later today. let's go to hans. >> manus, i have gone technical. i will be talking about all the gears and god gets -- gadgets here in berlin. changes.rgy how efficient will products be in your home, will they communicate and how expensive will that bill ultimately be? auntie to focus in on this morning. -- plenty to focus in on this morning. let's check in with caroline. >> caution ahead of a central bank fury. really kicking things off at halftime. later today we have the bank of ecp decision as

well. many saying of course, will there be more hints of central bank stimulus from the european central bank. many think a new change across the board. lower sideing on the of things, if you're looking at spanish equities, france up by 4.5%. that werth remembering are basically at record highs one we are at stocks worldwide. we currently have world equities 47.5 trillion dollars. tradingthe s&p, 500 very near those highs. up, pretty significantly this morning. we will dig into that deeper. story, bank of america merrill lynch research

saying 45%, almost half of all government bonds, currently yield less than 1%. that is what the likes of mario draghi, the likes of carney in the united kingdom, have been doing. all of this stimulus has led to low yields. we still have germany and negative, minus 0.03%. united kingdom today, ahead of the central-bank decision. currently seeing money fillsinto germany, just up that 1% level. saying, at at pimco the moment the risk reward doesn't stack up. haveevel of interest rates historically unacceptable risks at the level of return.

well also be getting quantitive easing from the central-bank. europe is starting to buy bonds, that is what has kept german get so low recently, seeing bond prices rides -- rise and yields fall. rising, the u.s. data has been so solid lately. manufacturing and a 10 year high. factory output coming in very high -- strong. the private unemployment data thane has seen more 240,000 jobs added. that will set the tone. will they give any hints to where we go in terms of the court -- course of action. some are thinking it is time to

rein in that tied. unit,els in its canadian the fifth biggest insurance in canada. beatty up 2.24%. bill finger likely to fall as much as 7% this morning. the third profit warning from this german builder. you, these markets thursday morning. waiting for the policy decisions from the european central bank. to put this in perspective, manus cranny and ramen. us start with you, what are we expecting. what will we hear from the ecb today. -- today? >> i think it is debatable.

they might lay cards on the table about securities. ist might show that he drafting marriott draghi -- mario draghi. i'm not as concerned there but with what they might do with the target of euros. i'm worried they may make them cheaper. weore the start of the show, were talking, you seem to think they may make it a better incentive for banks to take up at this targeted lending. i just don't get that, it is virtually cheap money area and i suppose it's the action. >> i don't support that it is targeted. the easing of credit is a key thing. if that credit is cheap, that it will be fuel for growth in europe. market, >> ifbs they cut rates we shouldn't

dismiss it as a token gesture. why bother tinkering with them? we shouldn't did this it -- dismiss it that way because it is part of the cheapening lending, banks lending to businesses the mother is a point to it. >> the standard in europe is going to be the engine of europe -- growth. are key people who desperate for yield, and a very large market in europe which has died. it is a perfect way to kickstart that lending. of approval from the ecb and i think that market will be very politic for growth in europe or in. >> that see other thing, we learn just how popular these target lending operations have been. that mario draghi playdom blinder during this crisis because he basically had

-- he had made rates move in the euro zone without spending a penny. when you look at the amount of money that the bank of england and they have thrown, he said that mario draghi had played a good set of cards. aboutis are ready talking the euro and the fact that it is strong. we'll obviously, it has been awful coming out of europe for the last month. but it has weakened so much. that was the one headwind, the strength of the euro, now we have seen it fall substantially. >> you keep that momentum. waslongest running losses 99. but to keep that you have to deliver. he's never actually done anything. >> you wonder what impact the geopolitical movements will have on europe. ramin, thank you. ramin nakisa stay with us.

aftero leaders meet today putin and poroshenko took the first steps toward peace. are they in or out? chief economist weighs in on the referendum.

