>> it's decision day for scotland. voters will decide today whether to split from the rest of the united kingdom. we are live in edinburgh. >> janet yellen keeps her low rate pledge. the federal reserve says rates will stay near zero for a considerable time as the central bank outlines its exit. injection isus underway.

ecb will announce the results of its first targeted lending program today to grace one-on-one with axel weber. we bring you an exclusive. >> government needs to establish trust into a sound fiscal and monetary operation of europe. to "countdown." election little under than one hour, the scottish referendum begins. a yes vote would see scotland breakaway from the united kingdom, ending a union that has lasted 300 years. the head of the voting, what are the latest polls saying? >> good morning, airline and john. -- caroline and john. it a day they decided to vote tuesday in the more than

300-year-old union? is dark and misty. a little bit hubble bubble, toil and trouble. but for who, we should know by this time tomorrow. the latest polls that you referred to came out overnight in late yesterday in the business day. two of them, one concerning exactly the same trend we have seen from three polls the previous evening. aheadggesting the noes and the yes is at 48%, after you stripped out the undecided voters. the other polls showing things a little bit tighter than that. 51% for no and 49% for yes. by any definition it really is going down to the wire. the turnout could be spectacular. some polls are suggesting north of 80 or 90%.

97% of the potential electorate have registered to vote, which is a phenomenal number by anybody's standards. but it really is stimulating. >> overnight the campaigning has been continuing. who has been saying what? the s&p leader, the fiery nationalist leader here in scotland was telling his supporters to seize this opportunity. he's trying to paint it as a once-in-a-lifetime off her 290 -- opportunity. we had david cameron this week talking about the possibility of a painful divorce, saying there could be no trial separation. yesterday gordon brown echoing make bath, talking about when this is on, is it done, there is no going back. that is the message of the

better together campaign. so it is decision day for scotland. scottish residents and those who are resident here in scotland from the eu and the commonwealth will get to decide. anybody from 16 years and upward. there are some interesting dynamics around the election which means comparing it to other elections are tricky. voicesr of international cannot resist getting involved. is spanish prime minister watching so carefully what is happening here. he says he has no sympathy with the independent. he said it is bad for the united a whole.nd the eu as president obama and the white house saying they believe the u.k. is an extraordinary partner for america in an unstable world. the latest of elements in the middle east, testimony to the instability of the world he referred to their. angela merkel is making no

contingency plans. she is making no plans for how things will change if the third-largest economy in the ee you were to split, and that is what is at stake here, of course. the celebrity world also getting involved. j.k. rowling has been a longtime supporter of the better together campaign. she does not want to see an independent scotland. she has been reinforcing that message on twitter overnight. andy murray, the wimbledon champion, he is a scott. he doesn't live in scotland anymore, he lives in england, so he is not able to vote, but he has weighed in with his opinion overnight, coming down on the side of the nationalist and supporting the independence campaign. we should know who wins out by this time tomorrow. shakespearedose of for our early financial news.

thanks very much indeed. >> i like to think that scotland is not the only thing that is happening. i have an exciting life. they finished their two-day meeting yesterday, the september statement looked a whole lot like the july 1. ates won't rise until considerable time after qb ends. the question is still, what on earth is a considerable time even mean and as janet yellen even know what it means? have a listen to the fed chair herself. no mechanical interpretation of what the term considerable time means. repeatedly, the decisions that the committee makes about what is the appropriate time to begin to

raise its target for the federal funds rate will be dated and. forhere's my bottom line you, caroline. nobody knows what a considerable time even means, not even janet yellen. i listened to the whole press conference and had a headache by the end of it. greenspan used to say, if you think i was clear, you probably misunderstood what i said. she avoided everything she was said to meet >> she has unemployment is still a concern, the labor market is still a concern. things, the side of market reacts to that and suddenly you are seeing interest rates rising that much faster than they did. >> janet yellen has come out in let'sst and said that -- bring up the dots. have a look at these dots.

it's where they think federal reserve rates will be in 2015-2017. 1.375%.at a rate of that is higher than when they put these forecasts out in june. you don't know which dot is which official. a guest. probably have the big thing here is, look at the dispersion. you have some at the fed thinking rates will be near zero in 2016 and someone there who thinks rates will be near 3%. the market wants something because the markets ran away with these dots and drove the market higher. 1.5% which get to would mean five rate rises next year. that would be six rate rises if

they are sticking to this medium. quite some people at the fed would like to do that slow and gradual thing. talking about another central bank, the ecb is going on a new pass today. how much do we think of these new targeted long-term refinancing operations that will be taken up? the money went into bonds and severn debt. this time, mario draghi would like this to go into the real economy. the issue for him is maybe it won't. is, you're not going to get penalized for that. it wants that to happen, but will it? beyond that, what is the money going to be used for? >> going to take things over to

switzerland for you. heading to the zürich where manus cranny is standing by at the grand hotel. i'm told it is very beautiful. >> it makes very interesting reading. you're right, i'm up in the hills of tides zürich. family about the officers getting together. terms,ionaire wealth there are 155 billionaires in the world. their wealth globally is 7.3 trillion dollars. everything you and johnny just talked about, we had that conversation with axel weber. you will hear that through programming. that hasgreat rotation started. people are moving out of fixed income into equities. that is the essence of my conversation with axel weber. it's about reassurance.

