-- raghi. details from details from draghi and how long rates will stay low for. and a fail build for -- failed bid for alstom. and truth talks. ukraine and russia move closer to a comprehensive cease-fire.

hello. welcome to "countdown." i am mark barton. it is 6:00 on this thursday morning here in a bloomberg reporters are standing by to deliver the stories that will drive your day. mario draghi has his conference. failed bid for alstom. ryan chilcote has the latest on the truce talks between ukraine and russia. coming up in just under one earningse, we get since a high retailer went public. we will be the first to talk to jim mccarthy. and then we are joined by the director general of the confederation of british industry. he says that uk's continued membership in the eu is vital for its economic future. 9:00, we'll have

kjos.r guest, bjoern draghi speaks. we get the u.s. report as well. i'm joined by manus cranny for more. what are you expecting from draghi after last month's extensive measures question mark -- measures? >> clarity. we have moved on. how low will rates go? how long will rates stay low? issue is the growth economy.

how are you going to do it? how are you going to measure the effectiveness in the real economy? has managed to muddy the waters. we have reached the lower wind. at least for rates, but possibly for lower than originally foreseen. june 21, the extension of cash for all my friends. it is a signal of the duration. liquidity measures for the one week and one month measures. >> unlimited liquidity. how do you measure whether the banks are doing what they are doing? how do they get a hold of the money. a lot of details to be delivered. this blows my mind. one third and 30% of the survey

think that interest rates will be height -- hiked up. 30% says it will be 2017. is 2017ent thinks it that would tie up a little bit more toward a lending program. i want to share the difference. have a look at this. three-month money. all the way out there. the market is still pricey. it is very different to the survey. it is at lower rate for quite a bit longer. >> jobs. payroll. story.ead the same >> we are thinking alike.

it will be the fifth consecutive month of post 200,000 jobs. it is the longest stretch since -- >> shall i go? [laughter] i think what is important here -- maybe slightly trite every time we have interviewed them coming to the door, it needs to grow 200,000 jobs above and beyond every month. indeed, this is beginning of that momentum. people are dropping out. we move on that story. the federal reserve focuses much more on the job rate. great down ors a weaving moment for the market. the reality is in the nitty-gritty. we bear that in mind.

real wage growth comes under pressure. look at the labor force in the form of the actual people who produced the data. adth.her words, the bre >> there was a great quote that story. you would rather have 100 companies hiring than one company hiring 100. >> absolutely. janet yellen, i think her speech had beautiful imagery. they are talking about rates and markets. it is a very dovish speech. that is my take. >> thank you. stay with us. we will bring you mario draghi's

speech. do not miss that. siemens might have lost its bid for alstom,, but it has only sharpened the hunger for more deals. we have an exclusive interview. she has come back from germany. good morning. >> good morning. >> thank you for getting up for us. >> how could i miss it? it is all about gas. all roads lead to gas. he wants that gas turbine business. on gas insing more the u.s.. shale is where he sees the opportunity. the bottom line is that gas of the the fastest-growing fossil fuel for the next 20 years. there will be more gas turbines sold in the u.s. in the next year than it will be sold over the next 10 years. fire.ave huge

they have got the liquidity and the cash. the acquisitions might be the way to go. >> and on the alstom bid, a loss that quest. it was a long-running quest. we talked about it every day. how upset is he? >> this is really interesting. satisfied.eems quite we went back and forth on exactly what the point of doing the deal was. here is what he had to say. >> how serious are you about wanting to buy alstom? was it a sincere bid are just trying to get a peek at their books? >> from the very beginning, i was very serious. >> does that mean you suzy wanted to acquire alstom? -- seriously wanted to acquire alstom? >> we are series about considering all of our options.

we took steps one at a time. we got what we wanted. >> did you see the outcome as a victory or were you disappointed? >> i do not know. we looked at it hard. we look at the proposal. with alstom with the train business still in play? so.o, i don't think it takes a great partnership. if they're not willing to partner and do it one at a time, -- iteven though of course meant getting all of the lawyers and the bankers involved in several very sleepless weeks, he thought of it as worth it. ge has a french government as a stakeholder,

that will be a big thorn in their side. olivia.s, ukraine and russia are moving closer to a truce. this comes after ukraine -- brand chocolate -- ryan chilcote has the details. good morning. >> good morning. we have a total number of the calories that is well over 400. a month ago when you and i spoke, we were talking about a couple of incidents per day. now we're talking about more than two dozen. the german foreign minister says this is not acceptable. we have to do something about this. they're hosting talks in berlin. they have got the french there. the russians and ukrainians. the markets, the global markets, are largely ignoring this. but this is good. let's not get ahead of ourselves . they have given themselves two

days to establish some kind of comprehensive truth. if they do not do that, there can say that they still have their stake and that is more sanctions. >> where are we with that? >> get it to go after multilateral lenders. you have got that european banks with reconstruction and development. it was established in 1991 to help out post soviet economy. is thecase, it straightforward. they can do what they want. .he americans have 10% europeans have a little less than 10 each. the russians also have a stake. they will not like that. think that they can help about funding. what this is and is the kind of

sectoral sanctions the u.s. was talking about, nor is it the idea that export controls that we were talking about last week for the u.s. was effectively on whate-by-case basis decide gas and oil technology could be sent to russia. nor is it an extension of the sanctions. it is just what they can agree upon. the reality is that they eu heads of state will not meet until the 16th of this month and that is not until a week after next. is that right? >> yes. >> even when they do, the italians, the french, the austrians, they all have objections to increasing sanctions against russia. as long as those talks are happening, that is maybe what will benefit markets. >> still to come on "countdown" investors with the ecb rate decision. say the eurozone might lag behind the u.s. and the u.k. for years.

