tv Bloomberg Bottom Line Bloomberg March 21, 2014 2:00pm-3:01pm EDT
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>> from bloomberg world headquarters in new york, i am alix steel in for mark crumpton. economicsottom line," with a main street perspective. a new into the return of cold war and we will have the latest on march madness. for viewers here in the united states and those of you joining us from around the world, welcome. happy friday area we have. her job the stocks and stories
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making headlines -- happy friday. we have coverage of the stocks and stories making headlines today. we have peter cook in washington. inn chilcote is live brussels with the first bloomberg interview with ukraine's party leader. good evening, ryan. >> good evening. today was the day for geopolitics, the eu leaders really striking a deal with you credit -- ukraine, making the same trade deal be ousted president of ukraine rejected for months ago here -- four months ago. you have the russians completing their work speed annexation of crimea, the russian president completing the process with a stroke of the pen.
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a day when you could really feel the gears of influence moving. sam paul ryan, talk about this much anticipated sit down with the member of parliament, vitali klitschko. so he is the reigning heavyweight champion. that is what many people know him as. he is also a leader of the political opposition in ukraine. he led the fight against the ousted resident viktor yanukovich. yanukovich. viktor the election is set for the end of may. i asked him in this not so >> time in ukraine, what he thinks russia is up to? he think that russians will move into other parts of the country? >> the russians want to take more of ukraine, i am more than
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sure. took this oldn russian city. crimea is russia, part of russia. and other cities also. that is their main goal, to take all of ukraine. talked to -- they understand the russian army is much stronger. but we stay and defend our country. >> i asked, of course, vitali klitschko, if he becomes president how will he rebuild relations with russia? obviously important because russia is extremely important and a large neighbor for ukraine. he said, i think i can make that work. back to you. >> thank you, ryan. we hope to have the full interview coming up on "bottom
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line." you are looking at live pictures from crimea. you are looking at a celebration in the region, voting over the weekend to join russia and annexing thely region. the ukraine crisis has brought back memories of the cold war. relationships are at their lowest point since the breakup of the soviet union, both countries imposing sanctions on the other. the question is, which one can do it fast enough? >> what we continue to see is that russia is increasingly isolated and the united states is leading the international community in opposing russia for its aggression against ukraine. >> for more on where the showdown is headed, i want to bring in our chief washington correspondent heater cook. -- washingtonve
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correspondent peter cook. and also we have another correspondent. what is the number one we expect to hear, peter? clear from thes briefing at the white house that ukraine has become rather a big topic for the resident. he is headed to europe for a nuclear summit that has been planned for sometime. ukraine is important. we got that sense from ben rhodes and also his national security adviser, susan rice. the feeling from the white house if they cannot isolate russia with these economic sanctions. tot of the work next week is make sure the europeans and the white house remain on the same page with the tough sanctions and keeping the same message to vladimir putin. rices interesting, susan saying that is not how they expected the russian relationship to play out over the last couple of years. they did not expect the obama
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administration to be squaring off. that is where we are right now. >> indeed. these sanctions, there are indications they hurt a little bit. what is the expectation about how long that may last? it is not soint, much a matter of how long it will take to have an effect on russia's capitalists, or whether they will have an effect. air is a sense that vladimir putin has decided this is an existential issue for russia. the crimean peninsula has always belonged to russia and he has made it clear that he is worried about the encirclement of russia by nato. we have no fewer than 12 eastern that are members of nato. they certainly did not want to see ukraine become one of those. when we talk about the sanctions, there is also the concern to which these sanctions will come back to bite the
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european union, which is much more trade exposure to russia than the united states. >> heater brings up a good point. -- peter brings up a good point. what is the key distinction? >> the american sanctions have been tougher. we have gone after bigger fish. the last round of sanctions targeting some of the business leaders who are closest to vladimir putin, top officials in his government. have notean sanctions gone as far. part of the president's challenge will be to bring the russians -- the europeans along, to keep the same tough message. obviously, i think the big distinction for it is as indira the european union has a lot more at stake than the united states. >> and they said that these talks had to be related to crimea and not necessarily defensive mood going forward.