i like axel weber because he brought everything back down to the issue. were all a little benign about our perception of volatility. risk,re is the ukraine there is really a lot of risk out there. investors may be a bit too benign about the volatility in the market. we are seeing my terry policy globally will diverge between the u.s. and europe and also between the u.s. and japan. we'll see more -- we will see more volatility and movement in exchange rates. that's something we haven't seen for a long time. eventually notat just emerging markets but even established economies will see some major movement in the exchange rate. we've seen in over the last four weeks with the euro and there is

even more to come. momentum continues into 2015 and beyond. >> it's not just the dollar-euro. let's talk about another current we pair which in our view, focus on two. the other central bank that is likely to move early, you can question why they might move earlier than the fed, is the bank of england. mark carney has given an indication that by spring, and whether that means february or another month, but by spring, getting into the normalization phase for monetary policy is great. the other is the swiss national bank, which has moved to a floor for the swiss franc relative to the euro. if you are to ask me about another currency pair, one of the central banks that was the european is

central bank. another is most likely going to be the swiss national bank. >> always good when you're interviewing takes you to the heart of the markets. stay with us for the next hour because we talk about the ecb and what mario draghi actually needs to make that work. you stress tested banks, that is one thing. the one thing that is not being stress tested as all the litigation risk in banking. that is what europe needs. they tuned over the next two hours, we have great conversations. >> i saw a sparkly ring, manus cranny. >> he likes a little jewelry

when he is out in the field. >> follow manus cranny on twitter and join us as well. let's continue the conversation. the next guest says forget about the fed, the only thing that matters is the economic data. our guest joins us next. stay with us. ♪

>> welcome back to "countdown." let's talk about the fed. our guest now. you have explain this to me. how does the fed gets stuck higher and get the dollar higher at the same time? what was in the message yesterday? >> the clear message is that the fed needs critical mass for strong u.s. data. then they can go faster. equity markets like that because they still get -- when the fed

starts hiking, they will get very strong data in the dollar like that because what's good for equity markets is good for the dollar, and you get faster rate hikes when they do start which is good for the dollar. somehow they strike a delicate allen's. our user price we're seeing such a pace of interest rate hike? it seems to be faster than the market was anticipating. haven't the bond yield started to rise that much faster? >> the question is will the fed start early and go slow or start later and go faster.

it seems the latter is what will actually happen. there was a lot of discussion whether the fed would keep the language for a considerable time. they kept it, but i think the fed was concerned, they didn't want to surprise markets are trigger the markets care we got a year ago when they announced it for the first time. she focused a lot on the data. defendant -- dated dependent, not time-dependent. makes no sense anymore. the problem is for them as well, they don't know what a considerable time even means. >> it doesn't mean much, honestly. everything the pins on data. we never saw consistently strong data.

>> august employment was much lower than expected. >> that was the only negative some rise. all the other surprise was to the upside. fed would feel much more confident that the tightening jeopardize their recovery. >> even though have long-term above where still it was during the financial crisis, this is what janet yellen was really worried about. >> it is a little bit controversial. it's theconcern but job of fiscal policy, active labor market policy, and many argue the fed is the only dog in the room that cannot take a decision on the unemployment problem. to the extent that the fed can

-- up to an extent the fact that they're telling us that they will start hiking rates late but they will go faster, they do keep an eye on inflation expectations. >> in what month will they see rates drop? >> in june, and then if they are strong they will do it almost every month. we will talk about another key central bank with a very different set of policies right now. that is after the break. ♪

we get theack, results of the first auction today. mario draghi would like is money to be used for small and medium enterprises across the eurozone. are the banks going to use it for that? >> not really. the thresholds are quite general, so the banks can use a lot of the money for so-called -- we expect the banks to be cautious and more so in december than september. in 2015 there will be much room to grow so the banks will borrow

less next year that it might lead to more credit. >> what does that number look like today? september andoth december to be 260 billion. for september it might be less than 100 billion but it will not be such a big surprise. find themselves between it isber and december, if a number well below 100 billion, that will be a surprise. pointb will meet at some to -- >> he is promising a trillion euros to be injected into the system. it's also the asset backed securities and we don't learn how they will do that until october. ecb meeting is it's

serenely important. this is when mario draghi explains how they will reach the target of 1 trillion and how long it would take. how exactly it's going to be and how they're going to develop the market, who will guarantee it? all these are important questions, and what happens if they don't meet the target? likely yes because it will increase the chances they will consider alternative measures. thank you. >> thank you for coming in and joining us. we were bring you more insight into what may be -- world biggest share stale share sale, alibaba. stay with us. we are back in two minutes. ♪