james ashley joins me after the break. ♪

tell those who are listening to us or those who are

watching us that i never betrayed their confidence, that i never did anything contrary to the republican principles were the rule of law. >> that was former french president nicolas sarkozy speaking for the first time since he was charged with peddling. he denies the charges. welcome to "countdown." i am mark barton. 6:16 a.m. in london. ratell get the ecb decision. and we will have the u.s. jobs report. jamesve with us ashley. good morning. >> morning. i think it will be the case of more of the same. on the showus saying they are expecting a rate hike from the ecb. that is inconceivable that it will happen. the messages trend get across is

aat we have had a low for long time. anyone is expecting a rate hike, forget about it. speech, he sort of tied his speech to liquidity measures. what is it? >> their time to forecast four -- they are trying to forecast four years out. hike andhere will be a 2016. 18, that is the window where anything is possible. we could see it return it to some kind of equilibrium. basis.nd of sustainable they could start to think about it. >> the different types of loans

that banks can take up, the weekly the monthly measures, the four-year program is slightly above the benchmark interest rate. you think the rates will rise? surely you would take more of the four-year validity. -- liquidity. >> the ecb has put this forward guidance out there. we are allowing you to find yourselves at a fixed rate. i think it really intensifies banks to take it out. these new -- it is not too dissimilar, at least in the initial stages. cashanks are paying that back. they do not necessarily want it. the idea that we will get a fuller take i think is a little bit out of kilter. do not think we

will get the full take. do need more details on the tlo's? by also how it will measure the banks passing it on to their economy? have a bitbe nice to more information. i think the loss of it will be on a basis. made publicly. i'm not sure it will ever be publicly available. i think some of it will in terms of how able do it and where they want the money to go within the real economy. i'm not sure we will get anything on that today. even at the end of time, we will not have a full set of information. >> how soon before that measures announced will take effect? >> i think considerable time.

and stopping the sterilization. they are having some -- the big 's.sure is the tlro fitting it through in any beforeful way -- really we can form any conclusive judgment is -- >> does that mean additional measures cannot be expected into we can measure whether our initial measures have taken effect? >> i think it means we shouldn't expect anything right away. deviation from the baseline projections and go into a deflation scenario, the ecb is not to sit on the sidelines and say, hang on. we need to see what happens. they will act. it requires material deviation rather than just one -- .1 or

.2. >> james, stay there here in the u.s. jobs report is today. james will discuss it next. ♪

>> welcome back. i am mark barton. fromve james ashley here rbc capital markets. consecutivethat the

month of more than 200 jobs being added to the economy. the first time it has happened since 2000. , bloombergppens -- expectations are pretty elevated this time around. i do not expect any major downside. i think the risk are a little bit on that -- -- do youould stay look at our bridge wages? what are you looking at? is important to consider all of the available information . i would be looking at the earnings numbers. no plumbing rate matters.

i think it is perhaps underappreciated by many. any impact data have on when you think the first interest rate hike might happen or not? >> i think not. at this stage, it is very much on cruise control with tapering. it is not fanciful, but unlikely. moment, this a bit useful information to take a gauge of the economy speed and momentum. i do not think it will change the policy settings until the end of the year. there is certainly momentum here in the u.k. does that lead to the question that the u.k. and the u.s. decoupling from that eurozone? >> certainly from a race environment. if you look at the forecast for the fed tightening and that

thinking when tightening, i think the ecb's a good couple of years behind that. what islly reflects going on within the economy. you look at the u.s.. in terms of the underlying trend, you're looking at growth of 2.5%. it still languishing around one point 0%. there's no doubt there's a significant divergence in economic performance. >> will it continue? >> i think so. i think right now, i think it is as good as it can get for that euro. growth is a pick up for a long period of time. we are going to see what we should probably expect. >> james ashley there at rbc capital markets. ok, clashes in jerusalem intensified after the death of a

palestinian teenager. we go to israel next. ♪

>> welcome to "countdown." i am mark barton. let's go to manus for the fx check. predictions are dropping. today is the jobs numbers. you and i have spoken about it. barclays say it could be time for the dollar to shine. you could see policy dramatically change.

it is a capitulation on the way for the dollar. when it comes to matters of great importance. the head of the reserve bank of australia is saying that this is overvalued. aussie is overvalued. their basis of understanding, overvalued by more than a few cents. probability. this currency will drop to 87 in the next 12 months. back to you. >> thanks, manus. the u.s. and you and have condemned the abduction and murder of the palestinian -- and .n. have condemned the abduction and murder of a palestinian teenager.

they call it sickening well be you and demanded justice over this a couple act -- over this despicable act. the peddling charges against former french president says it -- sarkozy denied any wrongdoing. >> i want to tell those who are listening to us or those who are watching us that i never betrayed their confidence, that i never did anything contrary to the republican principles or the rule of law. >> defending champion andy murray is out at wimbledon. defeat at theiest all england club since 2008. palestinianng of a teenager has sparked clashes in jerusalem. there are fears of a possible cycle of revenge attacks. elliott has the details. good morning.

