back of the ebola epidemic. this as the c.d.c. looks for exponential growth. and this bull market is awash in animal spirit. alibaba adds fuel to the fire. good morning, everyone. this is "bloomberg surveillance." we're live from our world headquarters in new york t. is wednesday, september 24. i'm tom keene. joining me, scarlet fu and adam johnson. adam, we could do a six-hour "surveillance" today, we've got that much news flow. >> it's incredible. >> i'm glad you took the helicopter today to get through the traffic. >> it was the only way to get through the traffic. it was mind-boggling yesterday to get around. german business confidence overnight lined more in forecasts. here in the u.s., we get the weekly mortgage application numbers. but new home sales at 10:00. >> and a new importance, i would suggest, on home sales. >> after the existing home sales took an unexpected drop in august too. >> i think we've seen three months of kind of squishy --

>> this jobs report, not this friday, but a week from friday. >> speaking of home and home sails, k.b. homes reports rpgs at 8:30 this morning, and then bill resorts at 4:00. a lot of news items here. president obama addressing the you know general assembly at 3:00. we are also going to hear speeches from u.k. prime minister david cameron, french president francois hollande. they're still not in the coalition, the french. panese prime minister abe, iran's president and iraq's president. >> we should explain to people that you can stand in the afternoon here on fifth avenue in the traffic, because it's not moving, and one cross street will be going, six black cars with a new york police officer siren going off stuck in traffic, and there's another one six cars away from you going the other way. you don't know who's in the cars. >> that's because they're also shuffling between the clinton

global initiative and the united nations. >> so&there are policemen everywhere. i was practically accosted by a new york police officer yesterday because i was trying to cross park avenue in a suit carrying a couple of books as though i present a threat, because i wasn't walking in the crosswalk. just recognize what you're dealing with here in new york. >> it was probably a conservative police officer. they'll be with us in the 7:00 hour. >> before we get started, let's pose this twitter question, because it wraps all of this together. which global crisis can the u.n. solve? which global crisis can the u.n. solve? tweet us @bsurveillance. >> some quiet amid the geo politics of the moment. equity markets up three. euro-dollar has gone nowhere for a week. crude is worth paying attention to. on to the next screen, if you would.

the dow barely above 17,000. brent crude south, migrating south. we'll talk about this in a second. off the bloomberg terminal, here's gold through the financial crisis. here's the boom. >> wait, that's crude oil, right? >> crude oil, right. >> i made a mistake. >> no, no! >> the chart just looks very different if it's gold. >> here's oil coming down, the recovery in the oil. this is a tight trading range. once again, we roll over here as we have before in the -- a lot of people saying we should get to 80, 85. >> they're saying, yeah, if you take away the risk premium in oil, yes, the fair market value is probably in the low 80's. >> there it is, and we'll fold this in here in a moment as we look at markets. we have looked at the front page. here's scarlet. >> i'm going to pick up where you left off. risk premium, let's talk about the air strikes on syria. u.s. officials say the strikes are just the start of a long ampaign against islamic state.

they say top leaders were just killed. >> in the same way that isil, which became isis, which has became i.s., sort of came out of nowhere six weeks ago, so you wonder about the splirnt groups. >> we show you good footage of air strikes, the distance -- the varied emotions here is right there in the middle, well done. >> along the border. >> bring that up there. >> there's fighting between aleppo on the turkish border. i would say there's three cells of attacks. > yes. >> it is a much broader initiative than before. >> and by the way, a broader coalition. >> good point. the u.s. dropped as many bombs and missiles on isis positions in syria in its first night there as it did the first month

in iraq. >> coming up in an hour, a conversation with a former supreme commander of nato, admiral james, will join us, his thoughts as the dutch and britain consider joining the coalition. our next story, scarlet? >> startling new numbers on ebola. >> startling. >> by january, there could be as many as 1.4 million cases in sierra leone and liberia, assuming there's no extra effort to contain the disease. in fact, ebola cases are expected to double every 20 days unless something is done. this is vastly different than what the world health organization had been telling us. >> which was much more conservative. >> now 21,000 cases by november, 21,000 versus 1.4 million, that's the difference. it's hard to figure out which one to go with. >> it is stunning exponential math in how quickly it moves and deceptively those migrations move. the thing that really got my attention was a 70% death rate in one of the reports, 7-0. and when you extrapolate that into the math, did you from he

dick i can to pandemic with c.d.c. and w.h.o. worried about endemic, where it becomes permanent within these nations. so this is front and center. we'll give a real focus today on "bloomberg surveillance." >> we're going to be joined by dr. anthony fauci. he's going to be joining us in about 10 minutes. make sure you're here for that. they're actually working on a vaccine. i want to talk to him about that. one final point before we move, half the aid workers, about 150, have died. doctors have gone there trying to help, and the doctors are now dying. >> i think we've reached a new level in this world where it has to become a global focus, and certainly president looking at that as well. >> we will discuss that further. i want to get to our last story. tax inversions not stopping some companies. pfizer has talked about an acquisition that would allow pfizer, which is based in new york, to move overseas and reduce taxes. according to people familiar with the situation, pfizer made this approach before the new

rules came out two days ago. >> isn't this just the idea of creating and going business abroad, and if burger king wants to -- >> which is still going ahead with that. >> clearly for a tax advantage, all they got to show is these are growing concerns and they're going to put whoppers in canada for tim horton addition >> they are tightening the rules. it's not like you can't get around it completely. >> i'm also intrigue that had lawyers are telling these corporations to go ahead and do it, which from my point of view, we need to talk to an expert, undermines the notion that the president can unilaterally make changes. in other words do, so without congress. >> yeah. >> that's one of the big questions we need to sort out. >> we will continue to monitor these developments, if any companies tells us anything more. those are front-page stories this morning. >> very good. markets are quiet. they churn, waiting on news. it is a proper moment for various walls to become even higher. russ has seen this before, sell and go to cash, before stocks, bonds or oil.

