tv On the Move Bloomberg May 7, 2014 3:00am-4:01am EDT
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i don't think the ukraine crisis is driving markets but it is a confirmation of issues with german data. factory orders dipped slightly. china -- land sales dropping in 20% of the biggest cities in china. and socgen. they lost russian business at over half a billion euros. it is the biggest exposure for them but if they have to do this for the first quarter, what does it mean for russia going forward? >> we have figures from carlsberg. the biggest russian brewer. we will have more of that shortly. david is in headquarters in berlin. of newse a lot coming out of siemens.
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you have first-quarter earnings and more importantly you have this strategic review, an entire level of bureaucracy taken out of siemens. four sectors becoming nine units. the health-care care sector, speculations that will be separated just like we saw within finian. you have the turbine business from rolls-royce. a lot going on. i will be back with my interview with the ceo of little bit later. >> we will get back to that shortly. in paris, you are watching ahlstrom have a bidding war getting more politically -- more political. conference is just about to start behind me the focus will be on whether i'll strom -- i'll strum -- al will put up for the 70 billion
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on the energy unit. will this -- the share holders vote on the energy units in the fourth quarter. thisl bring you this with with figures from the french finance minister in a moment. >> thank you. we are watching alibaba, the chinese retailer, it filed to go public. it is the biggest ipo ever. we'll have more on the story later this hour. --has loads of explications implications for yahoo!. we will get you the lowdown on this tech ipo next. we have m&a. we have china we are watching out for. we are watching out for banks. hans nichols is watching what we are watching from fiat. >> remarkable ambitions from ceo
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sergio marchionne that cannot fit in a minivan. they cannot fit in any other models. they need jeeves and maserati -- jeeps and maserati's. >> we have a packed day. that is the understatement of the year. what else are we watching? >> the date is not great. yellen is speaking on the state of the u.s. economy. the subplot to this and i think it is more a more american story -- it is the consumer side of tax rate of twitter is down 18%. we have a much more enterprise-oriented technology story here in europe. thee kinds of moves in american tech space is something to consider. yellen will be the crutch decider in terms of sentiment for the markets. that missed estimates. german factory orders declined by 2%. let's go to italy and see if
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fiat has opened yet. not yet. let's see how that goes as it goes on. facebook down 4%. twitter down 18%. technology is going to take on a whole new meaning when we go to the u.s. opening. i have left off my stocks to watch that. let's go into paris. we are keeping an eye on how rom. -- alst record profitability as -- gets ready to a sign up 8.8%. they have helped market share and that is important. price wars are potentially on the way. legal and general are up over 1.7%. it is not going to happen for me.
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never ever goes the way you want it to go. let's look at some of the currencies in terms of the yen. flattening out at the moment. we have seen it rising good morning. dollar, the head of the central bank says that in the face of a high currency, they may interview. that comes off a three-year high. we leave it there. >> manus cranny with the latest on the markets. let's pick up on those themes. .oining us is bill blake and great to have you on the prog ram. we were talking about tech last week and now we have alibaba, the greatest ipo ever. should we embrace such a huge valuation? >> one of the first things you have to look at is that alibaba is not a typical tech stock.
