bank of england and i think that at the ecb, that is where it will get interesting. inflation beat expectations and what we get today are forecast. 2016.st like go out for is, what are they going to do on the back of that? oute have numbers coming from deutsche telekom. let's stick with the scene and we could see vivendi this morning. there is a battle brewing. operatora telecom euros. 14.5 billion is worth 19e offer billion and on the other side

you have a cable operator. offering 14.5 billion. it will be up to the competition. regulators and competition are the bane of every business. ryan chilcote is standing by. what was the latest on the ground? >> things are heating up in crimea and the u.n. envoy to the crisis led the peninsula and he was chased out of town. there are clashes in the city and the ukraine is still very much in crisis. go back to the ukraine. let's go today between on the ground and leaders are gathering for the emergency meeting. as the pressure mounting? >> the meeting gets underway in about two hours and 28 different

members of the european union leaders will be here. interests onerent top of that and you have the united states involved and they have different interests. i will be back to talk about the expert in the relationship between the united states and the european union. >> we look for to that interview later on and we are seeing the yen declining. >> if in doubt, blame the weather. that is what they did last night. andfederal reserve debate the data with two central banks and how that plays out will be interesting. i want to get a look at the markets and we will get to the banks. the futures are higher and we have .5% on the cac 40.

lows for aecord fifth year and it is incredible how time flies. things are getting more interesting and the euro dollar is pushing higher. i said that a lot of these meetings have been long on expectations on short -- and short on the dollar. is the ecb going to do? the inflation rate has come in better than expected and well below targets. a lot of people do not think they will move on rates today. there will be a rate cut and that is the minority view. you could get movement on the liquidity side of things. we will have a conversation about that later on. >> joining me now with the view on the markets is julian. he is the chief investment .fficer with asset management

let's talk about the ukraine and we are seeing nato making moves, and terms of pushing back with the russians and the european leaders meet today. what do you expect and what is the conversation with your community? >> i think that the overall shock that we have in seeing the russians moving in is now calling and i expect that financial markets are expecting the crisis to run on and the volatility around the russian stock market. i think that what i really believe is that the geopolitical risk is back on the agenda and i think that this year will be about people worrying about geopolitical risk in developing markets. >> that immediately brings to mind protecting yourself in europe. -- do you think

that 2014 is a year where we should spend money to protect assets? i don't know where the bullets are going to come from. >> nobody will be firing bullets at you. i think it is safe to say that we thought that we would see a few holes in the road as we went through the year and the ukraine is a large hole. i would say that you want protection and you need to pay the right price. as you said, we have seen protection and you want -- you want matters to calm down a little before protection. i think it will be worth it over the course of 2014. with brands, we saw a movement on the commodity side and it looks like things are coming down a little bit.

i think there is still risk in the commodity markets, isn't there? >> very much so. the volatility around the commodity markets is the worst. in the oil markets, we are in a better place that we have been with united states in a stronger position. but, i think that opec may take a slightly higher price to produce more oil. >> they are willingly producing more oil to get through this. let's talk about china and obviously, we have the tie into oil energy and commodities. we have a big risk at play here. of airst onshore defaults solar company. i see a bear stearns moment for china. when i see that written down, i

quake. i saw a loss of margin calls in 2008. >> i do not think it is that dramatic. what i think is that if they do let the sale of the company go, it will send a message to the markets that they are serious about reforming the financial system and the banking system. it would be viewed as a good thing to do and we should have analysts sayinese that that is the case. whether that this company go under, if they do, i think markets will take it well. >> they are pushing the currency lower. >> i think they will continue and they are upset with the way that the yen has come up and i think they want to make sure they are in a stronger position.

>> you are going to stay with me and we are going to get into some of the bigger calls after the break. the chief investment officer. stay with me and we will talk about the ecb and what we can expect after the break.

