limit mortgage lending, it remains the last line of defense. i will be back in a moment. markets just opening. let's check in with caroline hyde at the touchscreen. >> let's have a little look at how trading is currently forming. we are waiting for the market, just opening this very second. ftse completely thought -- completely flat. italy currently trading down by 0.3%. we get up and running in the equity markets. at the moment, just higher on the stoxx 600. if we turn lower today, that could drag away, drain away any of the gains we saw in terms of equities. we are still very close to six-year highs. it is all going to be looking at iraq. isry about geopolitical risk feeding into the worries on traders. a bit of a mixed picture in

terms of trading. not too exciting. what is exciting, what is moving is brent, crude oil currently up 0.7%. let's have a look at how it has been doing on the week. it has been crescendoing up almost 5%. iraq is the second-biggest oil producer to opec. it of course seeing escalating violence. does that mean there will be disruptions to supply? that is driving crude oil higher. we are also seeing the pound drive higher. let's have a look on a two-day basis. it spiked higher yesterday, up 0.8% on the back of what mark carney did born. he said, i could get ahead of you. we could see interest rates rise. at the moment, the market sees interest rates rising in the u.k. in april.

it will be the first central bank to raise rates this year. that is what the speculation is. also, will they really have to turn to interest rates? they hope they can turn the dial down on the housing market, particularly in london by giving the bank of england control of demand. they can start to limit mortgage lending by the banks. they say interest-rate hikes will be the last line of defense. let's look at how that is affecting the housing market. fallingices currently on the back of potentially a cooling in the housing market. all trading lower this morning. looking at the oil market, bp up 0.2% as oil prices rise. air france, you can see airlines dipped lower as people worry about travel. that affects the airline. point -- 0.07%.

>> thanks. iraq taking one of its largest cities as opec's second biggest producer calls for u.s. intervention. ryan is healed with the details. >> good morning. wti is on its way to its biggest weekly gain since december. it is well over $100 a barrel. brent, the benchmark for the rest of the world, it is well over $110, up about 4.5% this week. not too far off the $116 it reached back in september. the big question is, how much of a threat is the violence we are seeing in the north of the country to iraq's oil supplies? that is a question we put to the iraqi oil minister in vienna at opec. he says, not a very big one at

all. have a listen. >> there is no threat. all our production and export is from the south. the south area is very safe. only small activities related to the distribution. >> those comments clearly did not assure investors in oil. price of oil rising. some of that has to do with the comment where he says, little activities. the little activities he is referring to is an oil pipeline that goes to the north and out to the mediterranean sea that carries oil from northern fields. that pipeline had already been blown up but they were supposed to patch it up. now that insurgents are in that area, it is anyone's guess when they will be able to do that. the majority of the fields are in the south of the country. the majority of oil from iraq

flows out of the south. there is at this point no threat whatsoever to those fields. >> pressure mounting on president obama. >> that is correct. the u.s. is considering action. people talking about the possibility of airstrikes. obama listen to president yesterday talking about the matter. >> i don't rule out anything. we do have a stake in making are that these jihadists not getting a permanent foothold in either iraq or syria. the ground,tion on heavy fighting yesterday in tikrit, the hometown of the late saddam hussein. there you had the iraq e-government taking on the insurgents. also still under insurgent control, the city of mosul and falluja. that has been under control of

insurgents for a couple of weeks now. is, will thee here insurgents make good on their threat to enter cities like najaf? if they do that or as they have also threatened, try to make a move on baghdad, the capital, you can expect this crisis to get much bigger. back to you. >> thanks. joining us now to get his perspective is allen, the head of global asset allocation at societe generale. good morning. the big theme for oil markets is clearly what is happening in iraq. is that going to have an impact on equity markets in the near term? equities are falling today. >> in the very near term, one can only listen carefully to what happens. medium term, we need to know that shale oil and shale gas are gaining momentum in the u.s. be u.s. -- there is going to

a glut of supply. i don't think we should be overexcited about what is happening. fairly excitede about equities right now if you look at the stoxx 600. this is the ninth consecutive week of gains. that is the longest winning run in two years. how sustainable is this? >> we can have continuation for a few quarters. the idea is that global growth is gaining momentum. saying that good growth in the u.k. will,. come. also in the u.s., you have a very good winter. >> can investors withstand a normalization of interest rate policy after those comments from carney last night? >> i think it can. from an asset allocation perspective, it is important to say that when you have higher

growth expectations, you have lower expected returns. in between, you have policy tightening. >> stay there, we will have more on your thoughts in just a moment. all the news coming up here on the move. stay with us. ♪

