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tv   The Context  BBC News  January 17, 2025 8:00pm-8:31pm GMT

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unfortunately, taunting us. unfortunately, even that — taunting us. unfortunately, even that we _ taunting us. unfortunately, even that we are _ taunting us. unfortunately, l even that we are approaching the official_ even that we are approaching the official announcement- even that we are approachingl the official announcement and the official announcement and the enforcement— the official announcement and the enforcement of— the official announcement and the enforcement of the - the enforcement of the cease—fire, _ the enforcement of the cease—fire, we - the enforcement of the cease—fire, we are - the enforcement of the cease—fire, we are stilll the enforcement of the - cease—fire, we are still having the killing _ cease—fire, we are still having the killing that's _ cease—fire, we are still having the killing that's continued . the killing that's continued to. �* h, the killing that's continued to. �* a, , the killing that's continued to. a, , , the killing that's continued to. above all, this is a reflection _ to. above all, this is a reflection of _ to. above all, this is a reflection of the - to. above all, this is a l reflection of the human to. above all, this is a - reflection of the human tragedy that's befallen of the israelis, the hostages and theirfamilies, and the their families, and the palestinian theirfamilies, and the palestinian civilian population in gaza. the israeli government is meeting to approve the ceasefire with hamas — will it hold? and how will the incoming trump administration steer it through the later stages? we will get the view here in washington. the hugely popular social media app tiktok will be banned in america on sunday. the supreme court has dismissed an appeal by the company — we'll have more on that. how much ofjoe biden�*s green policy can be unpicked? we will speak to one
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of america's leading climate scientists. and houston, we have a problem — the starship blows up on its way to orbit. a spectacular view for those on the ground, an irritating setback for elon musk. a very good evening from washington. israel has released tonight the names and ages of 95 palestinian prisoners who will be freed from israeli prisons in the first phase of a ceasefire deal — if and when it is approved. the full israeli cabinet is meeting tonight to consider the agreement — they have been locked in discussions for the last couple of house. they are expected to approve it — though some far—right politicians, including the national security minister, itamar ben—gvir, have signalled they will oppose it. the deal involves three phases with 33 hostages, including children, to be freed in this first phase, due to start on sunday. the list of the hostages to be released does not indicate the condition of the hostages, although israel believes
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many of them to be alive. the hamas—run civil defence agency says 116 people have been killed in gaza since the ceasefire agreement was announced on wednesda —— was announced on wednesday. lets speak now to our correspondent in jerusalem, jonah fisher. perhaps you could bring us up—to—date with where we are with this cabinet meeting? the meetin: with this cabinet meeting? the meeting is _ with this cabinet meeting? the meeting is still _ with this cabinet meeting? tue: meeting is still going with this cabinet meeting? tte: meeting is still going on, with this cabinet meeting? tt2 meeting is still going on, it's late into the evening here in israel, its shabbat, thejewish holiday, and get the discussions are still going on — it's three hours and counting, some reports saying the security chiefs who were addressing this expanded meeting of government ministers have finished briefing them of the contents of the cease—fire agreement, and now all the ministers are having a chance to have their say. we did earlier today have a security cabinet meeting, which is a slimmed—down version of the senior ministers, and that
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voted pretty clearly in favour of the deal — two far right ministers voted against it, as expected — and to be quite frank, we are not expecting there to be any surprises from this bigger meeting this evening. it's pretty clear that, even if those far right ministers do again vote against this agreement, it will pass through this government meeting, and that will in turn pave the way for the implementation of this cease—fire deal to start on sunday. cease-fire deal to start on sunda . ~ cease-fire deal to start on sunday-— cease-fire deal to start on sunda . ~ . ., , ., sunday. we heard a statement today from _ sunday. we heard a statement today from the _ sunday. we heard a statement today from the palestinian - today from the palestinian authority saying they are fully prepared to assume immediate responsibility in gaza if an agreement is reached — how is that viewed in jerusalem, agreement is reached — how is that viewed injerusalem, and what role do they have in this peace agreement? t what role do they have in this peace agreement?— what role do they have in this peace agreement? i think if you were to mention _ peace agreement? i think if you were to mention that _ peace agreement? i think if you were to mention that to - peace agreement? i think if you were to mention that to many i were to mention that to many people around here, indeed many palestinians, they would say the palestinian authority who
