tv Bloomberg Surveillance Bloomberg March 17, 2014 6:00am-8:01am EDT
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assets. malaysia seeks radar data from 25 nations. where do they look? striking a balance between your facebook page and national security. we will look into that this hour with david kirkpatrick. good morning, everyone this is "bloomberg surveillance." i am tom keene, wearing a green bowtie. joining me adam johnson. scarlet fu is off today. here that an johnson. -- here is adam johnson. >> overnight, asking prices for homes searched -- surged to a new price. the south korean prime minister said that people need to be aware about increased prices.
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earnings before the bell. happy st. patrick's day. >> some welsh. >> green beer later on this hour. i am a quarter irish. >> here is a headline. inflation and little but lower than expected. sir .7% -- 0.7%. let's do a did a check. and optimistic bounce off a tough week. 10 year yield goes nowhere. euro essentially goes nowhere. nymex crude is still under. vix, 14 to 18. yan is a little bit lower. the rubel goes nowhere. that is a headline.
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part of it back stories on commodities. here is copper, the ascension of china. there is the financial crisis. we have rolled over again in copper. why have we rolled over again? >> all of the volatility in china. financial trades really have nothing to do with actual supply and demand. copper, you secure it, are you unwinding that and have to sell it? some things are going down copper, but other things are going up. >> right. you have oil that has been moving with ukraine and russian issues. they are moving on the totally on fundamental. >> lumping all commodities together is really narrow. you have weather in south america that affects coffee. to move that with copper -- papers and the
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weekend webpages to give you the front page this morning. here is alix steel. >> our first front page is of course ukraine. the u.s. and european union warning russia not to annexed crimea after the referendum we saw yesterday. most 97% of voters backed crimea leaving russia -- ukraine. that is fascinating. election, the russian nationalist party only controlled 4%. overwhelmingly now, crimea footing to split off. crimean foreign ministers are meeting with -- in moscow. parliament names the ruble the official currency. >> the time zone is changing at the end of march. >> is mr. putin going to speak
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tomorrow? >> he will make an address to russian parliament tomorrow. they have to change their laws to annex crimea. >> the court of public opinion is moving fast. >> let's get onto malaysia. >> malaysia has asked roughly 26 countries to help with the search. you can see the malaysian authorities have been discussing the investigation. australia is sending more aircraft into search. they have cooperated with the fbi and interpol. theysia air saying that pilot did not request to be on the beijing flight. the news was about the two pilots over the weekend. we heard that one communication system was disabled before the plane's last transmission.
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theakes people wonder about pilot. supposedly he did not ask to be on that flight. headlines can very quickly. >> where do you go now? and 25 countries are trying to figure out exactly that question. 634 possible airports where this plane could've gone. locals would have heard it or seen it. >> my theory is that there is a lot of ocean and not much land. >> i want to update you on headlines trickling out from malaysian air. the communication cannot be revealed. we cannot reveal what that is yet. we will keep you updated on the headlines. our third front page this morning comes to us from china. alibaba starting the process of what may be the biggest ipo in two years. choosing the u.s. over hong kong.
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alibaba is china's biggest e-commerce company. billion -- second-biggest internet company behind google, if it did get that valuation. the add-on stories about the banks. withtedly, they're working goldman, jpmorgan, credit suisse, deutsche bank -- we're looking at hundreds of millions of dollars in possible fees. by ais is a stunning move chinese company, the largest tech company saying it does not want to list in china. that is condemnation of the system. >> those are the front-page headlines. >> we will get to the brackets on thursday. we bring you richard falcon falkenwrath.ck an >> confusion and lack of
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corporation by malaysia. >> i want to stay on crimea. >> with crimea it is the size of the vote. the vote being overwhelmingly pro-russian. i thought it would be closer. >> what is the to do for the west? currencyedules they change, a time zone change. >> the u.s. is leading the sanctions. the european union is much more reluctant. asset freezes are against specific individuals associated with the coming annexation of crimea. >> why is it specific and not more general? >> they are not ready to do that. the economies are totally interdependent. europe needs the trade with russia and vice versa. the united states has hardly any trade with russia. >> we will have this through the
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hour. nicholas burns will join us in the next hour. >> continuing the conversation, talking about what the west will be doing, we are in brussels this morning. what do you hear about how quickly some sanctions might be put into place? >> some sanctions will be announced today. we expect the european union foreign ministers to freeze the assets of a number of russian officials and ban them from traveling within the european union. our anydon't expect economic sanctions. or even targeting any russian business leaders. there has been a lot of speculation about that. expect thethey success rate to be? we have seen sanctions work well with iran. that had severe economic sanctions tied to it. think there is a
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feeling that should the european union ministers and leaders want to, they can do real damage to the russian economy. there is no damage -- question about that. there is a question about whether they can influence president putin's initiative or plan in the ukraine. we could end up in some iran style sanctions if the european union were to move forward quickly. maybe that would not accomplish the goal that the european union wants and it would debilitate them as well. >> you spent a good amount of time in kiev recently. were you surprised but the overwhelming majority on the vote? was kiev surprised? >> good question. i was a bit surprised. 97% is a very big version of the voters, particularly when they
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are saying that 80% turned out for the vote. the foreign minister made a valid point. how can we believe the numbers? i think that is a fair observation. there was not a broad international presence of observers. it is a well-known fact that the majority of ukrainians in crimea are ethnic russians. many of those want to join russia. maybe not all. then you have 25% of the people.on muslim ethnic then you have ukrainians themselves. this comes as a bit of a surprise. the foreign minister dispelled this. he said, we never recognized this to begin with, why would we recognize the result? give president putin the result. this is what happened in kosovo. >> thank you so much.
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he will continue to be with us through the morning. let's get to company news. here is alix steel. >> vodafone is buying ono. the british telecom company is paying about $10 billion for ono. fors part of a deal vodafone to boost its tv and broadband operations in order to compete with telefonica in spain. twitter's ceo is visiting china. will be meeting with officials of the shanghai government. twitter is presently banned in china. here you go, ladies. the owner of jimmy to make take -- choo may take the company public. ascould be valued as much $1.7 billion. foripo would be used to pay
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expansion in asia, where sales are rising. boots. jimmy choo's. >> $700? >> i would go north of there/ . >> by a share of stock, it will be cheaper than a pair of shoes. >> what should i do on ohio state-xavier? >> are we talking march madness? i will have to tune out. choos or basketball. >> i am like, color of the uniform. it could be the biggest u.s. ipo in two years. file in the u.s. and not china? in a word, integrity. we will tell you what is
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>> massachusetts, iowa, tennessee, texas, arizona state. texas-arizona state. "market makers." it is a bracket business. have the acc will commissioner. today ont 11 :00 a.m. bloomberg television. good morning, everyone. "bloomberg surveillance." i am tom keene. with me, alix steel and adam johnson. >> here it is.