>> in london, this is "on the move."

let's give you a snapshot of some companies on the move this morning. telekom running a story this morning. they have received an offer for their business and vivendi is r.tting involved with the ff there is cash and stock. theinteresting one is fourth quarter sales missing the cut in dividend by 25%. the telecom side and france and orange is one of the best today. analysts seemed to like what re.y are hearing the oranges on the move and deutsche telekom is dropping. these guys are saying that they are lowering their free cash

flow. those stories are a little bit later in the show. thatre moving and let's talk about the ecb rate decision today. they said that they need more data before deciding on further stimulus. is he at risk of missing deflation? we are joined now. this is a fascinating article. month saidaghi last that the eurozone is not japan. there is no reason to expect that overall prices will drop sharply. that islem here is that from the bank of japan monthly report in 1998 and what followed was a decade of deflation. thatroblem right now is

deflation is a self-fulfilling prophecy. even if you see it, sounding the alarm could accelerate the process. you are not going to go out to buy tomorrow and the comparisons between japan and europe are getting clear. you have a reluctance of tanks to lend. , there is a lot of debate about monetary policy right now and a lot of people is that what they are facing fication of the euro area. >> it is about liquidity. rummage through the options. >> the data of the last month has not been terrific. on the inflation side of things, we have had it come in higher than expected and a lot of people think they will not move on rates and only 14 out of 54 see a rate cut.

mario draghi is aware that this is a big problem that has to be addressed and you mentioned liquidity, where i think we could see some interesting moves. in the crisis days, under a problem called the securities -- program called the securities market program, it was for spain. the bank was not happy about it and what they did was sterilize the bond purchases. new moneyoney -- the that was created was not sloshing around. we have one-week deposits, the" when of the deposits we bought. every week, you have to keep doing it to maintain a deposit rate at 175 billion euros. theyssue is now whether suspend the process and if they do, they could be adding more liquidity. that could be much needed.

>> even the germans are -- >> they are on board. >> we will bring you the ecb decision and the press conference live. 12:45. a join me for the special programming this afternoon. still with us is julian west. thank you. it is an important day and an important phase. what would you like to see coming from the ecb? >> i think that what we would like to see is a clear determination by mario draghi to make sure that disinflation is not something that is going to be hampering the recovery. that the one thing that the elementieved is of surprise and with that comes the amplitude of the effect.

if he surprises the markets, he can get greater bang for his. you bought bonds a number of years ago. what would be a surprise? >> something along a lending , which a lot of commentators say would be a good thing for the periphery and you also need to have a reasonably strong banking system around to achieve it. >> we have a stress test coming up in europe. >> would be too big of a gamble? i think it would. it would be a surprise for markets. >> is the euro too high? >> it is too high. >> where should be? >> it should be weaker than it is and i think that it should be like the sterling.

>> with that in mind, we talk about the european place and the european equity place and the banks with the stress tests. the telecoms look like they are consolidating. what stands as a key play in europe? scenariok the overall is no huge surprise. that they wered sellers and is a matter of how it would roll out and consolidation would work. we will see more consolidation of thes the whole telecom space and you may see other players step in. obviously, there has been much discussion about at&t possibly coming into europe to become a major player across the european landscape and there are a lot of people looking to do things. as your commentators said, i think that 2014 is a year consolidation.

there will not be too many winners in the zone. will they end up paying too much? you will see a lot of pricing and a lot of public spending to in. in to get >> are you carrying telecoms at the moment? but we do some telecom stocks, mainly in vodafone and it is more of the yield to lay than anything else. that thehas mentions biggest pension fund is going to look beyond their shores with government bonds. do you still believe in abenomics? how will that work? >> we like japan and we think that he has given it his best effort so far. we believe that there is a greater percentage chance of it working and turning the economy

around them we have seen in the last 25 years. fors pulling another lever him to pull and he is trying everything to try to get the economy going. there is inflation coming into the basket and i think that a little inflation and a weaker yen is all helpful. market --hen to be a is going to be a market you want to participate in. >> we will leave it there. we will see what he brings us. julian is a chief investment officer. thank you very much. will vivendi scrap the spinoff? they have a bid on the table. we will discuss the issue with caroline hyde next.

