tv Asia Edge Bloomberg January 12, 2014 10:00pm-11:01pm EST
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miners. the metal at the highest. digging deep in indonesia. the winners and losers after they put more while materials under local control. we will get reaction from jakarta. >> i am zeb eckert. coming up, an exclusive chat. president of the euro group. we will update you on the europe. all of that and more on this addition of "asia edge." >> a good morning to all of you. a look at the markets. they are up high for the day. fairly mixed at this point. both what happened on the weekend and what is happening right now. the jobs numbers over in the u.s. on friday. that is pushing down the yields in the bond market and putting pressure which is driving up currencies across the region today. in commodities, exports.
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indonesia, taking effect on the weekend. there is more clarity. and jakarta, it is up over 2%. and you pointed out am a gold prices are up. that is pushing up gold among the region. and bangkok, opening up. we are watching very closely what is happening there. they are looking to shut down the capital. i will be back later with more details. back to you. >> the top story. the operation to shut down bangkok and topple the prime minister. we have live images from the capital. a man was actually shot overnight. the protesters. it would be the biggest antigovernment road tester in this -- antigovernment protest in this round.
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you are out on the streets. what -- is it -- what is it like? is there a lot of anger? well, i was just down at the intersection directly from where we are doing the report. the atmosphere was electrifying. no anger. it is a case of -- people cheering. the leader was onstage. she was make a speech anti-. thousands clapping away. cheering and whistling. the atmosphere is one of festivities. that does not take away from the fact that they are trying to pressure the prime minister yingluck to step down. they said they will continue to protest. whether or not they will succeed in doing so, what have to see. to see how many eventually.
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seven intersections have been blockaded. traffic is being diverged to do. no official number just yet. something. what are people tell you about the success of this movement could have? could there be a chance of them succeeding? >> the demonstration is self is not likely to bring down yingluck. there have to be an intermission for the military. we spoke to some military political commentators who told us that one of the key reasons why this demonstration/protest is happening is to instigate an incident of violence that would parliamentary to take power and possibly put in place an interim government. it is really too early to say whether that will happen. we know some political theentators have said
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person was leaving antigovernment road test may be losing support. his movement was meant to be peaceful. it is turning violent. it is something they do not want to see. we have to wait and see it in the coming hours and days. if that will happen. >> to buy very much. other stories we are following. -- >> thank you very much. -- other stories we are following. lenders are relying on debt. ory said it will be diluted not without keeping capital ratios and banks. a volkswagen. vw taken the top spot. the first time in nine years. on the up. helping the german car company. it is the world's biggest automaker by 2018. without months of debate on this. finally, indonesia is a banning exports for mineral ore.
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compromise.-minute they are word about destruction of copper shipments. .t limits all raw materials even minerals for refinery. nameshin speaking to big from the asian financial for him -- forum. one told us the coming 12 months would be a big deal for corporate takeovers. >> we have a year from the m&a standpoint, an acquisition. volatility in australia. we think m&a will be a feature. it will continue to be a future in 2014. >> the former governor of new zealand central-bank said domestic demand will grow this year. >> for the emerging the markets, -- tradetory of demand
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gronk. its domestic demand driven. and in many cases, economies are looking much more how they use consumption and how it is changes. it is still very globalized. traditional trade is going to be quite to the driver it has been in the past. >> one of hong kong's top financial people said tapering might have an effect at rebranding growth in europe will be more important. aree is -- when you tapering these purchases of the debt with the interest rate expected to be rising at some point and time, the market is going to try to figure out what this means. we watch very carefully. the markets will react to that. we will see uncertainty and
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volatility is this year. given that, the economic theme, it will be recovery based. there will be a good performs of the u.s. and europe. let's head to the event where the zeb eckert is standing by with our next guest. good morning to you. we have a top against a warehouse. we are pleased to welcome the finance minister from the netherlands. and also president of the euro group. thank you for stopping by. it is a busy day. a lotme to asia certainly of investor interest and what is happening in europe. a bit of optimism. can you give a sense from your as youtive and certainly work with your counterparts across the eurozone? >> what made a lot of progress over the past year especially the eurozone. dealing with major issues.