to> welcome back" to "countdown." that was a stronger dollar. the interpretation of the forecast for rates a more hawkish time driving the dollar higher across the board. check out euro swiss. there is going to be a big talking point. 0 against-- it is 1.2

the euro. a lot of people talking about the swiss national bank responding. a little bit less pressure. we are at 1.21 against the euro. meetsiss national bank today. will they go negative? a lot of people talking about that. hour to go before voting begins in the scottish national referendum. will scotland break away from the united kingdom and -- this is a union that lasted more than three centuries. a bid to win undecided voters. supporting syrian rebels fighting islamic state extremists. the bill will be used to train and equip syrian rebels. the fed has stuck to its alleged to keep interest rates news at

-- near zero even as unemployment rates and inflation approaches the central bank target. the labor market has yet to fully recover. janet yellen said he could take the fed to the end of the decade to reduce its $4.4 trillion balance sheet with levels more consistent with normalized hollis he -- policy. let's talk about ukraine as violence continues. the ukrainian resident is working for closer ties with europe. why achieving peace in the region may take longer than anyone wishes. difficult to speak about lasting peace. we have good news avenue of cease-fire. that is when we can stop the number of -- the scale of violence and the number of and i am not -- optimistic that we have a

project of peace. we have two big cities in the hands of separatists. have a dramatic situation in some eastern regions. we have a situation in crimea which is part of the russian federation illegally against international law. i think we still have a question mark as to what to do. i am afraid that his plan is to as a zone ofine interest in this destabilization will continue. not much with -- so much was military measures but he will try to destabilize the situation in ukraine permanently. deal with the huge corporation story. alibaba on track to break the record for the world's biggest

ipo. for more on the country -- company on its valuation we are and a from hong kong chief china strategist. we know how big this ipo will be. talk to me about risk. keylieve that investment in industries such as telecoms and the internet in china is prohibited. how is this being taken by the chinese authorities when foreign investors should not be able to invest in key industries? are rejected industries. people bypass this regulation by using a structure so investors can own a piece of earnings of the company but not the piece of the company. there is a key difference there so there is a risk of putting money into this kind of structure. so far many companies listed in the u.s., they have been using the structure and so far so

good. there has not been too much of an incident going on when people put money into that structure. >> how big is the risk investing structure? risk?-- is my money at >> theoretically it is but because there is no big precedents involved and ali baba using the structure to bypass forregulations, in essence investors to participate in the ipo. i would not say at the moment it is too much of a risk involved and also remember the cause of the size of the ali baba and the market status of the company it theuite unlikely for company to be engaged in anything that is detrimental to investors' benefits.

>> alibaba is a phenomenally huge e-commerce growth story in china. its cards quite carefully. it will be a huge ipo, potentially the biggest in history. 168 billionf dollars. that is cheaper than where facebook tried to price itself and the rivals such as tencent a nd baidu. they incautious so they can invest even bigger? >> the company under prices -- underpriced itself. the pricing range has been afted up a little bit after welcoming reception of the ipo. at two yearsook later using the earnings, you see this company at 20 to 30

times p -- p/e. that pricing at a relatively conservative valuation would give you the better reception and even the first week performance after listing. amazing.ba's growth is we can see that it will keep ramping up and we are expecting d doinginese online an more mobile purchasing. this is the story of the chinese outside of the country as well. give us a sense of scale, how big could this become? it is already bigger than amazon. >> if you look at the gross merchandise volume it is already bigger than amazon and ebay combined. ands 1.6 trillion yuan

takes 90% of the traffic. it is relatively large. if you look at the domestic chinese market, it is the younger faster growing market and has a lot of potential. i would say that the company would be better off focusing on the chinese market before expanding. we are seeing a small extension of the company in southeast asian countries. for the chinese company to expand overseas there are to difficulties. cultural differences, etc. i would say that it would be better for the company to focus on the chinese market first because there is huge potential. >> the other big difference is the word competition. there is not any in china in the same way there is in the u.s.. ali baba has been insulated from foreign competition within this market in china. is the chinese government going

to be the friend of alibaba for the foreseeable future? >> and one of the meetings last year i clearly remember mr. ma the government wants he can turn over the company especially the payment system just like that. and saying that, he actually -- his willingness to hand over the desk company to the government. i would say that because the company is a key company in the chinese economy, it takes about 90% of the e-commerce volume. it would be a little difficulty imagining why the government would not want this company to prosper. also if you look at the government's policy it is encouraging innovation and growth in an industry. alibaba is a key benefactor of

the latest government policies. >> talk to us about where the share price can go. you're saying it is currently undervalued. they're not grabbing all the money they possibly could. there is on the of investors, in the roadshow in london all of those are managing to get hold of the shares, they will have to wait for the secondary market. how high could this push-up above $60 or is that the highest point we get? >> because the valuation is quite conservative, the reception of the ipo has been great and the pricing range has been lifted up. derivatives of the company, yahoo! and options stocks has gone up substantially. there is 20% to 30% upside to

alibaba after listing. >> we will talk to you after the listing and have a chat where the stock is owing next. thank you very much. more tech.alkign ios8, what are the changes and are they any good? we will take a look. ♪

