>> turkey's prime minister declares victory in local elections and pledges to pursue those behind allegations against his government. we are live in istanbul. u.s. secretary of state john kerry says russia must pull forces back from ukraine's border while his russian counterpart calls for more autonomy for ukraine. paris alex its first female mayor. all about the ipo frenzy this morning. so far, china's market for new listing lands on top and europe's more than tripled.

a warm welcome back to "countdown." i am anna edwards. let's tell you what is coming up later this morning on "the pulse " we will be joined by the former tesco boss. he will discuss one of his newest ventures and share his thoughts on u.k. business. before all that, let's get back to our top story. what has been taking place in turkey. prime minister erdogan has declared victory in local elections. let's get to istanbul where we are joined by elliott gotkine. >> a huge victory for prime minister erdogan. alongside thening mayoral candidate for a stengel where he won -- for istanbul

where he once ruled the roost. his party was very much in play here. questions, wasd he going to win more of the vote, would they hold off, would they hold onto istanbul? the answer to all of those questions, yes. he has scored the political equivalent of a hat trick. he felt emboldened yesterday when he came onto the dock any outside his headquarters in the turkish capital to greet thousands of cheering supporters. he said that his victory was a defeat for the politics of lies and montage, reference to the allegation of corruption that has appeared on social media over the last few months. certainly, erdogan will feel emboldened as a result of this. policy, stronger

politics and stronger democracy. the economy, the wealth of turks here has tripled over the last decade or so. when it came down to it, they trusted prime minister erdogan more than they trusted social media. interesting that this is but the ruling party tried to emphasize, the economic success even as turkey faces slightly slower growth in the most recent months. this is a man who has been in power for more than 10 years. does anything change from here? global turks was telling us they don't expect anything to change. we don't expect prime minister erdogan to be gracious in victory. he has vowed to go after those people that he sees as being behind the revelations, the corruption allegations that have purportedly implicated him, his

family and other members of his government. the person he sees behind that is a clark. been searching and no doubt purges will continue. after this victory, erdogan will feel he has been given the green light to continue in his economic policies, also his policies on social media and going for the presidency. we are due to have presidential elections here in turkey in august. we may expect that position of president, which mainly is ceremonial in turkey, to be emboldened or bolstered somewhat were erdogan to run for that. goes, as the economy growth expected to slow now but the lire is strengthening. >> fascinating.

politicalns when a establishment takes on social media. thank you. elliott will be with us throughout the day with more coverage. with a record low turnout, france's local elections on sunday saw a shift towards right-wing parties. our next guest says french business owners don't trust the government. is the -- from paris great to have you on the program. thank you very much for joining us. these are election results being seen as a disappointing event for hollande. how does business interpret the result? what do you think is the message for french business from these elections? >> good morning. i think what it says is that the future ahead is going to be rather difficult. politicalajor

instability as well as economic instability. you are aware that the past two years have been very tough for french businesses. there is a major distrust in the government or its ability to implement business laws. the economy in france isn't doing well. all thegging behind major economies in europe. right now everybody is in a stop and go mode where you invest just what is necessary to keep his nose running. we have no vision of the future. what we have witnessed in the past two weeks with the local elections is not going to sue the future for us. -- soothe the future for us. >> what should be at the top of the to-do list of the french government? should it be around tax reform,

labor market reform, what would your suggestion be? >> it is all in one word, flexibility. of fiscal in terms ,aws, in terms of labor market everything is very rigid. nowadays, what you need is a major shock. you need to make things easy. in france, everything is difficult. i don't want to sound like i am but we have taxes almost every six weeks. we have a new tax or new regulation, the labor code is the size of a phone book. it is maybe bigger, making things very difficult to adjust to cycles. nowadays, companies need to be extremely flexible because business cycles are shorter and shorter. you cannot adapt to the world economy and france is now part

of a much bigger economy, which is europe and the world. you cannot adopt although cycles with a very strict and rigid set of laws, whether they are fiscal or labor. we need to make things easy for france. >> do you see anybody within the french political establishment who has the willingness and the tenacity to take on far-reaching longer-term labor market reform? us ist history proves to that it is easy to have ideas but it is much tougher to implement a them. nowadaysto think that when you look at the political scene in france, whether left or right, they seem to come from the same mindframe. , somebodyn outsider from the real world who has been in business, somebody who has

worked in private companies. i am sure you will remember that most of the governing body in france is made up of civil servants. we need a major shakeup in terms of the political model. fast ando make things we need to adapt very clearly. when you look at the economic dashboard of france, i think things are very alarming. you need to act very fast. whether all the major political figures that we see now will be able to implement what is needed, i doubt it. i think we are at a very special aresroads and clearly we calling people from outside the political framework. >> you have business experience. are you putting yourself forward as someone up to the challenge? >> i don't want to be

implemented in politics. i was a vice president of an organization which performs lobbying activities with the government. we are not a political organization. i have been doing that for 13 years and trying to change things and show the real world to people who always seem to look at the world through its assistance -- through statistics. thank you -- >> thank you very much for joining us, laurent vronski. andng up, sanctions discussions between the u.s., russia and the european union over ukraine. we will be looking at how germany's date business is making itself heard. ♪

>> time for today's company news. samsung, a supplier of batteries to apple has agreed to buy thiel industries for about $3.3 billion. the deal expands the reach of sdi's lithium-ion battery business through the chemicals and electronic materials supply chain.

