>> the final push. we speak to scotland's business elite as the polls give the a slight edge one day before the vote. waiting for a "considerable time." will the fed cut bad language from its statement tonight to single a rate hike in the united states. and stimulus, china injects $81 billion into the nation possibly get banks. biggest banks. good morning, everybody. you are watching "the pulse."

we are live from bloomberg's european headquarters here in london. hit the road, jack. alibaba's tour continues as jack ipo history.o make airbus delivered its first qatar. -- a-380 to but first, our top story, the battle over scotland anders its final day of campaigning. the three most recent polls show the gap between the two campaigns heightening to four percentage points as they make the final push to win over voters. let's go to the scottish capital now where anna edwards is following the story. anna, the latest. >> thank very much, guy. those polls you mentioned, we got three polls overnight. they all show the same overall level of support.

52% for the no campaign. for ea percent for the yes campaign. that is the no's coming out ahead. the man whod from runs the poll of polls. he has been running this poll, taking a count of all the latest polling information. he now puts the gap at just two percentage points. the no's still just have the lead in his view. we have been taking soundings from scottish businesses of all kinds. we have spoken to the person who built an international oil and gas services business. he has been very vocal on the subject of reserve. he wanted to downplay those reports of the possibility of there being more reserves in the north sea. he has been emphasizing the maternity of north sea reserves and decreasing tax revenues those will provide. the chamber of commerce have

toed to rating impartial -- remain impartial throughout this conversation about independence. they stress that they will have to try and get back to some kind of business as normal, whatever the result they wake up to on friday. >> apart from being a little bit foggy, what is the atmosphere like? >> the atmosphere is a little bit amp, shall we say. atmosphere, all the campaigning has been up until now fairly friendly. we did see some low level not even of jostling, violence, coming through yesterday. this is the front page of the daily mirror. this is admin the band, the leader of the opposition labor party. it was him taking the better together campaign on tour in scotland. he was met with a welcome reception, but some of the yes

campaigns turned up and there was some tension in a shopping center. i thought you might like this one. the scottish sun, britain's got talent. no,tair darling leading the the better together campaign on this side. the ecks factor, the name given to alex salmond, the first minister for scotland. they are pitting these two together in a talent contest. i should point out that through the mist, edinburgh castle on the hills behind me, parts of the castle date back to 1130. the english and the scots have been fighting over it many times since then. a reminder of the historic decision that the scots are about to make tomorrow. back to you. >> thank you very much indeed. we will be back with anna very shortly. we will be live with scotland's first ever billionaire, tom hunter.

we will also be speaking to the chairman of pam's and. are hugees and, they in terms of fixing your shoes, cutting your keys. they have businesses up and down scotland. some big business leaders coming up here on "the pulse." a big day for central banks as well. china injecting $81 billion. it is decision day at the federal reserve. the bank of england releases its latest minutes. lots to talk about. stimulus, china come a by stealth. >> it is bizarre in some sense. you don't really want to tell anyone about it so you don't put it in an official statement. we are learning they have done this. to balance this out somewhat, is it just a kind of everyday easing mechanism? if so, it is pretty big.

i think you compare and contrast that with the federal reserve of sussing over this one line in the statement and you have a chinese central bank doing these huge liquidity operations. >> maybe that is what the ecb should do. just do what it needs to do and not tell anyone. that would keep everybody happy because the germans wouldn't have to worry. let's talk about the bank of england and the fed as well. the timing of the minutes of a is interesting. the last meeting happened before we started getting excited about what was happening in scotland and the implications of that for the remainder of the u.k. and whether or not you would see a tightening. i kind of have slightly mixed feelings about what we are going to learn. >> the last few weeks, the market has suddenly woken up. ons meeting took place september 4. the meeting matters if they vote

no. it doesn't matter much if they vote yes. theminutes matter but scottish vote this week trumps everything. it doesn't matter what is in these minutes. when you look at what garner carney has been saying, he has been very diplomatic on the currency union issue. he has given his views to a certain extent. where he hasn't given his view is whether -- what a scotland yes means for monetary policy. >> it won't be a considerable time before we have the opportunity -- we will do it a little bit later. two words getting everybody excited. thank you very much indeed. we will bring you those minutes later. now to our top corporate story. alibaba arriving in london today ahead of its ipo. yorks start trading in new friday. it could be the world's biggest ipo ever. ryan chilcote is live outside

the roadshow. over to you. lastis is alibaba's opportunity, this meeting that is going to begin in a few hours, to pitch their story to investors. the investors that come to this meeting would have probably already put in their orders for alibaba shares before the meeting begins, because the order books are closing. the reality is that many investors are unlikely to get allocated shares given the fact that this is a u.s. listing. most of the shares will probably go to u.s. investors or asian investors because this company does hail from asia. this is an opportunity for alibaba to encourage investors to buy the shares once they start trading. that is important because they want to make sure that the shares have a very good first day performance and people at this meeting in london can help

them do that. ma, assuming he is going to be here, the face of the roadshow once again. , whatms of his priorities are the priorities here for him? is it getting the right pricing, convincing investors they need to invest? what is his priority? >> first off, we don't know for sure that he is going to be here. his name is not on the invitation. and deputyo chairman's names are. like you said, he has been the face of this ipo process throughout the roadshow. he was in hong kong, all the meetings in the united states, and i noticed an awful lot of security guards showing up. maybe he will be here as well. his big issue is to avoid a facebook-like debut.

that is something that their team has to make sure doesn't happen on friday. it is one of the reasons why yse over nasdaq.\ that is one of the reasons he has been careful about pricing. he will be more careful now that he has up to the anti-. -- upped the ante. the maximum is now the minimum of the new price range. that makes this meeting all the more important to encourage investors to jump in even after , to tell ali baba's story, talk about how alibaba has opportunities to strike out against amazon as they move out of china. >> ryan, thank you very much indeed. if you see him, let us know straight away. a lot of people are going to be intrigued. let's go from alibaba to airbus.

