, you know, backchannel a bit. right? but biden has has really sort of stepped, you know, out of the spotlight and allowed this vacuum in messaging both for, you know, the incoming administration — talking about, you know, i think democrats i've spoken to would prefer him to be a bit more
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vocal about some of these nominees that donald trump is putting forth, as you mentioned, for national security, which is pretty important. but also for his own party — there's a vacuum in messaging, as you know, some of this infighting is going on, and it really is, you know, biden has sort of turned inward at a moment where i think a lot of people, after four years of hearing him proclaim donald trump as a threat to democracy, are expecting him to speak up. and yeah, i wonder what you both think about the initial messaging yesterday from donald trump, because obviously he leapt straight in talking about this is someone who came across the border, would appear to me was repeating things he'd heard on cable news. it almost seemed to me as if he was speaking as a, as a, as a candidate, as someone who was campaigning rather than the president—elect who now has to govern. but that's also, in a way, always been donald trump's style, right? you know, the last four years
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of president biden�*s administration has also been the entire time, a campaign for donald trump as well. and when he entered the white house for his first term, he never stopped campaigning. that seems to be often a part of his messaging, and it's interesting to see that he doubled down on that message on thursday morning — as i said, we're taping on thursday morning — again to say, you know, open borders and immigration have led to this terrible crime. of course, you know, there are some conflicting numbers on immigration and crime. you know, we could dive into that. but the point to be made in this case is, of course, that the attacker was a us citizen, an army veteran, and so there isn't a link there. and of course, some of that misinformation spread wild on x and on social media, as you pointed out, courtney, in the initial hours. if there's one thing we've learned about donald trump... we've learned many things, but he does prefer to be a candidate, right? he prefers being a candidate over the actualjob of the presidency itself. and, you know, you have to wonder what a second term looks
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like when you don't have some of these sort of republican institutionalists who were with him in his first first term who are no longer there. when you have elon musk, sort of...this sort of external, um, influence on him, um, you know, and posting about some of some of this misinformation online. i mean, ithink, you know, it does speak to how he plans to take office again. and i think we'll have to see what we hear from him in the coming days as this, as we learn more about this attack as well. christian, how do people there in the uk look at president biden right now? i mean, courtney was talking about the fact that he's kind of turned inward, is he really present on the international stage? i think the 620 was quite an eye—opener for a lot of people. the fact that the group photograph took place and he wasn't there,
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they said there was a clash of diaries, but the fact that he wasn't there... and also the visit, president trump's... president—elect trump's visit to to paris, to the reopening of notre dame. that was quite an eye—opener as well, because the fact that macron had extended the invitation to donald trump and that it wasjoe biden who was going to travel in the president's place. that's, i think, almost in a way, the uk was slightly behind the curve because we... prince william, you remember, was was then dispatched to paris for a meeting with donald trump and it almost seemed it almost felt within british diplomatic circles like, "0h, here we are, we better get going. we'd better get on the front foot." we were sort of planning forjanuary 20th, and then very shortly after that, i think almost the very next day, we got news of this call between keir starmer, sir keir starmer and donald trump, whether or not they thought the french had stolen a march
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and they needed to get in quickly. it certainly had that feel about it. so yeah, i think it's perhaps caught some people by surprise on this side, just howjoe biden has retreated from the world stage, and especially so, i think, when you consider what happened around syria, that that he wasn't really visible, it wasn't really the united states leading at a time when you would expect a us president, a commander in chief, to be there and to be very much visible. i, i mean, the notre dame thing was, was startling just because, i mean, this is a catholic president who very much leans on his faith, right? and to have this moment on the world stage, you know, with the french president where you have donald trump talking to zelensky, talking to macron, i mean, it just... and it was the same weekend. syria was the same weekend. and i think it was a whole day before we heard from biden about syria. again, it was another one of these sort of split—screen moments.
