tv Bloomberg Bottom Line Bloomberg September 29, 2014 2:00pm-3:01pm EDT
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olivia sterns has more highlights from her exclusive in her view. we begin with the protests in hong kong. what are you hearing from your contacts their? >> just to put this in perspective, i does about 2:00 in the morning. pro-democracy supporters are still on the street demanding china and give up elections and -- demand that they give up control and hold elections in 2016. protests have grown larger since the use of tear gas first you sunday. tens of thousands of protesters have essentially shut down central hong kong. the chief executive of the city.
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he told me protesters are nice people, mainly students. he described it as this may land. heonstrators are chanting, said. independent hong kong. he also told me it probably happened tuesday and wednesday night. people are essentially taking the entire week off to show support. also talked to a supporter on the ground in central hong kong. never seenhas anything like it. he says police just started putting out more there are caves. saying they stopped earlier in the day to let the crowd do with they needed to do. more people have hit the streets. he says clearly the police are taking instruction from china to react with tear gas and pepper spray and that is from a different scenario.
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taking very different actions based on what they see. >> talk to us about the economic impact of the situation. >> i have been communicating with several of my sources and hong kong, people in the financial world. an economist for greater china says as the protests break out during the week of the golden week and now spread to shopping areas frequently visited by chinese tourist, the hong kong retail sales will suffer. he already -- also says hong kong's competitiveness is a real concern. he says headlines that hong kong will be overtaken by shanghai means china will no longer use china as a testbed for reform. keep in mind onshore financial trend is becoming more liberalized. starting to lose the advantage of the gateway to china. of business in hong kong.
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he says very little equities. says most chinese companies and not hong kong once. he says this is a situation they will follow very closely and has impact around the world. >> all right. covering the story from hong kong. more on the protests and what that might mean for investors coming up. andor managing director head of research will join me from california coming up in about 10 minutes. turning now to syria. turkish tanks have been deployed along the border with syria after shellfire lead to mortars landing insight turkey. one of the shells handed near a refugee camp. ournnex was the manner view colleague was told about the need to work with united states to combat isis. >> we never did anything which cooperatingt us rum
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with the united states. whoas the united states froze the presidential condition out of 20 plus working group's. the counterterrorism problem protection, which was endorsed and implemented was also frozen. so we would never expect united states to understand where the interest is. thet is widely agreed islamic state cannot be defeated with airstrikes alone. it will take boots on the ground as we say in the u.s.. whose troops of those be -- should those be? it has to be done through the security council in consultation with this. government. everything else would be an
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oppression. >> what should the role the a russia? >> it should be what is the role of russia? russia ine of fighting the islamic state has been in providing efficiently and expeditiously necessary weapons to iraq, syria and other countries in the region who faced terrorist threat. and others.on and we will continue to support them because they must be threat. to counter the >> how close are we to a nuclear deal with a ron? >> i think we are moving in the right direction. how close are we to a nuclear deal with iran? negotiated. being the remaining 5% is where the trouble is. two or three very difficult issues. they are resolvable.
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>> is the fight against isis making it more difficult or perhaps easier to get a deal done? >> iran is the strong opponent of this. to know them and not invite full cooperation is a mistake, just like it is a mistake not to consult with the syrian government. general i believe iran should be more recognized as a regional player. you cannot resolve the syrian crisis and many other things in the region without taking into account iranian interest.
