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tv   On the Move  Bloomberg  April 17, 2014 3:00am-4:01am EDT

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of google earnings. >> there was nervousness, wasn't there? live up to not quite expectations. it is all about mobile. there are still plenty -- they're still selling plenty of advertising. larry page is not managing to charge as much. is eventually, mobile advertising will cost the same, if not more, than desk top. you get so much more information about a person. acrossill have a read for all of the european companies that may be affected by the slowdown. eibo --ugh -- wav want to have an ipo
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in the u.s. and go public now? stocks over there have been getting hammered. expect a big drop -- a big pop on the first day. that peoplest mean are more interested in the longer term. in terms of what you are watching? >> down six percent, the second time in as many months. we have major problems with their operating, profits dropping 35%. organic sales dropped. the trend is not going to improve. you have this anticorruption movement on the way. bigeo north america is a
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drop for them. asia-pacific, down 19% in terms of their delivery. issue in terms of how to grow the business. 4.2%.geo down let's cross over to berlin. we have some key meetings for russia and ukraine today. >> talks get underway between the four parties in about an hour. the first thing the u.s. wants to establish is whether russia is serious in terms of wanting to have a diplomatic engagement. thee will be talks about constitution. all parties will agree the constitution can change, but they will not agree to russian demands that if her region wants to secede, it can. >> thank you.
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we will be watching that meeting closely. we're also watching a lot of stocks off the back of rapport report -- off of the back of a report that european car sales rose. we had janet yellen yesterday. we are watching a couple of corporate and we're watching ukraine and russia. >> you did not leave me much. go back and look at bloomberg.com and look at the bill mcdermott interview. -- thisd the similarity could be what the year 2000 was intact. -- in cap. -- tech. china might be reducing the
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reserve requirement. we will take a little bit of gas out of these markets. if you've are going to be out of action for four days, how much risk would you want to leave on the proverbial table? shift inof an historic .lobal geopolitical relations how much risk would you want to leave on the table if you are an active trader? the fed willsays stay fully engaged in lower rates potentially up to two years. inflation and jobs are nowhere near where i want them to be for the federal reserve targets. i call that the yellen express. bill mcdermott called this year not dissimilar to that of the year 2000. the s&p down three percent.
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rebalancing or cannibalizing? cannibalizing the current business, software systems. that is the big debate in germany. , couple of other companies diageo down three percent. asia-pacific sales down 19%. china spent $71 billion on booze. sap down 3.6%. cognac.ese ain't buying when you stop buying premium liquor, will you ever go back? >> that is the trillion dollar question. joining us now is the global head of equity derivatives
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strategy at bnp paribas. talk to us about your main concerns. we talk about a china slowdown. we talk about what janet yellen is going to do. , we aren escalation nearing a possible escalation between ukraine and russia. -- we have seen fairly significant retracement and eastern european sensitive sectors like financials. the potential risk of deflation is not being priced into markets. >> what is being priced into markets? a lot of concerns we have do not seem to be filtering through. are you expecting a correction? both qe is necessary in
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europe and it will occur without the markets forcing the ecb's hand. have not rallied as much as we thought this year. that suggest the market is expecting the ecb to do too little too late. you have inflation in europe that is below 2011 levels. inflation in the u.s. that is at 2011 levels. the market is not retracing like it did a couple of years ago. we do expect there will be central banking push back. we think it will come before the markets gets nervous about the inflation. >> thank you so much for that. here is look at what else is coming up. biggest of the world's ad company.
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the ceo joins us next. it looks like twitter, but it's ipo won't. drowning their sorrows, diageo slumped on asian demand. stay with us, we are on the move.
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>> i am friends when -- i am francine lacqua in london. this is "on the move."
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drinkn see a lot of the makers today are having a pretty tough time out there. a lot ofn in china, their higher-end products are doing well. medium-range is not doing so well. if you have a lot of cognac and you are trying to sell it, people start pulling back because they are reining in spending. it is quite difficult to regain that market share. quarterly sales unexpectedly fell because of what is going on in the emerging markets. -- thegest gainer today advertising giant is expected to merge later the share posted sales that just missed analyst estimates. the company season improving environment in europe and emerging markets. the chief executive joins us by phone from paris.
