for the yesms and no camp in full force. three opinions held out overnight. they put the no campaign slightly ahead. >>.gov very much. i am back from hamburg. we spoke with two ceo's. we talked about the future of the airline industry, the future of the a3 80, the future of first-class. it may be shrinking. you may be relegated to business. >> this does not really apply to me. it applies to you. you are the man that travels first-class among us. european markets have just opened up. futures are higher, ftse 100 up by .3%. we are looking for a higher opening. thea stimulus and federal reserve later.

let's check with caroline hyde. >> the markets are going to be looking at china. they are going to be looking at the united states as well. the chinese effect helping a little bit of green in the markets this one. ftse up, spain getting a boost as well. the united states traded much higher. they have a bit of an influx, an appetite for risk on the back of the chinese news. equivalent toan, $81 billion, is being pumped into the five biggest lenders. they are getting each 100 billion yuan. instead of cutting the reserve ratio requirements, instead of cutting rates, this is an equivalent stimulus thomas so says goldman sachs. worry about the chinese data? spending over retail service have not been good. investment has not been good. the central bank is reacting.

i want to show you the reaction it had on commodities. copper, look at how much did move. up 1.2% and continues to trade higher, up .5%. we can also look at the oil market and the effect it had overnight. 2.5% jump on the oil market. is really getting impetus as we see china fueling up in terms of stimulus. we know the united states may be easing back on stimulus and we know that thebond-buying ends in october. what about forward-looking guidance? where we see the united states federal reserve on where they see growth, unemployment, the labor market indicators going for the next few months? certainly we get a quarter ly projection. when we see interest rates start to pick up? that is the trillion dollar question that is on everyone's lips.

that comes at 7:00 p.m. tonight. we get those particular meetings. twoant to have a look in on stocks this morning. we are focused on scotland but we have immediate wants to look out for and on the back of some numbers. down 3%.ond it looks as if it is not selling in asia. asia is weeks as credit suisse. we saw no growth for asia in richemont. what is good is the americas, but that does not seem to make up for the fact that asia is slowing down. that has unearthed investors. -- unnerved investors. watch out for the luxury investors. up .73%.s they are up point 8/10 of a

percent. in the emerging markets, particularly in russia and china. those concerns of frenzy weakness is easing for many of the analysts and they hope it has good results on the back of it. we see inditex shares up .6%. profit is down but that is largely due because of foreign currency weakness and they are managing to keep on selling those goods. daily mail unchanged. we had expected the stock to fall because they are warning once again on their software, rmf software program that will be delayed. this is a media company. seem to be stellar, a 5% over underlying basis and that is a concern about the software unit. >> a higher open across the eurozone. dax is up by .4%.

let's get some insight with the head of investment at cross pitch capital -- cross bridge capital. good morning. i want to start with china. the people's bank of china inject $81 billion of liquidity into china's largest banks but do not tell anybody. markets are happy. my question to you, should not we be concerned that china's economy is slowing down that the chinese authorities are starting to loosen the stimulus button? >> these numbers are particularly of the market expecting. they have not done that. it is like a proxy for a cut. seven point 5% growth is something china has pledged they will achieve. it is a preemptive measure to achieve that. yes, there might be slowdown in china. if we look at the larger affect,

how things are going and the fed is going to do, let us not is linkedt thechina to the eurozone as well. if we are thinking about hawkish, it should be put in the context. 7.5 percent growth is something they want to stick to and they do not want to have dislocated property markets. they want to see the capital to fund. in a larger context, it may create a bubble, it may not. in the short term, it is a welcome move. let's talk about the -- >> let's talk about the federal reserve. one line,ked about quantitative easing ends. what will we do? >> we have spent considerable time talking about the phrase. i think that janet yellen's testimony indicated that even though it is far quicker and

better, it narrows down to two objectives of the fed policy. it could rise sooner and faster. i think they will keep the phrase but they will condition with his paraphrasing, saying that things could get better and things will rise quicker. be a hawkish sign but not a strong intent. it is to say that we are changing course and this is our. >> we will talk about what that means for the market after the break. manish singh stays with us. here is a stock that is lower. richemont takes a hit. it is the worst start to the year since the global recession. sales missed expectations but look at the asia-pacific region. no growth at all. the dollar-sterling up .1%. that is down from the july highs. we are live in and a baroque to talk about the scottish independence vote takes place tomorrow. if you want to talk markets, you