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it is a chinese tech stock and that is a completely different thing. you cannot do internet sales into china. you need to be chinese. you need to be chinese-based. that raises issues to think about around alibaba in terms of how they run their businesses. they are probably not catchable. it is the fastest-growing largest single market that is one to think about. >> at the same time, we can't know what growth figures are like. are the valuations too hi? not as high as some were expecting. it is good news for those who were fortunate enough to get in at the beginning and stuck with it because they understood the potential. -- i think the valuation will be a bargain for investors because if china gets
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it through -- itself through this transition -- you have the largest single market unique to a chinese company. no one else can set up data centers to service this kind of business anywhere else except for china. it needs the chinese government. you have got to be there. they are there and dominant. 80% of the market. when china -- >> very quickly, in 30 seconds, how sure are we that this will happen in the next four or five years? internet spending is limited to 10% because it is tough out there. -- 10% in this country because it is tough out there. >> there is the question of, can this successfully translate? i believe they can. they will bring on more goods onto that site. >> thank you so much. bill blain stays with us. here is a look at what is coming up on "on the move." we talk about europe's energy giants hauling short -- falling
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online. here are the stocks that are on the move. we have a lot of earnings today. you know that we have heard from carlsberg. bank saidhird-largest profits at 85% in the fourth quarter. loan provisions fell from the quarter previously. le gains 3.6%. move.re companies on the that is siemens and alstrom. they are in a bidding war with ge. david tweed is that siemens headquarters. david, let us kick it up with you. siemens has announced a strategy review and you spoke with the chief executive, joe kaiser, an hour ago. what was the key take away? >> this is a huge strategy or
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view their undertaking. he has been working on it since august when he became the ceo. it is going to be a whole liar -- layer of bureaucracy coming out. it will be a bit for the purchase -- there is the purchase of the rolls-royce turbine business. there is a lot going on, but there is the potential alstrom bid. he did not want to talk into detail in about it but he did tell me what it would not be because it won't involve any three-way asset swap that has general electric in it. >> we do what we need to do. they do what they need to do. combining some sort of thing altogether would think that more complex. get complexity out of the way with organizations. where would make it more complex? put paid tonly
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speculation that has been a french press that there may be a three-way asset swap that could involve general electric. it looks like that idea is off the table. siemens has a strategy review which is very ambitious. how much are they looking to save? >> the strategy review -- they are looking to come up with one billion euros a year in term of productivity gains. in some areas, it is difficult to tell how they are going to do it. they are going to have four sectors that have been eliminated. they will be replaced by nine independent divisions that will be focused on electrification, digitization, a electrification. ipo'd in the future. step at a time. i found interesting that he could not say how many jobs at siemens are on the line.
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i pushed him on it and he said, i can only tell you that when the whole strategy review is completed. white a bit of nailbiting among employees. >> thank you. let's turn to all strong -- alstrom. cost rose, provisions increased. bring us up to speed. the press conference is starting just behind me at alstrom headquarters. all the talks will be on whether will violate the ge offer for 17 ilion dollars for the energy unit. they are not planning to use the proceeds of the sale -- they are planning to use the proceeds of the sale to reinforce their transport unit. it represents 30% of the business. he said they are ready to engage
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.n talks with serious bidders they are leaving the door open to siemens. they say that they have opened. the french government has been vocal against the ge bid. i talked to the french finance minister exclusively in paris. here is what he said. >> it is not only about the money. the money question is for shareholders, not the state. the state does not have a preference. it is here to look at the different offers made to alstrom shareholders, and among these offers, how our strategic interests are preserved. we are playing our role just like any other state would. >> the french government wants three things. protecting french jobs. alstrom has about 18,000 employees in france.
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inond, keep the headquarters paris, and third, preserve france's energy independence. france relies on nuclear energy for about 75% of its energy needs. for theseovides nuclear reactors. we will have more at the headquarters in a few minutes. --caroline coon on their caroling coonaird there. with us is bill blain. you must be loving this story. political protectionism -- the priceth the for shareholders is to decide. we could spend the rest of the day talking about m and a and current motivations. i think it would be wrong to dismiss this as this is a french
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being typically french. it is more than that. the french are quite right to be concerned that they are seeing their prime assets -- france does not have -- does have excellent companies. them.m is one of they're concerned that if they lose control, where does that leave the economy in the future? link it too got to what is going on in the u.k. with the astrazeneca take over as well. morning thatn this say that the u.s. companies gaining tax advantage by switching and spending their piles of money overseas is not a good motivation necessarily for him and a. -- m&a. >> provisions missed on estimates. this is a company right for takeover. pe for takeover. >> it is attracted to the right
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partner and eight would probably be ge. we should not overemphasize the french government comments. we should not say to negative because they're trying to be constructive. forgoes ahead, a good thing france but the french government is right to be concerned. >> we are looking at a lot of m and a. it is a lot of positions linked to russia. carlsberg having a tough time because this is one of their biggest markets. what is your take on the situation in russia? the ruble is weakening, an economy that is barely standing at the moment. are we going to -- is it going to hurt a lot of the companies in europe? >> absolutely. we have to look at the russian situation and understand -- away from all the noise about ukraine, look at what has happened in the geopolitical reality. russia has been pushed into a corner. they are not going to share in the global expansion and growth when it comes. if it comes.