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iran was implicitly left out, which is not helpful. recognize thatns at some point, sooner rather than later, this would have to be recognized and russia should be held as an equal partner in negotiating the securities in the region. me now insterns joins studio. when he spoke to the foreign abouter, he had comments the economy. how concerned is he about international sanctions against russia because of what is going on with the ukraine? >> no question before the salt -- already got going russia was already having troubles with the economy. he said we can survive this. he totally shrugged it off. he said the recession happened
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and we are not going to cry uncle. the real sanction is the price of oil. budget asances it $100 per barrel or about. with her sterns interview with the foreign minister. on "street smart" this afternoon. i am., sugar ray leonard is fact. we will talk to him about the future of ochocinco. and are the days of tyson holyfield. we need another big boxing star. the trouble is ultimate fighting. sugar ray leonard and a lot more about hong kong and bill gross departure from pimco. >> all right. olivia sterns filling in on "street smart" at the top of the
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artwork. getting back to geopolitics. a discovery that could transform russia's oil and gas industry. a billion barrels beneath the sea thousands of miles north of moscow. they may have problems reaching the oil. the partnership with exxon to develop the arctic is in jeopardy intensive russian sanctions. ryan chilcote travel to the site for exclusive interview. move forwarduld even without exxon. inproduction will start here seven years. that is the midrange of my forecast. if the market demands it faster than that, we can speed it up. ofcan you tell me what price oil we will need for return on the investment? i think it will be enough to provide our company with a
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standard return. the mature fields use now around the world are declining. now around the world are declining in this oil is high quality. should give us the kind of return that justifies our investments. i think in 5-10 years we will be talking around 140-$150 per barrel but time will tell. from here? you go this obviously is a joint project. now barred the u.s. government from drilling in the arctic. exxon has to leave here. so what happened next? >> we will do it on our own. attract the necessary technology and different partners who do not have limitations on cooperation.
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but we're not stopping our work with exxon. the project operator is our joint venture with exxon. we are not planning on changing the venture ownership structure. you plan to continue drilling in arctic as soon as next year? >> yes, of course. >> we will continue drilling here next year and every year after that. >> ryan chilcote reporting. coming up, more on the pro-democracy protests in hong kong. a look at the impact the demonstrations are having on the confidence of foreign investment. stay with us. bloomberg television continues in just a moment. ♪
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lex welcome back. more now on the received protests in hong kong. don strives time is a senior managing director at isi and heads the china research team. he joins me now. always a pleasure to see you. china's hang seng index was down nearly 2% is -- today. what is the likely economic impact is these protests continue in hong kong? >> the economic impacts are clearly negative. the most important thing in hong kong is for there to these some stability, predictability in terms of the economic affairs all of the associated issues.
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if these protests last, if you see days and weeks of new stability in trouble, this hurts hong kong and in the long wrong run that will hurt the people protesting. >> you mentioned stability. to foreign investors, the view is not about democracy or the calls for democracy? >> i think there are two issues. part of the people protesting are quite frankly high school do not have enough experience to really understand the long-term implications of the economic system and political system that is in place. and they are a significant portion of this. then there is another body who are real pro-democracy demonstrators and fighters who are unhappy with this system and the way it now works that they
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do not really have the suffrage they thought they were going to have. so it is both of those issues are at play. impactis the economic that is most important to investors. >> in your research you wrote beijing is unlikely to sit idly by and let hong kong establish an independent agenda, which might be destabilizing to the mainland. what kind of agenda are were talking about and how destabilizing might it be? >> the core of the real they want to in 2017 be able to select the candidates and then vote freely for their own leadership. i just quite frankly think that is not a realistic outcome at all. there would be a very important demonstration that elsewhere in
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china. and that's issue was really decided 30 years ago when the handover treaty was established. it will pop the changed in the next week or two. >> the hong kong authorities says dirty fork bank reaches were closed today. if the protest rallies mushroom, could we see a further shutdown of hong kong's banks and the financial district? >> i think it is probably going before it getser there. october 1 is the real holiday. you will see, i think a wider fewnstration, in the next days. quite frankly, none of us know how it will turn out. >> do these protests threaten hong kong's reputation you go to the protest jump to the top of the geopolitical pile that they are now concerned about? many ofe ready have too