>> welcome back. i am manus cranny. here are some companies on the move this morning. deutsche telekom says that the view of t-mobile is less likely because of regulations. the carrier is open to alternatives. a sale to softbank remains the preferred option.

deal toca is close to a buy a controlling stake in a business or 800 million euros. bidderse competing with . they owe 22% -- 01 122%. n 22%. of 14.5er a value billion euros out of the parent company of the cable provider. for more on those and all things our european--, business correspondent joins us now. i just had a chat with julian and he said the danger is that everybody is in a frenzy and

nobody is going to win. >> it is putting billionaire against the in error. there are cost savings versus competition. this is where the regulators get interested. >> we know they are trying to get out of telecoms in france and they want to get out. suddenly, there is a lot of attraction and they are saying that we could bring cost savings for 14.5 billion euros and when you factor in cost savings and synergy, it is worth 19 billion euros and we will give you 10 billion euros in cash. we will let you keep skin in the game and let you keep 46% of the overall. they would get the telecoms unit and molded to sfr. boost the value by

15 billion euros and that is the telecoms offer. a lot of regulatory concerns because telecoms and france have become three. the competitive issues are going to be there. on the flip side of that, the andetition is confirmed they are owned by another billionaire. the overall holding company says they will offer 14.5 billion euros. the offers are the same amount. this is a cable operator and they want as many cable companies with their mobile, tv, cable. competitionss concerns and they are keeping the players in france. this is where they have to speed things up. do they work security and less regulatory scrutiny? do they do more money eventually and more skin in the game?

>> that is a risk and they have to work it out if they can lobby hard. it is not much at a european level. >> remember, the european commission, she is a digital woman and she says she wants more consolidation and more of a runoff market in europe. look at it as europe as a whole and that is why they are trying to reduce the overall roaming charges in trying to get it to one market. >> let's go on and talk about orange. i talked about that and you chastise me. >> that is because they are looking a little more optimistic about next year. competition is hitting orange heart and we had reductions in prices that they can charge. the sales are down six percent. dividends.cutting >> they're cutting dividends to conserve cash and they are looking more optimistic. they are getting more customers.

the costs are going up and that is offsetting sales. >> you cut through my misery and we will leave it there. after the break, we go out to brussels and the eu leaders are talking ukraine.

flex welcome back. we are in bloomberg's european headquarters in london and we are into the trading day. loves us show you how things are shaping up. financial services are on the move. thats are heading levels we last saw in 2000 day. here are the general markets and you can see them leading the pace.

up and equities are doing better. the ecb rate decision with the bank of england is ahead of the private payrolls. 137. the dollar yen is where you see a little bit more. that is the yen dropping and the dollar rising by .4%. japanese government allowed the biggest pension fund in the world to no longer focus on japanese government bonds. let's go to the top headlines. mario draghi may have all the information he needs to do nothing on interest rates and stronger than expected efforts

may spare him from radical steps like negative rates. economists expect no change at 12:45. default has become china's -- they could prompt investors to reassess risks. sellaker of a solar panel said that they may not make interest payments that are due tomorrow. the european union leaders gathered for an emergency meeting today and they discussed repercussions for russia. 1.6 billion euros in emergency aid was offered to the new government. -- ousted residents

of 18ent is among a list individuals whose assets have been frozen. let's go to the ukraine and ryan chilcote is standing by. a political move in brussels this morning. talk to me about your sense on what is happening on the ground. >> after a 24-hour well in advance, things seem to be picking up in crimea and it is ground zero in the crisis in the ukraine. flednited nations envoy the peninsula and was chased out of town. he arrived on a fact-finding leaving,nd as he was he was approached by a group of armed men and he was told that he would leave.