>> welcome back. this is "on the move." we are streaming online, on your phone, apple tv and amazon fire tv. still with us for his views on

the market, the head of strategy at socgen. you released this fascinating report and the report is essentially your second edition of your 10 year equity outlook. the first was published in july, 2009. a lot happened in the intervening five years. >> indeed. if you look at the messages we send early in 2009, we have during the lehman crisis, we few -- andwere very the longer-term. you have five years of outstanding growth in the u.s. expected return must be significantly lower. >> you looked at the expected returns and you are saying the s&p 500 could rise 3% over that 10 year. msci byx and the

roughly 7%. it seems that europe is the place to put your money. >> indeed, because you are out of the big problem and the systemic risks we have. you have acceleration of growth will makeeline which an outstanding performance of european assets. >> what are the headwinds that the u.s. equity market faces? 3% over 10 years is the s&p reaching 2500 versus 1930 right now. there are headwinds aren't there? >> the starting point is a high valuation. you need to have some kind of monetary policy tightening. u.k. central bank will be done by the end of the year. you have margins at an all-time high. if you want to have acceleration of growth, which you are expecting, that is going to be

cap-ex driven. >> which leads us to the asian equity markets. reach previous record highs many thought we would never reach again. you are saying at roughly 5% a year for the nikkei, we could reach those previous highs. >> indeed, i am quite confident on the japan equity index. rise.ve an outstanding you want a change in the structure of capital investment. we need the banks to invest. thatday, we heard from abe the corporate tax rate will come down. that is one element. are you confident that more measures will be announced? i think we need a policy

which is stronger than it is now. you need fiscal policy, the corporate tax rate going down is a must for japan. yen which is the between 100 and 105 against the u.s. dollar, to go to at least 115. >> it has been in a narrow trading range for a number of months now. if investors don't believe the bank of japan now needs to add another dose of monetary policy. do you think it will become apparent later this year that they need more monetary policy? >> the wording they are using means that we do not have visibility on what they are doing. if i was to ask you what is the message, there is a very clear message. the message from the federal reserve is clear. the message from the ecb is clear. the message from the bank of japan is unclear. >> the message from the ecb is

clear as you say, what is the message from the ecb going to lead to outright bond buying? bond buying on the scale we have witnessed from the likes of the boj, the federal reserve and the bank of england? >> it is a weapon. , ifecb has already stated necessary, we will do a bond buying program without stabilization. the balance sheet of the ecb would rise significantly. .f necessary in the meantime, you have u.s. growth acceleration, u.k. acceleration, a new grand coalition spending. i don't believe they will have to use it. >> alain, good to chat to you. good luck to france. i think they are playing honduras in the next couple of days. good luck to france in the world cup. threatendebt could

britain's recovery. rate hikes could come sooner than expected. that is according to mark carney. for more, let's bring in caroline hyde. rise and byl rates how much? what is the view? expectations is that we will see a rate rise in april, 2015. mark carney of course warning that they could come even sooner than that. this is his most hawkish we have ever heard our carney since he has taken over at the bank of england. tot year, he guided a hike 2016. now he is saying it could be sooner. >> there is already great speculation about the exact timing of the first rate hike. this decision is becoming more balanced. it could happen sooner than financial markets currently expect. did he consider it, the npc has no preset course.

the ultimate decision will be driven by labor. it is safe to conclude that the scareing scope for capacity and a host of labor market capacity, pricing and wage indicators should be watched closely to determine how that slack is evolving. >> interesting. how that slack is evolving. earlier, we saw that wage growth is way below what the market had expected. it is slower than inflation. -- heked me how quickly is once again reiterating that when we do get a rate rise, it will be gradual. he is worried this could destabilize the market, could destabilize the recovery we are seeing. people out there are still having hefty debts.

