tv On the Move Bloomberg May 2, 2014 3:00am-4:01am EDT
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disappointed because what on earth will they blame it on this time. >> speaking of big ones, a big offer from pfizer. >> if anyone comes in to spoil this offer, he may indeed offer a lower price. i will bring that to you a little bit later. they are really cranking up the pr machine to get the deal done, anna. >> our international correspondent is in berlin. hans, you're on the other side of the frenzy watching bayer and merck. >> we are expecting a deal to come in the coming days. it seems to inking this $14 billion deal.
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>> we'll keep an eye on those. the u.k. banks say first-quarter profits tripled. how will that go down? manus cranny, what are you watching this morning? i think those are the three #'s. we have a great new function. we're looking at the nonfarm payrolls. look at the construction numbers. the reason i bring that back to the for this morning is that the bank of england deputy governor is warning that we need to be vigilant and ready to act in terms of the high prices. this is all going to build toward the view that the u.k.
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moved towards taking edge off the market. the dollar is trading a bit higher through the morning session. he ever just feel things were going to go your way? let's look at the equity market. slightly lower opening, anna. final purchasing managers index .xpected to come in at 53.3 the unemployment numbers in the eurozone to come in around 11.9%. enzy friday. bayer up one quarter of a percent, miserable.
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that's if we have fresh prices coming through on the feet are not. that strikes me as being perhaps not exactly up to date. an entire debate over the value of sterling. it is part of the driver for the euro going higher. the buildup of foreign reserves -- i don't think that argument holds really well. back to you, anna. david leibovitz is a global market strategist for j.p. morgan asset management which oversees $1.5 trillion in assets. what are you doing with your one and a half trillion at the moment? >> i think there's a lot of uncertainty in the market right now. that is why we haven't seen a market go anywhere so far this
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year. when you consider opportunities for long-term investors, we like emerging markets. the have become extremely cheap over the past couple of months. we think over the next few months we may see the next opportunity present itself in the debt market. >> we have seen so much merger and acquisition activity, would you read into that that shareholders don't see this as value creating activity, and not something that is going to give the global economy a leg up? how you interpret a lack of reaction? >> at think with respect to m&a, we have not seen a lack of reaction. companies involved in these transactions action outperform the s&p 500. we want to see actual value creation rather than just doing it because everyone else is doing it. >> are you buying into global
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growth stories? if you like euro zone growth you buy those stocks. how are you making decisions on which of the assets, which of the equity strategies to follow at the moment? >> is important to remember when you buy in, you're not buying gdp futures. when i think about the opportunities, a trader focus on fundamentals. i try to find those companies with established market share who are producing good cash flows. >> a pharma sector is very much at the center of things because of all the m&a frenzy. is that at the center of your investment? >> i think health care plays a role in any diversified portfolio. to honestyt of way of his deal shakeout. i want to see more concrete information as to where these deals are headed before i go and make it out. >> we have analysis from
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bloomberg that was talking about the history of deal mating within the pharmaceutical sector -- dealmaking within the pharmaceutical sector. bit think it is still a early to say. back to the point made earlier, it is all about the right kind of deals. biotech and health care spend almost all their money on r&d. if you're acquiring someone that can make value, that makes sense. otherwise, it is not the right play. contrasted the u.s. and european earning seasons. how instep or out of step are they with each other? >> i think they are a bit out of step. they're continuing to have a tough time. in the u.s. we're seeing decent earnings growth, not as strong as we saw out of the recession, but relatively solid. what is missing in europe is earnings growth.