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and, you know, you just have donald trump making proclamations about greenland and the panama canal and, you know, causing a crisis of confidence in canada, might i add, with his threat of tariffs and, you know, the whole, um, you know, dilemma that justin trudeau was in, it'sjust... it's truly, we're at a point where he's sort of ceded this his waning weeks, which is, you know, winding down his career as well. i mean, we will see him. he is going to rome next week to visit the pope for one last time and meet with the italian president. but again, these trips, as you mentioned, christian, they've just been so muted. where he is on the world stage, he barely interacts with press. he hasn't held a press conference on any of them. and we still haven't had a press conference post—election that previous presidents have done. yeah, that's such an important point. and christian, to your point as well, of, you know, how people are looking at things in the uk.
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i mean, i, you know, have been obviously following german news closely as they're set to hold an election in february as well, and the involvement of elon musk in not only donald trump's transition, but now, of course, in german politics, where he's endorsed the far—right party, the afd there. he wrote an op—ed in in one of the major newspapers there, and there are real questions being asked about who is leading the transition, who is leading president trump and what impact they will have on them. who to look to, you know, should those links be made then to elon musk and president trump? and who are those conversations being had with? but, you know, reminds me of in the first term, you know, there was obviously a sense of having to curry favour a bit with then—president trump and now with president—elect trump. there are a few members of the team — i mean, we can't forget his family as well, donjr who's played an important part in some of the cabinet picks —
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and i a sense, i guess perhaps and a sense, i guess perhaps internationally of understanding that, you know, they can build these ties with president elect trump. but also if someone like elon musk is going to have a big influence on the administration and his policies, that that's going to present a new challenge. you know, eight years ago, we started a programme here called 100 days, and the premise of the programme was that we would look at trumpism in america, but also how it reflected back on the rest of the world. and that feels to me very much where we are right now. obviously, on this side, there is enormous trepidation because of what has been threatened through the campaign, notably the tariffs. obviously, the european economy is not very strong at the moment — notably so the third biggest economy in the world, germany — and 10% tariffs at this moment would be not very good at all. i think there will be an interest in what donald trump said about energy for tariffs. so could the europeans buy more energy to see off tariffs?
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certainly they could, was the capacity there in the us market, but at the moment there isn't. so there's a bit of confusion around that, i think, on this side. but in terms of the politics, i mean, today we've got elon musk, who sits alongside donald trump tweeting about tommy robinson — who was jailed, of course, for running this documentary that was libellous about a syrian refugee, and elon musk saying he needs to be released and that the documentary is worth a watch — so that that row between elon musk and the labour government continues. and on the other side, he's engaging with the afd, talking about sitting down with the leader of afd for a debate on x. so in all the european countries, again, it's that sort of divide—and—rule thing that we saw back in the first term where he's not a multilateralist. he prefers to deal with countries on a one—by—one basis. we've seen the relationship he developed with, uh, you know, with the hungarian leader, with the polish leaders, the eastern bloc, and the way
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that he dealt with brussels. it was a very, very different approach to the multilateral organisations, and the way that he dealt with governments on a bilateral, bipartisan basis. so i think there's going to be much more of that, and certainly, of course, they're going to cosy up more towards the conservatives and more towards those on the right. the one thing i'd just add, is how does this tommy robinson thing complicate things for nigel farage? because he was very much open—arms embracing this approach from elon musk and the money that comes with it. but if he's constantly having to fend off, well, how close is elon musk to tommy robinson, that's going to be a political problem for reform and for nigel farage. yeah, christian, that's a really interesting point. and, you know, even among maga, the maga world here, we are seeing some some cracks there in elon musk�*s influence. and, you know, laura loomer is a far right figure here who has obviously in the past been very controversial.
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she criticised elon musk when he and vivek ramaswamy — remember, the two of them are heading up the new department of government efficiency — talked about the need for h—ib visas here in the us. so bringing in kind of the top talent engineers and that clashes with some of the america first anti—immigration rhetoric that we're seeing from the maga world. so, you know, his position is going to be fascinating to watch. but it brings me, i think, to the point that i've been looking at this week, which is the new congress coming in, the 119th congress. of course, you know, it's going to be very interesting to watch. and i've been thinking about what a challenge it will be, not only for, you know, the gop, also for the democrats. courtney, we talked a bit about the infighting in the last pod that we're seeing there over the post—mortem and what happened in the election. but there are already real questions about whether speaker mike johnson can be re—elected and donald trump, the president—elect, over the holidays, re—endorsed mikejohnson and said he is the right man for the job.