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what is the ongoing relationship between russia and the united states? i think about the international space station, to be honest. >> i have not heard any analysts talk about it going that far. there are many ways that the u.s. and russia have had multinational cooperation. i just got back from bno where we had a week of iran talks. the u.s. and russia set on the same side of the table, powers that are trying to pressure iran into not having a nuclear weapon. right after they finished, the russian deputy foreign minister made the point that, hey, if the united states and the eu are going to go ahead with the sanctions, we may have to not cooperate as much on the iranian side. they had used the so-called northern distribution network for supply lines in and out of afghanistan. russia can certainly shut that down because a goats the russian
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territory. there is also syria. how much cooperation will russia provide on that? there are a number of pressure points russia has. >> they definitely have, but the fact that they are vocalizing it is a little frightening. peter, is there any talk in the administration about that kind of retribution? >> according to the white house the reason the russians are at the table on iran is they have a stake in the outcome as well. their hope that the standup in the sanctions do not overflow into these other issues. it is pretty clear they will. what they believe that there is a reason for russia to be at the table separate than their relationship with the united states. >> i have to ask -- what is the biggest distinction -- indirect, i will start with you, but peter, i want your take as well -- between me cold war relationship and current u.s. -russia relationships? >> the most important point,
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particularly because so many commentators have been throwing out this new cold war term. let's face it. it is not the same. russia does not have this communist ideology. we do not have this ideological battle. what we see right now is a russia led by vladimir putin, a former kgb leader, who is essentially conservative nationalistic in its tone, also what a lot of people call it crony, not quite capitalism, but certainly cronyism and the economy. it is not something you could see latin american or african states rallying around. it does not have the same ideological weight. and let's face it, the military economy of current day russia is extremely diminished compared to what it was when it was the soviet union. keep in mind, the russian economy is two dollars trillion trillionred with 17
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dollars each with the u.s. and the eeo it is not a consideration there either. there is more diplomatic isolation and pain that could come. >> peter, what about backing away from that new cold war mentality? >> it has been interesting. here in washington there are members of congress who have experienced wistful feelings for the old cold war. we could understand the russians back then, the soviets, and we knew what they were going after. the zero-sum game of the cold war reality. now it is not the case. it is hard to know what vladimir putin is really after. i don't think anyone wants to go back to the cold war really, but it will be chilly for some time to come. >> thank you. indira in washington and 8:00, our chief washington the whiteent outside
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>> be sure to check out the newest edition of "bloomberg businessweek." you can also read it on our cap as well. be sure to check it out. welcome back to "bottom line." we are streaming on your phone, your tablet, and bloomberg.com. for mark steel in crumpton. my next guest has been in investing in russia since 1993. he is the founding member of austerity capital management. he joins me from london. -- founding member of prosperity capital management.
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thanks for joining me. what changes have you made in your investments in the last couple of weeks? >> we do not make that many changes on a weekly basis. we are long-term investors. we have fairly large stakes in good companies around the world. of course, we are monitoring everything that is happening summit to see if anything changes fundamentally, but right now our investments are working as normal. yourfore we get to investments, you have visited the russia-ukraine region. what was your take away? of.e were in key we -- kiev. we have investments in ukraine. relaxedal, they were about the situation and very pleased they got rid of the previous government. they hope to have less corruption. they hope to have a broader
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relationship with the eu. most of them are content. >> you have a little investment in ukraine and a lot and russia. how much do you have in russia now? >> probably about $3 billion, probably the largest investor in the market. >> what stocks and sectors specifically are you invested in? >> generally we try not to invest in sectors. we invest in companies that have good management teams that are really trying to increase value. we have quite large investments in the oil and gas sector, retail, consumer goods, phones, and so on. >> and you have exposure to the stock market, down or 10% since the end of february. the ruble has taken a tumble against the dollar. soaring.ds are also wind of those numbers start to affect your investments? -- when do those numbers start to affect your investments? >> we always look at it like any
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fund manager will do, but the average dividend yield is around eight percent. we think a lot of these companies look very attractive. >> does that mean it is -- do you welcome this volatility in the market right now? >> no, of course you do not welcome this kind of event. the volatility -- we have gotten used to volatility and 20 years in russia, of course. a lot of things have happened. at the same time, the companies have made progress. you see a lot of great entrepreneurship. sure. president obama is talking about energy, or injured nearing, metals, and agile services -- engineering, metals, financial services. at what point do they start to worry you? >> i think the sanctions are quite complex. i do not think the eu would really like to have sanctions, from russia,as