he's with blackrock. the senior advisor at warburton also wulls this morning. what interesting, odd markets these are. what do you do in the churn of the moment? >> well, it's interesting that we're thinking about 15 on the v.i.x. is being sort of a churn. >> exactly. 20 is normal. >> 20 is normal, so this is an unusual period. i think that markets can go higher, but clearly what's starting to happen are a few things. one, investors are paying more attention to the geopolitical issues as they start to potential al fect the global economy. second, we're getting closer to the point where the fed is likely beginning to change monetary policy. one of the reasons volatility has been as low as it has been is because monetary conditions have been so accommodative. changes and volatility should start to normalize. >> we're going to talk about this, but the idea of the accommodation brings back the animal experts. what is the character of the animal spirits in this market now? >> it's investing not based on

trying to guess, let alone analyze what the future cash flows are going to be, but on the presumption that if i buy, there's going to be somebody who's even more enthusiastic who's going to buy it from me. so taking alibaba up, what, 40% from the i.p.o. price, that's momentum investing. >> does a hitter like you get shares? >> oh, come on, tom. warburton pinkus is the straightest shop in the world. >> we're not even going to ask him. >> well, he's from blackhawk. >> i will tell you my hat goes off to my dear friends at silver lake and general atlantic, who got shares three and five years ago and are having -- now they have to get liquid on those. they have to get liquid on those. >> yes, absolutely. you mentioned momentum investing. we saw how the momentum stocks were real a canary in the coal mine in the broader market. is that the same case this time around? >> it is, and it's an important point. this has been one of the themes that's worked consistently the

last couple of years. momentum works best in a low volatility environment. if every day the market is coming up a little bit, that's a perfect environment from momentum investors f. that's starting to shift, that is much less accommodative to that style of investing, which suggests looking at where's the relative value, and i would argue small cap is not relative value, might be a more perfect way to look at the market going forward. >> terrible television, but i have to tell you, agree with russ. the big question for the market, i think, is when the fed does start to move up. a visit from a momentum to mean inversion. >> large caps up eight, that discrepancy, is it already happening? >> i think you're beginning to see t. now, one of the other things to remember, though, is we've seen a revital in the i.p.o. market, but it's still very narrow. it's either huge, winner take all, internet stocks like alibaba, or it's this very special case of biotech.

biotech is a special case, talked about pfizer, because one of the great phenomenon in the innovation economy has been the complete loss of productivity by the big pharmaceutical companies. they need to buy innovation from the little companies so the little companies go public and the speculation is that they're going to be taken out before you have to find out if the new drug works. >> and we'll discuss this with william janeway later on. we're getting started on "bloomberg surveillance." here's scarlet fu. >> a popular pimco fund draws federal scrutiny. the f.c.c. wants to know if asset prices were boosted to boost returns. investigators have interviewed bill gross. citizens financial raising $3billion in its up up and prices the shares below the marketed range. the u.s. unit of r.b.s. sold 140 million shares at $21.50 apiece after offering them ated fds to $25. shares begin trading today on

the new york stock exchange. and wal-mart will enter the world of banking. the new york times says the retail her offer checking accounts to almost anyone over 18 who passes an i.d. check. they're meant to be low-cost alternatives and should be available next month. that is today's company news. adam? >> scarlet, when we come back, the c.d.c., as we've just discussed, has upped the number of ebola cases t. may happen by january to over a million. it's hard to fathom. dr. anthony fauci is joining us life to discuss from the national institute of health. we'll be right back. ♪

>> coming up -- the electrical engineer for princeton, google

chairman, never has gotten enough credit for the miracle that is google. he's at 11:00 a.m. this morning on "market makers," an important conversation, all going in technology. good morning, everyone. this is "bloomberg surveillance," live from new york city. right now, adam johnson on really a new round, a new bout of news onee bowl a. >> yeah, sure is. ebola could potentially claim more than a million lives. by january, this is according to new data, a new study from the c.d.c., even aid workers are at risk, about 150 health workers have died there. dr. anthony fauci runs the national institutes of health. he joins from us his lab in maryland. a pleasure to have you here. 1.4 million lives by january, it seems hard to fathom. is that actually possible? >> well, it's possible, but the model, the mathematical model that came one figure, a range between a half a million and 1.4 million is really

predicated on no increase in infection control. in essence, not doing anything more than we're already doing, and we already know now from the president's announcement last week that we're going to dramatically accelerate the infection control, as are other countries. although the number is feasible, it's based on essentially no increase in our efforts, which is very unlikely that there will be no increase in efforts. on the contrary, there's going to be a major increase. >> dr. fauci, why hasn't ebola spread beyond africa yet? why is it not in europe, in china? >> well, first of all, it is indigenous in africa. it's in an outbreak now. the reason it's in an outbreak is because the health system there, the ability to contain infection is really very poorly developed. in fact, it's practically dysfunctional, which is the reason why you have that kind of spread, the inability to identify, isolate, and contact

trace. none of us would be surprised if sooner or later someone's going to get infected in west africa, get on a plane, who is well, but still infected. and then when they get off n overin london, paris, new york, and then get the disease and perhaps even infect one or two people. but there won't be an outbreak, because outbreaks occur when you don't have a health system to contain it. >> right. >> so no one really seriously thinks that there will ever be an outbreak outside of that region. >> dr. fauci, you have exceptional abilities on h.i.v./aids and, of course, here onee bowl a. for those of us whose knowledge is reading 20 years ago, how close are we moving from epidemic to pandemic? >> well, a pandemic, as aids is described at, because it's essentially all over the world, i don't think there's any region or state or country that's spared, you're not going to see that with ebola.

