twitter, they're not facebook, call it #desperateforgrowth. this is "bloomberg surveillance." tuesday, october 28, i am tom keene with scarlet fu and brendan greeley. some top headlines today, the number one story across this nation, ebola. >> u.s. response to ebola eating anything but coordinated. new guidelines were chatting people with the disease. the governors of new york and new jersey said they are not enough. here is the cdc director. >> with these guidelines, we are engaging in a series of discussions with state and local governments. we find state health departments generally to follow cdc guidelines. if they wish to be more stringent than what the cdc recommends, that is within their

authority in the system of government that we have. we believe these are based on science. >> both new york and new jersey have impose mandatory quarantines. a five-year-old boy who recently right in the west from west africa has tested negative for ebola. the boy had been admitted to a new york hospital with a fever. oil prices keep falling. west texas intermediate trading below $80 a barrel. goldman sachs cut its price projections. we will find out tomorrow morning when the government releases its latest data. oil has dropped 21% from its peak in june. when opec meets late next month, it is a likely to cut production to prop up the price, which brings us to our twitter question of the day -- >> twitter is starting to panic. the number of active members on twitter group in the third quarter, but at a slower rate. bloombergy ceo tells

the company's number one priority is adding users. the company's losses increase. shares of twitter down as much as 12% in the premarket. the ceo and the cfo have been replaced. also, don't forget dick costolo will be on bloomberg television today at 12:30 p.m. earnings came up short at the largest bank in switzerland. ubs posted third-quarter profit that missed analyst estimates. ubs is preparing to settle investigations in the currency rigging. bloomberg spoke with the ceo. >> we are making progress towards a resolution of these matters, although, we're not notling the timing -- we're controlling the timing. i think we're in a position that

better estimates about how to address those issues. they estimate ubs may end up paying more than $4 billion in fines. gardenson square considering splitting into two companies, one of the reasons wouldeven ballmer, msg, put the sports teams and cable networks in one company. that would be real estate and entertainment assets. the other idea would be to unlock value in the rangers and ballmer clearly the catalyst, paying $2 billion for the l.a. clippers. rumor has it miss fu will hangiate for the rights to the new york rangers on a weekly basis? a daily basis is fine, too. >> unlock the mystery that is pinned station. please, will somebody do something? focus on the realestate.

>> for those of you worldwide, penn station, the destruction of it, really beginning the urban preservation in the united states. >> it is like a rat hole. >> one used to stride into new york like a king, and now you scurry in a raccoon stew -- like a rat. >> let's do a data check. 10 points.a nice some volatility, oil, under $79 for a good part of yesterday. comes back one dollar. on to the next screen. let's walk through oil. print accrued 85.63. nymex, 80.9. there is five dollars spread. the russian ruble weakens out 42.57. uglier and uglier for the russian ruble. let's look at a chart that was interesting and has become really interesting. this is american oil.

west texas intermediate. all you have got to see is how elegant this is. up, up, up -- no, i don't think so. up, up, up -- no, i don't think so. it is not that this is the bloom, it is there is no bid. the only thing that will stabilize return oil around is the idea of opec action, some drama. >> and there's no indication saudi arabia's per pair to do anything. -- prepared to do anything. it is all about the u.s. >> there is no indication that opec even has the pricing power it used to. that is the scary part. >> you mentioned gasoline under three dollars a gallon. is that where we are? >> not new york. >> not on long island. >> there a disk. it will be one of our themes this morning.

this morning, the union bank of switzerland reports swiss banks have been the too big to fail rome for over the last two years. this would spikes have been deleveraging. charles calaveras is one of america's experts on why their banks are not like our banks. also joining us, michael for tech. swissld me once has four bank accounts. a making that up. professor, we honored to have you here. in the generalization, why are our banks clearing markets better than the european banks? >> i think the european banks are not in as good financial condition and they are in an economy that is still heading south. so it is a pretty tough environment right now. looks within that, why can't they go out and do a secondary offering?

our banks were struggling and when out and re-primed the capital. can't they do that? >> absolutely. and they have been. what would you rather play wit, your own money or somebody else's? i think the key player is the political environment of the countries in europe is the local governments, the national governments are still sort of captured other local banks and their providing effectively taxpayer protection. the henry kaufman professor at columbia university. dr. kaufman is talked about going back to a partnership structure where banks have skin in the game. are we anywhere near that? >> for the biggest banks, that is a hard thing to do. the proposal is he wants to drastically downsize the banks, which would fit without partnership structure. ofyou're looking at the size the banks that we're talking about, i don't think that is going to be so feasible.