it is three months late but the company has delivered its first nicholsa-380's hans spoke to the ceo of both companies. is a bitof airbus, it late, what did he have to say? >> he basically got cover. he said these planes were late because we made more specifications. on the broader question, how is it selling, not really any new orders this year. they have the one that they signed earlier this year but demand hasn't been hot. they say they have the capacity to do 30 planes a year. on the a-350, you have to wait a long time if you want one. >> we have an order book which allows us to maintain the production rate close to 30 aircraft in the coming years. it is pretty good.

we have 750 in the backlog. if you want to order one, i can starting iner you a 21 at best. >> the interesting thing about the plane yesterday, only eight seats in first class, 40 some in business and 461 in economy. we know where we sit. >> at the front, always. i heard some stories yesterday about how long it takes to line up on the runway. you don't think about that but apparently it is a big deal. let's talk about love funds a -- lufthansa. the french are getting hot under the collar. what is the story? >> they avoided a strike earlier this week. they somehow convinced the

pilots not to strike in frankfurt. that was a victory. long-term, this is a company with challenges. they are competing with gulf carriers. whatked the ceo of qatar he thought there challenges were. his response, pretty interesting. he has a difficult job to do, but also friends always disagree. i disagree that gulf carriers are the cause of the pressure that lufthansa has. >> what is the cause? >> i would not like to get into politics, but i know what the causes are and i feel sorry for him. i am sure he envies me very much. we don't have to take the crap of the union. >> that is one way to put it.

there are two sides to that story. we will be reaching out to lufthansa as well to get their view of that. i don't know if that is clear sympathy, but there is a tension between the gulf carriers and lufthansa. is now aso, qatar member of one world, a competing airline alliance. another reason may be for that. thank you very much indeed. hans nichols, our international correspondent joining us from berlin. coming up, tension in scotland. solo, country opts to go the shakeup will have an impact on the status quo. we are going to talk about that. is there a proper place to protect interest? we will talk about that after the break. ♪

>> good morning. welcome back. less than 24 hours to go before the big vote in scotland. there are doubts about the future of the pension system. pensioners are getting nervous. let's talk about this some more. let's get back to edinburgh. anna edwards. >> thanks very much. brown joined now by gavin , spokesperson for the scottish conservatives.

thank you for coming to talk to us today. let's talk about the campaign being launched by the no campaign, reinvigorated by the no campaign. polls show that they guess camp was gaining ground -- the yes camp was gaining ground. is this too little too late? >> we have been fighting hard for years to make sure we got our message across. there is no doubt that the polls that came across certainly got people more nervous. we had pretty good numbers before but almost overnight, the number of people out helping doubled. there are people out there who see this very seriously and are fighting to save the union. >> how are you countering people who attempt to use this as a protest vote against your government? >> this is effectively a vote for life. we don't get a second chance.

you can't turn the clock back if you don't like what happens. we are asking people to think seriously about the long-term consequences. it is not about one government or one policy. it is what you believe is best for scotland, for the future. we believe that scotland does very well and will do even better. that is why we are campaigning for a no vote. >> the yes campaign has captured the imagination of some young people who maybe weren't involved in politics before and are getting more interested in politics. how do you counter that kind of message with the message you are trying to put across? >> certainly, most of the schools have voted in favor of preserving the union. they used to be one of the boundaries. to them, the idea of isolating yourself is just what they are

used to. they have friends around the world on facebook and everything else. the idea of creating a barrier is anathema to them. young people have been inspired on both sides. of 16 and 17-year-olds in particular is on the no side overall. >> what about the commitments that the no campaign has made to devolve further powers to the scottish parliament if a no vote is the outcome? how certain can you be that those pledges made by the leaders of your party and the liberal democrats and labour party, how certain are you they will get through westminster? can three men at the top of these parties pledge what will happen in the u.k. parliament? >> there is no doubt that these powers will happen. if you look at history, all three parties have a track

record of delivering devolution for scotland. 70's.oes back to the since 1999, you had a labor government deliver the scottish parliament with enormous powers for spending and making laws, not many financial powers. in 2012, scotland got delivered by conservative and liberal democrat coalition government delivering extra powers and crucially, financial powers. tax which will become the land and building transaction tax. all of those major parties in recent times have a proven track record of delivering additional powers and they are determined to do so again. >> there are some english mp's who have been voicing concern about this commitment to maintain the formula of funding, that scotland gets per capita more money in government

spending than other parts of the u.k. how can you be sure that support of that will go through parliament? mp's,n you have 650 or so there will be some different opinions. the leaders of the major political parties have a proven track record of delivering on commitments of devolution. i am certain they will do so again. >> thank you so much for joining us, gavin brown. we are just off princes street. i hear some bagpipes starting up in the background. we will see if we can get some music for you later on in the program. >> thank you very much indeed. a few scots wandering around in kilts as well. we are back in a couple of minutes. ♪

>> welcome back. we are live on bloomberg tv. we are on the radio, streaming on your tablet, on your phone and on bloomberg.com. we are all over the markets as well. jonathan ferro is. >> busy today, so much going on. this is what a little bit of happy talk brings you. the chinese juice, a little stimulus and the people's bank of china, $81 billion of

liquidity going into china's biggest banks. this is what you get, a nice little rally across the eurozone. ftseax up by 0.25%, the doing nothing. let's talk about china. china easing. you could get happy about that. the bottom line is, authorities are worried about a slowdown. regional stocks down by 4% right now. they come out with sales this morning. the estimate was a growth of 6%. the regional breakdown that really builds in the concern. the asia-pacific region delivers this much, 0%. big concern. elsewhere, you are looking at sterling. 1.6322, a drop-off over the last three months. some pretty big pieces of data. 1.632 seven, about 0.3%. bank of england minutes, unemployment data. >> can't wait. still to come, why fly first

when you can go business? we are going to bring you more of our exclusive conversation. that is coming up here on "the pulse." ♪

