tv On the Move Bloomberg February 26, 2014 3:00am-4:01am EST
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and that is encouraging and that is where they see the demand is. that is where the money is. >> we will wait to see how that open spirit of -- open. hans, the story just gets bigger, doesn't it? >> it gets bigger. the details get better. secret meetings in secret elevators. there are some 10,000 clients that have tank, airport stations at the bank, it is a remarkable story. rady dougan is going to be on the hot seat today in washington. there is very little that he can do. he has got to get ahead of his narrative one way or another. >> we will get the full rundown later. she is back. this woman knows no bounds. >> i am moving from barcelona to beer. the biggestnbev, rumor in the world.
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they are making the array into craft beers. that is the trend in the u.k. and the united states as well. they're making the likes of goose island ales, which apparently is a mix of chocolate, caramel, and vanilla. >> stock is up one third of one percent? >> sales are up 4.6%. that beat estimates. a say they are optimistic in the u.s., mexico, brazil. that is important. >> we will leave that there. looking at ea ds, the stock is up. inbev is up. >> let's check out the market open. future points are a little low through the morning. , consumerterday socket -- consumer confidence helping data. it is not clear what is
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happening it. the dax, no action there. to the first five minutes of trading in europe. what i am watching his airbus. formerly known as eads, profit comes in 20% higher for the year. there were some big one up costs as well. the chief executive is not happy about that. you can see the clock -- stock climbing. monthly eduction for planes was increasing. it will be producing 46 per month. that is worthy money is -- where the money is. stock is up almost 1.7% where it is traded. theoining me now to discuss global markets in context is joe richardson. he is the chief executive of rmd wealth management.
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china -- i am struggling here they are lowering rate, they're bringing down the , they are yuan looking at the property market. , the story today says this is all about what is going on in the banking margaret -- market they saw 2008. you think it is as serious as that? >> potentially, yes. the trouble is the chinese never quite know the full story. it is an opaque financial system. i think the simple worry here is the amount of debt that has been built up in the last five or six years. roughly the equivalent of the u.s. commercial banking balance with and the rapidity which it moved up in a short. of time. country'sry other income that is similar has had a financial crisis. the worry is that investments
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have been poorly made and there was wastage and so one and at some point, that bad debt cycle will kick in and how will they cope? >> that is the main worry. a lot of people are looking for a moment where the cash flow is not able to support the debt and the bad debt cycle kicks in. as a global investment manager who looks around the world and manages portfolios, how large does a specter loomed? do you think this is something that has come onto your radar, i should be looking at protecting portfolios or do you think it is so extreme -- we thought 2008 was extreme, didn't we? >> china is larger than it was five or 10 years ago. if something goes wrong, the impact on global markets will be that much bigger and what we have seen from china before. it is a real concern for my global perspective.
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how that played in global markets, we had a rerun of potential upset just at the end of january were we had these trust products. they thought it would not pay out and default, but they stepped in, they made whole investors, and this is the thing about china. when it is difficult to know how to judge the whole situation, they would try to sweep things under the carpet if they so desire. the real thing we have to look at is what will be the policy reaction to what looks to be an unsustainable debt position at the moment? are they going to sweep it under the carpet, in which case local markets will trundle along, or will they say, no, we have to do something about it? china is about the big picture, the long-term. we had a new place -- we had new politicians put in place last year. it could be a different outcome. we think that china is a very big issue for the markets to have this year. we don't know how plays out
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because that is up to the chinese authorities. however, people should be thinking about how it could impact their portfolios. anything through the australian dollar and emergent marketing -- emerging market growth. it is everywhere. what is interesting is that the chinese have said in the last several months that they do not want to increase their reserves. this is relating to what is happening with the currency and interest and so on. chinese are juggling a lot and they are able to keep everything in the air without falling. time will tell. $3 trillion wiped off global equities. we recoup that through equity markets and got themselves off the grind again. are you confident about equities as the world is in terms of shaking off the em issues? bute have seen a balance generally speaking, the em equities continue to underperform.
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i think what is happening is has been listing fewer accidents in the last 12 or 18 months. the fed is still printing. the chinese are saying they want to print less through reserve accumulation. at some point later this year, both the fed and the few bse could be pretty next to nothing. we think the big equity struggle , --short-term >> we will get into the bigger investment picture when we were back. there is one stock that went to bring to our viewers' attention. the french competition anticipated ave uygues and sfr.bo
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nus cranny. brady dougan will be in the hot seat on how credit suisse help americans dodge taxes. hans nichols has more. the accusation is pretty shocking, isn't it -- $10 billion. how did the committee arrive at this number? i sat down with brady dougan a couple of weeks ago. he is tightlipped on the issue. >> the committee spent six years on this. it is a some hundred 70 page report. talk about numbers alone -- credit suisse has turned over the names of 238 banks accounts. the allegation in the report is that there were 10,000 visits by clients to one branch inside this a wreck airport. when you go to the zürich airport, we buy chocolate. apparently it is where you go to do your banking as well.
