>> "with all due respect", candidates right now are all about that base. tonight, al franken. and fantastic new ways to answer a question that wasn't asked. redirect, senatorial campaign committee are going back on the air in support of their candidate in kentucky.

grimes' race against mitch mcconnell seems to be a dead heat. is grimes back from the dead? >> mcconnell numbers are bad. he is not particularly popular. i think you that they are going back, that the clintons are working for her, she is in the game. the democrats are back on the air because they have the money to do it. they are downgrading south dakota and kansas. they are no longer eager out there to give up on anybody. >> it is going to be a close race. he has run something close to a flawless campaign. he is so unpopular. his disapproval numbers are skyhigh. the fact that he is leading in

this race or eventide show how technically good his campaign is. >> it's been true all along. just as ann richards could lose against george bush, mcconnell knew they could win even if they stayed relatively unpopular. i still think the obituary may not be that premature. >> i wonder if she got the clinton bump. >> he is good enough and smart enough, but do people like him enough? senator al franken seems ahead but his debates have been criticized in the democratic party biggest surrogates have been sent in to campaign. is al franken in danger of losing or is there something else driving those surrogates? >> this is one of the great mysteries of the race. you have a guy who is ahead by 15 points. the biggest names are being dispatched to read else is going on.

there is a polling that has the race closer, still probably in double digits. it seems like republicans feel confident, they're willing to play. >> they would have gone in earlier if they had more money. what democrat republicans think is they are trying to avoid he is lost in a way. there is wisdom that we will be seeing surprises on election night. they don't want to give republicans a huge advantage. there are other competitive races. >> and inoculate. you send the first lady there. it keeps the sense that democrats have their eye on that ball. >> i bet there will be polling done and you may see some movement.

it may surrogates helping. if republicans think there may be a tied because of ebola and crises they need to worry there could be some surprise there. if there is any state that is a surprise, that's the one. >> returning to our race to watch from yesterday, a new poll out today that shows the iowa senate candidates tied. that is not the most interesting thing happening in the hawkeye state. the most exciting thing is the switch to jitterbuging. check out this ad from the chamber of commerce. >> he claims he is a farmer. but he is really a trial lawyer. >> i have no idea what the connection is. the democrats have said their big advantage was the ground game.

today, republicans are crawling. have republicans neutralized the biggest democratic advantage? >> there is no doubt the republican party has been in decline. democrats have sent in obama twice. these early vote numbers seem to suggest republicans are at least digging into and maybe overtaking the democratic advantage. if that is the case, braley has not been the strongest candidate. ernst is dealing with controversy. not a good idea. republicans are saying, this is something no voter is going to care about. she has done plenty of interviews. this is probably not the best use of her time from the campaign point of view. >> the braley campaign has seized on it.

they are saying it is a big deal. that indicates a panic. it is not a big enough deal for them to be making this deal out of it. >> this afternoon we spoke to debbie schultz about president obama's role in the midterms. why the president isn't campaigning. she says the president is campaigning in some competitive races. john followed up like this. >> what races? >> the president is campaigning in competitive races. >> what competitive senate races? >> there are races the president is campaigning in around the country. he is also governing. >> that was painful to listen : to. like a lot of questions, why he isn't now trying to win these biggest battles, are they still smart to keep them out of iowa north carolina?

>> i think the bottom line is, candidates have to run their own races. the candidates don't want him in those states. they don't have any choice in this matter. everyone should watch this interview. it is fascinating on a lot of levels. she is forthright admitting she voted for president obama. he is a drag. he is the big issue republicans trying to nationalize the race around. senate candidates don't want him. >> you see democrats looking to make a case the president cost them the midterms. not uncommon. he is not out there pray you need to find a way to fill the time. the crises have abated. it is going to beg the question why he is not out there if there is no argument to stay home to deal with the crises.

>> he's going to do governors races. >> just not competitive senate races. >> coming up, we have been searching for the secret weapon in the quest to keep the senate. guy cecil is next. ♪

>> and securely famous, guys -- our guest tonight is guy cecil. you are nice to be here. the day after the election what will our headline be on our story about the senate races? >> democrats retained the majority.

>> really, that declarative? >> yes. >> no overtime, no louisiana? >> maybe over time, but we will hold the majority. lock cinch guarantee. >> we are done. here is a question, chairman scholz, there has been grime is refusing to say if she voted for the president. i assume you did. >> i did. >> a lot of candidates have been asked, and have answered the question badly. buyer candidates having a hard time when they know the question is coming? why are they having a hard time finding a concise way to answer it. >> the only people obsessed with the answer of the people covering the races. they are not about the white house, or giving the best speeches.

it is about the people on the ballot. there is no shock here for the last years, presidents and their second term are generally unpopular. we are doing this in nine states. we believe the choices the voter should make are on the ballot. when the president says his policies are on the ballot imitate the facial expression you may. >> i do think they are things many of our candidates share. when our candidates agreed with the president they say so. when they disagree they say so. >> the agree with him on obamacare. most of them voted for it. those who voted for it are supportive. why aren't they saying we stand with the health care? >> there have been ads about the

expansion of medicaid and medicare. the republicans have tried to use that calling card. republicans ran in 2010 on obamacare. republicans ran on obamacare in 2012. everyone thought they were going to win the majority. this is not going to be an issue that decides the election. we are not going to provide every false attack. i don't think it has one impact of any of our races between now and election day. >> we talked with president obama not doing campaigning. you point out he is not. bill clinton's name is not on the ballot. both clintons are campaigning everywhere. why is it the president stays away?

