>> in mark halperin. >> -- i'm mark halperin. >> i'm john heilemann. mark is on the road today and "with all due respect," he should have taken the keys to the liquor cabinet. hello, or its fans. colorado gets rocky, the war on isis it gets even more daunting. but first, president obama canceled two major campaign if ends after a second dallas health-care worker came down with the disease. he met with his health care

workers. is it possible in purely political terms the president staying in washington and being president instead of campaigning is a good thing for democrats? >> the public health thing comes first. this is almost exactly like what happened when the president was dealing with sandy at the end of the last campaign. he gets to be commander-in-chief. he looks authoritative. he is doing conference hall, not only with world leaders on ebola, but also isis. -- he is doing conference calls. i think if the -- if he can get his arms around these crises, i think most democratic contenders would prefer that rather than him being in connecticut where he is supposed to be. >> we are not in full blown panic in america yet, but if you look at the front page of "the new york post," a lot of scary quotes from public officials at

the united nations. halloween costumes about ebola flying off the shelves. the president will do a lot of good if he can take control of the situation. >> and even in connecticut, would be governor's race there it is clear all as he and politics, he is better off being at the white house, being a leader, rather than doing a rally in connecticut. he has to stick with that as long as this is a crisis. >> i think you're -- you're sandy analogy is dead right. there is no doubt that it helped him in those final days, being out there looking like commander-in-chief. >> exactly. just better pictures. >> absolutely. let's move on. we have two new polls today both showing the president's approval rating at a long -- all-time low. which also helps to explain when he returns to the campaign

trail, his itinerary does not match up exactly where the action is. let's take a look at the political map. we have the contestants in yellow, where the real action is. the real battles. then we have the blue stars where the president plans to travel over the next few weeks. these are mostly deeply blue states, where there is a governor's race. there is only one state that overlaps, and that is michigan, and that gives you an idea how far outside the main lines of battle he is. the same polls show republicans with an advantage over democrats nationally, three weeks ahead of the midterms. how much of an advantage is less clear. are we looking at a republican wave here or not? and i have to say before you answer, i just do not see it. >> the republican brand is not doing great. in that abc whole, the democratic brand is at an

all-time low. the paid media matters. the ads. there is a greater weight for the paid media. in the senators and governors races, the paid media matters more. the international crises, the stock market tumbling, isis ebola. this is bad for the governing party. i think these numbers reflect a drift toward republicans. not a tsunami. at this point it would not be surprising if a lot of the senate races did rake toward -- break towards the republicans. >> i will agree with that. but there is a two-point difference in the poll, a long way from the seven-point spread in 2010. >> the democrats think that they can still turn people off not being picked up in those polls. >> whether there is a national wave, it is certain that certain senate waves -- races are

trending toward the gop. cory gardner ahead of incumbent senator mark udall by four points. in a new ad, he makes things personal. >> six years ago, mark udall got elected on a promise to be bipartisan. but in washington, he has written on the party line. his campaign has gotten too tired, too mean. it keeps us from fixing -- when my party is wrong, i will say it. when something is broken, i will fix it. >> the democrats have been extremely confident about their ability to hang on to the rocky mountain state. >> republicans have the upper hand right now. gardner has proven to be a great candidate and a likable candidate. you see it in that ad. they have tried to demonize him on issues. he is likable.

democrats have something in their back pocket. this is an all male election. it helps democrats to read more people vote more democrat-type voters vote. if they can mechanically get those ballots then, they can get that out. >> the political director of the democratic senatorial campaign he knows colorado really well and he has been focused on these mechanical efforts you are talking about for a long time. even with the polls shifting, there is an awful lot of confidence in democratic races right here. i do not think that race is by any means necessary -- over. >> they need postage stamps. >> and a final debate in this hard-fought contest. when pryor was asked to define

the middle class in terms of income, it's -- he said puzzles that make up to $200,000 a year. no, prior was not misspeaking. he said it twice. >> i think most of arkansas -- maybe that goes up to 150,000 dollars, 200,000 dollars. there are other ways to judge it, probably. that is my working definition. >> just to be clear, the median income in arkansas is roughly $40,000 a year. prior has been consistently behind in this race. -- pryor has been consistently behind in this race. has he put the final nail in his coffin? >> that got more coverage nationally been in arkansas. the republicans find this race basically over. the democrats have two factors. bill clinton who has been to the state, will probably go back.

