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on the brink of a trade war. and the uk steel sector? donald verify reports. trump is threatening 25% donald trump is threatening 25% tariffs, the of tax on tariffs, the type of tax on imports of steel and aluminium us. he didn't yesterday when he made threat .terday when he made threat on day when he made threat on day force he made threat on day force one nade threat on day force one bute -ee in his first term as president he tariffs on he imposed metal tariffs on other countries including gthgr eehfltfies including ”" ’ " allies as canada european union, which and the european union, which the was then still a member the uk was then still a member with the they would with the argument they would help the us metals help the domestic us metals he also justified ta riffs tariffs then on méf . of national : ofnationalsecurity grounds of national security given the metal as 1 7 important for the particularly imparts. rat—fertile ,.....,..,.....,.._..,,

particularly impgrtént—fgr—thgr— ,. ,, . ,, so his defense industry. 59 did—his—r—r ~ — ~ ~ , . tariffs in boosting 7 steel??? let's look 7 7 steel??? let's look at 7 us steel? let's look at as you can see, employment. as you can see, there was no — -::’7 = “f increase in steeljobs during trump is not first term. increase in steeljobs during economists not first term. increase in steeljobs during economists who irst term. of those first term impact of those first term tariffs have found steel tariffs have found that because the 5.1. ’* price because the domestic us price of rose the of steel rose after the tariffs were imposed employment and some other manufacturing some other us manufacturing sectors which relied on steel sectors which relied en steel an import sectors which relied on steel an import was actually lower sectors which relied on steel a| it nport was actually lower sectors which relied on steel a| it'nport was actual have �*er than it otherwise would have and a number of us been. and a number of us such as the companies such as the agricultural machine“ , dear agricultural machine"; . dear reported manufacturerjohn dear reported impacted. but what would being impacted. but what would the impact be those the impact be of those steel tariffs on the uk steel 7 vbritain does export inddstrg? britain dees fleet w?” ww to inddstrv? britain dees meet ~ , to the inddstrg? britain dees meet ~ , to the us, around half $1 steel to the us, around half $1 worth in 2023. so 25% billion worth in 2023. so 25% on these exports going america would likely be a —: �* to the j �*to the uk 5 �*to the uk steel 5 �* to the uk steel sector as blow to the uk steel sector as their products

become considerably more expensive in the us domestic eiicgeiggivein’the us domestic. although it should be market. although it should be this 6% of said this is only around 6% of total steel exports by uk exports 7 uk exports go eu. uk exports go eu. perhaps exports go eu. perhaps the (ports go 7 " " euflife'riia'fié theibigger go uk steel sector of these ”id's; lll! feted! ze�*h' “44�*222 "’ ' is a spill—over tariffs is a spill—over effects. cheap steel effects. relatively cheap steel exports from other countries could get diverted from the us and perhaps from other countries if they put up their own tariffs in response to ones. that steel could us ones. that steel could then be dumped in the uk markets sold below the meaning sold below the cost of production. undercutting steel manufacturers and 1:12; a steel manufacturers and 1:27; a sector that threaten jobs in a sector that directly employs around 40,000 directly em plays—e round 40,7900 the directly employs—e round 40,7900 the eu directly employs—o round 40,7900 the eu and the uk in wa ke wake of brexit already have the—woke of arexitfolreody hove so—called safeguard the—woke of arexitfolreody have on so—called safeguard the—woke of arexitfolreody have on certain .led safeguard the—woke of arexitfolreody have on certain steel ifeguard tariffs on certain steel coming from china, the exports coming from chine, the biggest steel producer worlds biggest steel producer and exporter, try to prevent z 7 happening. happening. 5 existing

that happening. those existing defences be if defences must be overwhelmed if producers cut their chinese producers cut their further response to chinese producers cut their new rther response to chinese producers cut their new us er response to chinese producers cut their new us tariffs. ;ponse to chinese producers cut their new us tariffs. and ;e to is releva nt relevant context. the blue the relevent context. the lcilue shows steel “he shew slfieelefiel’ w” m " and the redline production end the redline steel production endthe redline steel production shows global steel production capacity. large excess capacity. that large excess capacity. that large excess capacity essentially means the world is collectively iar more far more steel of producing far more steel it can than it can currently absorb and that means many countries are selling it at below the cost production generating a z -—:§ �* risk of 77 77 �* risk of 77 as 77 �* risk of 77 as you higher risk of dumping. as you can see, excess is not new problem but economists that danger of major warned that the danger of major new steel tariffs is that it new us steel tariffs is that it sets a general sets off a general destabilising by other destabilising rush by other to impose destobilising rush by other to impose own nations to impose their own major new trade barriers in and they say this risks both: j bothfhodseholds and

