will they deliver? will they underwhelm? yellen part of the dashboard. five elements will be delivered today. taking a little bit of money off the table. why get caught in the wrong direction of a bluff? onsomeone always gets caught the other side. you are watching ukraine. >> it is a two-horse race. ukraine's willy wonka and she is the princess lady. you have seen her hairstyle. forgive me. obviously, they have their work cut out for them. the gas price again, second time in a week for ukraine. ukraine accusing them of terrorism. will keep track of that throughout the program. caroline, you are watching

michael kors. >> the chief executive is so ambitious, saying that they are selling out of product and stealing market share. snatching away market share, opening up more stores. there are others who also want across the atlantic and come to europe. europe is the one key battleground. it makes up one third of all luxury sales. >> fascinating story. we will go through the luxury stocks shortly. we are watching jobs, ukraine, what else are we watching? >> france saying that growth in the first quarter would be .1%. it would pick up in the second quarter. construction is going to weigh on the market. inflation is going to return to france.

i think we deliberated, the u.s. is just off record highs. emerging markets have had the longest winning streak since over a year ago. that will be the real ton elegy for markets. it will be a little bit about the german manufacturing data as well. if these markets can sustain the green on the opening and through the session, through to the unemployment numbers, that will be rather heartening. some companies that are in focus, vivendi, a board meeting to make a decision about who they will do a deal with for their telecom subsidiary. we will wait to see what the board says. tesco is down .6% in a rising market, it should be added. why? their financial director may leave as early as next week. down .5%. when it comes to budget airlines

, probably the branding for easyjet might well change. tickets,lexible allocated seating, everything that ryanair wants. it is rising. passenger traffic rises by nearly five percent in march as ryanair sees a 4% drop. even though they carried record number of passengers. those are three companies that are worth focusing on. i cover the european central bank yesterday. you can see that little moment -- a couple of moments during that discussion by mario draghi. one was the anonymity on the european central bank. they have not finished using measures. quantitative easing is on the table. negative rates are on the table. the shape and form of the quantitative easing is a lot different.

1.3702 is where we are. will the overall trajectory continue? let's have a look at the dollar-yen. just off a 10-week high. rising for three straight weeks. it will be about what happened with the nonfarm payrolls. unemployment rate will dictate the pace of change in dollar-yen and euro-dollar. quick thank you so much. joining us for more on the markets is the chief investment investmentccla management. great to have you on the program, as always. we have a couple of earnings, a couple of corporate stories. what is the biggest risk in the market? >> u.s. jobs are clearly important. -- 200,000 thousand is way too high. i think 180,000 is more likely. one suspects the unemployment

number will come in at about 6.6%. average earnings will only be rising around 10 basis points. that is obviously very important. >> are we going to see a correction? we talk about biotech and technology stocks. is that something you are worried about? >> i worry about valuations in the market. valuations are still attractively-placed. equities are attractive in value terms. the premium that a lot of people seem to forget about looks to me very elevated. over five percentage points. >> what about europe? putting a stand to actually do something. >> i am sure you will do something in the next few months. >> is it too late? >> i do not think so. i see excellent opportunities in europe. talking about luxury, i see

prada as a company whose price tag should be a lot higher. it has had three years of compound growth in difficult macroeconomic conditions. i think it is capable of another three years of double-digit growth. that suggests that we should be seeing a much higher share price. >> as long as we do not have deflation. >> the question is, where does it come from? it is clear that the european central bank is taking the deflation risks seriously. i am sure they will act in the next couple of months with real policy initiatives. what happens to luxury goods in a world of deflation? there are plenty of opportunities for luxury goods to prosper. >> we had a story today about a lot of the young american buyers taking the good g -- the guccis and pradas by storm.

