there is a goal, there is a strategy, it is necessary to please children with sweets, and therefore all the obstacles that stand in the way. this is life to be overcome at the moment kommunarka is expanding and production is launching an innovative recycling project. cocoa bov. cocoa semi-finished products, so we can then provide e not only the yes factory with raw materials, but also other confectionery enterprises in our country, not only all the nuances that may be happening around us around our country around our factory. it's just an incentive to develop in order to strive for the best and get the best product dream and live your dream dreams must come true. they will definitely come true. i would like to write a bunch more songs to perform and convey to people my kindness of my thoughts. well, if you improve in kommunarka, so that your own house of culture appears, kommunarka, so that people come there. e workers, so that they can

dedicate themselves to singing creativity, so that kommunarka is not only the flagship of the food confectionery industry, but also a factory talent. happened to me. in general, the fact that with many in 2013 they were on vacation with the company and simply dived unsuccessfully, damn it, by surrendering which i received a fracture of the spine in the cervical part. well, it all led, because now i'm in a wheelchair, it was not

fear shocks. of all because it was broken and they were transporting it, then, uh, in the city of soligorsk, in an ambulance with admiration, of course, my hands failed, my legs failed. well, it was lucky that the brigade left, more precisely, from minsk and was operated on, and it became known that many of them do not feel their hands, they feel it already pleased after an injury after a two-year rehabilitation. naturally. i got into the sport readjusted. so the infrastructure here of kamennaya gorka allows wheelchair users to exist very well in general. and here he was, when he was in rehabilitation, the guys, he was prompted to say, uh, come to us first. it was basketball. and then he started playing tennis in wheelchairs, playing big basketball, because basketball for me is a stronger guy there, well, i don’t fit in terms of my

functionality. well, at the proper level, so it was necessary to choose something, but in tennis, we just have a division. that is , we have men, women and square quads - this is just the same for more, well, such injured heavy athletes. i was admitted and everything really has every chance in order, in principle, to achieve something serious. many say that these are athletes with disabilities. i don't agree. these are athletes with slightly more advanced needs. that is, they share, yes. 20 how much they have at the root during the draw on who we counted on, but to be honest, we counted only there were a lot of tournaments for voitar before the classification before the olympiad, so there was a lot of movement in the ratings. here, well, the fifty-sixth was, yes, but, unfortunately, it did not work out. here, naturally. we made all plans for paris and to rise in the rankings to get licenses. yes, all this was planned, but when they found out that our

paralympic name was excluded , they rejected it, they froze it, as it should be. i don’t know, we realized right away that everything that paris doesn’t work for us. we all see how they some great work was being done. and how did they get through it all? in the end, they were refused. it's not that offensive it is. well, i don’t know, even this is some kind of trouble honestly. now we will perform a strike in turn and from the right to the left we make a series of eight strikes. good direction do not forget not to the center we win back raise well come on, come on, come on, come on in the wheelchair already in the sport. these are already great. i consider a great achievement by itself and on the mass only to wait and prepares to be prepared to be a general weapon when finally allowed. and when we can perform at such a birth, we always need to be sure that nadezhda was sure that we are on the right track.

andrey chernobay, analyst of the belarusian institute for strategic studies , we see how the world is changing dramatically and unpredictably, and we will talk about these processes that are taking place in our eyes today. hello, on the air, the program, say, do not be silent in the studio svetlana smolonskaya and tatyana shcherbina and today andrei chernobay is our guest. good afternoon. hello andrey ivanovich

we are glad to see you in our studio , the draft national security concept has been submitted for public discussion. well, that's the procedure. we have already passed bright. an example of this is the nationwide discussion of the draft constitution e. what are the features of the draft national security concept? what should be paid special attention to, indeed for us, it is already a tradition to submit such important fundamental consulting documents to all public discussions. uh, because firstly, uh, and the developers are smaller because experts are involved, and scientific the community of ordinary citizens can issue proposals, if active , then they will be taken into account, of course. and secondly, this increases the legitimacy of the documents, that the constitution that we have a concept of security, uh, in fact, the concept of security. uh, this is the second most important document after the constitution, which was adopted last year and the constitution came out. uh, a certain methodological basis for the development of the concept developers. they say that e- documents are 70% up to date. uh, most likely

it is, because even acquaintance fugitive, and the project has already been submitted. eh, on the internet. you can find him and meet him. yes? yes, yes, yes, of course, it gives an idea that she is doing a lot, but for the layman, of course, first of all there is a rumor that this is a new area of ​​​​us security. this is biological safety, which is extremely relevant. this applies not only to the species, this whole wide range, very interesting and significant, especially in modern conditions. and i guess it's electoral sovereignty. that's what people kind of know he's rumored to be, but really, of course, it is sometimes much deeper to look there, because it reflects, and the situation in the world, which is now radically changing, and if we take, uh, that project. or rather, to the concept that is now in operation, it has been working for us for the thirteenth year. eh, what does that say? this speaks of the quality of development, and then more projects in their time in the tenth year in this concept, that is, the developers were able to predict the development of a stop in the medium term. still. she