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doesn't even have control of much of the west bank, where it still technically has authority, it's hard to see how the palestinian authority will have much of a role in gaza. at this point, there is no plan in place for what happens after israel starts pulling back from the populated areas on sunday. they've consistently refused to really discuss what happens on day one of any peace agreement. it doesn't look likely it'll be the palestinian authority — israel doesn't want that, in part because it suggests a tacit approval for a two state solution if you have the same authority responsible for gaza and the west bank. israel's bottom line is it doesn't want hamas, but it hasn't laid out any other vision for what will happen to governance in gaza once they pulled back. so that is one of the great unknowns, one of the great unsolved parts of this gaza cease—fire agreement. it does not address
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fundamental questions about god's future, it is very much, in a sense, a short—term deal — a cease—fire, a pull—back by israeli troops in return for some, not all of the hostages that are still being held there. �* ., there. and we will get into some of— there. and we will get into some of that _ there. and we will get into some of that in _ there. and we will get into some of that in a - there. and we will get into some of that in a second. l some of that in a second. jonah, thanks very much for that. in recent days, both president biden and president—elect trump have been claiming credit for this deal. trump wasting no time in asserting he was the moving force behind it. joe biden, insisting that "the precise contours" of the plan are the same as those he set out in late may. i did really put together — if it doesn't work, i gotta take the blame for it — a plan with my national security team. and i believed that we could make it attractive to the arab world, as well as to thejewish community, to accommodate the kind of changes necessary. get the prisoners released, get the cease—fire moving in a direction where we agreed
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how this would work and how isreal�*s troops would move, how we would bring in, rebuilding on the gaza strip, and the economy, how we'll clean all the stuff up and protect israel. in the meantime, what we were able to do — i know it was very controversial when i did it — we also decided we would protect israel from outside forces. if we were involved i in this deal, the deal would've never happened. no deal would've happened, and the hostages would've l probably never seen life again. but they certainly. wouldn't have been released for a long time. no, we changed the course i of it, and we changed it fast, and frankly, it better be done before i take the oath - of office — and i assume l it is now, we shook hands and we signed certain documents — but it better be done. - but no, and it was so ungracious of biden i to say he did it — - he didn't do anything! if i didn't do this, -
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if we didn't get involved, the hostages would never be out, they would've _ never come out. but of course, the release of the 33 hostages — if that can be secured — will be only part one of the agreemennt. and that first phase will not result in the release of all the hostages. there are 6—7 american hostages among those still being held and, if they are still in gaza at the end of the first phase, donald trump has indicated he would be supportive of israel resuming the war — but that comes with political risk. joining me now is david hale. he's was the us special envoy for middle east peace, 2011—13. welcome to the programme. thank ou. let's welcome to the programme. thank yom let'siust _ welcome to the programme. thank you. let'sjust pick— welcome to the programme. thank you. let'sjust pick up _ welcome to the programme. thank you. let'sjust pick up that - you. let's 'ust pick up that issue you. let's 'ust pick up that we — you. let'sjust pick up that issue we were _ you. let'sjust pick up that issue we were talking - you. let'sjust pick up that l issue we were talking about with jonah about the palestinian authority. one of the most interesting aspects of this deal is that benjamin netanyahu has acquiesced to hamas or meaning and power, which he said he would never do — why has he done that? t which he said he would never do - why has he done that?- - why has he done that? i think hamas is _ - why has he done that? i think hamas is not _ - why has he done that? i think hamas is not really _ - why has he done that? i think hamas is not really empower, i hamas is not really empower, thanks to the idf�*s military action, they've been able to bring hamas to its knees, which is why we have an agreement with the strong messaging from
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donald trump. the key question is, what will happen? will there be a vacuum in gaza? will be in charge of security and rebuilding governance, who will be able to co—ordinate reconciliation? right now, there are no questions, or answers to that question. the palestinian authority is in doubtful capacity to go in and put aside any of the politics, they don't have the presence or credibility needed to restore governance after this long, long absence. so i think you're likely to see neighbourhood associations coming in block by block, district by district to try to do what's needed to keep people focused. our goal in the united states should be, on the bigger pictures, how do we consolidate the reversal of fortune that israelis have imposed on iran and its allies? that also means solutions to dealing with these localised