it is almost cannibalization. >> how much is the cake growing and who gets what size of the cake? we are seeing the emergence of a middle-class, perhaps spending more. a lot more spending in europe as lifestyles he didn't to change. i think companies like product prada, they are capable of having a larger slice of the cake as well. >> european valuations, still china. >> they run ahead of themselves in terms of building expensive infrastructure. we have not seen a man's -- and expansion program. quick thank you so much for that. james bevan, who clearly likes product -- likes prada. a hint of qe. draghi opens the door to easy be

-- to easing. concernsr weather fading away. is taking onors europe's fashion houses. ♪

>> welcome back. i am francine lacqua here in london. this is "on the move" on television, radio, streaming on

your tablet, your phone, and bloomberg.com. this is a company we are watching. it is gaining some 5.3%. this is after it appeared on an m&a watchlist. they had a story saying that they would be wise to consider it. has not been confirmed at the moment, just speculation. it certainly sent the share price higher. of course, it is jobs day in the u.s. one of the most important pieces of economic data in the world. manus cranny joins us to look ahead. some of the data going into has beenbers supported. >> u.n. james just finished having a conversation, saying that the market is a little bit toppy. but the backdrop is strong. that is undeniable. that is where i challenge james

ever so slightly. auto sales are the highest since 2007. the trade data was not splendid. exports in latin america declined slightly. there is a willingness to hire. bmw putting in $1 billion in terms of their plant in north carolina. the longer-term trend in terms of firings or jobless claims, it is beginning to base out. one of the things i would say to you is we are going to own this space today at bloomberg. have a look at some of the use.ags we are going to very american, the one in the middle. we are going to be all over the jobs report. television, radio, and online. dashboardellen uses a . how will the jobs numbers add to the discussion? >> today is important because it

is five pieces. --ant to put this in contact in context. payrolls,s, employment, long-term unemployment. two thirds of the labor market indicators are recording worse than we were before the recession. this suiten extent, of data along with the information on april 8 substantiates her view of considerable slack for some time. it is the long-term unemployment rate that will perhaps be the most important today from the headlines. are over unemployed one third of the people who have been unemployed for more than 26 weeks. that is twice the long-term unemployment rate that we saw pre-recession. i think it might well be a good number. we will see what it is. the backdrop has been strong

going into the markets, just pulling a little bit off the table at the moment. >> thank you very much. dennis cranny with the latest on the u.s. jobs data. still with us is james bevan. bit abouta little different companies. tell us some of the stock picks that you like. what is your take on remi cointreau? >> i think it is an excellent quality company. my issue is the price you have to pay to take the brand of that scale. how much value can you add? these companies have done extremely well to manage the name. extract cost and drive revenue is much more limited. is a companyageo with enormous brand management strength. i am quite nervous of how much more these companies can deliver in the near-term and would much rather brought -- rather buy a

correction later in the year. >> quantitative easing is coming to an end. &alittle bit about capex and m i timidly. is it too dangerous to stock pick companies that may be part of m&a activity? >> absolutely not. m&a that, the sort of people used to be wary about will be that driven by financial gearing. we saw a lot of that in the charge of private equity in the lead up to the global financial crisis. all that money needed to be deployed to companies with much more leverage and risk. many of those cases then become unwound. the other issue is whether there are improvements available to companies through operational gearing. really important parts of growing shareholder value. >> thank you for your time and analysis today.

on the forces shaping the global economy, i will speak to a former ecb board member. from the shores of lake,. talk to me about the biggest risk that you see the world economy facing. >> well, the economy is recovering. we have many uncertainties. china and asia is one. emerging markets and the european recovery, which is very fragile. main geopolitical , creatinge to europe uncertainty. to some extent, it is favoring europe because capital is flowing back to europe. it is keeping the euro extreme very high.hange rate