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let's hope it does. we make it signals of that later. that leaves russia as a hole that will get worse. it is interesting. you have seen socgen, a bank that is smarter than people give it right at four, coming out and announcing massive provisions because they understand -- give it credit for, announcing massive provisions because they understand what can happen with the russian economy. >> because it could drag it down with it or the russian president going for foreign asset seizures? >> i think there are two aspects. the first one is, what will the before of less business your' economy. it will have a knock on effect and will be multiplied -- demu ltiply earnings across europe. europe is well placed and we have seen it in the numbers to share global growth.
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even the worst parts are expanding. russia has been pushed out of that. how russia reacts is the real question. it is like a replay of the reagan era in some ways. long-term obama's strategy is that it changes attitudes in russia when the russian populace realize how badly damaged the economy has been. >> is the most important question and the one that is completely impossible to predict. overarching this we have the ecb, bank of england, tomorrow. today we have janet yellen. re: going to see more dovish yellen? >> the bond market -- i will always say the bond markets are the most important things in the world. they determine reality. this am and a is journalized it -- journalistic froth. bond markets are fascinating. the u.s. treasury market, despite signs we are getting the
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economy recovering, and i think we will get stronger signals, bond market yields remained very low in supportive. in europe, we have got italy and 3% 10 years the back of the expectations that the ecb is going to go in and buy. the ecb is not going to go in and buy. what they have done is a typical ecb thing of saying, we will think about buying and yes, we are planning it, and the market assumes it happens, and it does not actually have to do anything that might upset the political status quo. >> bravo. playing with words. >> kicking the can down the road and scoring a goal. >> bill, thank you so much. coming up on the program, it is the biggest ipo ever and the most hyped ipo of the year. alibaba files for a blockbuster public offering in the u.s.. we will break down the numbers next. ♪
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fiat one of the biggest losers in today's trading session. it is down by 7% and dragging with it in milan. alibaba makes it official. the retail giant has filed to go public in what could be the biggest public offering the u.s. has ever seen. we are joined with the details. valuation -- we don't know where it is priced, but we understand it is in the middle. >> we don't have a feel for anything. we don't know how they wore raise. it could be $20 billion. the problem is you say to a lot of people, in mainstream, alibaba, and they will reply, what? you will say it is an ebay-amazon mash-up. it is like ebay because it does not sell a product but charge transaction fees. billion last year. 5.5 in a single day.
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these are massive numbers and the question is how do you value a company? we don't have the answer. >> three times bigger then transactions on amazon? >> yes. bigger than amazon on transactions. how to value it? we have estimates and that will give it 168 ilya dollars. that would be bigger than 95% of the companies in the s&p 500. it would be absolutely massive. if you look at amazon, how does that appear? 400 times or 500 times earnings. you cannot compare. where i am looking is on the margin. bloomberg news has done the numbers. of $2.8had profits billion. that is less than amazon and 74 billion. amazon makes less than one cent per dollar. alibaba makes $.43 per dollar. jogger fee,is china, and how you find it. is it a good time to file? >> the trillion dollar question.