and the turnout of african american voters. any police state, you have to think what is the contribution -- when you pull the state, you have to think about what is the contribution of the african-american voters. the clinton could come back. >> that would be right after louisiana -- they have a lot riding on bill clinton. i think he is going back -- not just once, but twice in the state before election day. mark pryor just made it harder for himself. >> he had a gaffe. >> david ignatius quotes a white house official is saying that putting u.s. advisers and harm's way is crucial to helping the iraqis vie kiesel -- fight isil. that sounds an awful lot like the one thing president obama

promised it would never be boots on the ground. will we he have to go back on a promise he made to win this war? i think the answer unfortunately is yes. >> there is no way they can fight a slow war without a stronger effort. i just do not see how, based on the reports we have seen the last few days, this can be successfully prosecuted in the short and medium term without more americans on the ground. the president will have to deal with that reality. probably safer after the midterms. >> we have seen this the last couple weeks, but the last couple days in particular, the military making clear it is not comfortable with the way this mission has been defined. the cia leaking to "the new york times" that president obama asked for a study of past incidents where the cia has worked with insurgents and rebels and found basically that it has never worked. >> you know to

undermine him or so the seed of doubt in the press. >> at the same time though, we have seen the last couple of days the kind of face-to-face or personal diplomacy president obama has not always been willing to do, he has the military leaders in the 20 or so allied countries. he did a teleconference with western european leaders to talk about ebola and isis. as we both know on the capitol hill, the president has not always put himself in these long meetings with the face to face conference. he is doing that now, and i think it shows the degree to which he understands there's a lot of coalition to be built and a lot of complexity. while they talk about setbacks they may not be calibrating just right in terms of this. >> according to news reports today, president obama is deciding to wait until after election day to nominate his new attorney general. sources indicate that he is leaning toward catherine russell. is he smart to wait until after

the midterms or is he making a mistake? >> the democrats did not want all of the candidates to be out on the senate battleground, but doing it this way, i do not think he will get anyone confirmed in the lame-duck unless he nominates john ashcroft. >> i do not think that is going to happen. >> he will have to take chances on a new senate. if it is a republican senate, it could be a protracted battle. very much the consensus as i understand it after the midterms -- >> i will take credit for taking her from the beginning. if she is the pick it will be a big play. >> i bet you a diet mountain dew he pick someone else. >> i will bet you a sixpack because i have a very high tolerance for diet mountain dew . [laughter] coming up, the pollster that helped president obama win two

elections. we will ask if he agrees disagrees, next. ♪

>> our guest tonight -- here are three things you need to know about him. he was once a new york reporter for the new york elite news, he worked for mario cuomo, and he was barack obama's pollster in 2008 and 2012. i am not sure which of those jobs was the hardest, but this interview will be easier. >> thank you. >> mark, big brother -- i will give you a high sign. we discussed earlier on the show putting aside questions of public health, which are central, on the political side is it that are for democrats for president obama to be back at the white house was to mark -- at the white house?

or should he be on the campaign trail? >> i think it is one of those things where you do not analyze it to lyrically first. what would the president do in situations like this. -- i think it is one of those things where you do not analyze it politically first. it was the same thing with sandy. i think the fact of the matter is there are things going on in the world that are unsettling to people and the president from his perspective, and i obviously worked for him as his pollster. i think it is the right thing to do. anytime you have a situation like this, whether it is around syria and gas isis around ebola, you have to be president first and that is what will serve you best. >> the race is the president was going to go into were all governor's races, no senate races. we know that if he went to lee louisiana and arkansas thomas

some good of it would come -- and arkansas, some good that would come for democrats. >> i don't think that is the question mark, with all due respect. that is the name of the show. i did not plan it that way. mitt romney won some of the states by 20 points or more. everyone is focused on the map, where is the president going into the cycle. everybody was talking about this -- >> i get that. i am just asking mechanically. if you had a poll in arkansas today and the president went and you had another poll in a few days, what impact would he have a question mark >> i do not think it is a question of whether it is negative or not. i think in many places it is baked into the cake. it is not a big decision for any candidate. i think the truth in all of these races, by the way --

candidates in campaigns matter. these folks have to win in their own. some of these are in states romney won by a significant margin and democrats are doing well there. some states, it is a tough climb to overcome. the question is not whether it will do significant damage or significant help, the question is will it have any impact and do the candidates feel they are better off running their own campaign and presenting their choice to the voters? that is their choice and it is probably the right one. >> all right, joel. you are a pollster. i am sure you do not get cold very often -- polled very often. we give you a three question poll. if the country on the right track or the wrong track? >>]. >> you are a yankees fan.