>> you asked whose money now want to play with. i want to play with tom's money. you sent us some research out of nyu that looked at the asset quality review, the other part of the stress test. your feeling is, look -- >> it is a protectable disappointment. the ecb was put in an impossible independent,be the a political entity in an apartment that is gripped by politics, so that were put in a position of having to stand behind, to sort of put their perimeter around something that was unlikely to be honest all along. as you pointed out, the study basically says that the ecb's estimates are off by a factor of 20. >> i want to bring michael in on this on technology. we have a stratified banking service, the sclerosis in europe that we all about. they don't do tech like we do tech. do you link that is to just capital spirits and finance

spirits? >> nobody does tech like we do tech. my friends who are ceos of tech companies in europe they give europe as basically a couple of sections. there is northern europe will just doing quite well in southern which is hurting and the u.k. which is -- >> what about germany and france? >> france would be sort of training to southern europe. germany is north. tech companies are known to go for two major reasons. the french really want a french office, french employees and french business team and also it is very, very hard to hire and fire in france. but the entrepreneurial spirit, technology capabilities, never the same. london is benefiting -- chiefly, by the way, from our bad immigration policy in america. our immigration policy is a donation to the british technology community. >> this is a third rail with you. >> something michael has pointed out about the french.

the new joke is, what is the second largest france city echo the answer is, london. >> all the french opera dinners -- entrepreneurs -- i got it. shares of twitter down about 11% in the premarket. slowing growth in users is the big theme. increased 23% in the last quarter, but that is a slowdown from 24% the previous quarter. i know you have some advice. what does he need to fix? >> he is a very good ceo. twitter, i think the secret is out. twitter is having a growth problem. it is not going to become facebook. the bet that twitter is made is on a new technology called fabric of the which, by the way, has nothing to do the twitter feed that you and i use every day. fabric is a set of technology developers to build their apps and make them were available inch more quickly and seamlessly. it is a tool kit.

if he gets adopted, the twitter will get huge amount of data that it can then turn into a much more attractive app platform -- ad platform. i think the secret is out and the answer is in, twitters for power users, not for the mainstream. >> that spring and brendan greeley. >> twitter is focusing on becoming a platform. is a successful platform, but it makes no money. don't they have a problem if they move backward and open up their api for more other apps, they're letting that revenue to be on the platform in exchange for more users? is they will own the new html. if one company owned the new html, it would be very, very lucrative. all of the bet is on fabric. >> twitter tries to get its act together, facebook just keeps advancing. we see facebook this afternoon. what will you listen for her mr. zuckerberg and company? >> mandarin.

>> i think facebook is going to keep crushing it. in here is why. the word on the street in silicon valley, if you look at the data, facebook advertising data are so personalized, so good, so detailed, so unique that they are better than google . i think that is going to be the big story coming up. i believe facebook's advertising platform will continue to be google. >> charles calomiris, all of that, coming up. onk costolo will be bloomberg today. look for that at 12:30 p.m. on bloomberg television. looking for to that. what is it, 9% down? >> 11%. coming up, as oil prices come down, we look at the economics of oil exploration in the role north dakota plays in the place -- price plunge. our twitter question of the day --

back. be right ♪

>> this is "bloomberg surveillance." texas have been following for days. demand is down for oil in saudi arabia is open the taps, but even the core opec countries don't have the pricing power they used to. the state of north dakota and the republic of texas or exporters, too. the rosten is sustainability of bloomberg and wrote the book "the carbon age." has opened just completely lost control over the price of oil? >> that is probably an exaggeration. there are still the 800 pound gorilla. that gone from having monopoly

power to what is called dominant firm power, which means they are huge and more influential than anybody else but they can't produce enough oil to drive the u.s. out of business. >> what is happening then, as oil becomes cheaper, changes the economics of the very expensive exploration we been doing offshore. >> and that is the key question everyone is watching now from the arctic exploration to canadian oil fans to some of the shale, we're seeing really estimates because nobody knows for sure what the price points for how cheap oil can get before that the shutdown. >> rush is not part of opec, correct? >> correct. >> with your great work on carbons and that, how big of a mystery is the supply and demand of oil? we break through 80. all of the drama yesterday. $79 a barrel. smart guys like you, what is the confidence in that marginal supply and marginal demand

dynamics? >> it is changed. the goldman sachs report they cannot yesterday has really sparked conversation about how long these low prices may persist. goldman sachs is projecting we may see $75 wti, $85 bridge prices. >> do you agree with that? >> absolutely. you can see it is possible. i have a couple of questions for you about that. >> well, pick a good one. oilhere does brazil's exploration figure into all of this? they're taking it on the chin from a variety of perspectives right now, obviously. and i will sneak in the other one. >> excuse me, is this a presidential press conference? is he talking to the president? >> related to russia. >> is ill is bouncing back. we are seeing increased exploration. they have been played for a

number of years. local labor issues in the same sort of offshore paralysis that we've seen everywhere since the deepwater horizon. russia, i think is more contained than a lot of people would have thought. the west siberian sort of mature fields are doing their own thing, and sort of the rubl has been fluctuating downe with that output. so that sort of codependency of the west siberian oil and the falling ruble -- >> could this not get more volatile? >> that is part of the conversation. this idea the dynamics of dollar currency movement with oil. talks it is interesting you say the goldman report that really moved this market. we have a table from the goldman report that looks at the breakeven points like country when they start to get in trouble. we have russia at $100 a barrel.

