>> europe's beer battle. carlsberg cuts its forecast. heineken numbers up next. m >> the bank of england releases its latest -- of when the bank will make a move. waiting to see on the bid for the company which values it at more than 2 billion pounds. welcome to "countdown." i am mark barton.

>> i am manus cranny. we are waiting for the numbers. >> with bated breath. >> you have the carlsberg numbers. when heineken comes down we can go to that. carlsberg has cut its full-year profit outlook. the earlier forecast was for adjusted net income to rise by low single-digit percentages third what they said is adjusted net income won't fall by mid-to high single digit percentage. what we care some much about carlsberg, not only because it is the world's fourth biggest brewer, russia is its biggest market. what it says about russia is fascinating. market volume in russia down by 6%-7% in the first half. its market share has fallen sees8 basis points and it the russian beer market down by a high single-digit percentage.

its earlier forecast was a mid-single-digit drop. revenue threatened by political tension over ukraine. the weakening global and government efforts to curb drinking. we'll come back to carlsberg in a second. heineken is all yours. >> can i be a seamless as that? first-half consolidated revenue comes in slightly ahead of market estimates. operating profit excluding items -- 1.4 5 billion euros. the estimate was for 1.32. it beat on operating profit from heineken. ew byic revenue gr 4.6%. it is a different story with heineken. all of thevirtually trading has gone into a global basket called russia.

diversification is the hallmark of heineken. 60% of operating profit comes from emergent markets. --tern u.s. and the u.s. western europe and the u.s. for the driver in the first quarter. 1.5 4 billion euros. the estimate was 1.32. drivenlume rises by 3.1% by growth in africa, middle east, the americas, and western europe. inroved performance trend the second quarter in the asia-pacific. we have a group euro volume rising by three point -- root beer volume rising by 3.2%. that seems to be the overall topline. >> it is interesting you mention emerging markets. what carlsberg is trying to do is push into the likes of a ship to make up for this week are russian markets.

it is pushing into asia and new territories to try to plant -- supplant the pressure from russia. we have seen a gain in market share in asia and also it sees the asian beer market in line with 2013. western europe, which is important -- i think it accounts for 58% of its sales. beer marketeuropean will be slightly down. asia, share gains in europe is flat. >> the growth outlook coming from heineken -- a expect a positive volume development over the remainder of the year. a different story to what your guidance is on heineken. they targeted a year on year improvement of operating margin of approximately 40 basis point.

margin expansion is expected to be above median target. carlsberg as to cut. heineken, where would you be without it? >> two very different stories and it is all down to russia. >> i will check into that number and see where i can find the russian element. let's talk about the challenges facing the beer industry. let's go straight to hans nichols in berlin. did we leave you anything? >> it is like you guys have drank the entire beer and left me with the dregs. i have not heard mark barton this excited about talking about. this early in the morning. rs.is about longer -- lage bitters man. -- barton is a bitters man. sales in western europe are flat. a trend that you would see it western pickup for

heineken because the dutch and german team did so well in the world cup. you see a little bit of a world cup affect. they had a pretty good spring in western europe. that did not happen. we can read into that. you can say france did not progress that far, spain did not. those are big markets for heineken. in terms of the world cup affect, we are not seeing a huge impact on that. the weather plays a some impact. weather was not great in russia which is why you saw carlsberg down. it is mostly about geopolitical headwind and currency. in theecast cutting into high digital -- high digit single digits. these are difficult numbers for carlsberg, the world's third largest brewer. heineken is fourth. if i'm wrong, i expect art and rton toect me -- ba correct me because he is a man

who knows his beers. >> he does indeed. >> well put. >> hans, we will come back you. we have two great interviews today. bloomberg will have the first interviews with heineken's ceo live from amsterdam. i will be doing that interview in over an hour. the carlsterview berg ceo later on "the pulse." the bank of england released their minutes from there latest policy committee meeting. barton and i -- >> we have been mulling it. >> i will give it to you. >> i know you know the stats, but i will share it with our

viewers. we would look at the last time there was dissent. to put it cleanly, since carney took over there has been no dissent. we have heard 3-d meetings before dissent. before carney, we have had 36 in total without dissent. the last dissent was in june last year when three members voted for more qe. marvin king was among them. they were outvoted by the majority. when talking about rate, the last time officials sent it was 2011. martin we'll and spencer dale voted for a court appointment. the last time the mp raised in 2007s back when six members voted for a hike. we have not had dissent since 2011. today could be significant. >> it is almost a year since we had forward guidance introduced by mark arnie. -- mark carney.

a great deal has been made of the inflation report. underemployment gave scope to hold off on raising rates. myday times ruined brunch. carney said it was something that might tempt us to raise rates. yesterday, 1.6%. there is a great article written on bloomberg view. it is called "calling mark carney." >> he has moved from an unreliable boyfriend to a fox in hedgehog's clothing. >> that means the hedgehog focuses on one critically important thing. for example, unemployment. the hedgehog changes his mind and focuses on something else. a fox is something that looks at different parameters. i think the cpi data was the

biggest shock. we have had a bit of an argument this morning as to which one of us will talk about the range of use. hawk-omiter.e zero means you are a dove, 10 means you are a hawk. it seems that the boe is balanced. >> we will have a guest from union credit who will take us o --ugh the hawkom hawkometer. wide range about a of use. we have not had a wide range of views. to see a dix terrorists central banker -- is he a dexterous central banker or is he someone who does not know where to go?

