good evening. good evening. that's when a military expert appears in the studio, many are unnecessarily tense, although there is no emergency. here, in order to immediately dot the question and ask a question that is now for some reason spinning a fluent one, they say, the closure of poland of the next transition. it's almost like a declaration of war. here's what's wrong with these statements. well, paradoxically , there is definitely some truth in their statements, but i would say that this is not an announcement about the continuation of the war. in fact, we can state that poland, together with

strange west is waging a hybrid war against belarus. how can it be for several years, how could one say a hybrid war, if we take, so to speak, the e statement of the geologists and in itself an informational economic political and as the last hot war that is being waged by proxy, that is, by means. e those residents who live in this state. well, thank god, we didn’t pass this stage in 1920, because the political actions are armed with the imperative, but this does not mean that poland and the west have abandoned their efforts, and therefore should be relaxed. yes, that's why i think that, first of all, this informational kind of blow. because the second attempt to inflict economic harm on us is really unpleasant to undermine the status of belarus as a reliable transit state. so in general, i suppose to sow some discontent in the ranks

of those who live in the western regions of our country and carry out shuttle economic relations between the western regions of our country and eastern poland there very seriously. as the youth of the movement says, serious volumes ties, and therefore, i think, many people who have lost a significant part of their income. because of this, they will be dissatisfied, the question is where they will direct their discontent. well, our opponents believe that inside the country, well, for several years they have been relying on the situation to shake up the situation and multiply the number of dissatisfied. i believe that we are present at the preparation of a new offensive hence all this talk about the possibility of an invasion. their illegal formations under the flag of the opposition from the territory of ukraine in the ranks, which will polish vacationers. yeah, the goal is to destabilize the situation, unleash a civil war and generally paralyze the belarusian authorities. so i think these are all elements of that same

hybrid war, and what will be the next steps? well, uh, we'll wait, but the state seemed to be ready, that is, no one canceled the informational component in this war. they actively use it absolutely. i think that uh, given that there is no hot wars, one of the most important along with the economic one. let's just leave two crossings from poland. well, lithuania too starts to engage in this stupidity, but your forecast. here are the remaining two transitions and with such an attitude towards us from the polish comrades. yes, why do we need their embassy? yes , and two consulates in case they still decide to take such a step. well, maybe i will express a somewhat paradoxical thought, but i believe that they themselves will not survive for a long time. the thing is that on this side we kept transit from that side of poland lithuania are transit powers, which also carry out the passage of chinese goods through themselves

from central asia and so on and in the opposite direction also goods from western europe of course there is a blockade there are sanctions against russia belarus but there are no sanctions against the countries of central asia and china and in general, we are an important uh, so to speak, a milestone on the path of one belt one the path that the chinese are laying here. and of course, when they forbade this transition. they also thought that you would inflict damage on the chinese, too, in order, let's say , to quarrel not to quarrel, but to reduce the value of belarus in the eyes of the chinese people's republics, but i think there will be pressure on them from western europe as well, because, after all , there is nothing now in terms of violating the existing economies. and communications will hurt the other side too, and i think that nu will be more forced to abandon this blockade, because it is contrary to her own economic interests. that is, it is a matter of time, a matter of time, a matter. uh, how long will the polish elite not survive at all? it is famous for the fact

that it does not calculate, far reaching the consequences, if we consider 80 years ago their luck actually throughout their entire history, so i think that this is a temporary measure, and they will gradually abandon it, as far as diplomatic representation is concerned. i think that , of course, it is not necessary to completely break off diplomatic relations, but to lower the degree of representation, yes, then, of course, it would be necessary to show that we, in general, understand them as hostile. well, i think we should at least carry out some more. uh, military exercises and three and training in this region, because judging by to the responses of both the polish side and the ukrainian side - this is so unnerving for both the ruling elite and the military ordinary citizens that i think it’s not a sin for us to pull their mustaches at all, but i’m

generally a supporter of not setting up pikes all the time, we absolutely provoke a further load . absolutely evil must be punished one way or another. the fugitives , especially in poland, are now very excited after the president's statement about the return of belarusians to their homeland, and the reasons, in principle, are understandable and apart from financial ones. well, that is, not only money floats away because of them hands, but this is the base for recruiting cannon fodder in khorugle, as they called them for the war in ukraine well, of course, for preparation, then this is in your opinion. why are these few fighters who are dying in batches? what's a sin? yes, they are needed now in a foreign war. i think they need a banner of these people, they need a banner to uh fan the participation of these people. to show that there are many of them, that

