more market share. they are quite pleased. it is a tale of two brewers. -- carillion rebuffed again by balfour beatty. the proposed merger is too risky for balfour. deadlinep or shut up looms. i've :00 p.m. on friday. an agreement is unlikely before then. jon. >> thanks, caroline. i will be live from germany. 19 nobel prize winners right here today. i get the privilege to speaking to two of them. we will be talking about unemployment and any quality. in the context of monetary policy, what can the federal reserve do about the situation in the labor market right now? is loose monetary policymaking

that worse? stay tuned. >> that is what we are watching today here on the move. european markets have opened lower. stoxxeins for the euro 50, the ftse, the dax and the cac 40. let's check in with manus at the touchscreen. >> we are going to see a little bit of a drop. losingflicking around, about an eighth of a value. where weh more about are in terms of reports. carlsberg cutting their outlook. heineken, things are going well. it is about the bank of england, the federal reserve. go into the u.k. and have a look. diageo coming lower on the first trade. glencore does it again. overall numbers beat real.

glencore came out this morning. , $2.01 billion. the super cycle of commodities is not over. where we are with rio and balaton. iron ore will not peak in terms of supply and 2017. we had a great interview with holgate. his view, ivan glasenberg is the only man who knows what is happening in the mining industry. that is perhaps disingenuous to other ceos. are doing whatey the market wants, giving cashback. glencore also saying they will revisit potentially looking at buybacks. nevertheless, the ftse down. glencore and the miners bucking the overall trend.

-- when you think of the difference in the story, heineken is in the emerging market trade. carlsberg that the house on russia. they are paying for it at the moment. heineken up 6.2%. they have said they are growing market share. russia is an issue but they are absolutely convinced about the rest of the year. on the other hand, you have carlsberg. they are cutting their full-year outlook. eastern europe is increasingly challenging. really, punished this morning in .erms of that geographic trade lack of diversification is killing that stock this morning. ooh, now you see what happens. that is it. that is the moment that technology kills me. >> thanks, manus.

that is the open. joining us now, jerry fowler. he is the global head of equity derivatives strategy at bnp paribas. what is the big theme for you right now? what is driving these equity markets? >> at the moment, we are still stuck in this environment which is part of the reason why both bonds and equities are rallying in many markets. as the output gap closes in the u.s. and we move, you may start to see some different risk factors like exposure to real growth in the u.s. really, it is about identifying where we are in the cycle. >> you say that we are in the mid cycle but there could be a couple years left of this business cycle. when you are in the mid cycle, you don't tend to see contraction. this big debate, when is the s&p going to fall by more than 10%, we could have to wait a little bit further. >> it would be very hard for the

economy to turn down when consumers aren't spending rampantly, business aren't spending rampantly and governments aren't spending rampantly. ae only way to get significant downturn is a policy mistake. i the fed going to tighten too early? we have s months to wait for that. it seems like the possibility of a significant equity downturn is remote. that is not to say you don't get pullbacks. normally they are driven by specific events. we saw that in small ps and biotech. we have seen it to some extent in high-yield credit. those are warning signs. >> the decline in high-yield credit, pimco especially said, those bonds -- that is cherry picking. they provided a good buying opportunity. >> they have provided a lot of positive returns. they were high-yielding to some extent. also, because of the contraction

in yields. there was a lot of performance. when you get a fleshing out in the mid cycle of overcrowded positioning, we are expecting that corner of the market, the high yields, perhaps that is a turning point. you can still generate the carry promoting those bonds. does is produces a broader risk across all asset that is temporary. everything bounces back except the thing where liquidity was flushed out. >> stay there. vestas reported earnings earlier , upgrading its margin forecast. profit rose for the third time. anders runevad. thanks for joining us today. >> good morning. >> you have raised your full-year profit outlook. you say you will achieve a margin outlook, a minimum of 6%

versus a minimum of 5%. what is behind the raising of your outlook today? development.good we increased in the quarter year on year. -- we see our work with improving our core space is paying off. it is a combination of a number of different cycles that led us to increase our outlook for the full year. >> you have been at the job almost a year. you have had a couple of turbulent years as a company. this is your third consecutive net profit. before that, you had nine consecutive net losses. do you see stability now? do you think vestas has turned a corner? definitely is