works. uh, other countries, of course. eh, so for a long time the concept of strategy does not work in russia, but changes every five or six years, in principle, the strategy. our security in poland has changed six times over the past 20 years and this period is from 2 to 6 years. that is, such a reaction is more flexible there, probably some manifestations. or maybe this is due to the fact that we were able to predict much more competently, probably, to consider the development of the situation. how many years will the new concept work, but we recently conducted an expert survey, of course, for people like everyone else. now dynamically changing there are experts in their mass suggests that it should work for five years. and if it will be 5 years, this is also a success, because in the international turbulence that we find ourselves in, it is also very difficult, let's put it this way. this uh document was done perfectly, and it would still be preferable to approve it at the entire belgorod native meeting in april , that is, in a year there will still be a lot of changes and

developers, most likely, the developers will have to take these changes into account, because take it out. uh, project concept. naturally, we must wait for questions. here are the delegates. why is it so and why didn’t this come out, that is, there will still be refinement, most likely, the issue of the security concept was discussed during the recent meeting of the supreme state council of the union state in the kremlin, and there it was already discussed about the security concept of the two sides of the state , it was stated that such a document must be developed, it must be or not. what do you think? how long will it take to implement this? project and what fundamentally important points need to be take into account in the concept of security of the two countries, yes, indeed, the concept of security is a very important document , because it affects the security of both russia and belarus, but it should reflect all those moments that we now see, uh, everything that happens in the world and in our region in

eastern europe and specifically in our state. this is not only a military-political situation. this is the economy. this is information security. these are other directions. uh, what time is it? well, the head of state was given a year, but twenty the fourth year must be approved, and therefore the developers, of course, in this period. uh, this will fit quite well, because we know it's a fairly new strategy. with the security of the russian federation, as we said in 1924, she will be able to endure. she is a statement. uh, the concept is based on security, that is, the basis, probably, these two documents will be taken after all. wherever our interest. they intersect, but for a union state for two countries, this is most likely to be the basis, that is, it should melt and be a program document that will show us for a certain period of time. how to protect our interests. e, where are the sources of threats, who will do it, and in his speech at a meeting of the supreme state council of the union state, alexander lukashenko stated how we will

actually protect the national interests of the two countries. let us remind viewers of the conditions associated against belarus russia information political economic war of the international law crisis of the obvious impact of international institutions. us it is necessary to more coordinated and promptly defend and protect the national interests of belarus and russia in the very message , the president knew about this in advance, i openly said. if necessary, we will use everything we have to protect our states and our roads. we will apply everything said alexander grigoryevich, as you know, he does not seem to throw the wind. do you think that western americans have heard all the meanings that alexander lukashenko puts into his messages. so let's call it a message. yes. eh, will it cool them down? we know that we already have to apply, that, well, practically, yes, already in july, uh, nuclear weapons will be deployed on our territory. now there are already

iskanders and so on. and i would pay attention to another phrase. if need be, uh, i mean, we're not threatening anyone. we just warn you guys, let's live together. let's be careful because we have something to answer. indeed, the last year. he probably became such a key in terms of rearmament, and the belarusian army, because before we had the latest military equipment was put into service with russia, this is british equipment. and aviation. now, of course, iskander is a very powerful complex , and it has no equal, we can speak directly in the west , and therefore it is a powerful shield for protecting the military security of belarus, air defense, in my opinion, yes, if i'm not mistaken, it can't his yes yes yes, because, in fact, the case of a rocket, skandars are hypo-sonic weapons. here is the frontier. uh, five speeds. she surpasses her six. that is, it is, in fact, hypersonic weapons, so it’s very difficult to track down intercept missiles, an independent one that goes, uh, on the ground along the terrain or

goes into near space for 100 km. then, uh, in fact, because of the dagger missile, which russia now has. yes, it is very powerful and dangerous for our probable enemy. if they appear, they say again, weapons, of course, and nuclear weapons, that is, nuclear jean now. eh, only the lazy one probably doesn’t talk about it, but you need to understand that mm. this was probably not an easy decision. heads of state. they weighed all the pros and cons, they perfectly understood that there would be a response from the west, yes, well, probably in the situation in the conditions that we are now. it was still the best option. in order to ensure their military security, but because if we are already speaking openly. if we have nuclear weapons at our disposal, then naturally, no one will touch us, because the answer will be very, very, very unpleasant for the attacking side. you know what surprised me that the us let them the reaction to putin's statement was rather restrained, that is, there was none. there is some

kind of surge of emotions, so to speak, condemnations of statements of concern and something else , that is, well, it all went so calmly enough. and listen, it is located 1,000 km from europe. yes, there are few of them, yes, in fact, and europe is suffering now for the united states in all these situations and everything related to ukraine by frost and other points. that is , one does not lose anything, but europe took care, even we see, here are the last a visit to beijing and macron rassoula fondleyn questions about what, including nuclear weapons, do not let them use do not let them place, huh? you can’t place it. it’s elementary that our president said how to do it. you see your nuclear weapons from europe; what it will do to itself in the american continent, and we won’t place it there, but they will do it. no, of course, andrey ivanovich won’t. nuclear weapons, is it timely or maybe it should have been done earlier in order to cool the hot heads. i think, after all, it was timely before, probably,

there was no need for such a thing. although, the warning was sounded more than once by both the state and belarus of russia that there is such a possibility, and in principle, we have always made no secret of the fact that we are in a union state we have a common military security system, let’s put it this way, and therefore we talked about some kind of nuclear umbrella side of russia, that is, we were kind of already covered, but when we see how much the clouds are gathering, uh, around belarus in the west in the north west in the south. here, probably, it has become simply more than some original decisive steps, therefore, i believe that everything was done in its time and justified. everything was done on time. the past week was rich in visits to international meetings. we will talk about some of them , on the eve of the already mentioned higher council of the union state, a meeting between alexander lukashenko and vladimir putin took place, here is what alexander grigoryevich said after the talks. yesterday