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gdp. a pickup in nominal that rate of growth should help boost profits down the road. >> do you see opportunities for european stocks to catch up with where some of the u.s. stocks have gone before them as the euro zone economy recovers? you're not buying growth futures, are you? >> it will be in a company by company basis. when investors look at europe, doesn't make sense to buy the index. you want to find those companies with established market share. >> david, thank you very much. more with him when we come back. here's a look at what else is coming up on "on the move." we will break down the multibillion-dollar deals in the . the from pfizer and bayer
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amazon fire tv. additionalee any costs for customer compensation. we will continue to watch the stocks through the morning. it is all about jobs today with march unemployment figures do out from the eurozone this morning. the april jobs report out of the u.s.. jonathan ferro has all the details you could be looking for. the market is looking for 218,000. it is going to be more about the headline number. underemployment, average earnings, hours worked. this really is about a second quarter. given the weakness we had in the first quarter and that pathetic gdp read, this first quarter
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really does matter because you cannot blame the weather anymore. that excuse is dead. the comparisons to 2011 are going to pick up. if you don't know what i mean by that, that is when the second round of quantitative easing and it. a year later, the fed had to crank out the stimulus again. ecb is looking for clues as to whether it needs to add anothermulus, isn't it? part of mario draghi and the ecb's puzzle. nothe labor market is just in the ecb's mandate like it is for the fed. we are set to stick at 11.9% today. that is pretty close to a record high. >>jon, thank you very much. david, let's pick up on whatj
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jon was talking about. let's start out in the u.s.. a strong number and the sense that it will be the strongest in a number of months. how do you see things developing in the u.s. economy from here? >> think we can expect something north of 200,000. the range between 200 and 250 is a sweet spot. if we go above 250, bonds will take it. if we go below, stocks will take a hit. broadly speaking, the u.s. economy is on track. whether related distortions, but it does appear that some seasonality wasn't play in slowing the numbers. as weathert dissipates for the numbers to improve. there telling people to look beyond the first quarter and
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their tapering plan despite their weaker than expected gdp numbers coming through for the last quarter. >> i expected them to stick to their plan with respect to tapering. if you have been tapering and you see a couple bits that don't abouthat does that say the fed? it means that they are indecisive and not sticking to their guns. the whole point of forward guidance as to telegraph where things are headed. with the fed being wishy-washy, that is going to make it more difficult for investors to understand where markets may be headed. >> what is your interpretation of what the ecb has been telegraphing? where are they headed? we will get the numbers out from the eurozone today, another piece of the jigsaw. how the euro zone economy is really performing right now. on the one hand we have worries about inflation, but on the other, some of the pmi numbers have been improving. >> first of all, it is important to remember that unemployment is a lagging indicator. the improvement we have seen thus far may not actually be
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reflected in the jobs number yet. with respect to the ecb, they will do something. the question for me is what and when. in terms of when, it will be post the parliamentary elections later this year. they're waiting to get that out of the way before they do anything significant. in terms of what, they could institute a negative deposit rate or some quantitative easing. with respect to qe, it will look for different from what we have seen in the u k and the u.s.. >> what kind of thing might they do? are they going to be buying asset backed securities? what will they be able to do? >> it will be much more of a credit ease. bonds for corporate various companies, bring down corporate buying costs. of that, theto all borrowing costs are a real issue. we have talked about the difference between borrowing costs on the core and the
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periphery. it is still very expensive to borrow money, as spencer -- especially for small businesses. these are the companies that drive growth. we need to get credit going, because that is been the biggest difference in europe, compared to other markets. that is not being passed through to some of the companies in the eurozone. was that mean in terms of -- markets? is that a trend that is set to continue? i'm not sure we will see outperformance, but actual conversation about investor sentiment, investors don't really know where to go right now. the neutral sentiment reading is at its highest level in nine years. to me that means that investors are looking for something to grab onto. frankly, they haven't found anything this year. could we see positive returns in fixed income? absolutely.