>> i am caroline hyde. sony shares have plunged the most in more than three years. the consumer electronics maker was down as much as 13% at one point in the tokyo session after sony widened its net loss forecast to $2.1 billion. the chief executive said he struggled to revive the smartphone business. >> we regret that our new strategies were not sufficient enough to accommodate changes in the market area and also level phones for the emerging markets were not widely accepted as we had expected. i still feel it is my mission to turn around the current situation. isthe swiss maker

considering expanding its energy industry equipment business to potential merger. this could create a company with with sales of $6.5 billion. apple is delaying the release of its health tracking software after discovering an early flaw. it was supposed to be included as part of the ios eight oh will software release -- mobile software release. 8.apple is releasing ios on of gradinged cosmetics. we take you through the five against changes. -- biggest changes. a break not so much with the past. the changes are more functional, less aesthetic.

here are five of the most important ones. past when you got a notification that someone had e-mailed her texted you you had to read the alert then open the app and find the message and reply. respond directan way within the notification itself. it works really well and allows you to get back to people very quickly without interrupting whatever else you were doing. os's such as android and library the keyboard predicts words as you type them. the system can learn your writing style and make suggestions based on it. as of now it is good in theory but i wish the suggestions would come up a little faster. also when you have a are -- a bar of suggested words you limit the amount of his double screen that you can type on. if you do not like it you can always turn it off.

now record your voice and send it to someone as a text. this may seem silly because you might ask is in that with the phone was for? it makes a lot of sense. >> i will be there in five minutes. >> this is going to replace a lot of the calls they generally make. app has some swiping features. more importantly apple finally seems to have gotten search right on its mail app. gmail's app it features an improved search function. have you coming back. if your device is plugged in you

can activate siri with your voice. competitors have had this feature so it is not surprising the company would included. one place this is useful is the car. if some of these sound familiar it is because they are. we have seen them in competing devices but apple is not shy from taking an existing technology and refining it and including it in its own devices. as for the question should i up grade? the first version of any software is likely to have some bugs in it. if you can hold out apple always pushes out an up date in the coming weeks that ironed out all the kinks. will be downloading that asap. youtube star has

risen this time in the book world. we will have that story and more next. ♪

>> welcome back. awesome caroline

hyde. of followersllions on youtube. 15started at the age of playing videos of himself doing everyday stuff. pointless videos. he has built up a following that is quite phenomenal. he and his girlfriend both students together. he has 1.7 million followers on twitter. his videos have been watched 37 million times. he has launched a book. the book has gone so sensational that for the first time the signing has to be held in the excel arena. signinge going to do a two weeks ago. 8000 teenage girls turned up taking organizers by surprise. 8000 for this guy called alfie. people turned up for david

beckham. this guy is more than 10 times more popular than david beckham. he has this new book. just reading his tweets. he says like last night -- it gets 4000 favorites and 700 retweets. watch in bed? he sets challenges. >> the people behind they camera cannot contain themselves. he is obviously quite humorous. -- people are obsessed with him. i will have to go buy it and see

what it is all about. >> let's go to something a little bit more, what have you got? >> a cake in a mug. a bit chilly on the hill here and at a borough. enboro. being echoed by a number of the papers. a number of the papers appealing for everyone to come together after the vote. that is one of the messages coming through and on the " still sitting on the fence. beginning with a blank page emphasizing the message that there will be change. we get to the more fleet street influenced or u.k. influenced

front pages. this is the scottish daily mail. united kingdomhe and calling for that union to stamp place and we see similar messages from u.k. papers. do not leave us this way. the sun set on our union from the scottish daily express. a number of papers expressing their views in favor of the union. other papers saying that they want to go for independence. many of the papers coming out with this line, whatever the outcome, scotland needs to back to business on friday and scots need to work together for the future of scotland and there will be change either way which is a message we have heard from all sides in this campaign. john, caroline? >> thank you. mark martin is not here today. andll take up the football marks on her. mark will love this because he is a man u fan.

