>> grilled on the pound. mark carney says an independent scotland would need to build up reserves. to move theirns headquarters to london if the scott to vote yes. >> and president obama pledges to destroy the islamic state in iraq and syria. >> i can announce that america will lead a broad coalition to roll back the terrorist threat. >> welcome to "countdown," i am

mark barton. >> and i am manus cranny. pledged ant obama campaign to destroy islamic state militants in iraq and syria. he said the u.s. would lead april election -- lead a broad coalition. our middle east at older -- editor has more. physicist reggie everyone was waiting for? everyones the strategy was waiting for? >> yes, i think it did. the actualter speech, administration officials saying the strategy would include for example evading and equipping -- the vetting and equipping of rebel groups. the strategy could easily

include extracts in syria -- could even include airstrikes in syria. terroristshunt down that threaten our country wherever they are. that means i will not fail to take action in syria as well as iraq. if you threaten america, you will find ahaven. >> -- no safe have. >> secretary kerry is already in in saudiing -- he is flesh outsumably to details. the jordanians will also play a role. this on the eve of the september 11 attacks. is keen to stress this is not a repeat of the last war

in iraq. >> very much so. it is different for many reasons which are obvious. for a start, they want the americans to be there. the iraqi government is going to help them deal with the sunni extremists. who have murdered and terrorized, including.the beheading of two journalists. they have the support of neighboring countries like jordan and saudi arabia. he is adamant there will be no u.s. boots on the ground. the american people to understand how the effort will be different from the wars in iraq and afghanistan. it will not involve american combat troops fighting on foreign soil. >> there are many unanswered questions despite the speech ended details fleshed out by administration officials --

despite the details. by administration officials. what is it all going to cost? is big unanswered question what about the syrian president? the groups are operating in syria to fight against him. what then will the americans do -- go home or support the rebel groups in their fight against assad? >> thank you, elliott. our middle east editor in tel aviv. nationalist leader may be losing ground according to a poll. leads by six percentage points. side.7% support the yes that is when you exclude the undecided voters. that follows another recent

survey that put the yes camp ahead for the first time this year. let's digest the latest poll. one week until the vote. comingfor the yes camp as the no campaign launch of their -- asaunches the no campaign launches their love bomb. the posters that have done this latest poll, they put the no camp ahead at five or six points. that is no change since the last poll. actually, looking back over the recent polls, has been a kind of gap in the no and yes. this goes slightly against what the poll was telling us. this is a different company with different methodology.

what interests me is the date. they did polling between the fifth and ninth. theother poll came out on seventh to read some of it would have been around the time people became aware this could go in the yes to reaction. you wonder whether that is circular. >> i think this is the whole point of polling. look at the discussions we have had about markets, polls. the momentum behind the newsprint company. obviously this plays into -- >> another poster saying it is star -- too close to call. >> there have been five main polls and this shows the confusion of polls. vote is between 39-48%. >> and the undecided -- theur friend said

undecideds don't matter. >> sometimes it depends on the question. friends wereour saying. because the question about how you will vote. that is why he suggested they got more undecideds. that is the polling. >> the businesses have come out with their views. these are the voices of people captains ofabins -- industry. interesting, he shifted and did not talk about the nazi. the north sea. he is joining in on the debate.

a ceo says, are responsibilities to protect the interests of our customers and shareholders. going back to the session yesterday -- the discussion the logistical issues he raised were week. is aced -- this really one-way ticket to uncertainty. you sent me the story, anna. whiskey distillers, 4.3 billion pounds of whiskey. the distillers association says 20% of their business -- eu membership is not assured. lloyd's are making contingency plans. a. -- to sayed in today.

the analyst says, it doesn't matter if it is a yes vote. he reckons both banks will leave. he says the cost will be one million pounds. the cost to scotland with regard to reserves is very important. the governor spoke. when you have a financial toustry so big relative industry, the financial sector is 10 times the gdp. needid traditionally you reserves between 25%-100% of gdp. if you are a country like scotland or hong kong, you need more. that means scotland is very short of reserves. know how the- reserves are going to be split. it probably means higher taxes for scotland or less spending.

>> or if the banks move south, that will change things. bank of montréal is 300 miles away. royal bank of canada has moved headquarters. both of those moves happen in the 1970's despite the fact that there is no independence for québec. thoughts about moving headquarters away from a part of the u.k. that might split, they were set in motion. >> my lighthearted quote of the day. from the treasury financial secretary. he said, it looks like an independent scotland will have more panderers then insurance companies. moreng to a debate about pandas in scotland then tory mps. he said, with lloyds and rbs

leaving, there will be more pandas. aboutre's a debate whether the panda in edinburgh is pregnant. >> copperheads of coverage of the story. >> -- comprehensive coverage of the story. >> joining the scotland conversation. please do send us your tweet and tell us what you think of the show. we want. -- think of the show. next, who will pay the piper if the bank of england refuses to be the lender of last resort? we speak to northern trust corp.'s chief economist after the break.