>> good morning. yes, tensions are still running high in israel and in the west bank and in gaza as well. tensions were already running high in the wake of the murder of three israeli teenagers and we heard the tragic news that a palestinian teenager had been abducted and murdered. -- as the result of that, there have been clashes between israeli arabs and palestinians. they have been throwing bombs and rocks at police who responded with tear gas and smoke grenades. they describe it as a loathsome murderer of this palestinian teenager. we have also seen further

escalation in gaza, about 14 rockets have been fired from gaza this morning. israel has been retaliating with airstrikes. hamassing not only punish , but also to try to find the two prime must -- suspects. >> thank you. our middle east editor in tel aviv. any stocks will rally in the second half. that is a bold call of not just one, but three major investment banks. the question is -- why? good morning, john. >> good morning, mark. in this case, goldman sachs and morgan stanley are forecasting double-digit percentage growth in the stock market.

the government and china must make steps to reach its growth target. it would be about 7.5%. he was promised it would be a different percent. example, they have seen it's lacking a bit. we have seen manufacturing retail sales and all of this growing in the last few months that is encouraging. we have also got goldman sachs. that will rise 13% by june of next year. you have got morgan stanley that will rise. rise 4% by thel end of this year. they are fairly bullish as a government will put into place

steps and see the stock market grow. that is why it must meet the 7.5 or send growth at any cost. -- 7.5% growth at any cost. for example, morgan stanley's forecasting for june of next year. they downgraded that. we expect the chinese indices to rise in the second half. goldman sachs had both thousand target by june of next year. the original one was 13600. they downgraded there's because the markets have fallen in the first half of this year. they're still being quite bullish, but they have cut it back. go, very quickly, i

have to congratulate you. i remember everything you said. you said dimitrov will beat murray. congratulations on that. you must have been surprised at the ees of the victory. -- ease of the victory. >> i was saddened with straight sets. superb coach. probably the best one around today. this championship is a coming of age. a great coach. he might go all the way. we are the oldies, john.

still going for djkovic and federer final. thanks, john. see you later. we take a look at foundland's first earnings report since it went public good stay with us. ♪

♪ tougher today's world cup news good the u.s. team at the world cup made history for tuesday's match against belgium. it hit a record for tv viewership and it was the most strained viewing event ever in the u.s. according to a digital content provider. customizing the official football that will be used at this year's world cup quarterfinals. it will name the two teams and the date. it is being sent to the stadium. and giving the government workers a half day off. are giving permission to stop work at lunchtime.

rodriguez is the tournament's top scorer. welcome back to "countdown." i am mark barton. it is 6:41 a.m. in london. foundland has been enjoying strong and steady sales growth since its ipo earlier this year. caroline hyde joins us on what to expect in their first earnings report. ?ho shops at foundland >> i do. i love shopping at foundland christmas time. santa hats that light up at the end. or dog treats for a friend of mine. >> all for a pound? >> all for a pound. everything is one pound. the success of single priced stores. if you don't in to some of the

details at foundland when they were selling shells for the first time back in march of this year, we looked at their notes. 22% of shoppers in the a earningsb category, 22% of the shoppers are from there. we are getting savvier in the same way we are going -- all of the u.k. are changing in the way they shop. seems we are all thinking we are a savvy type of shopper. meanwhile, we see that trends that the likes of other retailers are losing ground. what is really interesting is it has huge growth prospects. there are plans to open more than 1000 for the next 5-10 years. adjusting week, they opened up an island, but couldn't call it euroland.

they didn't like the word "euro." one andng is generally a half euros over there. it is a really interesting concept. >> come expect more growth? sales have more than doubled. it gives you a sense of the growth that we are seeing. earnings at 22%. they're managing to buy in some of these for far less than a pound each. 50 e they bought it for pence. >> when you in there, you can believe what is being offered for a pound? >> exactly. have done the u.k. and ireland. they will try to do some shops in spain. analysts are very optimistic on the stock. --be fair, only about four

three say to buy and one says to hold. the only ipos that has managed to be about its initial share price. some say they will reach one third above the ipo price. >> why didn't they sell shares for a pound? why did they go for three pounds? >> the value. >> thank you. jim mccarthy will join us at 7:00. do not miss that. this week, norwegian air is offering transatlantic flight with one-way fares starting at 149 pounds. have they managed to fill

this gap? >> they are following a path others have tried before. had another try in 2009. they had issues with oil prices. one went bust. have dreamliners. that is the latest number they have as of now. they say it is so efficient that basically if you asked the ceo, he says it is a stiff the sky. they do say they have got the right lane and they can do it. >> what impacts will have on the more established players? about that earlier this week. he gave a little bit of a shrug. it is still a bit of a small operation. they will be operating out of gatwick could only three flights

to new york and two flights to fort lauderdale and to fly stellate --ill fairly small -- like to two to fly to l.a. still fairly small. if you want though, you would have to buy that on board. the margin of difference will start to get eaten away. >> will other low-cost carriers go the same way? >> the public is vocal on that subject. theory is you have to offer -- whether oil will be at a price to make that feasible, one has to wonder. he would spin it off into a separate operation. the region says it will not happen if he doesn't have the dreamliner. he won't get there for a long time. >> what is the catch?