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>> talking about themes to grab onto, the emerging market is something investors are really clung to during the financial crisis. some people are questioning whether that size legs or should we be investing more in developed market growth right now. how do you view the emerging markets from where you're sitting? a long-term investor and you're looking over the next three to five years, i would my money into emerging markets. they're cheap. is going to be volatile. you have to understand that. it is one of the highest percentages of em gdp this year. with respect to emerging markets, is important to look at the underlying fundamentals of the economy. you want net creditors, you want those companies -- those countries that are in strong financial positions. frankly, it is not about buying index at this point. markets are up significantly. we are starting to see more
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differentiation based on the fundamentals. thank you, david. it is 17 minutes past eight here in london. let's bring up to speed on some of the companies that are on the move. sony posted a preliminary net ss of $1.3 billion. the company is trying to come up traditionalts as demand for their products like tvs declines. audi sold over 2000 of its revamped a three sedans in the car's first four months. shares -- it has been
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back to "on the move." i'm anna edwards in london. pfizer sweetens its offer for astrazeneca come up in its bid --a cool 106.5 alien dollars -- 106.5 bialie llion dollars. manus cranny, you are in the studio with me, let's kick it up with you. like a plate looks to get astrazeneca to the table. they are telling the --titutional shareholders
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they are strongly advised to take no action. >> in other words, don't sell. >> 50 pounds is the number. there've improve improved the cash element, the price. politically, they're going after cameron. a substantial proportion of the r&d. 20% of the r&d will be here in the united kingdom, retaining the production facilities. they're going at it. the. i spoke with our industry analyst and he said they need to do $2 billion worth of synergies here. if they do the deal, the synergies will come in sweden and the usa. pfizer says that if somebody counter bids, we could offer a lower price.
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they are just below 50 right now. >> which i find a little bit confusing. would there be a white knight? man sam saysdustry it is very unlikely in his view. pfizer are the masters of the megamerger. >> let's stick with pharmaceuticals. is offering considerably higher than the initial $10 billion price tag. it looks like it is no longer the center of a bidding war. now they are and merck -- buyer and merck -- bayer and merck, if you look at their
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stock, it is pretty much unchanged this morning. investors may be waiting for a little more certainty on what that final price tag is going to be. we expect it to be 14 billion. this is basically an asset swap. they will be cached components, assets. we will see if bayer gets the consumer products division. those things will go to them. merck will get potentially the animal services, the animal aalth, become more of pharmaceutical and r&d company. that is the trade-off. synergies on both sides, looks like this deal is all but done. we're just waiting for the final terms and then the announcement. >> hands, thank you very much. manus cranny's in the studio with the bigger of the two pharmaceutical deals we're talking about.
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welcome back to "on the move." i'm anna edwards. francine lacqua will be appearing a little bit later. 13 minutes into the trading day, let's see how things are shaping up on equity markets. we are little bit weaker on the french market. either side going nowhere on european equity markets. have a big jobs report that will be released a little bit later today. let's dig a little deeper into the market story.
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jonathan ferro is that the touchscreen. >> three countries to have a look at. astrazeneca has been on the move over the last couple of weeks. bayer is said to be in exclusive talks to buy merck. .t has been plenty of action rbs is up 10%. the good news for this bank, a little bit of a novelty. truck -- profits tripled. here's a big issue. 337 pence, back to 338 right now. rakes --nment breakeven at 407. >> these are bloomberg's top headlines. ukrainian separatists say the nation's army has begun an operation to retake the city of slovyansk. were shot downrs
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and one pilot was killed. in ukraine will top the agenda for president obama and chancellor merkel when they meet in washington. a white house spokesman said that germany's anger over the nash -- over the nsa surveillance program which caused merkel to cancel a u.s. trip last year will not complicate a joint effort to address the situation in ukraine. u.s. employers probably boosted payrolls in april by the most in five months. economists predict that the u.s. added 218,000 jobs last month after a gain of 192000 and march. a pickup in april would follow data this week showing that households spent more freely and manufacturing accelerated. to the pollstakes next week in the country's finance minister seems sure that the ruling anc will retain power. we sat down for an exclusive conversation.
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having the advantage of an institution like the african national congress which will win the election by significant majority means there is continuity and transparency and relative certainty about what we intend to do. we have a record of translating election manifestoes and a commitment to the national development plan into business plans for government departments. >> south africa's true growth potential is being hampered by the fact that we have different policy for entrepreneurship. you agree with this? >> we have to make a very clear investment. , thereing the support are fascinating examples of good things are happening. what we need to do in africa is raise the scale at which they're
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happening in order that they make a bigger impact. >> south africa's now the second largest economy in africa. your growth rate relative to what nigeria is expecting, do will be falling behind the rest of the continent? >> historically, you have established a new economic base. it is about the sophistication -- also the sophistication of the business enterprises that we have. for -- whereas the number itself might attest to one set of issues, if one looks at the economic base and economic infrastructure and capabilities of south african firms and the manner it in which their backs are penetrated the african continent, whether it is mining services, financial services, telecommunications, south africa is in a league of its own. >> will you be remaining in this position after the election?