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thank you for joining us. give us a sense of china. this is something we talked about in the past. this is one of the biggest concerns. you are seeing the stabilizing, but also picking up. it was extremely difficult. we were down by more than 10%. luxurys mainly due to goods, gifts, and a lot of advertisers cut expenses. say that it is a pick up. improvedtion has without being the enthusiastic growth that we have seen two or
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three years ago. it is a moderate situation with moderate growth. a much improved situation compared to the last quarter, we have to remain cautious regarding the emerging markets. it is not only about china. progressivelyving a maple leave the strategy of the government is to move from -- and they believe the strategy of the government is to move to growth coming from consumption, which means improving the life of the middle-class. >> what about europe? you say italy and spain are showing growth for the first time since 2011. a lot of analysts are crying victory.
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was just speaking to an economist who was worried about deflation. how worried are you that the small gains and growth can reverse just as easily? situation -- we should glasses whichith are a little bit more optimistic. we see an improvement in greece. most -- we had 30% down in investment. spain, portugal, we numbers.ng positive which is something we have not seen. it does not mean that we can start thinking the situation is over, and wesis is
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will see double-digit growth. ,t is clearly an improvement and a solid improvement. growth is extremely fragile. look at the situation in france. has been flirting with zero growth. slightly negative, slightly positive, but really on the edge of the zero. we have posted two percent growth, which is not huge, not great, but it is solid. we see some very positive signs. a much more energetic situation. ceos are more confident regarding the situation in the country.
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consumer, which morech boards -- much towards consumption than they were in the middle of last year. we see a slight improvement. >> how much do you worry about the situation between russia and ukraine? if we see u.s. boots on the ground, will that have an impact on the psychology and what does that mean to the bottom line? ukraine isation in close to zero. it is not a big problem for us. more.oblem is much what would be the impact on the global economy and how people see this and if they will see an
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?mpact on the rest of the world the tension may contaminate the relationship. this will happen. i believe we have been mistaking by thinking we could take the out of the russian influence and it was probably a andmistake from the people nato and the european union and we should have found a very different approach. the situation is such today that it is in the interest of everyone to try to find common ground and to avoid the situation worsening. lowering the attention is in the interest -- the tension is in
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what they have done in crimea, which has been, let's say, accepted by the international community. if they are going to invade progressively ukraine, these will be unacceptable. it is not in their interest to the tensionrther and to find an exit of that situation. >> you are still awaiting approval from chinese regulators on the big merger. will that come in the next couple of weeks? >> we hope so. we do not see any major hurdle. it is a link the process and
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something -- it is a lengthy process and something that is taking more time than we expected. we do not see a major problem with the chinese authorities. we do not see anything that could come in the way of an agreement. you never know when it comes to the administration. >> we hope for the best. >> we are absolutely confident that we will get the authorization from the antitrust authorities of china. >> thank you for joining us today. joining us by phone from paris. a double shot of earnings disappointment. we will pour over the numbers after the break. ♪
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>> welcome to. best welcome back. -- welcome back. thank you so much for sticking around. a little bit more optimistic than some of the economists. he seems confident that everything will be resolved between ukraine and russia. commentsing markets
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that struck me because he says, it is still fragile, but it is getting there. >> the emerging markets are an interesting area for us. people universally agree with that. the reason we are not more bullish because the profitability trends are still negative. not just returns on equities alone, and most of that is because even though there is strong sales growth, it it is .hittled away by wage inflation the real problem for emerging markets continues to be the discount rate is still going up. you had interest rates that were far too low for too long. the cost of equity is going up in the discount rate is going up, you have a bad profitability scenario. it probably will not get much worse.
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at some point, there will be a stabilization. look at japan, profitability trends are positive. there are better investments than emerging markets. >> when is the right time? how do you choose what to buy? >> we are looking for profitability. what happened was quality continue to outperform longer than we expect it. the high-quality companies are very overpriced, above 2007 levels. very strong trends in improving profitability. >> thank you so much for all of that today. let's have a look at some of the drink makers.
