tv Charlie Rose Bloomberg March 20, 2014 10:00pm-11:01pm EDT
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activists took control of sevastopol. the security and defense chief announced that they are trying plans to withdraw soldiers from crimea. crimean leaders signed a treaty with moscow, integrating the peninsula into russia, that followed sunday's referendum. the west and the ukrainian government says that the referendum, boycotted by many of crimea's non-russian minorities, was illegal. here's what vladimir putin said yesterday. >> in people's minds and hearts, crimea always has been and is now a part of russia. from generation to generation, people have this knowledge of crimea being a russian land.
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any geopolitical changes and dramatic transformation to the former soviet union did not change that. this is arguably the most areas and dangerous international crisis of the post cold war era. some are saying that we are in a post-post-cold war era. why is russia doing this now? what is it likely to do next? what can the united states do? joining me are two of the leading observers of russia, thomas graham was senior director for russia on the national security council staff from 2004-2007. he was later on the policy planning staff. kimberly marten is a professor of political science at barnard college and a member of the faculty of columbia university.
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>> why did this happen now? >> it is a confluence of events in both russia, ukraine, and in the west. in russia, it didn't happen a few years ago because russia was in the midst of an economic crisis. they have gotten past that. even though the economy is growing slowly, they feel that the worst is behind them. it is the return of vladimir putin. he took the presidency in 2012. part of his mission is that russia needed a national identity. >> until recently, the president of ukraine -- what does it
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happened without him being forcibly ousted? >> you are talking about the acute days of the crisis. this is a question that has been on the agenda for a long time. it is critical to the way putin thinks about russia and its role in the world and it is crucial to thinking about how russia exerts itself. what we have seen over the past three weeks is an improvisation. >> i want to come back to that. let's go back to mr. putin remarks yesterday. we played a small clip. what is he telling us? >> there were some themes that came out strongly. the first one was the incredible level of resentment and hatred of the west. >> it was quite clear. >> what was disturbing was that the whitney of humiliations was combined with a new move that
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had not been there before. there are two different ways that you can describe the word russian in the russian language. you can say russian citizen, or you can use a word that means ethnically russian. up until this point, he always used the first word. last night, for the first time, he used the word referring to ethnic russian. >> what should we draw from that? >> combined from this theme of humiliation and hatred for the west and trying to get back what they have lost, it means that putin has made a shift. he is no longer talking about restoring soviet glory, he is talking about restoring ethnic russian glory. that should be disturbing to anyone who has watched international events. the worst-case scenario is something like we had with slobodan milosevic. >> you mention that mr. putin
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might be improvising. he does not have a grand plan. this is a country known for playing chess. is he doing that? >> in terms of how they should play out over the long-term, he is looking at how the west reacts and then he plans his next move. he may push beyond. i was in moscow before mr. yanukovych fled. plan b was to create a frozen conflict in ukraine and use that as leverage over the central government in kiev. >> those of us who do not know, why is ukraine, why is crimea so important? is this strategic, psychological, economic? what is driving this? >> it is about the way that not only mr. putin, but most of the russian elite, thinks about
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russia role the world. we can have arguments over the history of this. part of ukraine has been in the russian empire for at least 300 years. 60 years ago khrushchev -- >> exactly. the way russians think about security -- it has always been the frontiers, as far away from the heartland as possible. >> this is strategic depth. >> yes, in many ways. this is what allowed russia to do to survive the napoleonic invasion and the nazi attack. psychologically, this becomes an important part of how they think about security. there is of course, the historical argument.
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this is about their role in the world. >> it gives putin too much credit to call him a chess master. he is a judo master. it is all about last man standing. what is driving putin is things that are happening inside the kremlin. he is using nationalism in russia to get some support among the elite. the timing happens now has to do the olympics. there was a big scandal about the corruption, $50 billion wasted. i think it is about this. >> william safire often used to write a column where he put himself inside someone else's head. i bet he would be writing a column from the perspective of putin.
