tv Newsnight BBC News January 8, 2025 10:30pm-11:01pm GMT
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into the 21st century. here's andy swiss. it's golf, but not quite as we know it — some of the world's top stars in an indoor arena, thwacking a ball into a 60—foot screen. this is a giant simulator which then recreates where the ball would have landed — ireland's shane lowry the first to try it, phase one of a unique format. once it's near the hole, play switches to a real green, where ludwig aberg showed the 1,500 fans his very real skills. it's all been devised by tiger woods and rory mcilroy to attract new supporters through innovation. players have just a0 seconds for each shot. the simulator means any setting is possible — in this case, seemingly the grand canyon — while the green is rotated for every hole, and underneath it hundreds of tiny motors change its contours.
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borrowing costs for the uk government are at their highest since 2008. are we heading to spending cuts? newsnight hears welfare is top of the list. and multiple devastating fires over thousands of acres in strong winds. california residents say they have never seen anything like it. we will bring you the latest, live. welcome to newsnight, live each weeknight from broadcasting house bringing you interviews and insight. let's show you the live pictures of the fires raging in los angeles. any moment now. at least two people have been killed, dozens more injured, thousands have been forced to flee their homes —
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sadly we cannot bring you the live pictures at the moment but we will a little later because we will be talking to some residents a little later. you may know if you watched the ten o'clock news, these fires have been declared the most destructive in la's history and we also now know that firefighters are running out of water. as i said, we will be live with some residents a little later in the programme. first, we're going to talk about uk government borrowing costs — they are the highest they've been since 2008. they're rising for many countries — it's not only a uk trend. it could, though, have direct consequences for the chancellor rachel reeves, and for voters too, in terms of possible spending cuts on benefits. more from nick on that in a moment and we'll also hear we'll talk to dame harriett baldwin, a conservative mp who's on the treasury select committee and is a former treasury minister. elected injuly, labour mp yuan yang, also on the treasury select committee, and tim farron,
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the former lib dem leader and the party's environment spokesperson. first, though, let's hear from ben chu, our one time economics editor, now two floors down with bbc verify. ben, what's happened? it has been a rough day for the government on the financial markets. let's look at uk ten year borrowing costs, this blue line. as you said, it has reached about 4.8% and that is the highest it has been going right the way back to the financial crisis in 2008. how does this compare to the bond market, the reaction to liz truss�*s mini budget in 2022? we can see it on the chart here. the rise in recent weeks was not as sharp as in 2022 but of course now it is at a higher level thanit course now it is at a higher level than it was back then. so why does this matter? essentially, this blue debt bill. so the rise in this sense the budget last year is estimé blue o this matter? essentially, this blue line determines the rate at which line determines the rate at which the uk government can borrow money the uk government can borrow money and the rate it has to pay on its and the rate it has to pay on its debt bill. so the rise in this sense debt bill. so the rise in this sense
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the budget last year is estimated to the budget last year is estimated to be projected to cost the uk government an extra £10 billion a year by the end of the parliament on its debt bill. don't forget that rachel reeves in her budget gave herself only about £10 billion of headroom against her physical rules. so unless this picture changes, rachel reeves could be faced with a choice of three things. first, either breach her fiscal rules, second, put up taxes again, or third, cut public spending, having pledged not to reintroduce austerity. let's listen to what rachel reeves said about the first two of those options in november. i'm not coming back with more borrowing _ i'm not coming back with more borrowing or more taxes and that is why at_ borrowing or more taxes and that is why at this — borrowing or more taxes and that is why at this budget we did wipe the slate clean, to put public finances and public— slate clean, to put public finances and public services on a firm footing — and public services on a firm footing and as a result, we won't
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element of truth in may be some element of truth in that. but we should also be wary of looking at this too much from a uk only lends. look at this red line, this is the us equivalent ten year borrowing cost. you can see that going right back to 2008, there has been quite a lot of movement together with what the uk borrowing costs have been. there has always been quite a lot of spill—over from what happens in us bond markets to uk bond markets and some analysts think that is what is happening now in recent weeks. they have been moving quite closely together in recent weeks. what is happening in the us markets question about donald trump is about to become president. he has very radical plans on tariffs, tax cuts, on cutting immigration. that may all serve to push inflation up and it may be that some of that is spilling over to the uk. but in a sense, it doesn't really matter what is driving the uk borrowing costs, the fact is that blue line going up like that puts a