there are serious forces in belarus, which , together with the strange ones of the west, are ready to overthrow the existing government, but directly intervention they will not go under the banner of nato, because belarus is an ally of the russian federation , it is covered by a nuclear shield. we have a common defense space. and there is already a regional grouping here, but try with the help of this banner under the guise of the sign of the opposition and in the forefront, maybe 10-15 people of our armed oppositionists. and then there will be polish vacationers, private military companies. they they can i think that it is for this that they need to make chervona white. they need to know the banner, because after all, a certain certain influence. this ideology still has it even in belarusian society , and in general, if people, even in some way, and after the events of the twentieth year, hid, if

they do not show all the external ones, then if under this banner there will be some well, aggression in our territory is hard to predict. uh, how many will be under these banners, therefore, i think that they are precisely these considerations and leadership and the second. of course, they are afraid of loss, if in military terms the mobilization resource is a holy cause split the ranks of the enemy, that is, fellow travelers, so that those who left, well, succumbed. in the general mood of euphoria, it means that in a joyful party they ran through the streets so that they would leave. gone and they can still, as they say, be saved by the return of the prodigal children. do you know what confuses me in this situation. here even in these arguments. after all , the fact is that i understand that there are several dozen of them. yes, there they themselves say that there are no regiments there, but in reality they are now being thrown into the

hottest spots, that is, they will get drunk, yes, they are in they fought in solidarity, there are already dozens of dead and this is a fact that is being confirmed, including the information that periodically appears in the telegram channel with specific photographs of the dead. then why are they being spent in this way. if then there is hope that they will be used here in belarus, or is it still, let's say, the interests of different groups. i think it's the interest of different groups and in addition, here i was streaming yesterday. with opponents on the other side, they believe that by doing so they earn the authority of the ukrainian authorities combat experience and then together with ukrainian comrades. they will solve the problem of reformatting power on the territory of belarus that is, this is from their direct lips. well, i 'll say, so if the speed of their burial, to put it mildly, will be the same

as now, then there will be no one to participate. well , even if there are 2-3 people left, and one banner, this will give a reason in terms of information to make 300 out of three people, and from 303.000 and so on. that is, we know how it is done in the information field of the public information consent, but look without forcing. yes, it is on the agenda on monday , the president met with the secretary general and the house of representatives on new year's day, and this year three military exercises are planned to be held on the territory of belarus. yes, echelon interaction organizations. search csto has military potential. it's not a secret, another question. how sufficient is it in the current conditions, how to evaluate it? here is the potential. i want to reason from the roots from the moment the dkb was created. still. i assume that it was created primarily for overlapping huge land border of the russian federation with strange central asia

and through them with afghanistan, because, in general, there was such a threat that the flow of muslim drug radicals means that migration will pour into the russian federation where there is a large muslim population and it’s not a secret. there, these extreme currents have their influence, and we constantly hear reports that the fsb is detaining certain groups of these radicals, who are forming units here, which are being transferred to hot spots in syria, and so on, and which are being trained here some hostile actions, then initially it was. the cover of this direction and russia in general, i must say, e in this regard even fought with us. in fact, they demanded that we send significant contingents to cover that direction, and there was a difficult situation, because our constitution forbade the participation of belarusian military personnel in operations abroad and the president had to adopt a number

of regulations that allowed the participation of belarusian military personnel in peacekeeping operations to maintain order enforcement of peace abroad. we know this mechanism. this is the submission of a personal application by contract servicemen and the personal approval of each candidacy by the president. that is, this issue was resolved, as for the contingent, which means that russia has one airborne division, one airborne brigade, kazakhstan has one airborne brigade, one battalion. one airborne vitebsk brigade , the rest are all in one battalion, that is , we see that, after all, the main strike power - this is belarus, the russian federation, and kazakhstan, kazakhstan, but given the importance of that direction, central devatsky.

