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tv   Asia Edge  Bloomberg  September 1, 2014 11:00pm-12:01am EDT

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we look at what they take from the last foray into the public markets. >> and i'm david inglis. what are we seeing today? well, it's a decent session. you have weak spots here and there, but the weight today really carried by the session we're seeing in the nikkei 225. it's just a surging session. volumes are quite heavy as well. well, heavier than usual, about a third heavier compared to what we are seeing this time of the day. you have the nikkei 225 and the broader topix index having their best days in two days. dollar-yen spiking up this morning, so the yen is trading at its weakest level since very early this year. now, elsewhere, australia just about flat. we're seeing some pressure there on the index and the a.s.x. because of the weak session we're seeing there for the banks and the mining stocks. now, if you look at korea, you look at taiwan, down relatively by the same percentage-wise. it's really a story there about
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index heavyweight. so you have samsung and hyundai for korea, and you have taiwan really pulling those indices down. keep in mind, these two indices haven't really gone up over the past few months, so a lot of money has gone into the markets, so perhaps a little bit of profit taking. night say it, but perhaps that is what's happening there. for now, i'll leave it there. i'll be back later on with an update on your forex markets. >> let's get more on the safety of data storage. zeb having a look at this apparent apple security breach. and this seemingly is widening at the moment, isn't it? >> and it's cause for concern, not only for the celebrities, 100 who were allegedly hacked in the u.k. and the united states. it's a concern for all of us, anyone who uses the icloud system, that's because it automatically, if you choose, uploads photos from your device to the cloud. it's supposed to be private, but in this case, which the f.b.i. is now investigating -- they said they are addressing the matter. that's what a spokesperson said
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there. >> addressing the matter, yes. we can't confirm that a criminal investigation has started, but the f.b.i., of course, the main body that would investigate criminality in the united states on a federal level, and certainly thunderstorm an invasion of privacy. jennifer lawrence, one of the actresses targeted here. the three-time oscar nominee, or viewers, if they accessed the website, and we are not sharing the name, they would have seen these images, which appeared on sunday. that's when lawrence and others contacted police. it just calls into question the overall security of apple's network. one would think it's the gold standard. >> well, that's the thing. it's all ahead of the product release next week, september or 9, and you'll correct me on that one. and, of course, people may get concerned about this. >> well, hopefully apple is coming out with a security enhancement to talk about very publicly at that event, but analysts see apple releasing a new bigger screen iphone,
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perhaps a wearable device. the key issue, with all of these devices and theance that work with them, that data is transmitted, who can access it, which systems are secure, and when you send things to the cloud, is that specific provider of the cloud you're going to. >> ok. let's stay with the technology at the moment and have a look at what's going on in alibaba. we've got this rise in global equities. it may signal good timing for alibaba's highly anticipated i.p.o., or could it? history can be a gauge here from the last time they listed in 2007. we're going to discuss what i'm talking about as well. they listed last time, top of the markets, and then whoa, sinking feeling. >> especially among chinese internet companies, and then you have alibaba expected to
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come to the market within a few weeks. so people are wondering, is there going to be another repetition of what happened last time when in 2007 they listed at a high point, and then a year later, you have them losing 20 billion in market value and having to delist in 2012, partly due to frauding issues. >> well, how does this then differ? people say it's different this time from 2007. what are the differences? >> indeed, the company has tried to clean up a lot of the regulatory compliance issues. they have been cracking down. >> it's a different beast altogether. >> and the business focus is very different. t's very retail-focused. it's not the b2b unit anymore. and then we have the potential of tying ali pay into the business. there is a possibility for them to buy back a 30% stake. that also helps with valuation if they're interested in that sector for business.
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>> that's the latest on alibaba. of course, there will be lots more coverage of this as we head towards the pricing data and the eventual flow to the company there as well. many suitors, including soft bank, have come and gone, but iliad is refusing to give occupy t mobile. sources say the french company is talking to private equity firms about making a sweetened offer. last time they abandoned their pursuit of t mobile. bank of japan officials say another sales tax rise is in the works. sources saying the prime minister will go ahead with the planned increase next year to keep confidence in the government's finances. but this move may not be clear-cut as the april levy has cut spending and production. there's more than 835 million dollars just weeks before a bailout, the money was earmarked for a venezuela oil project. they offloaded some debt.
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goldman declining to comment on this as well. foreign exchange is very much in the frame at the moment. we've got aussie-dollar in the frame. the ruble at a record low, the euro under pressure. here's david. >> it's been a while since we've seen, i guess, a day as interesting as this one. a very sharp intraday move. what we have for you right now on your screen is a year to date chart of the euro. i want to show you the move which that we've seen. oh, are we going to break 140? now, that happened in about may. look at where we've gone since then, 131.22 is the level right now. now, it seems to me bouncing above this level of about 1.3120, which is the september 2013 low. let me just highlight that for you.