they change their focus and they approach us with a general approach to rates. if you change what you are looking at so often and and up misguiding the market, how in the name of goodness can you really tell the market to trust us? we are united in the gradual approach. >> on the matter of change, we have had three new members on the mpc. we have had the deputy governor joining us in july. kristin forms is an external member. there is a view that the changing of the guard slows division within a central bank. will they have initially the central bank go against the governor, who clearly wants to keep interest rates low for longer? many think they won't, but we shall found out today. twonteresting change -- women on the mpc at the moment. >> still to come, a reliable boyfriend.

ofancial group and head strategy -- stephen gallo will be here. we will see do them after the break. ♪

welcome back.

i am manus cranny. time now for company news. charter will be paid $300 million for failing to flag suspicious transaction. they had promised to report transactions as part of a settlement. apple stock closed at an all-time high as the company prepares to unveil new products including a wrist watch-like device. investors hope that products will jumpstart revenue growth. share,ose to over $100 a topping the record from september 2012 just before the iphone 5 went on sale. citigroup is considering exiting consumer banking in japan. the japanese broadcaster nhk reported. the bank is reviewing its options. citigroup gets most of its international revenue from

america. thefter the meeting of monetary policy committee to rates unchanged, were there any dissenters? we will find out at 9:30 london time when the minutes are released. stephen gallo joins us now. thank you for joining us. manus and i were discussing -- there have been 36 meetings of no dissent on interest rates. as that long time come to an end? >> possibly. there is a risk that one or two crewmembers of the mpc voted for a hike in august. what the hawks might say at this juncture is that asset price bubbles could use the economy to do that. they could jump in on the debate about slack. i don't think anyone has a firm idea of exactly how much slack

is left in the labor market and how much spare capacity there is. wages have been going down, which is something the doves -- wages have been week, i should say. it is something that the doves can lean on. you do not know how much slack is there. you do not want to be behind the curve if they start to pick up. >> that is the message that he was saying in "the sunday times," mark carney. we could raise rates ahead of a pickup in wages, which led many to accuse him once again of being a flip-flop or. you are more supportive of carney and the way he communicates it. >> hiking rates in the near term would be hedge of the view of the doves of wrong -- is wrong. -- icarney's rhetoric think the u.k. economy has done

exactly so far what the boe, what he wanted it to do. he has gretchen dared -- he has engineered a gradual softening of the market, higher market rates, and he has kept cpi inflation contained through the stronger pound. that mitigates the risk that something really goes wrong in the housing market with asset prices ahead of the may general election. i think it looks pretty good for him. using a combination of things like rhetoric, market rate expectations, sterling, that is getting your hands dirty and that is using variables to your advantage to bring an outcome that you would like to see. managed to disrupt the market -- throw a little bit of confusion into the market, but warning that rates possibly are going to raise. do not be surprised when that happens. >> the thing about where rates

would be today -- we have seen it in the bond market because of geopolitical tensions. think where rates would be if we did not get the june spike as a result of the mansion house speech. those lower rates could provide further juice to the housing market. the macro prudential tightening ushered in last year. >> that could abate if the geopolitical situation improves. >> that is right. >> to bring it back to the currency, you have mentioned sterling once or twice and there have been post-mansion house, we had the spike in sterling. we got some back. is sterling oversold? >> i think it is a better buy point 65.55 and one 50. is thetening in sterling

situation and balance of payments and provides insurance that inflation does not fall too low via the pass through and import past channel. that is where i think we are in the moment. >> we will come back to in a moment. stephen gallo. we will focus on fed minutes and thee released jackson hole meeting taking place over the weekend. ♪

>> welcome back to "countdown." i am manus cranny. -- with us is stephen gallo. let's get right to one set of minutes which come out a little bit later which are the federal reserve. we've had it from charlie plosser. voices of dissent from fisher. what are you thinking? >> the overall measures from fed normalization is not really going to change until after quantitative easing ends and we see how the economy and financial markets adjust to the fed from thethe system. slack is still a major issue. andink there are staffers rate-setters are looking at the

economy in the real-time like they never have before. no one has a firm idea of what is causing low wage pressures, what is causing the dropout of people and participants in labor force. >> that is part of janet ,ellen's dass board -- -- work 7.5 million workers who want part-time work that is raising the number of unemployment. those dominant in your thinking? >> what if the gaps between labor and capital is widening because there has been so much focus over the last decade and a half on earnings per share, on share price appreciation so that now labor, in terms of how it is compensated for the work it does in the economy, is just looked at with less regard? that is something that is important. it is not related to the typical

technical factors that monetary policy or a rate-center may look at that. >> janet yellen addresses jackson hole on friday. she is expected to say there is plenty of room of improvement in the labor market. mario draghi also speaks at a key lunchtime address. will he address fears of lack of growth and much-needed to leave? -- needed qe? >> they are waiting for measures they have announced rigorously to feed through. the t l o's are a big issue. in the near-term, i am not sure there will have been time enough for him to announce anything substantial on friday. for them to do more in the near term, i think they need to extract more reforms out of paris and rome, evidence that they are pushing through