deutsche bank is considering whether to refrain from working on china nuclear power groups ipo amid a probe of hiring practices in asia. deutsche bank received a request for information from the u.s. ftc late last year. huawei, china's biggest maker of phone network equipment posted record sales and earnings on demand from wireless carriers. huawei is broadening its product lineup with smart phones, tablets and business computing products. welcome back to "countdown." i am anna edwards. in paris-hour meeting yesterday, u.s. secretary of state john kerry pushed russia's far ms. -- foreign minister to withdraw from ukraine's border. ov -- ryan chilcote is here with the details. >> not so much what they accomplished, all they really

accomplished was to meet again after they speak with their respective leaders, but we did get a sense of what they are after. you have got to bank cold war foes -- two cold war foes talking about a third country. the russians have made it very clear. they want the russian language enshrined as a state language alongside ukrainian. it was, by the way, a state language up until president yanukovych was ousted. want, theyhing they want ukraine to say it will never join nato. geopolitics important here. the united states wants russia to pull back its army which is on the ukrainian border. the u.s. estimates that russian fortis -- forces are about 40,000 strong. they want the russians to talk to the ukrainians which the russians have refused to do thus far.

heard the ukrainians saying russians should focus on internal affairs. the beginning of talks. >> what about the way that the european corporate scene has been reacting to the sanctions conversations? german companies have made some public statements against how europe has been handling the crisis. >> maybe we shouldn't be surprised. from a german expert perspective, russia is there 11th biggest market. it is one third of the french market for exports. it is half of the you k's. $36 billion. last wednesday, the siemens ceo went to meet with president putin. back in berlin, they said, why did you do that? the ceo came back, gave an interview and said, we are just looking beyond short-term volatility. it is an important market for them. that is not it.

we heard from the face in group enkrupp ceo saying it hasn't been very pragmatic. they are in their big battle with nike. putin should have been brought into the political process earlier -- >> he thought more conversations should have been happening. >> bottom line, russia is the third biggest market, you have got the world cup coming up and their share price is down 15% since january 22. a big reason for that is all the tensions in ukraine. people thinkthe b they are going to lose the russian market, but the russian ruble is down. looking back at the first quarter, a lot of companies with exposure to russia are saying, ruble weakness really hurt us. that makes their competitors but

more attractive. >> all of that takes place at a ,ime when the micex is higher having bounced back a little bit from earlier. >> as has the ruble. things do appear to be stabilizing. >> thank you very much, ryan chilcote. let's get back to the macroeconomic agenda. euro area inflation will be released later today. estimates are for a slowdown that would keep pressure on the european central bank. manus cranny joins us. a really important data point for europe. how weak is it going to be? what are the expectations? when you introduce that macro inflation, everybody has practically gone to sleep. why does it matter? it is what you and i think prices are going to do. are we locked into a cycle of prices continuing to drop?

we are looking at the lowest in four years. that is the conundrum. we are in that self-fulfilling or self reinforcing spiral. look at the two biggest names. he says, this is temporary. very clearly not in that kind of cycle. thirds of the deceleration is down to energy prices. it is down to what they call unprocessed food. >> isn't that fruit and veg? >> sorry, they are processed. on the other side, you have mario draghi saying, we are ready to act if we see this is a situation that is really gathering strength. we are ready to act. don't worry because all the action we have taken so far is going to take in. not so in spain.

retail sales fell there as well. and in germany. >> parts of germany, we got data which certainly was below where many economists predicted on inflation. what is the market expecting the ecb to do with this data? market investors thinking the ecb is going to do more to stimulate the euro zone economy? >> i think there is a great deal of hope. it is a question of when all the doves are crying. euro/dollar is down for the second week in a row. what you have got here, bank of america saying deflation has become a clear and present danger but the market is not positioned. they say the market is not positioned for a cut. not right now. possibly later in the year. sachs saying, the

biggest single piece of information that the ecb will look at is liquidity. liquidity that they pumped into the banks which the banks are paying back. liquidity is at the lowest level since 2011. that causes the overall drivers to the real market -- >> i heard it. when doves cry. that little prince song. thank you very much. manus cranny on euro zone inflation. just ahead, european ipos saw their best start of the year since 2007. we will see how they compare to the rest of the world. that is coming up after the break. ♪

>> welcome back to "countdown." i am anna edwards. it has been the best start to the year for european ipos since 2007. joining us now to talk through ourbiggest deals is european business correspondent, caroline hyde. how strong a start to the year is this? >> $18 billion from in europe, that is triple what we saw in the first quarter of 2013. the best in seven years. the relief from the recession in meant that it lord a lot of companies looking to sell

shares in the third quarter, trying to get to the starting blocks early. europe beat asia and the united states. it was the best-performing region. we can see how it stacks up compared to previous years. >> not as high as 2007 but well above last year. >> i think what is really interesting is when you drill down and look at which companies are coming, it is those that are exposed to the consumer. retailers, those are the areanies people betting going to do a lot better as we start to spend more. for listingsa hub from all over the world. what we are seeing here is a lot of u.k. businesses tapping into the recovery. quite a domestic story being illustrated by the companies that are choosing to ipo right now. >> exactly. boo-hoo, the online fashion retailer. they came to the market.

even companies such as pets at home haven't fared so well since the listing but it is a bet that these companies will perform better. even russian companies. down 7% since they listed, probably over concern of the volatility in russia. there is a bet that the consumer is returning to europe in general. that bodes for those that are in the pipeline as well. just eat, and online takeaway company growing in the united kingdom, they are set to sell shares. >> europe doing quite well compared to other parts of the world. >> interestingly the united states fell. asia ass a big player,

well. >> thank you very much. coming up, we will be live in istanbul once again. prime minister erdogan against twitter. how did they fare against each other? or analysis when we return. ♪