, i managed to communicate with a colleague longer than planned. and the more they said the economy or security military-industrial complex military issues defense industry. well, we are entering negotiations, we are satisfied with all the issues discussed during the negotiations. e satisfied, but we know that for quite a long time the leaders of the two countries communicated behind closed doors. you can guess. what issues did they discuss there, as the president said, questions of a closed nature, but he outlined these issues. yes, it is both the security economy and its technical cooperation. these questions, of course, are not for journalists. let's say the same for outsiders. they they also discussed the autopsy, because there , probably, specific terms and volumes were called. uh, the amounts of responsible enterprises, of course, are not for the public, so it had to be

discussed face to face. and maybe some surveys were worked out for the future. uh, because at the heart of all such negotiations on a bilateral basis , including uh, first of all, there is an analysis of the situation, how will it develop some kind of forecast? that, of course, is all, it was the head of state who took into account, that is , it is possible that we are now, uh, observing, oh what we said. this is the first step later, perhaps there will be a second one, depending on how the situation develops. as far as safety is concerned, of course, this is the key topic of our time. there will be no safety. and it's not the economy that matters anymore. nothing else. but all these areas are interconnected, because there is no security without the economy either. so give me the economy, i'll do the rest myself, yes, yes. let's mention one more visit. you already spoke macron in the company of the head of the european commission, ursudov underline went to

china hmm, the politician macron writes about the results of this tournament, it was not possible to convince denpin about the war between russia and ukraine, moreover, what is surprising is that failure was predicted even before the visit even at the stage, as soon as it was announced that it was planned. and why is a macron who cannot restore order in his own country? yes, he has constantly non -stop going there. uh, mr. yes is against pension reform. eh, he can’t restore order there , he goes to china, uh, trying on the mask of a peacemaker. well, what did he expect? well, i would not say that the visit is such an unsuccessful failure. no, he's not a failure. and let's start with the fact that this is not the first visit of european politicians, but at the end of last year it was scholz, yes, and michelle, yes, the first such entry, the beijing path was blazed , now the second entry is here we see macron and ursola in the reservoir and after them goes , firstly , preparations for the eu summit china, which should be in the middle of this year, and secondly,

china, uh, has probably become more attractive as a kind of center. ah, geopolitics, that is, they go to him, but for advice bs request. and as we see, uh, some economic agreements, and now the macron has arrived, uh, in beijing and not only in beijing, the dacha of bedding, china, uh, they have concluded , uh, very important agreements with china in principle, this is both aviation and the aerospace industry and other directions. why china is also important in europe well, firstly, we know that these partners are economically very strong, and about 10% of europe's exports this is china more than 20% of europe this is china, uh, despite the sanctions that are now the first through their the states were against china. ah. china is important, first of all, europe is 98% rare-earth metal semiconductors, rare-earth elements are provided by almost one source from china

. this, of course, is a very important point, because they are no more. where to get, yes , taiwan semiconductors as part of china, let's say so, well, they have their own separate economy, but it occupies more such leading positions. that's because of the sanctions. uh, let's just say that china went up by 20 percent taiwan went up by 30, in my opinion to the conductors, but ahead, and lithium, and the transition to electric vehicles. bring down the batteries again. this is china 97% of europe ahead in china a according to forecasts for the next quarter of a century. it is 17 times the need of european age casting. that is why, of course, all the azores are now turned to china, first of all , economic ones, but in terms of geopolitics, of course, china has become more important for the state. and beijing is a center, as i said, and therefore, given the cooperation and partnership with russia, they also go to beijing in particular. we saw the reaction the european union was on the peace initiative of guardianship in ukraine negative, but, nevertheless

, politicians, one second and third, so one on one, as if they were going and saying that it was like that. hey, how is it official? yes, that is, of course, of course, uh, in any case, even two weeks ago, probably, a month of the defense of the czech republic. i said to chernov, let it be beijing, let it be china, anyone, if only there was peace in ukraine, probably, this position is shared by many politicians in europe, and another thing is that washington does not give them this say, because, well, apparently, unfortunately, europe today is completely under the influence of the united states, it is a state not only of military security, it is of economy and politics, and literally in all these respects, with regard to courses and fundraising. and this is generally interesting for such a brave woman, a hereditary russian baroness. she thunders on march 30. feed your foundation of speech, uh yes, blaming accusing, and in repressions within the country and in some kind of aggressive plans uh outside and literally in a couple of days goes e is not redder in the same beijing now, how she was received and how she

was seen off. almost didn't notice there. she was very offended and humiliated by the fact that when she flew away, she went through a general inspection. uh, here it is with all of us just citizens, that is, there was no enthusiastic reception there. uh, after her statement closer to them, she should be satisfied that they didn’t turn them around at the airport, let’s say, that she was received and accepted, in principle, by the head of state, anyway, because they were, among other things, in the format of three leaders, let’s say so here are the negotiations so well, what else is interesting about it. i would consider her not only as the head of the european commission. she is probably one of the most realistic candidates for the post and general secretary. we know that in september, after all, yes must leave. he twice served his term, already extended for a year, and here is one of the strongest such persons - this is ursula von der lein, therefore, perhaps, she was nevertheless accepted with the expectation of