structural reforms to get the bundesbank onside. >> outlook for europe in the meantime? >> i think the euro-dollar will be more supportive than the consensus believes. more resilient. i think divergences is popular in the market because of its theoretical simplicity as the u.s. grows more, the euro should therefore we can. i think the divergence story overlooks global interdependence. the spillover effects of the situation with russia and generally weak growth in the eurozone spills over to the united states and affects the fed's -- >> in the u.k., you said. >> i think the economy's feed on each other very much. another factor which i think the story ignores is dollar outflows. they will, and support global

growth in the form of a wider u.s. trade deficit over time. >> we are going to leave it there. great to get your input ahead of the minutes. stephen gallo. >> 6:26 in london. ♪

>> welcome back. i am as cranny. -- i am manus cranny. we wait for minutes from the bank of england. we will go to the asian currencies. dollar-won has fallen the most in a week. what will happen with jackson hole? will yellen me the call? the dollar is moving in that is why you are seeing the move in

emerging-market currencies. overseas, investors are buying more stock. you are just off the one-month 1015.59. let's have a look at euro-dollar. the overarching theme is one of dollar strength. that is the baseline upon which you are looking at this. you are just off a nine-month low for the euro and a nine-month high for the dollar. goldman sachs says the positions are moderate, supporting a move that the flow of money is about 20% of the overall positioning. it does depend on how hawkish those minutes are from the federal reserve this evening. matsui says that the dollar continues to be a buy. >> these are the top headlines. argentina's president is asking

pass a bill that on americana rule debt repayment. argentina defaulted last month. credit agents sued for full repayment rather on the discount been -- discounts suggested by argentina. in egyptian-brokered truce in the gaza strip has expired. rates have and air killed at least three. at least 50 rockets hit israeli territory and israel struck at least 25 targets in gaza. airlines are on alert as iceland's biggest volcanoes shows a sign of corruption. delta is among the carriers concerned about the busy north atlantic group. interruption in 2010 cosan ash

cloud that force carriers to cancel 10,000 flights. a recordo linde where 19 nobel prize economists are gathered for their annual meeting. chancellor angela merkel will be delivering a keynote thspeech. great interviews yesterday. >> thank you very much. if it looks cold, it is because it is. i won't complain because i am very excited about the day i had. let me give you a feel of what is on the agenda. employment --the unemployment. everyone seems to care about wages, the money in your pocket. i am sure everyone is happy about that. how much can monetary policy do about it and how much improvement after we seen since low record -- record low

interest rates have been there for the last seven years? what can monetary policy do? on ayou look at people lower income, they have not seen any growth at all. people on higher income have seen growth. what does that mean for inequality? is that being exacerbated by monetary policy right now? that is a number two big theme. inequality and the market dynamics. i have big guests to talk about it. >> mark and i have already covered the bank of england. i know the fed and that dotmatrix are your favorite subject. the minutes are later today and janet yellen leads the proceedings at jackson hole. issue of matter? bernanke was not making speeches over one or two of these meetings. crisis, the financial

that became a meeting for the rock stars of central banking. bernanke would come along and drop the policy bomb. the big hint about what would come next on the monetary policy side of things. this is a meeting that matters. look at the title of this meeting. it is reevaluating labor market dynamics. janet yellen and her colleagues have a decision to make. they have to look at the labor market and decide whether the issues are structural or cyclical. if they start thinking these issues are structural, there is not much the federal reserve can do. when she talks, you have to look for clues for the way she sees the labor market. that will give you a heavy hint about what will happen with monetary policy. not as big as it was, but a meeting that matters. >> we look forward to that interview and the rest of your guests from linnde. -- in itse turns its

results. $1.9 billion. for more on the challenges of the mining industry, paul date joins us now. -- paul gate joins us now. you have a checklist. let's see what you say starting with the african copper assets. >> african copper is one of the aspects that differentiates glencore from a asset perspective. they are one of the few large cap diversified miners that is in zambia. what we have seen is old world copper in latin america. the costs and grades have started to move against the major mining company. glencore is unique and central africa. people look to that as the mainstay that differentiates them from the likes of rio tinto. >> a big part of it is business.

one of the underperforming commodities this year. how is that going to look for earnings? >> that is going to have a negative drag on earnings. that is the second-largest contributor behind copper to the revenue of the mining, the industrial assets in glencore. we have seen coal price, under pressure. not just this year, but the last couple of years. the market will be looking at those numbers. how much cost has glencore been able to strip out of the coal business, particularly those assets they inherited in the merger and see whether that cost deflation is offsetting the cost declines that we have seen to allow the business to be due to -- to be able to contribute to the earnings. i think people will pay attention to it. reward had a meeting to shareholders. what do you reckon he will give the shareholders? this is the differentiating

factor between him and dhp? >> we saw las bambas. $6.5 billion, all in. that is the price they managed to get for that. the shareday, we saw price come under pressure. investors were looking for a return of capital, validation of the historic investment the company had made. one way of demonstrating that is returns of capital. bhp has passed on the mantle. it has been passed to glencore. will we see going core step up and deliver some of that $6.5 billion back to shareholders? i think they will want to get a balance sheet a bit, but the numbers could be a few billion dollars. i think people will be looking at that with significant interest. -- ie of the comments made want your insight. you know these people.

