tv Bloomberg Surveillance Bloomberg June 16, 2014 6:00am-8:01am EDT
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system, taking a legal address in ireland. siemens gets ready to take on general electric, making a bid assets.om's energy this is bloomberg "surveillance," live from new york. monday, june 16, i am scarlet fu. joining me, jonathan ferro and brendan greeley. is on location in washington. tom, you are in the capital because of a conversation with an imf managing director. >> speaking to madame lagarde about the u.s. economy, front and center for the international monetary fund. before that, and important update from ian bremmer of eurasia group. yous not a washington that know is quiet. forget about quiet. former senator from new
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hampshire will join us. we will speak about much after the eric cantor resignation. and of course, washington focus on baghdad. let's get to jonathan ferro with our morning brief. >> here's the news from overnight, china's central bank extended the reserve requirement cut to industrial bank co and another bank, trying to support economic growth without unleashing stimulus. a.m., empire 8:30 manufacturing. 10:00 a.m., housing market index. no big earnings but here are two items. rates lighting at the tomb of the unknown soldier -- wreath laying at the tomb of the unknown soldier. ghana versus usa, i feel like americans are starting to love soccer. >> they are not caring about the american team but they are watching the better teams, that is good news.
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>> ghana give us some trouble before. 2006, a tough group for you guys. it is a better team now. >> juergen klinsmann, the german coach of the american soccer team -- that tells you a lot already -- he has basically given this year up. saying if we make it out of the first round, that is our goal. he has guy with a lot of young players and lowered expectations. less he has an amazing psychological game, trust his instincts. >> six :00 p.m. tonight. let's get a data check. down, paring losses slowly. s&p futures down by six points. buying in treasuries, a reflection of risk aversion. % on the tenure. given eye on the british pound, since the0, the first third quarter of 2009.
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last week, mark carney making rates couldgesting be higher. >> on european bloomberg, we had a guest suggesting investors overreacted to what mark carney said. what mark carney did was deliver it and in a speech, it was not an off-the-cuff remark. it is a rapid turnaround. you see it moving the pound sterling writer. ,eeping an eye on brent crude $113 a barrel. stories making the front page, we need to start with iraq. troops trying to halt the advance of sunni rebels who have been capturing chunks of northern iraq. they were on their way to baghdad, that has slowed down. iraq says forces have killed hundreds of rebels. >> the pictures over the weekend that have come out are distressing. >> gruesome. >> was the reaction?
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the west is heavily politicized, the u.k. in the u.s. do not want troops on the ground. but do they want to let instability spread, they have got to do something. >> with something like this, talking about the reaction in the u.s., there are two ways to think about it. you think you can do something or you think you can look like you are doing something. i don't think the u.s. is doing anything other than looking like it is doing something. it is clear to barack obama, to lindsey graham, that there is only hope of political posturing around what is not going to be done in the u.s. >> the question is whether or not that will involve iran. ukraine and russia, tensions flaring. fight.tural gas, another ukraine says russia has cut off natural gas. you have been looking at this, gazprom is at the center. >> everybody in the eu are heavily dependent on gas coming out of russia. from a markets perspective, we have talked about ukraine for the last few months and most of
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the year. markets are shrugging their shoulders at this. a new one on the radar in the shape of iraq. do we care about it for a couple weeks and then in two months' time stop talking about? is a political issue but not for the markets? that is what people are starting to digest. >> there's a long-term economic for ukraine. we do not really know, the numbers are not transparent, how much ukraine subsidizes its natural gas for citizens. we might the about to find out. to the imf has been asking ukraine for 10 years to lower its natural gas subsidies. they are about to do it the hard way. >> we will continue this conversation. a company story, medical device .aker medtronic buying covidien almost $43 billion in cash and stock. covidien makes hospital supplies like surgical staplers. this is about a tax inversion. >> how much cash is overseas for
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american companies? $2 trillion will stop >> and growing. >> general electric, over $50 billion. they are trying to put money to work. the question is again and again, taxnot cut the corporate rate in this country and let them bring money home? then they will not be pushed into these deals. but there is a happy dance in dublin. this is a vindication of their 20 your tax strategy. this says how utterly futile any kind of tax harmonization is going to be. germany has been begging ireland to raise tax rates, not going to happen. >> the u.s. scratches its head. those are our front page stories. tom, out to you. a conversation with ian bremmer is coming up. focused on agton rock, we saw that on the sunday talk shows. moving americans out of baghdad and out of the embassy.
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this is washington beginning discussions with tehran. odd weekend with reports of atrocities by jihadists. 2000 three. ian bremmer is president of eurasia group and understand that u.s. and iran need each other. thank you for being with us. let's talk about the view from tehran. why does tehran want to speak with the u.s. jacob >? ministerputy foreign came out and said there was no need for cooperation between iran and the u.s. on iraq. there is no reason not to see negotiations but the iranians do not want to cause an level of distress with the saudis that could make it harder for them to get the deal done. the iranians are interested in finishing a deal soon, by july 20, on nuclear issues.
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which will allow them an enormous amount of economic benefit. anything that distracts from that is a problem in the near term for iran. engagement, sure, substantive action is a bridge too far. >> how close are we to sectarian or civil war and iraq? seeing is what we are a move towards disintegration and fragmentation in iraq. isis forces have said that they are moving towards baghdad. serious fight there. the reason why all of these armed forces in the iraqi army half blood away in mosul, tikrit, and other cities in the north, they are in sunni territory. they are overwhelmed in terms of numbers. theyis well trained but have a local population that does not support them.