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we had the data out of europe, but i guess with the exception of greece and france, we didn't see improvement anywhere else. italy slipping into the contraction as far as the p.m.i. data was concerned. this boding well for the e.c.b. this is more firepower or perhaps for more dovish comments come from mario draghi. of course, that rate decision comes out thursday evening after the bank of england. dollar-yen, 104.76, that's really pushing up equities over in japan. in fact, i was taking a look at some of these technical levels here. it's the thrd day of weakness. will this continue? i guess if up to the compare it to what we've seen so far this year, the lowest level since january 8. of course, the lowest level here, that's about 105.30, which is january 1. we're still a bit from that. now, what do we see? bank of korea later on, we have minutes coming out at 3:00 p.m., plus inflation this morning.
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a little bit more subdued. so a few ticks below the orecast of 1.6%. aussie dollar, that's the currency we're watching closely. there we go, 9310 is your level there. now, i hate to get technical, but if you look at this retracement level, let's just take that, and that seems to be the resistance level at this point, 9339. if you just imagine a line being drawn, there you go. that seems to be near term resistance level here for the aussie currency. i'll leave it there. back to you. >> ahead on the program, russia broadening energy ties with china as the west threatens more sanctions. we a look at both decisions. the next move of finding out why korean cosmetic companies are putting on a brave face.
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>> india is the only asian market at an all-time high, and our next guest says expectations are running ahead of reality. this is the senior portfolio investor at mcquary. let's kick things off with the reason why. >> we've done a lot of work in india, and we didn't expect the market to rally ahead of the prime minister. we see still equity valuations as not cheap, so you're at bout 16 times the model. inflation is still quite high. we say it's 8%, 7%. they came out in the second quarter, beating expectations, but still, i think what weave seen is economists upgrade the years. arguably the equity markets have rallied ahead of
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expectations. small cabs in india are up over 50%. >> it's quite extraordinary. my indian colleague is going to be talking about india in the next block, but i want to get to what you like in this part of the world. now come on. >> i think the korean cosmetic companies are some of the best listed in korea. we have a very large position in. we started buying it at the he happened of last year. it's one of our most favorite companies. their products sell incredibly well, particularly in the duty-free shopping, where we have a large position. >> you like hotels. >> correct. it overlooked the duty free shopping, and it was 9:58 in the morning, and i counted 18 buses of tour groups about to go shopping at the duty free
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shopping. you see same-store sales for g.d.p. is up around 22% year to date. if you look at the specific products, a really hot product at the moment, selling really well. o cosmetics, crimes, makeup. up her one, it's really the string. one does more for the cosmetics, but both are selling -- >> talk about eye shadow. >> they're great companies. i look at these companies, and did you to their offices, and it's lab coats. they have big brands like l'oreal, etc., but also korean bands. this is incredibly strong. kolmar beat expectations about 25% on the o.p. line. we're really -- they're still
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fairly small. we're very long term buy and hold. cosmetics, mainland ladies from china, buying cosmetics for the first time, recuring revenue, once they start using it, they use it for the rest of their lives. my mom's been products all her life. >> same ones? >> same one. once you find something you like, you've got that recuring bottle, and we like that very much. >> let's just move away from korean equities and look at the stocks here, the final check, nd it worked out fine. >> i think what we've seen is a little bit of the arbitrage. hat's closed somewhat. it was more in the bank account, and they can also buy the mid cap stocks. some of those have already started to move upwards. i think some of those which are
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trading on fundamental valuations, which are attractive have started to move up. when we look at northbound, i think it's quite interesting. valuations are a little bit more expensive, but for us, we think that it will be quite exciting, will open up. we believe these quotas will be removed. we think it's a short while. over time, i think if we look at it -- >> it's premium. >> more so from change the constitution or our fund, we have to send out letters and it takes time. don't expect i think a huge rush straight away, but definitely for southbound it's going to look really, really good. >> what are the stocks you're looking at here? >> yeah, that's a local broker, so essentially that's one way they're getting around the train. they're buying u.s. stocks. they have a market lending business which is going very, very strongly.