financially very stable today. as you compare with a year back, we see improvements in all areas. we see improvements in revenue growth, but especially on the earnings side. ago, we had 780 million euros and today we have 440 million euros. financially, much more stable company, a company that is growing and a company with stability. >> let's talk about some of the regions, starting with the united states. what is the prospect there at present? what will happen when this production tax credit, what will happen if it isn't brought back? see a draw inwe

the u.s. 40% of the quarter came from the u.s. .e see good growth cycles will go up until probably somewhere 2015, beginning of 2016. >> do you think we are going to get a decision soon? when do you think we are going to get a decision on whether to bring the ptc back? >> that is a political decision. experts in that field expect a decision at the end of this year or next year. >> anders, what is happening in

europe, your major historical european markets? the u.k., germany, spain, france and italy. are you worried about this backlash against wind and renewable subsidies in europe? >> we actually see a development is verye but it different in different countries. it is a big region for us. we see development from markets like germany, france, u.k. in partsee stagnation of europe. we see fairly limited activity. -- europe hasall been stable for us. as i said, --

germany for example is stable. a stable market when it comes to wind. we are working on lowering the cost of energy for wind. that is one of our main strategic directives. we are getting more and more competitive while the alternatives get more and more expensive. that even ific subsidies are taken down over will try too increase competitiveness. >> anders, what is your exposure to russia or ukraine? are there any spillovers from what is happening in ukraine and the implementation of sanctions

and a ban on food and what could amount to more eventually from russia? are you feeling any of that? >> no. we are not. we don't have product in russia. we have a few projects in ukraine. andre going ahead with them there is a lot of interest in ukraine. but we don't have any projects in russia purely get -- in russia. >> just want to finish with australia. the government is reviewing its renewable energy targets. it has named a skeptic of man-made global warming. you know his name. he is leading this review. how is this going to affect the scottish market for you? how is this going to affect vestas? australia,comes to

they are in a review process. we will see what the decision will be. there is a lot of investment in the market. obviously great support from the general public for renewable energy. we see that all over the world. -- weas the implications don't see much activity. important to have a stable policy, long-term policy, a policy that attracts investment into the market. we hope that the decision will go that way. >> good to chat to you. vestas ceo anders runevad speaking to us from denmark. shares are up today. they raise their profit outlook and earnings beat estimates.

let's bring you up to speed with some of the companies on the move today. 300 million dollars for failing to flag suspicious transactions. the bank had promised to report transactions as part of a settlement in 2012. according to a settlement statement from regulators, the bank didn't spot potentially high-risk transactions because of faulty anti-money laundering controls. glencore has announced a share buyback of up to $1 billion over the next six months. the mining giant also announced profit that these estimates. bloomberg news reporter jesse spoke to glencore's ceo and joins us this hour for more on those results. software to analyze and improve performance of players as part of a three-year deal. the deal is a matchup of germany's biggest tech company

and the champion team. to help players' fitness will be a focus of the three-year deal. still with us for his perspective is gerry fowler. who is right? the bond markets are the equity markets? >> i think it is possible they are both right. it surprised a lot of people that u.s. yields contracted to the level they are at. to some extent, that is because of the global search for yield where you have german bonds trading under 1% recently. when you look at relative value, u.s. treasury stocks, you have differing monetary policies. this is different from a few years ago. we have differing policies in different regions. the ecb may be making a policy mistake. >> when will they remedy that? >> this is the big question.