some kind of future relationship. you said that china is very important to europe. is europe really important to china? china europe is also important, because whatever it is, it's a market. well, we 're going to talk straight finance is money, because that's what it looks like. i have such an opinion that france will just become these , and , let's say, the gates to europe in western china after these agreements, because the agreement is serious - this is a sphere, a very serious space sphere, and there was also a question raised on nuclear energy. and we know that france is actively building power plants around the world. and china is also very much, most likely it will be here such cooperation continues and not in vain, probably, the macron went. and he arrived, after all, not empty-handed, but these statements of his, when he had already returned from china, he began to say that we need to ah, well , move away from using the dollar a little, away from this. this is also somehow connected with the concluded contracts. europe has already

tried to move away from the use of the dollar by bringing the euro. and now we see the politics of china. of course, they are moving away from the dollar, and many countries, entire regions and the middle east are among them they switch to settlements in yuan. that is, uh, not only are we saying that beijing is becoming a set of geopolitics. he is becoming like this now. uh, geo financial hub. maybe yes, because the yuan still shaves, weight, uh, first of all not in the environment , let's say, of the most developed countries, or maybe in the second and third tier countries, which will be much easier, more convenient and safer, and to switch to calculations precisely e, more predictable in evolution in terms of political let's say so what is the dollar? come true let's take a short pause for now, i remind you of our telegram channel, say, don't be silent. subscribe suggest guests. ask questions. we are in touch. and today

our guest is an analyst from the belarusian institute for strategic studies. andrey chernobay. andrey ivanovich well, for now, uh, while the macron went to the big mustache, zelensky went closer. e visit. uh to the dude and marovets e, v. in poland, he was awarded the order of the white eagle, and i must say that this is the highest state award in poland, uh, one of the oldest polish orders, founded in 1705. i am very glad to see, yes. and the funny thing is that in 1705 the famous hetman, ivan mazepa, also received the same award , let's not forget about it. and after the award, zelensky said in the future there would be no political economic borders between our peoples, and what is very

important historically, zelensky dudya raised a number of questions, but it’s interesting, of course, the history of that, yes, the fact is that in 1831 in sambo revolution he was the capital russian pirates, that is, after the suppression of the uprising of 831, let's say more like this, uh , russia gave it he was russian. and, as for the highest award, you know in zelensky it is much higher than them on the mountains of other states. this is the czech white fish, this is the legion of honor of france that is, for this year, and even a little more than a year for him. she has become all breasts in orders, because he actively shows the west how he promotes their interests, defends their interests. but zelensky, in turn, is also the same, probably all european politicians and not only the president of prime ministers and ministers and deputies. he also awarded everyone with ukrainian awards. that is, they have such a parallel life. let's just say that while there ordinary ukrainians are dying at the front, and, accordingly, each other's leadership. eh, they exchange and protect, yes, the highest

awards and so on to joke so a little evil, what, well, what to put on a pillow? well, probably, nevertheless , citizens were allowed in ukraine. poland to hold higher government posts. uh, well, decide, many problems. that is, in principle, uh, hmm, the poles are even, probably, endowed with rights no less than the ukrainians. and maybe even more ukraine is not the first to pass here. remember when the union fell apart and the independence of the baltic countries. this is how, uh, it settled down roughly, uh, remember the president , the prime minister, they all came from where they all came from the west, that is , citizenship was american citizenship, they also held some of these highest posts. that is, the situation was. it is complex in terms of personnel, as it is now in ukraine. i don’t think that behind this is some kind of merger of impoverishment , it is unlikely, because it makes no sense to talk about the independence of ukraine to zelensky and defend it, supposedly from russia at the same time

to hand it over to the west. at least at this stage, they are talking about it. and the fact that there are some closer ties on some bilateral relations. there are many parties in eastern europe who have been talking about this for more than a month and even a year ago. uh, there was also such a thought that if ukraine does not go for this, we will create such a less block from the eastern countries european, which are along the border, so to speak , of the union state. well, a little here at the expense of ukraine, yes, that is, it is quite possible that , uh, such an interstate formation will be created. and if the situation gets completely out of control, because we see how nato does not want to officially intervene in this conflict. eh, and even participating in the negotiations of the rammstein format, nato itself represents itself as an organization. by the way , they say that weapons are supplied by individual member countries. nato is not an organization represents, although the organization is also invested very strong, we see the european union is shaping up and nato is investing and the united states itself. and, that is, everything

is now thrown by the west to defeat russia , i heard the opinion of various analysts that these are the notorious dreams of poland from her husband home. maybe, yes, to prostrate and in general, there is even already talk that they may even have swung at the restoration of the commonwealth, different analysts, express different opinions, well, let 's go back a week on march 31, when the president of belarus in his message, but turned to the peacekeeping system in ukraine and offered a specific option on how to resolve the situation by the minister of the bucharest nine affairs side. uh, they urged not to run into the states, and to lead their troops to all these countries of the eastern flanco. that is, this is from estonia and ending with bulgaria, all this strip . and of course, this is not good, but let's say it is some kind of peacekeeping, that is, in ukraine