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though last year, a strong emphasis on budgets will stop getting their budgets right. the emphasis is changing to structural reform. and dealing with the banks, banking union is the top issue. we are pushed forward the legislation. we'll be up to work on the banking union. at the end of the year, one of the banks are sound and safe again. these are the top issues for us. we are making a lot of progress. >> the political will to get this done, does it seem to be there or have like a few years go? >> the sense of urgency is there and the will is stronger than ever. the main issues regarding the bank and the structural imbalances in our economy are throughout the eurozone north and south. a sense of urgency is very strong. >> and the critics will say
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landing as not where it should be to support economic growth. if you look at any banks right now, what is your opinion? should they do that? the economy taking the temporary hit of availability to avoid future problems. >> what you see is the problem of credit availability especially the larger companies throughout europe is able to invest once again and are investing. the process of going to asset quality review and preparing for the union will show the banks are already in advance billing with their problems. taking losses were necessary and finding new funding and strengthening their balance sheets and preparation. that is a good sign. they are not waiting for the actions of the ecb. banks are going ahead and getting it together. which will help the recovery in the eurozone.
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>> less tough about the conflict of the ecb mission. -- let's talk about the conflict of the ecb mission. the central and multiple parties , how can they come together and resolve this? what should they ecb's mission be? now the of learned the lessons of the crisis. >> there are a number of issues. the capital requirements which is the implementation of basel three. we reached an agreement on supervisory role of the ecb which stars as of this year. then we which an agreement on the mechanism throughout europe. not just the eurozone. including rules which are fundamental to sustainable banking. finally, an agreement on a resolution framework. it includes a resolution fund. that will start as of 2016. it will be the last resort in a
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process of dealing with banking risk. it is a last resort. the first one as getting the balance sheets up to scratch and having good supervision. as a necessary, applying the rules. that is how we will get to the banks healthy and contributing to new growth. >> a very briefly. -- at therns you out outset, the top priority that the eurozone faces? functionb effectively as a euro area advisory without a central bank failure agency, is that possible? >> there will be an agency. there will be a banking resolution authority as of 2016. and preparing in advance, we will take the banks through the resolution -- i am sorry, the process of assessment of the balance sheets. that is a crucial process. the biggest challenge this year.
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the banks are moving in advance and dealing with our problems. as will very much a strengthen the economic recovery as a ander to higher growth -- the lead to higher growth. >> it is fascinating to see asian investors talking about europe. we wish you luck. good luck. thank you for your time. president of the euro group joining us live at the asian financial forum. >> thank you. later in the program, india. we will visit jakarta. banker.joined by a the chief asia economist looking at the global growth. this is "asia edge."
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>> you are back with "asia edge ." our next guest has spent 16 years with imf. pretty to see you. ok, you're been doing some work on the global economy. isn't it?ing better, the bright spot has been the u.s. on friday, the jobs report. let's not forget, it was very -- enter 2014, a lot optimism and the market. we are looking at a betty year because of tech in the u.s. and the eu is on a recovery footing. growth is positive and all that bodes well for this region. we have two reminders in recent weeks of the fragility that remain. a week said the pmi for china, weaker than expected. very weak jobs report on friday
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out of the u.s. tells us that in the recovery is still rather fragile. we are going to probably increase our u.s. growth outlook because of the positive developments in there. we are being cautious. we had a 2.3% forecast for 2014. maybe what increase it a couple 0.2%. of course, europe. the head of the euro group was with us. talking about how things are moving along. does it surprise you about the turnaround taking place? there are a lot of countries hoping to see more of a turnaround. we are seeing spanish bond. you are cognizant of that. market tensions have eased in europe. policymakers have convinced markets that they are going to implement over time reforms necessary to keep the euro and in the union together.
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the real outstanding issue with the banking union and asset quality review and that can cause the market to do -- or lose some confidence. the generally what we see is a drastic improvement in market confidence, but it has not translated into real activity on the ground. that is what we are waiting for. but that's the thing. we still have black spots. one is france. them not seemingly done the austerity that others have done. ofwhat we can say to some our view on the eurozone is a recovery in place. trends have been encouraging. the woods.not out of what we can say on the positive side is the tail winds are reduced to a year ago, we were so worried about the outlook for the euro itself. >> survival is being questioned.