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they had 1800 employees that were dedicated to serving u.s. clients. the details are explosive. a fake visa applications, document shredding, you have secret meetings in secret elevators. you have inc. statements being theed to clients inside magazine "sports illustrated." it is remarkable. what brady dougan will have to account for is that if there was a culture at the bank that was trying to flout u.s. law. why did they set up the meetings? why did they have an airport office? interviewers.ough john mccain, carl levin. they owe uncle sam and the people of the united states. the bank is arctic paid 197 million, but the question is, how much more? it is almost as critical on the
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u.s. department of justice for not doing more to prosecute and pro. the figure that the justice department was using -- $4 billion in hidden account. as senate is saying as high $12 billion at a certain point. the discrepancies in these numbers, that is what they are going to get out. the details are too salacious. it will be a tough day for brady dougan. even tougher than when you were growing him. >> i don't think he will be willing -- word too much -- worried too much about my growing. off,umbers you just read 1800 bankers, quiet rooms where they do business, elevators with no monikers on the. secegs the question, the may get involved in a pro. it takes on a whole new meaning at that level, doesn't it? >> the sec is obviously much more aggressive now under mary jo white. senate reports are usually bad for public relations. you get the up and drag in the
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mud. they actually have very little enforcement mechanisms. what is interesting about this report -- sometimes they can refer to justice. what is interesting is that there may have been tanking regularities. -- banking irregularities. they may be able to ring in the sec. >> we leave it there. let's see how this progresses. we are watching another stock this morning -- airbus, after the aircraft maker released his 2013 earnings. them.arrell has solid numbersred if you look a profit, up over 21% on the year. the clue is in the name. no longer eads. it is about the commercial unit. the top line is after delivering a record number of planes,
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they're ramping up the unit and that is where the demand is. they're going to go from 42 to 46 hour planes a month a month. these are the workhorses of the sky. they may take you to paris or domestically in the united states and that is where the money is. is.t sure talk to me about the one-off charges because we are expecting substantial numbers. it breaks down over cost and ramping up reduction and integration. >> it does. this was one of the big aspects this morning. two numbers, 434 billion euros for the a350, charges relating to the development of the wide party -- wide-body double play. this is set to go head to head with the dreamliner when it goes into service. the costs have been mounting on restructuring. after putting forward the commercial plane business and making it the focus, elsewhere they are cutting about 6000 jobs in defense and space units.
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putting the companies together was a 292 million euros charge for that. -- it was a wide range of forecasted numbers. >> we will catch you again at the end of the show. don't miss our interview with the airbus group and cfo harald wilhelm. still with us is stuart richardson. he is the cio -- thanks for staying with us. talk to me about 2014. you cautioned that china could be the great unknown for us. quantitative eating -- easing is changing. where do i want to be an ambassador? equities, credit, government bonds, trade foreign exchange, how do i look at 2014? be you have told
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look at this year as very different from last year. the u.s. has been another upside surprise. in terms of equities, let's go where the money is printing. we know japan will carry on printing, they may up the scale of printing later this year, maybe not in the short-term performance but japan for the rest of the year we think is good. we are looking for u.s. and europe to fall into a trade arrangement at the moment. in see pullbacks like january. if the trade develops, that is the way to way. we think that credit is expensive. government bonds trading from rates for, no rise in a long. of time. it is a really choppy market at the moment and i think a lot of investors are uncertain as to
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what the driving force is. --qe ends, a lot of people they will not be tomorrow or the day after. it will be to store -- two steps forward, one step back. >> you mentioned japan. follow the easy money lies. into yen carry through orkness or euro strength dollar-yen? >> i think we should look at yen weakness and decay strength -- nikkei strength. we wonder what the japanese investors will be doing. dollar-yen, long and domestic investors have not followed suit yet. it seems to be that they're waiting for some sort of clarification and neighbor -- and maybe later, they will start to increase the risk in their purple wheels. at the moment, the domestic
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investor, it is a slightly stale story from last year. we need more action. , we don't about gold gold when things are looking better. $1341 is where we trade on the cash market. you think that we will sell at a base level of $1200-1200 $50. why do you like gold? we are not looking at qe4 a support for gold. >> we are looking for a correction down from $1900 to 1200 because holders have been dumping gold. asian investors have been buying a lot of fiscal gold. china in particular has continued to buy from india despite import control. we think that agent was general emerging-market demand continues. that equates to very large parts of global supply.