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these geopolitical issues on the agenda right now. not at the top close to the top. the real winner in this will be singapore. is a potential economic substitute for much of the financial and economic trade in that part of the world. left.have about a minute last month beijing rejected a proposal for open nomination of candidates for the first-ever leadership elections scheduled for 2017. did the financial markets see the tension coming back in august? >> they should have. we wrote about this. this was literally decided in 1984 with the handover. there was a body of people that they would be able to in fact select their own nominees and have a real vote but the president made it very clear a
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month ago that that was not going to happen. think it will continue to be the position. we do not know how much destruction and carnage will happen in the interim. heim joining us tim from los angeles. always a pleasure to get your perspective and expertise. up next, standing by with the latest on the markets report, and later, ford executives face investors as excitement builds for the latest mustang to hit the road. matt miller will join us live from detroit when we continue in a moment. ♪
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that other industries do not get? >> tonight on bloomberg, a conversation with former president bill clinton. you can see the entire interview tonight at 8:00 and 10:00 new york time on bloomberg television. a reminder, we're one week away from the debut of the new bloomberg politics broadcast. the new show monday, october 6 five :00 new york time. only on bloomberg. coming up on 26 minutes past the
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hour. that means bloomberg television is on the markets. my colleague is standing by. like that is right. stocks trading in the red. getting you caught up to speed on where we are seeing the s&p 500. having the worst week in almost two months for that benchmark. dow jones and nasdaq off i a little over half of percent. talking to you about the corporate stocks we are monitoring. take a look at go pro, shares rising more than 6% after the company unveiled the new camera lineup. on the stockget from $90 to 60 dollars following the announcement. american apparel has named a new interim ceo. scott baker will replace the ceo who had assumed the role temporarily. american apparel appointed a new finance chief as he resigned from the company. that is a look at the top
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>> welcome back to the second line" onr of "bottom bloomberg television. i am mark crumpton. bele it sounds good to strong in the world of currencies that is not necessarily true. michael mckee has the real deal on how worried we should be. exit answer depends on how strong the dollar gets. we talk a lot about dollar euro or dollar yen but what really matters this -- is the impact on trade. this shows the dollar up 3% since the end of june.
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the u.s. economy is not getting much stronger. people want dollars to invest here. the fed is getting closer to raising interest rates. more money in japan or europe where they are cutting interest rates. hurts countries like canada. the biggest impact should be on u.s. exports. they will cost more over seas, reducing demand and that may slow growth. the good news is the dollar is not up yet enough to matter. goldman sachs estimating to hit growth that less than two -- point 2%. inflation may be lower. the price of goods we import, and we import a lot, i'll pay for clothing, cars in the gasoline that goes in them. companies pay less because rall included as well. >> what happens if the dollar keeps getting stronger? >> the damage gets must -- much
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worse. morgan stanley says growth would be have to percentage points lower than it otherwise would. inflation will fall more. gdp will betimates hit a full percentage point. at that point the fed will come into the picture. growth is slowing and inflation falling. will take that into account. that means may be lower for longer. right now the effects minimal but that could change if the appreciation continues. >> michael mckee, thank you. the international monetary fund is stepping up the fight against the evil the outbreak in west africa. the executive board has approved a total of 130 million dollars in additional emergency funding for liberia and sierra leone. joining us is the director of the imf africa department and joins us from the agency
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headquarters in washington. welcome and we appreciate you coming on today. it is almost impossible to put it -- put a price tag on the economics of people love for the purpose of this discussion we will try. the 130uncement of million dollars to fight the announcement, is it enough to stop ebola in its tracks? is to provide support for governments to provide economic stability so we're doing our part to help these countries efforts to mitigate the otherwise more significant fact that the diseases are the having on the economies of these countries. >> $130 million is a lot of money that will be disbursed to these countries. is it enough? >> this depends on what we are already providing to the countries. 130 million is on top of the
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financial -- financial support packages. over and above is more resources being done for the front-line agencies. in recent weeks you may have heard and seen reports about money being promised to the u.n. agencies like bilateral donors. those are going to front-line agencies that are supporting the government efforts. helponey is going to support the budgets of these countries that have also been affected. a lot of economic activity has impacted government tax revenue, which has declined sharply. our money is going to offset that so that normal government operations can continue. as you can imagine, there is a lot of spending pressure. this goes towards the cap as a result of lower revenues. you know, there are economic concerns of impending catastrophe.