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a big number for you. $200 billion -- that is what analysts value alibaba at. it is based in china, going public here in the u.s. what is thetrick, significance here about listing in the u.s.? affect? is the alibaba -- effect? >> the internet is where commerce is shifting. this is the leading marshall company on the internet in china. in terms of white is in the united states, a lot of that has to do with governments and whether alibaba will be allowed to have a multitier structure a small numberw
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of people to control the company over time. the new york stock exchange has no trouble with that. hong kong does. partially located in hong kong, so it is all the more humiliating. >> saying, we want a slice of the u.s. market? >> i don't think these chinese companies did to live here in order to say that. bill the global ambitions at the moment. -- they all have global omissions -- ambitions at the moment. whatsapp.ad to buy >> ali baba is a competitor to whom? >> it is not really analogous to any american companies. it is a hybrid of amazon and ebay. intermediary an the twin buyers and sellers.
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up as an agent for foreign companies wanting to source in china and chinese companies wanting to sell outside the u.s. they have extraordinarily sophisticated systems, like any company of their scale, and they can do pleasant globally in ways that others cannot. they are trying to do the same inngs they do in china turkey. >> is jeff bezos quaking in his shoes? >> amazon is really not going to be hurt. ebay could be hurt. i don't think they are quaking either. ebay has a business that is analogous to one that alibaba has in china. ison't think that alibaba
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going to start selling goods in america to americans. i think the ipo is very high. i think most internet valuations right now are superhigh. >> is a justified? >> the revenues do not seem to justify that to me. >> how much of a condemnation is this that alibaba comes to the u.s. and not to china? >> it was really hong kong or new york. they never thought about listening in china. the executives operate primarily in hong kong anyway. hong kong definitely want to them, but they do not allow these dual stock structures. it was a tough sell. there is a report that the hong kong exchange is trying to get the rules changed so that this does not happen to them in the future. >> this portion of "bloomberg surveillance." brought to you by ludens cough
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drop. >> i spent the entire weekend in bed. i have my ludens right here, lest there be any doubt. [laughter] preeminent voice on international relations. we will talk about harvard's nicholas burns. his perspective on crimea. esther putin's next move. this is "bloomberg surveillance ." we are streaming live. ♪
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this is "bloomberg surveillance ." better at the brackets than i am, adam johnson. scarlet fu is off today. doing her brackets. hold for some on of the world's biggest banks. payouts for foreign exchange trading teams have been frozen. of currentnipulation to rates. new york has replaced the london is the world's leading financial center. london's reputation was damaged by the currency trading investigation. hong kong and singapore took third and fourth. at the box office, "mr. peabody to the top spot. $21 million in ticket sales. second place went to "300: rise of an empire."
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warner bros. took in $19 million for that film. >> i kind of want to see it. i'll see it this weekend. currencyer chinese over the weekend and into the monday morning. time for our morning must-read. >> here is what i have. out of "the wall street journal." david kirkpatrick, is there any downside to this? >> yes, there is a downside. it has been exciting from an innovation point of view. is that we are essentially acquiring a set of companies that effectively are
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monopolizing without regulatory mechanism to oversee them. while the effect of these companies economically and socially's for a positive, we have never been in a place like this were companies have had this kind of global scale and the social impact, and no regulatory mechanism. we will fund raise to regulate them whether they like it or not. theoming up, we speak to former ceo of american airlines on the missing malaysian airlines plane. we will be right back. ♪
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across the nation and around much of the world today. march 17, 2014. this is "bloomberg surveillance." scarlet fu is off today, working on her brackets. it is a better tone with the vixx at 17.82. an ugly week last week. euro-dollar getting back to near one point 39. 1.39. that is our data check. >> 29 countries searching for .issing malaysia flight it stopped sending signals. authorities expect deliberate action by the eyelet --pilots. we usually focus on safety of the aircraft, but what is done here in this country to ensure that pilots are both safe and sane? >> well, i'm not sure that we do
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much by way of the sanity checking. the fact of the matter is, everyone who flies commercially in the united states is carefully vetted, but that -- you go simply through persons background. typically, these people that fly for the airlines have gone through, if not from the military academies, at least from the military itself, have a long and well known history. they have been flying commercially, in most cases, for many years. the fact if in turn this turns out to be a consequence of some deliberate act from the cockpit, i think would be very surprising. said you think would be surprising if the pilots
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acted deliberately? think, of course, anything is possible, but based on what you read in the press, they didn't make any particular effort to fly together. the notion there would be collaboration between the two of them to somehow steal the airplane, is what is being suggested -- you know, that is a pretty far reach, in my mind. >> bob crandall, experienced with the neck and airlines. rats workingand with us as well. -- richard falcon rat, with the silence that is out there now, what is our polity of satellite reconnaissance? number of nations will have satellite data, what does that mean? >> for the u.s., it is excellent if you task the satellites to look at a particular area.