ebola is, now, and will continue to be, until we control it, very devastating to the region in africa. but it is extraordinarily unlikely. you never say impossible, but it is close to impossible that you're going to have a pandemic of ebola, where it's just as much an outbreak in chicago as it is in paris. that just won't happen because the he derrick is spread because of the inability to control it with a good healthcare system. >> dr. fauci, last night, the new year jan president -- the nigerian president spoke with bloomberg television. i want to play that now and get your comments. >> ebola positive and tell the world this is not against nigerians. there is no nigerian ebola-positive now. >> is this luck on the part of nigerians? it is the most populated

country in africa. or are they doing something right to prevent the spread? >> well, what the nigerians did, they were able to do very effective contact tracing, and that's what the gentleman was talking about. there was a case introduced a liberia to nigeria, and number of individuals gotten fect who did not know that the person who landed in lagos was infected. but what they did very efficiently is they traced the contacts of the people who came into contact with those who were sick. they isolated them until they found out that they were free of ebola, and then they let them go. so that's one of the most important ways to prevent an outbreak, is to contain it by isolating people who were potentially infected. >> while we have you with us, you are an editor of harrison's bible on internal medicine. want you to explain to our viewers worldwide one of the unique attributes of the

illness of ebola. how do you die from it? what is it like when someone in your household actually has this disease? >> what ebola is, it's a particular kind of virus. it has the capability of infiltrating certain cells, particularly in the g.i. tract and in the mucosal membrane, which allows for profuse diarrhea and vomiting. the major lesion in ebola is a phenomenal loss of fluid. >> right. >> either through diarrhea or vomiting. once that happens, you go into shock. you have he electric right imbalance, and you have complete organ system failure. >> that was fabulous. that really explains how this happens. >> yes. it's a brutal, brutal disease. dr. fauci, thank you for joining us from baltimore, your laboratory there at the national institutes of health. >> be sure to check out the cover story of bloomberg

business week. it is on ebola. ebola is coming, the title. it's on bloomberg.com today. we'll be right back.

>> the morning must read is from a week ago. it's timely given what has happened in the last two days. the air strikes on syria. we seem to be setting out on an uncertain mission with unclear objectives with unreliable allies, some of that is inevitable, because foreign policy is usually conducted in a fog, but i'd be more reassured in the white house could at least locate its mean on the map. very telling, and gven where we

are, fighting this group called the group we only just heard about as well, because they're posing a threat in terms of possible attack on the u.s. >> came out of nowhere. the chief investment strategist, how is it markets can make new highs almost every day amid the fog of foreign policy? >> i think there are a couple of things. it goes back to extremely accommodative monetary policy, but the second issue is so far this has not affected the oil market. we've seen oil pull back the last couple of months. in my view, the market will start to pay attention to the middle east. when you see a reaction, oil, which affects the real economy. >> and with oil now as tom was just showing, what was it -- just 97. iron ore down. >> the interesting thing on brent, you haven't seen any effect in the southern production, the production in the kurdish region. longer term, you're expecting a big ramp up in production from iraq going from three million barrels a day up to eight million. if that doesn't materialize longer term, that will affect

supply. >> obviously that certainly hasn't happened yet. the i.e.a. has been scaling back its global demand forecast. >> i agree with you, adam, that oil is the place to watch here for any linkage into the markets. speaking of a linkage, it is our summer of discon at any time into a busy september. nicholas will join us in support of a path of peer, his new book. he's a credit being of the president of the united states. we'll have much more for you. good morning. stay with us. it's "bloomberg surveillance." >> good morning everyone.

it is gorgeous and cool in new york city. right now would have been cool. it is a quiet new york city which is about to be completely destroyed by the mother of all traffic jams.

with u.n. meetings, the president and the first lady. let's get to our company news. >> sales of the latest iphones are alive and well you're in nevermind the fact -- alive and well in china. nevermind the fact that they are not available in stores. the market is driven by an inventory shortage. tom i know you said you saw that with people lighting up. sisi $7.3 million is how much oracle is paying allison. -- ellison. allison's salary has been one dollar since 2011. forbes says that dr. dre is this year's hip-hop cash king.

fromof his money coming apple's $3 billion purchase of beats. do some real critique here about this transaction. places.er what is going on with this deal? downd are they shutting beats music or not? >> i will say that i bought the new in -- whatever they're buds or- your -- ear bugs, whatever. >> you have your year on this here. this is what you do. the intersection of tech and entertainment. >> there are two different things here. attempt to extend the franchise at a time when nobody

knows what the next big thing will be. you have lots of bets. the second which is an interesting phenomenon is the way that a select number of big companies have been trying to learn how to bring in innovation from the outside. in the drug business it is easy you are buying a molecule. in the tech business is harder because you are bringing in people who have a market vision as well as the technology. nobody knows whether it will work. the guys who have done the best is not apple, it is google. android, almost every innovation hits the algorithm. phenomena and a story to discuss. let's hear from your idea of innovation at some of the softer fields. always a bull market and there

are make a deals. will be no different from 68 to recall to 94 yesterday and even further. alibaba signals the end, middle or beginning of this bull market. you and i have seen this so many times. is it just history repeating? >> i do think that what is different in this internet economy -- this is maybe the fourth new economy in 250 years. this internet economy has no friction. world isman said the flat, the world is remarkably without friction areas the number of markets where winner take all can take place is much bigger and it includes china. misunderstanding or miscalculation of the innovative benefits of the cloud?

adam knows better than me, talking about cloud. all my radar is up, should it be? >> the radar should be up for a couple of different reasons. what is taking place today is what took place with electricity 100 years ago. it is disappearing. it is becoming plug in the wall and don't worry about the infrastructure or technology or protocols. you just get electrons. first you have to have a generator and to know how to connect it to a grid, now that is disappearing. the cost in time and effort and money in getting into the market is disappearing. icond, any process, and this give credit to m.i.t., any process and be codified. it can be turned into an algorithm that becomes the basis of a service that can be delivered without friction.

whether someone will pay for it? interesting question. business models for services that don't lend themselves to advertising. >> this is my quote of the day. this is a friction free economy of innovation. uber towhat has enabled bypass taxi limousine commissions? >> it is friction free economically but not politically. uber is going to have to learn how to live with the ticket -- if rent regulatory regimes. uber is doing great in new york. the medallion cabs are still in business. that in the times medallion cabs are still going at $1 million a copy.

but it is respecting taxi laws. that will be different in each city. >> who do you invest in? we can't invest in uber. you going to something like alibaba? no investment advice for people in the public market. uber isn't the public market. two things in the private equity venture world. , the only an earlier way to do that is spray and pray. lots of little bets on lots of little one of these. these are the darwinian hopeful monsters and one of them turns into uber. >> you can't do that. >> bill said something interesting which goes back to before. why are people so excited about alibaba? it is a slow growth world.

