tv On the Move Bloomberg July 18, 2014 3:00am-4:01am EDT
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taking thoseuld be claims. tony abbott has just talked about the need for russia to allow a full investigation. that investigation will have serious consequences. elliott? thanks. soldiers, tanks and bulldozers have moved into the gaza strip from israel after 10 days of airstrikes failed to quell rocket fire from militants in the gaza strip. prime minister netanyahu says the mission is to destroy tunnels that allow militants to try to infiltrate israel and restore quiet to the communities of israel from that rocket fire. all the details in about 15 minutes. >> thank you very much. the market will be trading on headlines throughout the morning. it is about geopolitical risk. markets just opening right now. manus cranny at the touchscreen. >> the surprising thing for
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these equity markets is that they are not lower. that was one sentiment that came withgh when we caught up one of the lee partners earlier in countdown. equity markets, we are just waiting to see how they begin to open. these are a little bit of an indication. paris is now opening. look at that, that is yesterday's close. let's dip into london and see the complexion of what is moving. shire pharmaceuticals, the abbvie deal is going to be at the top of the agenda along with easyjet. what happens today is you hear rhetoric from angela merkel's party. the leading economic indicators in the united states. we also get the consumer sentiment index.
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that is going to drive u.s. futures. u.s. futures since i got here were coming off lows. that is beginning to turn again. take that back around. those are paris futures and those are asian futures. back here in the u.s., you have the nasdaq down 0.3%. s&p down by 0.3% as well. john, you touched on some of these currencies. it is worth referencing them again in terms of dollar-ruble. the big move came yesterday. you saw dollar rising by 2.1%, ruble falling by about that amount. this morning there is a small rest. the micex opens down 1.6%. the poll will talk about the next tension level of sanctions if that is what the proofs deliver for the u.s. and europe.
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we wait for absolute evidence on exactly what happened and where those missiles came from or who fired them. back to you. >> thank you very much. a malaysian airliner shot down over eastern ukraine killing all 298 eagle onboard. the ukrainian government blames the attack on pro-russian rebels. ukrainian government says it has intercepted tapes that prove otherwise. ryan chilcote is on the phone from kiev. what is on those tapes that back up these assertions? the response, the blame game started almost immediately. >> it certainly did. that is not normally how it would work. you would have people go to the crash site, recover the black box and mine the data. only after that would you have the assignment. we have a very extraordinary situation. this is in a war zone so that is not possible. that area is controlled by the separatists. be no international
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aviation officials on hand at this time to go through that data. you get a blame game. we have the ukrainian minister earlier saying that they intercepted phone calls between pro-russian separatists, audiotapes they have been playing on ukrainian tv all day. you hear one of them described the crash scene, saying that it looks like it was clearly a civilian aircraft. it is a conversation between two separatists. we can't there apply that those -- whating played are we can say is there is a history of pro-russian rebels bringing down ukrainian aircraft in that area. we also heard from the russian president waiting in yesterday. he had a cabinet meeting late last night. he said the ukrainian government is responsible for this tragedy. he said because of the ukrainian government's actions.
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it is only because of that strife that this crash took place. what he didn't do was he didn't pro-russians didn't do it. looking at these things, it is absolutely horrific. an incredible tragedy. 298 onboard, all dead. what else do we know? >> flight 17, 200 98 people, 15 were crew, 283 passengers. or than half of them dutch. 45 malaysians. 12 indonesians. many more people. more than 100 on their way not lumpur, they were going to transfer to australia to go to a scientific conference on aids research. all of those people that were supposed to attend will obviously not be going. a huge tragedy. none of these people had
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anything to do with the conflict. all of these people noncombatants. 298 people isl, almost equal to the number of people that have already been killed on the ground in this conflict. it is by any measure a huge escalation of the conflict. >> thank you very much, ryan. joining us now for his perspective on today's evidence is mark burgess. he oversees nearly 90 billion pounds of assets. welcome to the show. this is always a dedicate situation. reaction inhe markets and there is a reaction in markets. when we talk about geopolitical risk, you look long-term. is this something you try to look through or something we have to get used to? asked -- >> we have seen risks flare up this year in ways that are un- forecast of all. we need to think about the
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impact of what we are seeing. it is difficult to predict isolated incidents. this is a terrible tragedy. it is incumbent on us to look through this. >> those sitting at home right tv,watching the scenes on do they stay active, sit tight, what is your advice? >> one of the interesting features of the market this year was volatility. that is something we need to reflect on. the fact of the matter is, so are behavinges pretty well. the earnings season is in pretty good shape. markets are relatively well underpinned. these are things we have to think about as they, along. >> we will pick up on those things later today. you will stay with us. here is what else is coming up. the ground offensive begins in gaza. israel sends in troops for the
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20% lower at one point, then over 20% higher. called the stock crash called the rebound. he is calling for the micex to the 10% lower from here. not all about russia and the ukraine but it is about geopolitical risk. israel has launched a ground offensive in the gaza strip. soldiers moved in after 10 days of airstrikes failed to stop militants firing rockets at cease-fire effort collapsed. elliott gotkine is live in tel aviv. what is the latest on this? invasion --nd ground offensive i should say began at around 10:00 p.m. local time last night. thousands of shoulders -- soldiers backed by tanks and heavy artillery moving in. this grainy video posted by the defense forces showing these tanks and soldiers moving in.