apart,, what sets us what sets glencore apart is that they are not the parent on iron. 88% of rio tinto comes from iron. should we be betting on that differentiation factor? he has coal under pressure, iron ore is under pressure. is that a good differentiation? >> i think it is. he is the only one of the major diversified that does not have a iron as the mainstay of his commodity. you have the full set of base metal exposure. copper, nickel, zinc. nickel and zinc have performed well this year. that will offset some of the pressure. -has been vocal -- ivan has been vocal about the pressure putting on the iron ore price due to the oversupply from the majors. >> they keep producing it, don't they? >> that is a strategy that has

worked so far. volume gains as offset price declines. it is a strategy that only has a rigid way to run. if the demand is not pick up in china, you question how far there is to push the price down before even the likes of rio tinto -- bhp with a low cost of operations -- really start seeing the impact of that. it is a differentiation for glencore. i think it will continue to be so going forward >> -- forward. >> they announced that the spin off of their division will be valued at 6.5 billion. aluminum, coal. will this be attractive to investors? does it provide long-term value for shareholders? >> i am somewhat skeptical. shareholders are going to get the same set of assets in a different package. before you had exposure to these

assets, you still have exposure. what changes? what is the incremental source of value creation from spending off this business unit? i struggle to see the case for a. of -- for it. and if you talk about people looking for exposure, you can always find a way to play any commodity the way you would like without having to take owne rship of this country. if you are looking for zinc exposure, there are better places to play. if you are looking out for aluminum exposure, why not buy a company? it is difficult to me to see why this asset would attract a premium rating. if you look at the history of it in the portfolio, its return on capital is lower than the rest of the portfolio. difficult for me to justify a premium rating. your assessment of commodities in general?

the s&p gsci. the gauge of commodity is down 5% in 2014. 30% below its oap. what is the outcome? >> this defines the bulls and the bears. where are we in the cycle? is this a cyclical downturn on the back of poor capital discipline from the mining investment and is it the supply side that has driven prices down or is it the end of a super cycle demand phenomenon, in which case we can see the prices continued to drift down? i'm somewhat more constructive on average. we have been more bullish, particularly for commodities like copper where we see real geological constraints on the supply side. over the next few years, we will see what the impact of those constraints will be on the

ability of the industry to continue satisfying demand without an uptick in price. >> if you have to make the farney,etween ivan and where is the next big move? isrything that i am reading on a bullish sentiment that we will get a wash of cash in terms of buyback. >> i think we will have to wait a while. all numbers -- all eyes are on glencore to see the wall of cash. i think rio tinto is the next best place to see it. they have been talking strongly in their results. i think we will see that in february of next year when we see the impact of those declines. has claimednd berg the modest mantle in the room in the mining industry. i think people look to him for guidance for what the future holds for >> is he the smartest man in the room? >> i think he has the plan to be that.

>> wise words from paul gate. we will get a new ticker for it, bhp selling off assets. paul gate, thank you so much. gets ready to release its earnings are we look at this we can offer after the break. ♪

>> the countdown is on to create the biggest builder in the u.k. with really and offer -- with the karelian offer. here with more is caroline hyde. >> we are understanding is up slightly. 2.1 billion pounds. that is 18% above where the market currently values it today, but 36%, more than a third above the average price. beforethis spilled out the merger talks came out on the 24th of july.

analysts say that if you factor in the synergies, this is tasty. this is 60% premium for balfour beatty. if you take into account the fact that karelian needs to sell 600 million new shares, you are anticipating that there will be no change in the share price of karelian at this point and therefore, they were over optimistic -- a say they are making up money from nowhere. of still have 18.5 in terms dividend and 175 million pounds in cost savings for karelian by the end of 2016. what they are trying to do is ease investor concerns they will .ase -- lose out >> that is 700 million pounds, approximately. >> they are trying to sell to a canadian company.

you get a 200 million pound windfall going to the shareholders. how do you make the shareholders feel that if this deal goes through carillion, they cannot sell the u.s. unit? they say they will up the value of golfer be slightly so you are -- l for beatty -- balfour beatty slightly. see -- seen some of the biggest players out there saying i like this. beatty does not have a chief executive. they have had a terrible time as of late. their earnings in august show it all. first-quarter profits have slumped 55%. this is why the investor base is becoming exhausted with balfour beatty . they want to see them go back to ion.table with carill

they say there is no logic in selling the u.s. unit and they are worried about them not being able to sell the very viable asset. i think this'll be enough to draw balfour beatty back to the negotiating table. the clock is ticking. friday at 5:00 p.m. >> i love that line -- put up or shut up. it sums it all up. tois up to balfour beatty ask for more time. perhaps they can discuss things for longer. these are two institutions of the u.k. if you look at what they've built, balfour beatty built the tube station during the war. they build notting hill tube station. from taking people to and london and the london an epic -- london olympic canal, the stadium. main part ofe

buckingham palace. >> they really are an iconic presence. >> they will be a 3 billion pound company, aren't they? >> it would be the biggest building company. you bring together the building expertise of balfour beatty and the services of carillion. hopefully they turn around balfour beatty's terrible run. >> we will look at some of the top simple pleasures to help you enjoy your bank call it a. that is net -- bank holiday. ♪

welcome back. 6:53 in london. just over an hour away from the start of the european equity session. should we start with photo man? what have you got for us today? >> i quite like this. stolen a japanese iphone. images upof the 50 for wildlife photographer of the year. >> and he got damaged by water, clearly. >> maybe it took a photo of out, and seted it himself up a link? >> more social savvy than the one in the middle of us. [laughter] >> on the subject of cameras -- >> this is interesting because we are getting a backlash.