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>> welcome back to "on the move ." i am francine lacqua. we are 30 minutes into the trading day. let's see what the markets are doing. this is what is happening. we are seeing a little bit of a decline. manus cranny will go through all of the stock moves we have seen. we have earnings from carlsberg and socgen. a lot of companies reporting and thinking about russia. this is a big play in europe and we have janet yellen testifying this evening. matt will give the input on the
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markets and where we are going. down .8%.h ibex is watch out for fiat. john? >> the russian affect actually started to show up in earnings. socgen profit down. a big mess, down 13%. it is russia. 525 million euro write-down. carlsberg is shrugging it off now but that stock is lower on the year. the numbers not impressive today. they miss here. the man's in russia will drop by mid--single digits. missed in that was unexpected. 1% day.y up by profit of over 5%. the market lights it -- likes it and there is a bright one. siemens these are the -- >> these are the bloomberg top headlines.
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to u.s. is urging ukraine push on with the presidential elections. secretary of state john kerry threaten further sanctions against russia if he continues to sabotage the democratic process in ukraine. south africa's african national congress is set to take the majority in today on selection. rivalsing party faced 28 for just 400 seats in the legislature. recent polls predict the anc to take 63% followed by the democratic alliance with 22%. the u.s. is pressing for guilty pleas for the parent company of bank's investigation, including credit suisse. there try to settle a tax evasion probe equity include a penalty of over $1 billion. they have gotten guilty pleas from subsidiaries but have not gone after whole companies in the financial crisis. -- released,
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earnings missing analyst estimates. this has a lot to do with russia. we still -- we see bill blain saying they try to sort the problems. >> what did you learn from the greek situation? this is not the first write-down they have taken on their holding in russia. in 2012, they took a 200 million euro write-down. today, it is over half a billion. the total write-down so far is nearly 750 billion -- 750 million euros. images of greek. they brought --. geneva bank 2004 and it never made a profit. they made a huge injection of
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cash and it does not save the pain that you see. is this another big issue? is this going to continue? no one knows the answer. who knows the answer about where we will be with the russian exposure? context,put this into russia is a small part, for socgen? >> that is where you go with this story. you go behind the headlines as a, what does it mean to me? is it part of the three percent overall earnings? it is the second-biggest client, but it is for them. retailnch to mastech business. -- domestic retail business. no one knows what it means to your bottom line as opposed to your mental health for the day. it is up by 3% of its earnings. they're committed and say it will take time. that is where we are with the russian context. >> may 13, next tuesday, investor day for socgen.
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and they get answered in the pants he for investor day -- ants in the pants before investor day. is coming up 10%. the brace to mind -- i was at the chris -- credit suisse giants and they were having double-digit gains. a strong return equity. what are they going to do? will they raise dividend payout? we are looking at possibly moving from a 40% in -- they are out about 40%. can they get that from 45% to 50%? i sound like a broken record. return on equity. >> that is what investors care about. >> i know. caroline will sit down with them next week and grill them on their strategy. they all make these promises. jenkins has to deliver on his strategy.
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what will he do? that is tomorrow. i will be stuck somewhere the big archelaus backdrop -- big barclays backed up. we will continue with the isk when russian r we get our figures in a couple of minutes. another company we were watching his fiat. baltimore rails -- alpha red -- -- hans nichols joins us now. hegio marchionne, and what wants is for people to spend more and see as high-end lechery. >> it all depends on what you buy. this is another opportunity to tease you for not being able to drive. this is a remarkably ambitious plan. the numbers are high.
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will he be successful? a good hands on -- it depends on consumer taste. let's look at the numbers. 7 million vehicles by 2018. you look at where volkswagen is at and they think they will be at 10 million by 2014. toyota is higher than that. they will spend cash to get there. some 48 billion euros that they want to spend on this for fiat. they want to see revenues in .018 at 132 billion euros income, around the 4-5 range. up from there to bang billion right now. billion right now. they want plants in south america. here in europe and china and then when we get to the alfa romeo, look at the numbers on what they want to do. they want to take sales all the way to 400,000. it is about 70,000 right now. remarkable growth. they will have to take off. they will not be relying on europe for this growth.