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we understand that so far one israeli soldier has been killed. intouthorities are looking the possibility that he might have been killed by so-called friendly fire. there have been about three injuries, about 20 hamas militants reportedly killed. the objective is to primarily destroy these subterranean tunnels that militant groups have been trying to use to infiltrate israel. that was the tipping point for prime minister netanyahu to go ahead with this ground invasion. yesterday, about 30 militants managed to get into israel through underground tunnels. one of them was killed. the others fled back into the gaza strip. israel has an answer to the rocket fire. it is much harder to deal with these underground tunnels because it cannot tell exactly where they are or how many there are. >> this is always difficult to
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anye but have we got indication within israel of how long this will last? the prime minister has been quite clear that it is an open-ended operation. there is no deadline for this operation to be complete. simply to destroy these tunnels, restore quiet to israel. weaken hamas'ely and other militant groups infrastructure. meanwhile, the death toll in gaza keeps rising higher. we already know that yesterday there were more than 220 deaths. we are around 250 now. a fair number of those civilians. last time there was a ground operation, more than 1000 palestinians killed. both sides faced accusations of war crimes. don't think that is something the israelis want to see repeated. >> thank you very much, elliott. still with me now is mark burgess.
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mark, you look at what is going ole world looking and israel conducts a ground invasion at the same time. what concerns you the most, the middle east or russia? >> i think what is going on in russia is more concerning. the global growth outlook looks very fragile. what we don't need is a big uptick in oil prices or disruption in any market. the thing in russia is it has the potential to spill over into europe right-click lee -- quite quickly. the sanctions introduced yesterday changed the game and put real financial pressure on the russian economy. it could cause severe concern outside of russia. >> we have seen comments from vladimir putin. he said the ukraine crash shows the need to resolve the crisis quickly. everybody was talking about escalation. when we look at what has happened, maybe this is what gets these sides together to sort this out.
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>> why possibly, who knows what the agenda is. one potential outcome. >> you mentioned the oil market. last year we got comfortable with low inflation. we are getting too comfortable with that. are we just one event away from a spike in oil prices and therefore we have to deal with higher inflation almost immediately? >> one of the reasons we think bond markets have been so -- inflationary pressure is almost nonexistent anywhere. within the eurozone, the central banks are more concerned about deflation. given the debt overhang and the lack of growth. i think inflation is a long way away from being a problem. >> you say one of the surprises has been these bonds. we have been talking about yields. they are going to go north
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because they can't go any further south. they kept going south. when is it going to turn? >> it can only be an uptick in growth. so far we have been disappointed by growth. we have had huge negative revision for the first quarter in europe and asia. the outlook has been much lower than we would have forecast even six months ago. the outlook for bonds and yields is going to trend lower. be one of. said to the fastest-growing economies in the g7 this year. it could prompt the bank of england to raise rates early. what is your call on interest rates? >> i think rates are going to go up. i don't think they will go up any earlier than the markets are expecting. clearly there are tons of overheating in the southeast. not obvious to us that raising interest rate is going to deter foreign buyers from buying properties. outside of the southeast property market, inflationary pressures are gaining.