know where i am. ♪

>> this is "on the move." we stream on everything, your phone, apple tv, amazon fire tv. let's talk about scotland because it is probably the biggest story this week. scotland votes on their future

tomorrow. the three most recent polls show the gap between the two campaigns tightening. let's go to edinburgh were anna edwards is following the storage he. give me the latest updates. a good-spirited debate or are things getting ugly? >> this has been a good-spirited debate by all sides. things have gotten more tense in the last couple of days. admin will band, the later of bandlabor party -- ed milli was out in a shopping mall, and i would not say they turned violent, but there were some tensions, a little bit of jostling. he had to seek refuge in a hairdressers and make a quick exit. speaking, things have been fairly, on the campaign trail. let's get to the latest polls. there were three overnight. they all put the no campaign

ahead, not by much. i 4% its points. 52% no, 48% yes. he now says that the no campaign is two percentage points ahead. very tight on this last campaign of -- day of campaigning. he has the latest of international figures and decides he wants to come down on the no side. he is worried about currency and about what would happen to the scottish economy if a yes vote came about and long, protracted negotiations had to take place. >> everyone is talking about the currency. another big debate throughout the last couple of months has been over oil reserves. how much north is left in the north sea -- how much oil is left in the north sea? someone has a particular view on that debate. >> he built the would group up

into an international oil and gas services business. he released a report earlier this year which gave a ranged forecast for where he thought reserves would be and was angry that the snp had picked up on the upper end of his range and had gone with that in his campaigning materials. he was reluctant, but found it necessary to step back into the limelight and express his views about the state of the reserves. i caught up with him yesterday and asked him for an update on the reserves in the north sea. not goteason i have involved is that there have been a lot of comments, frankly, that have based on one side or the other expressing a view. i guess that in two or three stories in the last couple of weeks, which i have taken strong exception to come which is why i came out again last week which is based on almost fantasy in terms of a potential area in the

north sea that might produce reserves. you might as well say scotland is rich with coal. we are, but we cannot exploit it because it is not viable. there are comments coming from that side. what i wanted to say is i am not involved in either side. no political affiliation at all. what i want is the scottish public to make a decision based on something like reality. we cannot vote for an independent scotland-based on things we hope or might happen in 30 years time because the next generation will be left to sort it out and that is not fair to them. >> he stresses the maturity of the north sea oilfields. the campaign would point to what they call underinvestment by the u.k. government and a lack of incentive to invest in north sea oil. we will talk about these more as we go through the program. ofs is one scottish version something we spend every day, a

10 pound no. i can use it. i can take it south of hadrian's wall. will this remain the case if there is a vote of independence? commerceish chamber of that while they are trying to the main impartial, questions around the pound are key to what it means for scottish business. >> looking forward to all of the news coming out of scotland in the next 48 hours. let's get inside for what it means for your money in the market. manish singh is still with us. the scotland question. i have been putting this question to a lot of people. independent of the vote we get a change in u.k. assets? >> not really. i would say that what it means, if they go independent, they are going to diversify themselves in scotland if they do it. theeduces the influence of

united kingdom as a whole in terms of higher debt, higher expenditures for both side of the economy. i don't think it changes the fundamentally. i am bullish on the u.k. economy. to extend to managers on both side that have a client in england and 10% there, it changes for them. it is a worst-case scenario for scotland. it calls into question about where you want to incorporate your business, thinking they might as for another referendum but they said they would not ask for another one in a lifetime but how many trust the politicians saying that? >> the fundamental question for the market over the last several weeks is, they vote yes. what does it mean for guilt? >> i think they are going to rise. you might see a small number of selloffs. i would say that interest rates are rising as well. if the gdp ratio increases, which it will given that if scotland does not take part in

the debt that the u.k. holds, will have some impact. i would not be alarmed about it. time, you will read them. are you going to pay much attention to them or are you going to wait for the outcome of the vote? >> outcome of the vote. i think the case is almost settle that you are not seeing a rate increase this year. not because of overhang what of what is happening. scotland, and the data has not been as positive as people thought. if they pushed him next quarter, i would look to see the vote. >> i'm going to get stock specific. stay with me. inditex has been profit estimates and the company boosted online sales. caroline hyde has been pouring over the numbers. top line? >> top line is it is a beach. that is why we saw the shares opened higher at the start of trading. it does seem to be managing to

thatt the currency issues it can control its operating cost. sales up 5%. rough it be analyst estimates. there were down from the previous year but not as bad as they had been thought. heardason profitability is because the reason you are theging home money from places it traded in, because the euro strengthened the first half of the year, there were getting less bang for the euro. profit was down on currency abroad but they managed to impress with the fact that they control costs. the margin is currently 57.6% of sales. this is a company that continues to six band -- expand a phenomenal amount. they already have 6800 stores. the plan is for another 500. they say they are on track for that. they are increasing in terms of their online presses.