>> welcome back to "countdown." let's get to manus cranny for the fx check. >> we are seeing turkish lira rise, euro fall. it is time to get involved in their assets. a little bit more continuity comes through. have a look at the aussie dollar/dollar. this has to be the biggest monthly gain since september of last year, up 4% in march. people taking money off the table ahead of the rba meeting tomorrow. goldman sachs saying you may get a rate cut. i will leave you with a look at the euro as we go into the one-month high -- one-month low,

excuse me. cut their bullish positions on euro/dollar for the first time in seven weeks. >> thanks very much. these are the bloomberg top headlines. author michael lewis says high-frequency investors have made tens of billions of dollars taking advantage of legal loopholes involving the u.s. stock market. the author has a new book out. "60old the cbs show minutes" that his research revealed stunning conclusions about traders. >> the stock market is rigged. ,he united states stock market the most iconic market in global capitalism is rigged. by a combination of the stock exchanges, the big wall street banks and high-frequency traders. >> the intergovernmental panel on climate change has issued a warning. the group said climate change is no longer a hypothetical part of

our future. it says the impact has already occurred. killerel pointed to the heat waves and the drought in australia as examples. china's president is in brussels for talks with several european officials. belgium is looking to increase its trade with china. the european bloc is china's largest trading partner. the party of turkish prime topster erdogan came out on in local elections even as a corruption scandal and crackdown on social media energized his critics. elliott gotkine sent his report. >> twitter doesn't have much to do with the price of fish but it has dominated discussion about these elections. >> i don't think this was a good move.

as people were communicating with each other, it wasn't a good thing to do. thing, nothe best just for him but for other people as well. >> by blocking twitter and youtube, prime minister erdogan deepened the divide between his supporters and opponents. point people who at this immensely dislike erdogan are the ones who are mostly outraged and affected. are so memorized by his persona that they are ready to do anything that he wants them to do. >> this time around, he just wanted their votes. allegations purportedly indicated him and his family. these elections came down to a question of who turkish voters trusted more. prime minister erdogan and his

family or social media. for those keeping the faith with twitter and youtube, what happens next could be equally epic. >> probably there will be a move after the elections that criminalize usage. >> of course, the cover meant can also unblock twitter. prime minister erdogan is not a man known for backing down. elliott gotkine, bloomberg. our middle east editor joins us now live from istanbul. elliott. >> thank you. first off i can tell you that we saw the lira strengthening earlier in the day. discuss the implications of this election victory for prime minister erdogan and his party. by a global source

partners advisor. bank -- wone istanbul. massive win for erdogan, right? >> a very good win for erdogan. his rivals are unhappy. they all have something to take home. contestedstill being and there will be a recount. escalate tog to reach a crescendo during the presidential elections in august. >> what happened here? through these leaks that were going on in social media, did it just fail to stick? voters simply trust the prime minister more than they trusted social media? >> there were two bank unknowns -- two unknowns going into these elections.

how hard the economy would be hit, we now know the corruption allegations have had a very minimal impact. perhaps they changed votes by 1% or 2%. in terms of the economy, the currency stabilized in march. the slowdown hasn't hit the population yet. [indiscernible] looking at the last three declined, their total from 58% to 45%. >> what happens now? ,f the economy is growing between now and august are we load of borrowing and spending by the government to try to underpin its core voters? >> erdogan will crack down very

hard on what he considers dissident groups. -- theill be presidential elections are 50-50. erdogan ishink that a shoe in for the presidency? >> definitely not. [indiscernible] unless he manages to stimulate the economy which i think he will fail, manages to convince with ev concessions financial remark seem to respond favorably. we have stock futures rising. what is your take? market is a bear

market until next year. [inaudible] it is not simple political uncertainty. i think turkey deserves the kind of issues that rotten assets do. a lemonade the politics. -- eliminate the politics. [indiscernible] economy, stimulate the which means -- >> investors seem quite content. we will leave it there. thanks so much for joining us. today after these local elections in which the party of prime minister erdogan has one on 45% oft 45% -- wio

the vote. >> thank you. now, shipping in australia's great barrier reef marine park is expected to triple over the next 15 years. it is renewing the debate about commerce versus conservation. , paul allen reports. trades it stores a reputation on images like this, the 1500 mile-long great barrier reef. it is itself a living structure of coral. it also has an uncomfortable neighbor, the coal industry. >>: accounts for about one in andy five dollars directly indirectly in the queensland economy. >> that is set to grow as the coal basin to the west is exploited.

it was an be dredged and developed into a large coal terminal. 3 million tons of dread spoil will be dumped in the marine park. shipping is forecast to triple by 2030. the development hasn't escaped the attention of the united nations which will consider in june whether to list this site as being in danger. >> we are running a huge risk. we have the international community concerned. unesco is extremely concerned. we are talking about millions of cubic meters of dredged soil being dumped in a fragile pristine environment. >> shipping is closely regulated in the marine park. the council says there has only been one safety incident in 10 years. it points to a government study which found most of the damage to the reef has been from extreme weather events and an infestation of starfish.

>> there are nongovernment organizations who are lobbying the world heritage community to declare the great barrier reef as endangered. we need to understand their motivations. what they are trying to do is and gasn the coal export industries of queens land. they will say anything and do anything to achieve their goal. industryland's coal has every reason to feel paranoid. it has been the target of greenpeace and its trademark eye-catching campaigns. the conduct of expending resources companies was also attracting the attention of fund managers. >> it is associated with a broader environmental and social government issues. perspective,tor's this raises a number of questions about how those companies are managing, what the potential future risks might be.