it sounds too good to be true. >> they have had quite a few issues with the dreamliner. in the beginning, they were running planes out and it was hard to pick up the pieces if anything went wrong. christmas, many got stranded in new york. the other issue is they are some pushback from the u.s. they are operating under a norwegian air -- they can work under the umbrella of the eu. the americans are not super excited about that. the department of transportation has yet to respond. they are operating under the norwegian license, that they want to switch to the irish one. we will wait and see what happens. >> thank you. our airline correspondent. stay with us. coming up, andy murray falls in

straight sets at wimbledon. it is that the change of the old guard? we will have more on that story and more in today's headlines. ♪

>> welcome back. it is newspaper time.

we better get on with it. >> this is for your frequent flyer out there. no free lunch in the uconn so -- lufthansa business lounge. he change his ticket and did it again and again. before the5 times very expensive business-class ticket was canceled and refunded by lufthansa. they took him to court. the court found him guilty and fined him $2700. that is 55 euros purchase how session. they got meatloaf and sausages. >> it is disingenuous. exactly.

the judge decided it was disingenuous. this man was malevolently -- >> put it in the fine print. steep. is pretty >> how many did he have? >> we do not know. we do not even know his name. it is like a protection group. [laughter] drunke you ever eaten and in a business lounge? >> is probably something i should not answer. [laughter] >> i thought we all fly business? [laughter] matters, this is a great story. it was in the bbc. i was reading it with much interest yesterday. it has been picked up by all of the press. google's right to be forgotten.

reason and got a that piece or link is no longer relevant, can you take it down? this is not caroline hyde partying in 2009? >> no. there was a blog. suddenly come at bbc received a statement from google saying i'm afraid this article has been removed from the european link because clearly someone has requested it to be removed. the only individual named was ceremonial himself. article was himself. it does start to highlight will this stop the freedom of expression? will be see important information taken off the internet? google says it has 50 requests

for people who want to wipe out information. >> and a few journalists? >> yes. alcoholsked me how much i consumed. i thought maybe we should hide this link. [laughter] >> what is eating andy? where did all go wrong? i watched it yesterday with my two little kids. thank goodness they do not understand what was going on. it was a disaster. dimitrov played very well. he won in queens. they are good buddies. into something was up. murray's form was awful.

he demolished -- >> it says it all. look at that. princess to come mirk.th that semir >> he hasn't won a tournament. >> he blended in himself. he says he has -- he blamed himself. he says he has got to go away and reassess. >> the bottom of the page is great. nadal was out earlier this week. the me trouble play -- dimitrov will play djokovic. >> how about the australian? >> he lost to roanic. nadal lost yesterday.

>> when you beat someone so young -- i'm still on for roger. "countdown" continues. we speak to the poundland's ceo at the top of the hour. ♪

investors still have unanswered questions on the ecb lending program and how long rates will stay low for. joe kaser talks to bloomberg about his failed bid for alstom. >> superior. to any other proposal. proposal.r to any >> ukraine and russia move closer to a comprehensive cease-fire.

welcome to "countdown care code -- "countdown." >> we have a variety of topix. caroline is here standing by with details. expected, sales up 13%. it is about a billion pounds this company is making. but shy 2%. we get into the management statement that has been put out today. we want a feeling for what they are seeing. during the first quarter, sales pounds,262 million driven by a combination of amazing value every day, a pound

for every item, and a late easter. overall, they say they have opened nine new stores. the plan is to be up to a thousand eventually. alone, the first quarter nine. for the first three months of the new fiscal year, they have seen strong total sales and that opposition seems to gain traction. 22% of shoppers are in the -- are in the highest category. they say 2014-2015, we are confident of further progress. this is a company that has clearly benefited from authority -- from austerity. but also from the way we shop we all want. to get a deal.

this company is doing well and is internationally looking to expand, notably in spain. >> we spoke with joe mccarthy. he is the chief executive of poundland. thank you for joining us today. >> good morning. >> you have had a good year, sales up by 13.3%. the almost cracked a billion pounds. can you keep this going? is this sustainable? >> yes, we think so. we opened 70 stores last year. we have a strong pipeline of new stores for this year in the u.k. just over 500 stores in total. we know that we have a thousand that the market will take in the u.k. not only that, of course, we have opened our first shop in spain. that was yesterday. we are very happy that we can grow our store numbers and meet the needs of our consumers.