they are now in 20 markets online. we are seeing the light of h&m having to invest big when it comes online. inditex, biggest retailer in britain, continues to win out, continues to boost shares even though they are big in china and russia. what are we talking about in russia at the moment? political instability? in china? concerns about the economy. they are having to stimulate, $81 billion to stimulate that economy. how is his company still managing to expand and improve? it has such an amount of growth in those sorts of countries. it really is very impressive. for the outlook, it is going to get better because the euro is at last weakening. mario draghi is relieved and retailers will be relieved as well, particularly when they have an international footprint such as zara. >> stock up by .2%. let's get a quick reaction from

manish singh. you hold inditex. you like what you're hearing? >> i like very much what i am hearing. they have 40% coming from emerging markets and they are expanding and setting up new stores as well. what i like about inditex is that they are the price point. it is higher than i have seen him and that makes a lot of difference. >> we will talk you later on in the morning about alibaba. up next on "on the move," check out smiths group shares. down by 4.7%. we will talk to the man at the top, philip bowman. ♪

>> will come back to "on the move." smiths group earnings came in lower than estimates, and down about 5%. the man at the top, philip bowman, chief executive. revenue down 5%. are you disappointed expecting this? >> the revenue of constant currency was flat. it was not a great performance, but two of our businesses are pressured by lack of government spending. that has been a challenge for us. like a lot of other u.k.-based multinationals, we have an earning around 4% of our earning in sterling. the impact of strength of sterling and its subsequent decline made a significant difference.

>> 45% of revenue in dollars last year. do you like the chart of sterling belasco of months? does that help the bottom line or does this work itself out? >> we have been through a period the past three or four years where exchange rates of the major currencies have been stable, and the extent of the swing wester was significant for it what has happened over the drivenuple of years was by the scottish referendum was helpful but it needs to be sustained to give us a benefit. >> talk about your company. 100 years on the london stock exchange. it started out making wallets and clocks. when you came in 2007, it was a hugely diversified conglomerate. everyone thought you might break it up. it has not happened. is it going to happen? >> immediately after i came, between the time i accepted the role and turned up, we had the collapse of northern iraq, the

e of lehman brothers, the financial crisis and everything slow down. one of the impacts was quantitative easing and mar pension a major issue and we have legacy litigation in the u.s. in terms of us pessimists. -- in terms of this best this -- asbestos. if you look at the overall profitability compared with five years ago, we are significantly ahead. better margins, better return on capital. there is no doubt whereas 10 years ago, a heavy dependence on government for your revenues was a great place to be. the last five years, it is anywhere but where you would want to be. >> let's talk about the defense side of the busimness. you have seen heightened jim: oh -- seen heightened geopolitical risk. after a difficult time on the

defense side of the business, we are beginning to see signs of stability reemerge. i would not say it is a growth business, but i would not say it is going down as much as before. in terms of the detection business, which provides security equipment to airports, ports, and borders, the opportunities are there but government funding -- it is the government that generally buys this equipment -- remains constrained. >> used to be the chief executive of scottish power. a scotland question -- what does it mean for your business? itfor our business directly, has not a great degree of relevance because we have relatively little exposure in terms of people or revenue in scotland. i think though it is a much bigger issue because whether the yes vote or the no vote prevails, the reality is we will have a time of significant uncertainty and that tends to be bad for business. from that perspective, there is a challenge. i am an australian.

i come from a federal system where we have both states and federal government and they work together side-by-side really well. my message would really be, that is a pretty good plan. it works in canada. it works in australia. >> phillipp lahm and ♪

>> welcome back to "on the move errico -- "on the move." >> dax up i .5%. a busy day. england, the federal reserve decides later and the stimulus factoring into a higher market area -- higher market. >> even though the rest of the market is green i'm going with the ache is losers. there were notable moves on the stoxx 600 this morning. down eight .5%.

