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tv   Business Today  BBC News  January 16, 2025 11:30am-11:46am GMT

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i want to i we nt to start i want to start with the news coming in the last half an hour. from the oil giant bp, which says it will occur to thousands ofjobs and i hid which says it will occur to thousands ofjobs and i bid to cut costs. it says a700 jobs will go, across its global workforce, and 3000 contract role was cut as part of a cost saving drive across the country. bp's shares are down sharply, about 7% over the last year. it is significant because it comes in sharp contrast to what is happening elsewhere. i was in the sector or seeing share prices rise sharply. bp is still struggling with debt associated with the deepwater horizon oil spill, back in 2010, but the problem is still struggling to shake off. that is the latest. if we get any
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more details, we will bring you them. the uk economy returned to growth for the first time in three months, but the expansion was less than expected. the latest growth figures show a stagnant economy, growing atjust0.1% in the month of november. chancellor rachel reeves has reiterated her pledge to go "further and faster" to improve economic growth and boost living standards, declaring it was the government's "number one priority". let's discuss this more now with max shepherd, group economist at yorkshire building society, talk to me about the number, it isjust one number talk to me about the number, it is just one number but it doesn't paint a picture of an economy, in the words of the chancellor, firing on full cylinders. there is a problem, and the growth isn't what we need. , ., , , ., need. yes, the growth is slow, but it is positive, _ need. yes, the growth is slow, but it is positive, so _ need. yes, the growth is slow, but it is positive, so it - need. yes, the growth is slow, but it is positive, so it is - but it is positive, so it is normally i% in november, on the back of two consecutive months of contraction. it is often
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erratic to look at it a monthly. if you think quarterly, we grew 0.7% in the first quarter, 0.a%, stagnant in the third quarter, and we will be stagnant or positive in quarter four. will be stagnant or positive in quarterfour. the will be stagnant or positive in quarter four. the growth will be stagnant or positive in quarterfour. the growth isn't physically strong, it is expected to be stronger next year, so the market thinks about i.a% growth in 2025. although we've had misdiagnosis this year, it is lookalike this year will be better.- this year, it is lookalike this year will be better. talk to me about what — year will be better. talk to me about what the _ year will be better. talk to me about what the chancellor's i about what the chancellor's response might be. she said growth is the number one priority, but at the same time in the last budget laying extra costs on businesses. she is asking businesses to go further to deliver the growth, but she is giving them a lot of extra cost to deal with.— cost to deal with. rachel reeves _ cost to deal with. rachel reeves is _ cost to deal with. rachel reeves is trying - cost to deal with. rachel reeves is trying to - cost to deal with. rachel. reeves is trying to highlight the fiscal responsibility. that is key to make sure we see the
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cost of government borrowing stay in control and then we can see the bank of england are allowed to start reducing interest rates as we get inflation under control. they've made good progress in terms of inflation, so we saw data on one site that showed inflation was 2.5% year—on—year. we are getting closer to the 2% target. that will allow the bank of england to reduce interest rates, helping stimulate the economy in future. ., ~ helping stimulate the economy in future. . ~ ., ., in future. talk to me about euro -e in future. talk to me about eumpe by _ in future. talk to me about eumpe by way _ in future. talk to me about europe by way of— in future. talk to me about i europe by way of comparison. because germany was once the powerhouse economy of the eu, which isn't so. where does the uk fit enough picture? we which isn't so. where does the uk fit enough picture?- uk fit enough picture? we are curowin uk fit enough picture? we are growing stronger _ uk fit enough picture? we are growing stronger than - uk fit enough picture? we are growing stronger than they i uk fit enough picture? we are| growing stronger than they are in europe, and we are expected to grow stronger again coming into 2025. it is looking like we are showing a lot of resilience relative to what is
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happening on the continent. if you think further yonder, the trump policies will impact the eurozone than necessary uk. thank you, mark shepherd from the yorkshire building society. we touched on europe, and let's focus in germany. inflation rose again, coming in at 2.6% in december, up from 2.2%. meanwhile in italy, consumer inflation is just half that, at i.3%. it's an illustration of an uneven picture across europe with some countries struggling more than others. germany is now seen as the most distressed major european economy followed by the uk in second place. that's according to the european distress index for major european nations. let's explore this more now with andrew wilkinson, partner and co—head of weil�*s london restructuring practrice. good to have you here. give me a sense of what is happening. we touched on the uk. europe and particularly germany is in
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and particularly germany is in a difficult position right now. how has it gone from the powerhouse economy to being the one the most distress? that powerhouse economy to being the one the most distress?— one the most distress? that is riuht. one the most distress? that is right- just _ one the most distress? that is right- just to — one the most distress? that is right. just to set _ one the most distress? that is right. just to set the _ one the most distress? that is right. just to set the scene, i right. just to set the scene, we are looking at distress across measuring it against the baseline. is europe and countries seeing more corporate distress than is normal or usual? the story in the index you just put out, including the forecast at the end of 2025 is whereas a few quarters ago there was above—average stress across most of the geography in europe, with germany and the uk kind of leading the pack pretty tied together, that is now not true. germany is a clear outlier in terms of elevated corporate stress. and the reason for that other sectors,
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which are experiencing corporate distress, industrials, real estate and retail. germany's economy is heavy on industrials, pretty heavy on industrials, pretty heavy on industrials, pretty heavy on real estate, slightly less so on retail. and the things that the uk see our strengths, for example, services industry, they've not been affected by the factors triggering the distress in industrials. forthe triggering the distress in industrials. for the industrial story, high interest rates, inflation, input costs, export issues, the war in ukraine has clearly hit the german economy badly in terms of dislocation from sources of energy supply. and with the real estate sector issues, we see high levels of corporate stress in germany. looking forward, i'm afraid although for the uk, we think distress will improve a bit in the uk, but we don't think it is likely to be the case in