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that is key. they need to be re-prioritized. u.s. government does it all the time when it goes to war. my expectation is many of the satellites are normally watching global hotspots are now looking at -- >> what is the distinction of depth of ocean? somethingllite see where it is shallow, but much more problematic in the indian ocean? >> it would have to be shallow. it it is deep, like the indian ocean, no way. >> you seemed to be saying the pilots probably did not have a role in it. when he hear things like the plane would have to 45,000 feet and went down again then up again, what is the only reason why that would happen? agoou know, we spoke a week and i said at the time and i say again now, that one of the things experienced aviation people know is it is a whole lot better not to speculate. when we finally find the answers
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to aviation the limits of this kind among the most always find there are things we had absolutely no anticipation or expectation of. the fact of the matter is, i don't know what has happened here. nobody else knows. we are not going to know and we find the airplane or the remains of the airplane. >> that is a great point, trying to avoid speculation. ulkenrath, speculation aside, what happens now? >> there's a physical search that is expanding. australia is in the lead. the investigation is looking at the human dimension. on that dimension, we want to get to the bottom of this particular investigation, but there's a larger question is, was this a one-off or some part of larger conspiracy? when you're in counterterrorism and the intelligence business, it if it -- if it is part of a larger conspiracy, if they were not acting alone and had a support network, that is what
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you're worried about. >> david kirkpatrick with this as well. >> our modern aircraft don't use technology that is modern enough. there are a lot of systems that could be used routinely in international and mystic aviation that many of us actually use in our smartphones -- >> such as? routine,stems that are are not utilized currently in air traffic control system and airplanes. a lot of pilots who are techies in the last few weeks have been posting and writing blogs, etc., saying they're shocked at how primitive the technology is on modern aircraft will stop >> particularly, will time telemetry up into satellites is not done that could be done. it is expensive. one of the measures we did on 9/11 is low-tech and i think it had unintended consequences. harding of the doors. that in 2003 and it
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has now become a global standard. they may have had an unintended consequence of allowing one pilot to lock them out. >>. crandall remembers when it was a curtain. it was a curtain between the pilots. you any right brothers, they did not even have a curtain. do you like the cockpit doors today? >> do i like the cockpit doors story? the fact is, i think the hardened cockpit doors were a good idea. when they are used as there used routinely, solely by the u.s. carriers, i think they add a real sense of security. the cockpit is very difficult to get into. now, all of the speculation, again, that somehow one pilot locked the other one out of the all of, once again, those were speculating it are doing themselves and the rest of us a disservice.
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let's wait until we find out what happened. >> wrapping it up, richard come in terms of speculation. i'm curious about what we don't know. what are authorities not talking about right now? >> there is a lot. we know very little. i think bob is right. are outer of facts that there is far fewer than the volume of speculation going on. we do don't know the background of these individuals. every single person on that plane will have had all of their electronic you medications analyzed by the u.s. intelligence service. we do not know who they were with yet that hasn't come out. we don't know where their travel to. any links to any criminal or terrorist organizations, none of that is known. >> bob crandall, thank you for joining us. -- ran american for 20 years nearly 20 or. the question richard just raised about various types of telemetry and other uplinks to satellites that aren't being used. is it time for airlines to
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examine that cost issue and be willing to take down margins in order to make sure everything is done to ensure security? >> i think there are two points. airlines are not going to take down margins. airlines are simply going to pass the cost along to customers -- as they should. secondly, it is time for both the airline industry and governments to take a very careful look at why we don't you quit our airplanes properly. i would called everybody's attention, we've still got -- we're using in the u.s., and outmoded air-traffic control system. it should have been replaced 10 years ago, and we're still struggling with how to finance it. >> bob crandall, thank you for joining us, former lead at american airlines. david kirkpatrick as well. thank you for bringing that up. richard falkenrath with us as well. our twitter question of the day --
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>> good morning, rebound monday. "bloomberg surveillance." futures up 11 right now. dow futures, better than good monday off a tough week last week. got that rebound in spite of what happened in crimea. everyone thought it would be some sort of a flash point. moving on. venezuela. thousands of protesters marched -- >> it doesn't go away. >> despite the threat military would be used to crack down on the demonstrations. president maduro warned he would you soldiers to take back emirates at the center of the demonstration.
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28 people have been killed over the last month alone. to expand the size of its cities. the countries leaders want to move almost 100 million people bym rural areas to cities 2020. it would mean 60% of the population would be in urban areas up from the current 54%. it calls for massive and for structure project to support the growing population and boost the economy. i guess that means they will keep building and demanding copper, etc., etc. contracts for the month at a maximum value of $12 billion, down from $23 billion one year ago. a $.4cts in january were billion, the lowest level in 23 -- $8.4 billion, the lowest level in 23 months. >> if you take a look at the power grid spending, that will be up 10% this year. in essence, copper consumption
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will exceed the targets. >> jubilee the weaker iron-or story? iron-oresee the weaker story? >> cities were vacant then. it is designed for 1.4 billion people. >> you bought a condo, didn't you? in china, heuy doesn't come with doorknobs or alice or anything. it is just the walls. that's it. >> we have something more fancier, the single best chart. interesting talking about where companies are finding their growth. we usually attribute it to china in terms of earnings. if you look at s&p in the second quarter of 2012-2013, average 3%. shows those doing better. the one psycho below, the red bars show foreign-born to
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companies. the green bars show the mystically-oriented companies. -- domestically-oriented companies. we could see a shift back in the companies making their money from foreign companies instead. it is interesting when you attribute a lot of growth to emerging markets in china, recently, it is been about the u.s. driving. us onhard falkenrath with security and crimea today, but also on the expansion of the neck and vision abroad. we are still doing a lot abroad. will the national push continues -- multinational push continues. >> the foreign policy basically describes the u.s. is in retreat as being less forceful, at least on the strategic front. is that pace. the obama administration, the tagline is, foreign policy slipping back, pulling away from our engagement and engage in with a light footprint and with
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leading at all, being from behind. >> let's get to photos. do you have my book? >> i do. >> did you plan ahead? >> i did. usually i don't. , areicking with the theme three photos, st. patrick's day. are you ready? starting with number three, in london, a float of saint patrick passing through central london during the parade on sunday. some 400,000 people are expected to line dublin today. we wanted to start with london. >> that is creepy looking. i have to say. >> a little creepy. you could argue that the whole thing is a little creepy here in new york as well, the way thousands of people -- i think the drinking starts in about 90 minutes. >> i think it started on friday. what have you got force for number two?