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>> very survival. not that long ago. tell risks of the economy have been reduced. of theu.s., the form fiscal wrangling behind us. we are beyond that. theink our outlook for global economy is similar to what we had a few months ago. but tell risks are to reduce. >> they are less -- they are fewer unknowns. were talking about that the other day. what does this mean for this part of the world? are looking at 2014 to be shaping up to be marginally higher than 2013. the risks i would flat -- flag it said tapering. the markets have been calm because much of the expectation were priced in. our calculations are perhaps
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80%-90% of the adjustment that have taken place. but there is going to be fit and starts to the year. we do not know the calendar of tapering and whether it will slow down. it is data dependent. we are flagging tapering as a risk. one of the things we are looking at is domestic demand across the region. we think it will weaken this year because a higher financing ists as tapering takes place going to translate into slower credit. >> interesting. >> can instrument demand pick up quickly enough to offset the weaker -- >> whether we like it or not. maybe perhaps then they should. >> geopolitical risks and domestic politics across the region. you have been talking about thailand. that is just one risk. we have elections coming up. talking to the
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regulars have agreed to soften the restrictions on banks largely to help a boost lending to smaller businesses. john joins me with the details of that. >> this has created a bit of a break. have been lobbying for this. clearly since 2008. that was the start. and also last june. it is a bit of a change. a slight revision to the plan. it is not been finalized. this for example, they will avoid doubling derivatives. a process agreement or repos. an off-balance calculation. that helps the mechanism. what it means is when it comes to lending to small businesses and enterprises, the debt is less. --ivatives are not
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derivatives are slightly difficult to read. that is quite important. iii.do maintain the basel banks witho have strong capital reserves. it would be similar. and the money would be going to the government. that is what they really want. 2%. the vockel rule looking for more than 3%. we will see. it will be more stringent. iii, draghi, he has been confident. they will kick into action. things. trying to avoid the global financial crisis. if that happens. the other part is how can it
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anybody say no to support a small business? that politically is something regulators cannot say no to. which bans lobbied successfully for that? >> citigroup and bank of america did that. slight reprieve. would they stop lending? that is important. leeway,do get to the the prerequisite should be start lending. otherwise, the deal is off. >> that is it. john dawson, thank you. >> let's find out what is happening. to sydney. -- rise in the price of gold is not helping the mineral rich and overweighted aspx. down by 0.3%.
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reflecting the overall picture with asian-pacific stocks on the way up. the dollar is weakening a bit at the moment. this is helping investors to way up prospects weigh on the back of the u.s. jobs report. down 0.1%. that is the hang seng. the asia-pacific equities at the moment are at the highs of the day so far. that is what we have at the moment. this is bangkok. these are live images. the capital. being blockaded by opposition. the opposition to the government. more on that is next. ♪
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msci.down 0.5%, the it wasn't down as much as 0.8% earlier. the u.s. jobs numbers. that is pushing down the value of the dollar. the exchange rate. the euro, here we go. , up for a third straight today here. currency. the aussie dollar. that is gaining. we are up about zero point nine percent. a full $.90 for the first time since mid-december. 24 hour chart. zero point four percent. what else are we watching? -- 0.4%. -- what other we watching? right here. the japanese yen. it has moved to the downside as far as the dollar is concerned. low 104uch, trading the
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for some time. japanese markets are closed. no reaction. korea ong in south that yen/won. tell us more about the regional currency especially the rupiah. >> 2 stories. we are watching the rupiah. that is strengthening of the most. here we are. a six week time. we are up nearly one percent for the indonesian currency. taking effect on the weekend. the impact they are seeing on addcurrency, it could be to 0.3% of gdp. you have analysts and economists for example and jakarta saying pricing into the currency, that could help the rupiah because
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the increase of value of the commodity exports at of the country. another currency we are watching is -- this is the one day charge. here we go. we are strengthening. it has been trade at this level for the past week. we have leveled off. keep in mind, take us back further to two years ago, that has really been weakening. to the extent of 60% since april of last year. taken back maybe naturally years. ears, the protest we are seeing the developing slowly. >> that is right. we wanted to you live to bangkok. the operation to shut down the thai government has begun. our correspondent said in the nature.calm and good one paper does report a man was shot overnight although it is
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not known who opened fire. thousands of police and troops have been deployed to counter what the protest hauled the bangkok shut down in an attempt to topple prime minister yingluck. they want to do next month's elections postponed and she said it will go on at planned. as they rumble on, the company that helps with the tension prospering. itl allen looks at the role is playing. her election in 2011, thailand's prime minister yingluck has had a rougher ride. her political opponents consider her a proxy to her brother. he lost the job in dramatic circumstances in 2006. when they are controlling a he and his family got a tax-free $1.9 billion and a whole lot of criticism.