it only goes to the scale of the situation in the region. as for ukraine, it is quite possible that someday, uh, this influence this nine to spread to ukraine , at least, it has already been proposed to include finland and sweden in this association . although sweden did not do anything about it. that is, we are observing such polls, that is, let’s say this, zelensky’s tender friendship with poland is not dangerous for us now. well, after all, there is a possibility that, let’s say, if , after all, and more part of the western territories of ukraine departs, then over time, poland , having felt this appetite that has been played out, will be able to threaten the western territory. belarus, so let's see if western ukraine will become part of poland, this is the first. eh, some conditions must be created for this. that is, it will already be a complete collapse of the state of all ukraine, finally irrevocable only in this case, it may be more to make some kind of breakthrough, but whether it is even in this case is also

a big question, because these are their consequences. and some including international plan. this is again hmm aggravation of relations with russia a. it will still be possible to save ukraine, as the state in some other way, but in other directions there will be a government of work, other people will be in power, so this is also. rhetorical will enter for the western rate poland and if the situation changes sharply in ukraine in tours in the other direction. that is, of course, it will be very beneficial for the west to create some new point of tension in order for russia's effort to divert this, maybe somewhere in the south, but there are prerequisites. it may be, uh, belarus is quite possible, that is, it cannot be ruled out 100% that it will no longer decide on some border conflict with belarus uh now in poland announced that it is preparing for a large-scale deployment of the american corps in the polish village will appear 400 km from brest. let's see what kind of base it is, as they say, a new military facility built on

the model of a nato base with an area of ​​​​almost 80,000 m², including more than 100 warehouses, repair and maintenance points for fuel and lubricants equipment, hangars, administrative and residential buildings. several thousand units of military equipment will be placed at the base , including infantry fighting vehicles and artillery vehicles. this. it was carried out many years ago about this base , the construction went on for many years, uh, and the building, i would not talk about the building. there will simply be stored ammunition armament equipment , stocks of various means for a combat brigade group, that is, a mechanism for a reinforced artillery brigade, and tanks and some other forces of combat technical support. why, so that in the event of a crisis in this region of eastern europe, a could be transferred to the united states air force very quickly and already here. all this. here, she is ready to stand and waiting to be supported.

in good condition. we took the equipment, loaded it, refueled it and you can go to battle. that's what this story is for. yes. e. there is also an airfield in the train. there will also be drones. as far as i know, the eu base is american. but this is one moment, and the second we know that literally in the month of march the first was opened. uh, the permanent us base in poland, uh, that is, if, according to the founding act, uh, the russians of the ninety-seventh year in the countries of eastern europe that uh moved to nato after the collapse of the soviet union after the collapse of the warsaw pact, and it was forbidden, uh, the presence of these foreign bases on the territory of these strange permanently, then the exit was on one as on a rotational one, which is a strange baltic and poland and us troops nato troops other countries are on rotational basis and in biden's 22nd year on the eve of madrid itself. it should be stated that russia's link to russia is also not working, and we will be deploying, uh, a military

base on a permanent basis. and here is the first base. she's still small. well, this is the first swallow. it was already open in march from the solemn, that is, american troops. poland is already on a permanent basis. well, america has already invested so much money. in this confrontation with russia, there is a feeling that she no longer thinks. stop, because, well , you can already say at stake whether everything is put or there is still something. what can stop. and america is very active with its base located all over the world, not only bureaus, if we say that now there are about 100,000 in europe military personnel. uh, the americans are connected to this, and including some strengthening in connection with the conflict in ukraine. they still are. there, probably, 80 states and territories of the united states do not take away their military bases, having foreign ones, that is, the us bases are three times larger than the foreign base of all countries of the rest of the world, that is, more than 50 years of billions of united states annually and

invest only in maintaining these basses abroad. this europe is an asian, quiet area. many countries eighty this is saying something, this is the third world , roughly speaking, what they need in europe well, firstly, we see that the united states has not left europe since the end of world war ii. that is, how they entered then as a liberator, and the west so they remained there, and the largest presence, of course, is germany, this is italy. these are parts. spain, but this is already on a permanent basis, and on a rotational basis. for the time being, this is on the eastern flank of nato, and this presence is still ongoing. can u get away from this before can uh, was there an attempt? we are now moving to trump, but because even the future president of the united states, trump tried, but to withdraw a significant part of the troops from germany

, e . it means led e, the decision to withdraw the americans from afghanistan is also a trump slogan, and the agreement was breathed on february 20 , 2020, which gave 14 months. that is, before may 21, all troops were to be withdrawn. and biden. he just faced the fact that there is an agreement he needs to withdraw, but he only took office in january and painfully, in principle, he managed to must. this is until august . uh, although, there were also some overlays, that is, trump now. e america, they are america, she is guided by her current state of being dangerous over the fact that this policy is extraordinary, unpredictable, very bright, and, probably, all these troubles that have been plaguing trump lately. they're primarily about trying to keep him out, and she's running for office somehow, because that with all the biden’s failures, and with the united states essentially

being drawn into this conflict in ukraine, and with the training of the big ones with china, which are still in plain sight, this has been reflected in the country for 22 years and in practical actions we see support for taiwan a-a coverage of china's military bases, including the philippines, south korea and japan e, the establishment of this unit aucus involving australia e, interests in new zealand and so on. that is, it is all right to pass in china naturally to the american people. this, firstly, i don't like it, because the country is becoming more and more aggressive. secondly, this is still taxpayers' money, that is, money must be counted and trump has a chance to play. here on this policy it is opposites. that is, in ukraine , he will say that let's round off. there is nothing to do there for 24 hours i can. well, for 24 years. yes, it won’t pay off, but nevertheless, everything still depends today on washington e, that is, even if ukraine says, we all agree on

