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tv   On the Move  Bloomberg  August 7, 2014 3:00am-4:01am EDT

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amount of troops on the ukrainian border. we will find out when you throw to that. >> french wine will be allowed and european vegetables will not. i will talk about the details and what we know about the russian man on food imports. we will look at that and a lot more. >> nestlé and deutsche telekom imprest and -- impressed with recent results and there is worry over instability that could have a huge negative impact. andlé says that the russian ukraine showed growth. i will be back for more in just a little bit. back to you.
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>> the equities in europe are opening up and will get our attention. before the open, the bond yield what is the market trying to tell us? and that isan open with manus cranny. >> the equity markets are showing a little bit of trouble and there was the green screen. down and thesa's financials on the downside. again, europe is under pressure and this is a point of argument for the rest of europeans. we have more bad news and they are rising. a compound on industrial you take that
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within germany and that begins to change the argument. the big driver and the move to quantitative easing. pimco and hewith said it was 50-50 and we will wait and see about the rhetoric today from mario draghi with russia and how much they have impacted the story of growth. reports that the impact of sanctions from russia and european sanctions into russia offvice versa could knock .4%. that yount improvement are seeing in european stories andd be wiped out quickly caroline will break that down a little later. you have a rise and that is good news.
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i have not seen anything from russian exposure. is goinga company that $5.1 billion with earnings. china will grow, in their view. that is good news for everybody capital istrol of the holy grail and is what is happening at rio tinto. a $11ave said it would be billion. next year, they will spend a billion dollars and let's have a look at that. downussie dollar is and unemployment rose to a 12 year high. unemployment in australia topped
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out united states of america and the view from the markets is traders raising on the net mood and there was an estimate of 16% probability of another rate cut and that has risen 100% and now there is a 36% possibility of a rate cut. we will leave it there. >> the key week. you can apologize later. it is early. welcome. a lower open. we will not talk about it yet. yield a selloff in high and my questions for you are behind thewhat is sell off in the credit? >> we have specific issues with high yield that have driven it
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wider and it is relatively constructive, particularly this. it is a pretty significant move and you pointed about -- out outflows and the fundamentals for us are supportive of high yield. we would say it is below a historical average and we would say that we are constructive on the asset class. >> they may be low or below average. , are you not concerned? i look at bond yields dropping and that means they are going to be low yield and high liquidity. bighe asset classes not as as the government market and i do not think that liquidity is the issue driving it here. there is concern around a low growth environment and the
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people who got into the asset class did not understand the risk. there are a lot of things to be worried about and that has prompted the selloff. describeow we would it. >> let's talk about valuations. the spread between high yield and investment-grade were low and it begs the question of value in the trade right now. >> it is hard to describe it and it is reasonable, giving underlying fundamentals. if you look at what is happening 5% ofefinancing, you have the high-yield market refinancing by the end of next year and there is not a lot of pressure on high-yield companies. picked up.data has what is important? is it data or what comes with it? what are you concerned about?
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and strongerinked economic data, certainly, we expect to see that and it is going to create a change of mood. it will create a change of communication strategies and we think it will be at the jackson data in the or the u.s. will have to start toditioning the market interest rate -- raise interest rates. >> we will leave that open. stay with us. here is what is coming up. russia retaliates with a multibillion-dollar ban on food imports and that is something we will watch closely with reactions off the back of the latest results. deal or no deal. it went from having too big to none in one week. i will be back on twitter.
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>> welcome back. this is "on the move."
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time to bring you something important. check this out. it is down. are between 4.7 billion euros. it is down. guess who they are blaming? russia. that is what everybody does right now. we are going to talk about russia and vladimir putin. he has retaliated against sanctions and issued restrictions against food importing and he says that it will protect national interest. what do we know and will the russians still be able to get their champagne? >> they will. on that thing, i will say that building a training center for russian troops is what they have had to cancel and germany canceled an export permit for that. that happened one week or two
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ago. they said it will not be part of it and that was going to account for 20 million of their profit so that's why you have that tonight. the penny has dropped an issue has fallen. the import ban and the original headline was alarming. you had 43 billion in food that was getting imported last year and you go to the supermarket and you get the impression that foreign products are ubiquitous. actually, this is a story where you have to look at a fine -- the fine print. willwe know is that russia ban fruit and vegetable imports from western europe. poland and good for they knew that a couple of days ago. thatf the catch phrases is
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an apple a day keeps vladimir putin that way. those apples will not go to russia anymore and it is bad news for the netherlands and germany. european countries, in the sense that they export vegetables and fruit to russia. it is bad for the united states. exportera big chicken and chicken is often a victim of trade wars. americans are not as dependent on exports of chicken to russia as they used to be. look. the original headline was alarming and we will get the fine print today. the russian government has said that they will issue a list of banned food sometime this afternoon. >> here is a question for you. an approvaln with rating that will go lower if
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food prices go up. >> yes. when you ban imports, it leads to inflation and causes inflation to accelerate. you know, this is a guy who probably spends a portion of every day thinking about inflation and the reason for his electorate. the support in the country comes are pensioners and they often indexed to inflation. he estimate sure they can buy groceries and he watches it closely. it is too early to say that this is inflationary and it is something that people will be watching. it is interesting to see what is on the list. we arty no that wine is not on the list and it is one of those things you cannot substitute in russia. there is russian wine out there and there is not an awful lot
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that you cannot replace today, except for one. we'll have to see how huge an impact this has on the economy. >> i will leave you with that. markets talk about the politics secure.a and he is nobody can really tell you what he's going to do that. .y question to you is this >> you need to look the fundamentals and see what is going on. estimates range of and they are likely to be small at the margins. we have seen soft numbers out of germany and that is interesting.