the u.s. is stuck at 2% the global economy is not gone as fast as it used to. if you can buy a company where there is organic growth not dependent on an economic upswing, that is valuable to investors more than the late 90's. you had that rising tide lifting a lot of ships. that is not the case today. that growth is harder to come by. alibabawing that, did mark the top of the market? note is the top company in the u.s. a lot of ipos didn't want to go ahead until they saw alibaba do this. indicative of a market willing to take risks. the market is not cheap but it is not nearly as overvalued as 1999. >> it's important to note that

part of the risk with alibaba's political. with this structure of back to back and relationships which are subject to whatever the chinese authorities say -- this is a complicated way to play exceptional growth. there are risks that are not economic. >> this conversation will continue at 10:00. willschmidt from google join and there is a lot to talk about. ♪ >> from the mediterranean sea to

curtis stan it is the turkish border. there are many places on the turkish border with hundreds of thousands of refugees coming over from an embattled syria. this morning, not these images but to the west the focal point of battles as the kurds take on the islamic state to read the dutch and the british considering joining the coalition. a market somewhat immune to geopolitics. the euro dollar goes nowhere.

oil goes south. 91.37. let's get to our images for the day. in syria this is a dramatic picture. a fighter jet falling out of the sky. it was hit by the israeli military after it crossed a cease-fire zone. >> this is completely separate from coalition forces. to, theally speaks cacophony of what is happening. there are so many factions in syria. number two. india -- this is a video. india placed a satellite into mars orbit. it is known as the mars orbiter mission. with only $75 million. >> you spend that on martinis in

a weekend. >> it begs the question why we are spending so much money. but the prime minister is very happy with that, you can see him applauding. the only other nation to put something into the orbit of mars. mavin going around as well. the first look into the upper atmosphere of mars. , andtional pride in india a lot of yankee pride. >> he's running away from scarlet demanding an autograph. he is winding down but ending up a seventh inning hit with the baltimore orioles. not enough for the yanks to win it. >> he will play his final game

at yankee stadium tonight. he's been on his farewell to her for a couple of months. he has amassed a huge buildup of gifts. kayak, golf, a clubs, a trip to italy. swag fromrth of opposing teams. scott of bloomberg news talked to a tax accountant. and found out how much he would oh in taxes. $16,000. >> for these reputed gifts. that's two innings of work for derek jeter. he was pay $12 million and over his career $265 million. this is not the way mickey mantle went out is it? >> i don't remember but i read 1932 got ruth in

$100,000 and the president of united states got $80,000. he asked him, you got paid more than the president, he said i had a better year. the yankees give anything to babe ruth at the end? >> a monument at center field. >> derek jeter would get that too. --ore his final home game >> do you want to move on? >> know i love this. the yankees gave him a check for $220,000 for his foundation. >> here is the new york post. jeter'sees are selling game socks. >> put up your yankees stink. i put mine up upside down. >> this is my world.

i have to straddle. >> good thing you are between us. >> you can root for the san francisco giants starting monday. >> he will be in san francisco live? >> at the game. >> he is a san francisco giants fan. we will come back and talk to ross about equity markets. he likes mega-caps.

>> bloomberg "surveillance." the united states meets in new york city, which global crisis

can the u.n. solve? our twitter question of the day, which global crisis can the u.n. effect, if you will? >> nicholas kristof a severe critic of the president. time for a correction. scarlet fu. pas by tonightlast game is not -- >> thursday. and another one. babe ruth was tossed out by the yankees. the braves took him. remembereddefinitely for the red sox. >> those are the corrections for the day. today single best chart

is for gallo at rbs in london. investors are focus on divergent monetary pads but they're still expanding their balance sheets. i like this chart because it tracks the central banks's assets by gdp. -- by value, not by gdp. china there bank of as well. seeing the slowest growth with a gentle tilt higher. the easing is one you want to walk for because it has been shrinking. >> shrinking among all the problems. china's idea that central bank balance sheet was so much larger than everybody else. >> i question the transparency of that gray zone in the chart. the interesting thing is the red pairgetting ever wider draghi is challenged.

it would be the white bar and the yellow bar combined. >> is is what we do with our 401(k)s and the money? >> it certainly does. we talk about these divergent monetary policies. they look like diverging economic outlooks. you have a different view. >> this exactly it. the last five years have been about central banks doing the same thing. what you see more of now more of and others extending their balance sheets. the bank of england is going a different direction. this is important and it is a spec tackler chart but not all banks are created equally. is, because of the reserve status will have more of an impact. >> talking about fixed income. onanted to get your take

some comments from the intellectual conference. julie robertson saying there is a battle that will end in a bad way. overvalued.onds a lot of people calling for the end of the bond rally. it has not happened. >> certainly bonds are expensive, but the reality is that there are deflationary forces, productivity and technology, that are keeping rates down. one thing that is interesting is you see these ultralow rates in europe. yields at 1%. jgb at .5%. this is exhibiting downward pressure. >> i remember bill janeway .ooking at inversion prices let's look at iron, this is iron ore 62% which is this rollover and one of the great metrics for china. are we going to look back at

that chart and five years and say why didn't we see that coming russian mark >> some people will say they have seen it coming beginning with larry summers. the notion that we are persistently underperforming relative to the capacity of the economy or growth and that that will feed act to reduce the potential for growth. one thing that goes with this chart. we have spent the last five years since the first takes stimulus bill in response to the crisis, totally relying on central banks. this isn't just a diversion of economic conditions version of ideology. >> i'm going to suggest an optimistic tone versus what i hear from bill gross which is more cautious and subdued. those are the tensions you're faced with every day. there are people saying things are great and others saying no way. >> the two may not be as

diversion as you think. in reality you can have a strong market and one of the reasons it has been strong, in the context of a subpar economy. there are side effects that of help. subpar means low inflation and low interest rates. wages have been slow and margins have been flatter. this is a good recovery for wall street. central-bank action has helped. >> exactly where we are going is to recognize that the drive it sector has been in the u.s., europe and japan, underperforming. final demand hasn't in there. consumer demand, people are still deleveraging. that is exactly the time in these conditions when the government can borrow cheap and invest long-term and generate jobs and demand. what is not happening and that's why we have failed big-time. >> where a bowtie .

make a hat trick. i'm looking at the yen 1.08 16. coming up a conversation with admiral sous vide us.