everything, we stop the conflict, but washington, uh, does not will let them do it, because a lot of both expressions and techniques of ammunition and finances have already been invested. that is, they want to achieve their goals of weakening russia as much as possible militarily and economically, because in russia there are no potential allies of any kind of china , and the number one goal is still china. but just the other day it appeared, and a message in one social network on trump page. he wrote the third world war. yes, how do you rate it? he didn't explain this. yes, uh, as a matter of fact. he warned that guys, we are moving towards the third world, it's time to stop, because it really is so, and we see how much, uh, the cloud is, how predictable they are, it develops, and it is possible that this conflict in ukraine if it does not stay on time, it will only be uh, flowers, let 's just say, because everything is very serious, everything is very serious, and trump probably. warns about this. well, you say, if you don’t

stop on time, how to stop, but now it’s difficult, that is, there was a milestone when it was possible to stop much easier, and we see that ukraine put them at the negotiating table and in belarus and turkey they were ready to talk. but someone stopped them, who left them, of course, stopped washington. yes, that is, they were not allowed to do it. and now it is already very serious upholstered. i don’t know how much it is, perhaps, of course, we need to look for options. that is, we know the beijing initiative, and the banner of the initiative of the president of belarus e. as far as you know, any initiative now should be welcomed, there are not so many of them. and the louder. they sound. eh, that is, it is necessary in in any case, stop this conflict, because dozens, maybe hundreds of thousands of people on both sides are dying. we know how many millions of refugees, and in ukraine, too, europe , not sweet america hid across the ocean, but, in principle, she feels quite prosperous and even on the investments that she is now making. ukraine, it will still recoup this and the pluses of the industry, new orders, where there

are some political dividends. she will get hers. uh, if the conflict could be stopped at the initial stage, then, probably, still, one could talk about some kind of territorial integrity of ukraine on a large scale, at least even after the recognition of the dpr by russia as an independent state. and still, there were still territories that could be preserved in ukraine, but he did not go. and, of course, the big mistake of ukraine and the west is that they did not comply with the minsk agreements, no matter the fourteenth year, the fifteenth year, because he, too, would collide in the fall of the fourteenth year, he resigned from office in december of the fourteenth of the year. he, in my opinion, said that there were alternatives to the minsk agreements. no, that is, this is one of all nato, he regarded it this way, therefore all this talk there of merkel woland and someone else poroshenko that they were manipulating time, yes, it was visible, because these 8 years. they gave ukraine a lot. uh, a good time for rearmament, we saw that tens of thousands

of military personnel were trained with the west, and the country received weapons equipment, and did not switch to nato standards in training military personnel for nato charters. and that's all seen, but nonetheless. it was a real chance for the only chance for ukraine, uh , to keep its territorial sessions, including keeping the donbass, uh, it was about the fact that there was a special status. e that there was a representation in their verkhovna rada , what was prescribed in minsk, but therefore the paths did not go along the path of militarization. we took the path of escalating the conflict. and what awaits us now, uh, is very difficult to predict, because the situation that has developed now was not calculated for us to expel. no one is russia, ukraine, the west, washington, no one calculated the audible opinion of some experts who allegedly say that only a change of the ukrainian president can lead to the fact that, in fact, the parties sit down at the negotiating table, or, in principle,

some kind of movement towards a truce, uh, towards a m-th cessation of hostilities, at least the active phase. well, as for me, uh, i think that there have already been so many presidents in ukraine and everyone said that he was ready to stop this conflict and would do everything possible. that is the point here probably not in the president of ukraine, you know. in my opinion, there is a rational grain in this, because zelensky is very much mired in obligations. and the new face will say, i didn't agree with you. i didn't take anything from you. i didn't promise you anything. that is, there is a chance to start, at least, some kind of negotiation process, and there is a chance to start the peace process, but not from zelensky. this is clear. here's another statement by clinton's squirrels recently, how would you regard the fact that he regrets his participation in ukraine's decision to destroy its nuclear weapons in 1994. and if we remember at the munich conference in 2022, zelensky stated that he would like to reconsider these decisions

. yes. e. what is the probability that the states of nato and the eu will decide to put e on ukraine to introduce nuclear weapons on its territory? and let's step by step alone the fourth year. yes, in january there was a tripartite agreement. uh, ukraine has agreed to withdraw its nuclear weapons. we remember that after the collapse of the soviet. it remained in russia, ukraine , kazakhstan, belarus, and already in december 1994, it was, in fact, signed into the morando of budapest, but under guarantees, but by the nuclear powers. uh, the united states, france and russia, and ukraine got rid of nuclear weapons that were on the territory of the question. tom could ukraine - contain these weapons. it's not easy. here we put it there. no, this is some kind of permanent routine technical work, but those services are replaced by nuclear