>> i will give you a great example. secretary clinton was in colorado this week. i got a chance to visit the state i worked in. no one talks better about the number one issue in colorado the fact that cory gardner wants to make all abortions illegal. we have defined it to communicate about the issues that are going to make or break these elections. secretary clinton speaks to women about how far right-wing republicans have gone on most economic and social issues that affect women. >> publicans have made senator reid an issue. how does he feel about the job? >> he anticipates holdings the majority. he expects to hold majority and stay the majority figure. the race is in georgia and kentucky are as close in

arkansas, louisiana, north carolina. we are playing offense. we are not just playing defense in the south. >> this is the third time you have done this. you are seen as a magician. you have been asked to come into tough situations. if you keep the majority, will you come back and do it again? >> this'll be my last cycle. i have done three of the last four. >> is this a great joy or trauma? >> i love the job. i think it is important. i didn't think it was a foregone conclusion we would hold the majority in either cycle. i believe what our party stands for. >> we are going to be right back and talk about the senate race by race. ♪

>> we are back with guy cecil. we are going to ask you where the democratic path to victory is. let's start with colorado. how does mark udall win? >> it is the first am everybody gets a ballot in the mail. better for democrats. the bottom line is he is extreme on women. >> how much will turnout increase? >> over 2 million. >> next state, arkansas. >> mark pryor, a lot of people think he is gone. >> we've registered 95,000 african-americans along the western part of the state. we think we are going to be successful increasing their

turnout. bill clinton is all over the state. >> how many people who vote? >> we are hoping that it will increase by 5% over 2010. >> so this is not gone. >> absolutely not. >> louisiana. nobody's going to get a majority. >> we do have a chance to hit 50. the african-american vote during the early vote is the highest it has been. we have the largest number of african-americans registered 900,000 more. we're trying to get it to 50%. >> what can you do to help? >> it is all about turnout in this part of the state. it is all about that base. >> up to alaska.

whether there was a weirder senate race in terms of the complexities, you said this was the strangest. >> it is strange and we are going to win because we are appointed turnout the most disenfranchised people in our country. our office, we have an office here. >> it is practically in russia. you can see russia from your campaign headquarters. >> we are going to turn up the native vote. it will be the highest level bigger than the presidential election. >> what is the name of the office? >> the arctic circle office. >> how many people work there? >> in that office one. we have 150 people full-time staff, another six-time canvassers. >> do republicans match you? >> not even close. >> how important is the third-party candidate? >> we expect them to get three to five points. >> this is a race, it has gotten

closer and the last 10 days. north carolina. do you agree with that? >> no. our polls have stayed over the last six weeks. she has had a consistent lead. where'd you get your vote? >> education is the number two issue in this state. people care about the issues and not just about who is the president. this is a great example of the emerging coalition of the democratic party, hispanic african americans, young people. we lead in the two and three-way ballot. >> this is a race we have been talking about. iowa. there is a lot of news three and a lot of people think this is joni ernst's to lose.

how does greatly win? -- how does braley win when the momentum seems to be with her? >> one thing i heard from the previous section was on early vote. we are dominating people that did not vote in 2010. we have a 22 point lead that did not turnout in 2010 but are turning up to date. all of the republican voter people are people who vote in 2010. they are not expanding. >> they can focus on trying to get other people. >> we get to do both. >> so far you think you're going to win colorado, arkansas, -- all of them. >> i think we are one to win them all. >> on election night, what should we be looking for? you can see it's going to be close. >> absolutely. >> where should we be looking? >> you get to the eastern part of the state, it is more democratic. western is more republican.

we're going to win in the mid-level talents, college towns. towns regularly population. >> the eastern part of the state, he is behind. is that true? >> we have him ahead in his district. >> move forward in new hampshire. >> we have a lot still to go. jeanne shaheen. you have had a lead here. have you lost it? >> our last poll had us at 5.3 she has never been the low. she think she is going to win. >> did you watch or do they? >> i thought she did great. i think that is an honest answer. >> this is about independents. >> jeanne shaheen has a stronger appeal to independents. >> so far, where democrats stand to lose, here is south dakota. you decided to throw $1 million into this race. how has that paid off?

are you optimistic? >> i think the fact the matter is it is a four-way race. the elements are within single digits. >> a hold a claim shows random with a big lead again. -- rand with a big lead again. >> are you still on the field? >> yes. >> do you care who wins? >> we prefer weiler. >> last seat. al franken in minnesota. any chance he loses? >> no chance. >> we can move on. >> georgia prayed this is one you may be right. a real chance. this guy has been talking about -- you are registering a lot of

african-americans there. what does he need to do to close? >> we have to maximize our vote. we are going to outperform on most democrats. >> is the mayor helping? >> absolutely. anything to try the -- anything to turn out the african-american vote is helpful. there was a public poll that had her at 47. we have it for 46. >> is the governor's race impacting you at all? >> no. >> pat roberts, are you spending money? >> not a done. -- not a dime. >> you are just flying blind. >> if there is no democrat on the ballot, we just see it is a close race. >> kentucky, you are back in. >> why out and back in. >> on the day we reported we were out, we sent $400,000.

we were outspent by less. >> why are you back in? >> it is almost a tied race. he's the most unpopular republican. it's a tossup. we are going to maximize the vote in louisville and make sure undecideds have no reason to like mcconnell. >> guy cecil, a grizzly veteran. we appreciate it. ♪

>> we are live 24/7 on bloomberg politics.com. i am going to read a story on the democratic blame game starting early against the white house.

>> check out our interview on bloomberg politics. we say goodbye.

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