we are live in edinburgh. we're also in zürich. splendidt a rather location just outside zürich. we have had unique access to the former president of poland. what does he think the fed's next move should be? it is truly splendid. alibabahigher.

we will try to give you a subtle explanation if i can. the dax is up by a third of 1%. the dovish side of the fed, the sentence that rates will not rise until a considerable time after qe ends. the problem is nobody knows what a considerable time is. equities in europe playing catch-up a little bit. why was the dollar higher? --ot of people are looking 1.375% compared to the estimate back in june. forecastan official

over rates will be. those dots do not mean anything at all if you look at them individually. in the fx market, smart money. , this is where the swiss national bank wants to protect the currency. they do not want to appreciate anymore against the euro. this is a little respite for the swiss national bank. the ecb has gone negative. will they have to eventually? the euro-dollar has been interesting play. you saw a stronger dollar off the back of the fed. up across the board. month. 3.63% on the the big one today is the result of that first option. at 1015ult comes out

u.k. time. what number is considered a disappointment? what does it mean for the straight question mark if the banks don't take up the money in the first option, a b-day cake it in december -- maybe they take it in december. you and i will be all over that one. >> will they have to buy more abs? it is an interesting question. there aren't that many to buy, which is a bit of a problem. the venn diagram on this one is fascinating. thank you very much. back to our top story. scotland's referendum on independence, pulls across

scotland have opened. they did so in our ago. anna edwards is in edinburgh following the story. rather murky a edinburgh morning. if you are over the age of 16, registered to vote, you get a thisn the future of country. if you are british or from the european union or the commonwealth and living in scotland, you get to vote today. 4.3 million people have registered to vote. polls have been open since 7:00 a.m. a simple majority is what is required for one side or the other. that is the way the voting works. the polls will remain open until 10:00 this evening. the votes will be sent to 32 counting centers and those 32

county centers -- counting centers sent their numbers to the chief operating officer. she will have a fairly nervous 24 hours. here are some interesting facts. where they will be voting, locations like schools, community centers. this time, we are learning that caravans are being used. 52 voters are registered a caravan. some very enterprising hotels are offering cocktails whilst you vote. offering bacon sandwiches afterwards. some churches are offering prayer with your voting. whichever way you like to vote, there is something for everybody. 2:00e expecting to hear at

in the morning. it could first comment gaelic and then english. we will be scrambling for dictionaries. the first results around 2:00 a.m. breakfast time is when the electoral commission says we will get the official results. >> and i will be covering the story -- anna will be covering the story for us. i am sure she will not be partaking in the cocktails. that is what we are watching. edmund, i have the ecb. a vaguely know where the ecb is going. i have all kinds of things at the moment that are on my risk radar. prior toys those for me --

prioritize those for me. >> it is a big question. i am not sure you should be invested in equities right now. >> why not? >> september is a tricky month generally in this month is proving to be no exception. we have had quite a big cell of bonds. -- a big sell off on bonds. there is greater uncertainty over the outlook for bonds that normally would be the case. normally, september is a good month for bonds. this month has not been. of front and center is the fed -- upfront and center is the fed. if you look at the ecb , what can they buy? this is a market they need to

create. that will take time. shrunk balance sheet has 33%. >> will be back in a couple of minutes. ♪

>> still too many people who want jobs but cannot find them. too many who are working part-time who would prefer

full-time work. too many who are not searching for a job, but would be if the labor market were stronger. >> that was janet yellen. a dovish tone after yesterday's policy meeting. she maintains a commitment for low rates for a considerable time. when rates start going up, they might be going up faster. our markets editor was speaking to the chairman of the world's biggest wealth manager. he joins us now from zürich. >> i was surprised. we chatted and he said the risk is that the fed is too far behind the curve. the two schools of thought that are involved in the federal

reserve. when you look at last night announcement and the good old dots, the dots say it is all over. rates are going higher. he had is take on timing and timing is everything. >> when the fed talks about rate hikes, there are two models. some advocate early rate hikes so they don't have to go fast. others say, let's wait a bit longer until the recovery is assured. the constant debate is going to add some uncertainty. >> is that janet yellen's biggest risk? >> my personal view is the fed's policy is not in the danger of going too early. it faces the danger of going too late. the u.s. recovery is more firmly established that many investors in the market think at the

moment. is also for u.s. prices higher. my preference would be earlier moves. i am not a policy maker. will monetary policy that is -- myn the united states view is half-year or one year out. it will be firmly established independent of whether they will move earlier later. what is the impact on europe and on the competitiveness of europe? that is where i see some additional impact. >> everybody has their sense of timing on this. something thek is markets are not pricing and. the elegant -- the elephant in the room is litigation risk. if you listen to my interview

earlier, it is simple. you need sovereigns to jump on board to make mario draghi's policies were. >> we have a lot to get through in terms of the fed. nice hotel. this is right up in the hills behind zürich. it is pretty amazing. privacy is key. over 200 family offices from around the world. europe is trapping -- trumping the u.s.. billionaires, 155 new ones. $7.3 trillion. they come together and they talk. what an amazing forum.