i think that it is unlikely that the russian federation belarus is counting on military assistance from kazakhstan . i think the president means political unity. he is on the territory of kazakhstan, uh, there is a huge stockpile of soviet-era weapons and ammunition that has been prepared since the time when we confronted china and that direction was the most dangerous , hundreds of thousands of tons, e. ammunition that periodically explodes in kazakhstan is also here. i think that , in this situation , and, of course, the armed forces of kazakhstan are not bad - there was good help, but the russian federation cannot expose the direction , it relies on ammunition stocks and i think, partly military equipment, which is located on the territory of kazakhstan, because we see

what systems are in use now, like, uh, howitzer d-20 1952. the stalinist sledgehammer is very widely used now, which means at the front in ukraine. in addition, old ammunition, which is even difficult to blow up with special devices. they are made. so, from the fifties to the nineties, therefore, of course, there is a desire to mobilize the resources of these states, including economic ones, and they have large reserves of land materials necessary for the a russian military-industrial complex, but there is opposition from the west. the thing is that in the economies of these countries is deeply western monopolies penetrated, which while russia was weak. they owned their main branches of oil production - gold mining. uranus means rare earth elements and now these countries seem to be sitting on two chairs. children. there are learning capitals brought abroad there

and there are levers of powerful influence on the elites. and that is why now it is lukashenka who is raising such a question. you guys are sitting on two chairs, or are you still with us with us in the political, economic and military, well, the president. he calls for common sense, because what he said is not the first time already about the fact that it will not be possible to sit back, speaks only of what is real. well, you know, this is how the righteous is in this reason. yes, and separate twigs. it will be easy for us to be broken one by one at the same time, if we are united within the framework of the dkb. we really can not break. you see, talking about kazakhstan in my opinion. in the same place , they penetrated not only into the economy. right there in the public mind. still, the background of soros has been working there very actively for 30 years , it is not profitable from there. i remember very well that competitions start there from the best writer kazakhstan's best play and so on. everything that is organized by the soros foundation for his money is

there, uh, including the cultural and economic elites. as you rightly said , the political elites, they were brought up largely thanks to this, and this is the danger, in fact, well, we just saw it for a single space a year ago. yes, when it nevertheless turned out that the western roof is unreliable and does not guarantee that this group of the ruling elite will be safe. they haven't learned much yet. well, unfortunately, unfortunately, i don't know how many more repetitions are needed, so that they learn their lesson. the thing is that as soon as they cease to correspond to the interest of the west to a certain extent and are immediately replaced, another color revolution is absolutely agreed. they will simply be merged, as this is not the first time this has happened in others. absolutely on february 21, putin will deliver a message. here we have concerns about prices, about the economy as a whole. the main thing that the russians want to hear. it seems to me so, i, at least, i assume and not only the russians, when will his

here, do you think we will hear the answer to this question, which means that i think that we will not hear specific dates or cities on the map in possession, with which the operation will end, because both sides are fighting here and the situation will depend on the result of the struggle on the battlefield, and in general , it seems to me, uh, the operation will end when ukraine loses a combat -ready capable army, when its mobilization resource is depleted only as much as when they cannot provide crews for the military equipment that will supply west, and the internal situation in the countries themselves and the second. now in ukraine it is almost completely lost. economy, there is no economy. the whole country is on

the content, as we say the collective west four million, which means. children are allowances for pregnant women, and so all this without which the state cannot exist is now paid at the expense of the west, the question is how long the west can nurse and keep on hand to feed from a nipple, which means ukraine, as far as it has, enough patience and resources. here is the question and in addition to fatigue, the fatigue of the population of the russian federation is not for nothing that strikes at the infrastructure and not only the military and not only transport, but also the infrastructure that ensures life there is no electricity, no sewage pumps, no drinking water. no, transportation and so on, so i think that the war is really going to attrition. i have no doubt. the west of excess ammunition is still planes, but the questions of where they study new ukrainians

are unlikely to want to, uh, donate with them to battlefield. there are frostbitten e, in general. wars that are not hundreds of thousands are not hundreds of thousands, and, in general, i think, as the combat-ready personnel of the ukrainian army will be replaced by mobilized ones, and they are not ready, but if their morale is low, then i think, in in general, this army is doomed to defeat, so i think there is not a specific date, not a specific point, well , the great great military demolition senior, who provided bismarck with the unification of germany, said that the struggle is not for territory, but for the destruction of the army enemy. if you destroy the enemy army, you will capture the territory. well , remember kutuzov, he said that if i lose moscow, i will not lose the army yeah, if i do not lose. then i return the army to