under that is when things get dicey. at $60.kuwait they can keep pumping. >> they can at least sit and watch to see how low the prices get before he was producer start to feel pain. >> i would to go back to fracking. when we think about fracking, it is usually for natural gas. i just want today you also do so for writing the crude oil as well. >> that's right. particularly, in north dakota and two fields in texas. the same horizontal trolling techniques and fracking technologies that have freed all of the gas, work for more complex hydrocarbons as well. chart ofbring up the opec. this is well adjusted for inflation and rising real incomes, showing a far less gloomy chart. this goes back 60 years. when you look at this chart and remember 1986 and the collapse of opec and how close are we to 1986? >> i don't think anyone is

expecting that level of drop. we've seen over the last five euros, a gradual lifting and what has become concrete, particularly in the last few weeks, the u.s. show production has reached a plateau where it is sustainable for a number of years ahead. is that maturity is what consequently reducing -- >> professor, did you drive a vw do so -- diesel? -- i drive one now. i drive a passat diesel. i was going to change to vegetable oil. we're going to give you a jumpstart on our twitter question. yes.itter stil>> they are not the monopoly we are used to historically, and it is been controlling the market

really since 2008. >> air crossed and, thank you. you can put your chains on again. , thank you.en you configure chains on again. >> volatility of a week and a half ago, whether or not eating to load the boat on on mobile this morning. futures up 10. tell futures up 70. stay with us. it is bloomberg surveillance. ♪

>> this is "bloomberg surveillance." it is time for our morning must-read. gilbert --om mark

mine is from mark gilbert. charles calomiris, should the ecb jump with both feet into sovereign debt? >> i would say i don't think there will be able to avoid it. i think the main reason they will not be able to avoid it is the economy's. it is an existential moment over the next year for europe, i would say. >> charles calomiris, that , in your course, your teaching out of michigan stacks book. monitor solution to lousy growth. does that work? >> no, it is not sustained growth. but it does have some wonderful affects on financial balance sheets and it can also bailout

sovereign -- >> so you support what draghi is doing, the rhetoric that make it to passive accommodation in europe? ok. charles calomiris, columbia university. we will talk about the fed coming up. we have a double promotion. what you need to know about twitter and the first derivative. and they are firing more than all tesla. the conversation tonight on "bloomberg west" at 6:00 p.m. how did is that? -- how good is that? stay with us. ♪

up 10. morning, futures american oil, back over $81. a veritable surge in oil from below $80 a barrel about 23 hours ago. it is "bloomberg surveillance." scarlet fu and brendan greeley with me this morning. scarlet has the top headlines. >> federal authorities announced a new governments for treating people with ebola by governors andrew cuomo of new york and chris christie of new jersey say the public is not safe enough. the new policy calls for people who have been in contact with ebola patients checked in person by local health authorities. new york and new jersey have both imposed a mandatory quarantined. amazon plans its first facility in illinois. the online retailer says it is in the process of site selection and 75 nine dollars best or will

create more than 1000 jobs by the end of 2017. the new facility expected to open next year. youtube works on a pay subscription model according to "the wall street journal." google has been exploring ways to generate more revenue from the site. in 2006.ed it those are your top headlines. >> we're thrilled to bring you michael fertik them who does a number of things, including my reputation on the digital space. what is in my head right now, michael, is google in the next two to five years. everyone assumes they are dominant. is that correct? >> they brought back one of the great -- >> he is a real splash in your world. >> he is one of the early employers -- employees of google. the golden goose of google, the ad platform that had forever --

>> is under threat. under threat. >> i'm on google less that i used to be. are you? >> how are you finding all of your information? >> i just use the search engine, and that is it. >> he has people to google for him. are probably interacting with google products more than you used to. chrome, nest will come to your home. google is blowing up its platform. the golden goose come the thing that has been feeding it is indeed slowing down. is the -- my thought facebook platform is so good that i think they're going to start to really challenge google. >> michael fertik on google. let's move back to the fed. .il sinks, treasuries rise the fed dives into a two day meeting in washington.