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it is dangerous for them to stick around on the ground. that is different from the situation in baghdad. dangert think there is a of baghdad following. there is a danger of the cursed him -- there is a danger of kurdistan becoming autonomous. there is a great danger of an islamic citsunni caliphate that warss the iraq and syria together. that is the concern for europeans and americans. weif we did not have iraq, would have ukraine. we can worry about that, gazprom moment. this morning. how critical are hydrocarbons to the immediate debate for kiev, further eastern ukraine, and for moscow? term. much in the near i think the markets are over eight on energy generally. oil comes from
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the shia south, not disrupted by violence. ukraine and russia have ongoing disputes. it is not the first time they have cut it off, it is in the summer and the ukrainians have stockpiled. the russians don't want to cut it off to the europeans and the europeans will engage in talks between the two sides. right now, the bigger issue is that you have another 50 ukrainians dead, shot down by a military transport plane shot down. and poroshenko, the ukrainian president, there is a military presence he cannot respond to because the russians will escalate. i think the energy story in both aaq and ukraine is a bit of sideshow. the instability in both of these countries with nobody from outside the region willing to the storyhat is long-term for the markets. >> ian bremmer, thank you. >> we will check in with you later. you are missing out on our guest host for the hour is richard
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from pimco. he is also professor of economics at columbia university. ian bremmer talked about how the energy story is a sideshow. nevertheless, crude oil climbing to long-term highs. is this the inflation scare? this is a know if sideshow. we have had a pretty big move in oil, oil has been in a range for three years. right now, the markets have what i call a boots on the ground approach to thinking about these. if it doesn't look like there is going to be u.s. boots on the ground in a country, these tend to be one week or one-month stories. that is where we are now. let's acknowledge, there are serious flashpoints in the global economy. markets are relaxed now. obviously, there are tipping points that are on details that we need to be aware of. >> something we will monitor, richard clarida for the hour on "surveillance."
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>> good morning, bloomberg "surveillance." from new york city and washington. there is the capitol, focusing on the debris of the eric cantor regisn resignation. speaking with christine lagarde, managing director of the imf. this is the day, the imf looks at the u.s. i will speak to her about the political economics of the u.s. they will be critical
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let's get to new york city, here is scarlet fu. >> we will check in with you later. this is bloomberg "surveillance," here with jonathan ferro and brendan greeley. adam johnson is off. company news, the battle for alstom is heating up. expecting siemens to make an official bid for alstom's energy unit in the next couple hours. this might increase pressure on ge to improve its existing $17 billion offer. life from munich with the latest. the backstory is that the french government has been pushing germany's siemens to make a bed. will this be one made under duress? i think that ultimately the debate is something siemens wants to make, the conditions of the bid are the thing that are under duress. how it is manifesting itself. the fact that they are doing as a joint bid with mitsubishi shows the elements of the
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business that siemans wants, the gas turbines. ge has bid for the entire company excluding the train business. >> i look at the siemens bid with mitsubishi, it is pretty complex. which offer would be more compelling for the french government? at the end of the day, is that is what is going to take to make the deal, get them on board? the thing that is different from this deal compared to others in the states, you really have to convince the french government of its validity. they want to retain the nuclear business, which is a huge part of france's strategic thinking. and the train business, a big part of the french identity. once you have convinced the the factvernment about that those businesses will remain in france, then it comes down to the shareholders and we're talking about cash. >> something about the spectacle of jeff immelt and ge going in
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front of the french national assembly and promising to retain jobs. one of the things i'm having trouble understanding, is this important for the french economy? or is it just important to the government? to hollande, who has had a really bad year. >> is a political question. a strategic, economic question. the really loud voice has been the economy and industry minister. one of the more left-wing members of the french administration. a's really trying to make name for himself. >> what is ge's response? where is it likely to be flexible -- high stack, john guarantees, joint ventures -- guarantees,joint joint ventures? bonds ge canere is think of, jeff immelt alluded to it in front of french lawmakers
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and spoke about giving the rails signaling business to alstom. the siemens cash offer was billion fromout $4 the siemens upside, and almond from mitsubishi as well. guarantees and giving business to a french economy in terms of units, which will remain friends, those will be the fiscal elements -- the two helmets. >> if you are a ge or alstom sh areholder, which is more compelling? >> the argument siemens has made is that if alstom is left as just a trail maker, what the ge deal would do, it would be hard. this has been a lossmaking business, even if they get control of the siemens train business, siemens is thinking about offering alstom its trains
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business to combine them. it will not be able to get the financing to build these trains. they valuable assets will not be part of alstom anymore and that raises questions for bondholders. >> something way will monitor. in thel bid could come next couple hours from mitsubishi and siemens. thank you. in europe, welcome to my world. you cannot make a deal, the government tries to block it. capitalism is dead. we get to our twitter question of the day. should the u.s. replace the country hosting the 2022 world cup? >> it will cost a lot of money. >> air-conditioned stadiums, come on. ♪
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>> this is bloomberg "surveillance." tom is on location in washington, d.c. thes get to john with latest. >> kenya blames islamic militants for a attack on a coastal resort town. a group known as al-shabaab is suspected. the same group that claimed responsibility for an attack on nairobi last september. talks over the future of irans nuclear program resumed today vienna. the u.s. and eu want to limit yuan's program. the miamieat for
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heat. the san antonio spurs beat the heat, taking the series 4-1. miami has won the last two titles. that made my weekend. >> i really doubt it. we will make you like it. the name originates in england. >> let's move onto morning must read. tom has a morning must read. >> when you look at all that is going on in iraq and reading the different essays on iraq, let's move away to a little lightness. michael lewis, you know him from the upper are on -- the uproar on high-frequency trading. on brazillionaires.