you know the one. hasn't in media and interesting insurance product called rmf one. it has been delayed again. this is why the stock is being smacked this morning. they said they will take 5 million pounds of moorcroft for rmf one. this is about measuring your risk. ,f you are a financial company they are not pleasing investors. ig group. you know they're like. is the beginning of the summer months, the may and june. we saw sales down 9%. why? no one was trading. very quiet. close tovolatility

historic lows. they lost 10% of active clients in australia and 8% in the united kingdom. fear, thesecottish referendum worries will help ig group in the second quarter. meanwhile, ridgemont -- richemont down 3.4%. the luxury sector because they have no growth in asia. clearly concerned about richmont coming through. very well but not enough to upset sales. these are five-month numbers. an odd. as they have their annual general meeting. the three big movers. the equity market is pushing higher. the three headlines. the grapple over scotland's

future in the u.k. enters its final day. minister makes his final appeal today in an effort to claim a victory in the last 24 hours of the two year campaign. roseean trop -- crop sales for the 12th consecutive month for the longest growth stretch on record. other things help boost sales. is finally recovering from last year's two decade blow -- low. and --ng to a over government official, they will funny -- funnel the money into the five against banks area and hasn't been announced.

talking to caroline now, airbus fourly delivered its first yesterday but there hasn't been a single new order for the double-decker jet this year. we will talk with the ceo himself. that the demand, though it was soft, that they are staying with demand. have anection, they do order for 20 planes to a leasing agent. insisted they will get around this corner and in terms of the a350, if you want one the waiting list is long. >> we have a northern group that allows us to maintain a production rate. it is pretty good. we have 750 aircraft. , is iflem with the a350

you want to order one i can get you a slot in 2021 at best. the plane they delivered to qatar airways has only eight seats up front in first-class, 40 is this class seats and 400 and coach. qatar insists he doesn't want an arms race on luxury. >> we don't have flashy stuff, very clean. nice colors. maximum comfort. then you can get in any other aero plane. >> it is exciting here because we have essentially two fromally different bets golden state carriers. you have emirates and qatar

thinking luxury may not pay in the long run. hamburg, you are in any other talk about their struggles. from have almost taunting qatar, he doesn't think that lou funds a as a way forward. has a waythanse forward. job to do, difficult but friends disagree. carriers ishat gulf the cause of the pressure that lufthanse has. >> what is the cause? >> i would not like to get into politics, but i know the causes and i feel sorry for him. i'm sure he envies me very much the cause we don't have to take the crap from the unions. qatart is the ceo of

talking about the other's challenges. some challenges for the german airline company. thought he was really diplomatic until he got to the end. he speaks his mind. >> still with us for a take on the top stories, manish singh. i know you're going to the alibaba roadshow. >> i am convinced that their company is a buy. it is just about price valuation. more color in terms of how their earnings are lurking -- looking. is 80% of mobile company's business in china, it is the market player. i like the stock thomas it is about valuation and how the

stock will react. before att happened the top. how the earnings will evolve. how it mightfore be at the top of the range, is that just pr talk? >> given that they have raised it only the day before, a must-have initial interest. it is a big some. ipobillion come a a largest ever. if you look at the revenue they are driving from, less ebay, less paypal combined for china, i don't think they have to sell the story but they do have to sell the valuation. alibaba,osition on this rights in saying it could

be north of $20 billion. how do you change on that position as an investor? is $160arket cap itself billion. you'll still have to rebalance. rebalancing is not ruled out very given that there is talk of hawkish intent, they can profit in the tech center and you will see the stock slide. >> are you a buyer? not sure ofes but the ipo or secondary market area -- market. we are 39 minutes into trade. higher .5% bigng events today, the federal reserve likely to dominate the headlines. whato you communicate

happens next when quantitative easing is set to happen.

>> welcome back to on the move, you know what time it is. we're going to talk about alibaba because the roadshow hits london today. they are about to make ipo history. this is the last day of alibaba's roadshow in the last ,pportunity for the leadership ceo, cfo and deputy chairman to pitch their story to investors. that meeting begins in a few hours but in the meantime we will speak with martin mcnulty. he has been working in marketing for 15 years specifically looking at e-commerce. what is the significance of this ipo beyond the fact that it may turn out to be the biggest ever? the biggest.ing

it is incredibly significance because we haven't eastern is this the marketed to the west. we've never seen anything like this. >> what does this mean for amazon? >> it means a lot of sleepless nights for amazon. with agot a business great website and colossal range but they compete aggressively on price and you can see that in the profits of amazon. million loss in the last quarter. alibaba made $2 billion in the last quarter. colossal warchest. >> plus the ipo. >> exactly, they can undermine one of the pillars of amazon. alibaba can take the legs out. >> investors know about alibaba,