>> in this case, it is being balanced with the future of the greatest living organism in earth. >> for more coverage from around the world check out our global video channel on the free bloomberg tv plus app or on apple tv. coming up, they may have outclassed their rivals in defending their world series crown, but it was what the team did after the match that really had people talking. hot shots is coming up. ♪

>> welcome back to "countdown." i am anna edwards. 15 minutes until the start of european equity trading. we are getting the latest gdp numbers from the french economy. french q4 real gdp unrevised at plus 0.8% quarter on quarter. that is the headline number. real gdp unrevised at 0.3%. we have got plenty on the eurozone to,.

manus cranny joins me on set now. we have inflation numbers out later this morning. it isyou look -- interesting when you see that french number, pretty much unchanged. the pmi's last week suggesting early growth for 2014. that is something that draghi is going to be look at as he goes into this meeting. i thought we would just quickly focus on the quarter. i think the equity markets are really fascinating. if you look at london, paris and france -- london, down over two percent. paris up nearly three percent. when you look at the periphery, you begin to understand the push that has been coming through. the ibex up nearly 4%. in italy, that is where you begin to see the real impact of these bond yields collapsing. far thisup 13.3% so

year. the equity markets are telling a geary phenomenal shift in about what the thoughts are in terms of the periphery. the unemployment embers in the u.s. at the end of the week. japan, the sales tax. >> that comes into force tomorrow. ahead of that, disappointing numbers on the retail environment in japan. this morning we had industrial production numbers that fell. the question is whether that economy tends up to that increase in taxation. >> you have the reserve bank of australia meeting overnight. >> busy week on the macro front. thank you very much. let's take a look at our top corporate stories. caroline hyde is here. where is the focus this morning? >> keep an eye on the italians. unitare looking to sell a that manages nonperforming loans. they are concerned about whether

they will be covered in terms of risk. this is a unit they want to spin off. they want to get these loans off their balance sheet. they could sell the unit for more than one billion euros. see their shares rise, the biggest italian bank. lender, looking pretty buoyant. they have been giving back money to the state after having being bailed out. restart payingo their dividends. the shareholders will be pleased. we will start to see money going back to the investor base there. they want to start that next year and up the overall dividends they pay. they want the payout ratio to increase 40% at least. also, return on equity. they say they are going to start returning 10%, 13%.

optimism coming from ing. looks like optimism coming from unicredit as well. >> we will keep an eye on the banking sector. thank you very much, caroline. 11 minutes to go until the start of european equity trading. futures for the moment looking just a little bit positive. just ahead, the top stock picks from our next guest as we start the trading week. stay with us here on "countdown ." ♪

to "countdown." i am anna edwards. nine minutes ago until the start of european equity trading, the first russian of the week. our next guest is here with a couple of top stock picks. angus campbell, thank you for joining us. a fairly quietbe weeks in terms of earning reports. but we have got a couple of interesting companies reporting. let's start with tomorrow. we get numbers from my cap. what do we expect to see there? >> icap is a company that is very dependent on trading volumes. it has had a tough year so far. the shares have really underperformed. they have been quite volatile themselves. that is because the fourth quarter of 2013 was particularly poor.

volumes were quite low. of course these regulatory risks are around icap as well. that is going to really increase competition quite a bit. they still maintain a very strong position that once they , they are still in quite a strong position. they all must have a quarter of that market. the stock has had a tough year. this is a level where maybe it should be considered very interesting in their training statement tomorrow. the dividend is just under 6%. it is still very cash generative. >> let's talk about a high-growth company, asos. they have results out on wednesday. march was not a kind month to

this business. the questions being raised by investors, are they about whether there is growth? faste they more about how they should go after that growth? >> i think that the main thing that happened in march, we saw almost a third wiped off the share prices. people realized this isn't a pure internet stock. it is a retailer after all. it has to incur huge losses. it has to reinvest. capital expenditures have gone up significantly. that has really pushed costs higher. people are thinking, this can trade over 100 times earnings. it has to come back. russia and china have also made investors completely rewrite the stock. will come back in line with the general retail sector even though it is still trading on huge possible earnings. >> let's talk about the market overall. the ftse down year-to-date.

still struggling to take out that all-time high. we had a couple of goes at it in the last decade. struggling to get back to those levels. >> i don't want to spook anyone markets arethe struggling. they really are. the ftse hasn't got to that all-time high. we had a poor january. we are about to close negatively for this quarter. >> this is the last trading day of the quarter. >> it doesn't bode well. april is quite a bullish month for the ftse. this time around, people are thinking about geopolitical tensions in ukraine and russia. china is slowing down. it was a huge force behind this rally. there are concerns over what the central banks are doing. the ecb isn't easing and the federal reserve are tightening. happensll see what in the next quarter.

thank you very much for joining us. that will do it for "countdown." "on the move" is up next. stay tuned for turkish gdp. those numbers break at 8:00 london time. we are live in istanbul. i will see you tomorrow. ♪

>> welcome to "on the move." i am francine lacqua at bloomberg european headquarters in london. we are just moments away from the start of european trading. our markets team has everything covered from companies to currencies. here with me now, manus cranny and ryan chilcote. elliott gotkine is in istanbul. manus, let's kick off with you. a look at the markets. >> we are coming to the end of the first quarter. markets are looking a little better this morning. you have erdogan, hollande losing control. you have the italian prime

minister saying growth might be as we expected. we are waiting for inflation data. there is this weight of expectation that the ecb needs to do something but our loan likely to act. >> manus, now let's get to elliott. turkish markets are higher after the weekend election. >> they are, francine. the turkish lira came under a lot of pressure in the wake of those corruption allegations on social media. turkish lira is up 1%, a two-month high. turkish stocks open higher as well. any second now we are hoping turkish -- expecting turkish gdp figures as well. an estimate is for just over 4% growth.