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if you are a brazillionaire, call in and make some news. . nice take by michael lewis >> would've the fascinating has been the constant threat to go gulf that they never make good on. we are going to pull back our support for the catholic church. in john galt?as take our n gog to home. they never do. they need this to make money. i cannot handle -- >> one of these days, it is
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going to happen. the best advice from michael tois was to go find a child abuse and that might make you feel better. >> a facetious morning must read. check it out on bloomberg.com. coming up on "surveillance," inc rate decision coming out today's. we speak with pimco's richard clarida. pimco's newin with neutral. this is bloomberg "surveillance," we will be right back. ♪
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with madame christine lagarde, managing director at the international monetary fund. they look at the u.s. we talked to her about austerity and i talked to christine lagarde about the european commission. good morning, everyone. this is bloomberg "surveillance," i am tom keene. we will check in with you later. let's get your data check. futures pointed to a lower open, down by almost five points. buying of treasuries and other face assets. 10 year yield coming in at two point 59%. euro weaker versus the dollar. elevated oil prices, that is on the continued violence in isis iraq -- in iraq. and a new leg in the fight over natural gas between ukraine and russia. >> sterling, that is the big one. >> it has come down a little for
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me. >> hawkish remarks from bank of england's mark carney that rates may hike sooner than the market is expecting. acura, the fomc decision is out on thursday. how does what is happening in the u.k. reflect future moves by the fed in the u.s.? pimco'sclarida is global security advisor. i am digesting this. i sat in the press conference of the inflation report last month. the man standing in front of me was not the man at the speech last week. he was still pushing back against expectations of an early rate rise. what is your take on what happened last week? >> the u.k. economy has been strong for a year, stronger than the bank of england. there's also pressure on england. the imf and others are saying there is another housing bubble. i was in london last week, it is expensive. you have to understand that
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central bank governors have to be very careful in communications. even that the data is changing daily, they are only giving in frequent speeches. what we found out is that we have ratcheted up the rhetoric to get a sooner rate hike. the market has been pricing in february 2015 for a first rate hike, now they are pricing in november 2014. he wanted to bring market expectations in line with where the bank of england committee is. >> he just told you you were having a tapered hand from. -- taper tantrum. >> i didn't say that. >> i am wondering about communications, it has been something the central banks have been obsessed with getting right for the last four or five years. they have been terrible. they used to be that you did not say anything. have they gotten better, do we have that practices in terms of communications? communicaterying to a more complicated message. in most cases, they are
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communicating a committee not an individual decision. part of the difference is in the u.s. there is more commentary from other members of the fomc. for example, when ben bernanke was chair, he had a simple message, we are not hiking rates. they came up with 18 different ways to say it. janet yellen has a more complex message. over the next several years they will begin to hike. when, by how much, over what metric. it is more complex from a committee with 19 participants. they are learning by doing. >> this is the issue, mark carney came to the job 12 months ago. he turned around and said rates will not rise until 2016. now he is thinking the end of the year. the problem ultimately is how flawed for guidance is. this was meant to be a policy for mainstream, not wall street. if you are listening to these messages and do not think there will be hikes in two years and an overnight the bank of england comes at with this, here's the one for the u.s. and the federal reserve.
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janet yellen speaks later this week, can we take her word for anything? we have just seen a major central bank to a 180. ofthere are different types forward guidance. i wrote a piece on pimco.com >> shameless plug. >> most central banks have moved away from calendar date guidance to guidance based on the flow of data. this comes down to describing their reaction function. what connie would say is that the data is better than we thought two years ago or a year ago and the hike will be sooner. yellen has positioned herself to calendar from the and towards the flow of macro data. she has given herself some flexibility. if you are too flexible, is there any way to communicate a message, that is the challenge. >> pimco has put out a new
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neutral ceases, which a lot of people agree with. interestthat rates will not return to normal levels anytime soon. that is accepted, but what is disputed is what the benchmark rate will be. engel has 2%, black bark -- pim andas 2%, blackrock jpmorgan at about 3%. what is the thesis? >> all the central banks and the fed wanted 2% inflation. all the focus is on the real interest rate, the after inflation return. the real interest rates central banks were aiming for was 2%. almost everyone now agrees that going forward the real return on cash will be lower. a year ago, they were aiming for 2% real.
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think you have comments from mr. dudley and john williams, charlie been at the bank of england. this is a process. larry summers talks about secular stagnation. the basic view is that a post crisis global economy with an overhang of leverage and slow potential growth rates, look at the cbo marking down growth in the u.s. there's going to be a lower real return on cash. all things considered, our view is that that real return is going to be less than 1% and closer to zero. certainly than 2%. >> in the mansion house speech, carney kept saying how much of a value partner he has in the u.k. that is something you do not hear in bernanke or yellen's speeches. they do not have a partner for fiscal policy. does that give them the ability to be more flexible? does that give the u.k. more options than we have here? >> excellent question. the u.k. has pursued a different
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approach than the set. whenever the u.k. has wondered in to the neighborhood of fiscal policy, they have gotten explicit indemnification from the treasury. we are doing fiscal policy but we want to get out of it, you indemnify us against losses, the fed has not taken that approach. that happened with the funding for lending scheme in the u.k. and also their quantitive easing program. there is no right or wrong answer. in the u.s., there is more of a grey area and the lines between monetary and fiscal policy. fore have high expectations the fed because they're the only game in town. then the u.k., whenever standing government presents a budget, it either passes or you get an election. in the u.s., the budget is a starting point for a stalemate. in a parliamentary system, budgets are much simpler to get enacted. >> we have made it as complicated as we can. richard clarida, global strategic advisor at pimco. coming up, the labor market.
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the host of the 2022 world cup. at 6:00 versus ghana p.m. tonight. >> a big game, should they replace them? brendan? >> for the players, yes, it will be too hot. fromis is what we learn the england game. playing in brazil is different. the cramping in the england team is something we have to know. >> no cramping. it is -- tweet us, @bsurveillance. is on location in washington. john has our top headlines. >> iraq says the military tryingd islamic rebels to capture territory north of baghdad. control ofain territory claimed by the al qaeda splinter group, who says they have executed 1700 people.
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russia has cut off natural gas supplies to ukraine. talks to resolve a pricing dispute fell apart last night. once a $2 billion payment for past bills, which ukraine has refused to pay since april. it was not even close in the u.s. open, germany's martin 8 strokes. by he is only the seventh player to lead after all four rounds. those are your top headlines. does anybody pay any attention to the u.s. open? >> no. >> there's a hockey game friday night. >> no tiger, no one cares. >> single best chart. we are obsessed with measuring who has got a job and who does not. taking a look at people who are not in the workforce and why. economists call these guys marginally attached, they worked
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in the last year but not last month. brandon re -- brendan greeley, explain. >> janet yellen was asked what measures should you look sad in order to make decisions. marginally was attached. what you are looking at right now is people who have had a job in the last year but have not looked for work in the last month. they are officially counted as unemployed. it is possible that they could have a job. there are a couple reasons, they have gone back to school or they are sick. the two biggest reasons why not, the white part of the chart -- discouraged. they feel like they have been discriminated against or got the wrong training. they feel like they are not cut out for the job market. is "other."ea usually seen as synonymous with discouraged. if you look into that more, those people are very likely --
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they either have transportation issues or childcare issues. we shoulda fed said take these together since they moved together, that is monetary policy saying we have limited tools. the people who can be helped by fiscal policy are the people who are discouraged because childcare care is too expensive and transportation is too expensive. 8,000 people who feel like they could work but working as too expensive. >> richard clarida, this goes back to the idea that monetary policy can only do so much. the fed can only do so much before government policy makers need to take over. politicians are not doing that. is aiming for an unemployment rate of around 5.5%. butbecause the fed is cruel because you cannot get unemployed below that structural level unless you change structural impediments. that reflects those impediments and can be adjusted by policy.