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what would vladimir's column look like? would he be feeling good right now? >> he is probably feeling very good. he will keep on pushing until he meets resistance. everyone was shocked at what he has done so far. it seems like taking over crimea is a high-risk endeavor. there's not a lot of russian economic value in crimea. its water and electricity supplies come from ukraine. things have to be shipped through ports. it has to come through turkey and turkey is unhappy about what has happened. crimea is not a wealthy area. it is supported by assistance from the ukrainian government. russia has to take that over. it is on top of money wasted and in sochi. it is taking on another burden as the russian economy is stagnating. >> to what extent was mr. putin
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less secure that he saw the ukrainian prime minister get driven out of the palace. the last thing i want is some version of a moscow spring. i do not want a revolution. this is a strategic distraction in order to bolster his own position. to what degree do you buy into that? >> i think the narrative is different. what he has done in ukraine and crimea specifically fits a broader narrative about his goals. he rose to power 15 years ago. remember what russia was like. we are talking about russia being a failed state. the economy was in the tank. he came to power with a clear mission. that was to rebuild russia's power.
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if you look at what he had accomplished, he took a failed state and rebuilt it. he consolidated a system of government. the economy is revived. in the past five years, i spent money on rebuilding my military and giving russia the power needs to project its influence abroad. now in crimea, i have gone back to the soviet era philosophies. you have to deal with russia. he has left it ambiguous. >> one of the quotes from his speech and this is what i read in translation, do not believe those who want you to fear russia. other regions will follow crimea. we do not want to divide ukraine. do you believe mr. putin when he says he has had enough?
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you do not have to worry about me? >> he broke a promise today. the original promise was that russian forces would not force the ukrainian military out of crimea. we saw that happen with the russian navy commander arrested. people were being forced out. he has broken one promise. maybe he intends to have all of ukraine go back to mother russia that is one interpretation. i do not think we have any reason to trust what he says he is going to do. we are over a barrel. there's not much that we can do in response. the economies are intertwined. businesses have interests in russia. it limits the extent to which
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things will have an impact. >> is it a crimea-only holiday? that policy? >> is not crimea. crimea is easy. there is a lot of foreign and domestic policy. putin wants to create a eurasian union. that is supposed to include all of the soviet states. ukraine is a big prize. >> it would increase the population of russia. >> the argument you can make is that if all of you get out of this is crimea, you have lost strategically. if you have part of eastern ukraine, you have lost strategically. strategically. you need all of ukraine. the game is about how you get a government that is going to be not hostile.
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it will not move closer to that. it will keep ukraine in play to a point. >> professor kimberly marten just said that ancients may not do much for us. what is your view? do we have economic tools that could get president putin to temper his ambitions? >> no. we are not prepared to do a lot of harm. it has to be both. it has to be a consolidated issue. there is a lot of economic hardship you could create that might cause putin to rethink. we would have to be prepared to sacrifice on our side. they are intertwined. you cannot hurt them without hurting us. the problem is that when you look at this from the standpoint
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of interest, it does not rise to the level it does in russia. they are prepared to withstand more pain than we are. we cannot do that damage to ourselves. quite a few party expressed her skepticism on economic sanctions. what if the west increased its military collaboration? what if they increase their energy at boards? would mr. wooten still see this as tipping the balance in his favor? >> he has provoked the west. what is amazing is that prd has a great deal of interest in ukraine. they are dependent on russia for gas imports. there is a large russian ethnic population in ukraine. whatever coalition government would emerge would have to fax some russians. putin was about to sign a contract for aircraft development when this went bad. nato is going to focus on the
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east-west divide in a way that it has not done since the end of the cold war. it has made it certain that europe is going to increase its capabilities to accept liquid natural gas and other forms of natural gas. >> suddenly the russian economy is paying the price. russia is even more isolated. nato has a new lease on life. does mr. putin start confronting second-guessers? in the short run, could this come back and bite him? >> he will try to blame economic problems on the west. he has done that already. what is really going to make a difference is how the leaders of the russian business as that
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have been internationalized react to this. they are becoming pawns of the russian state. they do not want that. it will be interesting to see what the leadership in other big businesses that have interest in this become. russia has to diversify to have its economy succeed. it will be interesting if they can push back. >> if you were still in one of your old jobs at the state department. the president said, i do not want to discourage you. i want to hear your best ideas. what can we do? what would you tell the president? >> there are two things. one is we have to recognize that it is ukraine. it is where they are economically. maybe russia had some influence, but the problem is that it is drifting westward.