moscow and everything else, and in the end ended up in paris. yes, not him, but, of course, the russian federation switched to the tactics of grinding the ukrainian army. and they probably could have attacked more actively , more intensively, but now they are saving their forces and grinding the ukrainian contingents. they take multiple hits. watching it goes the offensive is already creeping, everyone says that when it starts, several blows are already underway, a weak spot is determined in the attack, and the main forces will be introduced into this weak spot, where the defense will be pierced. we know that some of the main mobilized. who says 120 140.000 is in the second mouselon and is waiting for the result of these trial trials and is preparing and preparing, you understand the most interesting thing, which is a little incomprehensible to me. i am a man of the past in the past, after all, a military one, yes, and i read a lot and read historical

literature, military literature, that's all the same forty-first year. yes, we knew where the war would end, where would it end? yes, the answer was one in berlin and the lair. we will definitely come there and at the reichstag, we will sign and the question was not in time. the question was for a very specific goal, now such options where yes, like the kremlin tower from odessa to lavash. well, i understand, of course, these experts can say whatever they want. they are usually not responsible for their words. they build forecasts and make hypotheses, moreover, the cooler, but still. eh, how much i understood from your answer? where is the question now look, putin also set the goal of the war as two militarizations, genocification, that is, it is not a question, not time, not space, but the question of the result is accepted here. in the meantime

, there has been some movement in the western media a year ago, the headlines were full of the invasion of russia . today nearpost, writes russia has gathered half a million soldiers and about 2,000 tanks. yes, and plans to launch an offensive within 10 days. you say there's a creeping offensive going on and they're just probing. yes, so after all, this is a global offensive. this is a false star of information, or, let 's say, a radical increase in activity at the front due to, as we are used to , flank attacks surrounded by large groups and so on. is it real or not. we are talking about the fact that they will take artyomovsk and thereby solve a major global, yes, military task today. the way it will be. i think that we have already said that the matter is not in the cities, the task is for them to use

all the reserves accumulated for the spring offensive, which do not plan for this spring, the reserves were pulled apart. these most hot spots in these very cities, because the ukrainians pulled them apart so that they could not later use them to fend off that offensive. uh, let's say the general one, which the russians will obviously be looking out for , waiting for the degree of depletion of these reserves to reach a certain limit. and when e their blow will not threaten a counteroffensive. that is, you do not rule out a truly global offensive. russian, of course, of course, should be. uh, well, knockout knockout punches or not, a few will suffice. sometimes we have a question. and how soon the enemy will depart and or depart. this blow or he will count 10 for him and it will be, or vice versa, it will sometimes be him and he will still resist for some time. well, they wait until the end, until the battle is officially

over. well, it feels like western representatives from the referee team. yes, they are not ready. count on points, there are only incandescences, i think, yes, in turn, yes, because the head of the ukrainian foreign ministry warns about great events on february 24, which russia will remember, kuleba likes to make such big statements. he once said in the twentieth year that it is necessary to destroy the economy of belarus, yes. uh, in order to achieve their goals, the goals of democracy, as he used to say. well, here's what kuleba might mean to them in this situation, the ukrainian offensive , ukrainian provocations and terrorist attacks on the territory of russia, or something else. well, here i think the list is small, of course, on a big offensive. they can't count ' cause they're running out of ammo which must be summed up in the ramshtan. they are

there to discuss it. uh, the failure of the majority, tanks and armored vehicles, the lack of aviation, and so on. i think this completely cuts off this option by the twenty-fourth, but there is the possibility of inflicting terrorist strikes. for some important objects of russian infrastructure. maybe the launch of a drone in the direction of moscow or not, which they developed, for example, yes, well , it can be the old soviet surviving swifts yes , which are kharkov 7. well, he probably already does not, because already there. russian scandars arrived there in calibers, and then in reserve they said that by the beginning of the conflict , ukraine had several hundred such devices and with the help of the ration company. it means that they built the control system in such a way that they can guide them over long

distances and at targets at a distance of hundreds of hundreds of kilometers. that is, you predict such a massiveness, where it would be informationally painful, what where? remember, when a heavy bomber hit the base in engels, it caused elicited a very negative response. after all, the task is to visit. well, discord within russian society itself. fatigue to show the inability of the ruling class to lead during the war and so on. that is, i think that there will be an attempt to discredit the leadership. the federation is further possible, well, as they already said, a nuclear provocation, that is, to announce that the russian federation, by its actions , allowed the chernobyl region to be contaminated with a new contamination of radioactive substances due to the fact that they either scattered these substances, either uh, opened the vault, there and