tummy a bit more about the international expansion plan. poundland works well as a name in britain. euroland is in the cards. >> in 2011, we launched a new format, deals and we couldn't call it foundland because they deal in the euro. wels is a popular name and knew that would transfer across to europe. we have done very well in ireland. it has to do all the investment, made money in the first year which is unusual when you enter a new territory. spainearched europe and came out the market we should go to first. the conditions reflected those that existed in ireland when we entered that market. yesterday, we opened our first

shop in taliban he knows -- in telemolinos. , ais part of a program two-year program, to open 10 test stores and we hope that will work and then we can expand the numbers throughout spain and ultimately into other markets in europe. researched you around europe. what would be the next on your list if you could pick anywhere right now? >> we looked at 20 markets to start with. we distilled those down to eight and then three. spain was the best of those three because of the conditions that existed there. but we do think consumers across the globe like value. it has become more put into them. i don't think there are too many

values to deals in europe at all. one step at a time will make stain work. when we have done that, we can seriously the consider our next steps. website thisyour morning and i was amazed to see that, last year, you sold 250,000 garden gnomes. i know what i am getting my wife for christmas. [laughter] what are the big sellers? you are in a lot of sectors, beauty, home and garden. what are the surprising sellers? >> garden gnomes are a big seller. [laughter] but the yearning category in total is very good for us. categorye gardening total is very good for us. brands are very important so those popular brands that you see elsewhere, we try and sell those just for a pound, as you know. books are very popular.

diy, stationery, food and drink, bestsellers in food would be things like milk, for example. the large packs of milk for a pound. sugar, we just moved to a 1.4 kilo on sugar so there is tremendous value there is well. wei du 6000 tons of that year and growing. do 6000 tons of that a year and growing. so it is broad appeal. 17 categories. >> how mainstream would you describe yourselves? i know you have used that word before. we are interested to work out what kind of breadth of appeal you have across the u.k. population. in you update what you have affluent customers coming into your store? >> 53% of our customers are abc

one and a be shoppers have increased to 22%. so one in 22 customers come from those demographic groups from disposable income. 'hat reflects the consumers appetite for value. i think the brand is growing in popularity. you can see that from the store numbers. you can see that from the customer accounts and the increased transaction value. it is important for us to serve all customers, of course, but it is noticeable that those ab shoppers are increasing and shopping for value is worn as a badge for honor. >> you put out your first quarter interim statement as well. it looks like you are off to a strong start. first quarter sales up 18%. up, do youomy picks expect in sales to increase as they has been?

will we continue to be as savvy shoppers as before? years, we have had five of economic challenge. consumers have gotten used to spending wisely. we have the emergence of other discounters. so i think the stigma perhaps that existed a decade ago has gone. all of our research tells us that people, when they are better off, will continue to shop for value. that is encouraging for us. if there is more shoppers out there in the high street in the retail parks with more confidence, poundland benefits from that. we are aligned in terms of results to footfall. confident -- a more confident consumers can force. poundland does, better so i am confident about the future. >> thank you for joining us.

jim mccarthy, the ceo of poundland. >> lots of investors to watch today. the ecb, draghi speaks, the jobs report, so let's start with draghi. what are we expecting? >> clarity, details, you could get both. that is perhaps a little unfair of me. clarity in terms of the communication policy and what markets want to know is they want to feel assured that the zero bounce rates are for some period of time. a move toward, yes, we are putting some solid work into quantitative easing. the market. -- the market wants to know lower interest rate, that is, but a weight of expectation that there will be progression towards qe. some clarity around this big new [indiscernible]

how much it's going to cost? how does the ecb decide that you have done very well? therefore, will they force you to pay back your money early? there is a lot of detail that needs to be worked out. i think draghi himself actually muddied the waters somewhat between the starting gun on this policy and where we are. forid say let's look at -- all practical purposes, we are in the low bounds. but is that 2016? is that 2017? is that 2018? we have done a survey. the european central bank is expected to hike in 2015. think so in 2017. how much will the banks pick up?

that is the number one issue. >> and how much will they pass on and at what rate? >> absolutely. >> that is something that has been debated in the markets. let's soundtrack to the u.s. jobs report later today. 4 -- instead of july 4, we will get it today. the fifth consecutive month where jobs hopefully will be about 200,000. that is the first time we have seen a run like this since -- >> since i was 14 years old. the year 2000. >> that doesn't help anybody. >> it's about momentum. about 200,000, we know that is a magic number. when you get into that role in a group, that is when it is happy

in terms of the use economy. it's about wages. how much money is in your pocket? and how much disposable income is in your pocket? average hourly earnings, that is the number to watch. >> year on year, it is low inflation, isn't it? >> yes and it is the slowest year on year in 2014. it's about the breath of hiring. there is a wonderful line in there. a lot of people would love to see a lot of companies hiring one person then one company hiring a lot. >> we will bring you mario draghi's news conference live. do not miss it. >> it's the fourth of july tomorrow. will a continued success in year one great give the u.s. more to celebrate on independence day?

we will look ahead to the u.s. jobs report when we come back.

