translation: this is a terrible deal, and if it will actually - go through, we membersl of otzma yehudit will give letters of resignation. to the prime minister. ifully expect implementation will begin, as we said, on sunday. look, it's not exactly surprising that in a process and a negotiation that has been this challenging and distraught, you may get a loose end. we are going to be discussing the latest on that cease—fire agreement in the middle east with our panel tonight. kezia dugdale, former leader of the scottish labour party, and charles kupchan, former special assistant to barack obama. they will be talking about that and all the other big stories of the day.

and let's just look at some of the other headlines making news today. former bank of canada and bank of england governor mark carney has entered the race to become leader of canada's governing liberal party. earlier this month, prime ministerjustin trudeau announced his intention to resign once a new party leader is selected. improving weather conditions and slower winds across southern california are giving exhausted fire crews some respite, as they continue to try to contain the devestating fires across los angeles. the fires began more than a week ago and have killed at least 25 people. the incoming us national security adviser says president—elect donald trump will find a way to save tiktok before a ban on the app is due to take effect. congressman mike waltz said trump would intervene if the supreme court upholds a law that would ban the platform unless it is sold by the 19th of january. the american film—maker david lynch has died

at the age of 78. he was best known for the surrealist tv series twin peaks and films including mulholland drive and the elephant man. he received three best director oscar nominations and won a lifetime achievement oscar in 2019. the ceasefire agreement in gaza may have been welcomed and celebrated around the world, but it's looking fraught and fragile. a short while ago, israel's far—right national security minister itamar ben—gvir has described it as a terrible deal and threatened to resign from benjamin netanyahu's government if it ratifies the ceasfire agreement. the israeli cabinet delayed a planned vote on approving the deal — israel has accused hamas of reneging on some key parts of the deal and of seeking last—minute concessions.

meanwhile, on the ground in gaza, while the dream of peace may be closer, the reality is that for now, the fighting — and the killing — go on. the hamas—run health ministry in gaza says dozens of palestinians have been killed by missile strikes in the hours since the truce was announced in doha. despite all this, the united states is confident the cease—fire will begin as scheduled this sunday, january 19, the eve of donald trump's inauguration as the next american president. details of the deal have not yet been officially announced, but we can take a look at what's understood to be in it. this ceasefire is expected to happen in three stages. the first stage would last six weeks and see a full and complete ceasefire. some of the hostages in gaza and some palestinian prisoners in israel would be freed.

hamas seized 251 hostages when it attacked israel in october 2023. it's still holding 94 captive, although israel believes that only 60 are still alive. israel is expected to release about 1,000 palestinian prisoners in return for the hostages. during this stage, israeli troops would pull out of "all" populated areas of gaza, according to president biden, while palestinians could also return to their neighbourhoods. there would also be a surge in humanitarian aid deliveries to gaza, with hundreds of lorries allowed in each day. stage two would be "a permanent end to the war." the palestinian official previously said detailed negotiations for the second and third stages would begin on the 16th day of the ceasefire. the remaining living hostages, including men, would be released in return for more palestinian prisoners. of the 1,000 palestinian prisoners israel is thought to have agreed to release overall, about 190 are serving sentences of 15 years or more.

there would also be a full withdrawal of israeli troops from gaza. the third and final stage would involve the reconstruction of gaza, which could take many years. as we said at the beginning, israel's far—right national security minister itamar ben—gvir described the deal as a reward for hamas. he's threatened to resign from the government if the ceasefire is approved. translation: this deal will put an end to all the achievements l that we have managed to accomplish for the state of israel. and more than that, it will not lead to the release of all the hostages. it dooms the fate of the other hostages and will lead to the end of the war, with hamas not being defeated yet, and so the goals of the war have not yet been achieved.

that was itamar ben—gvir giving a statement, threatening to resign. let's speak to jotam confino, the middle east correspondent for the telegraph. thank you very much indeed for being with us. what is your analysis of what that means, that statement from itamar ben—gvir? it was not unexpected, it was not a surprise, but how big a blow for the prime minister benjamin netanyahu is it it does it threatens the agreement, do you think? �* , . threatens the agreement, do you think? 2 . ., , threatens the agreement, do you think? 2 . . , think? it's a really good question. _ think? it's a really good question, because - think? it's a really good i question, because itamar ben—gvir has repeatedly warned that in yahoo he would leave his government if a cease—fire was struck, and earlier today, another far right minister did the same, basically. so netanyahu is now held hostage, metaphorically speaking, but these two far right ministers, and i think that it has... first of all, the fact we are seeing this constant delay when the security cabinet is expected to vote on the cease—fire of course has to do