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germany. 0ur is likely to be the case in germany. our best case is corporate distress will grow in germany and remain at a higher, elevated level by year—round. what are you defining as distress and how does it manifest will the economy? what are turned into _ manifest will the economy? what are turned into eventually - are turned into eventually defaults. we track the ups and downs in the index against corporate fault. so the end product of a rise in corporate distress means there will be more companies defaulting on their borrowing and have to either liquidate, go through restructuring processes or something else to fix the default. and we are seeing, as we thought we would, higher default rates across europe. and then what goes into the indexis and then what goes into the index is everything. we look at 3750 companies across europe, we analyse lots of different data to produce a matrix,
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analyse all those factors and try to measure companies getting more or less distress. and it covers profitability, investment metrics, where does the debt trade go?— the debt trade go? andrew, alwa s the debt trade go? andrew, always good _ the debt trade go? andrew, always good to _ the debt trade go? andrew, always good to talk - the debt trade go? andrew, always good to talk to i the debt trade go? andrew, always good to talk to you. | always good to talk to you. andrew wilkinson the with the latest. the outgoing us treasury secretary — janet yellen — has warned that donald trump's plans to tax imports will raise prices for us consumers. mr trump has proposed a 10% tariff on all imports — rising to 25% on goods from canada and mexico until they clamp down on drugs and migrants coming into the us. he's also threatened a 60% tariff on all chinese goods. michelle fleury has been speaking to the deputy director of the national economic council under the last trump administration. he told her the president—elect is serious about tariffs — and could move very fast once he returns to the oval office next week. so in the first term, and i was part of these debates, we had a lot
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of deliberations about tariffs and whether they should be used, how they should be used, what statute should be used. and today we're in a position where it seems to be determined they're going to be used. so there's not a lot of deliberation about that. it's, you know, how often and to what degree are they going to be used? there's been lots of tariff talk from donald trump. he's threatened to impose a universal tariff from day one. he's talked tough on china, mexico and canada. and then this week, we've seen reports that his administration will take a gradual approach. so what should we expect on the tariff front? they're going to implement tariffs. and the idea that there's so many ideas out there floating among his senior team about how they're going to do it, makes me believe that the universal tariff is more and more likely. you're not hearing deliberation about, are we going to do this? this is how are we going to do it, and what form will it take? and to me, that is a pretty big indicator that the universal tariff is probable in
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the next term. how should foreign governments businesses prepare? what advice do you have for them? for foreign governments? and it is really important to first know your priorities and what really matters. have an agenda. have a plan. understand your stakeholder relationships in the united states and also understanding the legal options, right. not like litigation per se, but if there is an exclusion process, how can you advise your companies to take advantage of it? the taiwanese chip—maker tsmc has seen pre—tax profitsjump 57% in the last quarter of last year, coming in at $11.a billion. it underlines the sustained ai investments by the likes of microsoft and amazon — both are expanding their data centres so fast that they're having to building nuclear reactors to power them. but geopolitical issues could hamper the chip—maker's growth this year as one expert told us. they are political rather than business oriented, because i think there's two sides to that.
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one is china's political ambitions for taiwan. but there's also the fact that we have tsmc as being a huge importer into america. so on the one hand, you've got this political threat. what will china do to taiwan? will it nationalise it? will it keep bring it back into the chinese industry and national industry and also and what about the tariffs that president trump is thinking of bringing in? and that will directly affect tsmc as well. blue 0rigin�*s giant new glenn rocket blasted off from florida a short time ago on its first mission to space. it's an inaugural step into earth's orbit for the space company owned by amazon founder jeff bezos. he's aiming to rival spacex in the satellite launch business. new glenn launched from blue 0rigin�*s launch pad at the cape canaveral space
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force station under cloudy skies on its second attempt this week. secured inside new glenn's payload bay is the first prototype of blue 0rigin�*s blue ring vehicle, a maneuverable spacecraft the company plans to sell to the pentagon and commercial customers. a short time ago the spacex owner elon musk congratulated mr bezos on a successful launch. that is your business news, we will see you for another addition very soon.
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hello from the bbc sport centre. we're starting with the australian open where great britain's emma raducanu has made the third round for the first time in her career. the world number 61 fought back from breaks down in each set and needing treatment for a back injury to beat amanda anisimova 6—3, 7—5.
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up next though, she faces the huge challenge of second seed iga swiatek. i'm going to enjoy playing in a great atmosphere. i think the last two matches i've had, the crowd has been amazing, the support here. i have felt at home. it hasjust support here. i have felt at home. it has just been a support here. i have felt at home. it hasjust been a nice feeling to be part of, so i'm looking forward to going out there and testing my game against the best because ultimately, you play tennis... for more sport, you canjoin the sport website, but i'm handing you back to bbc news. let's go live to the house of commons where we are hearing from david lammy, who is delivering a statement to parliament on the gaza ceasefire.— parliament on the gaza ceasefire. �* ., , ., ceasefire. after months of despair. — ceasefire. after months of despair, there _ ceasefire. after months of despair, there is - ceasefire. after months of despair, there is no i ceasefire. after months of despair, there is no hope. | ceasefire. after months of i despair, there is no hope. a glimmer of light in the
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darkness, a darkness that had

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