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when we caught up with ceo in michigan yesterday, he indicated there would not be much growth in the european area. >> in 2010, i was hoping that europe would not go to hell. in the interim, you have managed to send it europe to hell. >> it was already going a little -- >> maybe i was incredibly naïve. maybe i was taking illegal material without realizing but i was hoping that europe would stop bleeding as much as it was bleeding. in the interim, we lost another 4 million cars. >> you're more confident this time? >> i am much more confident on not relying on europe. >> the fiat brand predicts around 700,000 vehicles in europe. that is what it is that right now. not a lot of growth they're. the fiat brand is more of my band. that is more my speed. francine? >> more my speed as well. before i asked you about earnings, i have two things to
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say. i am a big fan of marchionne. the style is on italian and good to the fact. lian.-ta talk to me about the earnings. while speaking of that, why it is not -- good not to have a license. >> i have been drinking all morning, so you will catch up to me later. look, quarterly profits disappointed. charge,e a one-time buying part of chrysler from the united auto workers. aboutis what is remarkable o sergio as everyone seems to call him. he is a ceo with a first name. how a patientle is in light of what can only be read as disappointing quarterly earnings. he is looking to china, he is looking to south america. not so much to europe. it is an american sort of confidence.
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>> welcome back. i am francine lacqua. this is "on the move. carlsberg reported that the russian demand evaporated for carlsberg. we are joined by ryan chilcote. you have been drinking in the numbers. jokes aside, if you look at carlsberg, they have a tough this is because they are exposed to russia. >> that is right. the stock has been all over the place but it opened down. the reason is they said they are going to make less money than investors thought they were going to make. they warn investors that they're going to make less in the future. russia is the issue.
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the biggest headline is that they say the russian beer market slowing to slow then -- faster than they were expecting. gest are the second big brewer in ukraine. last year, more than one third of their operating profit from eastern europe. the issue is with the currency depreciation, with the wiki economic backdrop, with all of the turmoil and uncertainty because of the geopolitical situation in ukraine itself, that is what is weighing on them. this is a bet was made a long time ago. it's going poorly for carlsberg. >> they have struggled in the past with russia. it is not like this is something new and they are hitting russia. this was tax increases, already concerned pre-geopolitics about what the environment in russia would look like. how bad will it get? >> if we look at what happened before, there has been a decline
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for the last five years. carlsberg has stuck to russia. with the current situation, they are insisting on sticking with russia, which is something that carlsberg may have to consider at some point. they may have to shift towards the asia-pacific region. in terms of impact, it has a big impact on volume sales and revenues as a ring over 30% of global volume sales are direct russia and a small percentage from ukraine. in terms of that, they would have to look somewhere else. >> do they change strategies straight away? we are talking about product launches in russia. should they wait or focus more aggressively on asia? >> they can't because russia is their biggest market. they will have to divest until they can shift to a more profitable area. the developing market is a better market to look at.
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asia-pacific, africa, latin america. i don't know if they will be attacking or going into these regions. they are already in asia-pacific, so we will have to look at how they have to do biased -- divest away from russia. >> we got earnings from a be in-depth -- ab inbev. their revenue from eastern europe which is a different picture from carlsberg. the problem that carlsberg, in terms of russia exposure, is not sort of unique. societe generale also reported the same issue. heavy russia exposure. what now? they made this that. is it feasible to get into asia? this has been the theme and agent brewersthe or did they miss the boat? >> you may say they missed it because ab inbev entered the
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market. breweries there. they have other opportunities to buy into china. they can enter into that market and sell within the region. there are other markets in southeast asia, something that heineken has been focusing on. >> if you look at the world --, influenceve a huge for a be in-depth. the biggest for inbev. if anything on it will be the local korean brands, which inbev as, or budweiser. carlsberg entering at this moment would be late in the game. there were not be much benefit. they would have to look into other sponsorship. i don't believe it will happen
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-- have that much of an impact. >> drink-wise, where is the sweet spot? we have seen the beer market under pressure in western europe and now in russia. we have heard a lot about brown spirits taking off over the last years. you have a favorite in terms of a stock pick or a company that is headed in the right direction? when it comes to spirits. >> i can't really comment about that. if you were talking about the beer market, ab inbev would be the best performing company at the moment. they have been showing the best results of the top five local brewers. they have been showing consistency in their revenue volume salesir games. outperforming heineken and miller, and these companies have heavy investment in africa and latin america where there is a high degree of growth. >> thank you so much.