when you go to a concert, people stand there the entire time filming the entire event. kate bush is coming back. >> i am going to go see her in hammersmith in a few weeks. >> cannot wait. she is coming back and has asked her fans please, i want this to be a concert when you get involved with the music, where you watch it for real. please do not watch the whole thing through your camera of your phone. she put that on her website, but many others are saying that. you could be there absorbing the whole fantastic event. meanwhile, you are looking through something the size of a cigarette pack making a tiny. beyoncé has asked people to put down the phone and sing-along. they are getting a backlash. designer found a way that you can crowd source

your thing. video.oad a he says they are fighting a losing battle. they want to sell the original concert themselves. the national tourist board is seeking to provide inspiration for us bank holiday-ers. is that a word? they released activities that retain an old world charm. they did a lovely winnie the pooh picture. --se are some of them tucking into fish and chips. have you ever done that? indulging in afternoon tea? picnicking on the shores of windermere? never done that? stargazing at exmoor national park in somerset? the pictures are lovely.

i love winnie the pooh. >> me too. they are all very nice. >> big news in the next hour. we will talk beer and russia. the heineken ceo joins me for the first interview of the day. ♪

>> europe's beer battle. heineken sees moderate growth for the rest of the year. clues to a rate rise. the bank of england releases its latest minutes. >> and waiting for a response. they are yet to wait -- decide on -- >> welcome to "countdown," i am

mark barton. >> and i'm manus cranny. >> let's talk beer. biggest brewer cutting its earnings outlook. and heineken expecting to moderate growth. hans nichols joins us to help filter those numbers. what does beer tell us about the mobile economy? -- global economy? >> it tells us they are drinking less of it in russia. we saw this about a month ago with adidas. we have hard numbers from carlsberg. russia's biggest brewer in terms of overall william. we won't say that about quality.

we wouldn't get into that. they have had to cut down their operating profit. they said they would have high single digits. now in the low single minutes -- digits. their market share is also down in russia. contrast that with heineken, which saw their sales flat. i will give you the number here. $9.27idated revenue was billion. they said it was being helped by growth in asia and africa as well as the middle east. euros -- versus 1.33 last year. heineken sees some strength in western europe. some good numbers in emerging markets. rslbergd -- ca

relies too much on russia and there is in effect. >> what about the world cup? the national team made the semi finals. the manager now manages my team favorite books let's turn this into a hit on manchester united. we can talk about the one thing you are more passionate about then beer. that is football. when heineken released their numbers, they talked about the strength from the world cup. also, the weather. here is one thing i did not understand. they said sales were higher because easter fell later in the year. does that mean people were serving beer with their easter ham? it probably means -- has to do with a longer weekend. you want a late easter if you are a beer company. in the u.k.day here

on monday. we will be here. manus, me, and caroline. >> oh she is off. >> how much is a pint of beer? >> it depends where you buy it. in london, it can be as much as for quaid. -- four quid. of breaking news. >> third time eight so lucky -- is not so lucky. considerablehe risks with the business plan. they say they are winding down construction. the u.k. market is about to take off. that is a keyg problem. the u.k. construction business. secondly, and we know this has been a thorn in their side, parsons brinkerhoff. the u.s. consultancy unit that

they want to sell for the tune of 700 million pounds. offers, they say, please don't. we want to keep hold of this. they are saying, we are just about to have a successful conclusion. stick with us. we unanimously conclude this is not in the best interest of shareholders and we will not be looking to extend that put up or shut up deadline. you are not getting any more time. question, hostile takers in the -- takeovers are not something we see. where does this leave them? does the -- it leave them vulnerable? where does it leave karelian -- carrolion? >> they go to the shareholders?

jules -- wee two want these two jewels in the crown. >> this is what they have promised. they promised special dividends to the shareholder base. being promised 200 million pounds if they sell the u.s. asset. carillion makel up this asset? the sweetened deal is not that much sweeter. we don't feel it is that much up on the previous two offers. >> just a reminder why we care so much about these two bellwethers. they have done incredible things. >> they are centuries old. if we look at what they have

done, you get off the tube. they rebuilt bank station during the war. channelnel, all -- tunnel. carillion had a stake in channel tunnel. theingham callis -- palace, queen. these are companies that have achieved a lot. no chief executive at the moment. a string of half it warnings ever since they did not manage to navigate the financial crisis. billitonday, bhp announced -- it is going to start a share buyback. that already separate dates --

separates it. shares foul. let's get to the earnings. beat estimates. estimating $1.93 billion. as well. what are companies doing? greater demanding returns. that is where we are seeing the buyback. why are they doing this? billion --ver $600 is about time for you to downsize, cut costs. return some of the excess catch -- cash. what it does.y profitability has risen in the first half. shares are off 15% this year. beating bhp. that buyback will separate them