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>> the leaning tower of pisa. a little irish in everyone. the photo taken yesterday. the holiday is for the initiative global greening, sponsored by tourism. in other words, you're not just irish, you are green. >> i did not expect to see this. our logo is green today. >> of course. we are in these. . tom, as you do every day, the drumroll, please. our number one, the chicago river dyed emerald green on saturday. thousands clustering ensuring honest members of the plumbers union began dumping containers of dye. to 1962.tion goes back we're told it is a vegetable-based so it does not harm the sea life. >> i don't know. it is still pretty gross. i went to school in chicago and
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i avoided that like the plague. >> this is a big deal. "the new york times" over the weekend, saying the irish are not behind us, that this has become an americanized day. david kirkpatrick, help me out. >> i have a little bit of everything in me. i read that column and it was not terribly flattering to the irish personality. >> all yet to do is go to the upper east side -- >> for us in new york, it is a day to dress. >> richard falkenrath, is there a national security risk their? >> none whatsoever. >> richard falkenrath say no national security problem.. this in patrick's day >> coming up, mark zuckerberg is unhappy with nsa snooping into facebook users. use common president obama. -- he is calling president obama. we will talk about it. this is "bloomberg surveillance." ♪
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the wrong kardashian. not the one that broke up with the laker. kim and kourtney kardashian launching a new baby . you don't want to miss that this morning by the 9:00 a.m. with betty liu. look for kim kardashian. help me here, alix. >> me? >> what do you need to know? kim kardashian is in the house. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance." steelom keene with alix and adam johnson. scarlet fu is working on her brackets. oury in the gathering of digital information, where does facebook stop and the nsa began? the lines blur as young works zuckerberg lambastes the president. silent.stands largely we're thrilled to bring you david kirkpatrick and richard falkenrath to discuss and have a
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conversation on this important matter. david, why is he lecturing the president of the united states? >> because facebook is a constantly global company for which trust is absolutely paramount. and since the revelations the nsa has treated all american internet companies as their private playground, all the american internet companies have been terrified the impact it will have on the global business. they feel the u.s. government does not understand the role they play in the economy -- >> but, david, i know -- >> especially outside the u.s. >> this is important for guys in , but how do you respond to facebook and the others facebook will help find the next terrorists? >> if they knew there were doing it, they would probably be happy to help. the respondent to subpoenas.
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they're not refusing to help the government. they don't like to have things taken from them unwittingly. they don't like people tapping into their -- >> but they are willing to sell it, right? >> facebook does not sell it, they sell access to it. there's a big difference. 29-year-old calling president obama and scolding him, what does that mean? my head explode. doing this to the president of the united states for 29-year-old -- >> why? >> the second is the hypocrisy. this is a guy whose billions rests on the ability to data mine data given to his company, pursuant to terms of service agreement. the president does what he does --suant to and it tore all electoral mandate. this is a consecrated issue. >> i think zuckerberg would argue has not been abiding by the constitution. don't see the court rulings, so how do we know? >> you do.
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they are published. the department of justice has released them. >> do you think the ceo has any right to call the president and it would be appropriate? aboutshows why he talked it publicly. it is one thing that are proper conversation with the president -- which is a privilege. the second thing is to tell everyone in the world what you said, which is absurd. >> you don't think any seo should do that ever? >> did the wall street ceos, when they come in to meet with the president or secretary go out and do a blog about it? >> this is the responsibility of the nsa, the pentagon, and others to protect us, yet at the same time we have this enormous business you're part of. >> the most fiber and part of the american economy. >> that's true. >> the fact is, all of these companies are eager and happy to cooperate under legal and no interns with u.s. government. but when they do things as has been revealed like tap into the
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fiber lines of their data centers to greatly just suck out all the data for that is a fundamental violation of trust for their users. >> so what you're getting at -- >> and i don't think it is legal. between is a difference going to business entity and saying, i will pay you and you can use the data, as opposed to the government were you have not made that agreement, right? >> the users of facebook, for better or worse, trader personal data in exchange for a free service. >> richard, where is the middle ground on this debate? >> the rule of law. the case you talked about is not accurate. when the government goes to facebook for data, it does it under the rule of law. it does a pursuant to a court order. facebook's cooperation is not voluntary. >> i want to give both of you back to continue this discussion. david kirkpatrick and richard falkenrath on nsa and the future of our internet business. how about a foreign-exchange
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international norms" as russia grabs crimea. the west will freeze russian athens. malaysia seeks radar data from 25 nations. india suspends its search, waiting for clarification on where to look. wall street prepares for the selling of alibaba. good morning, everyone. this is "bloomberg surveillance ." we are live from world headquarters in new york. monday, march 17. i'm tom keene in a green bow tie. with me is alix steel and adam johnson. scarlet fu is off, refining her brackets. guest host, paul sweeney on media am of the importance and scale and scope of the media. we have a lot to look at this morning. let's get right to the morning brief. >> overnight asking prices in london for homes surged. of korea governor says south korean households need to prepare for higher interest rates.
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the yuan is sliding 4.5%. u.s.mic data here in the -- 8:30 a.m., empire manufacturing, 9:15 a.m. industrial production and at 10:00 :00 the nahb housing market index. earnings before the bell, inovio pharmaceuticals. we should note that saint patty's day. what do you have for company news? >> green beer. alibaba coming to the u.s. for its ipo. it comes after the company failed to win approval from chinese regulators for its proposed governance structure. it is valued as much as $200 billion by some, making it the second-biggest biggest internet company behind google. vodafone is buying spanish cable company ono. paying about $10 billion. the deal is part of an effort by vodafone to boost tv and broadband offerings to compete with telefonica in spain. the owner of jimmy choo may take
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the shoemaker public. talking to bankers about a possible ipo, according to a person familiar with the matter. it could be valued as much as one point $7 billion. the ipo would be used to pay for expansion in asia it -- which is where sales are rising. >> jimmy choo, boots. >> my christmas present? thank you. serious note, in the bloomberg headlines coming through all morning, it is 1953. russia has crimea. khrushchev 1954, after 1989 and after a modern european ukraine, russia, in an ancient tradition -- tradition, grabs crimea. nicholas burns is professor of diplomacy at the kennedy school. house of the west respond? wonderful to have you here this morning. lookwe look at nato and we at the response of brussels, can there be a coordinated response to mr. putin?
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>> if the united states excellent to -- on its own on sanctions and the european union does not reciprocate, the impact will not be nearly as much as the west wants to be. foreign ministers are meeting in brussels to decide what to do. i think you will see a sliding scale of sanctions. right now the regional parliament declared independence. we will see if putin moves to annex crimea. >> do financial sanctions work or is there another quality of sanctions that can be more effect if? >> financial sanctions, we have seen in the iran case, financial sanctions make a difference. because there is an oligarchy aroundputin, it may be ultimately, not today, but ultimately that is where the sanctions go -- because there is an oligarchy around putin. i don't think that is where the eu and the u.s. will start.