with the last details that israel is discrete with hamas over but it also has to do with netanyahu really trying to avoid having these two parties leaving his coalition because it would leave him vulnerable, it would leave him vulnerable, it would leave him vulnerable, it would not topple him, but it would leave him very vulnerable. so use now trying to really convince them to stay. i'm not so sure that they're going to go through this, because if they do, they don't really have anywhere else to turn. those two parties very far right and very few other political parties in israel would like to work with them. but netanyahu is not one to risk himself being toppled down the line, so i think we are seeing him buying time right now, and that's what we are seeing the delay also of the security cabinet vote. 50 seeing the delay also of the security cabinet vote. so that has been _ security cabinet vote. so that has been delayed. _ security cabinet vote. so that has been delayed. what - security cabinet vote. so that has been delayed. what is i security cabinet vote. so that | has been delayed. what is the latest on that? when do you think that might happen? could it be tomorrow? could it be over the weekend? 50 it be tomorrow? could it be over the weekend?- it be tomorrow? could it be over the weekend? so we are heafina over the weekend? so we are hearing that _ over the weekend? so we are hearing that tomorrow, - over the weekend? so we are hearing that tomorrow, we i over the weekend? so we are l hearing that tomorrow, we will have the security cabinet vote, and then because of thejewish

high holiday during the week, that will mean that the other vote that will go to the government, that will happen on saturday evening. a lot of people have reacted to this because people are frankly furious with the government now considering shabbat and not going through these books that are crucial, because these hostages every day in gaza, it is a risk to their lives. people are very, very angry that we might see a delay because of the shabbat and we don't even know if it is actually going to happen on saturday evening. we are hearing that the actual cease—fire might only come into force on monday instead of sunday, which was originally planned a. sunday, which was originally planned a-— sunday, which was originally planned a— planned a. and actually we heard from _ planned a. and actually we heard from the _ planned a. and actually we heard from the us - planned a. and actually we | heard from the us secretary planned a. and actually we - heard from the us secretary of state into the blinken, saying he was confident would start on

sunday. assumedly because donald trump has been a key player in all of this, he will want it done for his inauguration in washington? exactly. that's in yahoo is quite afraid of donald trump —— netanyahu is. let's put it like that. he is trying to festival not burn a bridge with donald trump even before he takes office, but at the same time also try to keep his foreign partners relatively happy. it's a really difficult task. because donald trump does not care about these two far right political parties, he cares about a cease—fire, he cares about a cease—fire, he cares about the cease—fire in lebanon being intact, hejust wants about the cease—fire in lebanon being intact, he just wants to come into office not having wars in the middle east. and if for some reason this cease—fire is not voted on in israel when donald trump takes office, i think he is going to have a very, very harsh beginning to his relationship with netanyahu.-

his relationship with netanyahu. his relationship with netan ahu. . ., ., netanyahu. 0k, jotam confino, middle east _ netanyahu. 0k, jotam confino, middle east correspondent - netanyahu. 0k, jotam confino, middle east correspondent for. middle east correspondent for the telegraph, very interesting to hear your thoughts on that. let's get to our panel. charles and kezia dugdale. charles, on that us perspective, on all of this, how angry would donald trump be if this is not all done and dusted before he is sworn in as the next president? trump has made it pretty clear that he — trump has made it pretty clear that he wants this war over by the time — that he wants this war over by the time he is sworn in at noon. _ the time he is sworn in at noon. dc_ the time he is sworn in at noon, dc time, on monday. i think— noon, dc time, on monday. i think he— noon, dc time, on monday. i think he played a pretty important deal here by giving orders — important deal here by giving orders to— important deal here by giving orders to netanyahu with the help— orders to netanyahu with the help obviously of the biden administration that's been putting _ administration that's been putting in an enormous manev efforts— putting in an enormous manev efforts to _ putting in an enormous manev efforts to bring this war in gaza — efforts to bring this war in gaza to _ efforts to bring this war in gaza to a _ efforts to bring this war in gaza to a close. so my best guess — gaza to a close. so my best guess is— gaza to a close. so my best guess is that we will get a cease—fire on sunday or monday