investors brace for the end of qe. although stubborn economics at home, abroad? what will janet yellen do? i want to frame right now what would happen if they raised rates. this is a major debate to me. would you support a nominal rate increase just to signal a return to normalcy? >> i would like to see it be announced in advance. i would not want to shock the market. but i think that people are way too scared of her return to a normal monetary policy. what we know from history is, when you're in the middle of a recovery like this -- which is now an established recovery in the u.s. you should not be afraid to raise interest rates or to depart from this monetary policy. right now the fed is so spooked and adrift, it doesn't seem -- i would guess they are not going to act. is there too much

information? right now in your world, are there too many people yammering away? >> well, of course, we always worry about too much talk. what is coming from the central bank, and in a confusing way, that is the problem. the problem right now is, if i went through, for example, what the fed has said about labor market indicators over the past year, it would be just massive confusion. oh, we are targeting the unemployed it right but now we are targeting the labor participation rate, wait a minute, we're thinking about the wage rate. a strong dollar, maybe that is bad news. which, it is in. that isoil prices, bad -- which it isn't. the fed is going from one indicator to another sending mixed signals in the end result is mass of confusion. >> they're moving the goalposts

as they talk. they told michael mckee may fed should hold back on ending qe. do you think it will perhaps lead $5 million in monthly purchases? >> no. and there's a very funny blog yesterday about my friend ben stiller says he now wednesday award for the most uncertain central banker in the world. have great respect for president bullard, but he is really moving around within that continuum. >> your criticism is too many indicators. should the fed have a much simpler dashboard? >> it should be able have a consistent message based on intelligent indicators and not moving the goalposts unpredictably. a great example, we target unemployed rate. the actual and implement rate has fallen, the natural rates of the fed targeting keeps going

down, too. it almost looks like the fed already knows what answer it points politically and it is just trying to follow. >> and that is the heart of the matter, the fed is a political beast. the word of the moment is slack. is there still slack for chairman yellen to be slackey in this two-day meeting? >> we don't know, honestly. i was at a group discussion last night where there was a lot of disagreement about this. i would say there's a lot less slack than chairman yellen believes there is. >> but the slack is not in michael fertik's world. should the rest of america be cautiousto a slack-driven policy, or do they have to pay homage to michael it, 42 people is in silicon valley that have all the money? >> about 44. >> how do you dovetail his entrepreneurial war -- world

into america? >> they're two different worlds. the fed is not going to be able to use monetary policy to solve some of the structural problems that you're really alluding to. the reason why uncle's is different is a structural reason. -- why michael's world is different is a structural reason. hurton't translate to the in certain sectors in america. >> we are seeing how silicon valley has stepped into the cap coming up with it appear lending companies, for instance, what is the name of the company going public? lending club. >> what is that about? valley's attitude toward this is, we don't really understand what is going on in new york or d.c. or the fed and we're going to behave accordingly. it is a problem because as the butterfly flaps it's wings, do

we feel the hurricane? we will see -- >> 10 seconds. in greece, the new higher yields? >> i think what is interesting now, what is different, greece is not the loan it was four years ago. >> charles calomiris and michael fertik with us. we will continue this conversation. beingwhat extent is ebola affected by media? ♪

>> good morning, "bloomberg surveillance." gorgeous across all of new york city. ratio ofstance, the anna, preparing3 for halloween. bruinsut to the boston who visited children's hospital in boston yesterday and they all dressed up as "frozen" characters. bunch of snowmen?

sas.hey all came as el that gets us to a serious moment , a losing race against ebola with perspective on that, here is scarlet fu and our single best chart. >> wraps the media construct of the disease. it tracks the number of stories published on the bloomberg professional service with the word "ebola" in it starting this year. there are four points. the first was in late march when the cdc announced the outbreak in guinea. the second, late july when the cdc raised the warning to level three out of three levels. the third when we highlighted is when the cdc confirmed the first case here in the united states. then you go want to win the dallas stars tested positive and of course last thursday when a new york doctor tested positive. just to show you how this coincided with market turmoil, we're going to layer the vix on

top of this chart. that is the yellow line. we're not saying there is causation or even necessarily correlation, but it does show a certain amount of emotion. what do you think, michael fertik? >> i think it is the fear about the fear. the fear about the aversion behavior. this rational behavior, hedge fund guys, major investors come all of the people in silicon valley baby considering what investments to make, their concern the aversion behavior of the public will increase if ebola gets to the western world or the developed world. it is the fear on the fear, not the actual -- it is related to the volume of content which also tracks the news. i don't think this is an over cover topic. >> a self-sustaining cycle. a week and a half, people say maybe ebola was the x factor. rehearing a lot on the west coast? >> i think the more news we