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any signs that western investors have ended their dumping of gold should help save the price. to formooking for gold the bottom it will hundred dollars. if we see the demand in the west come back in, we think that it in gold a lot of upside over the next 12-24 months. if someone makes an error of printing too much, maybe japan, then there is a potential real list here and if it isn't in play -- inflation problem down the road, gold gives that potential. >> there can never be enough cheap and easy money. >> i would not say cheap and easy. it has been a horrible right. laster was a pain for gold. we think this year is building a base and looking for topside. if you don't hold it, it does not matter. if you do all that, it forms some diversity in your per folio. >> great to have you with us
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>> welcome back to "on the move. i am manus cranny. deal's been a $5 million with argentina over his white -- ypf deal. customers and europe are starting to expect improvement in the economy. the company's european chief made those comments at the mobile world congress. he said that germany is leading the way while france's outlook is the most negative of the region. ab inbev released their earnings today. the world's biggest brewer sees growth in the u.s. and in brazil. that is think to the -- thanks to the world cup. caroline hyde has more on the story. a good set of numbers and a
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couple of key areas. becks,s stella artois, budweiser. it is the biggest brewers and a fourth quarter looked pretty stellar. strip out your currency effect, up 4.6%. that beat. earnings up 13%. we're seeing volumes dip a bit as they start to charge more particularly in the united states and mexico. >> the volume has dipped slightly, but they charge a little more. >> even though we had a cold winter in the united states -- goodness, they have freezing temperatures. a stronger economy is boding well. they're reading optimistic. ex ago, brazil, are returning to growth. the u.s. is improving. these three companies make up 80% of the revenue. also emerging markets they are focused on -- china will be solid. they're looking for acquisitions in china.
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south korea, the pot back breweries after five years. --they bought act breweries they bought back breweries after five years. --how are they changing they're getting more niche in the products. >> we want more craft beers. as a female, i want more cider. but peopleis cider, don't always want beer, so they are going to the cider drinker. they have the bud lite lime, and strawberry. they like their peers but they're craftier beers. the belgian style -- they have shocked out. they also have goose island ales. they also have a stout. withes particularly well flourless chocolate cake. work.re making it
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welcome back to "on the move. i am manus cranny. these are the bloomberg top headlines. the u.s. senate reports that credit suisse help american clients hide as much as $10 billion in assets from the internal revenue service. that is more than doubled the amount previously known. the report also criticizes the justice department for failing to use all of its tools in criminal probes.
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the executive officer brady dougan will testify before the senate waiter today. the italian prime minister breezed through a final vote of confidence last night. it clears the way for his new government to begin economic reforms. he won the vote in the lower 378-220.a vote of he cleared the senate by a slimmer margin. chinese stocks fell for a third day. that was amid concerns that it property market. the currency has increased amid speculation that policy makers are trying to discourage one-way bets on appreciating currency there. joining me now for the latest on the transpacific partnership talks in australia -- if the australian minister for trade and investment andrew robb.
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minister, great to have you with us. four days of intense discussion and negotiation. give me your sense on what progress you have made with prospective partners. round,ense of the last this recent round of negotiations has put us around 80% of the way there. on a lotade progress of the more technical issues and for the first time, we got into discussing market exits which of course is always the hard part and always at the end. we did start to have discussions with one another and also a general discussion amongst the 12 of us on several occasions. i really felt that we have laid the foundations for the final lap, really. final lap,the
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minister, but obviously there are some key sticking points for you, the australians. where do you see though sticking points? is it all down to japan, america, in terms of dispute, or what are the issues? there are still a number of more technical issues to do with intellectual property and organizations and many other most of those will be satisfactorily resolved. what we are now struggling with is the extent to which each country will liberalize their markets with goods and services in a way that will make the package attractive. now, i have seen and discussed 12h nearly every one of the
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how far they think they can go. a lot of it is contingents and a reasonable amount on what happens between the japan and united states. that is understandable because you put the 12 economies together, it is about 40% of world gdp. 70% of it is represented by japan and the united states. >> on that point with japan, do you think that they will move on the agricultural issues? that seems to be the most difficult one for them to move upon. >> i think every country has sensitivities. time, beenfor a long reluctant in other forums to move on agriculture. but, they signed up to being engaged in this process in the full knowledge that it was fullded to seek liberalization, illumination, in time, overtime, and removal of
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other barriers. that reminds our objective and the japanese understand that. i think there is no doubt that there will be movement on a lot of fronts. it is a question of how much and what happens between the u.s. and japan is very important because they will provide the degrees of freedom in the extent of opportunity that will make market access movement very attractive or not for all the other countries that are obviously a lot smaller. got to get, we have the 12 you to agree. it is a colossal amount of gdp we are dealing with. can you envision that once the 12 nations put their huts in order that china would be interested in getting involved? outset,ve, from the been very determined to design
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open architecture on this arrangement so that other they have once settled amongst themselves, can join. already you have korea expressing enormous interest in coming in. there are several other countries that have privately raised with me. china, certainly, i would hope in due course, would also find it appropriate to come into the , orbecause we would think like to think, that this architecture, this agreement is designed in a way that makes it attractive for all of the countries in our region to ultimately be involved so that it becomes a basis, if you like, for a regional free-trade zone. >> talk to me about the politics of trade at the moment. you have china, you have had disputes there. japan and korea. how big an issue are these political disputes?