likes the british and the dutch consider joining a coalition as kurdish forces fight islamic state forces. president obama must fight -- break the back of the ebola virus. forthe liberal manifesto not talking, but doing, creating good in this uncertain world. good morning, everyone. this is "bloomberg surveillance" live from our world headquarters in new york. it is wednesday, september 24. joining me are scarlet fu and adam johnson, and our guest host this hour, nicholas kristof. let's get to our morning brief. >> overnight, business german confidence declines. we just found out that the weekly mortgage application numbers dropped about 4%. we will get new home sales at 10:00. that is the one you want to watch.

earnings, jb holmes, speaking of home sales. -- kb homes, speaking of home sales. they report today at 4:00. and president obama will be addressing the general assembly at 3:00. we will also hear speeches from u.k. prime minister david cameron, french president francois hollande, shinzo abe, rouhani, and for odd massoud. >> oil is really on the move today. everything else is relatively quiet. a breach of 90 would be a big deal. we need company news. a popular pimco fund is drawing federal's scrutiny. the sec wants to know if they artificially inflated asset prices to boost returns. investigators have interviewed bill gross.

andng $3 billion in its ipo shares priced below the estimated range at rbs. the shares begin trading today on the new york stock exchange. and walmart enters a world of banking. begin offeringll checking accounts starting next month to almost anyone over 18 who passes an id check. the accounts are meant to be low-cost alternatives to traditional bank checking's. -- bank checking. >> the united kingdom reconsiders joining the coalition against the islamic state, this of course, after the scotland vote. -- souvitis isse with us. in the aircraft above

syria or iraq, or in the persian gulf and the red sea, can we fight this for from a distance? >> i think initially, we can launch strikes, as you see. the key will be to get roots on the ground. there may not be huge numbers of u.s. boots on the ground, but we will have to bring coalition partners into play and we will have to arm the. from thee and arm north and the south and put isis under a three front war. >> it is really about the united states with modest assistance from others. with your experience, what form of a coalition is this? as the nato commander, i led the coalition in afghanistan and the coalition in the bf. i talk about it in my book

"accidental admiral." the big key to leading a coalition is patience. not all coalitions are created equally in terms of what they will trip -- they will contribute. you've got to be respectful of different cultures, what different capabilities bring, and moved at a time to get the best of each country forward. >> is this a sick carrying conflict or -- a sectarian conflict or a sectarian war? backdropck -- the big in the middle east today is the divide between sunni and shiite. is creatingt, isis a lot of strange bedfellows. people are working together from both sides of that divide. you see iran attacking and you states attacking as well. >> could we see a coalition that it involves saudi and jordan and

kuwait? >> i would not go so far as to say they will be coordinated, but each side will be aware of what the other is doing. they will work in parallel. they will work so we do not end up with a crossfire. at the moment, operating in parallel, but not joining the coalition. >> we have learned that the u.s. is bob -- dropping bombing -- dropping bombs and missiles on the islamic state in syria. we have been told we should prepare for a long campaign. and it will wax and wane and the intensity will shift as well. give us a sense of what will happen. >> i think it is going to be long. as will see waves of strikes we gain intelligence. that is from overhead satellites, from observing chatter on cell phones, from looking at the internet. hopefully over time, with boots on the ground to put lasers on precise targets.

that will come and go. the main effort will be training ground forces. iraqi security forces in the south, peshmerga in the north, and the syrian opposition in the west. and will take months possibly over a year to get them in the field. >> admiral, what a mess, simply what a mess we are in. what does our pentagon, our soldiers and our sailors, what consistency in leadership and governance do they need from the white house and the state department? >> i think you hit the right word, which is consistency. we need to recognize that the islamic state does present a significant threat to us as a nation, to our allies in europe, particularly turkey right on that bird -- that border. i think our soldiers, airmen, and earnings will stand up and be counted just as they have in afghanistan and in iraq, but they need consistency of policy to know that we will do what needs to be done to defeat this

islamic state. >> in your recent editorial in the guardian, you say in order to dismantle guard this -- to dismantle isis, we must not blink. can you define what that means? >> it means playing the long game. the strikes are a start. it means, unfortunately putting boots on the ground. hopeful is -- hopefully, many of them coalition booth -- boots. and it means addressing the missions in the region that make young men decide to become jihadists. >> admiral, thank you for being with us this morning. we greatly appreciate your time. "theew book will be accidental admiral." many topics to speak of, but none more so than the celebration of the path that appears. they kept their marriage

together during the writing of this book. have the children suffer? -- we are doing a book tour. our daughter is a senior. she is delighted that the book deal. >> look at the globe and the challenges that we have. i will be honest. this is not a liberal manifesto. you take some real shot at liberality, don't you? what you want is to be effective. the business world has metrics, careful evaluation to get the most bang for your buck. and the humanitarian world focuses too often on being well-meaning. if it is important for a business to get bang for the buck, it's that much more important for an organization trying to help people. >> how do you measure success? >> you look at outcomes. instead of just looking at input and how much money we have raised and how much books we have supplied, we want to look at what they do. do they get to the kids who

should be reading them? and where they affected? -- effective? we think that charities should be moving in that direction as well. and they are, but not there yet. >> too often, in trying to address poverty in this country, we focus on adults or teenagers. the place where you get bang for your buck, where you get leverages early childhood -- is early childhood. you get this across to ngo's? excuse me, they both answer. cheryl, please. it really focuses on effectiveness. we do criticize charities in the sense that we do think they can do a lot more than what they are doing. look, they dedicate their lives to being on the front lines. we find that admirable. but they need to figure out a way to focus on effectiveness

and one of the ways to address the major problems we have in this country, such as inequality, is to spread opportunity. to do that most effectively, you start early and get bigger bang for your buck. when you start with one-year-olds or three-year-olds. to get into this a little bit later on, but certainly, the united nations and other big ngo's need a little help as well in how to be effective. that brings us to our twitter question of the day. we are asking you all, which global crisis can the united nations solve? it's got so many on its plate. what should be priority? tweet us. ♪