1-nil. and scoring a 30 yard screamer. 1-hil.se they cannot -- 1-nil. manchester united even playing in certain -- >> our ford manager did not like that -- for manager did not like that. you have something for us. what have you got? >> we are going to hans and germany. >> i have the cost of a dog for your entire life. have no nudity in the paper. you have a yorkshire terrier, 34,000 euros for the cost of his life. a rottweiler am a 45,000.

and a labrador is at 40,000 euros. nudity.vs. thanks very much. follow us after the break.

x it is decision day for scotland. the country votes today on whether to leave the united kingdom. we are live in edinburgh. >> the federal reserve says rates will stay near zero for considerable time. the central bank outlines its asset purchase exit. the ecb will announce the results of its first targeted

loan program today. we bring you a bloomberg exclusive with the ubs chairman. need togovernments establish his trust of corporations, trust of the people of europe into a sound fiscal and monetary operation of europe. >> welcome to "countdown." i am joined by caroline hyde. >> the polling booths have opened and voting in the independence referendum has begun and anna edwards is live. what is the process, laid out here for us. >> a rather murky thursday morning as the sun just comes up . voting as you say has started and the polls are opening in scotland at 7 a.m. this morning. anyone who is registered to vote over the age of 16 can go to the polls. anyone who is british or from

the commonwealth of if they're living in scotland and they are registered are able to vote. embers of the scottish nationalist party will be voting at 7:30 a.m. be voting inwill aberdeen. the better together campaign also voting. we have live pictures for you of the polling stations just opening up. 14,000 people have applied. a number of people perhaps already having applied. a simple majority will win either way. that is how the voting works here. the first place to report should be the western isles and you can imagine the places with smaller populations might report first. anything from 2:00 a.m. friday

we will get results from the isles. and will come in gaelic english. the big metropolitan areas not expected to report until 5 a.m. on friday. final results around breakfast time. we will the results on bloomberg and bloomberg news will be covering it as well and our survey -- our website will be covering it. is website scotlandreferendum.info. that is what we are looking forward to. this time tomorrow we might know who has one. -- has won. are scottish businesses preparing for the results either way they go?

>> we have heard a lot from scottish businesses about what this means for them. we have an interesting story overnight about the marketing teams that many is this is who are grateful that the spotlight is shining on his -- on scotland. that -- they hope the spotlight will stay on scotland and they want to point to those industries they say do not get so much attention. the likes of the whiskey industry and education industry, establishments in saint andrews and edinburgh. the technology industry keen to get a bit of that spotlight. they supply galaxy smartphones and they are based in scotland. and they make grand theft auto if you need that job. the scottish technology industry also keen to get a piece of the spotlight and they're hoping that the spotlight stays on scottish businesses long after our cameras have been packed up.

back to you. >> a huge area for gaming when it comes to the industry. >> i hope manus cranny has some nice weather. he gets the sunshine always. ubs has released the report and it makes for some pretty interesting reading. more billionaires and more rings on their finger. >> you're right. there are more billionaires. what is interesting about the past 24 hours, this is pretty amazing -- an amazing hotel where they brought together the offices that do businesses with ubs. a great deal of inter-businesses and a lot of deals done between

family offices. a lot of messages came through. the ecb needs to deliver trust and the great rotation started. probably quite good news overall. butolitics is the main risk trust for the banks and institutions are key. we have become a bit benign and volatility but i know you like the dots from the fed. i am -- the fed signals interest -- it is allistant about the dots and the risk of making mistakes. we had a clear view on federal reserve policy. >> when the fed talks about rate hikes there are two moderates. some indicate early rate had -- hikes of the do not have to go fast and others say let's wait until the recovery is assured in than we are willing to go faster and that constant debate is going to add some uncertainty.

biggest risk that the fed goes early? >> the fed's policy is not in the danger of going to early. -- faces the danger of going to late. -- too late. u.s.nk the risk for prices to come above target rather than below is higher. my preference would be some earlier moves but i am an -- not a policy maker. the important issue is will monetary policy that is done in the u.s. and that is clearly on the restrictive path. my view is more half-year or one year out area that will be more firmly established independent of whether they move earlier or later and what is the impact on the euro and the exchange rate

and that is where i see some additional impact of u.s. monetary policy. >> when you have conversations like that it is great because you have an accent to anchor who is free from the shackles but he is not here to read the tea leaves about whether they join the dots. , thent from zero to 3% rainbow range of the dots. they have to move next year so .t is all over it is a question of how we react when those hikes tom. that central bankers use. the great debate, this is a the bundenker who ran sbank. the does he think governments should do so that comes in the next 25 minutes. they're very gracious here and the food is great and there is a

golf course. lovely day. back to you. >> a mini vacation for manus cranny. >> i am not jealous. rex i bet you there will be some link in that room. i have got some numbers for you from petra diamonds. this company just found a 122 carat blue diamond which they $120 million. of that overall four-year sales up 20% and revenue is $471 million. ebitdas up 47% on an level. where is production going? it was up 17% and they managed to get out of the minds more than 3 million carats but that will increase by 3% for next year.

5 million carats by 2019. we're going to be talking all things carats, diamonds, all things playing. we will speak to the chief executive of paetra diamonds. carats, 27 million. some people think that was not a lot of money for that diamond. why did he not get more money? morehave my eyes on the carat-heavy white diamond that we recently found but that did not sell from your -- nearly as much. it is all about the blue, the different colors. interestingly, who wears the most expensive diamond is our british queen. ,he biggest certified diamond 3106 carats found in the same

minus the blue diamond and it was found in 1905 and it is in the crown jewels. do follow us. comijnng up, another win for the doves. saracen chiefthe executive. more after the break.

