investigation since 2011. this is progress. they took a hit just a couple of weeks ago in terms of their exposure to the mortgage market. this is in regards to the tax probe. are we at the end of the tax probe provisions? some people say, not yet. more importantly, if you are a u.s. citizen doing business with credit suisse, are they going to hand over your name to the irs? >> caroline, you're watching amazon. >> it wants us all to become amazon addicts. it wants us all to do our shopping via amazon and tv is another tactic of that. they lure us in with this fire tv. it says it goes perfectly with its prime instant video. you buy the box for $99. you get the subscription to the video. you then our lord in -- lured in.

it makes you just buy everything that much easier. it is locking you into the ecosystem. is, ifncern for fire tv you're in europe you can't get it yet. it is only available in the and add dates. >> a couple of weeks? >> we don't have a date. >> thank you. let's get the berlin now. david, it is decision day at the ecb. >> mario draghi, the president of the european central bank, he appears to be drawing a consensus within the governing council to act against deflation once the european central bank decides that it is not an absolute threat. he has the president of the bundesbank on his side. talking about the possibility of quantitative easing, the possibility of negative interest rates. >> thank you so much. that is our top story of the day.

we will be following euro/dollar. manus, you are also watching just eat. >> online ordering food from your tablet, any tablet. 260 pence. they are going to raise pretty much the money they wanted. it is a business model that works. it is the biggest online restaurant directory aggregator, whatever word you want to choose, in the world. they have a dominant position in the u.k.. je.re waiting for ticket waiting for an opening price on that. there might be a little bit of a clamor. >> we're expecting it to open in around five to six minutes. ecb, weof course the have a little news in terms of corporate scum amazon, credit suisse, big china story. extra becauseng they are worried they won't hit

that 7.5%. >> they are going to be driving corporate sentiment. building up the picture to what is going to come out from nonfarm payrolls tomorrow. christine lagarde says that you need something much more unconventional here in europe to drive the economy. china has gone for a little bit of a step forward towards building the fund for railways area -- railways. you have got a little bit of a discourse going on here. let's look at the dax. it was the one future dipping on the open. it is deutsche bank. deutsche bank has been down graded. let's go straight to that. they have been cut to neutral from overweight at jpmorgan. there is concern about the amount of capital that deutsche bank has. that is possibly going to see another hit in the trading. the dividend also looks a little

bit too rich for jpmorgan. justies overall, the dax coming back to unchanged. a moderate opening. we won't belabor too long on deutsche bank. another couple of companies. credit suisse opens up 0.1%. that doesn't give you a real price disclosure. fourth quarter, they are going to restate their position. they're going to take additional tax provisions, the majority of which are for u.s. tax probes. fourth-quarter loss. brady dougan, brady gets a pay raise even though he missed return on equity. there you go. kingfisher going after another acquisition in europe. this is europe's largest home improvement company. caroline hyde has that story. deutsche bank was just down. you will see a bit more movement

on that credit suisse stock through the day. i will talk to you a little bit more. 1.3766.lar, you have pmi a little later on today. what am i talking about? it is the ecb. back to you. >> manus cranny with the latest on the market. joining us for more is the chief investment officer of rmg wealth management. he helps oversee $100 million of assets. great to have you on the program. give us a sense of china. this seems to me one of the biggest stories today. we have the ecb, the u.s. china is now stimulating the economy. they are starting to realize they could not hit that 7.5% growth target. seen is as we have slowing down much faster than they would have thought. what can they do about it? they had an investment binge the

last six or seven years. stimulus, just trying to keep growth above 7%. >> are these worrying signs? it means they are not sure about that target. before it seemed sure that they were going to hit that 75 -- 7.5% target. >> we have to say they will meet their target. in terms of the underlying story, we are worried that china is one of the bigger risks to global markets today. essentially, a huge credit binge in the last number of years. beginning toel is slow down more rapidly than anyone would have wanted. not a sustainable solution. seeing a few defaults coming in. a lot of wealth management and