bnp has had a view that there was policy easing. there is no broad asset purchase program, which is one of the main drivers of potentially weak currency which would help with the inflation side of things. that we probably need to wait until next year for the ecb to be pressured to do something more. >> meanwhile the bank of england minutes today. should, could, maybe .2 a -- point to a dissent or two. >> does the market perceive it as a policy mistake or a response to improving growth? that could be quite telling to how the market responds to u.s. rate hikes next year. >> one of your questions you are posing, where you see uncertainty in the markets, how do the credit cycles turn? >> the credit cycle turning is a

slow phenomenon. it usually occurs before the equity market. we have had such strong bond performance. now we have had that fairly significant burst of volatility in the high-yield market, particularly where we know banks can't provide liquidity. something like $12 billion of outflow in a matter of weeks. much like the small caps in the u.s., i don't think that money rushes back in. when it comes to credit cycle turning, yes, that was a key point in the cycle where parts of the credit market are now saying the covenants are too like. the risk is becoming too much. we may start seeing underperformance from those types of assets. indices may be going through investment grades next year. >> what is the ideal portfolio? it is very important to get the implementation right.

no matter where you look, returns are likely to be low. my portfolio would invest some leverage to equity upside, which already gives you risk management to the downside. you can absorb some downside risks by selling downside on the s&p. risks of a significant downturn are limited in the next year or two. you need to generate some carried to pay for that premium. you are getting a benefit of risk management. you can pay with that with a emerging-market currency bond exposure. and potentially some improving carry trades like being you long dollars and short yen. >> well put. thanks. gerry fowler, global head of equity derivatives at bnp paribas. forext, trouble is brewing carlsberg as russia's biggest beer maker cut its outlook.

more on the profit outlook and profit leak after the break. ♪

>> this is "on the move" here in london. brewers be where. reported earnings today, cutting its full-year profit outlook. difficulties mounting in russia. heineken sees moderate growth in

the latter half of the year. hans nichols has been pouring over the beer. what does this tell us about the global economy? >> it is not as frothy as maybe some economists would want it to be. it is a clear barometer. a third of their profits come from russia. it is a clear barometer that and simmers are spending less in russia. we had that profit warning from adidas, now from carlsberg. stock is down some 5%. heineken, they had a good first half of the year. here is what carlsberg did. they lowered their profit expectations to lower than mid-single digits. before it was looking for an increase of made to high single digits. quite a swing. it is not all just the macroeconomy in russia. carlsberg is losing market share inside of russia. heineken, their sales were

basically flat. but they are increasing market share. here is what the ceo had to say. >> obviously, world cup helps and good weather helps too. the most important is that we are winning market share everywhere, in every single country in europe. rate has been booming at 7% of our revenues. we are doing fine and strong. beer, theough it is expectation was in the 1.3 range. it cleared. let's talk hops and ales and bloggers. >> and manchester united of course. managerer united's new was the manager of the dutch national team, which reached the semifinals of the world cup.

was there a world cup effect or not? >> clearly, there wasn't a manchester united affect. if manchester united fans were carlsberg consumers, you would see sales way up because they would be drinking their losses, drowning in tears after your miserable season. there was a little bit of affect with the warm weather. note, because easter was later in the year, you saw an uptick in sales. we will look for that next year. just in case you didn't know, yes, last season was bad. this season has started badly as well. we lost our first game. there is more ammunition for you when you need it. >> and hopefully more beer for you. >> there is always more beer. angola. from reversed the builders, balfour beatty rejecting carillion's offer to merge yet again.

here with more on the deal is caroline heidi. what is going on? >> risk. risks, risks, risks. the main one that keeps on coming back to the table is the u.s. unit. balfour beatty has a u.s. unit it is trying to sell. it says it is close to doing so for 700 million pounds. that is parsons. it is an infrastructure consultancy other in the u.s.. it is going to use 200 million pounds to give back to shareholders. for five years they have had this assets. it has never given any synergy. karelian who wants to merge with , they want to keep this u.s. asset. they want to keep this prize

u.s. asset. that is what is putting off balfour beatty. balfour beatty also throws in another risk. it says, you are looking at scaling back the u.k. construction arm. we become this juggernaut with 3 billion pounds worth of sales. u.k.o that when the construction market is going great? they say it is the time to be in there. don't exit. that is another risk. balfour beatty is having a terrible run of it. the chief executive step down because of several profit warnings. they struggled to revive themselves after the financial crisis. they had to retrench in australia. they took their eye off the ball in the u.k. just as the construction market got back up and hungry. they have managed to post a profit decrease to the tune of more than 50%. will balfour beatty be better on its own?