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problems, lebanon, which is not full reit resolved either, and that's where the new team will be focused. t’ll that's where the new team will be focused-— be focused. i'll come back to iran because _ be focused. i'll come back to iran because i _ be focused. i'll come back to iran because i think - be focused. i'll come back to iran because i think there . be focused. i'll come back to | iran because i think there are some interesting subjects here about how the israeli right sees this and what they want from donald trump. but in terms of that clip we played from trump saying it better get done, it probably will get done in the first phase, but as i say, there'll be some hostages left behind. then we come to the very tricky second phase, presumably hamas holds on to those for maximum leverage — maximum leverage involves a path to a palestinian state. well, there won't be a path to a palestinian state in any immediate future, neither the palestinians or israelis at this stage support a two state outcome. it has support in the arab world and in europe and america, but not amongst the parties. there's a lot of work that needs to be done to reopen that needs to be done to reopen that pathway. meanwhile, trump has demonstrated he has leverage and he has a powerful voice that moves these parties
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and makes them make tough decisions. so i'm confident that this first phase will work out pretty well — there may be troublemakers and spoilers, but i don't think that's at risk. the key question is notjust the second phase, but where does the second phase go? we need to not rely upon old thinking to deal with new realities. the new realities will be addressed by —— will not be addressed by... when you look at the grassroots, what do people in gaza actually want? they don't want hamas or the pa, what do they want? and what can we provide to them to rebuild their lives?- rebuild their lives? you touched _ rebuild their lives? you touched on _ rebuild their lives? you touched on the - rebuild their lives? you touched on the issue i rebuild their lives? you touched on the issue of rebuild their lives? you - touched on the issue of iran, one of the diplomatic paradoxes of what's been achieved here is that he's enforced on the israeli right a deal that they reviled, a deal celebrated by the israeli left. what more will they want from him? they don't trust _
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will they want from him? they don't trust anyone. _ will they want from him? they don't trust anyone. they've i don't trust anyone. they've demonstrated that — i'm not in the room, i don't know what went on behind—the—scenes, but my guess is netanyahu made some assurances to the right wing about how far he would and would not go. and what leverage he's gained with the american president. my guess is the common ground between us, the israeli government, including the right wing, will be iran. how will we consolidate the gains the idf is achieved in reducing iran's ability to support malign influence throughout the middle east? but on that particular issue, they want vastly different things. one would presume that donald trump will want a maximalist deal on a second nuclear deal from which they extract a lot from which they extract a lot from the irradiance. benjamin netanyahu from the irradiance. benjamin neta nyahu wants from the irradiance. benjamin netanyahu wants them to bomb the nuclear facilities and netanyahu wants them to bomb the nuclearfacilities and he wants american support for that. ~ , , . ., , that. my experience - i was under secretary _ that. my experience - i was under secretary of - that. my experience - i was under secretary of state - that. my experience - i was . under secretary of state during the first trump administration
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— the idea of returning to a nuclear deal with iran was on the distant horizon. we never abandoned it, but the main objective was to apply sufficient pressure for a sufficient pressure for a sufficient period of time to change the iranian calculus. we've gone a long way thanks to israel in changing that, but it's not done. so i think the focus in the initial period will be on re—imposing sanctions on depriving iran of the ability of exporting nuclear material around the region, and how do you change their practice so they are more amenable to the deal that would be for both israel and the united states?— be for both israel and the united states? donald trump clearly wants _ united states? donald trump clearly wants normalisation i clearly wants normalisation between saudi arabia and israel, what he would see as the crowning glory of the abraham accords. were he to go down that route, there's no doubt this audis would want to see a path to a future palestinian state. the street would not allow them to not put
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that into the negotiation. they'll pay lip service to that, and i think it's true that, and i think it's true that after october 7th, they'll require something more for the palestinians then 1523 00:13:09,305 --> 00:13:
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