>> i'm anna edwards in london, this is "on the move." here is the stuff that is on the move this morning.

clearly likes this one, the stock is up by 8.9%. canada's largest life insurer has agreed to buy standard life. the fifth largest business and the insurer and market in canada. billion -- canadian dollars for the company. investigators seem to like it very much. say that the they times earnings. anremoves a drag on growth, attractive evaluation. we are getting commentary coming through. morgan stanley saying that the sale of canadian operations will de-risk their earnings streams. isll what us for more views ramin nakisa.

the global allocation strategist. let's talk about your investment strategy, broadly speaking if we look at credit versus equity, where are you on this? as we see these low yields and bond markets and we look at very recent highs. >> the way we compare it is to look at the earnings yield on stocks. in the usa, it's about 5.7%. the question there is how far down the credit spectrum do you have to go? we have to go all the way out to , a very low credit rating to get that kind of yield. moment, thehe favorite is very much toward equity because it is much create -- cheaper than credit. equity presents a more attractive value proposition now. >> you must be confident that

this recent strong equity market will continue to make that call. what are you expecting for the end of the year? most about aee at 10% upside. it is not incredibly good, but better than equity. i think you will not see much compression and the coupons are fairly small. spreads andsay the appropriate are too tight, you think they are being miss priced. there is not enough or risk being priced in, is that right >> exactly. you can look at something like spain and turned that into a rating, it is a ford notch upgrade and that is unrealistic. either the agency is wrong or the credit spread is wrong. my money is on the credits read being wrong. destabilizing deficits and europe, only germany and luxembourg are on a stabilizing debt path. the rest of the countries, particularly france, that is one

of the countries to watch because it could see i roll into a debt trap from where we are now. competent above the -- confident statements they have given us about doing whatever it takes, the bond market seems to trade increasingly like the german market though spreads have been coming down. what makes you think that we have to revert back to a high premium for proliferative that -- debt. at the moment in europe, it is about six basis points. globally it is about 12 basis points. the risk for premium credit is tiny. i think it is missed price. >> we did see yesterday as we were led around on the market by seemingly conflicting statements from poroshenko, from putin,

things still remain unclear though it seems there is a path to peace being presented -- how does that play into a long equity strategy? are you basing that impart on a peace deal or has it away from the geopolitical arena? isthe key thing to remember markets have a short attention span. the longer this crisis goes on, and it will go on for years, i think the markets will start to ignore what is happening in the ukraine and less there is a big blowup of fighting. at the moment markets have pretty much shrugged off ukraine, expect for particular companies who are exposed to russia directly. >> talk to me about your general investment strategy am a if we are looking at equities which are the sectors that you are a big fan of? >> we are to concentrate on , which islike germany

unloved. the companies have not been in favor of markets. >> partly because of the geopolitical risk? >> that's right. the evaluations are crazy, not cheap. particular,anks in angst which will benefit from the hq are and this proposal of ecb directly, those are the key ones to watch. how to the german banks benefit from the aqr? >> the worry at the moment is that there is a bombshell on the balance sheets. once we have everything in the open, we will be in a situation where they can lend more easily to corporate. >> so we get behind the scenes and see if there is dirty laundry. exactly, once we see clean balance sheets we will know they're in a position -- >> you like the technology sector. >> hardware is something we like.

the valuations don't look ridiculously high. those are the ones we favor. >> thank you for joining us today. ramin nakisa joining us from ubs. samsung stole the show at the tech fair in berlin with the unveiling of two smartphones including one with a wraparound screen. nichols discovered, smartphones are the tip of the iceberg. anna, we will be taking you inside homes. samsung was the story, new smartphones, phablet's, you can make calls on the road, but inside the home the question on this connectivity, is how do you develop a common language so these devices can communicate? >> the problem that we do have

is there is no industry standard. the appliances of different competitors cannot communicate. >> the other problem for these ,evices is how secure they are how are they able to guarantee that your home devices which know so much about you, won't be hacked. >> it is a topic. know, all of our telephones, our ipads, our are able to be hacked. air is always somebody who wants to look into it. there will always somebody who will help you prevent that. anna, you put me on the spot by asking me what my favorite household chore, my question to you, what inside your kitchen is

the most sensitive detail that you would not want a hacker to know about? >> i'm certainly not going to declare it on live television. nice try. i'm interested in this layersation, whether me needs to speak samsung or vice versa. how is the crisis in ukraine affecting the mood at the conference? >> it is clearly weighing on the .ompany's minds when you look at these items behind me, these are not cheap items, even a washing machine or a vacuum cleaner, these items cost a lot. spoke with the ceo and africa, here was his take. >> in europe we start to see some signs. in some industries like to showve, they start

signs that they will attack industries. we talk about connectivity with home devices, the advancement i want to see, the deliveryman arrives when you want. you don't have a four-hour gap in the middle of the day when you have to be home for a new refrigerator. hans keeping us abreast of all developments technical and domestic details that you need to know. putin and poroshenko take the first step towards peace.