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we learned the imf estimates growth this year in liberia and sierra leone could decline to 3.5 percent and could drop of 1.5% in guinea. can these nations undertake a dual track approach, fighting the virus and saving the economy? >> there is no choice. as you pointed out, beyond the human toll the diseases in, the social implications, the impact the disease is having on the economy. a time like this what the government policy should be allowand the money should the fiscal deficits to expand and support fiscal activity. the resources we are providing and encouraging other my 10 -- multilateral donors to provide for these countries in absence significant fiscal
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adjustment. what we are saying is this is a time when government policy, they should not have to cut spending in other areas, but rather, accommodate the impacts on the economy by expanding deficits. this is where some of our money is going towards. >> there are reports of overcrowded hospitals him at the facilities with no pets. health-care workers not showing up for fear of contract and the virus. are we looking at a possible collapse of the health care infrastructure in west africa? would not say west africa but limited to these three countries. what we're seeing is a very major impact to the health system, which will require significant rebuilding in the coming years. our support is immediate to address the balance of the deficit needs that have emerged in the short term. we are continuing to make an assessment of what the longer-term needs are and hoping
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to begin discussions in coming needed fort what is the rebuilding efforts. >> we have less than a minute left. this is a stigma that it has left on the countries affected. crippling is this economies dealing with exports and imports? will they be open to dealing with these nations even when the virus is contained? >> we certainly hope so. thee is nothing to suggest medium to long-term impacts from the outbreak will be very severe . we have looked at previous episodes where we have had this kind of destruction as a result of this end of disease. if you look at in the case of in 2003 and the far east, there was an impact but when the tape to cut the governments were able to move fast to contain it. the hope and expectation is once the diseases brought under control and the countries have
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overcome the disease itself, hopefully recovery can take base after. >> the deputy director of the international monetary fund african department joining us from washington. a pleasure to have you on the broadcast. thank you for your time. coming up him up the tail of to venezuela us. the perks of being a soldier under nicolas maduro. the latin america report is next. ♪
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>> time for today's latin america report. these days in venezuela a person would need to be fingerprinted every time they buy groceries in a grocery store. if you are in the military, there are not food lines. we're joined now on the perks of being a venezuelan soldier. how are they benefiting from the government? >> they're getting everything venezuelan people
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are not given. they have milk in dutch oil and everything else they need to get by. they are given cars. cars perrted 20,000 armed forces. eight cars were imported in in august. they were given loans. there is a military bank. given 100 percent financing for cars and other goods they need. free -- freeally money. houses as well. keep them happy. >> i was going to ask you why it keeps them happy? the military is happy, they may be unlikely to launch a coup. >> exactly. nine major coups in the past 100 years. economy where everything is getting worse for everybody else. people you do not want to anger are the military.
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once you lose the military, you are next. they are keeping them happy and employed. how is venezuela using the armed forces? >> venezuela has never been in war and they have a major presence of the military. they have given control over them. they were able to suppress the protests. 43 people were killed. they use whenever there is nationalization. last year nationalization of an electronics company. the military was rolled and in dispatch to take over. >> is this a page from the playbook. did he basically do the same thing with the military? paratrooper. this is definitely a page from his book but it has increased.
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the amount of military men and a is eight compared to five. they have increased the amount of officers that are joined the banks -- ranks. one officer for every 34 soldiers compared to one officers ever 1600 soldiers in the u.s.. the dollar in the black market rose to over 100 and. what does this mean for ordinary venezuelan citizens? >> the largest bill and is leila has to offer, is the smallest bill in the u.s.. your day to day expenses get higher because the official rate is a fixed rate at six per dollar. then they have various other rates. some things are imported at this rate and you cannot afford them because wages do not increase. distortions are created. people are trying to find ways to arbitrage.