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in part, they have put in place in septemberolicy and december. they will look at the impact not do anything dramatic. if we still have a weakness, it is on the table and it is still an issue. >>. about the program. it is almost credit easing. you see germany is terrible and greek inflation. is demand for credit going to be here this year? >> what extent do the banks take this up? we see this teacher to the economy and that takes time. concerned with numbers below inflation rate. it will be on the top of their howda and we want to see much of that credit gets through and we will not know. europeanmain with equities. why? >> it is valuation and people
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talk about europe and pessimistic tones. the valuation reflects not a lot of optimism and it is a valuation story. >> andrew wilson is a man of his words and will come back to tell me how wrong i am. thank you for joining us this morning. coming up, a share buyback. ban a russian food import take a bite out of profits? we will take a look after the vet -- break.
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>> welcome back in a company we are watching is a money giant is maintaining their forecast and the chief executive spoke to bloomberg in an exclusive interview. talked about the price of gold. >> it is a good number and the downside is driven by the industry that is continuing to we aregold at a loss and not disciplined as an industry and we are not in a good place as a gold mining industry. i am sure that the supply tightens up as the industry
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struggles to make a profit and you have drivers and big surprises that chases investors into gold. my feeling is that it is a good price. >> you have been there almost 20 years. >> i am not a big one. companies that make profit. crazy andustry went let us to problems that we are at today. you are number four at the market cap level. do you think you want to be number one? >> we do not have any debt and would make a big difference to where we invest. find one would like to or a quietposits
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one. >> you are in africa and you say you make a change in the areas that you invest. we know sierra leone and liberia. do you have prevention things in place. is and theeveryone big thing is education and awareness. discipline. andave done standard thanks none of our contractors are allowed to bring people in from infected areas or countries. the key is that there is a lot of migration in that part of the world and it is about education and teaching people to be careful to no longer shake hands and wash their hands and be aware. speed's bring you up to with other companies. shifted and they boosted copper production.
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and increased dividends profit visibility forecast were caught after the first half sales fell. the sales decline was because of slumping demand and the sportswear maker operates and markets at a range of 6.5%. america, check this out, nears a record settlement and probes into the sales of mortgage-backed bonds. or 17ay pay 16 billion billion in cash. that is according to a person familiar with the negotiation. it is still being negotiated. another company being watched is nestlé and they have announced a share buyback and growth beat estimates. the company sees growth in
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russia and caroline hyde joins us now. >> amazing. not one word of caution in earnings. this a good growth in ice cream. i never knew that russia is the second biggest market for ice boutiquesthey have instead -- and russia. creations, like mushroom cream soup with maple-walnuts ice cream. it doesn't for the russians. so, there is to cap doing well. they say the ukraine is resilient and there is growth despite political turmoil in the ukraine. that is phenomenal and we may see it in the next quarter with weakening of the currency
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hitting consumer sentiment and overall demand. russiand ourselves that produces 90% of the goods in russia and they are made in russia. they do not face a ban that some have unleashed on eu producers. instead, it is organic sales growth that is up and it beast -- and beat estimates. they are doing better in europe and asia is strong, as well. the key message is the share buyback. 4% oft is almost 3% or outstanding shares. we haveall amount and been waiting for this to happen. l'oreal. a stake in many say, what are you going to do with it? we want it back.
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they doubled that. it was the first time in three years. >> the stocks are up. thank you for joining us. decisions at, big 1:30, london time. i will bring you the press conference in full and on the move continues in two minutes. if you want to talk to me on twitter, please. so much to talk about. with a lower up open and the ftse is down. .6% and there is more we did out of germany. of thes an ugly picture euro zone and i will put the question to the man. stay with us.