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absolutely. that is why central banks, traditionally, are leery of to targetingd in unemployment. there is a lot that monetary policy can do. look in the euro area, structural unemployment tends to be higher and will remain higher. not because the ecb is doing a bad job, it is a higher structural level. >> as janet yellen looks at more complex ways to measure the labor market, is it helpful to distinguish between discouraged and others? always understand more. the key thing about central banks is that although the problem is difficult, it is not impossible. in particular, if they structural rate of unemployment is lower than the u.s.'s 5.5, what that means is on average when you get to that unemployment rate, inflation is still below target. if inflation is still below 2%, the fed will want to continue to support a lower them to. looking at inflation.
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>> usually when we talk about structural unemployment and means people are not in the right place or don't have the right training. half of the people who are structurally unemployed are in the right place and have the right training but they cannot work because of structural factors like childcare. that is something we don't even talk about in the u.s. that is something policy wise that other democracies have been able to take care of. to provide affordable childcare. in japan.doing that of the impediments in the japanese labor market, especially to get women, is that issue. eras is to provide enhanced child support. >> an untapped resource for japan's economy. richard clarida, our guest host for the hour. coming up, obama says he will not be sending u.s. troops to iraq. still weighing his options. we will weigh the cost of his actions, next. ♪
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later this morning i will be interviewing christine lagarde of the international monetary fund. a conversation with madame lagarde on the u.s. she has been very critical of the last two years or three years. low.g a more constructive talking to her later this morning on bloomberg television. >> this is bloomberg "surveillance." here with jon ferro and brendan greeley. adam is off. let's get company news from the files of "bloomberg west." analysts projecting blackberry to report more revenue on -- more revenue losses thursday. since taking over in november, ceo john chen has cut expenses by 30% through layoffs. he has scaled back on marketing. american towers making a billion-dollar bet on brazil's mobilephone sector. agreeing to buy br tower in brazil. u.s. companies have been betting that wireless providers in mind america's biggest market will need more capacity. apple planning to release a smart watch in the fourth
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quarter, according to "the new york times." saying apple observers are counting on a smart watch to be the next gadget. that is this morning's company news from the files of "bloomberg west." hughley for brazil soon. >> oh my gosh, the smart watch. buys it when somebody else does it, apple releases it and we all need it. we will line up and get one. give me a break. >> there's the samsung watch. >> i will not be around the corner with those people buying a smart watch. >> jon ferro, been there and done that. >> jon pays people to sit in line for him. back to washington. >> in washington, a washington of change. a bipartisan call as congress moves on from the air canada feet. defeat.the eric cantor the likelihoodon
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of legislation. maybe a return to sequestration and government shutdown? we have seen this bomb with the cantor primary, what is the likelihood we could see disruption? three components -- what is the short-term disruption. a couple near-term policy issues. one is the export-inport -- the export-import bank. is next year, are we going to have debt ceiling brinksmanship? that is difficult to decide until we see the election results.that is what investors are pricing in. >> over the weekend, three republicans are vying for whiop. -- for whip. isntify why the president important? s frank underwood in
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"house of cards." this is the person has to find votes for what we are talking about. steve cooley'-- steve scalise, head of the republican study committee. it is as if the republicans are going to get their establishment der, and conservatives will get the whip. they're saying let's not mess anything up. then you will see further .lection leadership >> you have changed so much in washington, here is the reality. six months ago or three months 1940 1940 were headlines about a budget. -- pentagon budget. bythe budget has defined $100 billion.
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always geopolitical tension coming back. what is going on in russia and ukraine that is getting less attention because of iraq. gas,ng about shutting off crossing borders with tanks, and shooting down planes. the president is trying to find a solution to likely within iraq . debate in washington separate from moving an aircraft carrier to the persian gulf? have a situation where the budget is declining and your needs are growing all over the world. you have a small government conservatives saying do not spend more money. we're going to have to learn how to prioritize. look at the tangible budgets, you pay attention to the ballet of washington. how has the secretary's book tour? >> it was a rough week last week. a rough week last week. that is part of the game. she has been gone for six months to nine months.
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she will start getting her footing. questions about whether she would be challenged on a primary. >> will she be damaged by what we see in baghdad and outside baghdad? a positionyou are in of government, you take responsibility for that. my take away from the cantor election, people are saying what we are doing is not working, let's have changed. she would be part of that process if that trend continues to 2016. that is a lifetime in politics, it remains to be seen. somey news talking about form of aerial bombs in baghdad. i do not want to overplay that. what is the to do list for the white house this morning? >> the to do list is to get the kurds, the sunnis, and the shiites working together within iraq. then figuring out where they can do airstrikes. as they go into these villages, the rebels are starting to mix in with the populations.