further. >> he came in. what catches my eye, and i'm going to see how it stacks up, in $6old off -- took billion. i was reading investors could have worth $3 billion billion dollars. i love what poll said. -- paul said. he is the smartest man in the room when it comes to run a mining is ms.. and where the industry goes from

here. he was rather -- disparaging. about ise is worried whether people are going to provide value. >> he didn't see the point. let's see what the traders have to say. let's move along. stats ofgot all the the day. for me, the minutes of the bank of england, the question will be next guests.f our where are we? we have heard the quarterly inflation report, talk about underemployment. we have mark carney of the sunday times. we should be prepared to --

slamdunk, bam. dropping yesterday for the consumer price index. down againstrling the dollar. there is a beautiful piece on bloomberg view. i will try and treat it out later. -- tweet it out later. a hedgehog is a singularly, myopically focused on one piece. he sayste on slack -- carney has done a good job, bringing the housing market off the boil. >> i like the fact that in the ir, hei are, -- q mentioned a wide range of views. which has led many to believe there is a wide range of views.

the first time, i have my stat in, in 36 meetings. no dissent. they posted a profit that beat estimate. we will bring you more with the interview with jean-françois van boxmeer. ♪ >> for more on the earnings from

heineken, we are joined by jean-françois van boxmeer. from amsterdam. great to have you with us. earnings, 1.4 pint -- $1.45 billion. you are doing better than carlsberg. can we say this was down to the world cup? or is it more strategic than that? >> it is more strategic. helps and good weather in quarter to helps. the most important is we are winning market share, everywhere

in every country in europe. most of the countries across the world. our innovation rate has been booming at 7% of our revenues. we are doing fine and strong. are ahead on your cost-cutting program. i see the top line. how sustainable is the recovery with italy in triple dip recession and france stagnating? can you stand by the view that the second half will see reasonable growth? >> we continue to take that view, although we caution for slower growth in the second half , particularly in europe. we have had a strong second quarter. the weather is playing against us in quarter three. strongreckon on a rather total year for this year.

we are gaining market share based on the introduction of innovations across the board in europe. that works well. the headwinds are still strong. we are performingsthe strong headwinds. one has to observe that in the first half, and it did not happen, we had a growing market. we reckon that in the second half, it will be tougher. africa, and latin america are growing strong for us. >> let's talk about some of the components. emerging markets is where you have hung your hat versus your peers at carlsberg who are exposed to russia. were a boon for you. talk to me about mexico. it is an important market for you. how strong you see that being in the second half? >> mexico has strong

fundamentals. we have seen reform programs. the economy is solid theory the currents he has been solid. the market is solid. our performance is equally solid. we deploy strong brands and apply our techniques. we are developing nicely. in addition to that, our exports from mexico to the u.s. are growing strongly for us. a brand like dose aggies in the equis ingits -- dos the double digits. thealk to me about competitive landscape within mexico. >> the competitive -- the competition is tough but not tougher in mexico than other countries. brands,te with strong

innovation. the things i previously indicated. that is what makes us progress. the competition in mexico is strong. formidable competitor. europe,al and eastern one of the biggest issues is the contagion from slowdown in the russian economy and from sanctions, going into russia. how do you see it impacting your business? you are the number four player in russia. give me a sense of the challenge of there. >> you indicated in your answer what the importance is for us. we are the number four layer in russia. the position of russia and our total portfolio is less impacted than for other brewers. we have seen the market

declining in russia, essentially, because of tax hikes over the past five years would have been hurting the entire industry badly. the unfolding situation between russia and ukraine, and the unfolding sanctions between the russia have aand limited impact. our business is driven from local sourcing. our agricultural producers are produced in russia and the packaging is produced there. it is an internal business. the impact has been minute so far. we cannot oversee come in and i do not have a crystal ball, to see what the foreign impact will be on the entire -- russia in the region. watch it closely. we think it will have over time some impact. it it will impact many sectors,

not particularly be beer sector. >> we will have to leave it there. the cuts -- well done, the cost cuts. read then london to most powerful woman in europe and noble literates have gathered. -- laureates have gathered. we are there. ♪ >> will come back to "countdown

," i am mark barton. nobel prize-winning economists are gathered for an annual meeting with angela merkel, who will deliver a keynote address. good morning, john. what is on the agenda today? >> let's start with the numbers. 19 nobel prize winners in the field of economics. i am fortunate enough to speak to two of them. one is a man that needs no introduction. i'm excited to interview them to read what we're talking about two big themes. one is unemployment and the session with wage growth or the lack thereof. a concern not just for you and i, the city of london and wall

street, but a concern for main street as well. these are big topics, unemployment and wage data. it inequality as well. the gap between the haves and have-nots. up exactly,summed when you mentioned wage growth and unemployment, what the bank of england is focused on the rate in two hours time, we get the minutes. >> we get the minutes. i'm excited. you loose of 8-1 vote. the elusivevbe -- 8-1 vote. a lot of people were talking about the flip-flop. he read thehe is -- next, he is hawkish. we should draw a distinction andeen me inflation report

when he is speaking to the house or conducting interviews like he did last week. those are his personal views. we should draw a distinction there. when he is reflecting the view of the mpc, he is more dovish. on his own, he is hawkish. the core of the bank of england, the dovish core, is looking resilient to read the division that is emerging is the interesting part. that is what we will be looking for any minutes later today. >> cheers to that. they -- see you later. there with 19 nobel laureates. >> you think that is more intellect and we have on "countdown?" >> slightly more. >> which members have a hint of scent in the air. after the break. ♪ >> welcome back to "countdown,"

i am menace cranny. -- manus cranny. 133.04. -- backdrop to the story is dollar strength. shortn sachs says a positions are arguably moderate.