he felt that he had been threatened. a tough situation and you have arms forces surrounding the military installations. it gives you a sense of how much this is still a tense standoff. >> we are getting live pictures from the prime minister and this , in termsor break day of will europe step up to the plate. talk to me about the rest of the ukraine. we know the issues with crimea and it is not just crimea that we are focusing on. >> that is right. there is worry about the east of the ukraine and the industrial city of one million people where we saw flashes for a couple of

ands and groups of russian ukrainian demonstrators that hustled until the police came in and hauled some of them away. we have a group of pro-russian demonstrators and i use the term reportedly -- regrettably. it is not clear what they mean. .hey raised the russian flight the ukraine flight is flying above that building again. it is interesting because that is where viktor yanukovych came ofm and it is the stronghold the ukraine's richest man, who had pledged allegiance. some believe that because we are seeing this that they are perhaps ready to renegotiate on that. vladimir putin will be looking

at the pretext of going into russiano protect the population and if you have unrest in the east, he could use that. >> we will speak with you throughout the morning from the ground in the ukraine. the issue, let's go to brussels and the eu leaders entering for an emergency meeting. the prime minister of the ukraine is giving a brief comment ahead of the meeting. we're reporting from brussels. >> there are some the vested interests in these talks that are taking place that get underway and 1.5 hours. there are different views from europe and western europe. you have used coming from the united states, which is why i'm

the analystk to from the german marshall fund. you have looked at the relationship and there is a perception among many in europe that there is a lot of space between the views and the way of approaching this whole crisis. is that the case? >> i would not agree with that. i think we're more or less on the same page about the crisis. there is a debate about what to do now. i think the parameters are the same on both sides of the atlantic and they're looking for a way to diffuse and re-stabilize. but what should be happening? >> it is a good question. i think of the united states and others will be looking for a sign that europe is on the same page with the situation.

>> on the table, there is a talk of sanctions. we have united states saying that there is a possibility of andtions on russian banks banks doing business with russia. differencelike a big . >> this is inevitable and the basic parameters, there are no doubt about. will they be reluctant to deploy them because europe would feel that directly? absolutely. it is not a civil debate on either side of the atlantic. >> we have a threat of sanctions that might be automatic if there is further escalation. you think there will be a de-escalation? >> that is right. i think sanctions have to remain

on the table and i doubt that the discussion here today will take us there. >> how do you think the interests will look? >> whether you look at it from a russian perspective, you have a short-term problem of disengaging and they have their objectives and we have ours. in a longer term, there's a question about the political integrity and how we keep ourselves for getting back into a cold war situation with russia. sides -- e three >> has russia painted themselves into a corner? >> they feel that and that may be the case. i think they have political objectives that they want to see satisfied and maybe they are not optimal from that point of view.

they are trying to balance those things. >> how do we allow them to save face? russianhave to do with or gestation or observation of the upcoming elections question mark >> part of it has to do with the monitors on the ground and there are a lot of different formulas being discussed. there is anger-term, strategic discussion between the partners about this and there are a whole range of other things where we need to work together. >> natural gas is a key leverage points at the moment and the u.s. is producing loads of natural shale gas. is there a new market for the united states and could that have political consequence? >> this is a thing to think

about and you cannot do anything quickly. the russian assets to europe are what they are. there'll beger term production that will have reductions in energy exposure. >> thank you very much. fund of thearshall united states. it is clear that it is difficult and whatever the european union needs to do today, the u.s. will look at it closely and the president will look at it closely. with that, i will send it back to you in the studio. tweed, live for us in brussels. at the break, we will speak to the chief executive about the challenges. that is after the break.