you raise up rates, that could really put a stymie on any consumer spending. for the moment, he is wanting it to be the last line of defense. very clearlyt is controlling the housing market. >> it is. approvalshe mortgage that we have seen increasing over five years. it has just started to fade a little bit. we had warnings from the imf, from the european commission, saying, please get a grip over the housing prices in the u.k. some statistics, first-time buyers currently spend 55% of their earnings on mortgage debt. we have prices eight times average salaries in london. ats is why george osborne the same event was really saying, i realized the concern. they are not immediate but it might destabilize in the long

term. >> does the housing market pose an immediate threat to financial stability today? no, it does not. in the future, yes it could. especially if we don't learn the lessons of the past. we act now to ensure ourselves against future problems before they can materialize, because economic security comes first. >> we act now. we, he means the bank of england and the government. says, you are in charge of demand. you are allowed to suppress mortgage lending. he is giving them legal right to have direct limits to mortgages. perhaps they could limit them as a portion of your salary. we have already seen lloyds and rbs start to impose that. impose loans and value caps on as well. maybe you can only borrow 60% of the value of the house. bank of england is able to

suppress demand. the government is going to tackle supply. they say they're going to funnel more money into getting sites cleaned up, able to build in more areas of the u.k. and drive up supply. it is going to take time. for the time being, we will see an interest rate hike. that is why the pound is reacting so much. >> just sticking with central banks, today the bank of japan maintained its record stimulus as it continues to try to boost inflation. investors have encouraging signs. japan can weather its april sales tax increase. the governor says he expected the tax hike to receive this summer. at the same time, the rebound in the end threatens to undercut the thanks inflation goal. are forecasting traditional using this year. lowda also said he sees risk of the eurozone falling into deflation. betng up, elon musk's bold

on an open source business philosophy. we will explain why he is giving away some of his company's most prized intellectual property for free. ♪

i asked george if i could have a purple light saber. he said no, they are only blue and red. >> that was the actor samuel jackson speaking to olivia

sterns about his role in the star wars franchise. we will bring you more of their conversation later. i want to bring you up to speed with some of the companies on the move. airbus says it will keep an 82 plane order from kingfisher airlines on its books while there is still a chance the carrier might find a buyer. is list price for the pains $6.8 billion. airbus suffered its biggest ever order loss this week when emirates scrapped a deal. there are plans to raise as much as 8 million euros by selling 30% of its online growth unit. is fourt's enterprise euros a share in the ipo. this is part of the plan to target 2 billion euros of net income. in extended climbed trading overnight. forecast for

second-quarter revenue. the company said tangible sales will increase for the first time since 2011 as demand for corporate personal computers picks up. elon musk has never been one to follow the crowd. he is taking a unique approach to patents. he is giving them away. hans nichols is in berlin. explain the reason behind this. what is the reasoning? >> the reasoning, if you can call it that, is that their goal is to transform the entire automotive industry, not necessarily to chase profit. they need to have 1000 flowers bloom. they are going to make available their some 160 patents. it is a big gamble but elon musk is nothing else if not a gambler. here is how he put it in a conference call. fora motors was created

the advent of sustainable transportation. if we lay intellectual property landmines to inhibit others, we are acting in a manner contrary to that goal. the plan tesla has to build a giga factory, three different sites, -- i like his language there. he is talking about landmines. patentsly has some 160 so it is not like they are samsung. still it is a different approach. >> not a lot of patents, is it? >> no. put it in context. look at what samsung has, 47,000 patents. apple is around 4700. microsoft, they are around 20,000 patents. patentsalking about 160 for tesla. forward in the 5000 range but not at the samsung level. >> thanks, hans. up, betting on the

wearable revolution. i speak to the chief executive about the bank accounts around your wrist and u.k. consumer habits. that is next. ♪