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they will have a gradation. >> adam johnson, that seems to be the key distinction, the smallness of the group around the russian leader. how is it weburns, can talk about sanctions when in oft the eu accounts for 75% direct foreign investment into russia and russian accounts for about a third of the energy imports into the eu? >> and inconsistent eu response over the last few weeks. while the united states says there has to be a cost for putin, you see a lot less on the eu side. there are six of those countries that rely on russian national -- natural gas to power their economies. there are limits to what the europeans can do here. i expect a stronger response than the united states. >> let me bring in richard falkenrath. meghan o'sullivan destroys the hydrocarbons card for the united states and the west. if we don't have a hydrocarbons
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card, dr. falkenrath, what do we have? >> very little direct leverage over vladimir putin. one thing i would like to ask nick, he knows diplomacy is a book -- combination of carrots and sticks. we have mostly been talking about sticks and they are very small. are there any carrots, positive inducements we can offer vladimir putin to get him to come down? one thing that has been tossed out is promising the new july's ukraine, never to take it in -- neutralize ukraine, never to take it into nato. ? >> it has been an important principle since all the american presidents since the end of the cold war that any european democracy ought to have at least the right theoretically to join nato nde you -- nato and the eu. talked to they russian foreign minister yesterday and president obama spoke to vladimir putin yesterday and they are floating this idea to the russians of autonomy of crimea inside a russian ukraine.
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we have seen the parliament and crimea declare its independence. >> when you look at the response, i was thunderstruck how ukraine was not on the cover of the papers on friday. yeah, it is there this morning. have you been surprised about the lack of media response to this new affirmation of the cold war? story in europe and the european press. it had been big in our press until the mystery of the malaysian airplane. but i think you will see it come back as a major story this week toause putin is going address the russian parliament. he is going to have to say what will happen to an independent crimea, whether treated as an eternal brother by moscow or whether he will and sit. if he does that and annexes crimea and it becomes part of the russian federation, then i think the and the united states have to consider the more
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and thesanctions --eu u.s. have to consider more series sanctions good >> what does russia have to gain severing ties? >> i don't think they think they will sever the ties with the west. i think they believe they are so mutually advantageous they will not go apart. there may be short-term punishment but if they successfully annex write me a and cement control, eventually the rest of the world will have to -- annex crimea and cement control, eventually the rest of the world will have to -- >> putin does not want to go down as the leader who lost ukraine. >> he didn't. that was mikhail gorbachev. implication toal the crisis. not just the big story in europe, but the big story in asia. last week at an event with the council on foreign relations with a major asian ambassador, saying everyone on china's
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periphery is watching this with great nervousness because of the signal it sets of that territory can be annexed and the united states government will do nothing forceful about that. >> that is a critical point. nick burns, what is an annexation? >> could not hear your question. >> what is an annexation? >> it would be a legal move by the russian federation to declare crimea as part of its territory. it would be a fundamental break with the united nations, with international law. i just want to say, i agree with richard. putin thinks he can get away with this. he thinks he can divide europe and america. he is banking on the fact there will be a weak response. i also agree that at a time china is starting to bully smaller nations in the south china sea over territory emanations like the philippines, they are going to be watching to see the depths of response from the united states, so this is a time president obama really has to lead and come forward with some strong measures both in
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sanctions but also to unite the nato allies in europe and to send signals to our allies in japan and the philippines and asia that we are going to protect them as well. so i think looking for a marek and leadership, stronger american leadership -- american leadership and stronger american leadership is necessary. >> 93% of crimea and in theory voted to effectively become part of russia, according to exit polls. isn't that legitimate enough for about two and the international community -- four vladimir putin? of numbers economists had in the soviet era. he of the military occupation of crimea. you have part of the population declaring a boycott. you had out right intimidation of ukrainians and crimea. because the was 94% russians manufactured the boat. it was not legitimate and certainly not legal. >> nicholas burns, thank you so much.
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school at harvard. and richard falkenrath, thank you so much. this will be in its entirety, bloomberg radio plus on bloomberg tv plus and a little bit. stocks, bonds, currencies, commodities rebound monday. gets mylar, 1.3898, attention. toward the euro strength. >> coming up, u.s. companies post strong fourth-quarter earnings overall but my next guest says those numbers don't necessarily tell the full story. why? you have something to do with buybacks. >> a big heal. >> big, big heal. buying back stock to inflate earnings per share. we will talk about that on "bloomberg surveillance" on bloomberg television, bloomberg radio, and your tablet and phone. ♪
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>> good morning, everyone. this is "bloomberg surveillance ." i'm tom keene. he has a green tie, i have a green tie. i think he is more irish than i am. paul sweeney, head of bloomberg industries research. he has covered the media industry since time began. what we are looking at is john malone. he has been a dominant and destruct the voice. he missed on time warner cable and sirius and xm. as he lost financial magic
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question mark who is john malone? why is he important? >> he is really one of the fathers of the u.s. cable television industry. forefront folks in the cable business, along with the roberts family of comcast. he was a big consolidation of the cable industry in the 1980's and the 1990's. he sold out to at&t. he shifted his focus at that point over to europe, and has now been effectively consolidating the european cable and telecommunications business through liberty media. he has been very active both here in the u.s. and internationally. >> is he missing these deals, or is he lucky he is missing these deals? >> we have to see. it was a very audacious bid on behalf of charter communications, of which john malone and liberty on 27%. a bid for a relatively small cable company to make a bid for time warner cable, which is about three times the size of charter. what he did was really kicked
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off another consolidation wave in the u.s. cable tv business. he did not get the deal. >> as you know, michael eisner made a wonderful career of the deal to did not do. sometimes it is the deals you don't do. is mr. malone the smartest guy on the block and we don't know what? >> he has definitely been one of the smarter players in the business. he has done a wonderful job for shareholders. he hates to pay taxes everything he does is driven by what is the most tax efficient allocation of capital. thereieves, however, that still is consolidation left to go in the u.s. cable tv business. he missed out on time warner cable. the market is waiting to see what he does next. >> i want to rip up the strip -- script. aereo?- >> that is backed by barry diller, effectively taking over the air broadcast channels -- >> are they going to win? >> i don't think so. it will go before the supreme court. they will hear arguments in april am probably get a ruling
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in june or july. we will see who wins. it is very important for the broadcasters. >> paul sweeney with us for the entire hour. we will give you more as we look at the malaysian airplane disaster. our twitter question of the day -- what are authorities doing wrong in the search of the missing malaysia airplane? from new york city. st. patrick's day. paul sweeney, tom keene. it is a st. patrick's "bloomberg surveillance." ♪
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>> good morning, everyone. "bloomberg surveillance." radio,rning on bloomberg worldwide on bloomberg radio plus and tv as well. our twitter question of the day, what are authorities doing wrong in the search for the missing malaysia plane? i don't want snarky. i want serious responses. what are the authorities doing wrong in the search for the missing malaysia plane? our twitter question after the
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most dismaying weekend. as well.eillance scarlet fu is off today, working on her brackets. coming up on "market makers," a special edition celebrating the season of college basketball. an interview with the american athletic conference commissioner. much more on that on -- at 11 :00 a.m. today. adam johnson has our top headlines. >> bonuses are on hold at some of the world's biggest banks. "the financial times" reports payouts for foreign exchange trading teams at citigroup, barclays and rbs have been frozen. follows the manipulation of some benchmark currency rates. new york has replaced lending as the world's leading financial center. london's reputation was been -- damage due to a series of scandals that in some cases are still ongoing. hong kong and singapore took third and fourth place in a survey by a london-based
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consulting company. at the box office, "mr. peabody and sherman" took the top spot. it rang up $21 million in ticket sales. "300:cond-place went to rise of the empire." >> is that just a "game of thrones was quote take off? >> i wouldn't put it that way. but it has the same gore and gratuitous, shall we say, romantic scenes. >> very good. >> for the ladies, it has the abs. >> something for everyone. adam johnson will save us here. >> something for everyone, cash on the ballot sheets of u.s. companies near an all-time high. nearly five percent of assets. some are using that money to buy back stock am a lowering share count and raising earnings per share in the process.