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but it doesn't appear that that necessarily will have enough sway. and we're going to get to the situation, again, where we might not see enough of a gop majority to re—elect mikejohnson. i mean, we remember what that was like last time, where we saw kevin mccarthy need 15 rounds. do we all remember where we were for that? yes. laughter. do we have ever. do we ever. yeah, i mean, i don't think... i don't know what you guys think, but i don't imagine that to be the case for speakerjohnson. he seems to have enough sway within the conference to perhaps close some of the controversies that he has with individual members, or some of the lack of trust that he might have. but, you know, if you think about the very thin majority that republicans will have, at the same time, you have donald trump who came into office this time with a clear mandate — won every swing state, won the popular vote — i wonder if there'll be less of a leash for speakerjohnson this time, to not be able time, to not be able
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to bring his conference or to close to bring his conference or to close ranks behind him because of ranks behind him because of donald trump wanting donald trump wanting to implement his agenda to implement his agenda with his entire team with his entire team and with the loyalists and with the loyalists that he is trying to put in place — that he is trying to put in place — certainly in his cabinet — certainly in his cabinet — that they want to get started right that they want to get started right away because they felt away because they felt limited last time. limited last time. yeah, i mean, look, you're right yeah, i mean, look, you're right in that he won every swing state, in that he won every swing state, you know, he's really leaned you know, he's really leaned into this idea of having a mandate. into this idea of having a mandate. but if we've learned anything from, but if we've learned anything from, um, you know, the budget fight, um, you know, the budget fight, was elected to office on. the spending fight, um, the spending fight, um, there are limits to donald there are limits to donald trump's influence, right? trump's influence, right? and, you know, he doesn't get and, you know, he doesn't get everything he wants, always. everything he wants, always. and his party is going to have and his party is going to have to work hand in glove even though to work hand in glove even though they have complete control they have complete control of washington, to really of washington, to really push through his agenda, push through his agenda, especially on issues that, especially on issues that, you know, is going to really require you know, is going to really require congressional buy—in, right? congressional buy—in, right? on taxes, on immigration, on taxes, on immigration, on these sort of big, on these sort of big,
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meaty items that donald trump meaty items that donald trump was elected to office on. i will say, you know, the thing about the kevin mccarthy saga is you had the matt gaetz piece — which you don't have this time around — that sort of rivalry playing out, you know, within the speakership fight. but i think that johnson certainly has an uphill battle. maybe not the same one that kevin mccarthy faced, but, you know, in trying to keep the conference together, it's going to be it's it's together, it's going to be... it's going to be a challenge for sure. how many can afford to lose? it's just one, right? he can... and you've got the kentucky congressman massie who is a hard no. i think the georgia congressman mccormick is a waverer, so that's two. if others were to split then it
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could get messy tomorrow. and that has implications, doesn't it, for the certifying of the vote on monday. yeah it does. it certainly does. and that's indeed, you know, it could hamstring congress. i mean, again, like it did with kevin mccarthy's speakership. and he was then toppled, of course, a few months later. but it could hamper their ability to get anything done, and that is certainly not the way that donald trump would want to start his term after the inauguration. but at the same time, you know, there will be a lot of pressure on speakerjohnson, but also these individual members — people like chip roy, victoria spartz — to fall in line so that they are able to enact some of the policies that the trump administration and the president—elect himself has said that they really want to see pushed through. but, you know, you mentioned the budget fightjust before the holidays, courtney, and i was speaking to a moderate republican congressman just before that all kicked off, and i asked him, "oh, you know, are you confident that the budget bill will get passed?" and he said to me, "well, let's see who tweets next." and lo and behold, just a few hours later, we saw that message from elon musk criticising the deal. and i really wonder