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real financial headache for rachel reeves and potentially will force on her though is really difficult choices we just mentioned. choices we 'ust mentioned. more from our little choices we just mentioned. more from your little later. _ choices we just mentioned. more from your little later, thank _ choices we just mentioned. more from your little later, thank you, _ choices we just mentioned. more from your little later, thank you, ben. - your little later, thank you, ben. nick, a fiscal headache for rachel reeves and real life consequences by voters as well? that is right and plenty for our panel to chew over. but as you are saying, i am panel to chew over. but as you are saying, iam hearing panel to chew over. but as you are saying, i am hearing top of the list of spending cuts as the welfare budget, the way that it was put to me is the budget is due to do that and it needs to sort of do that, riser and much less dramatic level. there are two dates that are concentrating minds in the treasury at the moment. the first is the second fiscal forecast under this budget we will get from the office for budget responsibility in march and they will make an assessment of how the chancellor is doing on her fiscal rules. the first one, the most important one, the stability rule, what that means is you cannot borrow for day—to—day spending. the
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chancellor said she would meet that rule in 2029—30. there is an element of flexibility because it is then in the future assessed on a rolling three—year basis but in the treasury they know there will be a chart in that report that will tell them how well they are said to be doing heading into 2029. the next one that is concentrating minds is the spending review injune and that is, i am told, the theme of that is cuts, not tax rises. how you deal with the welfare. we had liz kendall, the work and pensions secretary, a white paper called get britain working that talked about young people losing benefits if they do not take up work in the spring. another green paperfrom liz kendall on health and disability reform and what they are talking about is delivering the savings that were identified by the last government but the view in this treasury as they were not credible and liz kendall will put a sort of labour slant on that. the view in the treasury as they are trying to say, look, they are reasonably relaxed about what was happening in the
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markets today. they are talking about global factors. the tories are saying it is as the result of a budget that increased taxes and talking about a marketjudgment that the monetary policy committee will not be bringing interest rates down as fast as they could. a statement from the treasury today, no one should be under any doubt that meeting the fiscal rules is negotiable. and welcome to our mps this evening. yuan yang, thank you for being with us. how will your government potentially some more benefit cuts to voters? it’s potentially some more benefit cuts to voters? �*, ., ., to voters? it's important to say in the budget _ to voters? it's important to say in the budget that _ to voters? it's important to say in the budget that we _ to voters? it's important to say in the budget that we had _ to voters? it's important to say in the budget that we had a - to voters? it's important to say in the budget that we had a couple i to voters? it's important to say in l the budget that we had a couple of months ago, we got the spending and the borrowing of the government under control and there was a long—term plan, together with the rules to show investors that we will have a sustainable approach to the country's finances. that is a huge contrast to the budgets we have seen before. i think the context of the budget and our long—term planning,
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with the economy and the size of the welfare state, making sure it is putting people back into work as well as supporting those who cannot work. �* well as supporting those who cannot work. . , ., ., well as supporting those who cannot work. . ., ., ., ., work. are you not worried at all about the _ work. are you not worried at all about the increasing _ work. are you not worried at all about the increasing these - work. are you not worried at all- about the increasing these borrowing costs? i about the increasing these borrowing costs? ., about the increasing these borrowing costs? . ., ., , _ ., costs? i am not happy about the increase in _ costs? i am not happy about the increase in bond _ costs? i am not happy about the increase in bond deals, - costs? i am not happy about the increase in bond deals, i - costs? i am not happy about the increase in bond deals, i don't i increase in bond deals, i don't think anyone in the government would be but these are day—to—day fluctuations. as you know and as ben described, the uk government's bond deals is quite closely correlated with the us government's bond yields. there was a sell—off in the us markets yesterday, that is followed by a sell—off today. these are day—to—day fluctuations and of course financial journalists will report on them sometimes by the minute. what is important from a government as we have a five year plan that we are looking at the long term of a sustainable economic strategy rather than looking simply at the day—to—day fluctuations in prices. at the day-to-day fluctuations in rices. ., , ., , at the day-to-day fluctuations in rices. . , . , ., , prices. has a budget made things worse? i prices. has a budget made things worse? i don't — prices. has a budget made things worse? i don't think— prices. has a budget made things worse? i don't think so. - prices. has a budget made things worse? i don't think so. in - prices. has a budget made things worse? i don't think so. in my - prices. has a budget made thingsl worse? i don't think so. in my own
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constituency _ worse? i don't think so. in my own constituency in _ worse? i don't think so. in my own constituency in reading, _ worse? i don't think so. in my own constituency in reading, it- worse? i don't think so. in my own constituency in reading, it has - constituency in reading, it has delivered concrete commitments workers need foster we have thousands of people at the university of reading will in effect from the increase in minimum wages. businesses in my area need 14
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