trust products maturing and q2, q3. >> give me a sense of what you're doing to your portfolio. if this is a big problem, how do you safeguard yourself? >> we like to avoid defensive type assets. in terms of what could be tightening with the fed. there is a couple of ideas. >> stuart richardson, thank you so much. we will talk a little more about the ecb and some of the financials after we hear from credit suisse this morning. here is a look at what else is coming up. credit suisse doubles down on legal provisions but gives brady dougan a pay rise. just eat makes its debut on the london market. are investors hungry? is amazon taking a seat in your living room? stay with us. we are "on the move" and we are

just getting started. ♪

>> welcome back. i am francine lacqua and london. this is "the pulse" on -- this is "on the move" on bloomberg television.

this is a stock that is on the move. just eat. we just had the price for the ipo set at the higher of the bandwidth. it is gaining some 9.3%. , this is a french company. i am much or if we have the right graph on screen. last sunday checked it was gaining but this was after kingfisher said it was interested in buying. watch out for that stock. credit suisse reported a net loss in the fourth quarter. for more, let's bring in manus cranny with the very latest. you talked about this very issue. >> i did indeed. this is -- some people in the market would say -- progressive in that reddit suites are dealing with the tax probe. it involves 1800 employees, brady dougan sitting in front of the senate committee. when they reported their fourth-quarter results, he said,

we are trying to make progress. >> in general, i think we have made good progress on that front. we have gotten a number of issues resolved. we have one of the larger issues still outstanding. we do feel like we have taken significant reserves during the course of the last couple years and made good progress. also i think our profile in this area is a lot smaller than a number of other banks. it is hard to say. i do think that we are making good progress. reserves, talks about what we are talking about is the tax investigations by my math coming out around $800 million. the fourth quarter gets restated into a loss. he mentioned the mortgage business provisions. that came in at $885 million. that was three or four weeks ago. this could be the year, 2014 is

going to be the year of provisions and cleaning up, finally clearing off some of those big issues. >> are we near the end of provisions? >> how do you benchmark it? you have a peer group at ubs. when they were trying to close off this thorn in their side, they paid $780 million. million so far00 for credit suisse. 52,000 names.r that was the critical issue. what we are dealing with a credit suisse is 22,000 names. we wait to see what happens next. if we are going to benchmark what happened with ubs and credit suisse, we wait to see what the analysts have to say. it looks like it is coming in at the same kind of level as ubs. the ceote all of this, is getting a pretty good pay

rise. >> he is indeed. a 26% pay rise. what is interesting is that he missed his targets. return on equity, the target was around 11%. he had to get the cost income ratio down below 70%. cost income ratio stands around 77% and his return on equity is just below where he wanted it to be at 10%. in terms of that, you can get a pay rise even if you just don't deliver on your benchmarks. 9.7 9 million swiss francs. that is a pay rise of 26%. employee, your bonus ballooned up by 6%. you work for the bank and you got a bonus that went up by 5.6%. hm. >> manus cranny with the latest on credit suisse.

still with us is stuart richardson. in terms of the banks, a lot of investors try to pick up some of the periphery banks. this goes to show what we have from credit suisse, that we are not over with provisions yet. >> they have had the most enormous increase. we heard about 500 billion or more coming into europe from abroad. we have also seen an incredible rally and peripheral bonds. they have huge holdings in their bonds. here, isof going from it a much more simple recovery story? we don't see enough growth in europe to really get the whole banking system or european capital markets generating excess returns. ecb will come to the

rescue and make the banks very wealthy. we will find out more today. is no need for them to do anything quite yet. europe is clearly ok. >> do you see an opportunity in banks? >> we don't see an opportunity in european banks for short-term trading. here, where do we get the next bunch of investors coming in? >> this is across the board. german banks, u.k. banks, swiss banks. >> pretty much. it was always going to be a few potential stories out there. the whole asset quality review for banks that appear to be undervalued. we think the banks which have done reasonably well in the last , the easy money has been made. >> thank you so much. looking forward to the ecb policy decision today. president draghi is under pressure.