>> welcome back, i am anna edwards. according to a person familiar matter, theter -- fine could be similar to a settlement with the u.s.

expected to be about $650 million. a ceo tightened his grip on fiat for arig the top job at ahead of the wall street listing. we spoke exclusively to the former for ari chairman -- for erarri chairman. years,.e been here 23 we have increased the perimeter and value of the company. present a story of internal revenue. i am pleased to leave the company, most of all a company with a fantastic -- in my opinion, the best company in the world. anna will succeed her father. this makes for the most powerful woman in european banking.

she replaces her father who died of a heart attack on tuesday. week until scotland's independence referendum. maintains, england it will not be edinburgh's lender of last resort. the lender of last resort is centered around a central bank. having a central bank is not by definition a credible lender of last resort. backeds to be act up -- up by fiscal resources. before that, he was head of the federal reserve risk division. so much to discuss when it comes to scotland. what is that the forefront of your thinking when you view the

votes seven days from today? >> it strikes me that this has cut the markets offsides. they had not thought much of it before. of the economic analysis around separation is finally being done. are paralyzinges the markets. the central bank in question at the forefront. mr. carney making it clear the pound would not be shared. having seen the results of monetary but not other integrations across the channel. what banking institutions would remain with their headquarters there giving somebody tax uncertainties? >> what kind of impact is this happening -- having on investors and the flows you are monitoring? . we had some numbers today. in the past two months, they have drawn $2 million -- $2 billion from u.k. equity funds.

something people are broadly worrying about? uncertainty is unfriendly to the investment climate. as you think about allocation, this is a variable you haven't reckoned with. if you think about the future economic performance, it is difficult to see long-term and i economy and investment markets -termfficult to see long given the economy and investment markets. >> so far you in modeling has been scarce. the concurrency risk for here in the u.k., is that something that may have an impact in terms of how carney looks at the rate cycle next year? >> even though he said, the rate

hike is on the way, can he be so sure? box he is been -- >> he is being driven by the fundamentals. a desire to begin unwinding the excessive amounts of monetary accommodation in place since the crisis. he will have to monitor the trade relationships that written will have with others that could be changed dramatically, among the other elements whether an independent scotland would be granted automatic admission to an eu so as to not encourage more separatism. if there is an economic impact from a yes vote of whatever nature, the bank will act accordingly. if there is a yes vote, what impact on that cited you expect? >> the uncertainty is going to cause a bit of a flurry.

remember scotland accounts for only 9% of u.k. gdp. >> what about spillover? in england rein in spending because of uncertainty n- will people in england rei in spending because of uncertainty arena,investment these are the things that the bank of england will remain focused on. >> thank you very much. we will back with you in a discuss further issues with the chief economist at northern trust. ♪ >> welcome back to countdown.

manusany scrawny. -- cranny. let's move the conversation on to the fed. the discussion about the language, low rates for a considerable time, that is the core of his angst. the politics of the fed, what is your feeling? >> we have three -- arrived at a

moment we hoped we would reach. the opportunity begins -- exists to begin unwinding monetary accommodation. there are an increasing number of voices that think the process ought to start sooner than later. they are concerned about financial stability, concerned that leaving rates too low too long will contribute to the kind of access that contribute it to the crisis in 2008. one of the things about leadership is forming consensus among people with different views. janet, in my view, is a skilled debater and a mediator. she has to come out of each session with enough votes so the fed is united. if not, it will create a market outcome she would not like. bubbles beingout

created by low rates. yet i read stories about how can languagehange the without leading to a rise in bond yields. should that be the worry, given what you said before? it comes from a good place. if it is about recovery -- >> there is a fear of addiction to easy money, both in the u.k. and u.s.. beginning to wean oneself from that addiction has to be done carefully. the statement is one instrument that can be used to build the consensus and keep everybody in line. the markets are watching it closely, thinking not just of the dates but long on the road what that might mean for the valuations of stocks and bonds. ? productive out -- >> you talked about janet yellen's skills. view mario

draghi's skills getting the germans on board for qe? do you expect full qe? can to get the germans on board? >> mr. draghi has done a hiserful job bringing colleagues to this point. my question is whether it will be enough. he has seen the influence of things like deflation can really put an economy into a bad place for a long time. the playbook calls for early action, large action, sustained action. you sell it to the market at every turn. he has not been able to do it. he is getting impatient. i liked his passion at the last press conference with the limitations of structural and fiscal problems. he is directing attention at those who should be his partners.