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exports into russia, which is one of the most important markets they have. they will probably continue the work, blocking visas for individual people, but it would really hurt the european economy to make real economic sanctions. >> that is europe, but the u.s. is taking a much harder line. it does seem to have a trickle-down effect on the local banks there. if the u.s. a real worry for you? >> u.s. and russian trade is very small. basically the u.s. exports i.t. equipment and movies. the real trade relationships are with europe and with china. those will not be affected. have may say we will sanctions to russia, but it does not actually mean anything. and those that probably would mean something, they are not
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saying that same thing. i do not think it is very likely it will make any difference. >> overall, it does seem that president latin america -- president vladimir putin is willing to sacrifice short to medium growth to win the standoff, if you will. russian gdp is under two percent. where is the will -- real growth? >> most of the growth is coming from the consumer sectors, from entrepreneurship, domestic goods and services. oil and gas is growing, but not that much. sure, putin is prepared to sacrifice economic growth in order to face down the situation. but i don't think it will be that much. of course, investments activity may be a little lower for the next year or so, but we have taken down our focus for this year a bit. but like i said, we should not exaggerate this thing.
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>> should not exaggerate, ok, fair point. what is your best estimate this year for russia? >> i think we will only see one percent growth, which of course is less than we would have wished for, but not catastrophic. >> not catastrophic, and betting it seems like on the longer-term. thank you, materials --mattias westman. up next, julie hyman is on the markets. stay with "bottom line." ♪
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which is how i watch. coming up tonight, al hunt interviews the current brookings institution president about the ukraine and the future of the region. also talks to a white house adviser on the situation in ukraine and how it might affect the economy. >> we are certainly monitoring that situation closely and there are a range of things that affect our economy. that is certainly one of them. what is going to happen with consumer spending, what is going ofhappen with housing -- all that matters, too. >> definitely looking forward to that. you can catch al's full conversation with jason furman tonight at 9albott p.m. on bloomberg. theit is 26 minutes past
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hour. you know what that means. it is time for on the markets. is a witching day. that is the expiration of certain futures and options contracts. tends to cost -- cause a little bouncing around in the market. hold hisould not level. we see that down. we will probably see more bouncing before the close. the against pc security software maker has fired its president and ceo steve in it as it struggles with the shift to -- steve bennett as it struggles with the ship to mobile devices. and we are also watching edison international. disclosedcompany has costs related to one of its nuclear plants in california. the plant has been closed since 2012 when it leaked radioactive water. reactors on the site, saying it would take regulators to long to decide if
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>> welcome back to bloomberg's "bottom line." steel and four mark crumpton. happy friday, everybody. -- i am alix steel in for mark crumpton. recapping our top story, formally annexes crimea into russia. this seals the deal. tonely conciliatory apparently aimed to contain what is one of the worst crises in russian relations with the west
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since the cold war. as we mentioned earlier, ryan chilcote spoke with the ukrainian parliament member vitali klitschko. he asked if he thinks that russia wants more than crimea. >> the plan of moscow, yes. it is not crimea. the main goal is the capital of ukraine, kiev. --hout ukraine, russia cannot remain in power. >> you really think that the russians want to take kiev? >> the russians want to take all of ukraine. i am more than sure. president putin told parliament, city.iev is old russian yes, crimea is russian, parts of russia, the history of the people. that is why i think the main goal is to take all of ukraine.
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>> presumably if the russians want to take eastern, southern ukraine, kiev, they can easily do that, right? >> yes and mia. -- no. side, theilitary russians have huge potential. much more tanks, much stronger air force, much bigger army than ukraine. and actually, it is possible from one side. from another side, it is impossible. the ukraine military. they understand the russian army is stronger. but we stay and we defend our country. >> do you think given the closeness of russians and ukrainians -- you were discussing this earlier -- her father was a military man. you grew up all over the soviet
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union. -- ares are aries wrong. quite strong. do you think they would shoot at one another if the politicians said to go to war? >> we are different countries. we are different place. but we are close. not by war, but always by war. for example, my family, i am half ukrainian, half russian. my mom is from russia. my wife, her father is from russia, her mother from ukraine. we have friends from russia, a lot of loyalty in russia. but anyway, we are different countries. we have different history. different goals. >> do you think you'll ever get crimea back question mark is it even worth it?