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>> welcome back to on the move the city of london and this is what it looks like right and itl the dax is down is off. and is iteakness about geopolitical risk? we will add up all of that later on. let's go to ryan chilcote and the stocks to watch. >> the biggest listed bank in portugal.
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and ryan mccall is an interesting one and was supposed to produce a combat training facility for the russian army. the russian government change permission and cut the forecast on the back of it. that is what you see it down. the green andn they have an oilfield in malaysia and the oilfield in malaysia. they say we may get some black gold earlier than we thought. >> thank you. let me bring you the top headlines this morning. ban food going to imports from the u.s. and eu -- eu. the restrictions are for one year and could hurt the u.s. and eu food companies.
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problem for the man. rate is at a high for the first time since 2007 band the reserve bank of australia will cut interest rates further to spur growth. we have policy decisions from the ecb and the bank of england and both are expected to do nothing. over thed be split timing of the next rate increase. people whoring you are excited about the central-bank decision. reporteru.k. economics at bloomberg news. the video of the industry. i am excited him is the ecb and i have been -- a non-event?
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they have a lot more to contend with and they have russia, russian food imports sanctions coming and sanctions coming. there is a slowdown in europe and germany and they made the thet with the ecb that provocation of things could push the ecb towards quantitative easing and pimco said that they are 50-50 on the issue and what is happening in reality with inflation and the reality of the target. his onord that man said the case and it will be more interesting. >> 65 months of no change. >> surely the argument is not about why we should put rates up. the argument is why we should not be.
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>> there are ways of looking at it. , there areyou said reasons to be very cautious about when you make the trade increase and you do not want to undermine the recovery. hand, it has been a long time and this be the fastest-growing economy for 2014. you look at it from that perspective and you concert to think about the emergency settings. >> you have growth that is suspected to be fast and 19 consecutive months of expansion. you have to start taking about the next crisis and if we have not normalize rates, how do we respond to it? a former bank of england policymakers said that if they want to do gradual rate increases, they need to start now.
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things come up with a need to address. if they have not started raising rates by now, they will need to look them up more quickly. >> what about wages? he is great to have an argument with. paper andtten his warned about a lack of momentum and wages and bonuses. they are the lowest on record in germany. >> this is a key argument for keeping the rates on hold. they are looking at indicators and what is bubbling up is wages and the point is that if wages are not going, you will not see the pressure. if you settle consumers with interest ratings when wages are cost ofing, that is a living squeeze. >> i am excited and i would like
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to have it noted for the record. i love this. watching fedime policymakers and we have to start doing the same thing with the bank of england, as well. >> i love that mark carney goes from three to five. he is the hawk of the month. it is martin and he is up there. irish not turn it into an racing commentary. i think it is good and i think if it comes through, it is healthy and it takes the market forward. andakes the market forward it creates what mark carney had wanted to do. it is creating expectancy.
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>> this is the month we get it? >> it could be. he is one of the key leaders of the idea that the bank may need to move away from the settings sooner rather than later. me that it may not be this month. certainly, they are calling for the increase and they may. >> do you think that is what mark carney is about when they say they are not prepared? formarket is not prepared what is going to come. >> he has mentioned that over the last couple of months and the volatility is too low. he things investors do not appreciate the risks in the market. a fewy have delivered reforms here and there. a lot of people think they are quite weak.
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what is the outlook for monetary policy? >> it will take some time and that came in in june. you have to give the market time seeing someey start cooling in the market, they will say you can keep rates as the last line of defense. >> let's talk about communication and the inflation report next week. we get minutes. how do they start communicating the rate rise is imminent? there is a risk that they could capitulate and it could be a shock for a lot of people. >> the minutes would give signals and it is not fair to say there are no signals whatsoever. mark carney said that people underprice the risk and if you have the governor of the bank of england mentioning that, it puts
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the market on notice that this is something that they need to be thinking about. the inflation report next week is a new growth forecasts and we will see what they say on wages because they are looking for aggressive figures for the end of the year and, maybe we will see the wage growth that you have mentioned and then pulling it back. >> i have a final one. who needs to do more? the ecb or the bank of england? ultimately, the ecb has to do more and they will be forced into doing that with geopolitics. i do not see the bank of england being forced into action. if they do not need to, they will not. they have a whole new career ahead. do you think i could apply for a job? >> do it.
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>> thank you for joining us this morning. move, investors are sprinting away and we have telecoms rounded up after the break. stay with us.