>> thank you so much. i am looking at figures now. they haven't crossed yet. we will bring you the latest. ryan, you are watching russia. the u.s. secretary of state and russian foreign minister met yesterday. take a look at the russian stock market, the ruble, the ruble strengthened a bit. the stock market is up. people increasingly think there won't be another wave of economic sanctions. , no clearpositive resolution for this conflict just yet. >> we are still watching ukraine. we are watching turkey. we have a little bit of corporate. we are watching futures and indices. it is all about inflation. >> we are expecting the lowest number in almost four years. german inflation data coming in below estimates. the spanish come out right deflation.

the backdrop says that you could get a little bit of a low number. 0.6%. what you have to do is counterbalance that in terms of improving purchasing managers index. softer data is coming through. the germans are spending more. you are also seeing french gdp unchanged as well. the backdrop, it is push and pull as far as that data is concerned. >> this is basically concern about deflation. give us a sense of what the markets are thinking. >> markets should open a little higher. you have the ecb meeting, the cpi data, the unemployment data in the united states of america. you will get some private payroll numbers as we go to friday. the number of the week will be 175,000. equity markets are opening firmer. retail sales in germany are higher than estimated, putting the quarter in context. it is a very clear story, for

example the london market down over 2%. paris up nearly 3 present. germany up about 0.3%. you looking at italy up nearly 13%. spain up nearly 4%. those yields, those bond yields collapse in terms of the periphery. you are seeing these equity markets really attract a new flow of capital. that is one of the biggest debates out there, how much of europe is being bought. tradesough euro/dollar just off 1.40. this is the german utilities, they have signed a letter. this is a company backed by friedman. cker this is -- moncler this is the luxury ski wear. novartis is a swiss pharma

company. drug, take their test big-name, you live longer. if you take that drug, you live longer. they are coming off trial, going to ask for early marketing for that drug. that is about replenishing the overall revenue flows within novartis. doctorsblockbuster rolling out. euro/dollar, 1.3752. traders preparing themselves for movement? if not, thursday. the consensus is, no movement but preparing themselves for something further out. action? that would be a whole new paradigm for the ecb. >> thank you so much, manus cranny with your market check. joining us for more on the

markets, chief investment officer at axis investment management. great to have you on the program. give me a sense of how much you are focused on the ecb. this is the big one. we are expecting them to maybe deal with it this week. >> there has been this long running hope that there might be some stealth qe or action. i would be surprised if they did anything. as far as europe is concerned, the data is a little bit mixed. i think mixed will do. as long as we have that situation in place, i think equities will be fine. fixed income will remain unattractive. that is the situation going into the second quarter. >> i know data is next. we are dealing with possibly deflation here. this is a specter far and beyond

previous problems that the ecb has had to deal with. think about japan 20 years ago. >> i doubt we will get to a situation that extreme. morenk it is scaremongering than anything else. it is not the sort of concern that we view very highly. >> what does it mean for your equity strategy? >> not much has changed. the only thing that is difficult is it is harder and harder to find value. that is more of a challenge now than it has been. it is harder to find new positions to add to. you find yourself holding onto things longer on the assumption that the equity markets are going to continue on its trajectory. ultimately, your force is in the equity market pretty predominately. >> but you are quite cautious on equities overall. how do you counter the fx effects that we are seeing?

becausee cautious only multiple expansion is not quite the same as earnings expansion. multiple expansion, you're seeing predominately because money is flowing and because there is nowhere else to go. that doesn't mean the valuations are always correct. it is difficult to find the value. what you find is that the more momentum stocks that you are to take on, the higher your risk profile. profiletalk about our as being cautious, those are the ones we avoid. we don't go for the fed stocks. that is where the money will instantly come out the moment there is any kind of shocked. >> thank you so much. we will come back in a couple of minutes and you will tell us why you like some of the u.k. food retailers and some tech stocks. stay with us. this is what else is coming up on "on the move."

a vote of confidence for turkey's markets. prime minister erdogan vows a crackdown on traders. today's inflation data could make or rake president draghi's next policy move. we talk to an expert. ♪

i am francine lacqua in london. this is "on the move" on bloomberg television.

here is a stock that is on the move. it is novartis. final phaser said a clinical trial on a treatment for chronic heart failure met its goal. they intend to ask local regulators for market approval on the drug. a new drug that could potentially be a blockbuster sending the stock gaining some 3%. turkey's ruling party came out on top in sunday's local elections even after corruption allegations and crackdowns on social media angered many voters. elliott gotkine is in istanbul with the latest. victory for prime minister erdogan. >> a huge victory. the latest figures for the turkish economy, we just how about as well, 4.4% growth in the fourth quarter. that is about 10% better than economists were estimating.

good news for the prime minister this morning. a lot was riding on this vote for him. the clique questions were, was he being the -- would he be able to win over more of the boat? would his party win mayor in istanbul and ankara? yes to all of those questions. ankara, the turkish capital, was very close. some suggested there could be a recount there. that is unlikely to temper. the jubilation and the thirst for revenge of the prime minister in the wake of the election results. when he took to the balcony outside his headquarters, he told thousands of supporters, this was a defeat for the politics of lies and montage, a reference to all these allegations over the last few months purportedly implicating him, his family and many people in his government. ultimately, voters decided they trusted prime minister erdogan

more than they trusted social media. >> what happens next? >> very good question. that may depend on the final outcome of the ankara vote. prime minister erdogan will go. ahead. he says that his victory will press for a stronger economy, politics and democracy. he intends to go after his dissenters. that could mean a further clericwn on the us-based who was said to have many followers in the police and prosecutors office. they have already had a purge there. in terms of the economy, many people expect things to carry on as they were before. we have seen a reaction in the stock market with stock rising. ofhave had our first news investment in the form of small