so on. well, maybe even uh, that means an operation using chemical weapons somewhere in the surrounding regions. here it is about drones from which the ukrainian armed forces are preparing to spray chemical weapons, and they have already used it , it is possible that it will be used in the border zone of the russian federation against settlements. that is here. well, here is a set or well, like a strike on the crimean bridge, only not on the crimean one, but in a different way, an object that is in the field and dofiga itself should be a great informational response, that is, the crimean bridge is their nothing yet. did not teach, apparently. it was on the contrary that he showed them that when using even insignificant forces it is possible? well, of course, significant damage. after all, it is not fully functional yet. that is, i think that they believe that they carried out a very successful operation and caused serious moral and economic damage

to russia, look there. there is another daniel there. yes, the head, he behaves like his criminal past. that's real, right? directly declares that the country is not going to fulfill the conditions for the use of western weapons. well, this means that massive strikes into the depths of russia massively into the depths in the case of the delivery of the appropriate expression - it's just a matter of time and in no way unwillingness desire. they have the west . is it capable of retaining such an unscrupulous partner if the deliveries are made? i think that we should not consider the ruling leader of the west as a single entity, and that's how the special military operation progresses. and as the victory ukraine moves away or becomes impossible. i think that different thoughts come to different figures, i think the ruling one is mad, as our soviet times used to say, who are ready to go to the end and take extreme

measures, and there are people, well, more soberly sober-minded prudent who believe that the use of ukraine according to territory of the russian federation mass use of missile weapons over long distances. may cause well unpredictable response from the russian federation uh- huh calculated politics and it's hard to predict how he might respond, despite the fact that they are in the press, they say that well, russia will not go for me. well, war will not be used there, but i think that there are some other options. here, i won't talk. what but we remember that strategic russian tu-160 bombers landed on the territory of venezuela at one time and venezuela allowed deployment on its territory. uh, well, some bases are not bass on strongholds, uh, which the russian

federation could use in certain situations. that is here. uh, i think that putin, of course, he is a man who plays long. he must be guided by the principle that revenge is a dish that should be served cold? so i think it 's not over yet. we will see, therefore also obviously thinks or from actors. i think that among the military, first of all, who, well, really understand the degree of threat in threats, people from the political class who came on political speculations, they hardly really assess these threats and calculate, that's why. i think that all the same, we still need to look at how the situation will develop in the ruling class itself.

uh, if you look at the publication of hersh, and the explosion of the northern streams, then many believe that this is some kind of signal from the awakening and sane elite, and that these people are preparing, uh, well, let's say braking braking for the american president. so that he did not go to the second term. it's nothing in america. and it does not happen, alexander borisovich, if the subject of the nord stream had already been touched upon. yes, this provocation, or rather this terrorist attack, which happened and the article that appeared by an american journalist who is trusted in the information space not only in the united states but in europe that the planes of the us air force were flying over these places back in june 22. well, in fact, the whole algorithm, how this terrorist attack took place, he paints, and they believed in it. it's written like that. so it's hard not to believe it. here is a journalist. he has long created a reputation for himself

as a person who does not write. it's just that he has the facts. here's what i would like to clarify. you partly said that putin likes to play for the long haul, but still there is a feeling that the russian medved are constantly giving these slaps in the face. yes , it swallows one thing for another, and something seems to me, this is not very, it looks like such a strategy, when they really poke you like a kitten into a battery. yes, all the same. what will be the reaction purely regarding this issue and can it be tough enough? i believe there will be a reaction, but a delay. why putin is acting in a soft glove , let's say. so this is, first of all, because he is looking at china and india, which is now shows loyalty, but obviously, if russia acts sharply aggressively, and

in general, well, it will be possible to see some kind of imperialist intentions in this. i think they say their position. this is shaky enough to change . we see that india is demonstrating a domineering position. she seems to be buying. so to speak, russian energy carriers, but he says that he would like even cheaper, that she can support these ceilings and so on. well, this is in the press in the press , such is the other side. she reports that is going to continue buying russian weapons and so on. and that's it. let's say these states are members of the brix, it is precisely at them that he looks back at them, vladimir putin. still, why are slogans from lavrov heard that we are for negotiations, although internally? what kind of negotiations is it only capitulation, but on the outer contour the russian federation demonstrates flexibility and peacefulness, what