>> time for today's company news. really -- is that's

italy is looking to partner with the u.s. investment is a significant one. we expected benefits from the labor and production point of view. we hope other european countries will decide to come and build at 35. u.s.-35 jets that itl fly over europe will use for maintenance. >> and we have a bloomberg exclusive for you. spokes chief executive about europe's recovery. >> this is an area that is encouraging. i think europe as a whole has seen the bottom. the point is is it too early to

call yet a recovery. how many jobs do we create? how many young people are employed in the future going forward? i guess europe as a whole has a lot to do in that space. biggest carmaker peugeot will make a plant in china. the company is responding to soaring demand in the country. production will start in 2016. welcome back. >> we will get the u.s. jobs report later today. it is a daily because of the fourth of july holiday tomorrow in the u.s. john norman joins us now. what are you expecting, a number above 200,000 once again? that seems to be the estimate.

>> exactly, we are about where the consensus is and we are close to the possesses on unemployment rate. be ifekke figure would the wage numbers came out strong and unexpected. >> that is the focus for you. there is a lot of focus on wages right now and what they did going into the end of this year and into the start of next. is that for you the key thing to watch in terms of rate policy? >> that is exactly the issue for everyone. the fed chairman has been very clear that she sees the inflation numbers as having been quite noisy. if we see a trend develop were not only cpi headlines, cpi core and the weights numbers are turning up simultaneously, i think you get that repricing a rates. >> does that mean the market with the dots that janet yellen has would've told us, not what i say but read the statement? the dots tell us that the rate will be at 200.

do you expect that sooner? premiumap is the risk because people doubt that inflation will pick up, that the fed will be able to follow through on its own guidance. you need to follow the data to realign consistently every month. when you start to see their gap close. >> the dollar index has been stuck in a narrow trading rate since last september, 79 to 81 for the best part of a year. what will break it out of this range? >> i hate to put it back to rates but that is exactly what it is. when you think about whose now until a policy is in question, it is the fed, not so much the ecb or the bank of japan. we know what the ecb easing program will be for the next couple of years. we know what the pog -- the boj easing program will be. it is really the fed, which is a bit. more in play right now >> are we going to get some sort of speech in the second half of this year or some data point that will

suddenly wake up the market, out of this though -- this low volatility environment we are in and that rates will go up in the u.s.? >> i don't think it will be one data point, but i think it is the sort of array of them. it is all around inflation, as everyone knows. the difficulty is that the fed has a few measures of inflation that it is focusing on. the market tends to key off on cpi. the fed is focused on wages. if you think how long will it take for all of those two point in the same direction, to me it is a q4 event. >> stay with us.

>> welcome back. >> we are back with john normand. how long are rates going to stay eurozone?e >> we reckon three years. ecb does nothing until 2018 but it depends on the inflation story. >> maybe some inc. -- maybe something with quantitative easing? giving the banks a chance to

expand the balance sheet, the question is whether the banks actually take the ecb up on its offer. if they don't, then you may not get the growth push, the inflation push that the ecb would like to generate. if that does not materialize, the ecb will have to be more proactive. >> when do we start to feel the effects of the june 5 announcements? euro is trading stronger against the dollar, isn't it, then at the time which is not what they intended. >> that is interesting because that it may be what draghi will be quizzed on. they haven't listened materially. you have the bond your lower and the euro unchanged and efficient -- >> didn't periphery move ahead? >> if you look since the actual announcement, even that it was considered a bit more aggressive than what people were thinking,

it does not look that they have moved markets broadly. he will get the first indication with the september rt ro. i think it is really only 2015 when we really see if this is working. >> this is all about fending off deflation. fromu see a big departure 0.5 cpi coming in at that early -- coming indefinitely? countries that we track, we show inflation bottoming. it looks like we have seen the trough in this as a global phenomenon. but europe, we cannot really see it cracking 1% this year. >> what is your favorite currency? >> right now, i would rather sell the aussie dollar. remarks they came out last night from the rba, it is reminding people what they arty new. there is a problem -- what they already knew. the central bank seems like it

may respond to that. >> thank you. coming up, the chief executive of siemens says it is too early to celebrate a european recovery. more from our exclusive interview next.

>> welcome back. fx check. out to the we had a day job owning, as bloomberg called the, as glenn stevens says this currency is overvalued. bloomberg has oh -- has run the numbers. $.87.somewhere around

if you haven't got a peashooter as the new zealander bank says they have, you have intervention. short-term it works, they say. we are just carrying through those for the jobs report today. practicing self capitulation. basically, they are lowering their targets to 83.6 on the dollar index. -- same time,me they are getting stronger dollar. and you and have condemned the adduction and murder of a palestinian teenager in israel. it has sparked fierce clashes interest loan. secretary of state john kerry

calls it sickening while the u.s. demands justice over the despicable act. nicolas sarkozy says the influence peddling charges aimed at him are to humiliate him. wrongdoing.ed any >> i want to tell those who are listening to us, for those who are watching us, that i never did -- never betray their confidence, that i never did anything contrary to the republican principles or the rule of law. >> defending champion andy murray is out of wimbledon. againsthis order final regard to metro -- against grigor dmitrov. chief executive set down with olivia stone yesterday. dashed to tell us about