it depends on whether they start doing qe anytime soon. david tweed joins us with the very latest. what are we expecting from the ecb today? >> with regard to interest rates, 0.25%, 54 of the 57 economists surveyed by bloomberg expect absolutely no change. there is a robust debate out there at the moment. one side of this debate is saying that the ecb simply is not discharging its mandate, that mandate to keep prices below or near 2%. they have been closer to zero since november. the argument comes down to that latest figure, 0.5% for inflation. one side arguing that this is an anomaly for several reasons including the fact that you are seeing core prices rising. if you strip out of that headline number fresh food and

energy, you are left with that. on the other side, you have people saying if you see prices like this declining, then there is going to be concern that inflationary expectations will become unhinged. that is a big risk. we could be entering into a deflationary spiral. this will be important to listen up. the million-dollar question, will the ecb ever really do qe? weidmann, the president of the bundesbank, has sort of opened the door to the possibility of quantitative easing. is, we don'tid want you to be buying sovereign bonds. maybe you can be buying private assets. that is one thing they could potentially do. the second thing jens weidmann has given his attention to is the possibility of negative interest rates.

that could actually help bring down the euro. these are two areas that jens weidmann seems to be moving towards, helping mario draghi build a consensus. not many people are expecting him to act this meeting. that is why it is so controversial. >> thank you, david tweed. very quick comment on the ecb, you were saying that basically banks' growth depends on what the ecb does. are you expecting anything from mario draghi in the next couple of weeks? >> no, it is either the current -- we thinklation that he will pass on the opportunity today to do anything extraordinary. we should see a pickup in inflation next month. june he will give updates on projections. we think the earliest move is probably q3.

it seems like they are moving that way. i think the problem, europe does suffer from more disinflation than the other major economies. we do have this sort of disinflationary force coming out of asia whether it be the japanese currency, china where there may be deflation and they have weakened their currency as well. one area which is at risk of disinflation is europe. at some point, they may well have to do something to try and kickstart things. >> and keep the euro lower. thank you so much for all that, stewart richardson. onto another top story, london still hungry for listings. today, online takeaway service just eat again trading. manus cranny is here to give us the breakdown. what will people be buying? >> a little bit of technology. they are buying into 36,000

restaurants that are signed up with these guys at just eat. it is a barnstormer of an opening. the institutions are the only people able to trade right now. it is all conditional trading. the stock flying, up 10% on the opening. nearly 14 million shares changed hands in the first eight minutes. what you are getting your hands on is a company that i suppose takes advantage of the fact that we are lazy. we have a generation that don't know how to cook. we sit in front of our tvs. you generally have a samsung or ipad in front of you. you fancy order thing -- ordering something locally. they are absolutely on the mark. >> what is not to like? coming up, amazon fire tv debuts. will the spark catch with users? we find out after the break. ♪

>> welcome back to "on the move ." i am francine lacqua in london. amazon launches fire tv, the most anticipated that top vox. apple -- the battle is with apple and recoup and pay-tv operators. here with more is caroline hyde. what does the fire tv actually offer? >> it offers you for amazon the

way to make you an addict. ,ou can get fire amazon fire tv up to 15,000 movies and tv shows, as long as you look into their prime instant video. they want you to get onto their plan for99 per month content that they have spent big on. they have exclusive rights to downtown addy, the new river street series. this is what they want to upgrade you on. you get netflix, hulu, more than 100 games. family-friendly games they seem to be. certainly they want to woo you onto that. the big one is to get you onto amazon prime. to buy all your products from amazon. they are trying to beat out the competition such as apple tv. really screams. i can't wait for you guys to try it out. tvyou add it all up, fire

has three times the performance and power of apple tv, roku, chromecast. this is a powerful device. for $99, you get a fire tv. with that, you get more power, content and more than 100 games. >> pretty incredible. who is this really going to hurt, apple or roku? >> both. that is what everyone is going to be worried about. the smart tv makers. roku, apple, they are at a similar price point. you have cheaper versions out by google. chromecast offered for $35. a streaming stick from roku. the interesting thing is, how much will this hurt cable operators? b-sky-b, comcast, verizon, will we just want all of our tv to be streamed? that is the big question.