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that is not really going to drive rates higher. >> how does this play out in the stock market? are there any sectors i should be avoiding are going into? >> sterling has been pretty strong over the last few months. we started to see companies make reference to a sterling headwind in their revenues. 65%ftse 100 is about overseas revenues. strong sterling is going to make a difference. >> when you look at the comments from the federal reserve, this week in particular from janet yellen, they talk about valuations of certain sectors being stretched. were you surprised that the central bank came out with a comment like that? do you sympathize with those comments? >> no is the answer. as you hold short-term interest rates to zero and get the yield curve down, i wonder what they thought was going to happen. if we go back to when qe was
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introduced, i thought the intention was to raise asset prices. and to improve confidence and get spending going which is what has happened. i would have thought what has happened is what they wanted. >> a lot of people talk about exuberance from alan greenspan back in the mid-1990's. if you plot that on the chart, they pretty much doubled over the next five years. how does this play out from here? everybody i talk to campaign a bearish picture. what is the bullish picture? what underpins your view that a cuties go higher from here? >> growth remains muted, interest rates go up modestly, volumes go up gently. equities are pretty well underpinned. in conjunction with that, companies have been refinancing. cash is very positive. profitability is higher. operating margins are strong. that cash is being deployed to take over companies. equity valuations look
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attractive over bonds. >> what is the biggest risk, china? >> one is china. if one looks at the credit bubble that we see their and the explosion of the shadow banking system, in history it is difficult to think where that has ended well. >> is there any example in history? china isy there is -- a much greater command. it could be different but there is no example. growth in the eurozone and deflation is a concern. we saw in portugal just last week that the financial system is still very fragile in some places. if we saw a similar event like that, we could be revisiting quickly. >> what were your thoughts? did it make you revisit how you felt back in 2011, 2012? do you think there is many more out there? >> there will be other evidence.
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certainly in the periphery of the financial system there is still things like this blowing up again. i think we need to think about the outlook for the eurozone. >> mark burgess, thank you very much for joining us this morning. up next, prices might be down but increased clicks are helping push google revenue higher. we will go inside the latest earnings report after the break. here is a picture of the markets right now. lower equity market on the ftse 100. down by 0.5%. i will be back in two minutes time. ♪
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>> welcome back. i am jonathan ferro joining you live from london. let's bring you up to speed with some companies on the move. volvo said earnings rose 9.2%. largest truckcond maker streamlined production and cut administrative jobs to meet a cost-saving target. volvo says demand in russia has been affected by the political turmoil in the region. remi cointreau sales declined in the first quarter as cognac shipments fell more than anticipated. 11%nue fell 30% versus an drop forecast by analysts. tony cointreau continues suffer from china's crackdown on
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lavish spending. ericsson shares are higher after the wireless giant posted second-quarter sales and profit margins that beat analyst estimates. thesson has been turning to services businesses and more lucrative contracts. the gross margin has rebounded from the fourth quarter of 2011. biggest the world's search engine. they reported results that beat estimates. here with more on google and their migration to mobile is a lady that knows a lot about tec. european business correspondent caroline hyde. managing to ramp up the click. >> the price that they can charge per click, the money coming in is actually falling 6% overall in the second quarter. they drove them up by 33%. managed to offset that deterioration. the reason they are getting cheaper is because we do so much mobile now.
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everyone's to pour their advertising into the smartphone but you can't charge as much. charge,r is what you for the price of a smartphone at versus a desktop. because the smartphone screen is so much smaller you can do far less with it. the interesting view is, will it become more expensive in the end? think of what you are eventually going to get with a smartphone advert. you have location data. they will see that you are nearby a certain restaurant. they can push out certain adverts that are bespoke to you. any argue in the long-term they will be more lucrative than the pc. for the time being, they have to ramp up the amount that we are clicking. >> i am always very, very concerned about location devices. i keep mine turned off. i am not sure how they are going to track me to the cafe. on the other side, one concern is about management and the loss of a big executive.
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>> the chief business officer stepping down. he is moving to softbank, the japanese mobile giant. he was pretty instrumental in growing google as now the biggest search engine in the world. saying, it is not too much of a loss. this is a company that is investing. they are spending big, they have new sources of revenue. cost went up 25% but they feel they are going to be rewarded. you have more expansion into new services. you have enhanced campaigns prompting marketers to funnel their money into youtube and the like. they can promise they will get the best hits, the best ads because they are promising advertisers and marketers the best content. lots of money being spent hiring people. 2000 more employees to google. think of the new growth in the play store, hotel booking software. remember the acquisitions.