we have to question it. will they go hostile? that is the big question now. >> still to come, a nobel laureate joins us for an exclusive conversation. stay with us. "on the move" continues in two. ♪

>> welcome back. i am mark barton. we are 30 minutes into the trading day. let's see how things are shaping up. stocks have opened lower. two days of gains have come to an end. the kleins in the european benchmark, the ftse 100, the cac 40 and the dax. let's dig deeper. who is better at digging? standing at the touch screen with her three stocks to watch -- >> i will raise you a pun. building. balfour beatty, the worst performer on the stoxx 600 as well. off more than 5%. it says the third time isn't so lucky.

i do not want to merge. why? the risks. they want to retrench at a time when construction is buoyant. you still want me to sell my u.s. asset that i don't want to. balfour beatty rejects and fails to extend the takeover panel deadline that comes friday at 5:00 p.m. will karelian go hostile about balfour beatty? it looks like investors aren't expecting that. balfour beatty off by almost 6%. another big follower is luxottica. this is the company that makes in there is some concern the italian press that the chief executive might be asked to step down by the company's founder. this is all speculation in the italian press. clearly having an effect on the share price this morning. we will have to wait and see what we get back in terms of the

company's statement. vopak, the best performer on the stoxx 600. what does it do? storage. almost 12%. it is a record gain for vopak even though we saw that we are still expecting profit to drop. not quite as much as had been expected. ing say this is good news coming from vopak. they are saying profit will exceed 700 million euros. shares trading with the biggest gain on record. >> thanks. these are the bloomberg top headlines. ministers release video showing the beheading of a man they have identified as james foley. two u.s. officials investigating the case told bloomberg they believe foley is indeed shown in the video. the clip concludes with a threat to kill a second american if president obama continues airstrikes against the islamic

state in iran. an egyptian brokered truce in the gaza strip has expired. renewed rocket fire from palestinian militants and israeli air raids have killed at least three. at least 50 rockets hit israeli territory. israel struck at least 25 targets in gaza. airlines are on alert as iceland's biggest volcano shows signs of eruption. air france, lufthansa and delta are concerned about the busy north atlantic route. an eruption in 2010 created an ash cloud that forced carriers to cancel flights. it created $1.7 billion in lost sales. let's get to germany now where a record 19 nobel prize-winning economists have gathered for their annual ball meeting. the german chancellor is also making an appearance. jon ferro is at the scene.

he joins us now. what is the focus today? merkel, 19 nobel prize winners. i am here to zoo but i don't know where i rank. it is really about those 19. i get to speak to one of them. delivering a speech. the other is joseph stiglitz. we are talking about labor market dynamics, unemployment. look at the long-term unemployment in the united states at the moment. you are now looking at a third of them. before the financial crisis, it was below 20% on average. what is the story? is it cyclical, is it structural? do those people lack the skills? is that likely to change anytime soon? in that context, you have to think about this. what is the fed 's role in all this?

to that note, is the federal reserve exacerbating the problem of inequality with low rates and easy money putting up asset prices? we don't all own assets. >> on the matter of the fed minutes from the last meeting, a relief in that meeting. what is the tone going to the of these minutes later? will be at frankfurt airport when those minutes come out but i will be reading them very closely. dissent,because of the but because of what richard fisher is saying. the less concerned about dissent and more concerned about what he is talking about. this is a very hawkish individual. he is saying the committee is coming around to his way of thinking. i want the color on that. >> look forward to them, thanks a lot. let's focus on matters clos

er to home. later, the bank of england will release minutes from its latest monetary policy meeting. we are all going to be watching it closely. man,more closer than this the man i have been sitting next to for how many hours now? >> i got in late. >> five-and-a-half. dissenters, what do we think? >> possibly one, possibly two. unicredit, we had a couple of conversations this morning. we had bank of montreal. bank of montreal think that carney has done a very good job of tampering the market. putting the lid on sterling, etc. working somehe is of the steam out of the economy. >> he was complimenting him,

wasn't he? don't call him a flip flopper. he was backing him. >> we had a conversation with unicredit. basically, it has gone from being slightly hawkish to finely balanced. balanced because we have these various voices coming from the inflation report. followed by talking in your own voice, which is mark carney saying, we may need to crack down on these rates because we may see the possibility of higher rates coming. it is better to be ahead of the curve then left behind. i thought about it more. you know how dangerous that can be. in the past 30 minutes, i thought about it. what is it that mark carney has? >> the chocolate factory? >> the golden ticket.