>> welcome back. breaking news from the bank of england. the vote at the mpc to maintain the benchmark rate at 0.5%. policyority saying the would remain supportive even after a rate rise. insufficient price pressures to justify a rate rise. we have seen inflation data considered to we can within the u.k.

a gradual path is something the governor has made clear that he would like to see. saying that we should look through the week cpi data that we have seen. wage growth could pick up quickly and they would like to tighten soon to keep rate hikes gradual. don't think a significant evolution from where we were previously. array, 9-0.chased we also had employment data as well. not a great deal of reaction on cable. 1.62323.ill trading at not a significant move. let's put this into context. talk about where we are with the banks, with scottish referendum and where we go from here. let's talk to oliver harvey. he is an fx strategist at

deutsche bank. ofterms of the evolution where that takes us today, nothing significantly changed. >> it doesn't sound like much has changed. governor carney said he didn't really push back against market pricing. it doesn't seem there is much new in the minutes today. nonetheless, if it did hike in spring next year, that would be the first low yielding central-bank to hike. that would be broadly supportive of the pound against things like the euro. the focus at the moment is going to be on scotland and today's minutes will have to take account of those. >> are they almost irrelevant in some way? >> they are not irrelevant. on fridaya yes vote morning, they will be irrelevant in the short-term for sterling. marketet a no vote, the will look back again at how the

bank of england is developing, particularly the floating voters in the mpc. the market will be very focused on what they are saying about slack in the labor market. very focused on what they believe the path of inflation to be. we will go back to the bank of england on friday. >> for people watching the program who are running businesses, volatility in the currency they have to use is something that concerns them. give us a sense of the setup we have going into scotland. how much of a no vote is priced in? talk about the symmetry of the risk. >> the market is going back to more or less 90% pricing a no vote. i think the risk reward is still reasonably in favor of hedging for a yes vote.

it is clear that the polls that have come out over the last 24 hours do suggest there will be a no vote. on the day itself, lots of factors could make it very unpredictable. ,f a new demographic is voting we are going to have a very high turnout, expected 80% or more, 97% is the record of eligible people to vote on the register. this could make the result quite unpredictable if we have this very narrow lead. >> alex salmond this morning making it clear that he feels consolidation will be granted when it comes to the pound. that is not the message we get from the bank of england, from westminster. there is a lot of apocalyptic language floating around surrounding this scottish vote. you guys have talked about it as well. you are referring to it as being similar to a statement made with the gold standard.

mistakes made going into the depression. lessons learned clearly by ben bernanke. are we overstating it from a market point of view? the moves could be big but short-lived. i am trying to get my arms around the magnitude of this. >> there are two things, what it means for scotland and what it means for the rest of the u.k. i don't think it is that far-fetched to make comparisons with the gold standard for scotland. there are lots of ways in which independence would make scotland for. on the currency side, it seems there are no good options to have a new currency. on the fiscal side, you are looking at austerity in scotland in order to gain credibility. >> those are scottish points. >> in terms of the rest of the u.k., it does mean a big deal. while the rest of the u.k. is

scotland's largest trading , scotland is the u.k.'s second-largest trading partner. scotland is also one of the most competitive parts of the united kingdom. the idea that it wouldn't be bearish on the pound, for the u.k. markets if scotland left, is wrong. >> what i am curious about is the ripple effect by on that. the gold standard and what happened, the great depression clearly had ripple effects, is it going to be felt -- is this a local issue or a global issue? to spain andct catalonia, there is a big difference there. the spanish constitution has declared a referendum in, lumia catalonia unconstitutional. probably the affect in the short term --

>> so they don't need to price this into other assets beyond the u.k.? >> i think it will be bullish on the dollar. people will be buying dollars but i don't think it has systemic impact on europe. ifon the subject of the fed, you get a removal of the language talking about a considerable time, what is the effect on the dollar? is a slighthere expectation that the tone of , which iconference think will be more important than the actual language itself, will be more hawkish. what is more important is you are seeing capital flows. that is supporting the dollar recently. outflows to japan, to europe. we remain pretty bullish on the dollar. i think that will be on the margin. irrespective of the exact tone of tonight. >> thank you very much. solomon harvey joining us from deutsche bank.

coming up, the fork in the road for scotland's tech sector. we are going to take you back to edinburgh with a look at the potential path. ♪

>> a currency union is incompatible.

>> it will be difficult for the u.k. economy. certainly adjustments will be made. , iit is a lot of plumbing would say, that needs to be done. the worry is that it increases cost. scottish consumers might be disadvantaged by an overall increase cost of doing business in scotland. larger you are 5% of a political entity, your voice isn't heard. >> these are real risks. the reality is there are extra costs of a new country. >> economically, the uncertainty for scotland is overwhelmingly on the negative side. >> if we talk about scotland, i will scream. >> don't scream. leaders in business and policy speaking about -- speaking to bloomberg about scottish referendum. we will carry on talking about it.

back to edinburgh. anna edwards joins us now. >> thanks, guy. please don't scream. let's bring in another voice on this subject. thes welcome david who is chairman of prism technologies and joins us now in this slightly misty edinburgh. thank you for joining us. you have spoken out in favor of independence. you are backing the yes campaign. how can somebody who runs a business vote for something that will introduce more uncertainty, more instability into your business environment? >> you need to accept the fact that life is all about uncertainty and instability. any business that doesn't embrace the uncertainty, change the opportunity, won't have an opportunity. business is all about seizing

opportunity, going after the changes that create the ability to sell product. the advantages that would come from independence? >> i think there are several things. first of all, we are talking about a different business tax regime putting in place things like r&d incentives, targeting injuries -- industries the digital media, a particularly robust injury. from my own company's perspective, i may get an opportunity because scotland will be building out infrastructure as we build into renewables, etc. that will create an opportunity for us. that is really the icing, not the real issue.