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>> welcome back to "on the move ." i am jonathan ferro here in london. 30 minutes into your trading day and you can see what it looks like behind me. 0.6% afterwn by losses yesterday. what this means for relations between russia and pretty much everybody else, how that plays out, will it escalate? is this a reason to finally come to the table? manus cranny at the touch with three stocks to watch. takes the america tostantial news and markets provoke some kind of international reaction. let chicken on the airline stocks. iag bucking the trend.
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much more north atlantic traffic coming through there. these are the guys under pressure. air france, lufthansa. iag was down 3% yesterday. the funds of was down 2.3%. they were saying as much as we might not like it, when you have difficult market like these, be surprised that markets are not lower. go to bloomberg.com to pick up that interview. let's have a look at some names that reported results this morning. volvo trucks, asia demand up 6%. european demand is where they saw a real plummet, down nearly 9%. a note.g industries ran that tells you everything you need to know in terms of the really a la of the of the economic recovery. ericsson, we have the year maker
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with second-quarter sales beating. you can sell as much product as you want. ericsson up 8.9%. finally, electrolux. most of their business is done in the kitchen. they beat in terms of numbers. usa demand will rise by around 4%. they are sticking with that. exchangewith foreign with a dramatic drop in terms of how much foreign exchange. by 75% goingl drop into the third quarter. >> i know a man that is doing up his kitchen. >> i know a lot about electrolux. >> he is called manus cranny. don't ask him about it.
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here are the top headlines. ecb finance president victor constancio says some banks will fail the asset review. i spoke to him yesterday in frankfurt. >> if you use the word failing as some banks being below the threshold that we defined in the asset quality review and the stress test, yes, it is to be expected that banks will come below those thresholds. >> fantastic interview with the vice president yesterday. really detailed breakdown of what is happening. elsewhere, israel has begun a ground offensive in the gaza strip in an effort to stop a 10 day barrage of air strikes. last night, heavy artillery. this is the first significant ground operation in gaza since 2009. the tenants have infiltrated israel through what israel says is a network of tunnels dug under the border.
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of 298 peopley dead after a malaysian passenger jet was shot down over eastern ukraine. the government in kiev blames the crash on pro-russian rebels. the separatists are denying the accusation. the blame game started immediately. ukraine's foreign minister spoke to us this morning. >> we intercepted a number of foreign calls between the terrorists who were talking plane.he we are translating these phone calls in english and other languages and we will post it on the internet and news channels to provide the clear proof of who shot down the plane. >> and we have that video and audio now. this one has english subtitles. there is a discussion about the confusion over why a civilian airliner was flying through a
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war zone and a discussion that there must have been spies on board. the ukrainian government released the tape and bloomberg had no way to verify its content. russian president or is yeltsin says the responsibility lies with ukraine. he says the government created the strife that led to the chaos in the east. lots of accusations back and forth. ryan chilcote joins us from the ukraine capital for more. lay out the case that pro-russian insurgents are behind this. what is the evidence behind the blame? starts with what the ukrainian government is saying. intercepted phone calls between one pro-russian militant on the ground and a russian. this is what the ukrainian government is saying, a russian military intelligence official. they are playing this audio recording on ukrainian television nonstop for the last
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12 hours. i have watched it. you clearly here a fighter on the ground take responsibility for bringing down this plane. it sounds like he is at the crash site. the alleged russian military official asks him if there are any signs of weapons to which the fighter says, no, it looks like this was a civilian aircraft. we even found the backpack of an indonesian student. he names the university. he repeats, it looks like it was a civilian airliner. that would definitely be one piece of evidence that the ukrainians would point to to say that it was the insurgents behind this. the other piece of evidence they would highlight is that just after flight 17 went down, one of the rebel leaders -- and there are more than just a couple rebel leaders -- posted a