>> welcome back to "on the move ." i am mark barton in london. we are 30 minutes into the trading day. its friday. let's see how things are shaping up. stocks are opening a bit lower. it has been a fascinating run of gains for the stoxx 600. it is up for the ninth consecutive week. that is the longest run in almost two years for the benchmark stock index in europe. declines across the board today. investors are watching events in iraq. the ftse, 0.3% lower.

the cac, 0.2% lower. the dax and the ibex in spain also down. these are the bloomberg top headlines today. as i said, oil prices are climbing as escalating violence in iraq threatens supplies from opec's second-biggest producer. kurdish forces seized control of the city of turco. the violence has increased pressure on president obama to launch airstrikes in support of iraq's army. the bank of japan maintained its record stimulus. sentimentin consumer and signs of strength in business investment indicate that japan is weathering a higher sales tax so far. most economists forecast the central bank will increase stimulus at some point this year to boost inflation.

staying with central banks, mark carney says risks remain to the u.k.'s economic recovery, including the strength of sterling. speaking in london last night, he addressed the prospect of a rate increase. >> there was already great speculation about the exact time of the first rate hike. this decision is becoming more balanced. it could happen sooner than financial markets currently expect. to be clear, the mpc as no preset course. the ultimate decision will be driven -- at this point, it is safe to conclude as the mpc has that the remaining scope first spare capacity to be used up before tightening. pricing and wage indicators should be watched closely to determine how that is evolving.

>> on that note, all signs of the economy are pointing to a strengthening recovery. growth, consumer confidence and employment all gaining. is that translating into consumer spending? 'sr more on the u.k. consumer new normal, let's talk to barclaycard chief executive, valerie keating. also, we will talk about this. i don't even wear a watch so you have to persuade someone like me not only to where i watch but also to where what you are -- what is it? i think this is my color, pink. what is it? >> we have heard a lot of the latest futures coming out on mobile devices. you also hear a lot about wearable devices. there is a much broader macro trend. consumers want to make their lives easier. they want all the things they are wearing or carrying to do more for them.

the first thing we rolled out was -- with all the hype you hear about payments, there are few mobile devices that can help you pay when you are in the store. we have these stickers. andcan put it on any phone it can go through -- >> how many are using it? you were the first at the party on many of these things. how many of your customers are using these things? >> as soon as we got them out, we had over a million in issue. now we are taking it to a new level. i have mine on. we see a lot of people wearing these bands to support either a cause, their favorite football team, other types of things. now we are allowing these to pay for them and do more. the one i have on is in support of london pride. upt people can do is sign

with any credit or debit card -- >> it is an open system. >> we are bringing it to the entire u.k. market. >> you can use this on the bus now. you will be able to use them on the tube. you can get your coffee, lunch, groceries. you can top them up very easily online or set a spend level. we are also talking to football clubs. football clubs are interested and we will have something rolled out soon. think about all the season tickets you have. instead of carrying your tickets -- >> fashion retailers are excited as well. >> they want either nice pieces of jewelry and accessories that can go on handbags, keychains, and are quite excited. >> what about security? if i was to wear one of these at a football game, and i lose it, can somebody just start buying

beer at the football stadium that i am paying for? >> it is the same protection you get if you drop or lose one of your cards. call us, let us know and we will take care of that. that, youou drop don't even have any information about you on that. not even your name. it is quite secure. it has got to almost exactly touch the terminal. era of a entering an cash free society? recent data shows this year, non-cash will be more than half of transactions. that is incredible. are we heading in that direction? >> we have been talking about that for well over 25 years. now, these areht more ands than ors. people will be wearing these for certain times but they are still

using cards and cash. >> it is a hugely competitive marketplace. i know barclay card will be with us for many years. mobile payment is massive now. many startups entering your space. how do you keep ahead of them? >> our focus is to make our customers like easier. this push has been to say, how do you make the payment easier? make it seamless. make it part of my everyday life. >> is there a limit to what you could use to pay? what other artifacts around your body could you feasibly pay with? >> i could let u.k. consumers decide and push us in the right direction. >> it is all about technology, isn't it? is your technology better than the competition? what is so good about the barclaycard technology? >> the technology we are using for these is contact technology.