>> thank you for coming in. northern trust. >> time in london, 6:26. agricultural companies take the heat after the latest round of sanctions. ♪

>> welcome back to countdown. i am manus cranny. marketsforeign-exchange check. you begin to understand what the potential is when you get a bowl . it came out yesterday evening, putting the no caps on ahead by six points. give the market a bit of a boost. eye on the dollar sterling level. moving along to euro-dollar.

he is going to speak later this evening. treating low at 129. euro-dollar is at the highest level we have seen since january. mathematicss to fx, or simple. the bottom of your screen, the aussie dollar. you are seeing it move higher. employers, record jobs growth adding 121,000 jobs. eye, a critical level for stop losses. >> top headlines. president obama has pledged a relentless campaign to destroy islamic extremists's. includes relying on

middle east allies and using air support. terroristshunt down who threaten our country wherever they are. that means i will not hesitate to take action against them in syria as well direct the rate is a corporate goal of my presence he -- as well as iraq. is a core principle of my presidency. business leaders in britain are stepping into help save the nation and stop scottish independence. oscar pistorius may learn his judicial fate today. the judge is expected to hand down the verdict on whether he has been found that merck -- guilty of murdering his girlfriend. >> china received a boost in

stimulus outlook. lowerflation comes in than the market had expected. prices collapsing. what is the take carhere? >> one interpretation could be positive. low inflation does the government more room to stimulate. a more obvious angle is the abouts reinforce concerns weakness in the economy. factory gate races have been falling for 13 months. entrenched deflation hits company profits. for factorieses to invest more in the future. in the latest data, some signs that the inflationary pressure is creeping into consumer prices. the consumer price index came down on a year on year basis.

y, five of the eight subcomponents of the and summer price index were flat or falling on a month on month basis. >> what does it mean for growth in the policy going forward? we are hearing from the leadership that you cannot depend on stimulus for growth. this is a message that we could change -- they have given. >> china is paying the price for overdoing past stimulus from 2009 onwards for a number of years. we saw extremely rapid growth in bank lending. that kept the economy ticking and corporate powers -- borrowers overextended. that overhang of debt and a for -- and a forans

jollity means even though governments low, the does not have the space to stimulate. >> thank you for the roundup. reporting from beijing. ukraineng to the russia conflict, the agricultural sector continues to feel the impact. grain prices under pressure. are agricultural companies bracing for the uncertainty? good morning, sir. thank you for joining us. how are you affected by the ongoing crisis between russia and ukraine? >> the exposure of our company, especially in the food business poland.export from the apple harvest is critical. we expect a flood of apples and

other fruits in western europe. this will create are sure the pricing for fruits, -- pressure for the pricing on fruits, especially apples. we are talking about 750,000 tons. traderssh farmers and are exporting to traders. what should they do? there is no alternative. we have to struggle with that. the european market -- the task will be to open more so asian markets and africa can be new markets for european growers and trading companies. >> you think some of the pain of the sanctions and retaliatory sanctions should be shared around europe a little bit? some businesses more exposed. >> i don't know how that should

work. there are discussions about subsidies and support payments to the farmers and some companies -- in some countries. i don't think we can justify groupsing agriculture with regard to 850 million people starving all over the world. the question is, if the commission is willing to pay something, whether we don't do use this money to open the markets, especially in asia. and create marketing activities in this interesting market for the agribusiness and dairy. the dairy industry and the meat industry. they are all affected by sanctions. >> i would love to know how germans perceive merkel's handling of the sanctions. europe has been accused of being slow. they have been slow to act.

how do people perceive merkel? small in her position with putin? >> there was some weakness in the polls. i think the citizens in germany are very pleased with the performance of the government. especially mrs. merkel. she is the most popular politician in our country. i think she is doing a great gob. what is the alternative? this new discussion, whether they have speed up with new sanctions, they look to be faster than the other heads of government in europe -- at the end of the day, it will be a compromise as always. she is a world champion in creating compromises. >> we would love to hear your view on the scottish referendum. your own view and the view from germany. how are germans perceive any referendum? you are bavarian so you know what is like to have local pride. >> of course. >> how are you perceiving the

events? how are businesses perceiving what is happening? >> we do not really understand what the purpose of the separation movement is. i am a bavarian with bavarian roots. we feel special in our country but we are part of the system. what is going to happen with scotland and the scottish citizens, if they are really iaving u.k. and the union, have doubts that the situation will be improved. i think it is more of a psychological and emotional thing. from a business point of view, it is not in favor of scotland to leave the united kingdom. i don't see any advantage for the people. >> businesses cannot vote for that kind of uncertainty. >> exactly. it is bad for investors. is the central-

bank trying to get businesses engaged in terms of finance? the german position is clear. they don't want the ecb to buy bonds. how do you see the ecb? you one more from them? do you want take -- more from them? what is your take? >> are debt structure is stable. it is not going down. so far, i think it is a question of alternatives. i believe mr. draghi and his team are doing a great job. maybe it will be criticized in germany because of the bank there. >> they will be calling you later on. >> sending you the script. >> things a lot. what is the reality? the rally is more or less, --

the reality is,, who should have had the power and the influence to handle such a crisis? >i think draghi did a good job. >> thanks for joining us. good to get your thoughts on a host of topics. up, and a bolton boltin becomes the top female banker. what will the change mean for the bank? ♪ >> welcome back.