>> i was going to ask you about the exchange rate. we are almost in a japan-like situation. the inflation coupled with a high euro. coupled with a high euro. >> deflation may be the big word. it is really negative and we are not seeing that and we probably will not see that. process hasging made it more complicated. real interest rates are too high. you need to combat low inflation, which is not consistent with price stability. requires some further action to avoid the inflation rate staying too low compared to 2%. >> what is your take on what we heard from the ecb yesterday? to go ahead?good do you think they will have the

support that they need? what kind of qe might we see in europe? >> yesterday, mario draghi prepared the markets for qe to happen. tohink you need some time create it with the boards and the council. it might take another meeting or two. a decision by consensus is much more effective on the market than one with a split majority. thoughts, it is probably worth it to wait one or two months to be sure that they are showing the need for qe. but the markets are prepared. >> you think this will happen. i know it is difficult to talk about probabilities, but is this nce that the ecb has

everything under control or do you think it is a 70-30 chance? what risks are we facing? the equity markets are so pumped with liquidity, they are not weighing the real risks out there. >> clearly, the situation is very fragile. he has said that several times. inflation is not in line with price stability. there are many elements of risk and the enthusiasm by the markets is predicated by the ecb acting. act, i thinkes not there will be huge disappointment in the markets. to some extent, the situation has been created for the ecb to act in a way that would not surprise anybody. and would make this decision more natural and accepted by the people. >> how concerned are you about china? course, you are italian and

very prominent in the italian landscape. we talk about china as if it was something a little bit far away. optimism in the markets is maybe not pricing in a much harsher than we are that -- currently evaluating. >> china has been able to reduce the rate of growth of the economy, which was unsustainable. they have huge resources so they can manage in the short term. there are more fundamental .tructural issues maybe not for the next couple of years, but the issue of loans rebalancing the economy requires more than the use of the resources that they certainly have. i am not concerned for the next year or two, but there are fundamental issues down the road. if the euro area and the u.s. two years from now have recovered more strongly, then we

can afford a slowdown in china which is sharper than we think. that is why we need these two years to strengthen the recovery on both sides of the planet. >> you seem optimistic overall about europe or the ability of qe and getet to everything on board. we need to make sure that the u.s. and europe grow. how worried are you about geopolitical shocks? i am trying to understand what it will take for the very fragile recovery in europe to be offbeat. turnaroundks that the economy are never forecasted. they are always unexpected. in the end, even the way in crisis hasrimean been managed has ultimately led capital to flow back to europe, which suggests that investors

ultimately think that europe is much more safe than they thought a couple of years ago. , how long confidence this confidence will last will depend on a couple of issues. one is the ability of countries to continue to reform. italy and france are key. if reform is not taking place in italy and france, unemployment there may be down, social unrest and more difficulty. the second is monetary policy. in order for the economy to recover and support the reforms, you need lower interest rates in some countries. interest rates are too high and the euro is too high. if these new policies are implemented, i think that we can be more confident that the euro area will pick up and follow the u.s. recovery. confident that the u.s. is in a recovery. the markets have priced in the

fact that a taper or kiwi -- or likely go away and we will see an interest rate rise as early as next year. >> if there is an interest rate rise, it means the economy is doing well, better than expected. you have to look through the day by day and week by week volatility. overall, one year ago, there was a big announcement about tapering and the markets reacted badly, but they absorbed it. you cannot judge monetary policy decisions on a daily basis. we know that the u.s. recovery might not be as strong as we hope and thought because you ,ave the deleveraging process many issues related to the adjustment. it is gradual,, it is broad-based.

withst needs support monetary policy. >> thank you very much for your time today. we are back in two. ♪

>> welcome back to "on the move ". three quick stocks on the move. 50% of their revenue comes from food. do not worry about the margin.

easyjet, the number of people carried is up. tesco, will the financial director go as early as next week? back very shortly. ♪

>> welcome back to "on the move ". i am francine lacqua at bloomberg european headquarters in london. let's see how things are shaping up. this is the picture overall for the markets. today is jobs day in the u.s., so watch out for that. holdingar has been gains. , i guess, makeus or break the trading day. these are the currencies. au can see the dollar nearing

10-week high against the yen. watch out for fx. these are the bloomberg top headlines. nigeria may overtake south africa as the continent's biggest economy when they publish new data this weekend. the size of nigeria's economy maybe be boosted by nearly 60%. >> i have been traveling to africa quite a lot. i have been in nigeria more than any other part of the world other than the u.s. over the past 12 months. i do not know if that is a leading or lagging indicator or what. >> u.s. defense secretary chuck hagel says stationing a permanent army brigade in europe is among options on the continent. this as russian troops remain along ukraine's border.