warheads, because the service life is not so long, they have 10-12 years there. that is, uh, 2-3-5 years would pass there, and there would be a need to change them, wherever they changed, they do not have the conditions for this, there is no industry, that is, it was necessary to apply again in russia, uh, would put russia no this question. this is the first moment. eh, the second west then, but saw this configuration a little differently. it was the collapsed soviet union and four states with one ice cream. uh, no one knew the unpredictable development of these states. by which way it will go, how close it will be to the west or to russia, it was naturally beneficial to get rid of these weapons, and russia , in principle, did not have to have either. here are the weapons in other countries. then all the same, the control center for this weapon of clarity. all the same, he was in russia, that is, they bore such a moral responsibility, even for the consequences of their stay. these weapons are in these countries, and therefore a decision was made to withdraw, therefore what is now, uh, ukrainians say, including zelensky on a

dmitriev conference. in february of the 21st century, what clinton said is regrettable, but you can regret it, but in my opinion, when politicians make a decision. and here now they understand that this option is the most effective later. for some time, he can say that we did something wrong, but they didn’t do it wrong then, but something went wrong after that, that is, if there hadn’t been this militarization of ukraine, there would have been no aggravation of relations with russia there were no these actions of ukraine in the donbass when if it was possible to resolve all this more or less peacefully , then the question that i regret signing these agreements would probably not arise now. can ukraine now supply itself with nuclear weapons? i don’t think that the united states, and even more so, france, someone great britain will go, but in order to violate the agreement reached, because even the weapons that are supplied to belarus, it will still be russian, probably, this is not distribution for other countries. it's like heads of state saying why america is it the same in five european countries? yes

, they are in the interests of ensuring their own security. can ukraine try to develop its own nuclear weapons? and the second question, probably, all the same. maybe because of the scientific and technical potential. there is no matter what kind of weapon it will be. it will, of course. first of all, tactical, because there are carriers. will they let it be done? it seems to me that the west will not allow this in the first place, because this is the unpredictability of the consequences. that is, i think she's nuclear weapons against ukraine can be put a fat cross for a while. let's break after a short pause and return to this studio again, while subscribe to our telegram channel. it is called say and be silent, and look for all our releases on the youtube channel of belarus alone and on the website of the bell telegram company. churches

do not sound battle he is a prisoner of the royal city had a sonorous political role, we will recognize you behind the architectural monuments of belarus is the best butt of the style of the bars bonfire proteemnitsa unique messens. they work at the largest machine-building

enterprises of belarus. i am over 55 and i am not shy of my age. i do not look at my age, but i try to work and benefit people, what is innovation in my eyes, a new technique was dictated by time. uh, move, develop something new , they stop on the spot, it will not be difficult for them to tell about how giants of agricultural machinery are created from scratch, when , uh, components come to us, these are spars. some amplifiers and ramp assembly presents uh with wallpaper. yes, a very large adult constructor, and they go through the paint cleaning there. this is a beauty salon. for the engineering project one day. i am very satisfied

with life, i see a tractor. i think that the world lacks justice for a detailed conversation about the global and the innermost. there is an awareness that you are a member of society here. you can develop and realize yourself. any data about a person should be collected only to the extent necessary to achieve a specific goal. that's when we talk about fusion. we must take into account the fact that this will affect everyone. i think it's short. it is rather an honor to be useful to the motherland and i want to apply all my strength, mental moral quality to my professional life experience only for the benefit of my state. i really wanted to hear it , i really wanted to hear this particular project markov

nothing personal. watch the new episodes on the belarus 24 channel . on the air say again, don't be silent, and we have a military analyst from the belarusian institute for strategic studies as our guest. andrey chernobay. andrei andrei ivanovich, we have already stated that we will definitely talk about nato expansion in this program. and just recently, finland became already in the thirty- first, in my opinion. yes, this is the alliance, and a year ago you spoke about this step. let's remember your comment. will turkey blockade states? i don’t know, so i can assume that, perhaps, they will let finland through, and sweden will stop, that is , such an intermediate option e is not ours, not

yours, how to save face and this concession make a little time, we'll see. well, it's been less than a year. yes, 17 is less than a year old. it was yes, the broadcast was on may 17, that is, in mid-may a couple of days before this broadcast, and the parliament of sweden of finland voted for nato entry, and on may 18, a day after the broadcast, they filed applications for nato, but in general, forecasts for analysts are a matter so ungrateful because analysts don't tend to make predictions. uh, very difficult very rarely do not come true. that's if analytics predicts claims it has not been forgotten. this, of course, is a blow to the name, therefore, either they give such a fork or several options, let's say, so clipped, as it should be. they say there is. uh, worst-case scenario is best-case scenario. and so, let's say, yes, i dared, yes, a year ago i could practically make such a forecast, on what it was based, it was based on the first on the situation that was developing in the three electoral campaigns. uh, last fall

. this is the parliament, sweden this spring , the parliament of finland and finally, the presidential elections. e in turkey who us waiting in the month of may and uh, here's another factor. these are the kursk terrorists, with whom this tour is leading such a fight, but because after erdogan. uh, he listened, but he didn’t take it with hostility, but he didn’t speak favorably about it and hinted at problems, uh, with terrorists and right after that, erdogan said this, and he is a strong ambitious politician self-respects, and in stockholm they held some kind of advisory council of these kurdish organizations, which turkey considers, uh, theoretical and the us state department attended this event supervised. naturally, there was an insult to the president of turkey