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>> you can ask the president that question. we are joined now from johannesburg with more on her conversation. just a few days ago, we are seeing money of strike activity taking place in south africa. what does all that tell us about the state of the south african economy right now? >> we talk about a strike action in the country, 70,000 miners are currently on strike. it is the longest ever running strike in south africa. it is unprecedented heard when i spoke to the minister about his concerns with the guard to the strike, he said important investors will look through the notke action to save is only endemic to south africa but a global issue as well. other sectors offering great opportunity. strike action is on the rise. it is becoming a lot more aggressive. it is showing there are concerns with regards to policy levels, the inequality gap.
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we're talking about sophistication. south africa has 24% unemployment. he is talking about trying to sort that out very it is a policy that is been unable to make a dent in the unemployment rate. >> are investors more interested in nigeria? >> is a very important question. investors are showing a lot of interest. one of the other countries he's visiting most often besides china is nigeria. it is one of his favorite emerging markets. nigeria is dealing with its own set of risks. another bomb blast has hit the capital. that, he's talking about the sophistication of various institutions.
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ibo are looking for those growth rates above seven percent, which south africa does not have right now. >> let's stay with south africa in more ways than one and bring in david bloom. very good to have you on the program. who better to ask, with no vested interest in the subject, -- let's pick up on the rant. this is not the case in south africa. as we know, usually the discussion is whether the two werds majority are not. knows going to win the election, but the question is by how much. there's low volatility and interest rates are high. the election is coming up in brazil and indonesia.
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these are the fragile five. the me tell you something, they're the fabulous five. the reason is, there is no volatility in the market. inflation expectations are falling. we're talking about more qe in japan and the possibility of qe in the eurozone. ift better to do then there's nothing going on, then to get paid to do nothing? >> you're saying by the south african rand and not the nigerian currency? note doubt about economics. you can love economy and there's not much to buy. in norway there are not many assets to buy. they don't have a deep and liquid bond market. for good reason. south africa is a sophisticated market.
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nigeria sophistication is not quite there. >> let's talk about volatility in the markets or lack of. .ow volatility high yields. also, if you're a corporate sector and you have some hedging to do, options are really cheap at the moment. there is fantastic opportunity to lock in a certain rate. there are opportunities out in the markupple field have nothing to do. i'll tell you what to do, you buy those emerging markets. what you do is worry. that is what you do. >> that is what you like to do. by the emerging markets and worry over the weekend. we are seeing this lack of volatility in the start of the year. given the political tensions, there could be reasons to worry if you are looking for them. you think the central banks hold all the keys and we are on this
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then irse from the fed, guess -- >> we're not quite sure. you look at some of the news clips you have put out. you show some of the dangers in the world. isn't that the fed is on autopilot? the fed eventually started tapering. we are now into the journey. flip on that autopilot and sit back and relax. >> snoozing with your eye mask on. >> the pilot is not taking full control. backur before landing his in control. at the moment we are in a cruise control autopilot. that is why we are discussing payrolls. would change the fed? no.
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that is why the lowballer looks like where it will stay. >> is 200,000 the key question? 80,000 in either direction. within 80,000, the market for the dollar will be stronger. if you start getting 80,000 more, now you're talking 300,000. now you're talking blood and guts and gore. now it is getting interesting. on the other side, you're talking about the low hundred thousand. >> it is a wide range, isn't it? >> you have to be 80,000 away from the number to really get things going and get the ball back up again. why would the fed flip the button? >> a little bit of turbulence and then back to normal. what about the ecb and what they will do in the weeks ahead? we have unemployment numbers coming out of the eurozone later today. we are not expecting to see any
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change in that number, once again. >> inflation numbers from germany were lower. numbers unemployment do? it is most important number. the buy sell indicator of the eurozone. >> some people talk about a number of indicators that the ecb have reported. >> we know they have an inflation mandate. they want to stick to that. if that euro spot is pumping upwards, even by their own calculations, a 10% move in the euro cuts inflation down by about one percent, roughly. the can't afford to have a stronger euro, either. >> thank you very much for joining us. have a good weekend. strategy atency hsbc. leave youto break, we with a taste of high fashion. a star-studded party.