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>> a slight profit increase on germany and in the u.s., as well as and we saw a collapse in the merger. we are joined by caroline hyde. let's the numbers are not flabbergasting. we saw sales down and you stack it up against competitors. they are doing well. the mobile giant is that a fall in sales. the fact that deutsche telekom good,ep sales flat is given the uproar and competition they are facing at home. a third of sales come from germany and we are about to get stiff competition from them
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merging units. they have intense price competition across the board. what is interesting is investing. they are scaling down investing and it is interesting. they have been dressing up the unit and investing to make it more attractive in the future. they are scaling up investment and bringing the money home. they are making the network .etter in germany and >> forget about the numbers. they have been thinking about the u.s. units. >> that have been trying to sell the unit for the past few years and they get close. the deal will fall away. and hasas been bidding
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put out $40 per share on the table for t-mobile. regulation got the better of them and the u.s. did not want to see the number of players go to three. that would have happened if that had happened. they want for key players. four key players. deutsche telekom thinks that is a measly amount and, in the background, they talk about gathering their troops to get others involved. improved bids and other u.s. layers. what about dish? we think they could. lenovo could have an offer. i do not think that deals are off. deutsche telekom has to be confronted by the fact that this
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is a unit that they have to run on a standalone basis. they are ramping up users by none hundred 8000 and they are winning. they are having to sell a contract cheaper to get that kind of dominance with market share. that costs and so does investment in the network. they are keen on getting rid of it. back to you. >> we stick with deutsche telekom and the principal analyst. a look at the numbers. let's talk about germany. profit is gaining. have we gotten to a point where the market is saturated. >> we look at the german numbers that they did say relatively well, compared to the completion.
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and theyis in port and 5% anden down almost telefonica was down almost 4.5%. so, they are outperforming local markets. that is good news. the most important market is where they are putting their money. something that did well is investing in the next generation have aogy, where they long-term game and they want to squeeze more out of their customers by upgrading technology. broadband.-fast typically, a company looks to expand the core market and the things the question of why they would want to sell the u.s. unit. >> they wanted to sell it for a
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the question is why they have not been able to do so. couple of years and they have been dressing up the unit nicely. ands growing with customers our looks are almost to perfection. the 4g. it is fantastic. but, they are unable to sell it at the price that they want. they want to sell it at a premium price because sprint could have realized many synergies with local players and consolidating the markets. .his will obviously not happen >> the regulators are not happy. andhe number is lower now buyer is note new going to have the same benefit.
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>> i want to talk about the biggest loser on twitter. he thinks it is funny that the ceo -- the deal collapsed. sprint is without a capability to really challenge verizon. was the biggest loser? >> it is a good thing that the ceo of t-mobile is able to laugh about it. i think both of them are losers. thebig winner is authorities and at&t in verizon. massivel see it still third players not coming into the market. in a way, it is good for them. both t-mobile and sprint have to carry on with the challenger .trategy it is not going to be easy to go
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ahead in a smaller scale for both. >> the final question is what is next. offer or doesthe t-mobile go alone? not, peoplethey do will have to. no choice. >> that is the ceo. think you for joining us this morning and it is a pleasure. the pulse is coming up and guy joins us with a look at what is ahead. >> we will be there and we will look at the conversation. maybe dish could be a buyer. foodve to talk about fighting in europe and what happened with europe. that is a subject worth covering. we have a story out this morning and we will explore it. we are talking about central like and i know you
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central banks. we will talk about the bank of england and schultz will talk to us about the ecb. we have a sub-zero situation in germany and it sounds like a saucy way of saying that there will not be qe with the way the bond market is reacting. we will keep an eye on the stocks and portugal that are down hard as morning. we will keep an eye on it. it is a penny stock. >> mario is going to be asked about that a couple of time. >> i would think it would be front and center. >> thank you very much. watches, thetheir swiss engineers are trying to perfect a coffee michigna state
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win over asian consumers. -- a coffeet machine to win over asian consumers. we talk about that next.
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>> it may be the key to start the morning. i am partial and it is a recipe for job growth and hans nichols gets around. we have a company that has grown with starbucks. pharmaceutical.
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in a sense, it is. the engineers perfect the dose of caffeine in starbucks. allow goal is to untrained priestess to make your favorite drink with a press of a button. all of these are destined to china and the idea is to get them hooked on drinks. they need to be tested. let us give it a go. predict howto you mayit will grow, want to put this in a village and under surveillance. ago, starbucks had 20,000 employees and right now, we have 200. starbucks has 200,000. >> the wages are high and the workers are skilled. -- swiss efficiency on
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the assembly line. i am not qualified to use it. there may be a limit to growth in china. tummies.my -- >> the growth of the coffee industry is proving that they as a mils in the -- k-based beverage. >> let's check in on the markets and you have a lower opening across the board. you look the last month or so and it is down 8%. it is getting crushed. we have weak data. what else did we have? banks lawyers. the debate.ia and continue it with me online. let's go to twitter.
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the pulse is next with guy johnson.
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>> russia fight back. we will sell you what it means for them. of america has a $17 billion settlement over its role in the financial crisis. sub-zero. a yield goes negative. this is ahead of another interesting meeting.

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