>> you export. that brings me nicely onto the subject of the currency. how do you get around the fact that this debate, you don't know what currency you are going to be using in 18 months time? >> the first point i would make sellst today, prismtech to companies in the u.s., canada, europe, brazil, wherever. we price in u.s. dollars, we price in euro. our cost base is in dollars, euros, pounds. anybody that is selling outside scotland can easily avoid any issues to do with currency whatsoever by pricing in the currency of the buying customer. it is somewhat of a nonissue in that respect. if you look at what is underpinning the whole currency question, does it make sense for the u.k. and scotland to share the pound or for scotland to

have a pound to sterling? what you have to look at is the consequence in the u.k. if scotland is not part of the union. very damaging for the u.k. >> we have heard about that this morning from an economist talking about the affect. what about the risks of the central bank and the bank of england if the u.k. government would be less on the hook for the scottish financial services industry, which had to be bailed out only a number of years ago? >> i think that is somewhat being sold by the bank's. >> we could see another financial services industry build up. >> you could. you also need to bear in mind what happens when you have the bailout. the bailout wasn't done by the countries in which the banks had

their head office ease -- offices. it was those which were impacted. ,he u.s. bailed out barclays which is not commonly understood. it is where the operations are that the bailout cost is driven by. scotland only has 10% of rbs operations, for example. cost i believe is easily covered, even if you chose to do that. these are private, limited companies. these are not government entities. being a businessman and a taxpayer, i really take exception to these big financial not bearing the pain. >> you are confident that scotland will keep the pound. thank you for joining us.

back to you. >> thank you very much indeed. we are going to stay with scotland. harris tweed is a fabric used by top designers and fashion houses like vivienne westwood. it is so special that it has a totish act of parliament ensure its authenticity. those who make harris tweed use rather remarkable production methods as well. they are keeping the industry alive. tom gibson reports. >> 40 years since i left school. >> on a remote island off the northwestern coast of scotland, colin is making world-famous harris tweed.

>> one of 100 odd weavers, he works on a cast-iron loom in his home on the isle of harris. if these criteria aren't matched, it can't be called harris tweed. it is part of a tradition that being saved from extinction. behind every inch of harris tweed is a person and an identity. before it reaches the weaver, the thread must be made. a process that also seems to hail from another era. >> you are looking at about 10 different stages. >> halloween mills is one of just three different mills on the island. the work is still sensory and artisan all.

>> it is very about touch and feel. >> for centuries, the islanders have made this material by hand. it is protected property against the cold. ts rich hues and soft touch are back in vogue. from tablet covers to headphones and even tweedo's. production started to suffer, damaged by the advent of mass-produced clothing. numbers fell. back in fashion, numbers are increasing. --there has been sort of a also has a chinese manufacturer, offering some security and how much tweed they can produce. the defining moment for harris tweed makers was a british act

of parliament that protects the makers from copycats. this means authenticity and quality. without it, the industry might not have survived. tom gibson, bloomberg. , that can't be a good thing. as we had to break, let me take you to paris. the secretary-general is speaking with bloomberg. you may recognize somebody he is sitting next to. francine lacqua. she has been missing. she will return very shortly. i am very much looking forward to her. can't wait. anyway, fran is in paris. bloomberg is in paris. you are looking at live pictures from that event. we will take a break. back in a couple of minutes. ♪

>> welcome back. the future of scottish wind power, among other things. our next guest says the referendum won't affect the industry a great deal. good morning. let's talk about your business. you do smaller scale turbines that 10 to go on farms.

you have raised money by crowd sourcing as well. talk to me about what life is like at that scale of the wind power industry and how different it is. >> it is different in that the , put tends to be generated into the transmission grid, it could be used down in london for instance. that is the biggest difference. our power is consumed where it is generated. >> the bulk of those go on farms and properties like that. how difficult is the installation process? abouthave probably got 600 turbines installed in the u.k. 800 globally. this is the largest percentage of where our business is. it is not that difficult. >> how hard is it to get planning? >> it is getting harder. two or three years ago, it was taking six to eight months.

now it is taking 12 to 16 months. probably more government interest or intervention and more local people expressing their opinion. we get the process through. it just takes longer. >> y crowd funding? >> crowd funding is a good way for us to be able to get community interest and as a platform from which to -- in the future we are going to have people direct investor he >> you're going to use it again? let's talk about scotland. quite windy out there. and quitequite windy a hotspot for wind generation. you said it won't make much difference to the scottish wind industry but in the end there was a little kicker. depends on the currency. it was that last bit i am curious about. are worryingit you about here. >> definitely.

we manufacture most of the turbines in scotland. we manufacture in canada. we have a factory in the u.k. but those turbines tend to be larger. manufacturer is canadian. we are dealing in sterling. there is an unknown. >> would it put you off operating in that country? it would just be another barrier to get around, another transaction cost to factor into your business, maybe making them more expensive. >> it is a hurdle. scotland itself is a great place for wind. it has strong support. >> thank you very much indeed for joining us. enduring wind power. we are going to take a break. for those listening on bloomberg radio, the first word is up next. for our viewers, a second hour of "the pulse."

we are going to continue the conversation in scotland. we are live with scotland's first-ever billionaire. we will talk to him later. ♪