i am manus cranny and this is on the move on bloomberg television and streaming live on bloomberg.com joining me now from paris to discuss the latest ceo and it is

great to have you with us morning. you have promised the market that you will deliver a double-digit growth trajectory for this year. where we will see that comp. is it on the transition side or the mobile side? where will you get the equity from? posted 11%already our movement is along two lines. one is the product business and the other is the platform and services and all the backup systems that are necessary to maximize our technology. we expect the growth to be in the low 20's and we have posted 21% and it should be this type of range.

fox, -- in terms of products, we continue to grow. is the adoption by the chinese and the americans. the other part is the top grade of the same cards in the other products that we do and other features of mobile banking. >> you talk about it being adopted by the chinese in the united states and that is a traditional area that you have been successful in so far. how much more to not contribute to you in revenue because there is a challenge from more developed markets and we will get that in a moment. it is a relatively recent move and a place where we dominate the market.

our transaction business has grown 20% last year due to the expansion of the stock in china. we should expect expansion in activity which is well known to continue in europe and is still in its infancy in the china and the u.s.. --a lot has been risen written. how substantial of a threat is the payment mechanism? it?big of an issue is people are taking a bet against the stock in the market and you are one of the most shorted stocks in europe. it was not well interpreted. are and mastercard

committed to technology and that is good news here. is trying mobile services and if you look at the announcement, they're trying to simplify the technology and thee is no knowing what winning technology will be. six months ago, people thought about begins. this is a misunderstanding of the communications and you are correct that we have an shorted and this is not new. you know, we have done over and over and we do not feel it. >> let's talk about the world and technology. in a post-edward snowden disclosure world, what are the

discussions that you have with corporate about the new challenges of personal security and how are the conversations changing, because the world has changed, in terms of security and we are aware that surveillance is pervasive. >> you have to make the anderence between cyber war state-sponsored espionage to attack another state, a different type of technology. and coming of personal data against the crime and this is what happens with target. we saw this and south korea recently. at the end of the day, it is a wake up call that old systems, like magnetic stripes and personal account numbers, they cannot stay as they are. there is a proven technology which is superior when we develop and they are trying to

make noise. if they want to date to protect reputation, the easiest way is to go with a secure element. yes, the wake up call is favorable. protect yourhis to personal data better. >> is there an opportunity with wearable technology? we need to be more protective of directions that a that you would take the company in? opportunity and

we spoke about three or four years ago. and it is now in double-digit profitability for us. is expanding nicely and you need to separate the business activities. automobiles,and container tracking. important and this is where we play. you have your refrigerator talking to your tv and that is more of the domain of samsung or that do not have distribution channels there. the other third is the industry have one.we

have -- >> it is a growth area for you. let's see what you deliver in 2014. thank you so much for taking the time. at the top of the hour, the pulse is coming up. places at be in two once. she tries. would have an exciting show and the ukraine is our top story. we have a guest host. we have a global chief of staff and a global economist. we will ask him about the ukraine and the ecb and the bank of england. he thinks that the ukraine crisis will be underway and he thinks that the ecb is unlikely to cut interest rates and remain on the sidelines. two executives joining

us and we will be talking about africa and emerging markets. theill get his view on political crisis that we are seeing between russia and the ukraine and we will be talking officerhief executive of the tire maker and i want to navigate with them where he sees the best opportunity and we will talk about wine as they launch a new wine sector. these are the sales and you can get them. >> who would've ever thought of bankers giving away free wine. listen, i will see you later on. you --do the makers with markets with you. stay with us and we will wrap up what is going on only come back shortly.

tofor a recap, let's talk jonathan ferro. talk to me about the nuclear option. >> i have not got the note in front of me. it involves a big cut in the finance rate and quantity easing ending. >> that would be using a lot of the expectations

are what some say they are good at. >> we will leave it there. is by herself. stay with bloomberg forever thing on the train crisis.

>> talks on russia and the eu leader tells him to pull back. mario draghi has his latest data. a bidding war for 10 billion euros with vivendi. a rival proposal. welcome to the polls from oo