already apple is doing a deal with comcast. is that the future? >> it is worth a lot of money. thank you, caroline hyde. as we had to break, we will have full coverage of the ecb's latest policy decision later on. that is what we will be talking after the break. ♪

>> welcome back to "on the move ." i am francine lacqua at bloomberg's european headquarters in london. we are 30 minutes into the trading day. this is a picture for the overall market. little changed. the ecb'sawaiting interest rate decision. we have a couple moves in terms of our print. let's dig deeper. caroline hyde is at the touchscreen. >> journalists love nothing more than a pond. we can go wild with just eat. appetite, that lowering the

shares, whatever you want to say. shares are rising. up 5.2%. this is a company valued at 1.5 billion pounds. kingfisher also just gaining up about 1%. it is all about home improvement. m&a in the air. they may be buying a french company, mr. bricolage. they're offering an 11% premium. renkaat, this is a tiremaker heavily exposed to russia. they say russia will drag them down. shares off by almost 5% at the moment. they're operating profit and sales will fall this year because of russian weakness in the ruble and general weakness in the market. >> thank you so much, caroline hyde with the latest market movers. these are the bloomberg top headlines. asian stocks rose after china announced its stimulus policy.

the nation's capital meant will sell $24 billion worth of bonds to fund railways and housing. the stimulus includes bigger tax breaks for small businesses. there is a new warning from the imf managing director, christine lagarde. russia's standoff with the u.s. and europe over ukraine poses a threat to the global economy. is for the program with ukraine to work. we hope that geopolitical tensions go away so that that country and its people can recover. boosted chiefse executive brady dougan's pay 26% last year. this as the bank missed targets on return on equity and cost to income ratios which are used to determine the majority of dougan 's bonus.

it is decision day for mario draghi. for a preview of what the market impact could be, i am now joined marketcohead of global research at goldman sachs. welcome to the program. always great to have your thoughts. give me a sense of what you are expecting for the ecb. >> first of all, why should they ease today? i think the market is pretty mixed on this opportunity. of --st unsettling part the most unsettling development has been the fact that the expectations for future inflation have been falling. if you look at the five-year forward rate, that is down to 2% which is their target. it has been falling about 40 basis points. they published forecasts

recently showing that inflation is going to be below their target for the next couple of years. in people's minds, this is that we are set for a low period of inflation. that the ecb is tolerating that is becoming more ingrained. this poses a threat. >> this is what the imf was talking about a couple days ago. the risk. ion beingabout lowflat just as risky as disinflation. and we have a high euro. why not act now? >> i think because they have theusted in a way conventional grounds. the policies that could perhaps make a difference there would be either cutting rates to negative, the deposit rate which is basically the room in a ration for holding i'll cash -- idle cash. it could have nonlinear effects.

stuff that we don't know because we can't test such occurrences. the other option would be to do qe. >> francesco, it seems when you look at euro/dollar, traders have even stopped believing mario draghi when he says, i will do everything it takes. how important is that effect? >> you have to wait that against what happens domestically. the eurozone is a big currency area. it trades a lot within itself. europeans,l-being of what happens inside the area is just as important as what happens outside. we have seen a very sharp improvement in financial conditions because credit has been rallying, banks have been rallying. you have that in japan as well. is low interest rates, so people do chase yields or stuff that is undervalued. we are seeing so far little new lending occurring.

probably what the ecb needs to focus on. ahead of thel asset quality review. banks are deciding, i am not going to lend before september because i am under watch. >> absolutely. we saw a little glimpse of that at the quarter end. banks don't like to be photographed with too big bounce sheets. -- balance sheets. we will see more as we go through the asset quality review and stress test. could get ahead of the curve. what we had in mind is that they could buy asset-backed securities against sme loans. that would precipitate cash into banks' balance sheets and help the recovery that way. >> this is something that we have talked about in the past.