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it is becoming harder to do those attacks. >> thank you. onn will join us later bloomberg "surveillance," to continue this conversation. >> we are here with richard clarida of,". final thoughts. the set on course to and bond purchases. 60% chance of an increase by next year. >> i think it will come down to inflation. press conference, janet yellen said about six months, which would be the june meeting. >> maybe the markets are pricing in too soon. richard clarida of pimco joining us. indexorex report, dollar marginally higher, just above the 80 line. yen strong against major currencies. british pound hooking above
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iraqi forces tried to stop islamic wrestles. -- rebels. takeover inn ireland. and siemens gets ready to take on general electric, teaming up with partners to make its own bid. good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance," live from our world headquarters in new york. i am scarlet fu. "bloomberg businessweek's" brendan greeley. adam johnson is off for the day. tom keene on location in washington this morning. you are in town because of a certain interview with the imf managing director. >> christine lagarde looking at the united states today. a conversation with madam lagard
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e later this morning. phil mattingly will join us, and johnson junior, former senator from new hampshire. former senator from mantra. let's get to our morning brief with jonathan ferro. >> a reserve requirement cut as officials try to support growth without damaging stimulus. geopolitics and all the rest -- china still a concern for investors. a: 30 a.m., empire manufacturing, and then at night: 15, industrial production and capacity utilization. and that rebounded off with any hp housing market index. tomb of the unknown soldier for the 150th anniversary of tery,gton national ceme and the one we can get excited about, team usa versus ghana,
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6:00 p.m. eastern time. >> we have had some problems with them in the past, ghana. >> are u.s. thrilled as you say you are? >> i will get behind team usa. >> say "soccer." >> soccer. >> so good! >> medtronic agrees to buy the videos allowing it to become the biggest company had to skip u.s. tax system. medtronic will take a legal address in ireland, where the taxes are lower. siemens is planning to challenge bid for thetric's alstom energy business. it would leave it with the french company must gas turbines. -- company's gas turbines. according to people familiar
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with this matter, u.s. authorities are demanding more than $10 billion for the french practice of the claims it violated u.s. sanctions. last month all bnp told shareholders that the settlement the $101more than billion set aside. it is a pretty large gap. >> it is an iraq policy in total disarray. from 2000-pointing -2000 9, 2014. u is a republican from new hampshire and his criticism is equal opportunity as we look at the events over the weekend. phil mattingly joining us as well to give us perspective on a very busy weekend that we saw in washington. senator from new hampshire essentially spans the iraq war. take us back to january a's in 2003 and onto march 2003.
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what does that look like in the first is the war? >> well, look, you had a generally bipartisan support for these of force resolution -- the use of force resolution for the invasion of iraq. the initial days were very successful. the second phase was the rebuilding phase. there things got much more controversial, partly because of a lack of success, lack of focus, lack of execution, and poor decisions made disbanding elements of the army keyrastructure that were so ek to keeping peace. the 2005-2007 phase the war became very unpopular. was the surge, very unpopular, tough political decisions, that's a tactic to -- but as a tactic it really work. leading up to this point was a decision by the obama investors
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obviously, -- the obama administration, obviously, to remove all forces from iraq, and the fundamental problem is that they did it without a coherent long-term strategy and without a status of forces agreement. there is no governing agreement between the united states and iraq as to whether and how forces might be used in a crisis like this. >> phil mattingly, bring us through the weekend as we look at these institutional failures and the institutional reality. >> i think i am focused on what much of washington is focused on , if the president is going to take action, what will that actually look like? the president was in southern california over the weekend and we saw multiple steps taking place over the last 3 days in terms of the u.s. military moving an aircraft carrier into the region, the embassy staff start to draw down a little bit because of the threat. they sent u.s. marines to the embassy to protect that. what we know now, much like the
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senator said, they were not a lot of contingency plans in place for the administration to consider. we know that they have drones in place, starting to gather intelligence. if airstrikes are on the table, what do they strike and when do they do it? >> the thrust of this topics conversation is does the president need congress to act now? does he need to have a dialogue with the senate and with the house as he affects executive policy? >> i think most senators would argue he doesn't need it as a legal matter but you should have it as a matter of building consensus and understanding as to what our approach and our strategy here. only complex, because not did they not have a governing structure and a strategy that has been worked out with the existing maliki government in iraq, but there is really no strong relationship with the kurdish government in the northern part of the country that is also part of the dialogue. >> any interest in your focus on capitol hill in the kurds to the
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north, or for that matter, mr. iran orr the east to are they said they focused on how we deploy u.s. troops and what do the drones look like? >> there is a focus on regional stability on the whole. you look at turkey as a whole, but also iran, we heard that multiple and ministration officials are talking about leaving open the possibility of working with iran on some type of response here. iranians seem to be in the same place, although we already are from his spokesman this morning from iran saying this was not an option. how that plays out, capitol hill is very focused on iran right now. will focus on this all through bloomberg television this morning as the news unfolded bag an -- unfolds on baghdad and through the region. >> looking forward to that conversation. summer is typically a slow time in the year on the ipo calendar. our guest is richard trousdale and he says we are in the middle of the song is ipo market since 2000.
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he is a partner at a law firm and has completed more ipo's by u.s. companies than any other lawyer in 2013, working on deals including michael kors, taking them public. give us a look at the ipo market, the strongest since 2000, which invites all sorts of the mayor bubble conditions -- comparisons to bubble conditions. >> it is the types of companies you have and evaluations. everyone in hindsight agrees that things got out of control during the internet bubble. currently we are much better in terms of the types of companies and the more restraint on people pushing company forward. alibaba, considering are they buying into international growth, or is it just the potential for growth within china? growing in that market and growing on the internet about a completely different jobs. >> i think they're getting both. global sales are significant version of what is driving it.
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sales are bigger than amazon and ebay combined. this isn't a premature start a premature start up company just focused on the asia play. this is a global company that is a dominant player eri. >> we are told that the amazon-ebay blend out of china -- if jeff bezos took a stake out of a soccer team i would be confused. is it another case of a chinese company that u.s. investors are not going to get? >> i don't think so. it is a global marketplace. there was a time when there was very few and we had a lot of successful ones. the chinese issue going back to the u.s. market, and u.s. investors are open to it, understanding it is the largest market in the world and you cannot hide your head in the sand. >> is an offering of alibaba's size good or bad? >> i personally think it is good, that anything that gets in the ipo market
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is a good thing. other people worry that it will suck up liquidity in the market. it stands to be the largest ipo in history. pulling $18 billion of ipo liquidity out of the market could be adverse, particularly for anyone else in the industry. >> it depends on your view of whether the pie is growing -- >> exactly. >> or if the high is existing. let's get you a quick data check. futures pointing to a low open right now. yields coming in at 2.58%. keep your eye on brent crude, approaching 113 a barrel. >> this is your twitter question of the day.