>> there are troops that are moving around. we know that. no indication of any significant movement of those large troop deployments along the border away from the border. >> and picking up the pace of hiring for the third straight month. payrolls will be announced in just a few hours. that all-important u.s. jobs number, stephen, welcome to the program. talk to me about the importance of u.s. jobs. it is very important data, but just one of many that make up the puzzle. do you expect the trend of growth to continue? >> we have had a quarter where growth has been depressed, largely by the weather. when we look at economic models, we are now meteorologists.

snowfall in minneapolis yesterday. i am confident that summer will be alive -- will arrive. spring will be here shortly. we have 600,000 people who could not get to work because of the weather. that is 300 more than normal. will it be in today's figures? who knows? if not, it should be in the next month's figures. if not, definitely the one after. i am confident that we will get a humdinger of a payroll number sometime in the next three months. hopefully today. >> it is because of the weather. this is not imbalances in the recovery in the u.s. >> there are fewer imbalances to the recovery of the united states than any recovery i have seen in a long time, including the 1/8 you years ago. he financial healing is quite extraordinary in the united states. i do not worry about that. i worry about the fact that 600,000 people cannot get to

work because of incredible weather. there has been a bit of noise. is, the u.s. economy is picking up. unemployment is falling and wages are going up. what is not to like about that? >> talk to me about when qe will actually start. does this help or hinder the economy? some say this makes people panic a little bit. at the same time, it could boost becauseital spending people want to get in before interest rates start rising. >> saying it is good for the market is taking it a bit too far. we do not care about tapering anymore. nobody mentions that. >> it is all priced in. >> you cannot be forced down again. that is done. it has had its effect and benefit. they are probably not going to reverse qe. well, youe rise,

cannot forecast economic data next month, but if you want my date for rate rise, it is this time next year. >> gradually and slowly? do they start moving the fed target to 25 basis points or 50 basis points, which i think is the better thing to do? they willnk definitely not going to do is the quarter and quarter plan. that caused all kinds of problems. not the least of which, it contributed to the subprime crisis. i think it will be a move to .5% and they might get to 1% reasonably quickly. >> this is a scenario where everything is smooth. how does china play into this? let's say a hard landing is five percent or six percent. does it stop the recovery in the u.s.?

>> it will not be good news. there are good and bad things when china slows. they are a voracious consumer of commodities. the united states is becoming a bit of an energy producer again. it is a double-edged sword. i do not think that china is a risk for the united states. it is certainly a risk for countries in the region. i do not think the u.s. is a risk from that. europe is much more important than the united states, both directly and indirectly. the ecb have given some positive signals. more than likely, it is ready set that-- pretty much rates are going to rise and sooner than the market thinks. itwe get increases in jobs, will be important. also, the number of people who could not get to work because of the weather, we will look at that. it will take time to adjust this.

at some point, we will get the kick back and rates are going to rise. >> thank you for all of that analysis. now onto one of our other top stories. last day to register if you want to run in ukraine's presidential elections. ryan chilcote joins us for a breakdown of the candidates. who is looking likely to win the race? >> there are 12 candidates, but it is looking like a two horse race. you have the chocolate billionaire. he is the front runner if the polls happened today. get almostted to half of the electorate voting for him. the other candidate is yulia timoshenko. better known than her counterpart in the west, if for no other reason than her princess leia haircut. she was released from prison on