we were on the forefront. now you see every major bank out there issuing contactless cards and merchants trying to roll them out. we are leveraging a technology that is easy for consumers to use, but also easy for merchants. it is embedded in the terminal. they don't need to change the way they are going through this. >> you have been a great success at barclaycard. i gather that barclaycard is the second most profitable unit within barclays aside from the investment bank. profits doubled. i think you got 35.5 million customers. does that put extra pressure on barclaycard to expand, to deliver results? >> i wouldn't exactly say pressure but barclaycard is one of the areas of the bank we are looking to grow. we recently laid out a new strategy for the bank. this is really to position all

areas of the bank for future growth. >> good to chat with you. i will give that to my wife and maybe i will steal one. thank you very much, valerie keating, ceo of barclaycard. break, we to the leave you with a picture of the oil markets. prices on the rise today. our next guest calls it a fear factor driven rally. it could be justified. ♪

>> this is "on the move" on bloomberg television. let's look at some of the top stocks on the move. >> let's get a check in of how the oil markets are affecting certain corporate. we have brent at an eight-month high. ,oncerns about violence in iraq second-biggest producer in opec. concerns about supply disruption. that is affecting airlines and oil companies. oil companies like shell on the rise today because they benefit from a price increase. easyjet down by 3.7%. keytag airlines profitability is how high the oil prices are. -- clearly, easyjet feeling the affects of that. look out for air france and the like on the downside. let's look at how mark carney is affecting the housing market.

concerns that there might be easing in house price exuberance , shall we say, whether we call it a bubble or not, we are seeing that the bank of england has legal right to crimp mortgage lending. that could affect house prices. that could affect house to the clippers. is one of the key losers on the stoxx 600. >> here are some companies on the move today. must reducey they the cost of the wind turbine to the more relevant in china. tas is, ves targeting india and brazil. france's economy minister says he wants to keep alstom intact. in an interview, he said he wants to keep the company in its current form through an alliance. he cited mitsubishi as a serious

alternative. ge pledged to create 1000 jobs in its bid. airbus says it will keep an 80 to play in order from kingfisher airlines on its books. there is still a chance the carrier might find a buyer. the list price for the airliners is $6.8 billion. airbus suffered a loss this week when emirates scrapped a $16 billion deal. the polls is coming up in the top of the next hour. olivia joins us from the newsroom with a look at what is next. good morning. >> good morning. mark carney says he may raise interest rates before investors expect. we are speaking to paul donovan about what all this could actually mean for the markets and whether or not they think the bank of england's new macro prudential tools can cool the ui housing market.

we have the brazilian ambassador to the u.k. on the show. we are talking about the economic impact of the world cup. obviously got off to a shaky start yesterday but they did win the day in the end. finally i will be bringing you excerpts from my conversation with samuel jackson. according to the guinness book of world records, he is the highest grossing film actor of all time. he explained the back story behind that purple light saber in star wars. plus, how he manages to get golf time written into every one of his movie contract. >> thanks. old last film i watched was " boy," a remake of a very old japanese film. it is gruesome. >> one of the hardest working actors in showbiz. >> great actor. thanks, olivia. with a sound victory for the home team, we are going

to hear about the sticky business of panini. not the sandwich, the collectors item. stay with us. ♪

>> welcome back. this is "on the move." let's focus on oil. , brent crude,ti both gaining today. markingence in iraq supply concerns about the

second-biggest producer in opec. joining us now with more insight is the chief analyst at energy aspect. what are the best case scenarios , the worst-case scenarios here? >> i think the best case scenario is that the situation now its contained to where it is. effectively, the militants don't reach baghdad. there is going to be a little disruption and loss because they might have captured a refinery. there are contradictory reports about that. if they have, the oil fields around that would get shut down. >> worst-case scenario? they had towards baghdad? >> exactly. still ahern fields are fair way away, but it is flat land and they can potentially get towards those shia regions. of course they will face more resistance. they don't have that many

personnel on the ground in terms of army or whatever they have. >> give me a price linked to that scenario. $125 for brent. >> $125 is very likely. the worst-case scenario is they really get to the south and all exports are disrupted. in that case, records highs wouldn't be impossible. >> re-.3 million barrels a day last month. >> i still think at the moment, they will consolidate. they also don't want to spread themselves too thin. in the near term, we might see a little bit of a retreat if things don't worsen. this is the worst-case scenario. also the timing is important. spare capacity is already very low. saudi arabia is the only one that has any. they won't --