have, the more discussion, the better. speaking for the internet, it is a self-healing mechanism. the more discussion we have, the more rationalization that follows the fear. i like the discussion. i think it will heal itself. >> people in nigeria would agree. they could better contain if they had better internet. they were talking. one of the things i'm whirring of -- thinking about, there is a cottage industry in the media, media making fun of media for making too big of a deal. sometimes i think are making too much of a circus about ebola in the u.s. and not enough over ebola in west africa. does that worry you? >> i think i really don't know. i think that is what the honest answer is about ebola for most people in america is, you know, are weve a feeling, why all doing more to actually

contain the outbreak in africa -- what aren't we all doing more to actually contain the outbreak in africa? don't you feel like you don't know what is going to happen? >> i've seen some articles to your point about the world bank out of time at college, major, major abilities and it did in the elegy and you are -- epidemiology, & poor or money into it and saying, no, we need a measured and analyzed response. you can't have both, can you? can we throw a lot of money at it and have a constructive response it west africa? >> the problem is, wanting all that happened very quickly. i think you can imagine if we had a couple of years to figure out how to throw a lot of money at it, i think you could figure out a way to create the right kind of the centralized mechanisms -- >> who else? >> all help all alan. -- all hail paul alan.

>> michael fertik eying drinks at jobless. --michael fertik buying drinks at davos. andll hai capitalisml silicon valley. it works the donations from china. i think it is great we have this radical -- the culture to give it away in moments of crisis. >> i have to say from reporting on his earlier in the fall and the people who work inside the government are terrified. they sadly agree with charles calomiris, we're in a place where we don't yet know the answers. we've not been here before. >> we will be right back with our guest hosts michael fertik and charles calomiris. is it another tech bubble or continued boom? ♪

>> good morning, "bloomberg surveillance." futures improved. not on the 17,000 watch yet, but there it is. we advanced.

>> twitter once to find new members. the ceo tells bloomberg that top priority is adding users. the number of active members grew at a slower rate last quarter in the company's nadal scott bigger. shares are down as much as 12% in premarket. atk costolo will be on today 12:30 p.m. boosting its 2014 subscriber forecast. the number four u.s. wireless carrier added 1.4 million carriers -- users. costs, came at a cost. t-mobile reported a loss. the ceo of t-mobile will also be on bloomberg television at 12: today. interested in working with tim cook, speaking at a conference

in california where he was asked if it makes sense for his companies alipay want to team up with apple pay. that is today's company news from the files of bloomberg west. mutual admiration society. our guest host this hour is michael fertik, of reputation.com. whether it is alibaba and twitter or private companies airbnb, our tech setups in a boom or bubble? 90, decide above one play dollars right now -- valued at above $1 billion right now? >> a year ago, there were 30. we're seeing interesting behavior. other signs are on the pocket not. parking lot. they were known and described themselves as storage companies, but the value of storage came down, the price of storage can down, margins game down, and they started to reposition

themselves as the middle layer api to the cloud, whatever that means. they're repositioning themselves were different kind of position because yes, we're in a bubble, but it may be we hope a selected bubble. long may beny, bubble continue. there's a difference this time. number one, we have a lot of companies like ours that have real revenue, real margins, real growth, real customers. you do have this 15 years ago, google, facebook, e bell, apple, large public companies that are buying smaller companies. 6, 7, 8 only4, 5, public companies in tech that are valued in the same way as the privately held companies, you start as the question. on the lower end, starting to see a different behavior as well. there's a very technical field, raising their a round. amazing. there raising money. is,feedback they're getting

hey, we're seeing copies like you in every large venture fund is getting in investment in your field. what does that mean? the investing on the basis of momentum perception. that is a bad sign. not on fundamentals, but the perception. that is a bad sign. >> having so when the market turns, we will see who is swimming naked, essentially. >> i do not want to see him swimming naked. >> that always feels a little disingenuous for me. we had a warning when it was like, kids, you be careful with my money, spend it well. it is his money. he gave it to him. there was an interesting piece we were talking about minute ago, asking whether most companies that are very valuable aid to be started and silicon valley. i think they're touting the fact you can start your company in europe, too. notink the report -- i'm sold on that report.