for the _ cease—fire on sunday or monday for the new president takes office. _ for the new president takes office, and if you look at the knesset _ office, and if you look at the knesset more broadly, even if ben-gw— knesset more broadly, even if ben—gvir and small church, the two far— ben—gvir and small church, the two far right numbers of the cabinet, _ two far right numbers of the cabinet, oppose the deal, netanyahu has the support of the opposition on this to end the opposition on this to end the war. _ the opposition on this to end the war, so it may not be pretty. _ the war, so it may not be pretty, but i think we're to get — pretty, but i think we're to get a — pretty, but i think we're to get a cease—fire by sunday or monday— get a cease—fire by sunday or monday at the latest —— ben—gvir and smotrich. monday at the latest -- ben-gvir and smotrich. what is this hold that — ben-gvir and smotrich. what is this hold that donald _ ben-gvir and smotrich. what is this hold that donald trump - ben-gvir and smotrich. what is| this hold that donald trump has over that's in yahoo, do you think? why do you think he has managed to get this deal agreed by the is really prime minister whenjoe biden could not for so many months? when joe biden could not for so many months?— when joe biden could not for so many months? you know, i think everybody _ many months? you know, i think everybody is _ many months? you know, i think everybody is trying _ many months? you know, i think everybody is trying to _ many months? you know, i think everybody is trying to get - many months? you know, i think everybody is trying to get on - everybody is trying to get on trump's _ everybody is trying to get on trump's good side, because they don't _ trump's good side, because they don't know— trump's good side, because they don't know what to expect. and as a _ don't know what to expect. and as a consequence, i think trump right— as a consequence, i think trump right now— as a consequence, i think trump right now has maximum leverage with netanyahu with putin. i expect— with netanyahu with putin. i expect him to reach out to putin— expect him to reach out to putin early on in his presidency to try to cut a deal on ukraine. we see it in the

private _ on ukraine. we see it in the private sector. all ceos are beating _ private sector. all ceos are beating a path tamara lago to -et beating a path tamara lago to get on — beating a path tamara lago to get on trump oz make good side. everybody— get on trump oz make good side. everybody is simply trying to -et everybody is simply trying to get in — everybody is simply trying to get in his good graces —— path tarnara — tamara lago. a lot of what net value _ tamara lago. a lot of what net value has— tamara lago. a lot of what net value has wanted to do has been accomplished. hamas is reeling. hezbollah has been deeply sent back _ hezbollah has been deeply sent back. iran is exposed and vulnerable. on some level, the sin yahoo — vulnerable. on some level, the sin yahoo can say mission accomplished and be telling the truth _ accomplished and be telling the truth -- — accomplished and be telling the truth —— on some level, netanyahu. truth -- on some level, netanyahu.— truth -- on some level, netanyahu. kezia dugdale, whatever— netanyahu. kezia dugdale, whatever you _ netanyahu. kezia dugdale, whatever you think - netanyahu. kezia dugdale, whatever you think of - netanyahu. kezia dugdale, i whatever you think of donald trump, whatever the world thinks of donald trump, maybe he has a will is a peacemaker in the middle east and ukraine? we need to stop i understand the deal that has been done here as we know it is very similar to what biden was

proposing and it is down to the hard graft of the biden administration that a cease—fire can be caught and we hope that will come into effect on sunday for some the extent to which trump is responsible for this cease—fire is that his inauguration on monday is focused the minds. it is the addictively of trump which has forced this over the line and forced this over the line and for a deal to be done rather than any particular intervention he himself has made to change the deal that biden put forward earlier... you not giving much credit for getting this over the line if it does get over the line? it is not saying it is of no credit, but i think it would be wrong to suggest that he and he alone has delivered this. it would feel to recognise the amounts of hard work over several months by a number of different parties, including egypt, the qatari is in people and the bided ministration. the three phases — and the bided ministration. the three phases to the agreement, it's a very gated three phases

agreement. do you think it will be successful coachella i hope so. we all desperately hope that it does.— that it does. there are important _ that it does. there are important stages - that it does. there are important stages even that it does. there are - important stages even within each of those phases. as you highlighted earlier, there is an important day on day 16 of phase one where the next stage of negotiations will start most of negotiations will start most of it is only once that has started that we will start calmly what will happen with the next exchange of prisoners and hostages. and then of course we are still miles from the very serious conversation that needs to be had around how to rebuild gaza and who is going to pay for that and of course how we are going to ensure the correct amount of aid gets into gaza as quickly as it possibly can.— as it possibly can. and charles. _ as it possibly can. and charles, do _ as it possibly can. and charles, do you - as it possibly can. and charles, do you think. as it possibly can. and i charles, do you think the as it possibly can. and charles, do you think the trump administration will keep up 1534 00:14