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message on a russian social media site taking responsibility, bragging really about taking down ukrainian military transport plane. that was right after flight 17 went down. obviously we can't verify the authenticity of that posting and the posting was in fact removed. a lot of people are looking at the coincidence, wondering if this was a mistake. but he was taking down a military plane and took down flight 17. the last piece of evidence the ukrainians .2 is the history over the last couple of weeks where you have the insurgents in the east of the country taking down more and more ukrainian military aircraft at ever greater altitudes using this surface to air missile system that the russians called buc which was designed back in 1979. the way this would work normally is people would get to the crash site, they would sift through
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the wreckage, find the black box and there would be a national investigation if not an international investigation. this plane went down smack in the middle of a war zone which is now controlled by insurgents. there are negotiations underway. for a cease-fire that would last somewhere between two and four days. those negotiations are expected to resume in a couple hours. officials and osc would be allowed access to the site. those agreements haven't been made yet. we are going to have to see whether we ever get an objective investigation of the crash site itself. >> thanks, ryan. we will speak to you later on. reliabilityhe lead insurer of that crashed jet. hans nichols joins us now from berlin. sadly a familiar situation to malaysian jets and the malaysian
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company itself. 370 went missing in march. what does this mean for allianz? >> we don't know yet. this question of whether or not who caused this is of crucial importance. the germans are calling for an independent investigation. allianz is the lead insurer but there is a separate insurance policy if the downfall of the plane was because of war or terrorism. that is held by aetrium underwriting group. this is all according to the london-based insurance broker e.on. cost of thisce the jet at $97.3 million. we saw a similar question with the malaysia 370 flight because there again there was a separate policy if it turned out that it was terrorism. an entirely different rule sets in. we are looking at shares of
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allianz. they are down 2.3%. malaysian airlines was clobbered initially. they were down almost 11%. they are creeping back up now. thank you very much. great work. we are going to turn to one of the cop corporate stories. under british takeover rules, abbvie has until 5:00 p.m. today to make a formal offer for shire. joining us now to discuss what could be a down to the wire deal is the head of european pharma research. welcome. are we going to get a deal? >> it is very likely we will see an announcement given that shire announced they were happy to sit down and discuss and accept the offer or propose the offer contingent upon a few other details. the cash component of the deal could go up slightly. it is very likely -- if it
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isn't, there will most likely be an extension announced. >> outside of this, you see the incentives for why this takeover is going to happen. you bring the tax rate down to around 22%, 13%, a fantastic incentive. why don't the u.s. do something about this? >> in the obama budget, they had tried to change the limit, the 20%shold to no more than owned by foreign shareholders. they tried to make that 50%. the entire budget was shut down. there will be a number of and aial tax evasions number have already been agreed. $20u.s. treasury spends billion in tax revenues over the next decade. there is increasing pressure in the u.s. one of the main reasons is because the republicans are unlikely to want this.
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they want a complete overhaul of the u.s. tax system, not just on this one part of it. that is what they are trying to get. >> if they agree with democrats on anything, they will not be reelected. when you look at the chance that we could get some legislation that goes through retroactively, what are the chances these deals will have to be scrapped? >> some of these deals have in their contracts a clause which says if the law changes, there is no penalty for the acquirer to walk away. that could happen over the next six to 12 months. considering how long the u.s. takes. i think it may be difficult. >> when we look at pfizer, they didn't get a deal done. are they going to come back for another bite? >> i think it is likely they will come back. they were allowed to make one phone call to astrazeneca.
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>> just the one. >> to the one phone call. they were allowed to state a new price. if astrazeneca rejects that price, then pfizer has to wait until november 26 to come back. if they come back then, it all becomes public. if astrazeneca rejects, the shareholders will not be happy. it is 50-50 as to whether or not we see something. >> when we look at premiums being paid here, i are you concerned about some of these big deals being overpriced? the 45% premium for shire, normally the premium is 30%. there is definitely some froth out there particularly in the mid-cap arena. however, two facets.