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in london. edwards this is "on the move." rbs shares are on the move this morning. this after first-quarter profit tripled and beat analysts estimates. it didn't see any additional costs for customer compensation, not let -- not yet at least. caveatcould you put that in on a morning when ross mccue it is sitting on the boards going oh, thank god. sinkedse, the kitchen everything. these numbers are good. first quarter net income tripled. it was triple where it was last year. the market was looking for a loss. when you look inside these numbers, it is about staff costs. this time last year, this bank
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had impairments. that is a key driver. , i was told tome be ready for a big restructuring charge. there's no sign of that yet. >> they are suggesting that later on in the year they will get some more of these one offs. about the time and amount of redress. >> that was attached in the copy beside markets. first-quarter profit rose within the markets division. you're right, it is about litigation and ongoing investigations and the restructuring charges may well, later in the year. capital? they're building the gain towards capital. they're getting closer to 11%.
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they have the government slightly off their back in terms of ability to pay their debt. >> to have a host of businesses that they're trying to either turn around or get to spin off. those a positive update this morning on one of those at least. >> ulster bank. use a 17 million pounds is not a great deal to sing about, but what you're seeing here is that the loan losses dropped by over 80%. will they try and sell the they will update us at the end of the summer. it looks like they will go for an ipo in the fourth quarter. that is the key to the kingdom. get rid of citizens annie get rid of your capital boost. that gives you the ability to make a and pay dividends. >> he is getting serious. manus is pointing his pen at me. thank you very much.
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now, the pulses coming up at the top of the hour. guy johnson joins us from the newsroom with a preview. >> i don't have a pen to point you, but things are serious. we're going to get an update from heather harris on the situation in kiev -- in the ukraine. ukrainian forces are trying to change the dynamics on the ground. i think that is as best as you can put it. we have a situation where it looks like separatists have taken control of most of the region. this offensive obviously is artie leading to casualties twoin -- with reports of helicopter thing down. let's talk about what is happening with the merkel visit to washington dc. we will address all of that. we will talk a little bit about whiskey. we have a great entrepreneurs
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piece coming up. aboutgoing to be talking man bags. $20,000 man bags. fendi man bags that are been modeled on a handbag all the peekaboo. is -- >> guy, thank you very much for that. let's bring up to speed on some of the companies that are on the move this morning. intercontinental hotels group, beatted revenue that analysts expectations. the company will pay a special dividend after selling two properties. revenue increased six percent from a year earlier. the world's biggest chemical maker beat estimates on increased demand from the agricultural and automobile industry. the company reiterated a target for annual earnings to rise despite plans to divest the gas
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>> welcome back. one stock on the move today is macau. bloomberg spoke to him in a squeeze of conversation and talk to him about doing business in china. >> what has happened is, the opportunity in macau is so terrific that makes other things look less than terrific. so yes, it is true that we are primarily a chinese company. that is probably going to look even more so as our third hotel, palace is being completed. the store,tio where point where the ratio is even bigger than ever. you have a new
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project that could cost you north of 3 billion dollars. are you worried that you will saturate the asian market when the chinese economy is slowing? >> in the last three or four wynn andr hotel, the macau havecore in been increasing earnings despite the fact that the amount of casinos has doubled. our competitors have built very expensive and well thought out projects. and yet we are still growing. the market has been expanding at a rate that has allowed the market to add supply, because demand has exceeded it. everybody is experiencing growth year-over-year in spite of the fact that the amount of enterprises has increased. government easier to work with in macau than it is
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here? >> the government is more predictable in china than it is in the united states. the government in nevada is very easy to work with because we are very easy to work within the town. gaming and tourism is everything in the state of nevada. the political environment is extremely friendly and understanding of that industry. the federal government in the united states is much more unpredictable and unfriendly to business than the government in china is to business in china. be, asic as that may counterintuitive as it may be, it is absolutely true. you can ask any american businessman that is in both places. >> stay with bloomberg television. guy johnson is back with "the pulse." an hour into trading, a fairly flat richer of the equity markets.
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