>> welcome back. companyor today's news. 13%.as much as the ceo says he has struggled to revive sony's smartphone business area and -- business. our strategiesat were not sufficient. also mobile phones for the emerging markets were not widely accepted as we had expected. i feel it is my mission to turn around the current situation.

>> this is a swiss homemaker considering expanding with a potential merger. with dresser-rand. a company is delaying its release of tracking software. this was supposed to be fixed by the end of the month. fomc.'s get back to the it will not raise interest rates anytime soon. more on the fed's monetary policy. the pace will be pretty quick when they do get going. weseems what we could -- could have five rate rises in 2015? >> it has been lifted by 25 basis points.

2015.e eight meetings in if we raise it only five aces points. the market is scratching its head. that does not feel to me like a considerable time. slightly frustratingly confusing. ridiculous. look at the dispersion of those dots. one near zero and one near 3%. i do not know which official is which. do you put much weight on them? >> the fed did in its report two ands ago and went into debt why they market is not believing the dots and it is much more dovish than the median of those suggests. janet yellen has been clear and they have been given prominence.

i think they're trying to make .he market anchor >> she is keeping the considerable time frame and whatever that might be saying that the labor market is that where she wants it so everyone knows it is not imminent. the market does not terrifyingly sell off. we saw bond selloff in the dollar rise. we did get this sudden readjustment to the pace of interest-rate rises when they do get going next year. generally people think june. how long can this balancing act art of slight confusion carry on? aggravatedwill get by this. year we hadof last that slightly hesitant response, the question on considerable

time that flew over you -- youtube and the social media and took growth stocks down sharply. we had an almost 7% underperformance following that comment and that will be replicated list are medically. a phrase like no mechanical interpretation of considerable time, what does that mean? of policyuite a risk shock creeping into markets and that will mean that you've -- you forestall and this will be the beginnings of quite a marked over for performance of value. into what looks like a bargain basement european market with the euro then it's extremely helpful to the exposures -- x borders. -- exporters. value is starting to

creep up. there is a few grains of hope in the european economic numbers lending us up for two months in a row. it has been up for three months in a row in spain but we are seeing the numbers take up. the fundamentals to improve? in the u.s. they have not done in the s&p saw that 500 and a lot of people would put that down to the central banks staying easy. >> a think you need the second derivative to improve and you need to have a direction that you're going and it reminds me of the u.k. in the end of the first quarter last year. in and we wereme all skeptical at the beginning but it was generous. fromit up and we went

glass half empty to glass half full. gdpot the extraordinary numbers and the world had changed. the world could be at that tipping point. >> how big is the pickup went to be for the first option of those cheap loans? we will be back after this break. stay with us. ♪

>> welcome back. our guest is here to discuss market reaction. we get the results of the first auction of these cheap loans from the ecb at 10 a.m. what are you looking for in that number? >> i am looking for the 400 billion to be reallocated, somewhere in the 200s coming in. if it is slower i do not think it is an take a divot. it will be a slow start. the bank will be hesitant. i think the schemas modeled on the [indiscernible] quite a lot of skepticism. people were saying that was the issue that turned the u.k. economy. >> he would like the balance sheet back to 2012 levels. that would have to push up by

750 billion euros. >> something like that. have four options that he is going to offer on. we have part of the original lt arrow maturing. that will mature over the next six months. i do not think one auction -- this is like the bank of england but a lot more successful. 15 basis points is dirt cheap and the restrictions in the first two years are very light. >> does that mean we do not need full-blown quantitative easing coming from the ecb? >> mario draghi would off to be in that position. run better than expected. i am not sure what full-blooded ofgives you when the rest europe is trading in negative territory. this plus abs and the discount rate we have is pretty hot stuff and i sit back and watch.

if that euro keeps falling he is doing the right thing. >> the pickup is one thing. you talked about what it gets used for. this round of refinancing operations is meant to be targeted. towants this money lent small and medium-size enterprises. is that going to happen? >> he is being realistic area there is a tiny bit of data that lending is improving in italy ends in. and spain. to realistically expect that to plunge into the sme market in the next 18 months is unrealistic that perhaps in two to three years it is. something will happen. stock toindustries or put your money in? >> the downgrades have not come from cyclicals. they have come from banks and telecoms and oil. the cyclical members have faded

by a fraction less than you expect just from the many-downgrade to gdp that we have had. it is into the cyclicals and exporters. which they change on will shift their rate, cyclicals are about as chief relative to to vince systems -- , what in particular are you thinking? >> the quarter stocks, some of ,he bigger number exporters airbus comes to mind as an example. euroe take up of steel to will want to rebuild your positions. futures higher across the board. an exclusive conversation with petra diamond

ceo. >> we could be talking about this, the recent finds the found . and enormous blue diamond sold just shy of $28 million. ♪