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that is the way they make money off of them and people join professions they may be otherwise would not. when inflation is 63%, everything you are doing is trying to protect against the erosion of your savings. >> joining me in studio talking about something other than argentina. his new? that is your latin america report for this monday. phil to come, mark fields meets with an investor. an update from matt miller on the challenges facing the automakers. we continue in just a moment. ♪
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>> one of the main things he is saying is he wants to stay the course and continue the legacy of alan mulally for him. he wants to continue to reduce death and continue with the just recentlya reinstated and wants to continue to diversify their product mix and regional sales mix. those are the key messages for mark fields. they are selling more of their cars overseas as part of the ford plan. one of them is the mustang. chance -- test drive it in west hollywood. >> the 2015 mustang is important, not only because it is the only sports car that because it is the iconic american muscle car that focused our fascination on all things on four wheels for 50 years. go thiswe go, ready to
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is absolutely insane. but this is not your grandfather's mustang. it is also your dad. mustang is a radical departure from last year's model, multiple drive-by why are control ands launch independent rear suspension. each wheel independently suspended as opposed to a live rear axle. that means it can stick to the tarmac's much better and you do not lose the rear end as much as you did in previous mustangs. the pony now has a lot of competition. the class has gotten bigger and bigger. mustang on track to be outsold by the camaro i the fifth straight -- for the fifth straight year in a row. but now for the first time in 50 sell the once to mustang overseas. >> we will sell to 100 20 countries and doing a right hand
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drive as well as left hand. in the end of the car is truly a mustang. likes the question is, can the car actually compete with the modern european rivals? that is why we have come here to find out. ford says they did benchmark this car against 9/11. not only a carrera but a carrera s. a faster version. the quality is a little bit too good. if you are used to driving the last mustang gt and felt there was a ton of brute force at your beck and call whatever you wanted it, this car does not feel like that, and i think the problem is because it is so much smoother. andt is still tons of fun will make you smile. i know what you're talking about. the car is super capable so you have to find that even better road.
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bikes at the end of the day, it could come down to price. of the day, itd could come down to price. the mustang a big key to the ford strategy. they plan to sell a lot that would not tell us how many. they wilt -- will sell a ton of the f one 50's. they hope to continue on with the record. the question is, will they be over to switch over and produce enough of them to sell to the american public and will that he possibly, the crossover, the production switch up? we will talk to mark fields later on this afternoon. >> matt miller joining us from outside ford headquarters. right-hand drive must bring -- mustang. we will see. another check of the market movers on the other side of the break. line" continues in just a moment. ♪
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>> get the latest headlines of the top of the hour streaming on your radio and tablets and at bloomberg.com. that doesn't for this edition o -- that does it for this edition of "bottom line." coming up, olivia sterns interview with russian foreign minister. >> 56 pass our which means bloomberg television is on the markets. eating you caught up on where stocks are trading. stocks in the u.s. taking a cue from global peers. hong kong is one of the reasons for the selling. consumer spending also rebounded loosen thened to
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purse strings. take a look at bonds. i rally going on with treasuries advancing. looking at the 10 year yield right there. less than 2.5%. for more on today's action and what we can expect, i am joined and let'sing partner start with what is happening at the bond market. where are we headed? are in a range bound environment when it comes to the longer end of the curve. is in thear environment of their flattening for a while. we're getting to the point now where i think some risk reversals are making sense. >> seeing a selloff in u.s. equities today. can we blame it on what we're seeing in hong kong? >> i am not certain what we can blame it on. for the past 10 days the dow
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industrial average is up or down 1%. we have had a lot of volatility in that. some people still look at is -- it as an index to look at. when we look around the news cycle, i am not certain what we assign today's weakness to or last week's weakness. my best guess is it is all about the fed still. >> is it the fact that we are seeing a rise in income? i think any premonition you have today will either be confirmed or denied by friday. issue, yes. clearly we have had a little bit better outlook on wage growth the past couple of numbers that have come in. really if you look at what is going to drive stocks in the u.s. potentially it is the middle class expenditure, the
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consumer economy. one thing to think about is the oil complex comes down in price, that creates more leeway for people to go out and spend. are you telling people who are sidelining cash right now? >> i am not sure that is a bad thing to do. i would say this continues to be a high conviction only market. we like areas like health care. in the credits complex. the very far in dark end of the yield complex. >> there are a lot of problems with the overall equity market. what are some of the positive? is the aony here catalyst -- the catalyst same hidden. we know where the risk is. it is the catalyst. third-quarter earnings have come down quite a bit. pushing down expectations. i think that is the potential
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positive him as well as relative value versus european. i think there are things that do benefit u.s. equities going forward. >> we will have to leave it there. thank you. jeremy hill. that is it for on the markets. everybody, to the most important hour of the session. ♪ im olivia sterns in for trish regan. and defying a crackdown. thomasine think three more days of demonstration, and then the russian minister downplays issues. continue with or without exxon. and the cost of the unexpected defection of bill gross from pimco. " starts right now.
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