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and to protest. eventually, a military coup. --for the analysts, traditions the stock could rise 54% after sinking 31%. chain of events set in motion by the cell continues to unfold. by aand remains a grip struggle for power. paul allen, bloomberg. >> indonesia. mineralexports of raw ore. it is moving commodities in this part of the world and the price of nickel. the latest on these developments. jakarta. what is the latest? >> well, the government is rolling on minerals as bargain
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buying and more shares of companies that in the view has thelocked uncertainty of future -- unlocked uncertainty in the future. or refinediron ore and the country came in effect yesterday. indonesia accounts for 2% of global copper supply according to goldman sachs. globalmates it is 20% of nickel supply. the ruling has driven the has drivenrices that and expectations that minimal producers in the philippines will benefit. now, let's take a look at house of the mining shares are doing. shares and the producer of nickel and copper and gold rose about 1.5%. ned 5%.al vale gai
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that is the latest. back to you. >> joining us from indonesian. >> more reaction on the indonesian exports ban. e. commodities them jakarta. the index. the gains well not seen in several weeks. if i am not mistaken, the biggest one-day jump as far as the index since september. perhaps a more clarity in that space. staying on commodities. i want to talk about gold. excuse me. a big jump in gold futures on friday. we are now trading close to $20 an ounce compared to thursday. the bondes market and markets.
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alabi gold mining stocks gaining 10%. mining stocks gaining 10%. , wasn't the case might -- a lot of these companies what the case might be, a lot of these companies -- the takeover. i am not naming companies. with thes going on gold. we had to topple last year. as an effect, people are thinking is this the right time to consolidation or more mining deals? or a rebound? a look at that. is right. 2013 was not the best year for gold. it was the worst year since 1981. gold prices job -- dropped 27%. , if you're holding gold.
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the returns over the last 12 see it toowe do not often. i put it on the screen. the gold corporation. they have seen slides. you can see the trajectory downward. images ofmirrors other mining companies. new crest and newmont. it is down. down. gold mining deals could rebound this year from this and near decade low in 2013 stop last year, to give you a sense, we saw the 10 billion dollars and it deals what's happening. the lowest since 2004. ast players were focused on and step scaling up. looking ahead, the write-downs atomize what added cost reduction to the equation, they are spending to do better and they usually do. it may generate free cash flow.
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that is the highest in eight years. the exploration company which are not making money or losing cash. they are bleeding money. they may have more incentive to sell than continuing to look for financing. they wanted the cash, but it is not within their reach. that is exactly what michael faralla has to say. he said companies oppose access has been cut off because of the current market sentiment will be compelled to consider mergers to survive onto and conditions and approval. that is the key. that is what you are looking at. the stars may be more in line for deals. to pull the trigger this year, it might be quite low given that some of these companies are really from the pain and the misery from those efax of last year. that's really looks at what is
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happening. jpmorgan chase said appetite for gold m&a will be tempered by high levels of debt. could also hurt the equation. that is a sense of how things are shaping up. it was like consolidation after the storm and could be a busy year for the bankers. >> well, coming up. protesters in indonesia. of thatalking about all and more. our next guest a joins us. we have a group discussion. ♪
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very festive. of course, foreign investors are not filling festival. >> no. you see it at a four-year low. quite a lot of capital output from thailand and other emerging markets the cause of the qe tapering. the domestic political situation in thailand is certainly causing outpost. >> is it anything to worry about? materially, the opposition, though most procapitalist out of the political party. a this has been coming for long time. to me, it was like the two sides are not willing to negotiate. we do not know how it would end up. the economic impact is so much cushioned by the fact that exports make up a larger share of gdp growth in thailand. eventually, if it persists, we
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will see investment slowing and consumers that consumer sentiment to be had. we'll need to lower our growth projection will stop >> they collated the tech thailand -- they call it a the tech thailand. even though the uncertainty for many years, it does not persist. but that is a good point. the economy has been resilient. when i was working at the imf, i theed on thailand during dark days of 1998 and 1999. it to look too many business people that it was never going to emerge from that. they came that warren. they came back as a tiger. it ties up too much to lose. it will come to resolution. a lot can go wrong. >> will a push into a deficit? they are sitting on a fence right now. how deep can it get?