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are they holding the entire region back? concernedned you -- are you about an escalation of events? >> i don't feel that there is a temperature that is at any critical level. there are annoyances going on. ae thing is that there is fear of transition happening in the region. many countries are growing at a pace that was unexpected in a way 10 years ago. certainly unprecedented. we have gone from 600 million middle-class now to an expected 3 billion in our region in the middle-class, not within a hundred years but within 30 years. that implies an enormous amount of change and you can expect some friction associated with all of that change that is going on. i think it is manageable.
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there are pockets of internal problems such as in thailand, you always get someone or another around the world these places happening. i don't think it is unmanageable in any sense of the world. >> andrew robb, it australia's minister fort trade. thank you for taking the time after the end of the fourth day of intense negotiation. for you now in terms of the ukrainian the last two minutes. says that president he has assumed the role of supreme commander of the armed forces. that after reports that the police unit accused of such has been disbanded. let's go straight to john fryer. kiev.ns us from
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john, we have had these breaking headlines. it's is a very fluid situation. what is your sense on the ground there in terms of the whole dynamic and the financial aspect, as well? >> on the ground, when the kiev feels calm. it is essentially being run by volunteer militia. most of the police have fled or been disbanded. i think what is going on here is peoplemove to reassure that the armed forces won't get out of control, that there is someone in charge of them. speaking to people in the square as well, there is a sense in the militia that things are under control for now but they are also concerned that things could slip out of control. there are some rumors sweeping, especially in the southern ukraine, that attempts will be made to take retribution on some
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of the police involved in last week's killings. perhaps of their families, as well. at thes a lot of -- moment, it is, on the ground but there is a sense of tension that may not remain the case forever. aspart of what we look at far as financial issues, we know the eu has been financial -- vocally supportive, but getting a bailout on the table will be a tough one. it is not a slamdunk that the ee you will come in along with the imf. >> as you say, there is a lot of positive noise and rhetoric coming from the european commission and from capitals, but you have to remember, it was pretty hard to persuade german lawmakers and the german population to back a bailout for greece, which was a member of the european union, closely bound with germany to the euro. ukraine could well end up getting an eu bailout but there
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are a lot of politics to go. they're in mind we also don't have a government in tf. -- kiev. he is waiting for someone to talk to him on the other end of the phone. there is a long way to go before ukraine can bank on this money. >> give me a sense to the size of the country. it is primarily russian in the crime area -- in the crimea. if i should have a vacuum of power, the tension in the region rises. >> that is right. there've been demonstrations in southern ukraine in the crimea from pro-russian factions. some people going as far to call for a referendum in terms of reuniting or annexing themselves with russia. that is the more extreme element of what is going on in the crimea. there are concerns for the russian speaking parts of the
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country about what is happening in tf -- kiev. russians have gone so far to say it is almost a terrorist coup that is taking place. at the moment, things are relatively stable but we know there are very interesting examples of crowds gathering around patches of land and protecting them in the days after the uprising last week. topple thet of those parts of the country. in the south, you're seeing some tension. things are under control right now but the situation is volatile. >> thank you for that report. fourth quarter -- u.k. fourth-quarter gdp was released this morning. i will be discussing the state of the british economy. through the eyes of one company involved in housing and construction. the front end of the u.k. economy. ♪
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later today, we will be getting a reading on the u.k. gdp. joining me for a conversation on the state of the british economy , is the ceo of travis perkins. you are doing nicely. your earnings per share is up. at.r sales are bes your stock prices up 50% from this day last year. that is a heck of a run. >> we have a great set of businesses and the market outlook now is encouraging us to say that we are in a. or we can see a sustainable growth in volumes in the construction sector. quitet must be heartening. it is a tough run last year. there were moments of growth. talk to me about the business -- 20% of it is the taylor wimpey