time for today's company news. activision says the highly "nticipated game "destiny generated $500 million on revenue on its first day. they are spending as much as half $1 billion to make and the market the game, making it one of the most expensive ever. of theman maker smartphone game shadow king is

preparing an ipo. mucher's plans to raise as $1.5 billion to invest in acquisitions. the are building up their advertising business and investing in engineers. the oldesta botin, daughter of the d ceased deceased -- of the santander chairman. this makes her one of the most powerful women in banking. it is phenomenal when you look at this. a woman who started in the business, well over 25 years ago.

she had been almost brought up in a dynastic family. she is 53. if you think about santander, she has been in the u.k. -- we broke the news she had lost her father -- she drove set tender in the u.k. and the driver of every. she speaks five languages. she was a champion sportswoman for spain in 1973. she was winning medals. she has done powerful, big acquisitions. she then the meetings after 7:00 meetings after 7:00 in the evening because of family life. it speaks volumes in terms of balancing. >> i love the bloomberg story talking about her history. she said she grew up in a normal household in santander where she

made her own bed and her father was sometimes eating sardines from a can for breakfast. wonderful. >> very nice. she has been in the business for 26 years. as somebody points out in the piece, the preparation did not start a few years ago. >> some of the great and good in banking have been quick to support ana's position. of the most one highly respected thinkers in the world. her experience, judgment, strong management skills will continue to define santander is one of the most important global financial and the two shins. that coming from -- she has done very well. very much, they are lining up to support her in this position.

heathe deliver the same -- and the bank and the position -- >> they have done well. >> 19% return by him. yourself, andk i'm not detracting from his achievements, how much of that is to do with the renaissance in buying european assets? does what she is going to have to live up to. >> it brings up the question of women in the board room. holde biggest banks, women just 5% of key executive jobs. seniorwill be the most executive woman at any european bank. >> far more in the u.s.. the 10 of proportion at largest u.s. counterparts. handed a ceo been

job at the 10 largest banks. >> is it still important to play golf? >> for banking? >> i was quite surprised to read that. 1973, 1974, she was on a spanish team. >> will take a short break. coming up, the u.k. has used -- we will tell you how the country cap into its number one -- we are talking beer. ♪

>> welcome back, i am mark barton. do join us on twitter. please. >> i think is just a campaign by you. >> we want you to be part of the conversation. anything you like, anything you don't like. we are sure to please and have intelligent the date and we want dayo be part of that -- four of my twitter. >> day for. >> i wanted to talk about the bond villain in the spy who loved me. lovely picture of him.

he was a picture with the scary teeth. nd was my first on -- bo henchman i was scared of. film i wasond properly aware of. he died overnight. very sad. >> taking trips on -- carry-ons. >> you go first and then i will do mine. >> i was going to talk about your. -- beer. the u.k. now has more breweries per head of population than any other country. they seem to be proud of this. this is data from the good beer guide. guide to significant real ale among young drinkers. there is now one brewery for

every 50,000 people in britain. since theat any time 1930's and 1940's. >> i would give it all a go. >> i'm not fussy. anything with alcohol will suit me. gary neville. formerknow who he is, manchester united player and a coach. he has issued a scathing attack on manchester united's transfer policy. manchester united spent 150 million pounds breaking the british transfer record. was betting on two transfers. remember when england beat switzerland 2-0. he was born and bred in manchester, brought up for the

trading system. sad states a stead -- of affairs when they are selling their home grown and home educated players. >> part of the family having invested so much into manchester united, doing it through leverage. it goes back to the point of the transfer window. >> you do desperate things and spend big money on players. but he wasn't quite player -- proven. said that is basically tipped them over the edge. they have so many strikers. he doesn't know how they will manage the team he read it says a lot when a former legend -- >> i have got a picture, about life, it is a

bizarre picture. yesterdayspend interviewing sir keith mills. this is a picture, i think this is ironic for a couple of different reasons. camillaince charles and with the two sons. not that i need to introduce them. who would have ever thought you would see a photograph of all -- isyals supporting ironic photograph. familynstitution of the purity invictus games, great start. frightened of cable cars ever since. i couldn't even bigger the word. sad news.

countdown continues in the next hour. just a week away, we look at the business breakdown for independent scotland. 6:56 in london. ♪

governornk of england says scotland would need to build up its reserves. moves and lloyd's plan to their headquarters to london if voters vote yes on the referendum. >> president obama pledges to destroy the islamic state in iraq and syria. >> i can announce that amerco will lead a broad coalition to roll back -- that america will lead a broad coalition to roll back this terrorist threat. >> this is "countdown."