>> this is "bloomberg surveillance" and i'm scarlet fu here with tom keene and adam johnson. our guest is nicholas kristof. this was written the rig -- a week ago, but timely given with what we are dealing with wisteria. he says this. we started with a fairly narrow

objective against the islamic state in syria expanding those airstrikes. now we have expanded it to a motive front war. about course on and how it links to al qaeda and isis. >> it is linked to the founders russ front -- the al nusra front. attacks inlanned europe or in the u.s., perhaps by concealing bombs in laptops or cell phones. i think it ministration thought it would use the occasion of bombing isis by also bombing them. we don't have great intelligence in syria. but that's what it comes down to. but the last 3.5 years, we've basically -- >> that's what it comes down to. >> the last 3.5 years, we've basically blown it. the president has reversed briefing ofn a

senior it ministration officials it.s in, they talked about >> is this like charades? really as they anticipated between the islamic world and others, but between the sunni and shia world, very much so. there is deep restoration -- frustration throughout the middle east. >> how could wisteria get into a thick carrion war? -- how could serious get into a sectarian war? >> we were right to have minimal airstrikes. you had isis attacking kurds, destabilizing turkey. hurt isis. when people talk about defeating it, i get nervous. taliban't defeated the after 15 years. >> is president obama a

reluctant leader? >> i think he's been a reluctant fora. in many different in ukraine, he has been unable to provide legal assistance to the ukrainian. and with ebola, he's lately done very well. >> we will talk with ebola in a moment. our twitter question of the day, which global crisis and the united nations solve? stay with us. ♪

>> good morning, everyone. i'm tom keene and with me, scarlet fu and adam johnson, and with us, pull it surprised journalist nicholas kristof. >> the two of them won a of azer for the reporting protest in 1989. they have collaborated on four books.

personal acts how of giving can be very effective, cheryl, but what about the clinton initiative? these massive organizations, especially the u.n., how can the be more -- they be more effective? >> these institutions have the power of the pulpit, and they should be setting goals in the way that the u.n. said millennium goals, and it has with early childhood education as one of its any goals, but they can use the pulpit more --ectively cgi is effectively. cgi is one way. they bring together these charities at five for early childhood education. but they can do more and i think it's really important not to just convene, but to spread that out to the world. the u.n. can more effectively harness together all of the charities under a set of directed goals. even so, people are reluctant

to give more money or more attention to the united nations. ted turner, you write about in -- in the book, he shunned a gift. where does the money go? lavish parties and events, but does it move the needle? that's something shed -- that should be given to the u.n., but it's bird -- it spurred activity for years. what do you want to give a charity echo look to see it matches the goals that you have personally. look to see if there is leonardo dicaprio in your index. angelina jolie. i want to encourage you on your courage. a family with a

mother who had a modest handicapped -- a modest handicapped, a club foot. cheryl had no idea my mother had club foot until we were reporting on the book and we were writing about club foot abroad, and my mom said, i think i had that in a baby -- as a baby. but in this country, one in 1000 children are born that way at birth and it gets corrected. abroad, they become beggars and cannot go to school. he cannot walk. >> how do you translate the raging easton -- economic debate over the world of good people, famous or not, who want to apply cash to fix these developing countries? >> i think you can square this circle in a couple of ways. one is, there has to be more account ability on money that is spent.

we have to make sure it is used effectively. and on the other hand, there are some places where money clearly can be used to make a difference. club foot is one example. the u.n., scarlet, you asked about that, clearly, the u.n. is frustratingly bureaucratic and inefficient. on the other hand, since the 1990's, there have been 100 million children saved through various global interventions that could not have happened without the u.n. i think it is fair to be both enormously frustrated with all of the inefficiencies, but on the other hand -- l. help us, nic and shery how do you make the jump between talking about something to acting about something echo there were -- to acting about something? there were hundreds of protest about climate change this week. how do you take all of that will and create action for the u.n.? >> that takes diplomacy. i don't think the u.n. can be

the sole arbiter of climate change. >> will it be effective if the polluters themselves are taking action? >> a lot less effective. you can use a lot of diplomacy, but you need the top dogs like u.s., and definitely the on board. the u.s. seems to be on board for now. it looks like china is coming in. china itself lives in the solution. they know they have to clean it up. and they don't want people at home to go out on the streets in a big way because they cannot read the air they are living in. as thelook at water thought -- the foundational service. cheryl, what did you learn in your research on our charity dollars affecting water to jumpstart all of these other issues? >> around the world, there are actually a lot of very effective

charities that are trying to bring clean water to people. but specifically in china, it's very interesting that the ngo movement did not really start there until very recently, and it started with the environment. they knew 10 years ago they were looking at how the water was filling up with pollution. that is how a lot of the charities in china are becoming much more effective. >> one thing i liked about your book is that you brought up that bill gates, for instance, his most important legacy might not be software, but conquering hunger and disease around the world. he talked about how he got bored because he did not know how it related to him. that is important, how you make these issues relatable to the individual. >> there are some very interesting research by paul slavic that shows that when they are trying to elicit donations, and empathy for a particular cause, always bring specifics. a million people are in poverty. but if you focus on the

individual it... -- it elicits empathy. to put our twitter question to all of you. what global crisis can the u.n. solve? ♪

fax this is "bloomberg surveillance." i'm scarlet fu here with tom keene and adam johnson. we have new numbers from west africa on ebola. the cdc prefixes as many as 1.4 million cases of ebola will be around in the next year. your focus in this week's issue

a bloomberg survey -- of bloomberg businessweek is this take. but the government is bad at everything and we are particularly bad at this. ebola,inds of diseases, hemorrhagic fever, there is no profit in them for pharmaceutical companies. >> because not enough people contract the disease? >> the problem is, nobody needs suddenly-- until everybody needs it. there is no market for it until there is a catastrophe. the government is very bad at figuring out how to make research, which it pays for and is good at, and turning that into actual drugs. we look at the pipeline for z-mapp, the therapy that has been used. it has not gone through clinical trials. that is not an accident. the research grants from nih in 2005, it took those

research grants into 2009, and then it went into what people call the valley of death. drugs that are sponsored by government research money that cannot get turned into an approved fda vaccines and therapies, because there are no agencies that are either funded well enough or have the expertise within the government to march it through the fda process. director -- what about the director working with glaxo about ebola? >> the director has been really good about working with infectious diseases. they do the huge work. that money goes to commercial labs. after the money has been sent, and it is money well spent, nih is not particularly good at moving it forward. there is another company that is supposed to get it through this process. you got research skills, and