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they also have an equity market market, and the parents should be listed in due course. we saw the first half profit up -- >> 87% in one year, though. >> it's 185%. >> securities quickly? >> it's more of an asia company, so that's one way to pay. we bought it at 10 times price earnings. we think it's incredibly cheap. for us it's buy and hold long-term story. >> not done anywhere near as well. that's not bad. yeah. anyway, thank you very much indeed. sam, you'll join us for our group discussion later on. coming up, a moody's performance. going head over to mumbai and have a look at i happened i can't's prime minister has done in his first 100 days in office. ♪
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>> let's take a look at some of the stories making headlines. ukraine and russian and separatists have held talks in belarus. the crisis is escalating out of control there. the west accusing russia of stoking the fighting, something they deny. however, president putin has even hinted at some form of statehood for the rest of the
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eastern part of the country. tensions rein high in islamabad after clashes between police and demonstrators in the so-called government suburb called the red zone. earlier, anti-government protesters stormed state television, temporarily forcing the channel off air. they are calling on the prime minister to resign, accused of rigging last year's election. china defended its decision to limit democracy in hong kong. bay jange will vet candidates in 2017. it's called on opposition lawmakers to support the plan or risk losing the chance to elect the city's next chief executive by popular vote. he used pepper spray to break through barricades as china's representatives addressed business leaders. japan is reporting more patience with dengee fever. it comes after a week after finding the first cases of the mosquito disease since the 1940's. the state broadcaster saying 19 people have now been confirmed ith the fever.
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shares in a pestside maker have been rallying, currently trading at four-year highs. gold is pouring back into india. imports are surging 65%. a cap had been in place on exports, but it's been relaxed to rebalance trade. looks like it's working. the latest physicians show the current account deficit fell 64% on the year. investment worth billions of dollars may be at risk in india. the government has proposed canceling more than 170 coal mining licenses, this after a court said the permit allocation process was illegal. however, there may somebody relief. the government has recommended saving about 40 miners that are in or close to starting production. well, all of this against the 100 days, which is accepted as being a honeymoon for business leaders and politicians, and today's return of the prime minister of india, this is a erformance so far.
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let's take a look at the report card. does it say must try harder, good effort, etc., etc.? >> this couldn't have been more perfect, more complete 100 days in office at the time when the financial markets are trading at all-time highs, backed by foreign capital. g.d.p. headline numbers bounced back to a two-year high. the timing is perfect. if you look at how the government has performed the last 100 days, it's been extremely high on intent, moderated successful on some of the actions that it has promised, and that they delivered on, but it's been disappointing for those expecting radical reforms. why were they expecting it? this was india's strongest government in the last 20 years, and therefore, expectations were sky high. instead of pushing through the radical reforms, what they've done in the past 100 days is to
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focus on the basic issues of governance. for instance, he's removed layers of decision making, focused on execution, insured that reforms take place and government becomes a lot more operationally efficient. for example, he's disbanded the planning commission of india, a 50-year-old institution, sending out a clear message that india 2014 cannot be run by systems and structures of the 1950's. so it's a job that's well begun. it's half done. but more importantly, you know, this is not a quick-fire century you will find. this is more like a steady knock, and therefore, you're seeing steady, small progress, but incremental progress indeed. >> how many boundaries has he had, and has he had any just missing the bull by a mile type sort of shot? >> well, there's been nothing so far.
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but some of the policy decisions have really what? for instance, on the issue of foreign capital, he's open to the different sector. so far it's taboo in this country. he's opened it up to foreign investments. but on the other hand, on sectors with insurance, he's been unable to push through. on foreign policy, he invited leaders for a swearing-in, sending out a message that foreign policy is going to be important to his overall scheme of things. he made quick trips immediately after that, in the neighborhood of nepal. he's right now forging fairly significant relationship with abe. later this year he's going to meet president obama and the leadership in china. on the foreign policy front, he's at 700 victories. but talks in pakistan have completely collapsed, notwithstanding the crisis going on right now, the beginning that happened between the russian has really not sort of moved forward.
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there was the tax that was supposed to change and improve g.d.p. so it's a mixed bag, hoping for more hits than misses. >> thanks for that. joining us there from mumbai on 100 days in office for the prime minister. right, we're going to have a look at what the prospects are for the trading day in india now, just quickly checking in on the futures contract. last time i checked we were slightly lower and could have been erased some of the gains we did see yesterday. they were up by .9% there on monday. and we're down by .25% when it comes to the futures session there, trading in singapore. sydney looking like this at the moment. a.s.x. hundred moves marginally to the upside. reserve bank decision on interest rates expecting no
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change, 27 economists also suggesting the cash rate will be kept on hold. south korean market a bit in the doll troubles today. let's kick it out to what's going on here in hong kong. last time i checked, we were marginally down here as well. hong kong seeing a fallback here about 1/3 of 1%, 2/3 of 1%. this is the spectrum of more protests on the street of the city with the occupy movement protesting against the lack of democracy or democracy with chinese characteristics being proposed by beijing. also, it is the open rio. in tokyo, we have that on the other side of the break. ♪
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>> what is the problem with samsung? of more sanctions against russian and the ruble has never had less value. australia central-bank decides on interest rates. let's get to the latest on the markets. taking more positive and less bad news coming out of that account in australia.