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the agreement was about -- nato was still on the table. one of the positive things is that we are trying to take ukraine off the table. a lot of people have talked about neutrality. can you formalize that? for some period, it gives vladimir putin confidence. >> they were going to become a member of nato and that was to reassure -- >> this would have to be something that is enforced in the united states. >> is that something the united states should be prepared to do? >> i think it is something they should be prepared to do. they should have a conversation with mr. putin about it. >> what about the idea of arming the ukrainians?
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i have heard the other side say that that is a bad option because it would be slow to have an effect. >> the problem we have is the ukrainian state. the way you would deal with it is to build a functioning ukrainian state. they do not move into places where they are going to have resistance. that is how they have operated historically. >> a functioning ukrainian state is no easy task. >> look at ukraine over the past 20 years. it is probably more correct in russia. the economy has not grown. we had revolutions in 2004. the new people came to power and they were just as bad as the old people.
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they did not put their time and energy into rebuilding ukraine. that is the problem we have now. as much as you want to help ukraine, you have a government in kiev that is composed of old people. elsewhere in the country is the old elites. is the same people who robbed the country and have not sacrificed anything. they need money. >> what if we bring ukraine into the eu? >> i think that is a wonderful idea. we have to separate the economic issues from the political issues. moldova also wants to join. we must make it clear that becoming more involved in the european union does not mean making a choice between europe and russia. it is a way to go forward. the eu made a mistake in terms of putting it as you go with the
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west or you go russia. ukraine and moldova have to do both. >> they have called for a reset. i say that it's time for a rethink. do we go back to containment? what is the nature of u.s.-russia relations? we still need some russian help in places like iran, syria and north korea. what is the approach we should be thinking about? >> putin has made clear that his greatest respect goes to those who demonstrate strength. it is important that cooperation isn't the mistreated. that is important. you have to walk a fine line
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between frankness and provocation. i would argue that there will not be another reset well putin is in office. it could be a long time. with the russian economy stagnating and russia taking on additional burdens, that makes it more possible that putin will not be able to last. >> what is the fine line? you said you do not want to have a security relationship extended. what is your sense of the message? >> is to continue to build up forces in poland and the baltic states. to continue with the exercises we are already planning. it affects all members in europe. we have to stress the economic integration question as whether it is in ukraine's interest. we have to make sure that that
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relationship becomes stronger. >> what is your sense of where we should go with that bilateral relationship? >> this is the end of it. this is a period of geopolitical power. i want to be treated as a power. they will be a big power. they have the tools to protect their interest. they have a lot of problems, but everybody has problems. you really have to build this relationship around interest as we need to have a deeper understanding of how russia create interest. not simply because we are going to look for overlap, and see how we will manage this relationship -- we have to show strength. it is not only europe. we will find that we will bump up against russia in the middle east. there will be players of some sort in northeast asia.
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there will be players around afganistan. >> 100 years after the great war ended in europe, you can see a chain of events that could be a crisis. >> absolutely. we need to see this in a broader context. there is a tendency in a lot of commentary here and in russia to talk about a cold war. the world is radically different. we need to think about russia, china, india, europe, and united eight. >> thank you thomas graham and kimberly marten. it has been a lovely conversation.
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jaron lanier are is here. he wrote a book called "who owns the future?" i am pleased to have jaron lanier back at this table. >> it is up for grabs. if things keep going the way they are, it will be whoever is the closest to owning the biggest computers. that is what it is like now. 20 years ago, if you said, who are the most influential people, -- is whoever has the digital networks. all of the influential people are closer to the big networks. it might be for finance or social networking. it might be for insurance. >> are we talking about companies or individuals?
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>> the decision is blurry. ownership is becoming more and more narrow. depending on how you count. you have a few dozen kids. good for them. i bear them no ill will. we are turning society into an all or nothing game. you get to be close to the big computer that is calculating advantages. it is a long tail. it is a long tail. >> the thesis here is what? >> is that we made a mistake. it is an honest mistake about how we manage our digital networks. i was certain that there was no ill intent. it was an honest mistake.