i think you are an e-commerce company in india, you to stay in india. if you are an e-commerce company in china, you have to stay in china. most of the great entrepreneurs are moving to silicon valley as well as the investors. -- you stopped shy of northern europe. do you see that as a source of new ideas? >> what is amazing about estonia, finland, scandinavia -- you have a deep technical excellence and expertise and very good command of english. that, nation makes you very attractive to global markets and that the same thing, use the small countries and focused on the u.s. markets. big mistake french and german companies make, these their own countries as first market and then go to austria. >> professor, you travel internationally advising central banks. english is common language is to

profound. i think of the japanese with all of their wonderful heritage. even the brazilians with portuguese. not a limited use of english, but english is still the currency of the moment, isn't it? >> and it a great example of that. it is a question i have for michael. where does india fit into this whole high-tech surge and how does that dovetail -- just picking -- >>'s india could get out of india's way, it would be the next major -- technology is there. the entrepreneurial spirit is there. the connections to america is there. the market itself is large enough. the only thing that gets in the way is the massive regulatory lock eight. we have a subsidiary in india, my company. i think we're filled out something like 20,000 pages of paperwork to hire a dozen people in india. can you imagine?

big stamps like you're in egypt. theichael fertik, answer internal question. if you could go to one place that is not silicon valley to start a company right now, where would it be? >> israel. maybe boston. harvard and m.i.t. are still generating major returns, but nobody is paying attention to boston. diego.an israel has figured it out. they have figured it out. they focus on the american market. >> professor calaveras, when does the fed raise rates? >> when would i like to see them is a lot earlier -- >> sooner rather than later. >> i think they're going to wait. unfortunately, i think we may not even see it in 2015.

>> thank you so much. ruvell will out 42. -- ruble will out over ♪ . .

>> this is "bloomberg surveillance."

>> politics, science, and law clash. quarantine rules, they are in chaos. opec.barrel in and twitter, they are #desperateforgrowth. good morning, everyone. york world our new headquarters online joining me scarlet fu and ben greeley. >> a battle over who's ebola guidelines will work better, new rules stop short of mandatory quarantines, not good enough for governors of new york and new jersey's. both states have mandatory 21-décor and teens for anyone forsed -- 21-day quarantine anyone exposed to ebola. we arecdc thinks that

being too cautious. i understand that. >> still, new york and new jersey have back up somewhat, the quarantines can be served at home. the u.s. is stocking up on oil and that is likely to keep the price falling. west texas intermediate was trading below $21 a barrel this morning. there is also speculation that sincecan fall the highest july. we'll find out tomorrow when the government releases its latest data. when opec meets next month, it is unlikely to cut production to prop up the price. number one priority right now is finding new members possible. the number of active users on twitter grew in the third quarter but at a slower rate, plus the copy's actual loss got bigger. ceo dick costolo said he wants

to build the largest daily audience in the world and to do that, twitter would have to quadruple its audience to challenge facebook's 1.3 billion users. costello has shaken up's twitter's executive ranks. he is throwing spaghetti at the wall. today costilla will be on bloomberg television at 12:30 p.m. eastern. --are going to stay at west today, dick costolo will be on bloomberg television at 12:30 p.m. eastern. we going to stay west, jack said a good marriage needs both sides hard-working. tim cook was at the same conference and said we are going to talk of a getting married later this week deadline those goes -- later this week. in a pot. are peas >> considering whether to split

into two companies, one of the reasons may be steven balmer, msg put the sports teams and the cable networks in one company real estate, the dogs of entertainment would go in another. the idea would be to unlock value in the rangers and knicks. balmer would not pay that for the new york next. -- knicks. >> if the l.a. clippers are worth $2 billion, than the new york knicks are worth $5 billion. it is all funny money. >> can we make an accurate valuation based on steve ballmer's ego? >> probably not. >> how about our guest host this morning. under 79 yesterday morning him on west00 a.m., $81.36

texas intermediate. belowober 16, oil dipped $80 a barrel, and there is a 20% plastic line with change. it will affect all of the hydrocarbon world including your next gallon of gasoline. i is with bloomberg intelligence. tobias levkovich is with citigroup as we look at saudi arabia and north dakota. tobias, what is add more say about this recent decline in oil -- what does ed morris say about this recent incline and oil? >> it is regional geopolitics king between the saudi arabians and others. he things maybe we will get a bounce and settle around $75 over the next several years. >> vince, i look at others who have been calling for a pullback

from the 100 level. can you bring up my morning must read? the fight for market shares become a bareknuckle affair, call it oil price war three. prices will be allowed to decline until some producers have to cut production or shutdown. what is the ball case for oil right now? think about the demand supply dynamics right now, you have the eagle, the bob can, and you have the permian basin -- >> that is supply coming on. thees, and you look at general averages, but returns are still reasonable in the $70 range that wellt's talk about shutdowns, like midland, texas 30 years ago. shutdown levkovich number three? ballgamea different today versus 30 years ago. you have different efficiencies