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>> this is "bloomberg surveillance." i am scarlet fu with jonathan ferro and brendan greeley. adam is off today, tom is in washington. , we areday in brazil taking on the rifle -- rival ghana and the world cup of soccer. soccern ferro, as i say as many times as possible, usa is a tough division, isn't it? >> it is, but the sport in this
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country is getting bigger and bigger. the biggest jump was from this country right here. the sad thing about the world cup this year as no one is talking about it off the pitch. nobody's talking my 2018, either. they are talking about 2022, qatar, whether it was rigged, whether sponsors should pull out, i'm whether ultimately this country, the u.s., should take the world cup from qatar. interestis tremendous in soccer and the middle east and one of the things that is fascinating to watch is that it may be possible for qatar to buy soccer. the fact that adidas is hesitant about sponsoring the cup there -- adidas has been a longtime sponsor of fifa. they are realizing that they are until 2030 with of this contract and they have a reputational risk and they will make that felt. >> is fifa going to be dragged
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pushed into moving the world cup to the usa? >> i think there will be an internal investigation i cannot find a signal stakeholder -- not >> i think it is all over but the shouting. >> when you look at the big networks who paid all the money to posted on television in 2022 and then we are told it might not be in the summer, it might be in the winter, are you guys going to wash you will top or the playoffs -- are you guys going to watch the world cup for the playoffs? >> the head of fifa has overly signaled he thinks it was a mistake. it is all over but the shouting. >> you are going to go to brazil in the next couple days to see greece versus the ivory coast. >> and a second-round game. it as a growth market for soccer because it has not benefited at all. -- not penetrated at all. >> the thing to watch is nbc's contract with english premier
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league and fox's contract with the german boat as late. they're looking at numbers we don't see and the fact that they're willing to make investments means they see soccer growth here. look at the national league in europe. >> it is about changing demographics in the u.s. as well. usa versus ghana at 6:00 p.m. today. ukraine says russia cut natural gas supplies. we will see the ripple effects next.
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adam johnson is off today, tom is in washington. jon has our top headlines this morning. islamic blames militants for a deadly attack on a coastal resort town. 48 people were killed when a group open fire. the group known as al-shabab is suspected. talks over the future of iran's nuclear program resumed today. an interim deal expires next month. the u.s. and the eu want to limit iran's programs so i can't make nuclear weapons and -- so it can't make nuclear weapons. and there will be no threepeat for the miami heat. the san antonio spurs won the nba title last night to take the series 4 games to 1. miami had won the last 2 titles. i got behind the spurs last week. what happened? the spurs won.
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>> congratulations. i think it was a ghost in the room, and the ghost is michael jordan. can the bond jame -- can lebron james beat michael jordan? maybe not yet. maybe we will have to wait for a rebirth. >> the question, too, is whether lebron james could become michael jordan to nike. >> what they said is they are basically moving away from tying a shoe irrevocably to a certain person. you have got to produce off -- proved yourself long-term and they're not as willing as they were with michael jordan to throw a bunch of money. >> lebron james is sitting at home wondering what went wrong. >> wearing his fake glasses. >> radical sunni forces have swept through iraq, taking over mozilla coming within --
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taking over mosul and coming within 100 miles of baghdad. the oil market close out last week with its biggest weekly gains so far this year as islamist fighters extend their advanced. joining us is the chief oil energy analyst at energy aspects. socgen says that if iraq you production is affected brent may go to a range of $100 to $125 a barrel. if that is the case, how long does it stay there? volatility is what everyone is concerned about. >> you will see a significant upside in prices if production is impacted. most of the impact has been in the north were less than 10% of iraq's production is. foreign workers are being evacuated. what is important is the context in which the timing of the iraq you production -- iraqi potential production is lost.
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the saudi's are going to increase their production because of demand. if any southern iraq you production is impacted, $125 could be here for some time and i could argue we could go higher. >> it is jonathan here. rent is $110 a barrel. what price for brent is the tipping point, whether the u.s. and the eu look at the situation in iran and listen those sanctions -- loosen those sanctions? > i think that is a very good question and we have already heard over the weekend a slightly different noises because you have the july 20 deadline for the nuclear deal. so far there was a lot of problems and they were talking thet typical stuff about number of centrifuges, iran wasn't willing to give as many as the west wanted. iransomehow and suddenly, is required to control what is going on in iraq, and you might see certain noises being made that there might be a deal and some sanctions might be lifted, even if oil sections aren't
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necessarily just yet, they will be more talks around this just to make sure that iran is on the u.s.' side. >> this is brandon. what -- brendan. one of the interesting development last week was iraqi kurds danced selling its own oil on the markets. is the market anticipating that kurdistan become its own oil exporter? itst has huge potential and oil is growing and this has been a contention. they have struggled a bit to sell their oil and finally a russian government took that oil -- russian company took that oil. baghdad has other priorities and that is why the third cargo is supposedly going to sale today try kurdistan and they will to sell as much oil as possible
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because baghdad is not paying attention. what is very interesting is that the kurds have control over to c -- have control over kirkuk , which has always been a hotly contested city, and we are heading potentially towards a -sunni-kurdistan iraq. >> thank you for joining us this morning. richard truesdale, our guest host for the hour, there are couple of oil related companies in the ipo pipeline that are looking carefully at the all agility and oil prices. -- the volatility in oil prices. >> the problem is you just can't plan. predict to be able to more than a month, 2 months, to know whether the investment makes sense. similarly, from a capital markets perspective, it depends on the longer-term view, and
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washington and the french team in the world cup. >> all right, this is "bloomberg surveillance." i am scarlet fu, with jonathan ferro and brendan greeley. adam is off today. let's get you company news, starting with walmart. the world's biggest retailer opening an e-commerce website to sell goods to mom-and-pop stores. in india, omar does count on online business to mak -- walmart is counting on online business. williams partners as agreed to by control of access, giving it one of the biggest transport is of natural gas. fracking is helping the u.s. meet more of its energy needs. whiskeyf jameson irish had a role model for expansion -- they want to become the next jack daniels. last year consumers bought three times as much jack daniels as jameson.
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brendan greeley, you recently went to ireland on a story. >> good luck, i say to you, jameson. good luck pulling that off. it is unbelievable, and i'm deeply ashamed, but i went to ireland for a week to write about whiskey. there is the problem that jamison has -- you can't make whiskey like you can make a bicycle. you can decide to make a bicycle and next year you have a bicycle. if you have whiskey, whiskey has to get old. even irish whiskey, not as old as bourbon, has to get old. is aon is -- jameson saying they can ramp up capacity and it is that you have to wait 3 is to get old and by then, it'll may not be -- people may not be picking irish whiskey anymore. >> tensions are escalating on the economic front and ryan chilcote joins us live from london. the gas pump ceo sees ukraine unwilling to pay gas there. we have seen this movie before.