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, and then there's the other side of the business which is repair and maintenance. is it a tough market at the moment or is it beginning to gather momentum? >> i think it remains tough but there is momentum. there's no question about that. new builds and the government stimulation to help to buy as helped kickstart the housing market. more driven by housing transactions and that second-degree market is important to us. people tend to spend a little bit of money doing the house up before they sell it and as they move into the new house, they spent a little bit or to get it to how they wanted. >> a double bubble for you? transactions are up, mortgage lending is up. how to buy is the question of the last 24 hours. do you think it should be sustained? un you think it should r
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longer than 2016? >> help to buy has clearly helped the u.k. housing market but we don't rely on it being there forever. i think he was about kickstarting it and getting some volume moving through. liquidity in the mortgage martin -- market was important for people to be able to buy the house and that seems to be coming to better. >> that is the business side. in your numbers, use a capital expenditures are going right. as a ceo, you get the people from the bank of england telling us that there will be a gradual increase in rates. you listen to the bank of england -- does that convince you yes, i am ready to take the next jump. are they doing a good job of communicating you as a ceo? >> i think they are, generally. for us, we are at a terrible downturn in the construction market after 2007 through 2008.
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volume came up about 25%. we have been in a holding pattern for four or five years. seere now starting to things starting to open up. we think the time is right to expand our network so we don't operate to grow the business. >> constantly at bloomberg and media, there is a property bubble, things are running away. your presence is throughout the united kingdom. you're not test -- not just based here. is there a bubble? how do you look at the landscape of the u.k.? >> a bubble would not be good for anyone in the u.k.. we are looking for long and low price movement. one of the interesting sort of features about travis perkins brand, which is a mixed merchant operation across the u.k., is we
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are seeing similar growth in our northern, southwestern, and midlands patched as the same as london and the southeast. we are seeing movement upwards on a similar basis across all the patches we operate. >> you wouldn't say that it is running away? >> not at the moment. clearly momentum is gathering. i think the bank of england will take a watchful eye on house prices getting too far ahead. >> do you think we could take a rate hike if we came? would it be prudent? >> i think so because it needs -- if housing runs away on a -- it in evident inevitably will be a bubble. we're looking for steady growth rather than a shoot up. >> you have been with this company since 1978. if i had that kind of continuity, i would be lucky. the world is changing and what i want to know is how technology
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not on theinto -- ground business with hundreds of products, how does technology play into it? >> if you take are at standard really isn't pc-based but it is mobile base. mobile,shift in a builders tend to index into mobile by two at 80%. as where we are focusing. moving fast and customers are adopting it but mainly in mobile. >> great to have you with us. the ceo from travis perkins. thank you so much. 50 minutes ago until the pulse is taken off. 39 years old, coming in as the new head as a new italian
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government. he wants to do things. he wants to make the country work harder. he was to deliver on promises he set out. he said himself a task of 100 days. young, dynamic. has a special on italy. it looks at the economy from different angles. funny -- at the end, this man describes italy as being semi-retired. he is got a right hand, sitting on the beach, chilling out. whatould get his take on italy does next. that will be a fascinating conversation. start with credit suisse. fireworks on capitol hill today. that will be a fun story to cover. hans nichols will work through that. plus, craft beers, a subject close to my heart. back to you. >> thank you very much for that.
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these guys have got the product right. >> they are doing well and they're going to wear the product is. 46y're going to produce planes every single month from the second quarter of 2016 they will get there. they are at 42 right now. the market seems to like it. just over 1% right now. the restructuring for the a350 which has not gone into service yet, wide-ranging forecast for those two numbers, so hard to save the market is disappointing. right now, stock is up. >> we'll keep an eye on that. bit of goodite a numbers. >> it is up i 1%. we know the names they make. is the craft brewery they are getting up into. top, goose island, bourbon county stout.
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hill,the hammer on the the credit suisse ceo heads to washington to face questions about hogans of dollars in offshore tax evasion. your goggles, upbeat about business in the u.s. even as americans get more of a taste for craft through -- craft brews. airbus stock climbs higher as the company works to boost production on its best-selling a320. good morning. welcome. you are watching "the pulse."
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