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we had figures from diageo earlier this morning. months, inny january, the totals would be tough. they are saying china is still an incredibly difficult place. thepolitical back drop in political movements and changes emy.ressing on rum they are really going after the businessman and that is beginning to bite on the numbers. >> that is basically hurting them. >> they talk about thailand and
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the political unrest and they talk about the currency issues. top-flight and growth will be impacted -- top line growth will be impacted. christmas, chinese authorities are going after a broader sweep. 19%.pacific down view?seems to be the >> it is about where west of the -- it is about were the rest of the deal will come from. that will give them 10% of the booze market on a global basis. potentially, more deals to come. look through the valuations, look for the valuations.
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>> up next, we will talk tech as china's answer to twitter enters a nervous market. wu-tang clan releases a single copy of the album. ♪ . .
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>> welcome back to "on the move ." i am francine lacqua at bloomberg's european headquarters in london. we are 30 minutes into the trading day. this is a picture for a lot of these indices. the ftse, cac pretty much unchanged. they vary a little bit between gaining 0.2 or down 0.2. a lot of focus is on what janet yellen said last night. centralerated that the bank will continue to support the economy. a lot of talk also on valuations in terms of the tech industry
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and some of the corporates disappointing. manus cranny is at the touchscreen with three stocks to watch. drugmakers. >> the laggards of the market. we will come to remy in a moment. buddy, mr. levy, you just had a conversation with them. the numbers come in line. stock up 3%. caution on emerging markets. italy and spain, first growth since 2014. organic growth at publicis up. that is a recap on the rhetoric from our recent levy. remy cointreau is the laggard of the stoxx 600. this is touching levels we haven't seen since november of last year. organic sales down, full-year sales down. , once you stop drinking the fine stuff, would you ever return? missed on sales and
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operating profit but are rebalancing. fear not. it will return. down 3.4%. >> thank you, manus cranny. these are the bloomberg top headlines. roses from u.s. to asia after the fed chair janet yellen a short investors that she is committed to keeping rates low. shortfall of the employment or inflation from their respective objectives, the slower the projected progress toward those objectives, the longer the current target range for the federal funds rate is likely to be maintained. u.s. secretary of state john kerry is in geneva for a crisis meeting with russia, ukraine and the eu. the meeting is the first since clashes erupted in eastern ukraine. president barack obama says russia will face increasing economic penalties unless russian president putin stops
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supporting separatist militias in ukraine. european car sales jumped 10% in march from a year earlier. that is the seventh consecutive monthly gain as consumers replace vehicles. renaulten, peugeot and also gained in demand yesterday. toldenault chief executive bloomberg he's he's a big recovery coming in europe. let's turn to tack. erased about 3% from google's share price in extended trading last night. results had been seen as a key test for the market. the chinese microblogging service weibo price on the low-end of its ipo range and will begin trading on the nasdaq today. here with mark, caroline hyde. also, jonathan ferro. let's kickoff with you, caroline. it is largely the concern
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that they are not managing to monetize mobile. they are still selling a lot of advertising. promotions went up 26%. with page is struggling the fact that you can charge as much because a lot of this is going to mobile. you can only charge 9% less at the moment. they are trying to sound optimistic. they are saying, in the longer-term we will drive up prices. they have so much more targeting. they know where you are, the can see what applications you are using. at the moment, not as much bang for your buck versus desktop. this is a company that is spending heavily as well. investors want to see the stock make a difference to the bottom line. they are making very speculative bets, buying into robotics and drowns. for $3ught nesting labs billion to try to get google in your home.
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as yet, there doesn't seem to be filtering into overall sales. still.lion worth of cash $12 billion worth of revenue. it is the nervousness about the tech industry that saw the selloff. >> if you look at a company like google, it is making money. it has a track record. >> at least it has got a profit. >> you look at social media. you look at weibo, you think, how do i price this? >> you look at twitter, linkedin, facebook, they have been slammed the last two months. we asked last week, who would want to come to the market now? you can't plan for this kind of thing. it is priced at the low end of the range. i don't think that is a surprise. i don't think many people expect a big pop today. that conservative approach to company benefits it, maybe. hypemoves some of that
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that we got for the likes of twitter and that expectation as well. comparisons will be made. how many times can you get a company that doesn't make a profit come to market? >> how much do we know about weibo? it is the chinese twitter. is it used more than twitter? give us an idea. >> let's use the user base. the user base, 240 million over million at weibo. you'd look at revenue per user, to dollar $.76 at twitter. $1.46 at weibo. twitter wins. the prophet, they don't make money. that is going to be the issue. sensea blessing in the that they have got a big opportunity. they are there. facebook isn't, twitter isn't.