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it was made with tremendous purity of heart. the mistake was that if we made information open and everybody shared, if we created an informal economy, that would make the world efficient enough that it would benefit everybody in the end and would create a more egalitarian society. the mistake we made is that there are certain computers that are better calculating -- there are few examples i can give. i like to make this concrete. health insurance in the united states. as it happens, i was a consultant to what was the largest health insurance company in the u.s. i was present at the moment of the transition. ceo was in a meeting and we were discussing the data and networks
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and gathering information. he suddenly had this revelation. our business just turned upside down. before now, if i wanted to become more profitable and grow, i had to insure more people. i was trying to get people that my competitors did not get. now i can correlate people with data individually. now i want to assure as few people as possible, just the people who need insurance the least. then we had the beginning of this crisis that led to the obamacare controversy. this was effective big data.
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it was a strategic reversal. it seems too good to be true. it eventually turns around and fails. that same fact has been visible in industry after industry and government. when you first get one of the biggest computers in the world to help you by gathering information and allowing you to calculate an advantage, it is so powerful. it ultimately turns out to be an illusion. >> is this a political manifesto? >> not yet. it is a pre-manifesto. i do not want to make a mistake. one of the big mistakes, and i will speak for my colleagues, and that we were so certain we knew how to design digital networks perfectly that we had these ideas that we follow through and were not looking at
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empiricle results, -- i am not certain that there is an idea of inherent good. i am proposing experiments. i want to be an engineer, not an ideologue. if we get enough results, then we can write it up. glad you said artificial intelligence is a mashup of work done by real people who are anonymous and unpaid. >> yes. that is how it seems to me. there's a little bit of history that can explain that. natural language translation. if you go back to the 1950's, it a lot of people thought you could write a magic formula to translate between english and spanish. that would be a mathematical term. we searched for that. many people searched for decades. it turns out the only way to automate language translation, millions of translations, are from real people. we have to match up turns of phrase and context.
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here's the tricky aspect of it. in the past, you would hire a translator to do a memo. now i hear from the translators association that they are losing work, but they are still needed. the whole so-called artificial translation scheme would fall apart without these people. they are still needed, but they are not working. there has been a kind of fake form of automation. what we built is better than what we had before. we have to acknowledge that people are still needed. but let me talk about the three big areas of data that you identified. one is the crisis of 2008. the other is the nsa and snowden. the third is the problem we have had with healthcare.gov. these are all issues of big
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data. >> they all have similar qualities. is it ok if i get technical? >> please. >> statistics work. they are real mathematics. the problem is that they do not fully describe our world. our world is made of structures. i am sampling my finger. i can chart that is supposed to hit the table. all i am looking at a statistics, and it will go through the table. our world is made of barriers and boundaries and conservation principles. it stops. if you can gather enough data of the world, you can plot what kind of ad will make somebody buy something.
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what pitch will make them vote for the candidate that you want. it works. in the distance between my finger and the table, it always works for a little while. there's a gap in which it seems to be perfect. then you had the real world and something will break. one example in finance, it happens with long-term capital management. it happened with enron. it is about to happen again. >> it is? >> when this perfect machine had some very are because of the real world and it cannot be represented by statistics. it is good for a while. all these things are the midas touch at first. then they break. it happened with health insurance companies.
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we can become profitable by not insuring people. the problem is that in order to do that, you are affecting the world in a way that will make it great. the nsa had the same vision. if they could just calculate the whole world, we could have security. in fact, what you can calculate is not complete enough to give you that. you fall prey to institutional illusions. >> you believe that there is a solution? micro-payments are one way out. i currently think that they look like the best solution. here is how works. any time you contribute in your little way to a so-called automatic intelligent system, if you are a translator and your translations are written to the database, you would start to get a little bit of money on the basis of your contribution. what would happen is that most people would not make much money
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in most ways. it would be rare for somebody to make a living from one particular form of this. most people would get something. i have evidence for this. before i go into the details of how it works, i have to point out that the conception of digital networks, the origins, are precisely this. if we go back to 1960 when we saw the first proposal for digital network, they were proposing a universal micro-payment system. if you do not do this, then you have more and more machines able to do things. robotic nurses and automated factories. many people are out of work and you have a social crisis. then you are forced into some sort of redistribution scenario.