>> the final push. we speak to scotland's business elite. polls give the a slight edge one day before the vote. language -- cut bad will the fed signal a rate hike for the u.s.? billion into $81 the nation's biggest bank. good morning to our viewers in europe, good evening to those in asia, and a very warm welcome to those just waking up in the u.s.

i am guy johnson, this is "the pulse." live from bloomberg's european headquarters in london. i have good news. good news for mario draghi. i expect it will not feel like that. euro area august inflation came through at -- drumroll here -- 0.4%. that exceeds the initial 0.3% estimate. you have to see the silver lining. maybe it is there. let's factor that into our thinking on what is going on here. we will show you the euro in a moment and see if we can get reaction and that. central banks in focus at the moment. bank of england has released its minutes. it did so in the last hour. it showed policymakers split for a second month, holding key rate at a record low. that, the fed,t

china. let's talk about the fact that mario draghi has a little bit of good news. jonathan ferro joins me. let's start off with the bank of england. given the proximity to the scottish though, i am minded to downplay it. >> the reaction in sterling catching on. down by .1% from where we were. sterling has not reacted. the big event this week is the scottish independence referendum. does not really matter what is going to be in this minute. a yes vote would trump everything. >> moving on. let's talk about the fed and china. >> short stop -- sure. >> the phrase is there. whether or not the fed wants it to be used in the way that

the market is using it, if it is taken out we get a rate hike in the next six months. a considerable period, those are the words we are looking for. are datae saying we dependent but offering time contingent guidance. qe ends next month. they're going have to do something about it. you remove it even if you are a dozen trying to say we are data dependent and not a loaded policy action to remove that forement, it means so much a lot of people. it is basically saying it could be a couple of months away, get ready. >> that is not what the fed wanted it to be. a if they remove it, there is press conference to qualify whatever. the federal reserve, it is getting interesting. >> the chinese are being sneaky. >> fascinating that you inject $81 billion into five of your biggest banks and do not put out an official statement.

can you imagine the federal reserve doing anything like that? >> no. things were going on and it makes you wonder what the mindset is. >> communication overload at the fed. you have the chinese, people's bank of china, 80 $1 billion injected to five thanks. we will not put out a statement. mario draghi would love to operate under those terms. >> he would love to. >> maybe they will go back to meetings in august on the beach. more fun. much indeed.u very let's return to scotland. the battle over scotland's future in the final day of campaigning. it is on everyone's minds. three most recent polls show the cap tightening to 4 or seven points -- three most recent polls show the gap tightening to 4 percentage points. in edinburgh, anna edwards is following the story. >> yes, not much in it.

the latest polls, three of them putting the no camp ahead by 4 percentage points. 52% for no. undecided,p out the who many of the campaigners will be trying to convince to come over to their sides. we've heard a couple voices on the yes side. doomsayers you have heard talking about the dire economic consequences that could result. some of them have been telling us it is more about the rest of the u.k. the current account effects of removing oil revenues. some of the voices have suggested that is where the doom would be. we spoke to conservatives on the no side. they said they are confident by the leaders of the westminster -- they said be

they are confident that the commitments by the leaders of the mr. parties could be enacted. the last day of campaigning. taking place today. conservatives and labor and all of the other parties, the scottish nationalists are hitting the road and trying to convince wavering voters of their side of things. , the international perspective on this is amazing. the world is fascinated by the story. >> absolutely. we just heard from prime in spain.ajoy he said voting on independence was not very european. he has a vested interest. the catalonian independence movement is watching carefully. parts of watching, italy are watching. international voices have been shipping in. lich,ard from robert ze formerly of the world bank, alan

greenspan, formerly of the fed. president bill clinton. all of those voices talking about how they want the u.k. to stay together. just in case any reminder was needed of the historical significance of what the scots are voting on. edinburgh castle is behind us. the words of my colleague in one "never since 1745 have so many eyes in london been cast northward to what is happening here in scotland." >> thank you very. the historical precedent. never far from anybody's mind. anna will be back shortly. she will be talking to scotland's first ever billionaire, sir thomas hunter. tom hunter joining us shortly. let's get back to our top story.

alibaba's roadshow arriving in london. shares start trading in new york friday. could be the biggest ipo ever. ryan chilcote is outside the event. , all eyes on this event. do we know if jack ma is showing up? >> we don't. there are a lot of security guards here. perhaps he will. having said that, whose name is not on the invitations. the name of the executive vice-chairman, the ceo, the cfo, and other people from the leadership of alibaba, their names are there. his name is not. it is not uncommon for the roadshow team to split up. he was in hong kong. he has been in new york. it would not be out of the ordinary if he was not here. there is a lot of security so maybe he will come. security guards promised they

will let me know when he arrives , if you believe that. this is the company's opportunity -- last opportunity -- to pitch their story. before the order books close and before they price and divvy up the shares start trading on friday. most investors i come to this meeting will have already placed orders. many of them will not get the shares they want. this is a u.s. ipo. share willhe lions go to them. or to asia, where the company hails from. it is an opportunity for the investors that show up to meet the senior management, if not jack ma. it is an opportunity for alibaba to sell their story and try to get these guys to buy shares when shares start trading on the new york stock exchange friday. yan, i am fascinated that

the security guards are going to tell you. i look forward to hearing about whether or not he is arriving. all eyes are going to be on broadgate. --ing to secure or not trying to figure out whether or not jack ma is there. the security guards are going to find out and then we're going to find out. thank you. ryan chilcote in london. waiting for john ma. >> the currency debate continues to be a sticking point of the yes campaign in scotland. will it be a dealbreaker for business? we ask scotland's first-ever billionaire. tom hunter joins "the pulse" after the break. ♪