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it is all playing out when it comes to the trading day. >> a lot of things to consider right now. australia, what is happening there? we are flat for the index. it is about the mining stocks. prices in focus today. we saw a slight rebound on monday. 87 u.s. dollars per metric. you do have some of these mining stocks under pressure. some individual movers we are following. , this one reversing earlier losses. , 1.2 million2% yuan. apple coming out with an iphone
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6 reportedly, perhaps early next week or later this week. sales falling. vehicles. 360,000 at the start, listed in taiwan. led chipmaker. , thirdpany's chairman quarter a single digit decline. 5.2%.to japan, the goldman sachs price target raised. 4 and are a fan of the ps a fan of dragon quest, goodness. sony will be offering this game on the playstation 4.
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that touisse raising outperform. looking at hong kong here as well. the casino stocks, what are they telling us? >> it has been mixed. yesterday, we saw a sharp decline for a lot of these gaming stocks. nine straight days of declines. we are going for a perfect 10 straight days. it is about the gaming revenue. , cannot blame the world cup on this one. the price target was cut by goldman sachs. target.a 12 month price
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petrochina, big declines for a lot of these chinese energy firms. a big theme. they are already quite big companies and they have continued to add onto assets. 2004, 106 billion u.s. dollars. we are north of $450 billion, fixed assets just for these three companies in china. >> the currency markets, the ruble at a new low. we got the possibility of new sanctions against russia. moscow is building up further energy ties with china. we have already had one big deal done. >> three.
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he arrived on friday for what was the 11th meeting between the china-russia energy committee. the natural gas pipeline. he went to siberia. wheread this deal vladimir putin offered china to take part in this massive project. it is russia's second-biggest oil project in operation. quarter, 440,000 barrels a day, 4% of what china requires. as one ofred to china the biggest production operations today, very promising. a cautious approach to letting our foreign partners, calling on
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no restrictions for our chinese friends. >> all because there could be sanctions. russia falling to china's embrace, you could put it that way. >> the ruble is falling. angela merkel getting frustrated. about been talking statehood. >> they have been talking about statehood, more autonomy there, etc., etc. if they were to restrict sovereign bonds, businesses, financial implications. imports and exports. sovereign bonds could change financially. >> john dawson.
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for theeen a huge week australian economy. we have gdp figures unemployment numbers and a rate decision later today. let's get the latest indicators. it is the balance of payments. not quite as bad as some thought. >> it was not as bad, but it is never great. thought. going back to the 1970's before you see the current account balance and surplus. this time around, there team $.7 billion deficit. -- 13.7 billion dollar deficit. analysts had been expecting a $14 billion deficit. exports were down to $81 billion. the iron ore volumes have been reasonably steady. as has the australian dollar.
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the impact of this is expected to be .9% drag on australian gdp and that number will be released tomorrow. better news, nothing will change their minds when it comes to that rate decision. , but is pretty unlikely this number was a more cheerful one. the expectation had been 1.9%. it turns run the decline that we had back in june. the year on year figure also pretty healthy. that will please the bank's. the australian bank. we are waiting on the rba. we will get statements for the month, the cash rate is expected
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to stay on hold, 2.5%. it will be the least painful statement since the last rba statement. >> thank you very much for that. australia will leave interest rates on hold today. to further cuts actually lie ahead? blame the strong australian dollar. the predicament that australia finds itself in. something we will be watching. the aussie is partly to blame for unemployment been at a 12 year high of almost 6.5%. it is a persistent challenge. surprise that some are calling for a cut in rates, but not at the meeting.
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of the g 10 countries, the aussie is the drunkest -- strongest currency by far this year. it is up against the british pound and check out the move against the japanese yen. the kiwi factoring in. relief may soon find thanks to growing expectations that the fed will raise rates and to the plunging price of iron ore. it has slumped 34% due to weaker chinese demand. deepening divergence between a strong aussie and the sliding price of the country's exports. resources and the aussie going in the opposite direction. the overnight swap contract. they're pricing in a greater chance that the fed will raise rates next year. that is the red line. commodity price index going down. both forces may help weaken the
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aussie and that could alleviate the pressure on what to do with rates -- at least in the short term. subjects andange look at some of the corporate stories. >> it is never too late for a change of career. especially if the boss makes it happen. the plan is to encourage equity research analyst to become investment bankers. they focus on investment making fees. ash investment banking fees. italy had is refusing -- iliad is refusing to give up on t-mobile. last month, softbank controlled sprint abandoned its bid for t-mobile. the cloud let's use or store personal information on several systems.