does the retail community? it onces? i bumped into online but it is not a household name. >> i don't think many people do but the significance of launching in new york is part of the marketing side. five years ago there may have been genuine nervousness, these days we are more comfortable. there will be a lot of marketing but they will rapidly become comfortable. >> it does rub off? as the result of an ipo that targets the financial community -- >> there will be a lot of hype about this deal. i think alibaba can do interesting things with reising and trotta x. -- pricing and products. they can go after corporate

lines and aggressively discount. ao is to say they can't do $50 ps4? >> what about comparisons to facebook? some people will have. pre-ipo shares. is it a fair concern and comparison. peoplen understand why make it but i don't think it is a fair comparison. facebook at the time of their launch hadn't figured out. biggestis the world's e-commerce company, and 80% market share in china. it is profitable. i wouldn't put the two in the same league. >> what does it mean for other companies? >> there are two things, close

to home. now is a good time to buy shares in royal mail. advent or second coming of e-commerce. >> it is competition against a business we never saw -- thought we would see competition against. alibaba have access to small the mystic reducers in china which haven't seen the light of day in the west. it could be the daunting for those companies. >> thank you for your time. d talking toforward3 us. i had of the last investor conference before alibaba prices and shares get allocated. >> a huge ipo. in 15 minutes time we will move on to "the pulse." the timing of this is

interesting with the juxtaposition with the vote in scotland. hasn't changed much but some members of the market policy committee down the road and the bank of england will factor into their thinking. nevertheless, they would now and so how much attention to we need to pay? part of the details we will get today. further members voting for a rate hike? we will show you the reaction and the numbers. the scottish story is never far from our minds certainly. we will talk to the elite business community. speaking to sir tom hunter one of scotland's best known businessman. he will have a clear view on the risks and rewards. the second him in

hour. link overlk about the the next couple of days. >> sounds like a great show. coming up in "on the move," we will talk whiskey. the referendum could jeopardize the nation's ability to sell their roles of its liquid. to $1.63 is back during on the last three months, look at this decline. down 4% over the last three months. we were close to 1.17. on the other side, bank of england minutes, unemployment data dropping in 40 minutes time.

larger you are 5% of a critical entity, your voice isn't heard. and the are real risks

reality is extra cost with a new country and there is no way there will be a currency union. >> economically the uncertainty for scotland is overwhelmingly on the negative side. that's what we will talk about scotland, when it comes to scotland you can't get more scottish than scotch. --skey is the background backbone of the food and drinks economy. how will it fail if they go independent? >> this old farmhouse doesn't give away much but the hind the stone walls, liquid gold is bubbling. this is the whiskey distillery, the oldest operating in scotland. it is a small part of their whiskey empire. you get a sense of scale when

you look around the storage site. of 56 on this site so that makes about 1.2 5 million barrels here. that is a lot of whiskey. business is a patient's game. to be called scotch, it must be aged for three years here in scotland. distillers, developing flavors is about the barrel. once these have been seasoned by american whiskey they are shipped over intact to scotland where we reuse them for scotch whiskey. >> the value of scotch exports has doubled in the last decade. the spirit makes up 85% of scotland's food entering export. it is a massive industry and it is growing.

in case you wonder why some scotch costs the earth, there is a reason. >> we expect to lose 2%. as it gets older there is less left and we call that the angels share. bottle and thehe cost will go up. >> there is also the addition of tax you can thank the british government for that one. but the referendum has whiskey makers rattled. if scotland goes alone, they are out of the eu and free trade agreements. they might also lose the british pound. the industry is used to planning ahead. >> it is a long-term investment. we are laying down whiskey today which may not be enjoyed for a generation or longer. >> that is the whiskey covered,

let's look at the markets ahead of the massive vote. up by .1%. one pound now buys you 1.63 pence. higher than 5% from what we hit two months ago. to come in atet 6.3%, that is a drop. we also get bank of england minutes. where will rates go? does it even matter? things in the last two weeks have changed a lot. let's say you radically that scotland do vote yes. can you imagine the bank of england and mark carney hiking rates anytime soon? that is it for "on the move." follow me on twitter. ," is next. pulse

>> the final push. we speak to scotland's business elite as the polls give the a slight edge one day before the vote. waiting for a "considerable time." will the fed cut bad language from its statement tonight to single a rate hike in the united states. and stimulus, china injects $81 billion into the nation possibly get banks. biggest banks. good morning, everybody.