, it was an insult to all of turkey and it could be assumed that he would not tolerate it, and finland behaved more humbly, so i assumed that they would still let finland into finland, this is sweden, at least at this stage will not enter, which is dangerous. this entry into finland is necessary, if finland behaves, and neatly, and wisely, then a big threat. it won't present. and if she still behaves, but for now, uh, everything talks about this, and she's all these washington ones. as for nato's plans, of course, this is a serious moment, these are two regions. and this and the baltic region is erotic, that is, we can say that the fundamentals will be aggravated in these two regions. and what is beneficial for nato in finland? firstly, we know that the three baltic countries, lithuania, are latvianized. from the rest of the nato bloc. only in poland, this isthmus of suvala in the corridor, we will speak directly. if there is a big war. god forbid, of course, then nothing from him will remain. and these three sides will be

torn off, and finland gives a chance. help them, because there is not such a long distance from her to tallinn, that is , such a kind of bridge, this time, and the second we are looking at washington's ambitions in the arctic, and the three countries are now in fact, and russia is trying to lead in the arctic the united states and china, as an arctic state , have their own interests, of course. washington is trying to prevent. uh, not russia, not china why does he need competitors, of course, of course, and finland will be a very big help here to provide, because the finnish armed forces are small in peacetime, but in wartime they are very solid, plus a big thought, they are ready to work in northern arctic conditions, including aviation, and the finns are buying 64 f-35 aircraft. this is the latest american fifth generation fighter. that is, it is very strong aviation. and what about the free border? we know that more than 1300 km. in

general, this border, of course, creates a problem for both russia and the nato bloc itself, that is here is a question. can finland close this section, but they will close anyway. and here, uh, it is possible to deploy some uh military justified, finland uh. this is not an expansion from finland when joining nato, e, i didn’t stipulate special conditions for myself if in sweden a magdalena andersen when she was still prime minister she applied, she says we will join nato, but we will not deploy nuclear bases on our territory . we will not be officially at home finland fell on april 4th and just before the ceremony, the journalist addressed uh, nato secretary general stoltenberg with this very question will be placed during the base , and he replied to finland that if finland wishes, it will not, if it does not wish , that is, well, here is finland and here asked. question from finnish minister of defense

anti kaino. he said that it would just be shrunk to be discussed second in line. that is , we are retreating the first plastic, and then we will discuss about, uh, the justification, moreover, as far as i know, now hold finland there is a processing of internal documents that did not allow the deployment of nuclear weapons in its territory. that is, they will do this slide, that is, in fact, the legal authorities will allow it if necessary. including deploying nuclear weapons, and how far it will go. uh, we'll look , but now it's hard to say, uh, because russia will unequivocally take measures, and we know that the announced deployment of the army corps along the finnish border. and we know that the central military district is again divided into two districts before moscow and dedicated leningrad e, that is, the territory that used to be, and the land part, let's say, was guarded by the coastal troops of the russian northern fleet, will now be a full-fledged military district with all the ensuing consequences. uh,

that is, well, the finnish girl has to watch how sometimes she has already lost by the fact that she, uh, came out. that's from this decades of decades, in principle, the status. i didn’t join him if no one would touch her, because no one threatened. uh, spoil relations with russia and it will also affect political relations. it won't have much effect on the economy. well, such a situation has developed, and, uh, they didn’t hold a referendum, neither side, nor the second, that is, the democrats sucked the decision of the parliament, the decision of the ruling party. and here and there, and when , at the beginning of the twenty-second year, before the start of the special operation, a survey was conducted, then in finland less than 30% of the population were ready to act ; at the end of the twentieth year, already about 80%. that is, such a dynamic has gone, because this fear is incomprehensibly pumped up from side, and europe from the side of the states enjoyed the moment. this is where they came up with. andrey ivanovich let 's return from finland to the long-suffering ukraine in the final, uh

, it has been promised for many years to be accepted into the alliance and the issue is planned to be discussed at the july nato summit in vilnius. what do you think? do you think the west will dare to move from promises to actions towards ukraine and you correctly said that for many years ukraine has been promised membership and some steps, but in fact, concrete steps, uh, that would they say that ukraine is confident that nato is moving forward has not yet been done. and it's unlikely to be done. and the fact that in vilnius you yourself see nato , the issue of ukraine's membership in the alliance will be raised unambiguously. uh, well, to get up not to know what to decide, even if we hypothetically assume that ukraine's application will be accepted by the offensive in nato approved at the summit, then the ratification by the parliaments of all thirty states. it will take more than one year and it is unlikely that it will, uh, actually be achieved. maybe you can see how many problems that in the first place hit the block. uh, in europe, that is

, ukraine is a very problematic state now and take it to your company. no , of course, and therefore such workarounds, about which we have already talked about this interaction. with poland, these are some kind of bilateral multilateral agreements for attempts, to build some such bloc on the eastern flank of nato , that is, bypassing it. uh, ukraine’s entry into nato , nevertheless, somehow help her, and by arming equipment, training personnel in order to prolong. this is a conflict with russia as much as possible, weakening russia, as we have already said, and political economic military terms. thank you very much for coming to our studio and answering difficult questions in an accessible language. we still wish that your forecasts come true and be grateful. we are tatyana for us svetlana smolovskaya. we say goodbye to you until the next broadcast. goodbye. goodbye. and now andrei chernobay is speaking. we live in a very difficult unpredictable time, and the world is changing and far away. it is not always better to go

aside, so i would like to wish first of all a belarusian. yes, and probably to all people peace, and peaceful life is good, but so that all conflicts stop.