be the mostbably effective way of injecting that little bit more into the economy. >> i must agree. of all the measures they have in front of them, probably going withe way and doing it assets on their balance sheets in the form of abs is probably the most effective way. >> talk to me about the outside of europe. we talked about europe, the challenges in europe. it seems stable. at the same time, the u.s., china, these are -- i would say there is one big unknown which is china. we don't know what we are looking about the effect of the weather. >> the weather has been studied more carefully in the united states. we have an estimate, around half of the deceleration we saw between the second half of 13 and the first quarter of 14 is due to weather affects. the other half, maybe due to overstocking. which occurred in the last

period of 13. as we go into the spring and look outside, we would hope me april, may, we would see a bounce in economic activity. china has been growing very softly in the first quarter. 5% at best is there first trading estimate. they have a target of 7.5%. i think that must be read in that way. >> are the markets too complacent? is there something that nags you, that says we are taking this too lightly? the markets are very placid. unsettlingthe most part of the way financial markets are now pricing things is really at the front end of the yield curve in the united states. i think there is -- the fed has

locked itself into tapering. nobody expects them to do anything this year. yellen has talked about six months after the end of tapering. that takes us a year away. whether something changes during the course of this year and they need to tighten a little bit earlier, that could be a source of volatility. obviously, geopolitics. that is so difficult to get to the bottom of. anything in the u.k. that concerns you? >> a lot of the growth this year is predicated on cap-ex picking up. the position on the u.k. vis-a-vis the eurozone, the european union is a source of concern. the scottish referendum as well. you question whether this cap-ex is going to come through or not. i think policy here is much more

-- has more degrees of freedom. even carney's new forward guidance leaves him a lot of leeway to do different things. >> they are in charge. they don't have to negotiate with other banks. francesco, thank you so much. coming up on the program, investing in energy has gotten a lot more complicated because of rising political tensions. impact joinsvoir us after the break to sort it all out. ♪

>> welcome back to "on the move ." i am francine lacqua here in london. it has already revolutionized the u.s. energy market. now fracking is coming to britain. tom gibson reports. >> stretching 2.5 commenters deep, this rig could change britain's landscape in more ways than one. operated by i guess, it is g the shale rock for natural gas. it is not alone. quadriller is on the front too. the former bp ceo. >> shale gas in the u.k. will make a big difference to the

u.k. energy picture but it will not prevent the importation of natural gas from other parts of the world. it will reduce the balance of payments or add a new source of growth to the u.k. and produce lots of jobs. >> the shale in northwest england is one area that has caught his eye. fracking sites have also attracted the attention of others. local residents have made their feelings clear. protesting against damage to the landscape. they have tried to delay the project. this resistance isn't just about natural beauty. they are worried about their health and damage to agriculture. andrew pemberton owns 130 gary callis and is worried -- dairy cows and is worried the fracking will contaminate them. >> it is connecting man-made ditches and this is where it goes. i am very conscious of the fact.

i am going to get it. if anything goes in that waterway, i will get it. >> supporters of fracking reject the claim. >> the protection comes down to well integrity. review,subject to peer independent well examination. in terms of protection, there are regulators and practice which supports that it is being done safely. >> with shale abundant on every continent, and conventional sources becoming harder to extract, there is little chance it will remain untouched. >> you can read the full story of john browne in the latest edition of bloomberg markets magazine. the stage is shifting for energy markets. europe and america are joining forces to cut reliance on russian fuel. the road ahead could be long and

it could be bumpy. for more, we are joined by nansen saleri, chief executive of quantum reservoir impact. great to have you on the program. how concerned are you that we are going to see a spike in oil prices? >> good morning, francine. that is an excellent question. as far as the spike in oil prices, my view is that oil prices are relatively insensitive because the global markets are much better supplied today than say compared to a few years ago. i do not foresee any significant shift in the price of oil. the markets are concerning. absent a major crisis developing and 88 ing from the current situation surrounding ukraine and romeo, if you look at the