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i think that would not work. some people like that idea. if we are honest about the fact that people would still be needed to make information systems work, behind the veil of automation there are people, if we can figure out a way to send the money that they have earned, why not allow that to happen? people can make a living with dignity, even in a super advanced age. >> who started it? >> ted nelson in 1960. the technology that runs the internet. the very first origin idea. >> this is all very exciting. maybe my daughter will know. it will be a world where this is normal. >> a lot of folks these days are making the mistake of believing that personal wealth and riches mean anything.
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the only way that your wealth can mean anything if you are part of a functioning society in which there is a civil society where there are people to buy your products. if we enrich ourselves and concentrate so much that the whole thing is falling apart, which is happening in my view, our own wealth is no longer real. >> what we have to do? >> i am interested in finding moments where we can experimente of alternate models. let me give you an example. recently technology has become popular for hobbyists and it is
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starting to the mainstream. 3-d printing. that's right, right. >> they are simple these days. they are getting better and better. someday you will be able to print out your new computer. >> or your gun. >> the way this has been propagated is on the latex model. -- linux model. i think there will be a world of other systems like this. there would be drugs synthesized for you on your skin. anytime these things come along, instead of doing it the way we have been, instead of that model, we can try and model where everybody is paid. we bring people into the formal economy. as soon as we tried an experiment, we will start to see if it works. i think it will create a middle class system. >> it is a good idea. >> thank you for having me on.
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>> yancey strickler is here. he's is the cofounder of kickstarter. they launched the company in april 2009. the idea was to create a tool available to anyone to bring creative projects to life. they have funded more than 50,000 projects. earlier this month, the company surpassed $1 billion in pledges. i am pleased to have yancey strickler at this table. for the benefit of late-night folks, what is kickstarter? >> kickstarter is a website where people go and they may creative things.
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if you went to kickstarter right now, there will be documentaries, restaurants, video games, and performances. anything you can imagine. the person making it proposes the project and the public has the opportunity to get involved. they get to see what happens. >> the return is not some value or a piece of the equity. the return is a psychic income of knowing you have contributed to something. >> that's right. there is no financial upside. it is not an investment. you make a documentary, and you get a copy when it is done. some backers got to be extras in the "veronica mars" movie. >> has the mandate changed? the mission statement? >> no, we are fortunate in that the original idea we had in 2001 have been consistent throughout. it is hard to do creative things
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and make art. the only ideas that seem to get money just make someone else money. a lot of the great ideas of the world are things that people are excited about. they have passion for it. >> as somebody who supports kickstarter projects, you make a contribution because you may imagine that other people would enjoy it. unless we participate, we will not get the fruits of this. >> we are creating the culture that we want to see, rather than accepting the one we have. $1 billion has been largely in $25 increments. people are not spending their life savings. >> you just passed $1 billion. that is remarkable. the financial size of the pledges. $1 billion. is that a milestone of significance? >> i guess so.
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it is a big number. i do not know what to think about it. a lot people care about bringing things to life. they care about creative things. this happens in the past five years under economic duress. people are being told that money should be used for utilitarian things. arts budgets are being cut. the public is supporting the creation of idiosyncratic things. they are supporting their friends, their neighbors, their heroes. there is a lot of energy out there for creativity. >> you supported the documentary "square." >> it was a documentary made by a woman who was oscar-nominated. it is about the revolution in egypt. they were shooting in the square when citizen journalists were roaming around.
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that is something we were part of early on. they raised $100,000 through kickstarter last year. that was incredible. we are grateful for having that. >> what is the dollar amount for one project that is possible? >> the average project is about $5,000. they range from $100 to $10 million. >> any idea what you might do with this kickstarter? do you want to sell it or take it public? do you want to grow it and see how big it can get? >> the latter. from the very beginning, we decided that we would never sell the company and we would never go public. we viewed kickstarter as a public trust.