then you've got pharma executive skills, which is figuring out how to turn an idea into therapy . >> and marketing. >> yes. there are two agencies to do this, one on the civilian side and one with the pentagon. on the civilian side, you have barta. it takes a billion dollars to get one drug through fda approval. millionudget of $100 per year. >> i wonder if the map is the -- ifost effective way of the map is the most -- i wonder if z-mapp is the most cost-effective way to deal with ebola. there needs to be training to recognize cases earlier, to train health workers to stop the spread immediately. after they did this in uganda, they stopped after one case. i wonder if scarce resources might not be better invested in that kind of program to train health workers in liberia and

sierra leone rather than an unproven drug. >> that is a good point and you are right about that. in the government, they refer to this as gloves versus drugs. do you put together a public health infrastructure or do you use the drug? the problem is, you have to do both. the cdc needs to be better at it when it works abroad, but we also have a pipeline that we need to get better at. >> also, could you use this as an experiment? is an issue of morality here, but you have a lot of people and you can actually try these different approaches. >> perversely, we did run a clinical trial. be possiblyn to effective. not a big enough sample size, but what that definitely has done is taken the drug and moved it into the government pipeline. tony $5just gave a million grant. they will -- a $25 million grant. they will give it to the emergency use authority.

it proved its efficacy in a way. >> rendon, thank you so much with this week's cover story on bloomberg businessweek. it is called "ebola is coming your car coming." is we are bloomberg television and radio, your tablet, television, and at bloomberg.com. our guest this hour, nicholas kristof and sheryl wudunn. >> five other nations have joined the u.s. in attacking the islamic state. president obama will outline the joint mission at 3:00. servedt guest previously in the u.s. foreign office focusing on syria. he joins us now. what are the unique characteristics of fighting isis in syria as opposed to fighting

them in iraq? needs to be part of one conference of strategy. obviously in iraq, the coalition led by the u.s. is working with the iraqi government. it will be working with moderates on the ground to do three things really, effete isis militarily, defeat the root causes -- to defeat isis military, defeat the recall is causeso defeat the root on the ground and then continue that for the long-term. >> you are talking about effectively placing bashar assad -- replacing bashar assad, who has had an iron grip on a country. but that is right. well, he did have an iron grip up until 3 -- >> that is right. well, he did have an nine grip up until three years ago. his country has bred this extremist threat.

the extremist threat has now spilled over into iraq and the region. >> i want to take you back to peter o'toole in the movie "lawrence of arabia." i have seen the map that he saved. the argument at the end where they draw the lines in the middle east. those lines are a fiction. does it really and that the euphrates river and we need some form of new nationhood further east? >> i think you're right, the borders of the moment are a fiction. but that doesn't necessarily mean a fundamental change over the long term. if people get to grips with the problem, we can deal with nationstate as they are. but we need to bring some security back and that will require dealing with the long-term problems that exist. >> it goes back to the crimean war. around --save the day

halfway around the world, it doesn't work, does it? >> there is some sense in which the ottoman timeframe has ended and we are now returning to that time and trying to sort these countries out. at the end of the day, we tried -- we tried passivity. prime minister al-maliki cause the problem almost more than anybody. >> you have the kurds across three nations. , we haveand say, look an artificial construct. let's get the caliphate and then make the borders rational. >> you are jumping so far ahead. the point at the moment is to get a grip of the problem and to see where we are. once we have a grip of the problem, i don't think we are going to be getting into those conversations. going back to one of the things

you said about the west coming in. this is not just about the west sorting this out. i mean, the west does have a particular problem. this is a threat for the west. the vix a miss on the ground are being fueled by people coming from europe and -- the west has a mess on the ground and it being fueled by people coming from europe. president obama said, we cannot help iraq do but it has to do for itself, and presumably syria as well. is that your view as well? >> ultimately, yes, this is about moderate governments on the ground and generating security on the ground. >> just quickly here, where's the seed for moderation within the modern islamic world? c4if you look at syria, the moderation is therefore -- the seed for moderation is there.

it was started by people who was -- who were interested in democracy and human rights. >> former head of the british foreign ministry focused on syria, thank you for joining us. >> our twitter question of the day -- which global crisis can the un's all the echo tweet us. -- can the u.n. salt? ♪

>> good morning, everyone. i'm tom keene. with me scarlet fu and adam johnson. one of the great truisms of the insurance world, everything comes out of hamilton, bermuda. well, maybe not. how about omaha, nebraska to get up -- omaha, nebraska? gets into the complexities of this. but few people in the corporate world would take on war and -- >> few people in the world would take on warren buffett. no love lost between bob benmosche, the former head and warren buffett. last year, he got recruited. i asked bob benmosche how he felt about this recruitment by buffett. >> they took their bitterness

out on aig and wanted to make a big show, we are going to work for warren buffett, and we are above it all and we will really show you boys. and they went over there and, boy, they are really not showing us anything at all. they are competing and they are getting some business. they are putting pricing pressure on some of the industry . but in the end for my disgruntled employees do not like where they are working, we want to make sure they have the freedom to move on someplace else. they chose to exercise that freedom. we do not charge them a huge amount of penalties in the conversation program. i think it's the way the employees did it that was a bit distasteful. >> you mean, calling up berkshire hathaway? >> no, the comments to the press. which would've ended it. i cannot say whether any of them did it. but you don't burn your bridges.