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will this actually disrupt supply to europe itself? >> we have seen this movie before. i don't think it will be an immediate disruption. the last time it happened was 2009. the time before that, 2006 for the difference is that it is happening in the middle of the summer and ukraine doesn't really need any guess of this particular moment to heat people's homes. the other difference is that industrial output in ukraine is for at least one reason, because of all the fighting -- the heat needed for these factories is not operating. there've and taking some of that gas and ukraine is stockpiling. they have a few months to do this before starts getting cold. the concern is not just for you can but what this means for supply to the eu and germany. it is not disrupt supply to germany. there are other routes. >> there are and we heard the
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ceo from gas from say they will deliver it through other routes. again, western europe has a lot of gas right now. we heard from austria saying we have enough gas to cover us for the next immolate months. it goes beyond new year's eve -- the next 8 months. it goes beyond new year's eve ther. >> how do the russians play this going forward? when does it get to the point where gas from has to capitulate? -- gazprom has to capitulate? >> you know, they have got some time. .ave got a couple of months as far as they're concerned and as far as they are being perceived, they've played this three straight. they believe that ukraine had all the ability to pay back the $2 billion it was asking ukraine to pay. they believe the price they were
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$385 for 1000 cubic meters, the average in the european union, was a fair price. i think they are just going to let this sit for a while, and what they would really like to see, or they would be happy to see, is if ukraine starts taking some of that gas that is coming through ukraine but destined for western europe, sac the ukrainians stealing some of that gas, that will give them fuel for the fire to get the price they want and blame ukraine for this crisis. >> we will have to leave it there. scarlet, we have some breaking news. buying twhree is telecom, a deal valued at $5.7 billion. the per-share prices for dollars pricer share -- per-share is $4.80 per share. it has about $3 billion of committed financing as well. tw telecom is buying
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in a deal worth $5.7 billion. in terms of the rest of the markets, futures are trading lower. there is a bit of a risk-often feel with the continued violence in iraq. tom? >> good morning, everyone. this is "bloomberg surveillance ." we are on bloomberg television on bloomberg radio and all of our interviews are on digital media. scarlet in new york city this morning and i am in washington, d.c. my conversation ended it with christine lagarde. we will do that in the 10:00 our this morning. in.or is out, mccarthy is a fractious three-way race for republican whip. secretary clinton would sub 2016 support at book signing -- whips up 2016 support at book signings. a good time to speak to john sununu. it was going to be a quiet summer. >> it is never quiet summer,
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especially when campaigns are on. bombshell seemed to be that for everyone. what does it mean for moderate republicans? what is this mean -- >> i don't think it means anything unique to new england republicans, other than that there is leadership races and it is an opportunity to identify the next generation of leadership and make sure that they can speak broadly for the whole party. i think kevin mccarthy will be a strong and successful majority leader. my sense is that steve scalize se will win scali the whip -- >> from louisiana. >> he is conservative but the perspective of the three leaders will be balanced. >> the sununu family, immigration is a personal issue. is immigration that? -- is immigration dead?
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>> i don't think immigration was going to move this session regardless trade everybody sees it as an issue that will be front and center in the next session of congress. the party as a whole and individual candidates who might want to run for president are going to want this issue to be addressed early. >> how did we get here? the roar out of boston's north end as italy beat england -- how did we get to this point on immigration? >> we are a nation of immigrants. , arab american history, everyone has a family story in the united states. the challenge with this issue has always been a tension between trying to address problems we see on the border or with agriculture workers or high-tech workers and trying to lump them all together in one single copperheads of bill. it is always tougher in washington to do something when large, wide ranging
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piece of legislation. >> senator, i have to rip up the script. andave news of level 3 telecom right now. you are with time warner cable. >> that's correct. >> how do these mergers dovetail with the justice department -- >> 2 slightly different questions. first come there is docket of the fcc. they have at&t, directv, a ruling on net neutrality, a possible merger between t-mobile and sprint. extraordinary and even unprecedented level of work that is in front of the fcc right now. tw telecom, that is about consolidation mostly on the business services side. you want to take on giants like verizon and at&t. >> you are a mechanical
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engineer, you know the math here. my bill is going up and with airline mergers my airline ticket is going up. >> yes, and the biggest driver behind cable bills is the cost of content. programming costs are going up, everything from espn2 premium .ovie channels content has been driving costs in the industry for a long time. the other side of it is expansion of services. broadband, video, a growing on-demand video segment. the cable providers have a broader range of services. >> very busy washington, no question about that. forget about the quiet summer. some breaking news, because he'll fire has withdrawn its offer to -- hillshire has withdrawn its bid to buy chemical foods. hillshire has withdrawn its offer to buy pinnacle foods.
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here with jonathan ferro and brendan greeley. technology week kicked off in washington with michael bloomberg, former mayor of new york, founder of bloomberg lp, owner of bloomberg option, sat down with bloomberg josh tyrangiel. take a listen. >> not only does london need to but thiseed the tech, is where tech wants to go. you have got to know about the world and be able to show to the world and ask the world what he wants, and they live here and live in new york, more so than in any other cities. >> other cities including san francisco, san jose, most of the west coast. guestd truesdale, our host for the hour, do you hear tech companies saying that they would rather list in london or new york?
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>> a lot of interest in tech and biotech out of europe and the u.k. in particular. many of them happen coming to the united states. reboundedarket, which for a well, as rebounded again. >> when it comes to tech, everyone will throw stuff back -- at the screen back in london, the u.s. tends to get it more. create ayou can never tech scene. i was in cam which 2 years ago and were trying to tell me that it is the silicon -- john was talking about the silicon roundabout in london. it either happens or doesn't. created bye government. nice to see bloomberg and boris johnson completing their bromance. >> there is any credible
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attraction to go to london. -- an incredible attraction to go to london. the government wants to do the things roundabout and reserve judgment on it, but people are voting with their money, their moving their. grilli that -- brendan greeley talks about the bromance between bloomberg and boris johnson. into the is turning america of the european -- the place where people want to go, bring stations together -- brings nations together. -- ife to develop an idea you then use it for these isposes, i'm sure that that right around the corner for us. >> one of the things i think about -- when companies make choices about where to locate, they are very focused on quality
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of life and that is the thing that boris has right, you have to have a good place where people want to live ther. >> tax incentives certainly help. we will continue this discussion after the break. coming up, we have our agenda to discuss. team usa making its debut tonight against ghana. what are the odds of a u.s. victory ac?