it is 7:00 here in london. president barack obama has destroya campaign to militants in iraq and syria. he said the u.s. would lead a broad coalition compromising -- comprising american air power. was this the strategy everyone was waiting for? the outlined his objectives and america's determination to pursue those objectives. more detail ong what the words would translate to in terms of action, they said it would include, for example, the arming and the equipping and the training of embedded syrian rebel groups inside camps, inside saudi arabia. and this strategy could include

airstrikes on syria. >> i have made it clear that we will hunt down terrorists wherever they are. that means i will not hesitate to take action against isil in syria as well as iraq. this is the corporate couple of my presidency. if you threaten america, you will find no safe haven. the ackermann -- the acronym used to describe isis in syria. yesterday lending support for the iraqi government and try to get commitments from the iraqis as to how they would play a role in dealing with the islamic state. -- we also understand the jordanians will play a role in this broad coalition that america lands to leave the -- plans to lead against the

islamic state. >> this is not a repeat of the war in iraq, yes? >> there are obvious differences. i suppose in a sense, it is the iraqi government that wants the u.s. to be involved in this and it will be supporting the iraqi government in the fight against these sunni extremists. the iraqis want them there. such as jordan and saudi arabia want this as well. from an american presence perspective and his relationship with the voters, the most important difference between this and previous iraqi incursions is that there will be no u.s. boots on the ground. >> i want the american people to understand how this effort will be different from the wars in iraq and gas and. -- and afghanistan.

it will not involve american troops fighting on foreign soil. >> there are so many unanswered questions as to what is going to happen, particularly with these training camps. when are they going to be set up? where will they be? have many rebel groups will be adequately vetted? with a than b in a position to do battle with the very well-trained and very well-equipped members of the islamic state? these are -- there is a eight unanswered question that was not touched upon. what does this mean for president bashar al-assad in syria? argument state, islamic state is routed, what will happen then? idll the u.s. stay on to a rebel groups against bashar al-assad? >> let's turn our attention to scotland. one week to go until the referendum on whether scotland

recs away from the rest of the u.k. giving us a different picture, six percentage point lead for the note camp, which is -- the no camp. regardless of what the polls show us, the banking sector in scotland is talking about contingency plans. >> i was talking to you about how lloyd's announced its contingency plan late yesterday and rbs will do the same thing. it has released a statement saying it would he necessary to domicile.some -- to re and a lot of material uncertainties arise from the referendum. domicile willto re

not affect all banking. both of these banks are domiciled in scotland. >> the u.k. government owns most of rbs still. if you are the u.k. government and you have a big investment of u.k. taxpayers money to disappear into another country, people are not happy with that. >> the number of jobs -- >> one in eight. >> one in eight are in financial services. are in amazing where we the campaign where you have corporate's make detailed statement about the impact. >> there were a lot yesterday. >> there were, indeed. he has come out, the ceo of bp,

the future prospect of the north sea is best served by maintaining the integrity of the united kingdom. he talks about oil reserves and there is a whole debate from the former chairman in word of john wood group. great debate over the north sea oil reserves because they are so incredibly important to the campaign in terms of financial integrity. which takes us back to carney. >> reserves, reserves, rick deserves -- reserves. you need the reserves to back it up, financial reserves. and you need reserves, if you have a big financial sector, as carney said yesterday. the assets in scotland

are 10 times gdp. he is saying you probably need 25% to 100% of gdp in reserves held by the central bank. buffer scotland, the information is you probably need more than 100%. on hundred 20% like hong kong,. so we are talking about 150 billion pounds, which means that many of the media is saying today more taxation or less spending. ? >> a very interesting report from credit suisse this team -- this week. they say even if the bank of england word to guarantee deposit sets, it would the at a deeper price. suggesting credit suisse that there would be a deep recession in scotland ingven by banks redomicile

and legal disputes over the north sea oil. >> it is something like 2 billion pounds in terms of net outflows. more outflow days than infobase. days -- inflow days. if you have risk, reduce. if you can hedge your position, hedge your position. there is one stock doing quite nicely. rectally --t to next directly. if you are a shareholder, you're going to get 50 pence of the dividend. that is certainly a lot higher than the market expected. the market was expecting 44 pence.

just a little bit shy of what the market had estimated in revenue. they said they will make the -- between 775 and 850. the fourth quarter gets interesting. 775 date 15, they are sticking with that forecast. grant --it is total total brand growth. have a look at the chart price on this. yesterday, up 35% versus a 6% drop in the stoxx 600.