can be the answers? well, if you take an adequate answer, then this is, first of all, well, here is the possibility of some kind of emergency, let's say in factories that produce. gas condenses gases yes, liquefied gas in america is well in the technological cycle. uh, so there's a short circuit or something else. maybe some well, ultra-communists who used to be called maists. here they are, again, some kind of sanction, sanctions, or on some important objects of american infrastructure on military bases. uh, in the middle east some. here again, an incomprehensible organization will fire missiles, as iran did in its time in response to, uh, the death of its general, therefore, i i think that answers to such questions will be

prepared, but russia has a rather narrow corridor. she is forced to look back at world public opinion. do you agree with snowden's message that all this hype around probes, unidentified flying objects and so on is artificial in order to divert the question from the topic of nord stream, which has become really painful, including for the leadership of germany well then, there is a scholz who is now directly accused of knowing about this and who allowed these terrorist attacks and thus released the standard of living of the germans, for which he is responsible under the constitution and he found himself in an extremely unsightly situation. and this is an attempt to bring down this topic with a new information wave. as far as it is for you, it seems justified. well i think it is. the few tools that they usually have left in such cases. yes, usually in such cases it means, let's face it, the war is undertaking some kind of

small military landing. there against some kind of drug regime and so on to divert attention and somehow way in consolidate consolidate society. now, when the war is already underway, the americans got in and when it was in afghanistan and the way out of afghanistan well, the toolkit is small. these are probably smart creative people. they came up with such a thing, because until now, as they say, many sources have been flying these unmeasured probes on the territory, yes, and no one has particularly bothered. and they even tell trump they didn't report because there were so many, but uh, let's get back, because the sixties and seventies are a war of balloon probes reconnaissance, when in side launched? there are hundreds of thousands of such balls on top of each other, and in general most of them. eh, she collected intelligence information both on the ground and in the upper

atmosphere with complete impunity, and so on, so, of course, i think that there is an information operation taking place. moreover, all the media have unanimously picked up, they wash their ears, their eyes are gone, or they completely beat him for the layman. here it is there in the fiftieth same topic of the new. she was, in fact, very popular. yes, now i understand that this message has returned. let's get the population a little busy with such questions so that they don't think. about the main ones. yes, i think one more thing. eh, now, poland wants to return to it again. it is building up military contingents on the border. well , for the past year, at least, yes has been buying equipment, including south korean tanks. yes, the behavior is more than reckless. the baltic ones in the emirates, in principle, run into a military slap in the face all the time, and i'm sure that in the case of the america team, they will return to russia without

hesitation. that's how far your view, these restless our neighbors of the neighbor-union state are potentially dangerous and ready for aggression. and if you are not ready yet, then when, in your opinion, this readiness will become maximum. well, i want to say that, of course, military preparations themselves are dangerous. we remember chekhov's well-known statement that if in the first act there is a gun on the stage, yes, then in the third it will fire, therefore, of course, when large contingents of troops accumulate on both sides, then danger arises. uh, let's just say that by chance the outbreak of war there is a human factor there is a human factor in the conditions of psychological processing of the constant industry in the media and the fact that people who are under uniform are constantly preparing for such options.

well, the human psyche can simply not stand it. we remember episodes. and with the moments when a nuclear war could have arisen between the united states and russia, then it was a flock of geese, then it was clouds, only in a computer. there was , in general, probably a miracle that this did not happen, and only now the voltage drop allowed, so to speak, e, to take this threat. now we are witnessing the growing military threat again. well, here's the injection. i'm such a goth case. uh, i remember in the exercises of the eighty-second year. major yakubovsky, the nephew of marshal yakubovsky, was our mediator, and he said he was a flag officer, in the american division , which means west germany, and he said that the officer should resolve situations that arise on the border. here is such a situation.

says a drunken american sergeant with girls of easy virtue knocked down a barrier broke into the area. uh, the gdr disposition of the soviet troops and asked for political asylum means, and then woke up and asked to be asked back, that is, perhaps, uh, well, such a situation could be with shooting and so on. that is, uh, in general , such situations can happen, and even without the desire of both sides, they can lead to a serious military conflict. but if there is a willingness to use it, this situation increases many times over, as for the likelihood of a conflict, then i am already of the opinion that they are waiting occurrence. an armed conflict on the territory of belarus that will provoke and are waiting for the pokosovo either option, or even here on the territory of belarus in the western regions, may arise. well, some kind of entity that will declare itself