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>> this is "bloomberg surveillance." i am the scarlet fu, here with jonathan ferro and brendan greeley. that's what you company news from the files of "bloomberg west." blackberry is expected to report more revenue losses on wednesday. since taking over in november, ceo john chen has cut operating expenses by 30% and scaled back on marketing. american tower is making a billion dollar bet on brazil's mobilephone sector. u.s. tower committees have been betting that wireless providers in latin america is biggest market will need more capacity. apple is expected to release its
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so-called smartwatch in the fourth quarter, according to "the new york times." that is the company news from the files of "bloomberg west." i feel like we have been talking about this for years and it will be a letdown when it happens. >> i think people will buy it because it is apple and there are so many apple junkies -- invite journalists to their unveiling and they will report on it breathlessly. we know how this works. >> maybe that is it, the spontaneity is all gone. >> is there such a thing as the spontaneity with apple? sorry, go ahead. >> you will get a lot more than a paycheck now if you work at starbucks because the coffee shop chain will pick up most of the tab for an online college education. it will pay full tuition for the final 2 years.
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this covers starbucks employees who work at least 20 hours a week. they were ahead of the curve in offering health insurance, too. >> i think this is another sample of how we are relying on companies to make policy. we assume that washington is incapable of making policy and we look for all economic policy for the fed because they're capable of making decisions, and last week barack obama wanted to reduce the student that load. -- student debt loa. he did what limited things he could do and he cannot help them refinance at federal funds rates, but what starbucks is doing is they are going to pay for it completely. that is an example of a company doing something that the country is incapable of doing. >> and the battle for talent as well. it becomes a more attractive employer. a deal valued at $1.1 billion -- a lot of deals to talk about in recent days. the battle for alstom is also heating up because we are expecting siemens to make an
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official bid for the energy unit in the next couple hours. this may put the pressure on ng to repurpose existing $17 billion offer. jeff mccracken is the global managing editor on a deals and joins us with more on this story. this did by siemens and -- this bid i siemens and hitachi looks like it is a lot more ge hadated than g a -- offered. >> "convoluted" is the word that would come to mind. you have 4 different companies. mitsubishi assumed that the government would get involved. whichosed to a ge deal, is relatively straightforward and simple, $17 billion for the energy assets of alstom. the question is will ge improve? the definition of "improve" is in the eye of the beholder. typically they say i want another nickel or dime per
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share. but here, ge is playing as much as anything to the french government and population and improvement would be more jobs or guarantees of jobs. >> why does the french government get sa? -- get a say? this is a publicly listed company. why is it that just a multi-is going before the french national isembly and -- jeff immelt going before the french nationalism and begging for the still to go through? >> the energy products and the rail products, the french government is your largest buyer and you have a defective veto -- de facto veto. typically in mna it is buyer and seller. now it is buyer, seller, regular, and oh, here comes the government. >> ad hoc industrial policy. >> is like we have not recovered from 2008-2009.
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if you look at the medtronic deal, one of the first things they did before announcing the deal, medtronic called the governor of minnesota to let him know, don't worry, we will be adding jobs in the next few years and then he rushed out a statement saying "great deal." there's this whole other, or theater where you have to reach out to elected officials. not that you didn't have to in the past, but more so than ever. >> it is very public, which raises the question -- all these u.s. attorneys have trillions in cash abroad. when they see what happened to pfizer, what happened to ge, where essentially these executives are embarrassed in front of politicians, does this prevent deals on the road -- deals down the road? >> certainly. there are 20 or 30 other inversion deals going on right now and i wish we could say we knew what a all were. people will get a few weeks down the road into studying a merger and have the conversation and then they will pull back and say what kind of blowback will we
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get, what kind of political pressure will we get? state level, federal level? how will regulators involved? if you are a defense company, imagine how much more competitive it would get. mind thehings to difficulties that these companies deal with now that they are in the public arena. richard truesdell, does that mean that they are trying to make these deals first before they go public? >> is much harder if you are a public company. in the u.s. you are allowed to wait to disclose. there are certain jurisdictions where it is much more concentrated. with an version, the clock is ticking and it is going to run out. the u.s. is to tax heavy and there is too much attractiveness to believe. -- attractiveness to leave. a lot of the deals in the
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pipeline right now, there is question whether they can get done before the legislation changes. >> that is why we are seeing the deals now. it is not as if offshore cash didn't exist a year ago. people are thinking that at the end of 2014, 2015, something gets done. >> jeff mccracken, thanks for giving us the latest on these deals taking place. it is time for us to get to the agenda, where we look at the stories shaping the day. tom, tell us why you are in washington. >> i am in washington to speak with christine lagarde and we will do that in the 10:00 hour. this is a day when the imf puts out a report card on any given country. today it happens to be the united states. recall, week or so ago, the united kingdom was told that the housing market was overheating. we will have to see what the imf says about the american housing market today. it is always delicate, always
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political. we will try to ask her some tough questions. >> my agenda is empire manufacturing. it comes out at 8:30 a.m., going to move the market, it typically does. we have industrial production later on. >> only one thing really, team usa versus ghana. but let's keep it on the markets as well. when germany plays portugal, expect a little volume out of the market -- [laughter] >> that is the agenda, how strong is germany this year? >> let's bring in our twitter question. the bigger looming question throughout everything here as we discussed the world cup and watch the world cup is what is going to happen in 2022? qatar is going to be the host. some of the answers yeah, 20 years ago, in fact.
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changing demographics, good point. >> isn't that the point? come on, let's not talk about the vote. >> the u.s. as an emerging market for soccer. nfl in the u.s. -- richard, did you tweet this? >> there is a picture that shows baseball diamonds in central park. answer that of the we need to pay attention to. toatar -- $160 billion $200 billion? >> there are already people who have died building infrastructure there. >> it is just desert and there is no one even living there. >> tom, we want to thank you for making a special appearance in ndc -- in d.c. we know you need to get ready
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