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you're the exports. it is the outpost. not many people come to visit. that is a big problem. >> 7% of the economy is tourism. it could dry up. investment inflows could dry up. exports.s and lower that could cause of deficit to widen at a time when they do not want that to happen and the contents of qe tapering. >> against hong kong. >> thank you for the relevance. >> you are talking about the chinese. >> hong kong. >> 2 thinks. ieve --gs i bel [laughter] >> they said hold till i keep
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seeing rate has gone to 40%. a lot of tourist -- they said hotel occupancy rates have gone down to 40%. -- a lot of tourist -- >> they are hit by the role of the monarchy. i am concerned we are in a bout of much longer turbulence. it seems different to me. it seems to be coming to a head for a long time and we are reaching the point now. fors already been persisted some of months. we are seeing the impact of tourism already in of the numbers. let's hope that the situation calms. if they can control the political situation in the near term, probably the domestic economy. avoid?d you buy or >> john's trip to bangkok.
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--a well, you know >> he is retaining his money now. [laughter] , andr long-term investors now might be a good time to look at the thailand for fdi investors looking to buy assets. they do bounceback from these political events. i think they have too much to lose not to resolve the problem. if you have an optimistic view as i do about thailand over the long-term, now is the time to get in. i would probably hold off on the softer markets. until this uncertainty is reduced. >> indonesia. what you think about it this ore ban in place right now? >> longer-term. they want to the value to change, don't they? they want to profit. it is a good thing on paper.
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when will they bridge the gap. as you say, you have to be something that just about that with the idea of diversifying the economy and bringing -- you have to be sympathetic with the idea of diversifying the economy and bringing it all sure. increaseave seen is an in nationalism and protectionism and resource nationalism. as the starhailand of asia. it is still a star over the long term. clearly, as you can see, with the rupiah over the last year and they hit and they took during may and august and the capital outflows and it now elections are coming up, now is the time to reinvigorate reform and ensure investors that indonesia remains open and trade . it still is. key not only for indonesia but the rest of asia stop >> steve, thank you.
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who will win? >> they qualify. 2 of the players are working as bankers. one is -- [indiscernible] and one is my friend. [laughter] good luck, you should say. >> good luck naturally. >> a friendly support. always from this group. the tennis world. the first grand slam of the year after the break. the big numbers at the australian open. ♪
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speculation that the r.b.i. >> let's check in some the stories making headlines around the world. diplomat has been assigned to a -- after leaving the u.s. she was arrested last month accused of visa fraud and paint her made it less than half of the new york minimum wage. less thanher maid half of the new york minimum wage. it has strained u.s.-india relations. has been sworn in for her second term as prime minister after an election marred by violence. a majority. at least 18 people were killed and
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dozens were injured. earning -- burning out of control in australia. they are facing soaring temperatures. the heat wave continues over much of the country. it is the smashing records and described as being "a highly significant event." parts of australia are spending to reach 50 degrees on thursday. >> the australian open is underway. the grand slam tournament of the year. with a six level when. -- love win. she is among the favorites. couldn't she get past serena williams? some say she could get past. -- one otherasons
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result to note is venus, serena's sister is out. the first match is underway. the facts and figures. ♪ >> the world the best players have gathered in melbourne. the tennis open. will500,000 spectators attend. 50 million people watching at home. the competition is going to be hot. was not enough, players will have to compete with temperatures over 40 degrees celsius. it will be no exception. to combat the blistering heat, medical staff are kept on standby. even a policy. they're the only one to have this measure. the umpire can suspend the game if they believe it is dangerously hot.
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there are over 300 ball of boys and girls. they will wear special gel net coolers. it is hot enough to shrink the tennis balls. over 48,000 will be used. 00 rackets will be restructured to sweating players will go to sweating players will go through 30,000 towels. be thousands bottles of water's bought. it'll would be a lucrative tournament for the singles. the cities always a winner. they estimate two point 3 million u.s. dollars will be pumped into the economy. >> he has finally gotten their stop santa claus reaching the space station. he arrived on a private enterprise caps on.
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by theas captured robotic arm. three days after blasting off from virginia. these guys got to the present. christmas presents for the astronauts. a tad late as bad weather postponed the launch. santa claus is excuse. >> better late than never for the astronauts. critical success. >> leonardo dicaprio won the golden globe for best actor in a comedy for "the wolf of wall street." >> the rise and fall of a real- life stocker. he's been to 22 months in prison spentcurities fraud -- he 22 months in prison for securities fraud. the golden globes also -- >> apparently, sprinklers went
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graham. the opinions and views expressed do not reflect those of bloomberg lp, its affiliates or its employees. >> the following is a paid 25sentation for focus t brought to you by beach body. >> it's about time. the number one reason people have for not working out is they don't have time. >> i have four kids. i work 60 to 70 hours a week. >> i don't want to work out for no our. are you kidding me? i don't have the time. >> no time to work out? no problem
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