the very same day that viktor yanukovych, the last president of the ukraine, was ousted. how did she get there? well, she was convicted of doing a bad deal that ran counter to the national interests of the ukraine. her supporters, the eu, also say that those were trumped up charges to punish her for her opposition to ukraine. she has been street credit with the protesters. 11% of the electorate say they would vote for her. there is some reason why they do not think she is the right person for the job right now. >> let's focus on the front runner. what do we know about him? >> a self-made billionaire. he first of the billionaires to join the protest, running contrary to the image of an oligarch being close with power. he runs a chocolate plant, really a giant in the former

soviet union for making chocolate. he has suffered in the conflict. he had a factory in crimea and he has now lost. he is a persona non grata there. just outsidetory of moscow that police have seized and they are looking into criminal doings. ukrainians really seem to support him and think that, despite those problems, he is someone who could deal with vladimir putin, which is important considering the issues example,ave, for pressure hiking up the price for ukrainian gas a second time in the last week. and the arrest of 25 ukrainians in russia on charges of terrorism. he is looking like a strong favorite. however, you have got to keep in are, with this race, there a bunch of candidates. versusot the pro-western pro-russian. the darthxception of

vader candidate. he says that if they vote for him, he will take ukraine to the dark side. >> thank you very much. we will have more on this story. coming up, closing the deal. could the bidding war be nearing the end? details next. ♪

>> welcome back. i am francine lacqua here in london. this is "on the move" on bloomberg television and streaming live on bloomberg.com, your tablet, your phone, and any windows phone as well. two years ago, michael cores was little known in europe. stores started popping up in high-profile locations and stealing market share from its bigger rivals. here with more is our european business correspondent, caroline hyde. this is a growth trend of u.s. retailers taking europe i storm. >> it is not just michael cores, --kors, but michael cores kors seems to be the standout performer in terms of growth. like for like sales up 28%.

that is more than double wear burberry was. came second in the list of who did well in luxury. you have got to remember, growing from a small base, $3 billion is where we are thinking this year's sales will be. that is just 10% of lvmh, but is chief is negative ambitious and feeling confident. he said he is stealing market share from the likes of louis , those european big houses that have been here for the last 50 years. he is stealing market share. be 100er is he going to stores in europe, it is going to be 200. i think it walks a very fine line of luxury but at a good price point. at the moment, things are relatively cheap -- when you look at their watches or their -ags, they are about 300 euros

1000 euros. compare that to gucci or louis vuitton, which are about 1000-2000. they are copying some clever tricks that many of these older, grander european houses played in the past. catwalks,nd, runway but products cheaper. i wear a michael cores watch. what did it cost me? 200 pounds. guess -- >> i guess the european ones want to position themselves at the very high-end. >> we are seeing gucci scaling back, louis vuitton scaling back. they are trying to reduce their logos and taking away retail space. they became too popular for their own good. michael kors is pushing, trying to expand. they are managing to fill that open space, the void that has

been left in terms of a price point. the luxury houses such as mulberry and gucci are very expensive. they can fill that middle ground. we are seeing a tactic deployed by the luxury houses. the question is, michael kors, will they be a victim of its own success? alarm bells are ringing. remember where burberry was. that check became too popular. it is happening to gucci and louis vuitton right now. they are scaling back on their logos. go scaledee the m.k. lo back as well? we have to make sure that maybe they continue to tread that fine line of luxury meets a cheaper price point, but also does not yet too popular for its own good. >> caroline hyde with the latest on michael kors. the bidding war for ssr might be coming to an end.