the retail index is about 15. doing quite nicely. ubs appears to be gaining market share because they are going for full price sale versus getting caught in the discounters trap. i am looking for the word scotland. can't see it just yet. discounters, they have become the bane of its life. it is the fourth biggest uber market. -- biggest supermarket. billion, that is pretty much -- 8.5 billion, that is pretty much in estimates. it has been hit harder than everyone. they are luring customers with

cheaper goods and no-frills offerings. what this company is doing is cutting prices itself that compete directly with discounters. it is counting on volume growth to off that -- to offset profitability. the company says it is confident on 2 billion pounds of cash, one billion pounds of cost savings over three years. it is a tough job for the chief executive. it is not just him that his suffering. it is tesco. they lost a chief executive because, among other things, the emergence of those discounters. but you have to say, like-for-like sales haven't burdened -- >> they were very late to the online party. i was checking the tv stations yesterday afternoon. .ou see this huge ad company

they are undercutting everybody else online. >> they say we are now expecting 60 to 70 stores this year, which is lower than the guidance. follow us on twitter, take part on in the online conversation. >> do your people say nice things to you? >> do talk to us. tell us what you think. that is where you can find us. plans,is financial richards group. stay with us on countdown.

>> welcome back to "countdown." with just a week to go until the the bank said it

will not be the lender of last resort. would only england have a short-term role in independent scotland. has a bank of england greater responsibility for financial stability. we are not solely responsible, but we have a range of responsibilities such as lender of last resort including other aspects. those responsibilities will continue, would continue through a transition period. the question is what happens beyond the transition period if that were to come to pass. by richardoined scroop. i am talking about the re domiciling.

how worried are you about this vote in a weeks time? think the uncertainty it is causing in the markets will hurt both the u.k. and the scottish economy. u.k.,vote will hurt the england as well as scotland. estimates are that they would take off the recovery -- we have seen it come off recently with the closeness of the polls. but i think that has come under pressure, especially from u.k. running companies who will feel the and cap -- the impact from that.

the real problems are what happens with the currency and with scottish retail deposits. we have seen lloyds and rbs talking about redomiciling to the u.k. >> we talked to unit credit earlier this week. he did not think it was a worthy example. do you think it has any relevance? looked at the financial applications on what happened to that when they separated the czech republic and slovakia. corporate and customers took deposits away from the slovak banks assuming they would have a lower currency. they payve a payment, them quickly. had a payment for the

slovak end, you extended that. the slovak banks had a problem -- >> do you think we are at real risk your? >> -- is here? >> i think a separation will happen. what currency they go for, if they go for their own currency, the scottish town, then that -- scottish pound, then that would the a concern for customers in retail deposits. there is a risk. >> we will come back to you in a second. he will be back. we will be back in just a second. stay with us.

richard with us is scroopo. we were just mentioning it is national day and catalonia and they will have a variety of marches, protests, various things. the whole scottish debate, does it embolden the debate around spanish assets? does it change the debate around her full assets? we have seen government bond

moves. >> the catalonian movement has lost some support. that has been losing support. a yes vote for scotland will actually embolden the catalans, they basks in spain to push for their independence which they are area proud of -- are very proud of their nationalistic too.tities, we -- ireal estate think realistically, it is unlikely they will achieve it. the spanish government is not talking about letting the catalans have a legal vote. they will have their own vote. but they will have no legal standing. yes.'t see rajoy saying he would capitulate on the

and go with madrid's view and not hold a referendum. the catalan region is very light on being parts of spain. their trade is obviously within spain and the financial implications of separating, being such a small state, i think would be damaging for them, too. >> what are you doing now? what are you buying? what is your investment strategy at this time? >> we are really looking at overseas earnings.

ica global fund where we are moreover with the u.s. at the moment, even those assets are at all-time highs. the steering -- the strength of the recovery in the u.s. is encouraging. emerging markets will start having a bit of a recovery after being hit very hard earlier in the year. there are recovery signs in india. >> what about russian-sensitive stocks? >> we are not necessarily a lame game there. how solid the peace deal will be has yet to be seen. berg -- >> thank you very much for joining us. >> 7:26 in london. independence fever hits spain.

should catalonia separate itself?