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is it even worth trying to take back crimea someday? >> someday, we have to show some good example. offind the elliptical parts our -- the political part of our agreement with the european union. i'm sure in a short time we will make a good european reform and and better social standards rebuild the infrastructure in ukraine. this will be very good example. suppose so, the crimean's will want to join? crimeans will want to join? >> yes, it is true. >> do you agree that these european sanctions are light and will not accomplish much? >> i understand the sanctions are painful for the european
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union, but they are much more tame full for russia. >> economic sanctions. that is what you would like to see? >> we would like to see economic sanctions. agreement inan 1994. if ukraine it give up -- add russia and united states and great britain work together to guarantee the independence and the immunity of ukraine, what happens right now? the russians break all international rules. >> these sanctions now, do you think they will not work? willthink the sanctions work. >> the ones that exist now, you think they will work? but if it does, not work, our european friends, we have different layers of sanctions. to go to the economic
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sanctions. a lot of people talk about the lawlessness in ukraine. the clashes, some acquired weapons illegally. some do not want to give up the weapons. at one of the political parties, for example. how easy is it going to be to establish order in ukraine, to get things back to normal? does note the police have the respect for the people. it is very corrupt. defends. that is why we have the idea to national -- >> national army? >> national guardian. national guardian army. square rules. and everyone who was to work for
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the country, who wants to defend the country, go to the army and the official. this is one of the ways how we can put order on the street. -- youestion for you have elections coming up. for you as a presidential candidate, how important for it -- for you is it that ukraine becomes art of the european union? you know that is something it seems russia would not go for. definitely nato. we have discussed right now about that. bloc status that ukraine had 20 years ago does not work. we should see these examples. the government falls
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down. our neighbor country that has the exact same position as to deep steps to rebuild the infrastructure, to make reform in the economy. i mean, the czech republic, do it very good of time.short period they make reform, but corruption. it is a very good example for ukraine. this is the main priority for our country. president, howe will you rebuild relations with russia? it's obviously important. it is a big neighbor. can you do that? >> it is very important to rebuild relationships with all country members. i think everyone is interested to have one of the largest
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countries in europe with federal, political, and economic status. we have to build good relationship, try to build good relationship with russia. it will be very difficult. with what russia has done with crimea. you think you can after this is all over? >> we have some idea to make crimea -- [indiscernible] it is no military forces anymore in crimea. to have a have different layer of relationship. and after that, have russia make ukraine.reform to we can build, i hope, with russia, we can build good
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>> our next guest says that advertising interest for march madness is rising above big brads. he has negotiated hundreds of sports sponsorships over the past 30 years for amtrak, subway, wise snacks and buffalo wild wings. welcome. we have to talk about the update of the bracket. it is crazy. >> unbelievable. duke is out. it is an incredible upset.
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i'm sure a lot of people across the country are looking at their brackets and saying, what happened? >> totally. i don't even know where that was. what is the viewership like the last couple of years? >> ratings have really grown. a couple years ago when turner and cbs got together and decided to televise all of the games at the same time, so they are actually on four networks, plus mobile, and in addition to all of the networks to leviathan all of the games and the mobile they have outlets, set records for all that networks -- all four networks in the live streams. >> how are they watch? >> i think during the day, most people are watching at work. >> on their ipads? >> some of them actually have a boss button where you can press the boss button if you think he or she is coming.