the board of vivendi will meet today to decide their fate. what could be today's outcome? >> there are a few potential outcomes that are possible. there is one potential outcome that is the most likely, which ,s that vivendi proves formally owned by a holding company for its it's -- for sfr, mobilephone unit. we could see some other bit of drama, opening the bids back up, an improved bid from bouygues. the vivendi board has a choice. they can draw a line under this process and say we are going to go with them or they can continue this competition, which has benefited vivendi quite a bit, getting quite a bit more value for sfr than anyone

thought they would. >> what happens to the loser? >> either of these companies has big problems if they lose out on sfr. lose, it becomes and also-ran in the french mobile market. it faces huge competition. to think, what do we do to stay ahead of the mobile market? sure they get locked up, they have the problem of being a single player cable asset, just fixed line. that is not very trendy. everyone wants mobile and fixed line. either company, if they lose this bidding, is going to have to make some big strategic decisions. >> what is the future for vivendi without sfr? >> they have said they are going to focus on media and content

assets. they own universal music group, which is known for its record like old -- record label. they have taken the view that content is a better place to be. there are people who disagree with that over the long run. telecoms have had some issues, but they are not going away. that, oddlyoping enough, music and television is where i can make more money. >> thank you for that. matt campbell. lesspulse" is coming up in than 15 minutes. i am joined by guy johnson. we will have rate interviews, a little bit of mna. we will talk about ukraine and have interviews. draghi is blaming the easter bunny for europe's inflation problems or lack of inflation problems. the americans are blaming the weather for lack of a decent

showing in the payrolls number. is it going to be reversed? we will talk about that. on the roubini will be program. it will be interesting to hear what he has to say on that subject. theill continue conversation surrounding the luxury story. it is going to be fascinating to european luxury stocks respond to the american invasion that is coming up. not just some of the big names we have been talking about, like tory burch, trying to make their presence felt. we are going to talk about that. the story surrounding politics in ukraine is fascinating and we will be debating who the people are who could be leading this country out of crisis. one of them some people refer to as the willy wonka of the ukraine. we are going to be talking chocolate and ukraine. we do not do that very often. back to you. >> looking forward to that. thank you so much. "the pulse" in about 10 minutes

from now. here are some companies on the move. will fold its london whale investment office into another unit. a 6.2 billion dollars trading loss in 2012. the global chief investment officer and treasurer will lead the new group. a game console and china after the nation lifted a 14-year ban on this device. this would challenge competitors including microsoft and sony. it is compatible with mobile bees for -- and they can played on any tv. google is suspending sales of smoke alarms after it determined the units could be switched off unintentionally. the malfunction was revealed in a lab test. they are not aware of any customers who have -- who have experienced this problem.

for more thannest $3 million in february. stay with "on the move". ♪

>> welcome back to "on the move ". i am francine lacqua here in london. we have been speaking to some of the biggest names in economics. mass cranny, to be at that

workshop. >> and to be lakeside. that and the druggie conversation yesterday -- the i conversation earlier. you have two major banks, the fed, and ecb. increasinglys fromg how the exit monetary policy that has been in whereas, in europe, you have this growing battle against deflation. the germans are prepared to take it more seriously, i guess. man to hold a bag. i think he summed it up beautifully. we will have a little bit more inflation. wait for that. >> i spoke to the former ecb board member and he says the markets are not ready for qe in europe.

danger of deflation and one or two shots away from the danger. >> i would expect it will gradually appreciate relative to the euro and the yen because of differential growth rates and differential monetary policy. the fed exiting while the boj is doing more and eventually the ecb doing more. main worry is china, but he is still worried about deflation. it becoming a japan-like situation. to go downthe euro very gradually and slowly. >> that is interesting. at the start of the interview, he said he was not sure whether china is slowing down or the issue is just running away from them. bottom line, the germans need to get on board. qe seems to be priced in. >> thank you so much. one of our top stories of the day. stay with bloomberg tv.

guy johnson and i are back with "the pulse" next. we will bring you our exclusive conversation with nouriel roubini. in the meantime, you can follow us on twitter. ♪

>> warming up. the pace of hiring in the u.s. is expected to pick up as the harsh winter weather fades. conquers europe. why the u.s. designer is beating france in their own backyard. >> and nouriel roubini tells us europe is just one or two shots away from deflation. welcome to "the pulse". we are live from bloomberg's european headquarters in london. i am guy johnson. rex and i am francine lacqua.