independent and call on progressive humanity to help, as we have seen, means uh in kosovo there and so on, so i think direct war is unlikely. unless, uh, well, there is no exchange of tactical strikes of a tactical i am more expensive, but in case the proxy is a war, then after it the aggression of all these guys and more and countries may follow. that is, just in case, i emphasized here, that is, the thought that you touched upon. if within the state yes, tear apart, yes, yes, it will be an absolutely provoking factor. they wanted to achieve what they wanted, yes, yes, it was not by chance that the president said that when all these unrest began. and as he said , the flags of grodnopil appeared. he mobilized half of the army and threw it into that region, obviously, that after all, uh, our cash considers the reality of such

variant under certain conditions well i have one more question. he is, maybe not global, but still this is something that concerns. deliveries after all, we have just heard about tanks, about aircraft, long-range missiles , missile systems. yes, capable of inflicting deep into the territory of russia, here is your forecast. for this equipment how soon and how much of it will appear on the territory of ukraine well, i believe that , of course, in order to assemble and prepare it for combat, given that it is being removed, many of these leopard tanks are the only one in a number of countries last the modification of this is part of the smaller part that they need to be picked up, in addition, it’s still really an element of training

, especially the maintenance of a tank is such a technique that after each battle, if it remains alive, it requires serious maintenance, so i think it’s necessary be considered around march. again, this is the first delivery. first first deliveries. well, this technique still needs to be collected, it is necessary to collect and lead the battle. the readiness of the state of the aircraft, which means the aircraft here is a difficult question even for the west itself, given that almost all airfields. ukraine is within the reach of russian missiles, whether it be a caliber, or iskander, or h101 from strategic bombers. this means that it is difficult to find a place where a solid number can be based. well, there, uh, the ukrainians say 200 is necessary, so someone says, well , give at least 24 first, and a swift floor, so it’s clear that, firstly, uh, you need those

types of fighters that can start from poorly prepared sites or highways . well f-16. i don't think so intended. for this there is. there are such possibilities. i have read an expert that in the case of preparedness of the respective sections of the highwaymen. well, maybe it’s easier to use, it has a smaller take-off area at launch, in addition to maintenance and development, it means that the typhoon and the arafighter is not good, because it is a completely different class aircraft, which means that the f-35 is not good. well, there may be a tornado , which is now being withdrawn from service, but there are very few battles of ready-made such aircraft, very much, given that they are being decommissioned, which means, uh, it’s difficult will find them in a combat-ready state, so the candidates are, uh, slovenia, slovakia

, someone else can, uh, perhaps the czechoslovaks are some remnants of the mig-29 and more means the f-16. uh, i don’t see any other possibilities for candidates, so soviet old aircraft can be within 20 pieces. i think it was delivered very quickly. although they will also need to be , i think, about the same time frame. what "yes. and what about the f-16? well, i think that they, too , will eventually be supplied by the americans. but it's a matter of timing. will they succeed? well you know i still a skeptic in this regard, because i believe that even if the aircraft of the second world war, the training should still be several months, yes, uh, and then it was a take-off landing, by and large, also a trained pilot to retrain on

brand new technology. i mean, another, which he, in principle, did not see his eyes. before. still, you will need a more serious one in order to start from the highway. yes, it must be very high class, but there is an option. who will be who will who will sit in the cockpit, huh? well, we are talking about vacationers of these contracts well traditionally. extreme yes, about a philosophical question. here can a military expert a year for the world? i think that the world lacks justice, to exclude warriors, it is necessary to ensure a fair distribution of natural resources

and produced goods, because all wars start now either for material resources. this means that on the one hand or one of the parties protects its material resources and natural resources. it can be water and land and valuable precious metals. moreover, now, uh, we are seeing more and more depletion of natural resources and, in general, the question is an elementary question of water supply. the same could soon become the cause of the emergence and has already become the cause of these clashes in the fergana valley, a potential war around it. so, i think that if humanity organizes such a distribution of material goods, which will be recognized as fair by all peoples and states, then the causes of the main wars will be excluded. even though it seems like a utopia.

it seems to me that a multipolar world is closer to this ideal than the dominance of one state or even a group of two states that would share resources and natural wealth among themselves in terms of sphere of influence. here, i would like this from my point of view, it looks like this. well , god forbid, you have enough sense to come to a multipolar world. i think that only a multipolar world. here he can provide. here is the achievement of such an ideal. it can be said even utopia but it is the guarantee of the survival of the survival of mankind. if it will still be right the strongest who will take away an unmeasured amount of natural resources and material goods for himself to the detriment of others, then wars are guaranteed to us wars are guaranteed to us for the distant future.

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