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the alleged security breach comes as apple prepares to launch the new iphone on september 9. those in the top corporate headlines this hour. >> the risks that lurk beyond your keyboard. security related high-profile case. ♪
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>> welcome back to "asia edge." off with looking -- very positive story. huge gains. his candidacy was announced. >> isn't everything priced in? india becoming a modern state is
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now priced in. >> more or less. >> we tend to agree. there has been a lot of positive sentiment. 35%. up small caps up over 50%. those in a couple of names. , these those lower names --es of drug manufacturers down.y were shut faced with in india the same difficulties. now?do you do from we are not going to be chasing momentum. we have two of our managers in india as we speak at the moment
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meeting with companies. we will wait and see if they come back with any value. >> what are the top three questions? >> we ask as many difficult questions as we can. >> i am the guy who runs a company. >> the way we approach the meeting, we will read the last two years of annual reports. we go through the cash flows, the balance sheets. we will try to focus on three or four key earnings drivers. three or four key risks. it will give me an indication of the top line. understand what the margin is. we always focus very much on the cash flow as well. working capital, inventory holdings.
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this is what you have to look at when you look at alibaba, which is what you have been covering all day. we have a pricing on the 18th. >> look at the pricing these days and the u.s. stock rally, the price is extremely high. do you have any internet stocks? especially chinese ones. averaging -- this year, we should have the benchmarks for the seventh year in a row. we have -- we have looked at many of the internet stocks. companies, butty for us, we get shy woman to the multiples at these levels. if we bring it back to alibaba, it is a fairly complicated offering.
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>> how big is it? >> it is 900 pages plus. i gave up at page 150. we have an analyst who has read it cover to cover twice. it is certainly no romantic novel. a lot of moving parts, it is a very good company for that matter. weekend not to risk -- we tend not to risk our investors. go -- howcompanies many companies go and pick the tires? the warren buffett model? buffett always invested in bricks and mortar. when he was dealing with pepsi-cola, railroads. they fall in the same investment model. simple tangible businesses.
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>> how many go and do site visits these days? >> it is hard to say. we exhaust ourselves to go on many site trips as we can to verify the information. we have generated more than 1000 basis points on access returns. our team is very disciplined. we are very detailed. if we cannot forecast the earnings accurately or we think the corporate governance is too high, we simply don't invest. >> like buffett. moment like that? >> we do. over the last 6.5 years, i've been in some province in china. there are those circumstances,
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very detailed. everything we have is public domain information and reports are starting point. we approach it from a risk point of view. a lot of stories that happened over the years like that when we say, this is too risky for us to invest. >> internet stocks. so much complexity. >> we like very simple businesses that we can understand very easily. i think we can say, if we can determine what the intrinsic value is, what is the business pay --orth, we like to take very large positions in
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those businesses. if there are too many moving parts, we can't not to invest -- we tend not to invest. asia is full of risk. the way we have navigated through the landmines, very conservative. the price is what you pay and the value is what you get. we do not have the risk appetite to be chasing them. people -- you have so many hack attacks now. >> not so much of the hacker issue, but the step up monitoring issues from the government. you have really seen a streamlined of bureaucracies and cyber security groups. for normal people, a blurred line touching personal data and it oversteps issues like government -- things that government don't like.
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whereare incidents accounts have been shut down completely. is there something that the government -- >> it is interesting to look at companies where you can make money off of it because of a repressive government, perhaps. recently, have you seen this? completely secure phones made by a swiss company. >> made by us was company, that is a shot. -- that is a shock. >> i would buy one. >> thank you for that. next, aiming high. the self inflating airship that soon could become a secret weapon in stealth operations. ♪
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>> airships have been around for a century. a company is hoping to take them to new heights using a reusable blimp in a box. it could be a low-cost addition to stealth surveillance. ♪
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♪ ♪ >> a new drone coming your way maybe sometime in the near future -- in the near future.
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the sun has been putting on a light show. these are computer generated images. we have nasa generating these images. they show what scientist call mid-level flares from the surface of the sun. it can cause all sorts of problems on earth. navigation systems being put out of kilter. we do have these flares that occur when kinetic energy builds up in the solar atmosphere. that representation, suddenly released. the activity rises and falls over an 11 year period. cycle 24.a solar whatever that means.
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go to bloomberg.com for our top stories. you can also follow me on twitter. there we go. that is it from us here in asia. we'll be
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