>> good morning. welcome back. you are watching "the pulse." let's talk about the pound. it would be the subject of the next couple days. this is the action this morning. a little bit of selling. not a great deal. after the boe minutes. the real event comes tomorrow and probably friday, the referendum vote in scotland. bank were here earlier. one of their strategists telling me the market has basically priced in a no vote. 90% priced and when it comes to a no vote. the symmetry of the risks surrounding this, if you get a

yes vote, you get a very big move on the back of that. we are waiting, watching and looking at polling data. trying to figure out which way the scots are going to vote. talking of which, let me take you back to edinburgh. anna edwards is standing by with another great guest. edinburgh, a little bit of drizzle. i am pleased to say we are joined by tom hunter. he made his billions in retail. a number of startup businesses and doing a lot of philanthropic work. thank you for joining us on bloomberg. you've done your own thing through this campaign. you have not taken a side. you have decided to set out a lot of materials people can use on the internet with the website scotlandseptember18.com. why? >> when the referendum was first announced, it was very exciting

but slightly daunting. a huge question. the biggest political decision in my lifetime. i knew i could not leave it to the politicians to educate us. therefore, we decided to find some of the big brains around the world. we post them the questions, make sure they had no side in the fight. and we decided, why don't we make it available to everybody, free. scotlandseptember18.com. an initiativeas to inform your family and then you open it up. what you think are the gaps in people's knowledge about this? some people make a decision on their heart, that is fine. some people have always wanted to stay in the union or to be an independent country. others, like myself, need some facts to back up our gut feel.

big questions it comes down to for me -- currency and what extra powers we would get. >> as a businessperson, do you worry about the currency effect? yes vote,as to be a you do not know which currency you would be using in 18 month'' time. >> as a businessman, the narrow question about currency. i understand people do not make up their minds on one narrow issue. as a businessman, currency would be near the top of my list. wait did not know what it is going to be. that is uncertainty and that ups my risks. it is one other thing to worry about. >> you have voted already. by post. you will never tell anyone. >> i'm not telling anybody.

i'm not trying to convince people to vote the way i voted. i'm just trying to say here are some facts, let's make an informed decision. make up your own mind. long after david cameron, alex this fight, left our children and their children will need to deal with the consequences of how i vote tomorrow. this is huge, we better get it right. people votingk with their hearts or with their heads, not saying either one is right, what is the mood? >> there is a feeling -- we are proud scots. could we go it alone has been answered. of course we could. the question is should we? is it the best thing for my kids? these are the big questions. everybody is different. i suppose that is what makes it

exciting. >> a number of international voices have been speaking out on this. whether the scottish voters want them to or not. bill clinton weighing in. somebody you know well because you run a foundation with him in africa. do the scots welcome these international perspectives? is one ofnt clinton the big brains i called upon to try and help. free world.r of the he's probably one of the best brains i've ever come across. he does not have a side -- not a vote -- in this debate. when he speaks, i tend to listen. it is up to every voter in scotland whether they want to listen. >> you worked with him on various philanthropic activities. philanthropicown activities. what is the most exciting thing you are doing right now in that sphere? >> we work with president clinton in rwanda.

trying to help people help themselves out of poverty through sustainable economic development. , we aree in scotland trying to help create a more entrepreneurial society. where peopleeries come with their business ideas. they get mentoring through a place called e spark. hopefully we can help them turn their idea into a business. >> tell me about the animal spirit, the famous phrase to describe entrepreneurial spirit. how alive are animal spirits in scotland? how does the world of the entrepreneur? >> if we go back, arthur harriman of georgetown university said "the scots invented the modern world." through the enlightenment, which happened here. david hume, etc.

we took a bit of a dip as nationalized interests dominated the scottish economy. , we havemines closed had to readjust. we are a little bit behind but we are catching up fast. >> in which sectors do you think are catching up? we were talking to a software engineering business. talking about media businesses. which packets of entrepreneurial activity are you excited about? whichever way tomorrow's vote goes. are firstversities class. we have a fantastic university putting out graduates into the workplace. some of the areas where we are leading the world are the creative industries and the games industry. there are lots of sectors where scots -- the biotech, etc. there's a lot to be positive

about in scotland the matter what happens. there ishat suggest more ability to diversify the scottish economy away from things that may have dominated of late like oil and financial services? >> oil is a hot topic. whether it is 15 billion barrels or 25 billion barrels, it is still quite a lot. of course we can diversify. we have great wind, great wind rebel -- we have great wind" renewables. >> thank you for joining us. tom hunter of west coast capital joining us on bloomberg. the scots laying claim, through the enlightenment, playing a big role in economics. adam smith and others. aboutg further forward

entrepreneurial activities taking place. even the gaming industry. back to you. >> thank you very much indeed. could we, of course we could. should we? that is the more difficult question. anna edwards with tom hunter. we're going to take a break. coming up, stepping up prices. price rises will be avoidable if scotland becomes independent -- we speak to an analyst. ♪

good morning. welcome back. you are watching "the pulse." and live on bloomberg tv. streaming on your tablet. let me take you to some company news. the ceo of airbus has told bloomberg the company can maintain a production rate of a380s a8 380 -- 30 month. we also spoke to them about what is next. thee can maintain production rate in the coming years. aircraft in

the backlog. 50, if you want to order one, i can offer you a slot in 2021. we need to ramp up and see what happens. >> sony widen its net loss forecast overnight. that is after writing down the value of its smartphone business. the company also suspended its dividends. sony has lost money in five of the last six years on declining demand for tvs and compact cameras. europe's largest clothing retailer beat estimates. profit fell to 928 million euros. has now salesara in over 20 markets to offset growth in the home market of spain. the alibaba affect. arriving inbe

london. he is potentially here ahead of what could be the biggest ipo in history. will the company live up to the hype? when we come back. see you in a moment. ♪