it. >> siemens is fortunate because they are sitting at the crossroads of several megatrends going on around the world. they are in energy, infrastructure, automation. he is focused on the u.s., in particular in gas in the u.s.. that is where 75% of unconventional gas and liquids are. that is the opportunity, where they are doubling down, or they are hoping to do deals in the future -- where they are hoping to do deals in the future. he said he thinks it is probably too early to be calling it a recovery. that are some areas encouraging. we think europe as a whole has seen a bottom but it is early to call it a recovery. if you just stop the bleeding, is that really a recovery? how many jobs have we created? how many young people have we

employed and given them a future going forward? >> of course, they also tried to get him to weigh in on the ecb meeting today and to weigh in on drug a little bit. he dared as most tentative. he thinks that david will do the right thing -- that draghi will do the right thing. >> why don't executives comment on draghi or the ecb? >> maybe they do behind the scenes, not publicly. >> why? >> perhaps they do not feel it is their expertise. >> they may get some political blowback. inhe licking his wounds terms of losing out -- losing out on the ahlstrom bit? >> why was he spending all this money on lawyers and bankers and sleepless weeks trying to push

this deal through. they did not seem to make strategic sense to say we have laid out this plan. he is pretty please with the outcome because that is what he did achieve. he forced ge to make concessions. he also forced the french government to appreciate their attempts. he is sure that basically that is going to inhibit ge's ability to push forward all the u.s.-style productivity reforms he was trying to push through. he feels he has thrown a wrench into the works of his big competitor. that no true acts of all tourism -- much.nk you very >> ukraine and russia have

gotten closer to a truce. this is after ukraine resumed its offensive against russian rebels. thehe media's attention to conflict in ukraine has come and gone, hasn't it? but the conflict there has not. the fighting is intensifying in the east. it looks an awful lot like all-out warfare. that is why we had the german foreign minister yesterday saying that things are coming to a head, reaching a climax. we may be about to reach a point of no return. earlier this week, we had the russian resident issuing a stern warning saying that he intends to protect russians wherever they are coming even if it is the on russian borders. and another warning yesterday from the foreign ministry saying that ukraine must implement a cease-fire. that is why the stocks are happening that we saw yesterday. the germans working with the french trying to broker some kind of cease-fire, lasting cease-fire because the last one did not work between the

russians and the ukrainians. those talks happened in -- in berlin. globally, we know the markets are pretty much ignoring the situation in ukraine. the russian market, however, pretty much still moving on what happens. the russian market was up yesterday for the first time in six. but this isn't over. all the agreed was to try to reach some kind of truce by saturday. and if they don't, the europeans, western europeans, i should say, will say they will have to pull out the proverbial stick, which we all know is sanctions. >> remind us where we are on that. we have had interesting conversations talking about parts of southern europe and maybe even eastern europe about not being on the same place with sanctions. >> austria, italy, france, is, there is a strong sense that increasing sanctions is not what

europe should be doing. learned over the last 24 hours is that one thing they are looking at is stopping funding from things like eib, the european union's investment bank. they let russia $1.5 billion last year. they are also looking at stopping funding from the ebrd. along with the u.s., they have a majority stake to fund those communist projects in the transition to democratic -- capitalist states -- democratic-capitalist states. this isn't a discussion of sectorial stanchions -- sanctions. in the u.s., there is a sense

coming from business groups that we should not go too far because we may be out of step with europe which would just leave american business to getting punished by the russians in a disproportionate way. so this is not over yet. but mark my words, saturday is a big day. if there is no cease-fire, i think we will be talking about this again monday morning. >> we will take a short break. coming up, we will tell you about the man who should have quit while he was ahead. the lunchtime freeloader.

>> welcome back. week, a new route between london and the united states. one-way fares starting at 149 pounds. how have they managed to fill the gap? >> it is a well trodden path, but not a successfully well trodden path.

norwegian will be trying to do it with dreamliner. that is what the ceo says is the game changer in the whole low-cost long-haul push. he has been doing it out of scandinavia since last year. it had a rocky start but they are hoping to do it out of [indiscernible] >> what are they hoping to accomplish with the transatlantic carrier? it was clear that not all of the aircraft will be as low-cost as the 149 pounds. >> they have to sell a certain number of tickets at that price and then it will go up as it gets closer and closer to the date. the operations at this point will be very small. , theke with craig krieger

ceo of virgin, who gave it a bit of a shrug. there will be three flights a week to new york, to flights to fort lauderdale and l.a. at some point, during these peak periods, there will be add-ons, paying for your food, your back, your seat. and you pay for some of that in advance, 35 pounds, not a huge amount but it all adds up. >> you may have to pay to go to the lavatory one-day, isn't that true? it's his favorite way to get in the headlines, i think. necessarily be under the ryanair umbrella. one of the things about that whole idea is that, if you don't have the right plan, this doesn't work and this is something that the air asia ceo