tonight, we get the federal reserve minutes. they could be a little bit more hawkish than we anticipate. backing up the overall dollar buying story. the dollar continues to be a take that out annual trade on the downside. it is becoming obvious when you look at things like the south korean currency. let's have a look. you are seeing the biggest fall in almost eight weeks. the dollar rising, taking higher. there is the other side of the trade. overseas analysts say they will buy more stocks. the external debt, south korea

the highest level since 2012. >> i am mark barton in london. these are the top headlines. argentina's president is asking congress to pass a bill that will allow the country to skirt a u.s. rule on debt payment. defaulted last- month when a u.s. judge blocked the distribution of funds. that is because some creditors have sued for full repayment. the bill separates those payments for foreign bank holders. in the truce in gaza strip has expired israeli air raids have killed at least three after nine days of relative calm. 50 rockets hit israeli territory and israel struck 25 targets in gaza. airlines on alerts as the biggest bouquet know in gaza shows signs of corruption. volcano iniggest

iceland shows signs of irruption. in the past, it created $1.7 billion in lost revenue. >> the bank of england publishes at 9:30.its -- minutes economists say the committee voted to keep the rates low unanimously. but 45% say there may be at least one dissenter. great to have you with us this morning. i love what you have done with this conversation about the monetary policy committee. you have the hawkometer. i want you to tell us what it is

and is telling us. ometer tells us how hawkish were dovish each member is. we think it is more important than ever to get the indication of sentiment. it is not just about data. it is how members interpret the data. ter hassay the hawkome rebalanced. the names in the frame are the obvious ones. ian mccafferty in terms of voting for a hike. we thought he was slightly. hawkish now we think he is balanced. had a mixnversation of hawkish and the dovish comments.

he thinks they should go sooner rather than later. he thought the weakness in wages was -- it has eroded quicker than expected. we know now that the committee has agreed to lower the estimate by around 0.25%. not everyone, agrees. there was a wide range of views. suggests someone may have a voted for a hike. >> you are going for mccafferty. meter suggests they are the extremes. the meanht be b

candidate. candidate. >> he said that when carney speaks, he is more dovish. when he has a sunday timings -- times interview, he is less dollars. -- dovish. what is the real mark carney? >> i'm not sure anyone knows. he likes to keep the markets on their toes. in the main inflation report, i'm not sure if he was speaking for the committee. and put very dovish explain nations -- expectations back. then we had the minutes. that is where we had the disagreement. the treasury select committee meeting, it all came out then. were you speaking for yourself or the committee? and the speech where he said, after that, that was his view as

well as the committee. >> but then the inflation report inned in next but -- reignened expectations. we are all over the place. >> i know. cpi, we have to wait how they will interpret that. we will not know faced on the minutes -- based on the minutes. the discussion will be about wages. sterling's appreciation is weighing on inflation and will do so for the foreseeable for us -- future. there are reasons to expect they should look for a time that below target inflation. >> we had stephen in here from

the bank of montréal. his baseline scenario is, carney has done a good job. >> he is a reliable boyfriend. >> he is a reliable boyfriend. not a flip-flop. he has done a cracking job. he has brought the housing market up. he has managed to temper the view of where we are. the preparedness of the market for something to happen has increased dramatically. do you agree? has he done a good job? as you sit around the office, what do the people actually say? that is allowable on television? >> we wouldn't be as nice. we think he has done good things but -- has also created some volatility. particularly when he spoke to the treasury select committee,

he said the market was not pricing and enough -- didn't reflect the improvement in the data. he lowered expectations. the data had not improved that much from what the bank -- >> the new protagonists on the voting roster. did you see any of them even considering dissent? >> no, not for a long time. the balance of power has shifted towards carney. our hawokmeter is useful. >> are we right to assume new members mean one does not go

against the central bank governor? is that a correct assumption to make? >> not necessarily. when a adjoin, it's harder for them to stick their neck out, given -- >> but isn't that the point of good, healthy debate? are we looking at, i suppose, not meritocracy -- autocracy. >> it is healthy to have a range of views. at the moment, i think we have had this balance, shifting the balance of power. we might see, as they get more settled, -- >> where do we stand? where is the first hike? what is your view? >> we are sticking to november this year. >> is a germanic shift -- dramatic shift. do nothink you

necessarily need a gradual process of dissent. we could get dissent today. we could see many more surprises between now and then. >> do we believe carney when he says, when rates begin to rise, they will be limited and gradual? that is where there seems to be consensus. >> there does. there's a quite a bit of consensus among city economists as well. we are expecting 25 basis points per quarter. atwill be capped at 2.75% the end of 2016. the rowdy is it it is unlikely to be that. we don't know how it will be. >> when you say it is unlikely to be that -- do you see more bearish or bullish on rates? >> we are just not sure. we think there are a lot of headwinds and we cannot plan that far ahead. neither can the monetary policy committee. >> maybe his should stop tell the market when he changes his mind on --