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earlier,he question who is this guy chen kun? you have never heard of him either. this guy has 72 million followers on weibo. katy perry, the most followed on twitter, 52 million. he is an actor in china. we have chinese ceos that come on the program that have 10 million followers. captivegives you a unique audience that weibo has and twitter does not. second, the fact is they have to adhere to censorship policies in the chinese state. that is a blessing because it means they can operate there but it is a curse which means it is going to liberty -- limit their operating base outside of china. >> ibm last night disappointing in terms of sales. it fell in after-hours trading. google is deemed an old guard that met estimates but disappointed. intel as well.
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these companies at the moment are furthering the selloff in technology. next week we get facebook. the week after we get twitter. id on thehe new k block. >> can we call it a new kid on the block? because it is so focused on china, some of these guys that have 100 million followers, we have never heard of. is it valued at the low end because we don't type -- don't quite understand what weibo is? valuing it ate this stage? >> that is one way of looking at it. when you try to pry something like this, you price for the potential it has to grow. it is in china. it is adhering to the censorship rules. what does that mean for their user base growing over time?
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what we have seen in the selloff was people talking about moving from growth stocks into more mature tech companies. ibm, microsoft, cisco holding up relatively well. the concern from google is that numbers messed. if numbers keep missing from these mature stocks, this text selloff could get more aggressive. tothe chinese are coming the u.s. they are being lured over by the good tech valuations. comparison,nt a 2007, chinese tech companies coming over. >> we will continue the conversation in just a couple of minutes. as we had to break, a reminder that we will have full coverage of weibo's debut later today. bloomberg will be speaking with the company's chairman. ♪
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>> welcome back. i am francine lacqua. this is "on the move." let's continue the conversation on weibo which is expected to begin trading on the nasdaq today. i am joined by a media analyst.
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great to have you on the program. when you look at weibo, it seems that the opportunities for weibo are endless. yet they still don't make a profit. talk to me about the business model. what could they become? there is no facebook, there is no rival ike there are here for social media. essentially, weibo is similar to twitter. it is sometimes thought of as the twitter of the east. a micro bubbling -- microblogging platform. money outg a little of games which are very popular in china. its primary business model is advertising. that has really been their focus. that the understand is way they use it is very different.
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i would post something but i wouldn't go inside a changing room, try on a top and tweet it to my friends to see whether it suits me. i understand the chinese consumer uses it a lot more in terms of interacting. out asertainly started more a kind of discussion platform. >> like whatsapp almost. >> kind of, but more like twitter. they have had issues with censorship and i think that has stymied their user growth. user growth has really slowed right now. that is probably the main concern. they do have competition. chat has grown much more quickly. one of the advantages that wee chat has is that it is more of a closed platform. --rs have more priebus he more privacy. there is a view that weibo has
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suffered because of censorship. weibo has suffered slightly as user growth has stuttered. that is a big concern. revenue growth fell quarter on quarter in q1. it is priced at a much lower level than people were expecting a few months ago. the text selloff that you mention is probably also a factor. >> businesswise, what do you make of this company? what can be its business model? there are actors on their which we have never heard about who have 80 million viewers. me seems ms. to that theder context is internet audience in china is growing very fast. they have a huge population. internet penetration is still relatively low. it is around 30%.
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there is a long way to go. it could grow its audience very significantly. the advertising market is also going incredibly fast. macro picture is very positive for weibo and other internet services in china. capture it idon't guess. >> the competition is fierce. there is massive competition over there. the concern is that they are not going to be able to capture the opportunity. >> do you think they will have to announce something big? whatsapptalking about being some kind of mobile payment transfer, this is all speculation at the moment. in your mind, for weibo to be successful, does it need to become international or does it need to stay domestic but become more than a social website like twitter? >> the challenge for a lot of
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these chinese internet services is that they are very much local creations catering to a local market. it is a big challenge for them to expand their appeal outside servicesor to develop which will have appeal outside of china. ok in the chinese market. there is a huge opportunity there. i would think the core focus should be exploding the opportunity in china and trying to develop services which can appeal to internet users and chinese consumers who are signing up. think the fundamentals are there. they have got a great platform. they really need to execute. >> thank you so much for your time, ian maude. we havep on "the pulse" all the top stories covered.