>> welcome back. you're watching "the pulse." live from bloomberg's european headquarters in london. i am guy johnson. the battle over scotland's future in the u.k. enters its final day. three polls show the anti-independence vote leading the yes campaign by 52% to 48%. scottish first minister alex salmon bake his final appeal in an effort to claim victory. of ae last 24 hours

two-year campaign. it has been a long road. the billionaire founder of has been placed under house arrest on suspicion of money laundering. the russian oil company says the accusations are groundless. the u.k. unemployment rate has dropped to its lowest level in six years. 6.2% from 6.4%, slightly more than economists had forecasted. jonathan ferro has the details. >> what did euro zone cpi come in at? 0.3%. the bar is so low. ecb had a target at 2%. to do.ve work so have the politicians across europe. you have a rally in europe. stocks in germany up by .5%. in the u.k., up .2%. talk about what might come out of the federal reserve. do they keep that considerable

time, that little quote, in the fed statement? outside of that, happy talk. more juice from the people's bank of china, $81 billion into five of their biggest banks. let me show you a stock that speaks to but is happening in china. down by 3.71%. it is the regional breakdown that tells the story. asia-pacific growth, there is none, 0%. if the authorities are concerned about a slowdown in china, what does that mean for luxury goods makers? in fx, sterling. 1.63 is what a pound buys you. up .1%. out of the bank of england, unemployment drops, which is higher. s.2 was the vote on rate not enough to get rates higher anytime soon. does it even matter what is

said? over the last 30 days or so, the drop-off in sterling has been pretty dramatic. down by 2.4 percent. p not so long ago, we were punching above 1.70. it is about the scottish both. 1.55,alyst looking for will he get that if they vote yes? >> he is right about many things. >> he might be right. >> everybody has a call, that is what makes a market. "surveillance" will be starting shortly. scarlet fu is joining us from new york. we are watching scotland. i guess you have the fed to think about. >> jonathan ferro set us up with his market check. highly anticipated news

conference the fed will be holding since last year when the fed was going to announce tapering. that is the anticipation. jon mentioned the phrase "considerable period." will they drop that reference, setting us up for a period of interest rate increases. pimcod clarida of will project what the fed's course of action will be. apple watch, tim cook says they created a brand-new product. consumers are not sure this is going to be a game changer. they are not sure they're going to line up and by this thing the way they did with the iphone. what does this mean for luxury watchmakers? our guest host advises brands and retailers globally. he will give us perspective on how they are positioning themselves. how the likes of cartier and ro lex should respond to the apple

threat. >> looking forward to that. going to be a great shout. -- great show. scotland is also on the agenda. heading to the polls tomorrow. it will vote on its independence or whether to remain in the union. both campaigns making a final push. joining us on the phone from aberdeen is john timpson, chairman of timpson. you have had your shoes affixed there and how your keys cut there. is a key scottish business. he says scott are sleepwalking into a nightmare. good morning. in terms of the risks that -- in termsnning, c -- of a risk that scotland is running, can you give us a sense of the risks? >> things are not going to change overnight. we are not going to wake up on

friday and find is in a new situation. if there is a yes vote, we will be faced with a great deal of uncertainty. -- theely hood of his likelihood is we are likely to have changes in tax rates. my view is that those changes will be more likely up then down. it is more expensive for us to trade in scotland and is in england, wales, or northern ireland. mainly because of the cost of business rates. are going to you find a lot of other businesses to hold backoing out of further investment until i find out what is going to happen. i think they're going to find it open more shops in places like portsmouth.

>> can you quantify that for me? how much do you spend every year investing in new stores and refurbishing your stores? what that would mean in material terms. >> we are spending currently between 15 million and 20 million pounds a year. >> you think people of that post a yes vote would go south of the border? >> just about all of that. until you can see what the shape a different country's economy is going to be like, especially if it is more expensive to trade there already. training in at foreign country. it is more difficult to trade in southern ireland and it is -- than it is in the rest of the british isles. it would be sensible to hold off

putting any more investment in. terms of your banking arrangements, are the bulk of your banking arrangements south of the border? what kind of exposure would you have north of the border? >> all our banking is south of the border. nothing would change as that is concerned. overall, is not what is going to happen to the scottish economy. it is what the effect of an independent scotland will have on the rest of the british economy. >> what would your expectation the there? theould be a wrench for scottish economy if we get a yes vote. it would be a wrench for the rest of the u.k. what kind of impact would happen in the rest of the u.k.? >> the worst that is going to happen is a seven search of which is really

coming through. we are seeing it on the high street. we will have a blip. we could quite easily go back to less confidence. the economy could take a downturn. silas, on the fringes of the yes campaign, made a comment talking about a day of reckoning for certain businesses . do you think that is a realistic threat. it probably reflects an extreme view. how do you think business is going to be treated post a yes vote? >> it was a worrying comment. if it affects anything of what the new scottish government is going to be like, it showed misunderstanding of the way business works.

and a general level of incompetence. in the end, a new scottish government will have to work with business or it will not create the wealth it needs. it doesn't help to have comments like you just mentioned. >> have you had any sense of backlash? there have been people talking about the fact that they felt there has been a little bit of negativity being pushed towards business. have you felt any of that? >> not at all. people are still cutting their repairedhaving shoes and doing all the things we do. is,of my biggest concerns apart from the well-being of our shops, is the well-being of the colleagues who work for us in scotland. i know we will be able to give them a much better deal of scotland continues to be part of

the british isles. plenty ofre there are politicians who are going to be afterg their shoes fixed the campaign. thank you very much indeed. john timpson, chairman of timpson. in london as jack a prepares to make ipo history. when we come back in a few minutes. ♪