>> welcome back to "on the move ," i am anna edwards in london. russian and ukrainian presidents announced an outline for peace. let's go live to the summit. ryan, a busy couple of days. they certainly do have a lot on their plate, it will be meeting president petrov poroshenko later today, the alliance looking how they can help that non-nato country. some conversations on the

sidelines about how they can provide military assistance. not sure if the alliance as a whole will do much, but we might get one or two countries saying they are prepared to provide weapons. also, expect to hear more from nato about this rapid the planet force that they want to use, this so-called spearhead that the secretary-general was talking about that would not be based in the baltics but that could get there quickly if there were russian aggression in those nato countries. finally, they have to talk about the islamic state. it is become a big issue in syria and iraq with the beheading the other day. of what theysense will be discussing when it comes to ukraine. how clear is the understanding about the situation on the ground? what has or has not been agreed? >> i think a lot of the world

leaders, there are 60 of them here, are as confused as we are as to what was agreed on. they will want some kind of clarification. the russian president was in mongolia talking about a peace plan that will be discussed tomorrow in belarus. everybody will want to hear more on that. is there really a cease-fire coming. we can expect some discussion amongst the eu leaders, merkel is here, they say their sanctions are still on the table. i have a self-imposed deadline of tomorrow to impose those sections if russia doesn't do anything to dsl eight. that is something to watch. president aawn -- lawn can expect some help today. russia has the right to sell those warships despite the

outlook not being great. dealcided he will put that on hold and we see the ukrainian prime minister thanking him. that is another thing we will see transpired today. >> under normal circumstances, the heaviest goods you would find on a golf course would be golf buggies, i see there are different creations behind you. it has been quite an operation in south wales. >> you like that do you? that is an f 35 fighter jet. there is a rumor going around expecting to invite vladimir putin to a round of golf, and if he is on par, they will fire one of those missiles at him. some 60 state leaders coming here, six warships art off the served15,000 meals to be

. it gives you a sense of how big of a deal it is. every two year event, and it has been 25 years since this country held it. , don't eat all of them.

>> welcome back to "on the move ," i am anna edwards. >> let's see how things are shaping up across the market. side, they're building a construction sector that may be coming under pressure and germany. caroline hyde is here with details. >> checkout out standard life, currently at a record high in terms of its share price. almost 10%, why? it is selling off its canadian unit. life for ato man u 2 billion canadian dollars.

most of that is going back, no wonder they are so please. 1.2 5 billion pounds is going back to the shareholder. closes its grip as canada's largest insurer. meanwhile telfer beattie is getting a boost this morning. beatty is getting a boost this morning. it put an end to all those negotiations with the building group that was trying to move them over, but they stuck to their guns and sold the units. billion and some of that going to the shareholders this morning. 1.6%.elief there of look what happens if you have not one, not two, but three rocket warnings. down this morning.

i try to reorient itself and become a services company taking too long. currently we see it downgrading once again, shares down 10% this morning back to you. that, i look at the equity markets. investors are waiting for policy decisions from the bank of england and the ecb today. to keepect both banks record low interest rates on hold. some economists forecast that president mario draghi may commit to brine asset backed securities. asset-backeduying securities. sappedn, they're being by a higher sales tax. he said that overall pullback in spending after the tax hike is easing. is scrambling to limit

the potential losses from the cancellation of a $1.6 billion contract to deliver a warship to russia. , has beensident criticized in the past for fulfilling the military contract at a time when sanctions are being placed on russia. the russian president will continue his shadow walk until right context the in the ukraine. the president and the president poroshenko have agreed to some and of the five months of fighting. nato still have plenty to deal with at today's summit in south wales. more on their agenda. alexander, a board director at united council of the united states.

agenda, itcs on the is a full agenda that they have to deal with. it comes from an organization that some years ago, anywhere questioning its role in the modern day, and now it has a long to do list. we are going to see a reengineered nato after the summit. important things are going to be decided. particular stage, most probably are going to be make or break decisions. .nd will be put on the table as you can see because of the type of challenges we are facing, virtually around the world, it would take the whole time to describe them, it would require a different set of tools to implement them. a different set of ways to react to the new challenges. and probably most important in the political world, what are the dreams and the plans.