acquisitions. from an economic perspective, certainly things look to be good. economists expect the economy to slow down this year to about 2.2%. before starts to bite those presidential elections in august, that could spell some problems for prime minister erdogan. >> thank you so much, elliott gotkine from istanbul. still with us, johnny metta, chief investment officer of access investment management. it were basically telling me is difficult to find value in stocks right now because a lot of them are frothy. how do you play this in the equity markets? what about emerging markets? is it something that you like? >> yes, but you have to be specific. that is a lot of square miles of area. we do like some emerging markets. i don't know if you would call

south korea and emerging-market. as far as fiscal discipline is concerned, it is a country that has that in spades. we like korea telecom. we are looking at samsung electronics. that hasn't hit our price target yet. >> turkey? >> no. we haven't seen any reason to even look at it. >> just because -- -- ithink it is probably is a market for specialists. it is not a market that we concentrate on. or 30ow india was 20 years ago, you have to have people on the ground there. i thinkon't do that, you stand the chance of being quite badly hurt. >> interesting. what is your take on india? >> india has had a lot of money flow coming into it. has al feel the rupee

long-run trajectory of weakening and that is not going to stop. we are having a little bit of strength recently. if you look at the longer run chart, it is in the red line. into indiaoney flow is concerned, i think it is quite seasonal. i don't think there is that much more upside. >> interesting. overall, what is your take on china? is that the emerging -- the ultimate emerging-market? if china goes down, the rest of the world will go down with it. >> china has a problem to the extent that so many western big businesses are exposed to it. a lot of, mining, index percentages are exposed to chinese gdp. as far as that is concerned, it as to whatun topic chinese gdp is. relatively positive in the --ium term are there

although there are a few signs that it is weakening. we are buying things that we like in china for the long-term. short-term, we would be neutral. >> thank you so much for now, johnny mehta. we will be talking more next. u.s. secretary of state john -- pusheded your russia's foreign minister to remove russian troops from the ukrainian border. the men met yesterday in paris. ryan chilcote joins us now with all of the details. basically, they decided to postpone the talks to another day. >> i think the biggest conclusion was that they agreed to meet again. what is interesting is you have these two former cold war adversaries sitting at a table, laying out what they want to see in a third country, ukraine. russia saying it wants to see the russian language installed again as a state language

alongside ukrainian. that was the case until president yanukovych was ousted a while back. the second issue is, they say they want to see this devolution of power. they want the region to have more power. they want to make sure ukraine nato.ot join on the u.s. side, they want russia to pull back those forces just east of the ukrainian border. they would like to see the russians start talking to the ukrainians, something we haven't seen yet. as for the ukrainians, they say these russian demands are outrageous. the russians should be concerned with their own internal affairs. >> german companies have made public statements on the sanctions against russia. give us some details. they are the ones that are closest to russia and have the most to lose. >> they might have the most skin in the game.

we see a lot of german ceos , theeing at how germany european union and the united states have handled this crisis. it kicked off with the seaman's ceo in moscow last wednesday. he met with the russian president president outside of the capital. that ruffled feathers in berlin. he said, we are not going to let short-term turbulence get in the way of a long-term relationship. he is not the only one complaining. there were other interviews with other ceos. they said the situation could have been handled better. they have seen their share price fall by about 15%. president putin should have been involved in the discussions about what happens in ukraine earlier. pretty easy to understand the germans' concerns. for them, russia is their 11th biggest trading partner.

36 ilya and euros of german goods were sold in russia last year. that is not as big as france which is three times that. not as big at the u k which is double that size but it is important. it is expected to grow. you see the german ceos waiting in there, trying to get the german government to not impose any economic sanctions that the u.s. keeps pushing for. >> enck you so much. johnnyhoughts with mehta. are we underestimating the impact this will have on the economy? >> i don't think it is over yet. crimea had strategic importance. think that was their mission. heould be very surprised if tried to take it any further. that is what may spark a real

change in sentiment. what wouldbably change the perspective of international companies in relation to russia. then we end up with a real international threat. at this point, i don't think sanctions -- >> we started the interview by saying that you are looking for value. you see value in u.k. food retail, drillers and also technology. i am intrigued by technology. that seems to me like the valuations are so crazy and some companies. what are you looking at that is of good value? >> within the technology market, there are a lot of different types of businesses. we tend to go for the very simple businesses which have cash flow and earnings, which are relatively established in their businesses and might be overlooked or treated as old-fashioned technology.

we do like cisco. we like businesses like this which are sustainable. they have their problems and maybe they don't have what they used to. like the dependability of the businesses and the market positioning. it is difficult to avoid value traps. what you have got to do is take a view as to whether the position is for a turnaround going forward or a decline. we have to take a commercial deal on that. >> really interesting. thank you so much for joining us today. coming up, price pressure. today's inflation data could make or break president draghi's next loc move. that story and much more still to come. ♪

>> welcome back. euro area inflation is out this morning. manus cranny has all the details. quite a big important piece of the jigsaw puzzle that the ecb president has to deal with. >> asbury time we galloped towards this data, the market may take some action. the question you have to ask yourself is, are prices a self-fulfilling prophecy of the climb? two thirds of this deceleration is to do with energy and unprocessed food.

mario draghi, another important voice in this debate says, don't worry. growth will come. things will get better because of the action we have taken so far but we stand ready to act. onin had outright deflation friday. germany had disappointing inflation. i think it is a piece of the jigsaw and there has been a lot provarira case and -- cation. >> i have to look up that word. talk to me about rates. >> it is about getting ready. the big debate is, will they go for qe? for me it is all about doves crying. last week it was voice after voice after voice trying to guide us. critical issue, goldman sachs said there is one number we have got to look at. the liquidity in the banks. ltro is the lowest since 2011.