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the founder and ceo of fortuna advises joins us. greg, how productive are buybacks in reality? >> in special cases they can be very productive. when companies have unusually chic -- low share prices unable to take shares out while they are low, it can be productive. but it has become a panacea or companies who have troubles. they are digging up shares to make up for poor earnings and that is not washing with investors. >> how many companies in the s&p 500 the past five years would not have been able to show earnings growth had it not been for buybacks? >> there were none that would not have shown earnings growth -- five years ago we were in a tough time. but from i've years ago until now, more companies have more earnings growth from buybacks. >> paul sweeney sees a real time in the media business -- what mr. malone missed talking about your living every day in media, aren't you? >> in media, stock buybacks and
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dividends have been a big driver of stock prices. investors would rather management teams to return capital to shareholders then perhaps m&a. m&a in the 1990's in the media sector was not productive at all. it was value destroying. >> i don't believe it is true. i think m&a has been very productive for companies in almost every industry. >> in this constructive debate about this, pick this up, please. the fine big shareholders. fidelity among wellington? the usual victims are agreeing with mr. sweeney. >> what you find is almost all the well-done studies of m&a look at share price reactions to announcement of m&a. if you look at the two years after an acquisition, on average companies be the market over the last 10 years. only acquisitions in 2007 under performed the market on average the next two years, but every other year in the last 10 years, acquirers beat the market over
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the next two years on average. acquisitions on average had been quite productive. >> here's my question -- when does the sugar buyback run out? when do we see this not working anymore? >> right now and is not working. when we look back at couple of years from now -- i don't know when the market will go down, but every time in my life when it has gotten high it has gone down low. there will be many companies saying i wish i did not buy back stock when it was 40 and it is now 20. >> you can use cash to buy back shares, by that dividends, you can use cash to acquire companies. what about r&d? >> do you agree, paul? not only what you do but all of bloomberg industries, shareholders don't agree with what greg milano is saying. >> when you are management team you step back and look at free cash flow and what do you do? historically either invested in the business, you pay back your debt -- pay down your debt or return it to shareholders. that is what boards of directors look at every year.
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it depends on what industry, and where you are in the capital cycle. >> do both of you see now an improvement in capital investment? we are hearing in other interviews that even with dividends, people are putting money to work. >> there is some improvement. no question we are starting to see some investment in the future finally. after many years. >> from your own point of view -- what is the single most the use of cash? and r&d,l expenditures organic investment. acquisitions come next. dividends come next. and buybacks on average are at the end of the list. >> this is the heart of the debate. rally hasf what the seen -- roughly half the companies in the s&p 500 has had more gains from buybacks van actual earnings growth. >> it has a trickle-down effect. >> the sugar high still pays returns but it is not his real. greg milano, thank you for
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." i'm tom keene.- with me is alix steel and adam johnson. scarlet fu said, no, i'm not coming in. >> suspending production in india over a wage dispute. he the automaker called a lockout and factories after a breakdown in negotiations with union workers. toyota says it will retain you talks with the union while production is suspended. m&a and freddie mac would be wound down in five years under bipartisan legislation in the senate -- fannie mae and freddie mac. they called for maximizing return on the taxpayer bailout of the two companies, according to the draft. assets will be sold and replaced with government bond insurance under this measure. .witter's ceo visit china -- visit china. visiting china's tech sector and will be meeting with officials from the shanghai government. twitter is currently banned in china and the company said it has no plans to change its
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service to enter the chinese market. malaysiastery over airlines flight 370 is still with us. the press conference and the last hour. some headlines is the pilot did not request to be on the beijing flight. this is important after a lot of speculation over the pilot's potential involvement. former faa deputy director of flight standards and aerospace consultant joins us on the phone. john, it seems like each day we get more answers and absolutely -- or rather more questions and absolutely no answers. this latest statement mean, that the pilot didn't even want to be on this late in the first place? >> it is unusual. and i think what we are seeing is some of the uncertainty around earlier possibilities are starting to disappear. even though it seems like there are more questions, certainly the focus is now clearly on the motivations they might've had to disable the
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systems. sense forave any why a pilot would do this and not make some sort of attempted to reach out to the rest of the world, john? >> well, we don't. although there have been two major accidents in the last 10 years or so where suicide was implicated. egypt air accident -- who knows? if it is that case maybe you would not expect them to reach out but they're certainly would be some evidence as to what the motivation might need. >> or some kind of trail. airlines said the copilot spoke the last words. what kind of backup systems and real-time data that might not be controlled by the actual crew anymore? >> i think you will see a push of some sort of day but to be transmitted and not able to be
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turned off. things like a trance under -- it could send an improper signal and needs to be disabled or it could be transporting -- transmitting on the ground where it is not needed. but other systems, particularly systems that transmit the position of the aircraft real-time, there may be a push for that now. sorts of talk, interview after interview, network after network about speculation, about a mystery a week or so on. you are the pro. what are the best practices that the faa has that can inform a 25-nation search? coordination of all of these nations together is the most difficult thing. and the faa is on the ground over there trying to help, in addition to good investigators from other countries. -- malaysiactices has to ask for help, welcome the help and not jump to
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conclusions. there have been statements about things that were completely incorrect. of war.ke the fog a lot of uncertainty. >> isley said. you are the faa guy. how do you use satellite photos, satellite images, satellite technology? how can you inform us on what guys like you do? >> the best thing i can say is that is information readily available is looked at first. the highest probability -- everything that is the highest probability is examined first. that is why they searched with the last contact was initially. as that becomes less fruitful, then it expands to any other data available. right now i would say it is a crowde search, including sourcing looking at every piece of data available. that takes time. area,unately that big of that much data, takes a lot of