and funding should be on the agenda. let's talk about the funding, because there has been a conversation about how much european countries are putting in and should it in. european countries digging deeper, putting more money into nato? >> as you know these type of measures are not implemented overnight. fivegoing to take a while, to 10 years. behink the target will different because we are facing a new type of war, and new types of challenges. is actually isis advancing in a way that is challenging not just our set way of thinking, but our set of values, the way that we see the world. war, the paradigm has been challenged. the ukraine, the doctrine has

been reintroduced that we haven't seen since the cold war, isis -- the paes is not they -- the point is not that they don't recognize the borders. we are facing profoundly different types of challenges and they will be here to stay. >> help us understand what is happening in the ukraine. we heard seemingly conflicting things from putin, from poroshenko, what is happening on the ground? how close to a peace plan are we? putin has presented seven steps but will the ukraine agree? >> the only thing that is certain is that everyone is secure -- confused. tweak by poroshenko move the market. how many times do you see that? because theess just ukraine and russia is no longer

a strategic partner. it will change the whole way we are viewing this part of the world. and the ukraine on the ground, we will not see it as it was. directionmoving in a that we are going to be challenged for years to come. >> re: going to end up with the ukraine where we see much more partomy from the eastern under a russian sphere of influence? >> definitely a new accommodation will be reached just because the situation is sustainable. the sanctions we are applying is the last resort, even though -- you have seen they move the market in a way we haven't seen. including the fact for the first time we have a massive push toward the country that is more or less integrated in the world economy system. appliedthe sanctions before were two countries that

were marginal. russia is not marginal. from this perspective, the arsenal of tools that we have will be in play. maybe it will not be one melody. we need the sin city and the orchestra of the european union and the united states and the whole world community. iraq. i ask you about what happened there? iraq? nato be involved in we are looking at a withdrawal from afghanistan, any people are asking about whether there was an nato role in afghanistan. >> we are going to be involved by default because we cannot say , it is none of our business. how would we implement such a strategy? the point is how we will get involved. >> do we get funding, airstrikes? airstrikes, controlling the situation on the ground, but let's not forget.

the challenge that the iraqis face is not the iraq he challenge. tim day -- today i heard from a istinguished friend that it the iraqis business, we will keep out and give them money and weapons. the type of challenge will go across the board. it is not going to stay confined within the limits of some area within the middle east. time to time when something atrocious happens it will be on the front page, no, it is the type of challenge that is here to stay. first. second, it is not going to be something that we are going to be able to tackle without understanding the profound challenge tour the set of values, toward the world system built after the cold war. >> does the west underestimate isis? ?ave they been underestimated

we quickly had to reevaluate the threat it can pose. >> i don't see underestimation. the people in charge are well aware. i think that the general public is finally getting in a position to grasp what is going on. >> social media has changed that. >> absolutely, and the way they propagated this war. it is becoming a tool of the day. got much better informed about the type of challenges we are facing. some say that it was a tool of their advancement that backfired because the civilized world knows what it is all about. dr.hank you for joining us, alexander mirtchev board director of the atlantic council of the united states. >> the countdown is on to the

scottish independence vote. yes vote could bring severe consequences. we will debate the impact.

>> welcome back i'm anna edwards in london and this is "on the move." many think that germany will hold its ground as low inflation is pressing to keep interest rates at a record low. joining us now, kevin daly. how do you think the npc are feeling right now. their two hawks calling for interest-rate hikes the last time around. has anything changed? that dissenters are not a good predictor of the future of the npc's decisions. we will attach more weight to the inflation report itself which we thought and everyone thought was very dovish relative to market expectations. our expectation is that the

first rate hike will come early next year in q1 of 2015. part of the inflation report is the risk relative to that report were skewed toward an earlier move. in light of the inflation report, with this focus on weak wage growth with the bank of england lowering investment to the sustainable rate. rip around the forecast is more evenly balanced. looms of course, what is your base case? what happens on the 18th of september? is that thecase will win. it remains most people's base case. a sharp narrowing in opinion polls since the second televised debate. and alex hammond is widely considered to have one. it is possible we will see more