has said. they have been successful in asia to some extent. >> so it is having the right plane. and the air asia x ceo was telling me that they have yet to create the plane that would work for him. let's stick with the aviation scene. "the pulse" will speak with the ceo later, bjoern kjos. we are joined now with richard. give us a little bit of the details. are guess michael o'leary from reiner does not have that problem since he doesn't have any business lounges. but this guy says, ok, i am

buying a business class ticket from unit to zürich with the full intention to never board the plane. the only thing i want to do is go to the business lounge at the airport, eat, drink, and go home again. they used to allow access to their lounges, which can be pretty glitzy in big airports. they have a spot, massagers, and for a lounges, caviar and champagne. a ticket alone will not do. you actually have to have a boarding pass. enters the airport, the departure area, though so the lounge, eight hendrickson then cancels -- eat and drink then cancels the flight. this guy ever did it a bit. cateringow good is the in the lufthansa lounge to make this journey to the airport

worth it? >> that is the funny thing. the guys from munich. if you know where the airport is located, it is not around the corner. it is going to london from heathrow. he undertook some difficulties to even get there. it is not the first-class lounge we are talking about. it is the business class. they say they have to upgrade the food and the product and invest to bring it up to standard. put more into -- it is not like the top class lounge. they had the usual bavarian delicacies, like white sausage with wheat beer.

it is good fair, but, in class fair. so it is scratching your head, why would somebody do this, to get his a loaf sandwich? he did it and failed. >> do you think that others will do it or is this loophole closed now? the airlinersays does not need to make any changes to their contract. self-explanatory that somebody who never has the intention to buy a ticket can just feast on those perks and then run afterwards. so the airline probably does not need to take any action. the guy spent more than 700 euro on a ticket to begin with. so it is a couple of previews and a sandwich. that is a lot of money for an entry ticket. so i don't think that is something that happens every day around the world. >> it is a long way to go forth wheat beer.

thank you. not long to go until the european equity markets open, precisely 11 minutes. .aiting for draghi's stay with us.

>> welcome back. >> let's take a look at the

market open with our senior market analyst. the ecb will be a dominant theme. we are not actually expecting any big revelation from the ecb today. >> that's true. the big question people will be asking is how long is it before everything that mario draghi throughout the european economy last time, how long is it before we really see that start to benefit. and if it does not benefit, how long is it before we see them act with quantitative easing? somewhere else we will be looking is germany. we see figures out of germany. without strong germany, we don't have a strong eurozone. we will want to hear about what to draghi thinks about germany as well. >> we will want to hear may be about the euro. since the announcement in

january, the euro is up slightly against the dollar. will that worry him? >> to a certain extent. he has bigger things to worry about them and to be honest. the euro has been range bound against many currencies. there is the hot overwinter decision that we don't really know if what the ecb has done is going to work. .. that is the key point we have had so much talk and waiting for action to come. now we have had the action we don't know if it is going to work. if it doesn't work, how long before they act again? there is so much indecision that we feel like we are going back five years. there is so much indecision around the eurozone that it is hard for traders to get their mind into which way the euro is going to go and really put money in a certain direction. ifdeutsche bank was saying, there is no inflation shock for six months, there could be a period of that long were we don't see anything coming from the ecb. >> that is exactly right.

that does not necessarily mean that what the ecb has done has stopped inflation falling. if stopped falling aggressively and we are starting to level out. so we could have that whole period where we do not have that much. >> in the year 2000, that is the last time we had five months of above 500. >> wait a minute, that doesn't work. >> i was here in 2000. but it hasn't happened, five months of job growth since that year. if we get it today, do you think we will? >> i think that will come in slightly above expectations. we are probably looking at 224 that number. i think it will be a positive number. a lot of the economists in the u.s. are talking about the

unemployment rate and triggering rate decisions and move in rates. i don't think it is that close but it will do for get the fed talking if they over unemployment rate will drop under the 6%. low-volume in markets is what is plaguing a number. are we waiting for the fed to say something to move the markets? >> we have waited for the tapering story to happen. the volume, especially through currency markets, has been low. but it does not take too much. later,s that sooner or there is going to be something that has to chinese markets around -- has to turn these markets around. records, healthier highs everywhere. >> i cannot really see us going away from that at the moment without a big shock. we're looking at the fed or ecb

or some shock to really boost things and get things going. >> thank you very much. "on the move" is up next. we will keep an eye on poundland. stay with us. . .

>> welcome to "on the move." away from the start of european equity trading at investors are focused on ecb today and they will be watching out for the u.s. jobs data. he with me now is manus cranny and caroline hyde. >> key events. what are the details of lending to the real economy? ist is what the market anticipating we will get from mario draghi today. also a little bit of clarity about what the language of forward guidance is. ensuss the consic

estimate for jobs. >> it sells 3 million light bulbs and a quarter of a million gnomes. we're going wild for powerplant. it has opened its first store in spain. -- we are going wild for poundland. >> european markets just opening. let's check in with manus cranny. >> i do not know whether i will get the garden gnome or not. equity markets at the moment just beginning to start trading. it is down to mario draghi. changing rates. where do we go in the language of for guidance? yellen last night making statements in regards to not needing to raise rates or use monetary policy to burst bubbl es. it is dovish. eurozone services. let's get into one or two.