>> maybe you should stop talking about -- >> that is saying to people who will get a mortgage, it will be gradual and limited. is that good guidance? >> i think it is bad at this juncture to say, it is going to be gradual. there are good reasons. but there are reasons that might change. there are reasons for it to be limited. the reasons that carney has given are valid. >> we are going to leave it there. a u.k. economist at moody credit -- uni credit. >> still to come, third time unlucky. the officer was not sweet enough. we take a look at why after the break. ♪ >> i am manus cranny.

it is time for today's company news. use software will from sap to improve the performance of its players.

it is a matchup between the biggest team and biggest software maker. homer --lmer -- steve steve ballmer has resigned from microsoft's board. he remains the top individual shareholder. formers hired a political advisor for president obama. help moved -- ploufe will cope with the regulatory hurdles and opposition from cabbies around the world. >> the way i like to think about it is, uber is running a political candidate -- campaign and the candidate is uber. i am lucky enough to have partnered with the best campaign manager in the world. >> he is a computer --

contributor to bloomberg tv, but plans to resign by the time he starts with uber. been shunned by balfour beatty. there was more is caroline hyde. what when wrong? the third time. >> the third time is not so lucky to read they are raising their risks. put out a long statement that said, you want to wind it down u.k. construction. just at the time when structuring is ramping up. -- construction is ramping up. they say it is not the time to reduce that. balfour beatty has not managed to harvest the growth potential we see in the united kingdom. down more than 50% in the first half of the

year. it has been trying to reorganize. it really did not write out -- ride out the financial crisis. why they feel they can do better alone is a question for the shareholders. their argument is we should not stay in the u.k. in terms of construction. for the third time, they have been rejected. to sell theperate u.s. infrastructure component for 700 million pounds. with the money, they would bring 200 million pounds to the shareholder base. iny have not had synergies this business for five years. it makes no sense keeping it. carillion, which wants to merge says theour beatty, only way we will merge with you is if you keep the u.s. unit.

>> they want to keep it because they have access to financing. box 300 million pounds worth of financing. has gone down the servicing path more. perhaps they feel together this would be a more valuable asset. it has to be said they were sweetening the deal, but perhaps not as much as many had argued. 2.1 billion pounds is what balfour beatty is being valued at. is bigger and would hold more than 56% of the entire company. >> 58.3 percent. >> this is the overall sweetener. they said, this is great. this is a 60% premium on where balfour beatty was valued before the merger talk became public. because of the synergies. 6%ers have argued it is not

60%.% -- nevertheless, there planning a special debit and. -- they are planning a special dividend. >> let's talk about the iconic buildings. >> i want to know what, how poignant these companies are. rebuilt bank tube station, notting hill station. they were involved in that particular building. , built the main frontage in buckingham palace. also they had skin in the game when he came to the channel tunnel. >> let's leave it there. >> 5% was the close for balfour

beatty. we could see carillion about 3%. they are the most extreme. >> let's see with the openings are. speaking of markets, we are going to take a quick rake. -- break. mark is pointing to the clock. a beautiful, bright city of london. join us in just under two minutes and we will take you through the market opening. ♪ >> welcome back to "countdown,"

i am manus cranny. seven minutes to go until the start of trading. mpc minutes. stocks up just under 2% in two trading days. a little bit of a drop. minutes.got the we -- who is going to dissent. equities coming lower. what caught my eye was the u.s. equity session. 0.3% of anhin

all-time high. any of our guests have been why a bond and -- why our bond and equity markets rising together? our guests said, who is right? the bond or equity markets? is typicallysaid the stock market. we have had glencore. >> $1 billion back to shareholders. the call is for lower? >> the color of -- call is for higher. >> investors are probably glad they got something. maybe the forecast was for more? >> the smartest man in the mining room is -- >> the head of glencore. >> he said, it is not over.

>> is it structural or cyclical? paul gates said it is cyclical. stay with us. me in the next hour. >> oh yes. ♪

>> welcome to "on the move." i am mark barton. we are just moments away from the start of european trading. investors awaiting cues from the central bank, the fed and the bank of england released their latest minutes over the next few hours. first up, here with me now, hans is in berlin. caroline is in the studio. hans, let's kick off with you. >> mark, no love from russia for carlsberg. the brewer is cutting their profit outlook. they previously said it was going to be up by high single digits. heineken did have a better quarter.

they are projecting more growth, more market share. they are quite pleased. it is a tale of two brewers. -- carillion rebuffed again by balfour beatty. the proposed merger is too risky for balfour. deadlinep or shut up looms. i've :00 p.m. on friday. an agreement is unlikely before then. jon. >> thanks, caroline. i will be live from germany. 19 nobel prize winners right here today. i get the privilege to speaking to two of them. we will be talking about unemployment and any quality. in the context of monetary policy, what can the federal reserve do about the situation in the labor market right now?