talking to one another, doing deals and coming up with ideas. europe trumps america for billionaires. good news all around. much.nk you very edmund -- and to went. -- edwin. the great rotation has started. another great month in september for bonds. i think it is a little bit premature. from what we said about janet yellen, she will stay on hold for quite a bit longer. it is all about the employment situation in the u.s. and there is no wage growth. underemployment is still rising.

on top of that, the labor partisan -- participation rate is lower that it has been in decades. all of that will keep wages and check. that is what she is betting on. on the inflation picture, food prices are very low. if one of those two were to kick up, maybe she would have a bit more of an issue. >> your strategy -- you would be buying bonds? >> i think the selloff is wrong. go -- rs don't want to >> why not? valuations? the historical precedent? i think it is the aftermath of the financial crisis. it still hangs over all of us.

a lot of investors are holding a lot of money in cash and if they are not holding money in cash, they are holding it in bonds. u.s. cash levels of households in deposits are higher than they have ever dan as a percentage of gdp in 20 years. >> do think there is a point to which that changes? if you are sitting there in cash and thinking what will i do now, your opportunity is bigger in equities. talk about the inflation story. talk about where we have come from. the opportunity has got a be bigger. -- has got to be bigger. yields do not go much lower than where they are now. >> i think they can go a bit lower. stocks are words that. oil and gas has been under

pressure with brent down 15%. they are starting to bounce. about corporate credit? is at the halfway house questio? you talk to guys in the credit markets and they are getting a little nervous. >> the high-yield market has to be worried. we have had five years of the high-yield bond market. we are at the point where people are buying all sorts of issues, which normally would not get away. a record few numbers of conditions. some of the yields have spread. frankly, i would rather go to equities.

of what willu make happen with the market here in europe? mario draghi cannot get traction with the scale of the economy. as an investor, can i get in on a trade? room for quite some time -- the guerrilla in the room for quite some time. is there a way of making that trade work? >> whatever comes onto the market will be pretty much instantly. you have to look at who will be issuing those asset-backed securities. you have to be in equity holder. that is the problem with the bond market. many areas of it are a liquid -- illiquid.

>> always nice to see you. joining us from asset management. i want to show you one stock that is on the move this morning . it will spin off its material sciences division. ?hat is that doing to the stop the conglomerate discount is starting to unwind a little bit. we will see you in a moment. ♪

>> welcome back. let's talk about bayer. the company has announced plans to shed its plastics business and focus entirely on life sciences. let's bring in hans nichols. he joins us from berlin. what are they up to? how much could this unit be worth? >> $10 billion is what analysts value this unit at. we will get a real sense for what this plastic business is about. they are clearly wants to be er trulyused -- bay wants to be more focused on pharmaceuticals. , they will bet

left with pharmaceuticals and some seed and crop businesses. arechallenge is if you just waited on pharmaceuticals, you are no longer a chemical unit. you have to be dependent on new drug development. that is a risky proposition. it can also be a very lucrative one. >> trading up just over 4%. details of thece first of eight of its low cost loan programs. much ofquestion, how the 400 billion euros will be taken up by the bank. of expectations, what

are they? where is the market thinking we will be? marketrvey showed the expects the take-up of 150 billion euros from today's announcement. yesterday, the ecb's preferred measure of inflation expectations hit a record low. an indication that the market does not expect this to be a major game changer, may be expecting some additional support. >> that is what inflation will be starting five years from now. attentionems to pay to it. how this interacts with other things, the ecb has a whole bunch of policies.

it has the bank stress test story. interact withight those policies? >> the other measures complement this in the sense the recent rate cut will write the funding cost the lowest it has ever been any announcement that the ecb will be buying asset-backed securities suggest to banks that if they loan out this money, they will securitize those loans. in terms of the asset quality review, the results of which we will have shortly, this is a bit of an unknown. worry if they will be sting the tightest if they are seen -- if they will be stigmatized if they are seen borrowing through this program. that might deter banks from borrowing today. >> fascinating to watch and we will cover it a little bit later

on. i guess you have to drive the demand story as well. david powell joining us from bloomberg economics. ♪

>> welcome back you are watching "on the move." i am guy johnson. in 30 minutes into the trading day. sense of looking for a direction you will not get one from the equity market. a few stocks on the move that generally not doing a great yield. our european business correspondent is caroline hyde. she is at the touchscreen. >> i will be talking about the sexy world of pumps and compressors. try to contain yourself. they might not float your boat but maybe $6.5 billion in sales will.