♪ welcome back. let's get you an fx check. 1.875.o buys you the weaker euro has been the theme. we get the result of the first auction of those new targeted long-term refinancing options and that comes up at 10:15 a.m. 10:15 a.m.r that at u.k. time.

what does the swiss national inc. do? there is a flaw here. want a weaker swiss franc and they do not want that to appreciate. we have come closer to that floor. the ecb has a negative deposit rate. no one expects that today but the question is there. the swiss national bank releases their decision at 830 -- 8:30 a.m. u.k. time. these are the top headlines. voting now well underway and the scottish independence referendum. scotland would wreck away from the u.k. ending a union that has lasted for more than three centuries. close of the polls at 10 p.m. and the results expected friday morning. the u.s. house has passed a spending bill to support syrian rebels fighting exelon --

islamic state extremists. the bill will be used to train and equip syrian rebels. has stuck to its pledge to keep rates close to zero. unemployment rates and inflation approaches the central bank's target. bank has yetsaid to recover. withevels are consistent normalized monetary policy. >> no one knows what a considerable time is. they might have to take it out next month. petra continue because a rare blue diamond at $122 million and discovered

another. is known to produce diamonds like the model you see. >> that is bigger. this is a replica before anyone thinks i am handling it. size.s was 3000 carats in this is less than 10% of that size. the mind continues to produce very special stones which it is known for over the years. a southwas found in african mine in 1905 and art of it is in the british crown jewels. carats in excess of, the one you just sold that is blue sold -- was more valuable because of the color. 122 carats sold for $28 million.

was that as much as you wanted? many feeling that could have gone higher. >> this was definitely not an abc stone and ucs returning -- retaining a 15% stake. our belief is it will fit a higher price. unpolished and so forth but it was not the most straightforward of stones. nearly $20 million, that is a lot of money for one stone. >> let's talk about your business. is it dependent on the price of stuff you pull out of the ground? >> know because no two diamonds are exactly alike. you have this excitement of these special stones and we have a business model built on the recovery of a certain size and quality range and together with this excitement generated by the stones it all goes to the bottom line.

do you preempt were your output is going because the output jumped a lot, jumped 17% and helped by the blue diamond and white diamond. on auctionat goes later this year. how can you be so sure? has beenamond content established without any shadow of a doubt so we can plan exactly. we are planning to increase our production to 5 million by 2090. -- we are confident of that increase in production. sustained in an increasing trajectory? some of the miners have been the best performing out there in terms of stock prices. can you make sure that these prices will keep increasing at

auction? four years ago the u.s. consumed more than 70% of all polished diamonds so today it is only 36%. the world is growing. many more middle-class households wanting to become diamond earners, it is a lovely product to own and we feel that will continue and natural production has decreased from 170 million carats in 2007 to under 100 30 million today. the supply will remain constrained and you have these new markers in china, india, brazil, russia as diamond consumers. >> you operate in south africa. and in tanzania and botswana. >> we know what is happening with the platinum industry. diamondhappening in the

industry? labor andmuch less more mechanized way so we have recently agreed a three-year agreement with our representative union so we see a lot of stability and it is a different industry than the deep mind. narrowband >> that is a replica and not the real thing. you're thinking of trying to get that diamond. good.looks pretty let's head now to some more bling. at a cranny is standing by rather affluent hotel. you have had a great exclusive interview. did the u.s. -- ubs channel have much to say about their actions today? >> he did. this is a man that sat on the board and ran the fund is bank

-- bundesbank. the one thatsk is no one is really measuring. thought he was cautionary. -- they took on the risk. european governments are not as keen and that is the crux of the issue. without the sovereigns wanting to participate it makes it so much tougher but in a very clear view on risk for the ecb. >> europe has some stability risks and the central bank has to be careful how they use their own balance sheet to deal with these risks. they bought a broad set of risks and it distorts all prices in prizesket and favors for for products which they buy in a targeted session.

rotation -- that is a rotation of risk. what mario draghi is making clear to governments and where germany and france have been having a debate in the government is whether any potential losses of such a policy are actually backed by governments, by a government guarantee. >> is there a case that you would say we should look at fiscal latitude, letting france -- france is on its back economically speaking. is there a case of fiscal lassitude? >> you only have latitude if you are in a favorable starting position. the latitude that governments are focusing on fiscal expansion in my view is not the right approach. governments need to establish trust of corporations, the people of europe into a sound

fiscal and monetary operation with europe. what we need is much less the school expansion and more long term oriented reform. europe will not come back to gross -- everyone is looking for quick fixes. that is not going to work. europe has to do the hard work and do the reforms and eventually will regain growth. to stimulate their growth without having the foundations will be short-lived and not be sustainable and it will be another bump in the development. i do not think it is the right thing to go for. >> you have heard the big issues. the stability risks and the asset-backed securities -- without governments who are averse to taking on or offering guarantees, it is very clear, the potential for abs to really impact markets is limited and that is from a man who knows a

thing or two about a balance sheet risk. back to you. >> thank you. that was the man who could have let the ecb. fantastic excites -- insights from him. >> it might have been a very different looking europe. let's talk about corporate. largest ipobe the ever. theirk ahead to multibillion share sale after the break. >> stress tests are on the horizon. how are the greek banks gearing up? a look at the economic picture when we return.