that are captured today that were not being captured many years ago. >> you do not have the threat of 30 years ago? >> if you think about these returns, returns are still reasonable and that $70 range. it is when you get to the low 70's, decisions have to be made. the real issue here is -- producers are the low production for fear of disappointing the sell side, for fear of disappointing the investors, so they tend to produce even below those levels. >> let's pull up a chart from golden, the breakeven point for various countries. report. t >> if we look at them as countries, we have got them at a breakeven point of $70 a barrel, just above kuwait. >> you do have that advantage, and you do have the advantage that you have various producers serving various constituencies as opposed to opec country that has to meet social response abilities. meet social

responsibilities. large oil marginal producer in chaos? >> tobias, i want to bring you in here because you noted in your latest research that the plunge in oil prices is linked -- and the credit markets as well, and that is because of the high-yield credit market. 500 ist 8.5% of the s&p energy sector, 4.3% of the russian 2000, 17% behind yield index. it has gone from 8% back in 2008 2 17. up of these mlp's have built pipelines and things like that, and widening and high yield, there's a function of what is going on in the energy market,

and people are taking that and a tripping into the broader economy and the broader market. >> do you think that is value? >> not really. about 13% of earnings comes from energy, 20% comes from consumer staples and consumer discretionary, so you have got this offset on the earnings front. >> how much of that 13% of the s&p 500 energy copy will be of concern not just this quarter but looking up for because of the falling oil prices? >> the next 12 months will not be because of the energy prices shipments. on the cap exide, and that is where i think the great fear is, there is so much investment energy, so much investment people, going up to north dakota and the permian basin, all of edge of thehe margin, we will lose some of it. we are looking at a 4% decline in anticipated capital spending based on what companies are telling us for 20 just in the energy sector. when we talk about

that, we talk about a single decision for production. i am looking up at your report on the permian basin, there are six companies here. is there any kind of tactic coordination where they control price together? or are they competing frantically with each other? >> i think they are serving similar investor bases, but for the most part when you take a look at those returns, in general those returns are still advantageous in the $70 range, so again you want to please the investor base that wants to see that production, that wants to see that reserve growth, and you are hit pretty hard if you raise your hand and say i am cutting back. moments,side of the all the blather from people like me, what is your number one insight right now and hydrocarbons? >> i will give you one, if you take a look at the bi oil equity p or group, the valuations are

approaching where they were in 2008. >> very cool. nce, thank you so much. we will continue with tobias levkovich. >> we going to talk about earnings. we are going to check in with our twitter question of the day. is opec still relevant? we talk about the republic of texas, the state of north dakota, how about opec, tweet us @bsurveillance. >> i are ready have my quote of the day, you are hit pretty hard if you are the hearse person to raise your hands. that is the dynamic right now in the permian basin. >> it is 1986, i say. >> don't panic. "bloomberg surveillance" will be right back. ♪

>> "with all due respect," there is nobody in washington, they are all fighting out for their little lives, it about one week, let's call it next tuesday, don't forget, the focus on washington, the capital, mark halperin in john heilemann. they are loving this moment. we have not gotten much scoop on midterms done >> i am looking at that shot. that is gorgeous. i miss maryland.

>> let's bring about to wall street, though, where earnings season is in full swing. sales increasing at about 5% clip, but the data has confidence, the key outlook for 2014 has yet to be provided. does that mean we are going to meander from here until the end of the year when companies start to give us hints for next year? >> i think so. andhave the fed out there, what will get investors comfortable will be the earnings, but nobody will give you the kind of confidence you need for 2015 this early. i think it is january time frame when companies can provide an outlook that people have confidence in. >> you have got the stronger dollar but also falling oil prices that should provide some kind of boost, right? >> keep in mind 70% of s&p 500 sales are u.s.-derived in the

sense of canada and mexico so heavily influenced by what happens in the u.s. about 11% or so is direct to europe in half of that is nondiscretionary, things that include beverages, tobacco, jobs, the things he will not say wow, if the economy is really tough come on taking half of lipitor, if it is doing great, i will take three lipitor. the amount of sales in europe are pretty to minimus in terms of the overall s&p, so overall, people are taking it a bit too far. >> tobias, i did you the small favor of reading your research know. [laughter] >> that is a "surveillance" exclusive, one of us actually read the note. it challengingnd to be that nervous about u.s. trends barring a new shock. you are a laid back guy. "eh."sence was >> i think people get a little

too hyper at any point in time. people get frothy excited about fourth-quarter rally, santa claus is coming to town, that kind of idea. markety say wait, the was up 7%. so you never got to see the rebound, and that is why i am kind of cool about it. >> tobias levkovich with us. we will continue much more on the equity markets coming up. atf moffett, we will look what you don't know about ceo's. stay with us. "bloomberg surveillance." ♪