>> how much could they meet? we were talking earlier this week about opec. you were saying that demand is going to outpace supply. maybe saudi has to put its foot on the pump. >> in theory, they say they have about two and a bit. reality, probably one. we would be lucky to see 1.5. >> was opec lies in keeping its output levels at 30 million barrels a day in retrospect? it is ironic that only happened a day or two ago. kept --ss even if they even if they raised it to 31, they wouldn't be able to meet it. lydia is off-line. there are problems in nigeria. >> could you spread iraq? does it become a regional issue? >> that is the biggest uncertainty and the biggest risk. iraq is already sending troops

to help the iraqi army. it does draw in saudi arabia. this is a civil war that has been going on in syria. that is the biggest risk at the moment, that it becomes a regional sectarian violence war which will change the landscape of the middle east for a long time. >> if that happens, that scenario, $148? those were the highs. >> i wouldn't put that past us. the iraq he is a long-term situation. short-term, i am not convinced they will capture baghdad. any long-term forecast has iraqi at six to 8 million barrels per day in the next few years. >> can the world economy withstand the oil prices creeping up? are these levels already uncomfortable? >> i think $110 is ok.

that, wething beyond are just about seeing a recovery. china is not doing particularly great. any price increase is going to -- >> boost inflation. >> absolutely. i think that is why it is going to be damaging. >> good to chat to you. thanks for coming back. turning to the world cup, brazil has gained what could have been a huge upset. the home team beat croatia 3-1. the hundred million dollar striker cored two of the three goals. football fans around the world are tuning in this month to the biggest sporting event on the planet. some of them do more than just watch. they are deeply invested in the collectible stickers made by panini. i was a big fan.

we took a look behind-the-scenes. ♪ >> for some kids and their dads, completing the legendary panini world cup sticker album is more important than the tournament itself. with 640 stickers to collect this year, it is a task for both customer and company. billions ofroduced stickers on the world cup since the 70's. working on the next world cup the day the winners leave the cup. >> try not to feel too much sympathy. completing this collectors item could lead you in a sticky situation. according to mathematicians in

an average fan would need to buy 899 tax to complete the album, setting you back over $600. panini sales have been rising steadily over the last decade. in world cup years, sales have surged. 2014 should be a bumper year. one of the reasons the continued sales could be the elusive player, the legendary rare sticker that plagues the perfect collection and drives buyers around the bend. however, panini insists it is all down to chance. >> our strategy is to create no rare stickers at all. we do produce equal quantities and as a consequence of these, if you find on some market a sticker which people regard as rare, that is what in italian we would say -- [speaking italian] -- it is not true.

>> try telling that to the kids on the playground. >> stay with bloomberg television. olivia sterns is back with "the pulse" next. let's have a peek of what is happening to global equity markets. iraq is weighing on sentiment. we are one hour into the trading session. we are in a run for the stoxx 600. the longest winning run in almost two years. today, stocks are lower. about 0.6%.n by 40 down in paris, cac by 0.5%. the dax in germany and the ibex in spain also lower. spain playing the netherlands today. that is the biggest game in the world cup today. tomorrow, it is all about italy. all about england. sorry to be biased. come on, england. i think it will be 1-1. see you monday.

♪ . .

>> fears of a civil war. insurgents sweep through northern iraq, claiming its largest city. oil prices surge. sooner than you think. bank of england governor mark carney says he may raise interest rates sooner than investors anticipate. >> it could be sooner than financial markets currently expect. >> and eyes on the prize. john malone and discovery communications team up to seek a major stake in f-1. welcome