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their very own ryan chilcote spirit of "the pulse" is coming up at the top of the hour. we are joined by guy johnson. we will have a conversation about beer we talked to the carlsberg chief executive. >> great motivation to have about beer. we will talk to the carlsberg ceo. here is the business that we will be exposing you to bring we will kick that around. we will get his take on what will happen next. we'll talk about alibaba, can forward to that conversation. what are you buying? that is the big question. this could potentially be the biggest ipo ever. the biggest one we have ever seen in history, anywhere. it is a significant moment and i think is a significant time to talk about what is happening with the chinese economy. that is coming up. we will be joined in the second hour for the program. david tweed will talk about what is going on with siemens. the -- have a guest from
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the story in the first hour or so looking forward to that. he have it all covered. a great ceo, great guests, and great reporting coming up in 10 minutes' time. >> looking forward to all of that. in the meantime, here are companies "on the move." the company held onto its shares of the u.k. grocery market which has had a-long hybrid sainsbury -- decades-long high. to expandis expecting its online presence. 27%it of walt disney rose at the hit movie "frozen" continues to pay off. after hitting $1.1 billion and global ticket sales, it remains the top-selling dvd six weeks after its release. disney's other businesses
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including espn delivered higher sales and profits. twitter sales longed to a record low as a. for itslockup period early investor expired yesterday. there is concerned that internet stocks are overvalued. shares of yelp and pandora felt 8%. coming up, meet jack ma. he is the chinese entrepreneur behind what could be the biggest u.s. ipo ever. we will show you how he built a retail empire from an 80 person company. ♪
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>> welcome back to "on the move ." i am francine lacqua. let's return to one of our top stories and alibaba's blockbuster ipo. yesterday's u.s. filing gives the company a bigger market cap and facebook, but it is coming at a time when investors are wary of internet stocks. amazon is one of the biggest losers this year as investors have not -- not 25% off the retailer's share price. for the man who founded alibaba, it is not quite a rags to riches story, but it is close. $15 ma's first job paid him a month. now he is worth billions. leslie picker has the story.
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>> singing on a stage in front of thousands of employees, jack ma is not your average corporate chairman. he flunked his college entrance exam twice. that may have been the last time jack ma set out to do something and fail. is 49 years old and trained as an english teacher. he learned the language by listening as a tour guide. since then, he started one of china's first internet companies. later, he persuaded 80 people to give him $60,000 and that was the beginning of what is now the alibaba group. e-commerce,nown for both consumer and business to business. company'sadened the interest-rate -- interest. fortune is david
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around -- personal fortune is guided around $13 billion. money does not seem to be his motivation for building an empire is. ma told charlie rose that if alibaba cannot surpass walmart, he will regret it for the rest of his life. we will hear plenty more from him and about him throughout the next couple of days. as we had to break, we will leave you with a look at some of the top stopovers. fiat is one of the big losers in today's trading session. it is down 7.7%. we heard about the carmaker from strategy. they want to focus more on maserati and alfa romeo and they want to go to the high-end customer but they disappointed with earnings. interviewed the ceo as siemens is down 2% after reporting worse than expected
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