sulzer is on the rise. the reason they want to build together is they will bring together the world of humps with the world -- pumps with the world of compressors and turbines. tap intod be able to what is a booming industry of shale, oil and gas development. unconventional types are building the stock. bayer rises again. 4.1%. this is potentially a new shares sale. plastic is the material science unit that will be spun off. material science unit will potentially be sold into the market. they have been looking into options since april. it will all be

life-sciences and drugs that are humans, and crops. crop chemicals and farmer as bayer is up 4%. on the downside, one of the biggest laggards is heidelberg cement. heidelberg is significantly exposed to europe. they say the trend is looking greek -- bleak. those are some of the stocks to be aware of, let's talk about the headlines. scotland is voting today on a referendum for independence. an ending would see of a union that has lasted more than three centuries. the federal reserve is sticking with its plan to keep interest rates near zero for a considerable time.

as unemployment and inflation approach their targets. they say it could take to the end of the decade to reduce its $4 trillion balance sheet. the european central bank will announce the results of its first targeted lending program. it is hard of a package that mario draghi says will reduce the balance sheet. we will see offers ranging from 100 billion to 300 billion euros. let's get more perspective on the ecb easy policies. that stick to our conversation. has somek europe stability risks and the central bank has to be careful. the central bank is buying a broad set of assets in the market always distorts all prices and favors in particular the prices for phonic -- rod

asked that they buy in a targeted fashion. reserves are being transferred to the central bank boss credit sheet, it is a risk. mario draghi has been debating with germany and france in the government is whether any potential losses are backed by government guarantees. double --e a war and warrantable case that would say that if france is on his back thereically speaking, is a chance for fiscal latitude? >> i don't think there is only if you are in a favorable starting position. the attitude at the moment is that governments are focusing on fiscal expenditure and not fiscal consultation, and my view is not the right roach.

-- approach. i don't see that. what we need is much less fiscal expansion and more reforms. come back toot gross with quick wind. everyone is looking for easy fixes. europe has to do the hard work, do the reform and as a result we will regain gross. without the growth foundations would be short-lived and unsustainable. think it is the right thing to go for. of ubs. the chairman he could have been in mario draghi's chair but decided not to. he certainly wanted to, but he didn't. let's talk about one of the other big stories. the roadshow is over but the

journey may have just begun for the chinese online retailer alibaba and its investors. the company will price its ipo later today and it is on track to be one of the biggest in history. ryan, you were on the roadshow yesterday, in terms of the questions people are asking, what are they? >> we have been to nearly all the investor meetings over the last two weeks. one of the concerns you hear is the issue of corporate governance. it is twofold. people are concerned that it is just 30 partners that will determine the majority of the board. 2011, there was one incident when alibaba transferred alley pay -- ali pey to a company controlled by jack the founder of alibaba. they came to an agreement but it underlined -- underscored the

issue that if you aren't on board with what the board is doing, you have to resort to legal recourse. that is not easy. the second issue is that this is one of those variable interest entities, or vie's which you sometimes hear about. the chinese have been using them since 2002 lift on u.s. stockings changes -- stock exchanges. is that the control over the underlying assets of the company to a board or management of the company itself. this is something that mark mobius was talking about yesterday. theou have a beef with company you have to go to court in china to challenge it. not is something that might

be possible. you don't have a good chance of succeeding. one of the reasons why hong kong there, u.s. ipo investors appeared ready to pick it up as well. when they look at the price to earnings, the future earnings relative to its peers, like the other chinese tech companies, they think it is a bargain. >> a bargain. there are conservatives around theaba and concerns about corporate structure and whether or not we will see a repeat of the pitfalls. let's talk about those issues. --will talk to philip that's philip betz. alibaba, you look at the opportunity and the press. that exists out there.

i buy the stock i don't get to control my money. i'm handing responsibility. in terms of risk and opportunity how do they balance out? >> i think overall you are looking at a successful company with a long track record in e-commerce which is probably the best way to monetize the internet. exposure to china. it would be hard to ignore the fundamentals of a strong growth story. >> a strong growth story. how do i balance that with concerns of corporate governance? do i have to apply a discount of the stock and say i have to get on board, i need to be exposed. we will apply a slight discount to the stock. >> maybe you take a different view which is to say, perhaps i don't come in at the ipo and i watch how the markets get used

to this play and see what discount the market applies, then come in three months, six months or 12 months. of us know howe the market will take such a big company with slightly different vehicles. >> this corporate governance issue is not unknown in the tech sector. you can look at google and other companies to be aware of the fact that there are different rules for this sector. andanies are used to it investors are used to it. does the investor -- does the discount get smaller? >> the tech sector is everything different. history of very strong founders leading successful companies. it is a difficult category. if you look at most of the big successful internet or software companies, they are typically whoby strong founder-ceo's

like to make decisions and a market that changes quickly. if jack myers is a proven leader, his managing directors have done good things. it is a good company with huge exposure which will grow. >> that is the upside. is that upside big enough? number of money to apply to the tech sector, do i start spilling my other holdings? how does it stack up? weke all ipo's have seen people learn lessons from coming in too early, and there is excitement around it. i think that is the thing people need to think about. the timing of whether you do.