>> thank you so much. manus cranny with the very latest on inflation. coming up, the biggest quarter for ipos in seven years. ♪

>> welcome back to "on the move ." i am francine lacqua at number european headquarters in london. we are 30 minutes into the trading day. this is a picture for the markets. european stocks are rising. this is after the biggest weekly gain in more than a month. last week. investors now awaiting data out of europe and america. manus cranny has all the market movers in terms of individual stocks. the federal reserve chair janet yellen speaks in chicago today. investors await later on this week payroll figures.

a look at the top individual movers, manus cranny has more. >> let's kick it off with italy, up 3.4%. what i am hearing is they have u.s. and european institutions coming in. got the, have they secret replacement in terms of blockbuster drug? they have a drug that helps people who suffer from chronic heart failure. they are going to go for an early request for marketing. oncler,kes us to m and ipo that was rather successful. moncler sees a growth scenario in 2014. -- onetrading up 0.3% percent.

>> manus cranny there with our top three stock movers. these are the bloomberg top headlines. prime minister erdogan plans to chase so-called traders. this after declaring victory in the national polls sunday night. his party won 46% of the vote. u.k. home prices rose for the 14th straight month in march. that is the longest run of gains in almost seven years. 0.7% andices climbed half of all districts reported gains. lewisall author michael says high-frequency investor has made tens of billions of dollars by taking advantage of legal loopholes in the u.s. stock market. he has a new book out. he told the cbs show 60 minutes that his book reveals some stunning conclusions about traders. >> the united states stock

market is rigged. >> by home? >> a combination of the stock exchanges, the big wall street banks and high-frequency traders. >> pretty big allegations. it has been a while of m&a's going public. caroline hyde has been tracking the biggest wheels. a preview now of what to expect. >> it is fascinating. forpe, the best region initial share sales in the first quarter. $18 billion is how much was raised. that is triple what we saw in the first quarter of 2013. a significant increase year on year. what is fascinating is where these companies are coming from. consumer cyclical companies. ,his is a bet on the region that the region is exiting recession and that consumers are going to go out and spend. that is what lured the big

companies to issue shares. also, companies, online retailers such as boo-hoo as well. russian chain as well sold shares. there is more to come in the pipeline. you have just eat, and online takeaway company. it could be valued at 1.5 billion pounds. careance, holidays, health , another looking to enter the market with shares that could value the company at 3 billion pounds. a real pipeline of those companies exposed to the consumer set europe apart with $18 billion worth in the first quarter. >> how does europe compared to the rest of the world? >> it is the biggest performer. asia was just he handed. billionsed about $15

mainly from chinese companies. a lot of companies lined up to sell shares. rose of companies' shares significantly once they sold. 48 companies coming from china helped set asia apart. the u.s. is the outlier. a fall in the number of shares that were sold. dropping 20% in the united states, may be a bit of concern about being rained back by the federal reserve. did that stop a few companies coming to the market? number one for initial share sales in the first quarter of 2014. >> thank you so much. for a closer look at the ipo fever, we are joined by alastair warren. great to have you on the program. thank you so much for coming in. what is driving these ipos?

we talk about more confidence on the markets. the ceos, what do they tell you? >> there is a bunch of things. as you have identified, one of the things is that the macro backdrop is stable. markets are good. markets have been trading up. above that, there are a couple of things. one, the flow of funds into equities has been high. observed, there has been a pretty close market for a long time. with this opportunity against reasonable valuations, they are trying to use that as a roof. private he equity funds have been a big proportion this year. >> in 2013 we didn't see that many deals. is this going to continue? >> i think you already observed the volumes.

first quarter on force quarter, up three times. you are going to see an even greater pickup in terms of the second quarter. probablykely to see twice as many deals, probably more in the second quarter. we see it continuing through the year. the main reason for that is the desire on the part of funds to put money to work in the equity market. >> it seems that there are many more retail ipos. why are they so popular? are we going to see more before the end of the year? >> you have seen many retail ipos in the u.k. market. if you look at the underlying macros, the u.k. is seen as being a relative outperform her in the context of europe. consumer and retail plays are a great way of playing that recovery. i suspect that trend will continue. some of thek at

other sectors, tech is one that we talk about day in day out. what are the three sectors that will outperform the rest? end of thelready fight, anything consumer retail is important. anything that is a disruptive business model. you talk about just eat. both consumer facing but also disruptive. to the extent you see technology companies coming, there is that theme. some of the traditional robust plays. business services. alternativeg to see financials be a prominent feature of the market. >> you mentioned this a little bit, the play between the u.s. and europeans. is u.s. investor appetite so this more it makes sustainable? >> when you look at the fund flows, they have been good. when you look at the last year, there has been a dramatic rebalancing. we estimated about six or nine

months ago, a 200 billion other underweight of u.s. investors in europe. the pace of fund flows, and frankly the relative valuation particularly against a recovering economy, means that entrants are going to continue for a while. >> talk to us about overall volumes. we put it into context in 2013. ceo's had money but they were reluctant to come into the market. what about previous years? is it similar levels? to precrisisk back levels, the current run rate of ipos that we have seen in this first order and what we anticipate for the second quarter is comparable with those precrisis levels. is that sustainable? >we think it is. when you look at the quality of businesses, they are good. fund flows are good.