>> you will hear more on this in our special tomorrow night. >> how does warren buffett feel about all of this? >> we put a call in and they declined to comment. there was a cease-fire between the two last year. they said, look, for one year we will not recruit from each other's those companies. let's all settle down. >> wasn't there a recent case where effectively, the court ruled that you cannot do that because you are eliminating opportunity? kristof, the sound like something you would write about in the new york times. but i did not write about it, but you are right, you cannot have these noncompetitive -- >> i did not write about it, but you are right, you cannot have these noncompetitive agreements. >> once an employee wants to leave, they are already out the door. then motion was right. you may as well let them go. -- bob benmosche it was right.

you may as well let them go. >> and it airs tomorrow night? >> at 9 p.m., yes. liu inof course, betty the loop begins at the top of the next hour. >> did you know there is an election the first tuesday in november? we will speak about the midterm elections, the back and forth between shades of conservative and very much less discussed shades of liberal. with less -- with us are sheryl wudunn and nicholas kristof. stay with us. ♪

>> i'm scarlet fu with tom keene and adam johnson. our guest host for the hour, it was her prize-winning journalist, nicholas kristof and sheryl wudunn. they are authors of their new book, their fourth collaborative effort. forecast.grim ebola officials predict the total caseload could approach 1.4 million within four months. the cdc says that could be avoided with better containment efforts. the death toll currently is more than 2800. and fire destroys a memorial to the unarmed missouri teenager fatally shot by a police

officer. it was one of two on the street where michael brown was killed. what how the fire started, you don't know. but by standards said they smelled gasoline. said they smelled gasoline. isia's prime minister working on a satellite to reach mars. than a movie.ss >> nicholas turn off and sheryl wudunn -- nicholas kristof and sheryl wudunn. adults who consider themselves said decade earlier by a nursery school teachers to be curious, verbal novelty

seekers, but not very neat or obedient. jumping to now, what captures your attention on the senate races? >> so much will ride on whether republicans can gain control. i don't think it is so much that there will be new legislation passed, whoever gets control of it. but the stakes are partly dredges. the obama administration has really changed the character of the federal judiciary. that would completely stop. and republicans might be in the position to cripple the affordable care act through budgetary measures. >> this idea of republicans being able to migrate to the middle of take out the low -- middle of the road liberals, is that viable? >> i think it is, depending on the state. everything breaks down

state-by-state. republicans also have to play the immediate term versus the long-term. >> could someone come to the rescue of -- could hillary clinton come to the rescue of the democratic party? i don't think she is going to change the minds of any voters in the middle. in kansas of the democrats stepping aside. but i'm glad you brought up hillary clinton -- >> i'm glad you brought up hillary clinton, because in your book, cheryl you talk about the oppression of women. it seems like there ought to be a lot more visible women than there are. >> absolutely, when you think about women making up 50% of the voters, why aren't there more in the senate and the house? and it's not to say that all women should vote for women, but

affirmative action is not a bad idea. there has been some research that shows that when you get women into the senate or the house, there'll be criticism, but after the initial wave, you will get used to it. >> what is the unique american character that makes this different from so many other nations? >> like germany, for example. >> what is the distinction? >> i think we have to say, look, we are tired of this. >> what our men saying right now that precludes secretary clinton from a relatively easy path to victory? >> it should be a cakewalk, right? >> i'm not saying it is a cakewalk, but what is the unique american care your -- character that you see? >> i'm not sure it is uniquely american at all. a lot of voting americans are from all different cultures. but there is this sense that

women have to step up to the plate a little bit more and say, look, we are willing to sacrifice this one vote just to vote for a woman. even if it was someone like sarah palin, which would have been -- which would not have been the worst thing in the world because you could get used to having a woman vice president. >> one of the other candidates not yet stepping up to the plate , hillary clinton, and it is the subject of my morning muster he. here is what it said. delays -- she survived benghazi and took criticism and came out the other side. >> there is a certain nostalgia

for bill clinton's presidency and the long economic extension of kind of solving problems. that kind of helped her. i don't think in gaza got traction on the left at all. it may even have helped her in the sense that she was being attacked. and there is a yearning for a female leader. >> but it's also important is that she's very capable. she's one of the most successful and capable women we have in government service. >> i would suggest that a large part of america disagrees with what you just said, and that is the challenge. not a publishing enough as secretary of state. but there are a lot of secretaries of state that have not -- >> there are a lot of secretaries of state that have not done as much as her either, and we do not criticize them for that. >> exactly. many women get super criticize just because there are a woman -- because they are a woman. i think the marginal dynamic -- >> what do you mean, marginal dynamic echo >> i think the marginal both -- both are

regional. >> i got to ask you about personal politics. you have written four books together. how much easier whether to write a book for then book one? i imagine you have it down to a science where one person writes one chapter and another write another chapter. how does it work echo >> we actually do write individual chapters. we had to alternate chapters. we had to get the order right. this was easier. >> people always ask us how we marriedto date -- stay when we are writing books together. at the end of the day, if you can raise kids together, it's so much easier to write a book. you can put a book to bed at night and it stays asleep. >> it doesn't talk back to you. you work in midmarket securities and traveling all the time. how do you get this done? >> we do take time off to write the books.

to dovery satisfying something like this. an audio engineer who was recording the audio book of this, he is now starting a new venture because he listened to this. he is audio recording children's kids.s for disadvantaged >> how do you push back with your liberal voice against conservatives who say, i will not read this book? >> actually, this is not a partisan book. really, we are focused on outcomes. of the views that we have on early education, conservatives are supportive of that. we are not trying to take the liberal or conservative side. we are focused on what the best and most effective way is to spread opportunity. >> measurable results. let's get to measurable results without router question of the day. we asked about the global crisis that the yuan can solve. here is one answer.

that was a good answer. the next one, the u.n. should .ackle youth unemployment yes, angry young man is a big source of instability in today's world. and to our last twitter question of the day, the u.n. should be dismantled. if the league of nations all over again. >> i'm sorry, but i don't accept that. it's one person's view, but i don't accept that. we need a place where people can discuss. there may not be a lot of action, but at least they discuss it. >> the u.n. or the league of nations? >> look at what happened with the league of nations. it was totally ineffective. the u.n. has been ineffective in some ways, but at the margin in the humanitarian world, they have saved lives. even interior, 4 million refugees, they are getting -- those kids are getting an education today and not becoming jihadist 20 years from now.

firm looks -- bloomberg surveillance continues on radio. . .

>> good morning. it is wednesday, september 24th, and we are live from bloomberg world headquarters. you are "in the loop," and i am betty liu. aig ceo earlier

this month. bob benmosche is sounding off with warren buffett with some choice words. millstein,g and jim former treasury chief reconstruct restructuring offic. and ebola cases could now reach 1.4 million within four months. the potential cure has set dormant. we will have much more on this exclusive story in a moment. giants are slimming down. coca-cola and pepsico plan to cut down on calorie counts by 20% over the next decade. he detailsing you t on how they can help you slim down. and pentagon calls airstrikes on syria the opening stage of a long campaign against the islamic state. the attacks probably killeme