what is your analysis of from's thinking and president from's thinking and impact is to if: have? the steel sector in is ve have? the steel sector in l - is very politicised particular is very politicised the us. there is a lot of in the us. there is a lot of jobs in the rust belt so iebs in the rust belt so indiana, = depend on steel. so us that depend on steel. so us politicians have been keen politicians have been very keen protect the sector in the to protect the sector in the past. we have often done on past. we have often done it on the grounds of national security, the idea that if the we re were to get into a conflict example it would need a for example it would need a source of locally source oflocelly produced for wea pons, source oflocelly produced for weapons, ships and steel for weapons, ships and all that kind of donald all that kind of thing. donald has done this before, he all that kind of thing. donald it has done this before, he all that kind of thing. donald it i2018. |e this before, he all that kind of thing. donald it i2018. |e th experiencee did it in 2018. that experience suggests any tariffs not suggests any tariffs might not be long—lived they were be long—lived because they were eventually down eyentudilv broudht downedeih deals done with the following deals done with the of and mexico. and "he? %§ efigfififi figdgéfigség�*f h 7 �* with "he? %f efififidfi figdgé-�*gség�*f 77 7 �* with european "he? 3 e33 5135333535433“? 77 7 �*with european union later with the european union and the uk. in terms of whether or not they actually protect jobs, the evidence from last jobs, the evidence from lost round suggests they don't.

time—round suggests they'doh't. the industry ielriibloyment in the industry the biggest impact of the fell. the biggest impact ofthe ,, e us,” he”. s. would fell. the biggest impact ofthe ,, e we” w”— ,, would likely on fell. the biggest impact ofthe re e eeeer rreeer er is >uld likely on ii iii " " fell. the biggest impact ofthe re e eeeer rreeer er is the likely on ii iii " " fell. the biggest impact ofthe re e eeeer rreeer er is the biggest on ii iii " " fei—l the biggest impsgi nfthe ,, i in” ”mi ., is the biggest supplier vie " ,, which is the biggest supplier of steel to the us market and also mexico.— of steel to the us market and also mexico. r . ., , beijing the 7 7 r , the : success” - 7 7 r them. : success” - 7 7 r them. yourzrzri judiczxux . 77777 b77from them. yourthoughts. so so, he moves from them. your thoughts on that and the growing ., sue. 777of7777 - s- 77 7777 777ofwhat777777 77 7777 777of77th5i717t7>7o7k§ 77 7777 77bi7vihéi7l7t7>7o7k7s like gogglgitidpof what looks like a potentially a pretty trade war? . ., 7the verge 77the verge of a 7the verge of a trade war 7the vt open i a trade war 7the vt open to trade war iioivyiigs open to duestion �*we iioivyiigs open to duestion �* we are iioivyiigs open to duestion �*we are and were not. if whether we are and were not. if look at the chinese 7 to donald trump's they introduced tariffs, they have introduced their own retaliatory 7ab°ut . about$11i7 7 7 about$14b|ll|on 77about $11; billion wort7h7 of on about $14 billion worth of imports. china imports about on about $14 billion worth of impt billion ina imports about on about $14 billion worth of impt billion worth aorts about on about $14 billion worth of impt billion worth of “ts about $165 billion worth of products the us every �*so in from the us every year so in that sense this is a fairly small thing. it looks china is doing is though china is doing is sending out a signal that we willing 7 willing to 77 are not retaliating in that; just yet tear oi 77 s70 they trying escalation. so they are trying to send out a signal to donald

without making trump without making the situation worse. we do donald trump is a that donald trump is a deal—maker so there is potentially that to it well. you and then as well. you threaten and then you wind down you are you wind down what you are asking for. is this new policy a new direction �*a negotiating tool? if??? wait for it is for “on; i wait for it is for donald i to actually officially trump to actually officially announce these because what he said on air force one last announce these because what he said was ' force one last announce these because what he said was midway)ne last announce these because what he said was midway through night was midway through of lots of other discussion of lots of other issues. was asked a question -=——: the ownership of us steel about the “nefho of lls ftee' ~ ~~ ... said he todayt these today these tariiis announcing today these tariffs on both steel and aluminium imports 25%. he not imports at 25%. he has not announced them yet. actually announced them yet. what we saw with his ; ff- announcement of tariffs a few days ago against key trading

7canada 7 7 canada and7 7 7 canada and7 mexico7 canada and mexico was partners canada and mexico was that unleashed a lot of that thetunleoshed a lot of about imminent that thatunleashed a lot of about imminent trade concern about imminenttrade �*and those concern about imminenttrade �* and those tariffs concern about imminenttrade �*and those tariffs within war and those tariffs within the food as mr trump believed he had his over he had got his way over drug and border issues trafficking and border issues he this was designed vvhich he said this vvas desieeed re — . r— we re— put pressure those toput pressure on those over. other tqput pressure on those over. other analysts countries over. cjther analysts have some mr would have felt in some ways mr trump backed down because the tightrope he is here is tightrope he is walking here is his promise to americans to protect native industries like steel making and aluminium with cost of imports, putting up the cost of imports, versus his other core promise to american and that was 777 777777bringing 77 77 77brin7ging7d7own7 77 77 bringing down the cost of gbouzt bringing down the cost of spiralling gigodt bringing down the cost of spiralling levels of living and spiralling levels of inflation that rose on inflation. that rose on. biden and 777773887777 a. . .. 77777and77 7 77 to

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