i think mark carney has been handed the golden ticket in the chocolate bar, which is a cpi. >> 1.6. you know what we haven't mentioned with regard to prices? pipeline inflation. >> that is negative. >> the first annual drop in almost five years. inflation -- does this give them more room to hold off on raising rates? >> there are greater minds than i that can answer that question. you merely proffering to and saying, look, inflation is something that has been a great concern. touching the 2% level. wages are not rising. we are seeing the cpi drop. >> another factor, our man from unicredit, the new members.

governor, the chief economist, and christian forbes. now, not often do i have my own personal take, but my umbrage if you are watching, mr. carney, i get the point. look at unemployment. look at slack. it is hard to discern whether they are rising or not rising. however, to continually use the language that when rate rises come, we are united -- >> unlimited. >> i think if you are going to change, then stop using this language. you can't be sure. , at our disposal, we can be sure it will be gradual and limited. >> good luck.

>> shall i give my favorites? at 6:00ere watching a.m., this is what i started with. months, 13 meetings with no dissent under carney. the last dissent on rates from 2011. martin we'll dissented. will he be one of the two? wheel?rty or >> he is up there on the hawkometer. >> thanks, manus. see you later. we are going to look at the currency markets. can we dig any deeper? we will look at the fed as well. ♪

>> this is "on the move." it is 8:43 in london. let's pick up where we left off. central banks dominating investor focus today. minutes from the bank of england, the fed today. joining us now to look at the impact on the markets is a ubs rate strategist. good morning. issenters is what you are

going for. >> yes. we know there is a wide range of views. i think the minutes will be interesting in that we will get to know some more detail. but, the way mr. carney stressed that now is not the time for a rate hike, i think is telling. i think it would be hard to make that firm statement, had there been one or a couple of dissenters. >> he did say in the quarterly inflation report that there was a wide range of views on the subject of slack on the economy. that word, wide, is a different word. before, it was just a range of views. does that tell us the division might prompt one to come forward? >> i think it is telling us that there is a wide range of views on slack. but slack doesn't necessarily mean the same thing as supporting a rate hike now. >> the focus has changed to wages. >> indeed.

in a little over a year, the bank of england has gone from targeting unemployment to targeting slack to targeting wages, or rather, the prospects of wage growth. before the is it prospect for wage growth is good enough, even if they are not evident in that current data, for the bank to raise rates? in his sunday times interview, he said we could raise rates before wages start rising. you are going for november, aren't you? no dissent today. september, october, november, we go from zero to a rate hike. all, risks have clearly increased. however, i think it is quite possible that looking at increased there is an

minimum wage scheduled for october. that should be impacting particular prospects. i guess we will get more color on how the fomc members think of this. clearly on the horizon, i don't think it is that unlikely that we will see a swift shift in the support for hikes. >> what does it mean for sterling? six weeks of declines against the dollar now. still on a trade wage basis number one over the last year. where does this leave sterling? >> over the near-term, the minimum is clearly weak still. we are not looking for dissenters today. >> if we have got a dissenter, sterling rises? >> probably. i think you will have to wait probably 1, 2 months to see any sustained -- or for one or more members of the committee saying that we are starting to see prospects for wage growth

growing. >> that might be enough. on the bond front, the bond market has been interesting. at 0.34.e year, we are we are lower than we were early july. same as for the two-year, the three-year, the 10 year. a little bit off the lows in the last few weeks or so. bond yields come down right across the curve. >> definitely. >> does that continue? russia-ukraine, gaza-syria, they aren't going away, are they? >> as long as we have that situation out there, they have to call for higher yields. however, if we see both the fed and/or the bank of england start to come out with a more hawkish communication, i think we should start to see higher yields. we are generally bearish on gilts. it is probably more a matter of