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time to sort through to do a thorough job in investigating. >> john, as always, thank you for joining us. amazing, no answers yet as we try to figure this out. looking at the data, people are not concerned. markets are up on the generally speaking. >> good morning, everyone. "bloomberg surveillance" on bloomberg television, bloomberg radio, and we are on in your digital media. i'm tom keene. with me, alix steel and adam johnson. our guest host this hour, possibly need. he is head of bloomberg industries, our research group looking at industries around the world -- our guest host this hour, paul sweeney. picks the -- alibaba u.s. over hong kong for the long-awaited ipo. the company saying over the weekend this will make us a more global company and enhance the company's transparency. we will be constructive toward
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extending our public status and the china capital market. for more on what this really means, we are joined by paul kedrosky.p the -- paul what is the meaning of this, what is the real reason here? >> i think it is entirely to do with liquid markets. where you can get the highest and most liquid valuations, and really the game in the internet cycle, if you will, the second wave of all of this, get as liquid as he can as quickly as you can and use it for acquisitions and expansion. >> you said a very keyword, game. is that what it is at this point, just a game? >> it is always a game, isn't it? absolutely. it is a game in the sense where you are trying to arbitrage around the world, looking for the best valuation for your newly public company. and technology which runs in incredibly violent cycles, you have to go with the getting is good and the getting is very good right now with respect to taking this kind of the company
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-- this mix of mobile and e-commerce and even a mix of a little bit of twitter in there, taking it public on the nyse. the right decision for them. >> what are u.s. companies feeling about this? the thing amazon, twitter are scared? are they ramping up defenses? >> yes and no. the primary competitive barrier is not the orthodox stuff where they have a giant moat around the businesses. it is really about regulatory barriers ban anything else, and it operates to a barrier to other people competing with you but it also makes it difficult for them to expand. use all the warning -- use all the warning in the memorandum talking about regulatory barriers in terms of the many things you cannot say on the service, which prevents them from criticizing senior political figures. this does not fly in a service in the u.s. part of why twitter is best is you can say nasty things about major figures. >> paul sweeney joins us.
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you heard it before. just that simple. you and i have been here. >> i disagree with paul a little bit. i think the u.s. listing is all about control. 7.4% of thens about company. amazing how much is ownership has been diluted down as an owner but he and his partnership group wants to maintain control by nominating board members to keep control of the company. they could not do it in hong kong. the hong kong street did not allow it. the u.s. was open to doing it and that is why they are listing here. ul, let me go to you. goldman's -- morgan stanley, deutsche bank -- how do they spot -- respond to this move to the united states? >> it is exciting from the standpoint. this is the kind of stuff they love to sink their teeth into, in terms of these major marquee offerings. they will have a massive
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audience of institutional investors that they just finished talking to in context with the twitter ipo in the fall. they know exactly who has an appetite for this kind of offering and who will take top donna, and that is what alabama -- alibaba management wants. >> paul, i am glad you went there. what is the lesson coming out of twitter that was so much more spectacular than facebook? we talked about the time. it was so much more professionally managed offering, as they took it around. insofar as they can, they will try to follow the exact same playbook which is to say no leaks, careful control of information, a management team that is supportive of key messages, no one goes rogue part of the way through and an identified list of marquee investors to take in excess of 50% of the pre-ipo shares. smart conversation. greatly appreciate you. up in adam early. sweeneyrosky and paul helping out as well.
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i'm frustrated. i'm lost. "bloomberg surveillance." betty liu is here. we know she has tiki barber on this morning. >> what kind of show are we creating? the former giants running back is joining us. but i got the feeling you will be tuning in, tom, because the kardashians are going to be on. kim and kourtney. >> he is learning today who they are. >> i can't afford her, i can tell by the necklace. >> they have the kardashian collection -- if you were ever in sears. they have a huge collection there that has done quite well. but they are launching a kids line, kardashian kids, because many of the sisters have born babies. don't know how else to put it. they are now going to capitalize on that. o-mania.shi
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of course, i know the kardashians. when you're channel surfing, inevitably -- i see the kardashians, i pause for about 90 seconds. >> and you watch a bad reality tv. >> i suggest you look up some of the selfies they have posted. >> looking forward to it. >> thank you. >> i am. >> betty liu, thank you, with the -- kardashians this morning. this is important on bitcoin. a california man identified as the creator of bitcoin from a noorious "newsweek" article, shock, hired a lawyer to cleared his name. the magazine recently created a firestorm by naming the theicist nakamoto as founder of the currency, which set off a frenzy including with trish regan and my interview with the reported this week. he has retained a lawyer. drosky onwith paul ke
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this. this was while 10 days ago. the story continues. help me, where is the bitcoin nakamoto story right now? >> among the bitcoin community unable ton dismissive different bases. not surprising he is moving to defend himself. i suppose one of the key pieces that made people think this girl is completely awry which was straightforward, writing samples. we have huge writing samples of his writings in the context of the book point opposes and when you compare it and it politically -- analytically or anecdotal, it is not the same guy. a huge point of contention. it is not obviously he wrote those proposals. >> you are hugely qualified to and the writing nitty-gritty of bitcoin to the celebrity of it, the "newsweek" article. is it just two separate world
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and "newsweek" got it wrong? superficially exciting with easy connections to make and they made the mistake everyone makes which is -- which is to jump to conclusions, and i think it is almost certainly wrong. >> paul joining us as a bloomberg contributor. >> coming up, we will talk about one my favorite things. copper is at a 44 month low. we will talk about why. we will be right back. ♪
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>> this is important. coming up tomorrow on "bloomberg whoeillance," a woman parachuted from schroders to the small up were in pimco, we will speak to her tomorrow from pimco, on fixed income and particularly the equity markets. i'm tom keene did with me, alix steel and adam johnson. scarlet fu is deep into her brackets. paul sweeney joins us from bloomberg industries as well. right now, alix steel has corporate news. >> alibaba is coming to the u.s. for its ipo. the move comes after the company failed to win approval from chinese regulators over its