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the security threat — maybe it's a persistent threat, we don't know yet — does that smooth the way for some of his nominees? does it put an added focus on the vote on friday. does it put an added focus on the vote on friday? did they think, "look, we need to get this done because of the security situation the country is in?" i mean, i think that the republicans certainly will use that reasoning, right? they will say, "this is why it's imperative that we get donald trump's picks through the nomination process as quickly as possible, so we don't have any gaps," right, "we don't have any issues with the transition and national security." you know, whether that actually works, we'll see. and i think at a moment when we have a national crisis like this, certainly it has worked. i mean, from our perspective, looking outwards, inwards, i just wonder going back to the, to the syria issue, whether it
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actually does change a little bit foreign policy, because when trump says, "this is not ourfight." well, it is perhaps america's fight. you know, if you've got a if you've got a resurgent isis group in syria you know, if you've got a, if you've got a resurgent isis group in syria that take advantage of a vacuum — and we've seen this before, of course, in afghanistan — then what does he do with the 100 troops, the 900 troops which are there in syria? how does he engage with syria and afghanistan if it is a threat for the homeland? so i think in all the nominations, and actually in terms of foreign policy, something has shifted quite dramatically yesterday, or at least you would perceive that it should. let's see. i mean, we're going to be watching some of these confirmation hearings in the coming weeks and then, you know, barrelling right towards inauguration. but i guess that's what we have time for. we can, you know, monitor all of this and catch up again in the coming weeks. thanks for having me. see you soon. thanks so much. bye.
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hello. if you have travel plans this weekend, it's probably worth keeping an eye on the weather forecast because wintry weather could cause some quite significant disruption. met office amber warnings have been issued for snow and ice during the weekend, particularly covering parts of wales, the midlands and up into northern england as we head through saturday night and on into sunday. so what's going on? well, cold air has set in across the uk, this cold arctic air sitting in place. and then from the south—west, some milder air tries to make a move. and along the boundary between the two, we have this weather front. as this weather front moves into the cold air, well, it is that that will generate some significant snow for some of us, but also some rain down towards the south as things turn milder.
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saturday morning, though, starting with some fog, especially down towards the south — freezing fog after a cold night. and after that foggy start, with cloud rolling in from the south, i think across some southern parts, it will be quite a grey day. more sunshine for northern england, northern ireland and scotland, although there will be some wintry showers. in fact, some more widespread wet and wintry weather moving across the northern isles. temperatures really struggling. in aberdeen, it may not get above freezing through the afternoon. even further south, highs of 3, 4, 5 degrees. but as we head through saturday evening, that wet weather moves into the south—west of england, maybe some snow over higher ground, but that snow developing more widely but that snow developing more widely as our weather system moves as our weather system moves into wales, the midlands. into wales, the midlands. over some of the highest ground here, we could see 30cm of snow, maybe up to 40cm eventually across the high ground of the pennines — that snowfall moving its way into northern england. but notice what happens down to the south by the end of the night. 12 degrees there in plymouth for sunday morning, some much milder air to the south. and so some of what falls from the sky will be turning back to rain across parts of wales, the midlands. that could give ice for a time.
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further snow, particularly across high ground in northern england, but maybe to low levels for a time. some snow into southern and eastern scotland, perhaps just clipping into the south—east of northern ireland. some big temperature contrast on sunday afternoon — cold in the north, much milder further south. but that mild air in the south is not going to last. as we head into the new week, it is going to turn cold again. we should see a fair bit of sunshine, but we do continue to have the chance for some wintry showers. bye for now.
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thank you forjoining us. republican congressman mikejohnson is re—elected as speaker of the us house of representatives. he will lead the 119th us congress, sworn in friday with the smallest republican majority in nearly a century. because of that narrow majority, mrjohnson could only afford to lose one republican vote for the speakership. he fell short in a first round of voting when three republicans chose members other thanjohnson. but after a closed—door meeting, two switched their vote tojohnson, leading to this moment on the house floor. the honourable mikejohnson of the state of louisiana, having received the majority of the votes cast, is duly elected speaker of the house of representatives for the 119th congress. 218 voters were needed to for mrjohnson to win the speakership. 218 is the number he received. some hard—right republicans were unhappy withjohnson�*s leadership and threatened to prolong the process. but in his acceptance speech,
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