gas prices, this is a different situation. >> i guess the other question, i guess, are prices going to be stable? we have concerns about china. we don't know at what point it will stop growing. stimulusthis mini package being put in. are you concerned that we are going to see a lot of fluctuation in the price of oil coming from emerging market demand? >> not at all. , my opinionlatility is that the world energy markets are primarily on the crude side of the business, are far more stable. the markets are very well balanced between supply and demand. there is some significant factors on the supply side that are stabilizing the market. u.s.,are number one, the

the resurgence in u.s. production. the u.s. today is producing about 22 million barrels of oil on a daily basis. it has captured the number one spot globally. the other factor which is very important is iraq. they are certainly stabilizing factors on the crude market. by extension, on the energy market in general. give me a sense of where you expect production to go. this is one of the big unknowns. it is very high. as we get into the summer is there a danger that saudi oil production will have to go even higher? what will that mean for prices? >> not really. that is where i probably disagree with many of the expert opinions. i see saudi production as being

one of the stable corners in the crude supply market. i see them producing at the 10 million level. they are exporting about 7.5 million barrels. i do not expect any significant deviations in their desire to maintain those levels. certainly as far as the ability to sustain. among all the countries, i would say saudi's are very capable of maintaining their production. if the question is, are they going to increase their production to 11 million barrels or full capacity which is 12.5 million, these are different questions. there are quite a number of geopolitical components coming. it is a question of market supply and demand. right now the markets are very well balanced between the demand and supply.

stabilizing allies to saudi arabia are the u.s. and iraq. now with the sanctions easing on iran, iran is also becoming a player. it is definitely helping on the stability side in the crude market. >> thank you so much for joining us, nansen saleri, ceo at quantum reservoir impact joining us from istanbul. "the pulse" is coming up in less than 15 minutes. i am joined by guy johnson. we have a pretty packed show. we are talking tech, ecb. >> the story surrounding the ecb, draghi versus deflation is the big debate here in the eurozone. what are we going to see today? the book of economists we have been surveying expect no change. the pressure is certainly mounting. christine lagarde at the imf

piling on the pressure. are we going to get any change? we are going to debate that. we are going to get all the angles covered. we have some great guests coming up. christian scholz is joining us from baron berg. we have ricardo joining us from mizuho. we will be carrying on the conversation in the second hour as well. then we will segue into the tech story. so much news over the last 24 hours. microsoft, amazon, how does the affect theuncement cable story that we are seeing in europe? this consolidation play? these guys want to go over the top. we will talk about all of this. back to you. >> i bet it means trouble. we will dig deeper into that. guy johnson with "the pulse" in about nine minutes. coming up, we look at a

superhero success that will make you marvel. ♪

>> welcome back. marvel studios latest film, captain america, opens tomorrow. expectations for its weekend take are running north of $18 million. the secret to marvel's success, four ingredients.

sam grobart reports. opens onaptain america 4, it willril fo be marvel's fourth movie in six years. how do they do it? here are four he's to marvel's success. stick to the comics. for years, hollywood screenwriters tried to redo marvel's ironman origin story because they thought the one in the comic books didn't quite work. marvel said, no. let's just do that and ironman grossed $585 million in its first year. the company has tried to stay faithful to the comic books ever since. don't cast megastars. chris tends worth was a relative unknown when he was cast to play thor. sequel made thor

$640 million. his celebrity didn't overshadow the character and marvel didn't have to pay him a ton of money for either movie. it takes a universe. years ago, marvel sold the rights to spiderman two sony for a pittance which the company now knows which was a huge mistake. marvel has a universe of more than 5000 characters with storylines like ironman and thor that can weave in and out of each other culminating in a moment -- a megaproject like the avengers. finally, never forget the sequels. you might think marvel would have moved captain america's origin story to the present day but the studio took the long view. the character would start in the past and then be brought into the present, giving him enough fish out of water angst. madeirst captain america $370 million. the sequel is on track to do even better.

>> stay with bloomberg tv. guy johnson and i are back with "the pulse." it is decision day at the ecb. we will today draghi's next step. ♪

>> will super mario surprise the markets? >> acting to support the economy. >> half $1 billion in the one quarter. news is fueling capital concerns across the industry. ♪