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this is a place of opportunity for anyone. it is our job to be the stewards and honor it. we are growing this into a living, breathing, cultural and institution. we want to be a privately held, independently-controlled institution. glad you just took over the ceo position from your cofounder? >> kerry and i had been cofounders and partners for nine years. he was ready to move on and do art and other things. it was a seamless transition for us. we see the world in similar ways. in many ways, it is business as usual. there is a lot of things going on. >> this is what you have said about kickstarter. it is the kind of thing that seems as natural as air. the structure of the system and the fact that it exists at all. it is the product of years of thinking, collaborating, building.
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the original thought does not seem very original as it once was. it is like air. >> it is. any great idea, once you see it, why wasn't it there before? there's a long history to this. alexander pope raised money to translate poetry. the medici patron system. they were all similar. this is been dormant for 100 years as we had giant corporations. the majority of products that get kick started are music or art.
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>> the most money has gone to film and games. the most albums made. there are 13 categories. there have been 500 restaurants created through kickstarter. the variety is off the charts. we have a publicly funded telescope. people are raising money to create a publicly-controlled telescope. the limits to how it can be used are limitless. >> what kind of projects satisfy you the most? >> i like the weird ones. i like the strange ideas that do not seem like they will happen. there is a project called trash dance. it is a ballet. it is a ballet featuring sanitation workers and garbage trucks. the garbage worker put together a great presentation. they have put together several performances. it is beautiful.
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that people are very creative. how do you see it growing? >> here we are five years in. april is our fifth birthday. he just continues to grow. it is over $1 million a day. we are growing by expanding to more countries. we are primarily in the english-speaking world, but that will change this year. we are growing based on projects. neil young wanted to make an mp3 player. it is a high quality audiophile mp3 player.
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for neil young to use kickstarter, maybe he did not think about it before. >> he has a lot of money. >> you would think. >> kickstarter makes it a different kind of project. >> for someone like neil young, it is about validation. it is about putting it out to the public. what do you think? do you want in? it is an invitation to participate. i have been a neil young fan all my life. the chance to interact with him in a different way is incredible. the fact that money is involved is secondary to the relationship. neil young, marina abramavocih, these are some great artists. >> we are up to 80 people. >> we are up to 80 people. we just across the river into brooklyn. it is becoming a new ceo. i am serving those people. there are millions of people who are part of this. we want to bring these people into the fold. there are 50,000 people who gone through this. it is an amazing thing.
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here's how you make a restaurant. here is how you make a short film. there is a great community that we can build off of. but you are sharing knowledge as well as ambition. >> we are building a community of people who are really very actively in trying to reshape the world. take starter plays into our better angels. what can we do for each other -- kickstarter plays into our better angels. what can we do for each other? >> if someone wants to be a kickstarter, what do you do? >> you go to the site and click start and you go through the process of building a project. i think kickstarter can unlock your ideas. a lot of what happens is we think of ideas -- >> your idea is molded and shaped in a new way. >> is always your vision.
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our thinking is that it is your platform to do what you want. but you do not have to think about how much money you need. >> what is the makers movement? >> there is a real change happening in how we appreciate where things come from. what you see through kickstarter is a real revolution in manufacturing. if you think about it and you look at a kickstarter project, you see how this comes to be. you have a visit to the factory and the creator. you have a sense of the global supply chain. a product might get clocked off a tree by magic. in actuality, there are years of work. all that is hidden behind the curtain. now you can see giant companies emulating kickstarter. the process can be transparent.
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you can see how came to life. even if the products have an author. the exposition of that and the sharing of that, it really raises the educational awareness level. people sense that you can do this too. we liked this as a cultural sea change. it has happened pretty quickly. i'm eager to see where it goes. >> who are your heroes? >> that is a good question. i would think of a few things. harry smith from folkways. he wanted to record all aspects of sound. kanye west is a hero of mine. he's fully himself. he's a very self-possessed artist who is not afraid to be vulnerable in front of millions of people.
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live from pier 3 in san francisco, welcome to the late edition of "bloomberg west," where we cover the global technology and media companies that are reshaping our world. our focus is on innovation, technology, and the future of business. i'm emily chang. >> alibaba leaves an investment in a tangle. also, the paypal founder will be joining us later on. he is weighing in on carl icahn's proposal. symantec has fired its president and ceo after two years on the job.
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