the greatest yankee of all time joe dimaggio, mickey mantle, or derek jeter? if you say eric jeter -- >> oh, that night the yankees won the game and jeter got hit in the head -- i think derek jeter got closer than anyone then perhaps lou gehrig in embodying the yankees if those. you left some players off of that. >> the greatest yankee of all time, joel benenson. >> and if you say derek jeter i am sending keith olbermann to your house with a baseball bat. >> mickey mantle. >> who would you choose -- mario cuomo in his prime, andrew cuomo right now, or chris cuomo? >> [laughter] this is such a cruel family game. chris cuomo. [laughter] >> jewel, the washington post

today suggests -- joel the washington post today suggest the democrats are not doing that great. who do trust for the economy, who do you trust on national security? the democrat brand is not in the same shape it was. why has that happened? >> i think it has happened largely because of congress. people view washington writ large as the most dysfunctional they have ever seen it. that has kept republican numbers depressed for a long time. numbers on the democratic party and democrats in congress have come down a bit. both of them have approval ratings in the 30's right now. i think that has to do with a macro sense that things are not working. >> why are republicans seen as better on policy today? >> i don't know. you referred to numbers from back at the beginning of the president's term, when he was inaugurated? >> when he got osama bin laden. >> 2012. >> there is a lot going on in

the world that is uncertain. i think it is just a matter of the party in power is getting rated a little harshly because they are the party in power. there are forces out there he bled not heard of. six months ago, and americans did not know what ebola was, did not know what isis was. >> joel, you have been pretty outspoken riding about hillary clinton and the disfavor that some supporters had given speculating. how that was not doing her any favors. she is on the campaign trail. if you were devising her, what would you tell her she needs to do between now and election day -- if you were advising her, what would you tell her she needs to do between now and election day? >> the advice i would give hillary clinton is the same advice i would give anyone. the authentic. be who you are. figure that out early and live with that from beginning to end. the other thing i would say is recognize if you are running, and i am not 100% certain she

is but if you are running, you have to understand you will be running in 2016, not the 1990's. the year of bill clinton's campaign is very different. you have to let stuff roll off your back. you cannot react to everything. the notion in those days, you respond to every attack. if you do that today, sometimes you give meaningless attacks more air than they deserve. you cannot do that. >> all right, john heilemann. thank you for coming today. we will see you soon. -- all right, joel benenson. >> we will have the most exciting four-way contest since that episode of "seinfeld." ♪

>> this afternoon, we are going to introduce you to someone very special our resident filmmaker.

we sent him to south dakota. this is what he brought back. >> good afternoon. there is a chill in the air. that can only mean one thing. it is election season. >> in and south dakota where last week the senate race here looked -- i'm in south dakota where last week the senate race here looked pretty quiet. he was running with plenty of name recognition from two terms as governor, widely expected to win the open senate seat. >> we have to win south dakota if republicans are going to take back control of the united states said it. >> but we are three weeks from the midterm elections and when i turn on my hotel television -- >> you have heard about mike rounds citizenship for sale scheme --

>> an ad from the left. a response from the right. >> you are not a political analyst. nor do you play one on tv. this race obviously has gone from the military being the center of the political universe. talk about the environment, how excited are people for the race? how worked up are they? >> sioux falls is a relatively small community, and yet it is the biggest city in the state. it does seem like a strange place for this battleground to be right now. >> mark? >> you have spent time with some of the candidates in the race -- >> you have spent time with some of the candidates in the race. do they seem nervous? what is the body language? >> we spent time with all four candidates. they seem pretty confident. they know their talking points at this point. >> [indiscernible]

what are his recruiting skills question mark >> he is a great performer. he can play guitar. >> johnny cash? "are you lonely"? >> there are two different songs were he changes the lyrics to "taking that washington." >> i am going to brag on you little bit. you are one of the greatest filmmakers i have seen working in this or any other time. your film on the race will be where when question mark >> on bloomberg politics tomorrow. >> tomorrow. we just got a little tease. >> there will be all kinds of exciting stuff. and we will have a real political analyst. griffin, thank you for coming in. then cast it. everybody check it out on the web. and we will be right back. ♪

>> ok, we are only on tv i have

already, but we are live 24/seven on bloombergpolit ics.com. >> coverage of ice is in a bowl and everything else "taking stock on the web right now. >> "taking stock" is next -- "taking stock" is next. ♪

>> hello, i'm pimm fox and this is what i am taking stock of on this wednesday, october 15 2014. european shares fell the most in three years. u.s. treasury bonds rallied the most since 2009. one billionaire oilman, harold hamm, suggested calm in the storm. >> people overreact. markets overreact. you have to have a longer-term view. a lot of people do not have that