if you have got investments and amazon or ebay or google, which are all very western, then i think taking a piece and putting alibaba, itay like is the bellwether for china. if you do what exposure to china this might be a sensible way to do it. >> philip nice to see you. philip letts. will continue the conversation on alibaba and the next hour. what else of we got here for you? >> the five biggest changes you will want to understand about apple's operating system update. is ios8 worth the upgrade?

>> welcome back you are watching "on the move." the ninth annual greek roadshow is underway in london. back in the u.k. a new whole. -- poll. now is constantinov

anapoulos. he is attending the roadshow. good morning to you. i want to talk about the company and i want to talk about your opportunity in the future. you are the first of the greek ceo's that we have hear this warning. i'm honored that you're here. i'm fascinated by the politics of greece. i spent a long time in athens during the financial crisis covering the story. the rise caught people by surprise. it has not gone away. the latest numbers point to it forming the next government. as a ceo in london trying to sell greece, our investors concerned? are you? he is talking about economic policies that could cause disruption. >> greece has been the original

democracy. centuries living with multiple voices and opinions during that is our history. whatever the politics will evolve, i think people will vote. view, iusiness point of think the prices will go on without any end to government. >> doesn't make it an instability to investors? you like knowing what is coming down the pike at you. can i expect more instability from greece? it has been more stable of late. people have started to get a more positive view on what is happening. is that train coming off the rails? -- any changety

has instability. the instability in greece comes from europe, it is not a local instability. well, greece will go better. >> let's talk about your company. the opportunity is what over the next few years? i'm an investor watching this program, what is the story? >> the story is simple. as many other sectors, the gaming sector has a big consolidation. big change. the lottery sector and the casino sector are merged. sector and this is the new thing happening in the global industry.

that says there are bigger opportunities in size and this for the incumbent vendors is good news. where is the opportunity in the casino sector. us talk about a bigger opportunity. stillk the opportunity could work. interactive and this will be the future of our sector. but it will be medium to long-term. the casino iserm, a combination of the sectors and will bring values to the companies from cost-cutting and cost savings. and bigger markets. do you find the talent you're looking to for when it comes to online increase, that we spent a

while looking at startups, and getting the sector going, what is the gene pool looking like in greece? small startups that will provide opportunity? do you have what you need? >> the internet is a global that in everyfind place on the planet. for greece, the gaming sector is a developed sector in greece. we have been running big lotteries for many years. one of the biggest in the world. there are a lot of people dealing with the gaming sector in greece. >> nice to see you, thank you very much. ceo joining us on the move. back in a couple of minutes.

>> now with all of the hula blue -- hullabaloo, you may have missed the fact that apple released ios 8, the operating system. >> ios 8 isn't as much as a break from the pack as the

previous generation. that one in traduced a new design. the changes in eight are more functional and less anesthetic. in the past when you got a notification that someone had e-mailed or text at you, you had to read the alert then open the app then find the message then replied. respond withinn the notification its self. it works really well and allows you to get back to people quickly without interrupting whatever else you are doing. such as android and blackberry, apple's now has a keyboard that predicts words as you type. apple says the system can learn your writing style and make suggestions. would the suggestions come up faster. when you have a bar of words

above the keyboard you limit the amount of visible screen to type on. you can always turn it off. you can now record your voice and send it to someone as a text area which may seem silly. isn't that what the phone was for? it makes a lot of sense. i will be there in five minutes. for the kind of phone calls that i make, this is going to replace a lot of them. apple's mail app has new swiping features which are pretty nice. you can perform several mail functions without opening an individual message. importantly, apple finally seems to have gotten search right. gmail's app for was soecause apples

loudly, this may have me coming back. if your device is plugged in and you can activate syria with your voice. just say, hey series. apple's competitors have had this for a while. this is useful for the car. some of these features sound familiar it's because they are. we have seen among competing devices in the past. apple has never shied from taking an existing technology, refining it and then including it. as for the question, should i read -- upgrade? remember the rule. the first version is likely to have hugs. if you can hold out, apple pokes out -- puts out an update in the coming weeks. >> bloomberg television will be back. " isll be back, "the pulse

next. see what moment.

>> decision day. we will take you. the journey begins. announcing the result of the and and lending program hour. we speak to weber about the ucb and the fed. -- ecb and the fed. >> this is the paul's.