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one is the tax evasion angle. the u.s. has cash they went to repatriate. they are driving up the values of asset prices in europe. >> how can you price them when you know what they are doing and get a tax deal? >> it is very difficult to compete on that price. >> thank you very much. airext, shares of malaysian fell the most in nine weeks today on the news that flight 17 was shot down over ukraine. we will head to asia to look into the troubled company's response. ♪
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>> welcome back. this is "on the move." the latest on malaysian air strategy comes just four months after that as parents of flight 370. investors now selling on the news once again. haslinda amin has been reporting extensively this year. i guess the question coming into airlines survive this latest incident? straws could be the last for malaysia airlines. the carrier is beyond unlucky. it was already looking week following 370. months,edies in four
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few airlines will be able to survive that. especially not malaysia airlines , already deep in losses. $1.5 billion in total over the past three years. the stock is down today as much as 13%. 8%.t now 7% to over six months, down by 15%. if you take a look at its funds, it has enough for only one year. what happens after that is anyone's guess. analysts we spoke to are not liking it. maybank says it is a no-brainer. so malaysia airlines shares. 13 out of 15 say the same thing. sell. >> it might be premature but what do we know about the compensation that is going to go out to some of these passengers or their families? >> it is an important issue. pretty premature, yes. it depends on the circumstances
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of the crash. that will dictate whether it will be responsible for compensation or not. some experts are estimating it would cost billions of dollars. with this incident coming hot on , malaysiaof mh370 airlines could be sinking deeper in financial burden. there is speculation malaysia airlines may be forced into bankruptcy. incidents among the worst in aviation history, that may be too much to bear. it is a tragic day for malaysia. it certainly is a tragic day for malaysia airlines. >> a tragic day for everyone involved. haslinda amin, thank you so much. former u.s. secretary of state hillary clinton says it was probably pro-russian insurgents who shot down the passenger jet over ukraine. in an interview with charlie rose, clinton said the onus is on europe to respond.
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>> the first question is, what does europe do? the united states has been very clear in both its criticism of russia and putin, its support for paresh bingo and the new -- for poroshenko and the new ukrainian government. there has just been a new round of sanctions. europeans havee tried to figure out the best way forward. i was recently in europe. a lot of questions about whether or not russia was really the aggressor, whether or not putin was really dangerous, how could that be evaluated -- from my perspective and i have the benefit of not being in the government, if there is evidence linking russia to this, that should inspire the europeans to do much more on three counts. one, toughen their own sanctions. immediately accelerate efforts and announced they are
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doing so to find alternatives to gazprom.g --azprom. -- third, do more in concert with us to support the ukrainians. there has to be more help on their borders to prevent this porous border allowing russians to go back and forth and insurgents to do the same. do more to help their military obtain or equipment, better training. the ukrainian military under poroshenko has been much more focused but nobody kids themselves. if russia keeps waiting in on behalf of the insurgents, there is more that needs to be done. put food in on notice that -- putin on notice that he has gone too far. europeans have to be the ones to take the lead on this. it was a flight from amsterdam umpur.la l
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there should be outrage and european capitals. >> you can hear more of hillary clinton's conversation tomorrow night at 10:00 p.m. on bloomberg television. "the pulse" is coming up at the top of the hour. anna edwards joins us with a look at what is next. >> we will continue to monitor all of the situations on the ground in ukraine. ryan chilcote on the ground for us there. broadertalk about the implications for geopolitics and how this is going to impact on the global economy. we will be speaking to euro control. getill certainly want to answers to questions around why aircraft were allowed to fly in that part of eastern ukraine. how decisions are going to be made about whether other aerospace needs to be closed. we will also be chatting with the ceos of electrolux and ericsson. we will talk about their numbers and get their take on the
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situations in russia and eastern europe, how this impacts their business and how might geopolitical tensions continue to increase with sanctions being ramped up yet again. how might have that -- how might that have any impact? we will also talk about brazil and latin america. up are they managing to keep with the big changes we are seeing? flow of news around m&a and consolidation in this increasingly wireless world. all of that will be the focus of that interview. >> sounds good, thank you very much. stay with us. ♪
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>> welcome back. i am jonathan ferro. nearly an hour into today's trading station. check out the equities in the first hour trading right now. you see a lower start to trading. the ftse 100 down by 0.3%. the cac a little bit lower. losses today. really it is the russian equity market that has been hit hardest. it was down 20% at one point this year. then up 20%. you have to have a strong stomach to trade what is going on in russia and the ukraine now. "the pulse" is up next with anna edwards. you can catch up with me on twitter. ♪
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>> ukraine accuses pro-russian rebels of shooting down the malaysia airlines jet killing everyone on board. we have the latest from kiev and pur.a lum israel's prime minister is set to speak as soldiers and tanks move into the gaza strip. in company news, ericsson shares surge as profit beat estimates. we are joined by the ceo of the wireless network giant. a warm welcome to "the pulse
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