when, rather than if. >> would we get a hawkish tone from the fed tonight in the minutes and from yellen on friday when she is speaking at the labor markets? we had one dissenter, charlie plosser in the meeting itself. i think they could be slightly more hawkish than previously. i would probably say that any strength in dollar following that should be faded going into mrs. yellen's friday. it is more likely that yellen will play a dovish tone. for the simple reason that she doesn't need to be hawkish at this stage. the fed will probably still find some way away from its first hike. i don't see any reason why she would want to go out there with a hawkish message to market. >> thank you. englandfrom the bank of

released in just over 40 minutes. "the pulse" is coming up. anna is here from the newsroom. >> good morning park. -- good morning, mark. our program kicks off in just 12 minutes. we will get those minutes. what isader look at coming up on the show, we are talking to joseph stiglitz. jon is hanging out with nobel laureates and other prominent persons. he is going to be talking macroeconomics. loose monetary policy and the fx on wealth distribution. very topical in this era. that seems to be where we are. very topical conversation right now. joseph stiglitz also on the council of economic advisers, developing a plan around the possibility of scotland. that will be a feature of the conversation as well. carlsberg, that stock under pressure today.

down around 4% after the company said it no longer expects to see an increase in full-year profits. russia is very much at the center of things. russia and ukraine. they are losing market share in russia. how are they changing the russian business? what do they have to say about the sanctions environment that europe find itself in? we will talk all of that with the ceo of carlsberg. that is coming up on "the pulse ." >> anna will be hosting "the pulse" in about 10 minutes time. steve ballmer has resigned from microsoft's board. marks the end of a career at the world's largest software maker that lasted more than three decades. remains microsoft's top individual shareholder. apple stock closed at an all-time high in u.s. trading yesterday. shares rose past $100 as investors looked ahead to new

products such as iphones with bigger screens and a wristwatch. analysts are forecasting record sales for the next batch of iphones. carlsberg cut its full-year earnings down, looking at mounting difficulties in eastern europe. russia's biggest brewer said operating profits will rise in the low to mid single digits. consumer spending in russia is being squeezed as inflation accelerates amid a drop in the ruble. toing up, glencore prepares buy back $1 billion worth of shares. more on that after the break. ♪

a shareore announced buyback of $1 billion. let's bring in more. jessie is here. investors reacting to the buyback. >> positively, marginally positive. the stock was up about 1% when i last checked. a stark contrast to what happened yesterday. bhp failed yesterday. the stock got hammered as a result. there was an expectation glencore were going to do this. some expected more. >> as much as three? go with $1 billion was a surprise. are trying to

differentiate themselves is saying this is an ongoing program. were sitting here 24 hours ago talking about bhp. it ended the day down by 5%. other big news, the spinoff. why are investors so focused on getting more returns? >> it is a long-term story. during the commodity super cycle, they were generating enormous amounts of cash. they failed to return it to shareholders. there is a view that they wasted it on acquisitions. they flooded the markets, drove down their own profits. seen a whole new management team, in. investors have driven that. they have instilled in these guys that we want to see this money coming back. you need to put in a few good years of generating strong cash flows. >> you spoke to ivan glasenberg earlier. he is the man at the top of glencore. how many times did he say the

word "discipline"? capital discipline is one of his favorites. >> his message was unwaveringly bullish. he talked about the commodity super cycle. thatiew in the market chinese demand growth is starting to wane, he said chinese demand has never been stronger on a baseline number, which is true. he was really spending it that this super cycle is not dead. expect to see some interesting news out of glencore. >> the brightest man in the room, paul gates, said it. he has got an incredible reputation in the industry. he is worth about $7 billion. his dividend alone is staggering. >> hundreds of millions. >> try not to think about it. a very savvy investor. >> thanks a lot. ok, that is it. stay with us.

anna is next. she will be with "the pulse." what is happening to equity markets after two days of gains? have a good day. ♪

>> the bank of england releases minutes this hour, investors are watching closely. for russia'sng biggest beer maker. we are live with the company ceo. rejected again, shoots down another bid. shares of both companies dropped on the news. welcome.