>> welcome back to "countdown." time to check on what foreign exchange dealers are doing. dollar sterling, 1.62. the no vote is on the upper calling on polls and have been taken. that has started to invigorate dollars. you still see major companies selling u.k. assets very easy overvalued calls coming from a

whole variety of places. eithermomentum is against sterling but the no vote gives a bit of a boost this morning. let's have a look at a couple of other currencies. we have aussie dollar, lawyers adding record number of jobs in august. that is boosting the aussie dollar. that is the level where stop losses to be. by.euro-dollar getting draghi speaks-- this evening. bear in mind the difference between the u.s. and here in europe, interest rates are the widest for 15 years. >> these are the top headlines. president obama has alleged a relentless campaign -- has pledged a rule atlas campaign

against islamist extremists. moreover, i have made it clear that we will hunt down terrorists wherever they are. that means i will not hesitate to take action against isil in syria as well as iraq. this is the core principle of my presidency. if you threaten america, you will find no safe haven. some top business leaders are joining a last-ditch effort to save the u.k.. bp is among the heavyweights joining prime minister cameron in his efforts to save the union and stop scottish independence. we are awaiting the verdict for oscar pistorius. the judge is expected to hand down the ruling today on whether the athlete is guilty of the murder of reeva steenkamp on valentine's day last year. strikes inence fever

spain. a large demonstration in favor of a referendum. that will take place in the region of catalonia today. fascinating. here it is, national day, protest on the way, the scottish vote, the referendum is on a knife edge. , whattland did vote yea would that do? would that embolden those in catalonia to go for an independence vote? >> absolutely. it is clear that scotland provides the path in terms of how unorganized decision can be done. it provides the path on how you can negotiate, whether you have to exit and negotiate entry again. fors very important

national audi -- nationality leaders in catalonia. let's say that everybody is thinking that politicians will be rational and everything will be fine, flowers, beautiful. but what if you have really hard negotiations, especially in skull and -- in skull and not getting all the concessions that they want. are to sayy -- they that this is very difficult and be careful what you wish for. the negotiations between scotland and brussels, do you have a sense of how difficult that will be? towe have had pointed out us, members of the scottish national party, nothing changes in terms of their membership with the eu if there is a yes vote because they are still part of the u.k.. -- there is at year-and-a-half were

negotiations in london take place. do you sense that politicians will be pragmatic? these people are already in the eu, let's just let them stay? or will they be principles in some way? >> i think they have a clear incentive to be pragmatic. at the end of the day, let's remember that we are not out of the woods yet in terms of the crisis. at the end of the day, there is a lot of margin to negotiate. spain has a huge incentive not to give any concessions. i think spain has a huge incentive regardless of what happens to catalonia, which is a separate russian. but on the international level and the media -- the eu level to make an excellent case. >> is the independence vote

going to go ahead and catalonia or not? there is a process, isn't there? independence is unclear. and even if the constitutional call ruled it down. >> in terms of process, the catalan government has to approve to allow the government to organize the referendum. and it would approve a decree calling the referendum on the ninth of november, which is the chosen date. those two laws probably will be challenged by the madrid government before the constitutional court. constitutionalhe court will cancel those votes. but then the ball will be in the field of a premise or catalonia and he will have to decide whether to hold an illegal referendum or say i cannot do anything because i want to do everything legally. >> if his -- do you see his coalition hold together? >> if he says i will not hold a

lead will -- an illegal referendum, it will be tough. the main solution partner says we have a deal that you would hold a referendum. is an incentive not to have an illegal vote. the whole point of the nationalist movement is to do things according to law, according to international law. i think that is crucial. mas and his death -- what do you think of mas? where do you think you will fall? i don't think he is pragmatic at the end of the day. let's not forget that his government was implementing some of the toughest austerity caps in the history of catalonia. he has been trying to manage both economic -- both the economy and the nationalistic

ways. i think he has an incentive not to actually define madrid at the end of the day. >> in terms of looking at the precedent that scotland does here, do you think the existence of the eu would change the debate around small states and whether they have the confidence to go for independence? it redefines their lower -- their role as a nationstate we have this umbra organization that has been gaining momentum over the last decade. would say globalization has changed the incentives for political communities. they show that smaller states can compete in the global arena. that provides a powerful example to say we can go along. essentially, the eu will provide you the security not only from the point of security itself, but from the economic interview. we are all -- economic want of

you -- economic point of view. entere all corrected -- we are all interconnected. >> time has run out for the european union competition commission. the internet search giant will not be will to reach a 2010 case.on a what is next for google? weeks or months of uncertainty. october 31 is the deadline for this commission. it does not look like there will be an agreement. he is still working on reaching some sort of settlement with is not all that he that optimistic and it does not seem like he will be able to hand over a finished product.

he said -- a statement of objection is a precursor to a fine. remember, it is contingent on revenues. and google has lots of revenues. >> who will decide google's fate now? it is the former danish economy minister named yesterday as the competition commissioner. she spoke yesterday about the importance of transparency. google years transparency and they may be concerned because there is a lot of complaints, especially from companies like microsoft, that they haven't been transparent in this entire process. what microsoft says is that, after the interim test settlement, search results

continue to favor google results, google products. it looks like we will have a longer fight and a more extensive one -- more expensive one for google here i. europe's top female banker as she succeeds her father. stay with us for the details.