as with any market, it is cyclical. it won't go on forever but it will go on for a meaningful period of time. >> what is one thing that ceos ask you most? is it china? are they concerned about interest rates in the u.s. or is it whether china can hold it together? >> there is a bunch of short-term things. over the last couple of months, the whole situation around ukraine has been a big issue. we had a big debate with a number of issuers as to whether go or not. china ebbs and flows in terms of the news flow and so does the u.s. by and large, ceo confidence has never been higher. that is not to say they don't have tactical questions. ceo confidence has never been higher. >> thank you so much for joining us today. that was a really good conversation. coming up, great expectations. chief executive anthony jenkins

is in the middle of a turnaround project at barclays. he could be in for a grilling at the annual investors meeting. details are coming up next. ♪

>> welcome back. i am francine lacqua and london.

this is "on the move" on bloomberg television. the french took to the voting booths to choose mayors in the first nationwide test for socialist presence first francois hollande after months in office. what are the main lessons? here is thatsson it is a sanctioned vote against the socialists and the hollande government. it is pressing this consent among -- expressing discontent against rising taxes. the socialists lost control in about 150 towns across the country. some very symbolic ones include to lose -- toulouth. one of the symbolic things is the gain of the national front. the anti-immigrant party.

the national front only gained control in about 15 new cities but it is a very symbolic front. they have only presented about 600 candidates out of 36,000 constituencies. has taken a softer approach from her father, focusing on a nationalist approach. giving jobs to the french people first. she has done better in those regions most affected by the crisis in the north and southeast. turnedaris, the voting to the advantage of the socialist candidate. >> that is right. he is going to be the first ever female mayor of paris. she has been the first deputy to the current mayor since 2001. she is the daughter of spanish immigrants who came to france

when she was a baby. she promises not to raise taxes for parisians during the next six years and promises to create 10,000 new housing for parisians every year of her mandate. >> what does this mean for president hollande? >> the next big question is, when will the cabinet reshuffle? 78% of the french people according to the latest poll want a change of prime ministers. is the interior minister who has been vocal among the government. also, the foreign minister. hollandeurse, francois has to react quickly and cut taxes. he promised to introduce payroll tax cuts for companies. in order to do that, he has to find the money. back to you. much.nk you so

coming up, the pulse is just 15 minutes away. it is going to be an exciting show. guy, we have a heavy weight of the retail industry on. >> we do. have you forgotten that it was 15 minutes away? moving on, we are going to talk about tires today. it is going to be an exciting conversation. here is why. this is an interesting company. it is called black circle. to what is atech fairly mundane piece of equipment that we all have to use. the industry thing now is there is a guy, you may know him, he used to run tesco. he knows a little bit about the retail sector. he is a significant stakeholder in this business. he is now on the board of this business. what does terry ;eahy -- terry leahy make of the tire business?

we will talk about the overall retail environment at the moment. credit growth, etc., all of this, we will take on. a big chunk on the tire industry coming up. i know it is a favorite subject of yours. >> the pulse coming up in 12 minutes. we will talk about turkey and france. one is a holiday destination. the other has some good things about it. we will try to find them out. guy johnson, thank you. here are some companies on the move. bligh vh s agreed to -- to buy cheil industries. this expands the reach of the lithium-ion battery business. novartis says a final phase trial for a heart failure

treatment was successful and it plans to ask global regulators for marketing approval. showed that patients who took the drug lived longer without being hospitalized for heart failure. deutsche bank is considering whether to refrain from working on china general nuclear power group's ipo. germany's are just bank employs the daughter of the chairman. the bank has been working on the ipo for about nine months. they received a request for information about hiring practices from the u.s. securities and exchange commission last year. staying with banks, 19 months ago anthony jenkins took the reins at barclays and set out a bold new strategy for his firm. he pledged to control cost and boost returns. so far, both goals seem to be losing him. we now have more on chickens'

report card. -- jenkins' report card. >> there were a few things, a few headwinds he was facing. business has slowed in some of the key businesses. on the other hand, he has clearly struggled to reduce the overall rate of compensation within the bank. bank stille the needs to apply compensation policies in line with what the eu wants. imposing limits on total pay and the composition of pay that need to be applied globally. challengesue are the that barclays is facing? >> as far as the business is

concerned, the fixed income business, those challenges aren't unique at all. ubs,are saying, look at look at credit suisse, they both take a look at their models and are scaling back from fixed income. to any banklies that faces regulatory challenges. regards toy with capital and holding more capital against the business. >> thank you so much. the program, we have plenty to talk about. it is the watch just ripping with innovation. we will tell you what makes this small watchmaker tick. ♪

>> welcome back to "on the move ." i am francine lacqua here in london area one stock we are watching is swatch. plans for 200 more stores and in the coming years he would like to boost the proportion of sales from swatch's own stores. the world's biggest watch fair is entering its second week.

the on all the announcements by big brands, smaller watchmakers that are forced to innovate to stand out. htc watches is one of them. bloomberg found out how they did it. [indiscernible] my name is vincent. i am the ceo. we have been trying for the last to avoid liquid inside the watch. here we are using liquid to tell the time. innovation is the key thing. hyt is based on innovation. we didn't want to just create another watch. it is all about the design. innovation is the key driver. it is all about the innovation.

the hand here indicates the minutes. i can move. hours by the liquid and minutes in the center. if i go to los angeles, i go backwards. my liquid is going backwards. we have something which is easy to understand. to make it happen is like three years of work. is lots of mechanics and engineering to make it happen. >> seems very fragile but pretty good-looking. stay with bloomberg tv. guy johnson and i are back with the pulse coming up next. don't miss our exclusive leahy.ation with terry in the meantime, you can follow us both on twitter. just a reminder, a lot of these european stocks are now

advancing. watchinginvestors

>> turkey's prime minister points to a crackdown. he seeks to avenge for a series of corruption scandals. victory ineclares local elections. francois hollande expenses a shakeup in his government. >> plus, feeding the frenzy. as european ipos have their best start in years, we will tell you what is driving companies to market.