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>> that's funny. >> and then they can go back to -- spreadsheet. >> does that >> does that present more opportunities? >> advertisers are not only buying more commercials, but they are interested in fully integrated lap forms. >> if you are doing bit platforms, can you avoid the ads i switching from device to advise? >> i do not think you can avoid it. there's a lot of digital domination. they are not only buying broadcast, but they are buying digital and they are buying it as a combination. >> oh, i see. >> when the viewer goes on, you see that banner and you have to watch a commercial. >> what is the pricing like? >> it really gets sold in a package. as you get closer to the final four, the ad spots go from one
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$1.5 millionrs to per unit. really they are sold as a package so you're buying broadcast and mobile. is more than nfl postseason, baseball postseason. i was surprised. >> it is. think about the amount of games. three weekends. four days. four days this week, next week, and then you have the final four and the final two. you have 68 total teams playing. >> what sectors are most interested in advertising? beer and wings? automotive is -- absolutely huge. the insurance category. >> really? >> allstate spends a significant amount of money and they make a big bet on march madness. the insurance category is very large. you have northwestern mutual as
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a corporate order of ncaa. you have quick serve restaurants very interested in march madness. subway, burger king, other brands. they are spending significant money, why? you have young men, a little bit older men, non-casual, casual sports fan as well as the non-casual sports fan. they're all tuning in. have 15 seconds here, but president obama also may be advertising. tell us about this. >> is incredible. president obama and his administration believed this is the right audience to reach. they have magic johnson and a few other high-profile athletes to film those commercials. they will be running in the final four and i think it will really have a big impact. your you feel good about final four? >> i'm still in it. i did not have duke.
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>> welcome back. let's get you the bottom line on next week. joins us from washington with a preview. we are making up for lost time on ukraine? >> it looks like it will be the top of next week's washington agenda as the lawmakers come back from that recess. quite a few of hearings scheduled. some of the highlights include a senate cloture vote on moving a ukraine aid package forward. provide a $1d billion loan guaranteed, authorize direct assistance, and include more sanctions against
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certain russian and ukrainian officials. on tuesday, the house foreign affairs committee will and setter whether increasing u.s. natural gas exports might help rake up russia's energy stronghold over ukraine and the -- right up russia's energy stronghold over ukraine and jack thewill testify over at the imf.ukraine and president obama will travel over europe and the middle east. quite a few meetings, not just limited to the middle east either. fun the middle of next week. >> fine is oak -- fun is a good word for it. maker lands to raise money and it's first ipo.
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past the26 minutes hour. bloomberg television is going on the markets. wereis witching day futures and options contracts are expiring, we see a lot of volatility. the s&p 500 did such a record, but did not stay there. the announcement this week that shares andld lifted the united states, expanded to exceed the facebook ipo offering. we are joined with an expert on how you may get through the eps, maybe get some of the alibaba mojo. so how can you do it? >> it is harder than you think, the alibaba ipo. because they are going to list in the united states really shines a light on the hot mess that is the chinese share class. it's very complex. it is not going to be like any --etfs.jor e tfs
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isbecause of where it traded. >> it's really important. you have to go to the specialized etf. i think the one that stands out is -- having a bang up year. it is crushing by 26 resent year to date and the reason is it does not have these hot tech companies. this one captures tech companies in china wherever they list. >> got yeah. gotcha. gettingest of china is drained of flows. >> what about the ipo generally. it has been performing very well? >> yes, the ipo market is very hot on its own. one that is left, the
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renaissance ipo. they got lucky with the ticker there. etf.a fan of this i call a catch and release. they taken ipo five days after release int and they two years after they have sucked some of the returns out of it. a great example is facebook. it's about to leave this etf. it has taken six percent and basically well -- >> where it matures and fizzles and they are not victims of that beyond the two years. this is a fund, this is a bracket busting etf. walk us quickly through this, what you mean by that. economist gotvery their brackets decimated. >> not unusual, sadly. >> it is hard to predict anything.
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some of the ones that got destroyed -- one of the most boring etf's that everybody -- >> every bite that would do terribly. >> the rates fell, and that messed everybody else. this etf has taken in more than the last four years combined. >> the other two quickly? >> the junior gold buyers and the other one is xl you. it will not know if continue to outperform as the rates go in, but we will check that in with you as the rates go up. more on the markets in 30 minutes. "street smart" starts now. ♪
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>> i am trish regan, everyone. yesterday we saw strong economic data, but looks like it was not strong enough to save us from ending the week in the red. health care and telecom leading those losses. "street smart" starts now. all right, welcome to the big show this friday afternoon. the most important hour of the session. coming up today on "street smart ,"
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