narrowing in the opinion polls. not all the pollsters have released their polls yet. we still think there will be a no vote overall, because though there has been a narrowing of the polls there is still a six percentage point gap. with two weeks ago that is a big gap. u.k., where televised debates are more common, one finds that the postdebate bounce from the winning side in a fade over theo days and weeks afterward. it may be that this bounce for the yes camp will fade. >> are you thinking about what could happen if there were to be a yes vote? how do could be impact be? we still think the will win,

we are more nervous about the outcome now. i would say, first of all, in the long run there is no reason to believe why scotland couldn't rosborough as an independent country. our concerns are predominantly about the short to medium term. the first, is in the event of a yes vote there will be a prolonged. of negotiation between scotland and the rest of the u.k. about some fundamental issues. whether scotland can maintain sterling as a currency am a about the debt, scotland will have to negotiate with the eu to see if it can remain a part. that uncertainty will in and of to the create a damage scottish economy and the broader u.k. economy. the second is a more radical issue come a the uncertainty about whether scotland will create a currency

crisis within the u.k. as there is flight and every incentive for flight from scottish-based assets and financial institutions. >> do you think the westminster government are bluffing over the currency or do they fully intend to stick to their word that scotland will not be able to use with their permission, the pound. view is that they are not bluffing. was one key lesson from the eurozone crisis, it is that without the right institutions, without the right degree of risk sharing through fiscal and political integration, it is difficult to maintain a workable monetary union. itthe event of independence, does make sense for scotland to

have separate currency. days after, if there were to be a yes vote, how significant would it be that the bank of england has pledged to retain responsibility to the whole u.k. financial system. will that calm things? it will mediate the worst of the effects. the bank of england will remain responsible like they said for the financial system up until independence which is scheduled to take place in 2016. as the date approaches, it still won't be able to upset all of the effects. be the equipment -- equivalent of a mario draghi level of commitment to maintain the monetary union because the political view is that they will not maintain the monetary union. the bank ofing england standing behind the u.k., there will still be an incentive for investors to fromraw their funds

scottish based assets and financial institutions. kevin daly, chief u.k. at goldman sachs. full coverage of the bank of england and ecb conference today. you can watch the news conference live and in full on bloomberg. " is coming up at the top of the hour. >> the ecb will be the top of the agenda. we will talk to martin wolf. beginning one of the chapters on the eurozone, he says the euro has been a disaster. there is no other word for it. he is not impressed with a single currency and has not been impressed with the austerity measures that have been imposed out of berlin. --has not been impact

impressed with the policy response. what happens next? what does draghi need to do? we will discuss all of that with him. we will also pick up on what you were speaking to kevin about, whether or not the u.k. can continue with the currency of the union. i suspect the answer is no. talking of building things, we are going to be talking to lego. lego is a private company. huge.s and it will be fascinating to evolvingthey see it and what happens next in terms of where you take lego. the, we will take on russian sanctions story and the downgrading of the euro zone economy. all of that coming up. the eurozone, and lego. what more do you want?

>> all of the building blocks for a great show. the hour.e top of come a smart watch, a virtual reality headset and an curved phone.

>> samsung plants a flag at the tech fair. is it enough? here is an analyst's take. i think this is very nice. with interesting apps, it is not is something gimmicky that people think they need. don't forget the large-screen smartphone. six inches, is not very successful in the overall market. that is the mainstream. i don't think this product we have seen today is going to be a game changer. it seems like, here is another and it's not necessary

to put that in there. i do think there is an opportunity for wearables, for different phones. we are seeing a number that have been growing. that is definitely key and that is what we don't see yet. .t's a different product it is not competition. it's a different approach. a is something that probably little more toward the gaming and entertainment kind of consumer. it is actually a consumer product. it is kind of a development project. in that sense it has a market already there. but it is very limited still. overall it it shows what samsung is after, the internet of things platform and wearables. future of wearables or

virtual, can it be both? that is it for "on the move." follow me on twitter. have a good day. ♪

surprise surge in factory orders out of germany i head of the ecb rate decision this morning. russia topping the agenda. nato leaders meeting in wales as president putin and partial bingo say they are working towards a resolution in ukraine. plus, live with lego. the cfo releases the company's earnings with us. we will break down the results piece by piece.