today is catalan national day. it seems appropriate to look at the spanish bond market. yields have been rising for three days. i thought how much of this is down to what is happening in stock when, -- in scotland and other events. the the last three days, 10-year is up 21 basis points. that is before today. let's look at some of the other government on markets -- bond markets. italy, france, germany have also seen their bond markets follow the last three days. -- paul over the last three

days. -- fall over the last three days. over the last year, the spanish bond yield has fallen roughly 4.5% to 2.25%. it has fallen by half. a record low almost. yes, it is catalan day. there could be on point from a table on the streets of barcelona pressuring prime minister rajoy. the regional president is committed to hold this vote on november 9. mario rajoy says there is no way it will go ahead because the constitutional court will stop catalonia voting on independence. but just keep an eye on this chart in the next week, especially if scotland votes yes. our last test was telling us give real get -- to

impetus to those seeking independence for catalonia. >> it bounce a little bit. >> it might downs more. it is a -- it might bounce more. it makes you think. it has bounced more than those other countries. if we get a yes vote from scotland, it is a chart worth watching. spain, justwith reflecting on that, you had voices from the ecb saying that what you have seen from the abs is not an overture. anna bolton will take over for her father. this is one of those great dynastic stories. sometimes her family owning 2% of the company. she speaks five languages. she is here in the u k.

spanish junior champion. she has run international parts of the business. oh -- she ran t bonesto. i love the voices of support and they are heavyweight layers -- players. she is one of the most highly respected bankers in the world. that is praise indeed from lloyd blackline. her experience, her judgment, her strong attachment skills will continue to define standard standanera.e her experience, her judgment are very strong.

she went to a place where they did not have any pass back and she has built a very big presence. >> she was head of the u.k. division which has returned them to earnings. at a time when the domestic market has proven so difficult for spain. they were lucky to have this thriving u.k. division. botin to holdrth the chairmanship and be the head of the dynasty. >> let her make her own bed as well. >> he ate sardines from a can for breakfast. >> yeah. we will take a short break. you are looking at a live view of the city of london. everything is set to open slightly higher this morning. we will talk about what is driving the markets this thursday when we come back.

>> welcome back. time now for a look at the foreign exchange markets. great to have you in the studios.

>> 150 would be easily achievable if the vote yes. i think the disruption to the u.k. leaves uncertainty about what happens. u.k. with a to the vote in the eu. currency specialist, how do you work out the pound when you don't know what the geography will look like because you do not know which screwed that -- which currencies: we'll have. >> the market always overshoots. you get a herd mentality. you get momentum traders in their. it will go further than you expect. that is generic for all markets. you look at the technicals and where the church lineup. -- the charts lineup. and where you track where it hasn't been in the past. >> every monday morning i come

in and everybody laughs at the data. the market was still long up until close of business. so there was some repositioning to do. something pushed cable up to 170. there were a lot of people gone for a long time. >> is it oversold? >> no. up until two weeks ago, nobody had a clue. vote?t if there is a no >> i think we see a rudy good bounce. -- a pretty good bounce. >> so what we see will all retrace. >> it doesn't really settle things. a neverendum. and say, ok, let's try again in

five years. >> he needs to make sure -- the polling showed a 6% gap. otherwise, they have been pretty tight. you talk about this neverendum. a kind of discount does that give the pound? way -- does that way on the canadian dollar? l it did weigh on the canadian dollar for some time. it took 15 years for them to settle in quebec. i am not sure that it is for the whole 15 years that people were worried about quebec all that time. i do think it will take some time, probably at least until 2017, for the eu referendum to settle the issue. a cross that will inspire us this thursday morning

where our investors can make some money. >> i think dollar-yet is still higher. -- dollar yen is still higher. the drive to get yield, the uncertainties in europe will push them into u.s. treasuries. and the changes for the government pension fund in japan will drive more money. >> where will the money go? >> i think a lot of it will go to u.s. equities and u.s. bonds. that abenomics isn't working, they will try to double down on what has worked. what has worked so far is monetary policy. >> the u.s. coming your opinion, where does the euro go to next? >> i think the euro is still heading lower. desire to stated his get it there.

without growth, europe is really soaked. >> thank you very much for joining us today. ."at will do it for "countdown we will see you again on "on the move."

>> welcome to "on the move." we are minutes away from the start of european trading. catalanp the land -- national day. could this set up a domino affect were you have a flurry of regions across europe looking for independence. markets will be watching scotland closely next week. elliott let's start with you. eve of the september 11 terrorist attack, president obama outlined america's

strategy for dealing with the islamic state. vowing to degrade and destroy them. i am watching all things scottish this week and next. the big bank and scotland saying it would be necessary to read domicile their headquarters -- redomicile their headquarters. at gas.looking the flow of gas. a limited supply to poland yesterday. yesterday they announced their profit down 40%. they have a lot of money but no certainty of any resolution in ukraine. >> the markets just opening here in europe. we are higher. up by .3%.