>> welcome back. you're watching "the pulse peer for china's biggest e-commerce company could be on the cusp of making ipo history. ryan chilcote is at the alibaba roadshow in london. ryan? >> the last day of the roadshow kicks off in two hours. the last opportunity for alibaba management to pitch their story ahead of the ipo. live friday on the new york stock exchange. to discuss the prospects for alibaba, we are joined by head of china research at nsbo. this company has grown so much already. what is the upside for alibaba going forward in china? it is in a sweet spot and in

china. you have huge support the hunt e-commerce. grow 30% on anto annual basis and reach about $3 trillion by next year. that is the significant growth. downgrowth does trend for 2014. why you are getting such a response was that you have seen better growth and profitability. can grow at 50% and still grow margins. not lot of bonds would complain about 50% growth and still growing margins. what about growth outside china? >> that is an area alibaba has not been so strong. it gets business from wholesalers. growth internationally is only 20%. a represents an opportunity. it will be the first time you

really see a new economy with companies in china and her and the international sphere. most of the time it is manufacturing or trading. this time it is a new economy, technology company coming to take market share. >> you reckon they have a good chance? >> they have a good model that is difficult to replicate. you have got the alipay. they all fit in to each other and promote a lot more activity. to replicate that outside would be a big task. even expanding a little bit into e-commerce in europe or the u.s. should make a difference. >> talk about the risks to alibaba's growth. >> online is a very regulated area. alibaba has an 80% market share. whether it can sustain that. there could be policies that could change that. it was not allowed a private

banking license. there are some question marks about whether he can keep expanding to the areas it wants to. it has domestic competition. and then things on the horizon like an online sales tax, up to 10%. >> if you buy something and china from the alibaba group right now, generally speaking, you are not paying a sales tax. if you go to a store, you do. they have a leg up. isthe ministry of finance looking at that. in august and said we're going to look at how we should apply it. that would be a threat. threat, another minor online payments. at the moment, that is not seen as a significant problem. >> what is the likelihood that if i use alibaba i will end up with dodgy fake goods? >> buyer beware. there have been instances that they have tried to crack down on. a publicly being

traded company you have to be more transparent. there will be more targeting because they are now a public company. >> how concerned do you think amazon should be? >> amazon has a different model. if you have a company with such a successful business model coming in to a certain market, then yes. amazon has to look to china. china is a difficult market to enter for international companies. as we have been finding recently. >> jack ma might show up. this is supposed to start at 12:30. if you have one question, what would it be? >> one question? >> you think about him all the time. -- them all the time. what is the unknown going forward? >> where the big expansion is going to be. whether in financial services or internationally. the core business is functioning very well.

is the new business. i want to see where their new opportunities are. >> miranda carr, thank you for your time. is an issue that a lot of companies face as they expand internationally. theythey diversify, what diversify into, will it be as successful as the core business they are in. when they are a private company, that does not matter as much. to bother them about that. it is an issue not of the company is public. >> i take it that was not jack ma behind you. we will see if he shows up. ryan chilcote joining us from outside the alibaba event. sorry about that. from alibaba to airbus.

the company has finally delivered its first of 4 a380s. hans nichols spoke to the ceos. did the ceo had to say? >> he'd knowledge sales are soft and it is a challenging environment. he says they will be able to keep up production. a350, there's a backlog and a long wait. >> we can maintain the production rates in the coming years. we have 750 aircraft in the backlog. for the a350, if you order one, i can offer you a slot in 2021 a t best. we need to move to a ramp-up and see what happens. >> we tried to press him on when their firstll make

delivery to qatar. all he said was the end of this year. businesslass seats, 46 class. the rest is economy, 461. big bet by qatar. they are putting pressure on lufthansa. spohr's poor -- carson trying to fend off a strike. the ceo of qatar seems to be almost sympathetic with the plight of his fellow ceo. do.e has a difficult job to friends disagree. carrierse that gulf are the cause of the pressure lufthansa has. >> what is the cause? >> i would not like to get into

politics. i know what the causes are. i feel sorry for him. i am sure he envies me very much because we do not have to take the crap of the unions. >> i suspect the pilots unions would disagree or take issue with that characterization. they are trying to fight for early retirement for pilots. issue in germany. >> you have to look at what is happening and air france. a big issue for european carriers. thank you very much indeed. fascinating stuff. we will turn our attention back to scotland. days to go until the

independence vote. a day to go. all hands on deck. make their final appeals. back in edinburgh when we come back. ♪

>> what should we be watching for the rest of the day?

anna edwards in edinburgh and jonathan ferro here. let's start in scotland. the final push. >> the final push from both sides. campaigning events taking place today in scotland. glascow, the no campaign meeting at george square. alastair starling, gordon brown, and the like should be there. the yes campaign has an event in glascow as well. scottish actors expected to be there. have not seen sean connery's name. alex salmond will be visiting and engineering business. the first minister of scotland will be visiting a business. then onto perth. speaking there in the last push to try to influence intentions tomorrow. >> looking forward to your coverage. anna edwards in scotland. ferro on the fed. >> "considerable time."

janet yellen takes to the post. qe ends.xt month, possibly.hike, that is it for "the pulse." scotland will be a subject for us tomorrow. ♪

>> waiting on the fed. investors want to know the timetable for rating -- for raising interest rates.

too close to call in scotland. we will see what is at stake. and is the clock ticking on luxury watchmakers? they are getting unexpected competition from apple's smart watch. good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance ," live from our world headquarters in new york. i'm scarlet fu. joining us today is olivia sterns and adam johnson. tom keene is on assignment, taking a rare day off as well. >> as he should. >> and he is on radio. >> and while, you are in tiffany blue. good to have you on the set. >> good to be here. a u.k. unemployment falls to six-year low. 6.1%. are 6.2.lmost -- we you can understand why the bank of england is talking about -- >> fastest-growing economy in the