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socgen's head of emerging markets joins us to weigh on today's crucial meetings in geneva. we will also size up the drinks industry in light of diageo and remy cointreau's numbers today. a man at the heart of the hip-hop scene. the wu-tang producer came up with the idea of selling just one copy of the group's next album. all of that and much more on the top our on "the pulse." let's turn to the crisis in ukraine. we have been talking about it in terms of markets, in terms of impact on business. top diplomats from ukraine and russia meet today in geneva. meanwhile, the u.s. and european union are preparing new sanctions. ryan chilcote joins us on the phone from geneva following the meetings. ryan, what do we know right now?
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the talks are about to get underway. jan rest in eastern ukraine continues. he is now meeting with the ukrainian foreign minister. before they get together with -- russian foreign minister the first real talk speech -- real talk between ukraine and russia accompanied by the u.s. and european union. there are four things here. the russians made their proposal about a month ago. they want decentralization of power in ukraine. secondly, they want russia enshrined as a second national language.
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third, they want ukraine to -- not unlikeng switzerland where we are now. is theaine, the key russian troops, the 40,000 of them on the border. concerned,hey are the russian forces they believe are operating under cover in the east of the country. the talks get underway in about 20 minutes. >> we will follow that very closely. president putin also start his -- his annual televised question-and-answer session. what can we expect from that? >> that might be more important. the thing here is, some people are wondering whether sanctions should have preceded these talks.
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doesn't get what they would like to see out of these talks, more sanctions could come quickly. we of course have the eu foreign ministers. they are more divided than the u.s. >> ryan, thank you so much. ryan chilcote on the ground following those talks in geneva. here are some companies on the move in the meantime. discovery offered about 350 million pounds for the broadcaster but according to a person with knowledge of the matter, it may sell for more than 400 million pounds. b-sky-b had been working with discovery on the offer. shares of diageo and remy cointreau are down after both companies were hit by weaker demand in asia.
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remy expects full-year earnings to slide. a new report shows that the average airfare at heathrow airport may jump by more than 200 pounds by 2030 if it continues to operate with just two runways. passengers traveling through europe's biggest hub page 95 pounds on average more for return fares than they would if the airport had a third landing strip. coming up, it is not easter without eating your fill of cadbury creme eggs. thes a massive business for british chocolate maker and it takes years of planning to get one holiday weekend right. details ahead. ♪
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>> it isn't easter unless there is a creme egg involved. we took a look at cadbury. >> it is a very important time for us. we need to get easter right. we are making about 47 million easter eggs. the whole year we have about 30% of the top market. at easter time we have about 50%. the bestseller for us is the cadbury creme egg. we make about one million of those. egg is a solid milk
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chocolate and inside that, you -- to replicate what an egg looks like. we slam the two together and it closes. like most chocolate manufacturing, most of it is automated. the easter eggs you will be eating and enjoying this easter were made in the last few weeks or a few months. he re-are at easter 2014. pretty2015 is probably much put to bed in terms of planning. easternow working on 2016. a lot of people think the creme egg is on sale all year round. it isn't. for me, the creme egg is a
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little ray of sprinkled sunshine in the dark winter. >> 1.2 million creme eggs a day. stay with bloomberg tv. "the pulse" is coming up next. we will be talking about ukraine and the would tank and with its producer. -- the wu-tang clan with its producer. ♪
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theop diplomats meet for first time since clashes erupted in eastern ukraine. that as president putin hosts an annual q&a. first twitter, now weibo. the chinese site has its trading debut in new york. google numbers highlight the challenge of a shift to mobile. drowning their sorrows, shares as a at diageo and remy slowdown in china leaves them with a hangover. welcome to "the pulse

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