>> welcome back. i am joined by caroline hyde. >> after fielding questions from investors in a roadshow that ibaba wille and, al price its initial public offering later. 24 and he is he the biggest initial share sale ever. appetite is there. >> one of the reasons we know appetite is there is we have been to all these roadshows and

what the investors say is that the price or most of the relative tohe price future earnings relative to what you pay for other companies like or amazon isnt favorable. a lot of people are willing to ignore some of the questions but they do have questions and there are few so we can talk about those this morning. the first one is investors not getting enough detail on how ali baba -- will expand internationally. the company plans to greatly expand internationally and wants to be a global company. china.ot a company from it pointed out there ready despite having zero employees in russia and brazil. --y are the top a shopping

a-shopping site. >> they are tapping into it and also in some of these places like russia, maybe brazil, amazon is not as well represented. they do not have their indigenous companies. there are investors that saying china -- that are saying china growth is extraordinary. alibnational is ready for amazon.ake on investors have not gotten as much detail as they want as to will deploy that war chest to expand internationally. most investorsny believe could have a very strong global presence area do >> it is -- i am not buying ownership, i am buying a slice of the profits of the company. how much concern was there at that meeting yesterday question

mark >> this is one of these things where a lot of investors appeared to be ready to overlook this issue but mark mobius has talked about two issues. the one you pointed out which is how nearly all chinese companies list in the u.s., variable interest structure that allows them to circumvent chinese laws that forbid significant amounts of foreign investment. is it disallows the after thefrom going underlying assets and another issue which is if you look at the corporate structure of the company you have 30 partners in the company determining the makeup of the board. that is fine if you agree with what the board does. so you are a little bit of a passenger on the journey if you're going to buy into this.

alwayshoo! which is singing their praises making it an issue because they transferred the control of ali pay to accompany controlled by jack ma. was sorted out along the structures of the way that these 30 corporate directors wanted because they are the ones in charge of the board. >> plenty of concern. there was plenty of concern about greece. the greek roadshow is here in london today and tomorrow and ceo.row we speak with the i look at the stock exchange and it has been downgraded to emerging-market status. in your mind, is that where it should be? >> [indiscernible]

andng corporate governance -- in the currency euro. [indiscernible] currency and the corporate [indiscernible] governance on the other hand i believe the investment we have seen, the roadshow that is organized here, it proves that the investors are looking for [indiscernible] there a lot of money coming back in? >> we have 50% increase this year in trading activity. [indiscernible] while the potential they have mentioned are proven by the lag gdphe ratio of capital to

[indiscernible] about whatme investors are bringing. they're starting to cautiously analyze greece once again. your job is getting easier. investors are more interested. you look at politics, main opposition, ahead in the polls. is political instability at home still immersed -- the most worrying for investors? have mentionedou are highly important especially after previous weeks' discussion at the event. for foreign investors are believe the most important issue is the potential for the private mpanies, especially those that are listed. it seems -- they're focusing on invest andnies to

not on the macro environment. >> they are focusing in on what the industry is or what they company is faring individually aside from greece. you have 31 companies on the roadshow? >> exactly. we are well organizing this event. having more than 1000 meetings organized. 1050. to >> busy. best of luck with the meeting -- will have to negotiating you will have to be negotiating. from the athens exchange group. view of the city of london. markets are opening higher. clouds and fog over the city. let's hope the sun comes out.

751 a.m. we will be back in two minutes.

>> welcome back. i am joined by caroline hyde. we are six minutes away from the market open. futures are higher and we have some breaking news. >> it is coming from buyer -- bayer. be votingws they will

their material unit. they will be selling shares on the market and focusing on life sciences and drugs for the human. the agreed -- they agreed in september and they have to get approval from the advisory board. one of the biggest stocks will be looking for a listing perhaps striking while the iron is hot. meetingl discuss at a today and float that on the stock market. will be talking to hans nichols. all over the story about a potential new entrant into the german market. >> the first auction of those refinancing operations. the result of the pickup of that first auction comes at 10:15 a.m. u.k. time a big day. we will be following shares of bayer.

five minutes until the open. stay with us. "on the move" is next. ♪

>> you are watching "on the move." and we are in london moments away from the start of european trading. futures are fractionally higher. scotland is voting. anna, let's start with you. >> it is decision day in scotland. voters will decide whether to stay part of the united kingdom.

we are live in edinburgh. we're also in zürich. splendidt a rather location just outside zürich. we have had unique access to the former president of poland. what does he think the fed's next move should be? it is truly splendid. alibabators in