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proposed governance structure. i lead by the is valued by some by as much as $200 billion -- alibaba is valued by some as much as $200 billion. microsoft is turning to some states to help it combat piracy. it persuaded some attorneys general who oversee piracy -- that it leads to job losses at home. microsoft says foreign manufacturers cut expenses by using stolen software, which gives them an unfair advantage. twitter's ceo visits china. dick costolo learning more about the country's tech sector. he will also be meeting with officials from the shanghai government. twitter is presently banned in china. the company says it has no plans to change its service to enter the chinese market. that is today's company news from the files of "bloomberg west." let the president -- when in doubt, go abroad to avoid headaches here at home. paul sweeney from bloomberg industries. you and your team have looked at this. a lot of headlines about twitter
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revenue. let me ask a blunt question. i do not see ads on twitter. where are they? >> they are coming. and the revenue growth has been pretty astounding so the real issue is really to integrate more advertising -- >> why haven't they sell for? about thee sensitive user reaction. when you get into the twitter user experience, it is a very personal user experience, it is one-on-one. they have to be very careful on how they introduce advertising. -- a.d. steel.d why do we want ads question mark what you probably don't want them but you have to deal with it. how the integrate them so that you don't leave twitter? they will use a little video, audio, try to jazz it up to make it a little less obtrusive. >> why don't we see companies like twitter, even cable tv, pursuing some sort of no added
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rename service -- no ad premium service? >> unique usage. in order to get massive usage, it has to be free. when people think of the internet, they think free. when you pay for it, they think old cable tv, for example. x, uni getting pumped up for "games of -- "game of thrones" and anything over -- >> and add over a minute for online video. it brings me to facebook. the new video premium ads. do they have the ability to replace tv ads? is this that much of a moneymaker? >> i don't think it will replace tv ads but it will be a big business for facebook. online video is one of the fastest-growing sectors of the internet. advertisers are trying to figure out how will a reach... people spending more and more time watching videos online as opposed to broadcast television? we know the audience is going there. >> is the older audience going there? i had the discussion for the --
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with the person handbook -- who handles my social media stuff. >> are you on youtube? >> barely. >> generally speaking, no. >> i saw the guy saying "let it go" with all the disney voices. ?ut where are the olsters >> sticking with broadcast and cable television. pretty good size. let's move this with a people 25-54, they buy stuff, too -- says with people 25-54. >> the new model for new media? >> on the margin perhaps but at the end of the day the content creators have to get paid for content. >> is the new model the old model? >> they do get paid at apple tv. >> some is subscription and advertising revenue. that is the secret sauce.
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why the cable network business is the best in media because there are two revenue streams. brackets,y, basketball. all i know is wichita state is good. that is the only thing i know. i am completely dumb. >> here we go. >> there we go. bring it right over here. paul sweeney. are they good this year? >> they are good this year. >> how much is this? does cbs have it? what yes, also turner, part of time warner, splitting it. it is great for time warner because they made a big -- big investment in sports. sports is one of the john rivette really work -- >> is internet the -- >> traditional media companies are figuring out a way. think about the olympics, how much content put out over the internet. directv, which is
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sort of bypassing cable altogether and they bought rights to stream to your phone and ipad, and it does not matter where the cable is? >> a lot of this video is going over the top, leaving the traditional distribution system and going directly to the internet but somebody has to pay the rights. at 4:30and i go to bed p.m., 5:00 p.m. -- [laughter] will we get the olympic experience with march madness or are they still in 1995? >> much, much more of the ncaa content and cbs delivery will be over the internet, so you will have a lot more opportunity. >> great conversation. i> by the way, bloomberg.com -- do this all the time, i walk with my iphone down lexington avenue watching bloomberg tv. >> yourself? >> the other shows. maybe that is where it is going. no need to ring the gong.
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i was not plugging myself. [gong] >> do it again. [gong] >> there would go. my agenda is ukraine and crania, headlines coming out from all the different news surface -- ukraine and crimea, headlines coming out from all the different news sources. a cacophony out of europe. it is striking to look at the bloomberg terminal and see the cacophony of the different nations react to them. if there's one thing i have learned in the last 24 hours, the impact of this on eastern europe and to an extent continental europe is just extraordinary. are very concerned, they share a border with ukraine. >> i am looking at copper because i am a commodities geek but also a series deal. a four-year low, an incredible low we are looking at for copper . this is not a supply and demand issue, but it is a china issue.
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the majority imported into china has been financing. you buy it and store it and get a loan against it. the issue with the growth we have been seeing, will the trade unwind question might deutsche bank thinks particularly that speculation it will unwind but not unwinding yet. and that is a key distinction. >> can i do a shameless plug? your packets on copper was awesome. i am not a big fan on packages. video, alixerg steel, copper. it is a clinic on copper. >> thank you. i will take that shameless plug. >> retweet it so everyone can see it. >> what he looking at? >> opacity utilization, a measure of whether factories operating at or near capacity. it is close to a five and a half year high. when factors are operating at capacity they also tend to higher. one of those signposts, because
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at the end of the day, it is all about jobs. >> time to answer the twitter question of the day. we asked, what are authorities going wrong in the search for the missing malaysia plane. here is our first answer. still allowing the malaysian authorities to lead and treating this as a local event for way too long. the second answer -- the authorities misled and misinformed, and this will lead to resource depletion. >> we are not early in the search anymore. >> if it goes for two years -- like air france. they may notwer -- be doing anything wrong. sky may be a new chapter in jacking and terrorism that has yet to be revealed. >> nice, responsible responses in this continuing mystery in the south china sea. paul sweeney him a thank you so much today. how many people are at bloomberg industries? >> 140 people globally.
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they may be valued at up to $200 billion. malaysia has now asked two dozen countries for help in finding that missing plane and the search now extends from kaz extend to australia. malaysia heiresses the pilot did not request to be assigned to this flight. the european union foreign ministers are deciding whether to impose sanctions on russia. a referendum in crimea has paved the way for russia to annex the ukrainian region. for more on the referendum, ryan chilcote is in russia where it eu leaders are gathering. the referendum is over and russian troops are still there. what do they expect the europeans to do now? the eu foreign ministers are meeting now to discuss how to punish russia. what we expect is for the european union to freeze the assets of a number of russian officials and effectively banned em
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