>> good morning, everyone. "bloomberg surveillance." scarlet fu and brendan greeley with me. dow futures up 71. let's get to our company news this morning. here is scarlet so. >> federal authorities have new guidelines for treating people with ebola. governors andrew cuomo of new york and chris christie of new jersey say the public is not safe enough.

new york and new jersey have both imposed mandatory quarantines. now we have got company news for you, tom. amazon plans its first facility in illinois. the retailer says it is looking for a possible site selection and a $75 million investment will create more than 1000 jobs by the end of 2017. the new facility is expected to open next year. harvard gets top billing in u.s. news & world report first ever global ranking of universities. the list of 500 schools have m.i.t. and second place followed by the university of california at berkeley. u.s. schools took eight of the top 10 slots. >> i really have issues with those. ucla.k of anderson at >> that is a business school. underrated because they are three time zones away. we will rip up the script ofsively, james moffatt

deloitte, do you really care about magazine-picking lists? >> no. >> thank you. what do you do with those magazine thing is do they go in your head order you throw them in the trash bin? >> they are in the head, but we target different schools -- >> exactly. what is the culture of your anderson at ucla? >> very collaborative, heavily analytical. >> and pragmatic. >> you have got to be in hollywood, right? >> absolutely. >> how does their football team look? but they're are certainly underperforming. i have high expectations. >> he leaned into that, tom. >> i had no clue. moffatt's chairman and ceo of deloitte and the reason

we brought you here is because the dynamic is watch what they do, not what they say, and you guys just released your inaugural report on executive confidence. executivesf american say their confidence, but a must have expressed doubts in their ability to address issues like growth and innovation, so there disconnect. are there at external factors or is this management? >> i think there are external factors that companies are having trouble rebounding from the downturn, and the number one issue that we have seen it for the last three years has been growth. the ability and willingness to invest through down torrents -- through downturns has been a struggle. >> cannot be managed or to you need good old gdp to jumpstart the spirit? >> i think it is both. uncertainty is the new abnormal, and if you are waiting for the markets to rise and washington to get stabilized and peace in

the middle east before you ask, you will get left behind, and leaders need to take bold steps, invest in a long time, invest through uncertainty. building the muscles for organization is going to be a skill that is required. >> is the common theme an unwillingness to spend or inability to fix the problem? will money fix the problem here? >> it is both. one of the interesting things -- we surveyed the executives and there was a lack of competence in action and investment in the long term, so over 50% of the executives admitted that they did not display confidence over long-term investments. to drive growth, you were going to have to invest. we have seen a lot of money sitting on the sidelines. >> does that surprise you, tobias levkovich? i am wondering -- and it is more of a question -- the idea of how much of that lack of willingness is kind of the courage of that ceo to do something because if he fails,

it will get bounced off his position as opposed to underlying economic data? thatthink it is that, confidence through the uncertainty to make those investments. to drive growth, more and more we are seeing requires differentiation, and that oftentimes requires innovation. those are muscles a lot of organizations do not have today. >> just to come back to the you watch capital spending, s&p 500 companies have had record capital spending in 2011, 2012, 2013 and look like they're on their way in 2014 -- >> this is to your point. >> i'm going to pluck a detail that jumped out at me -- nearly three quarters of ceo's do not prioritize investments in both technology and infinite response. i feel like i just had explained to me a years worth of cyber risk headlines. >> that is one of the things we saw -- disconnect between obstacles to growth and then corollary investments, and fiber

was one of them. another is around emerging markets. they are not investing strategies or talents. >> this is the key question with transnational investments, tobias, citigroup with your global projection, are you seeing a rational expiration of what we do in malaysia so we can do misery because we have to do malaysia? >> i think it is the reverse today. e.m. has actually been the area people are most worried about >> do you agree with that, jim? >> absolutely. i spend more time looking at the global economy than just u.s. economy. the markets are so interconnected, people are moving to where the high areas are. >> i know you pose an interesting question, if innovation is natural or needs to be taught. was there any consensus on the answer to that? it was actually split. i think it is a little bit art and science but when you look at the data, most innovation

exercises don't fail because of a lack of idea, it is a lack of execution. >> lack of execution, all right, jim moffatt, chairman and ceo of deloitte. >> coming up, the election is upon us. "with all due respect" tonight at 5:00 p.m. ♪

>> our twitter question of the day -- is opec still relevant? tweet us @bsurveillance. brent and in terms of debbie t i have turned positive. havey i trading at -- wti turned positive, the latter trading at $81. ubs posting third-quarter profits that missed analysts' estimates online ubs is preparing to settle invest igations into currency rigging and have already paid $4 billion in fines. madison square garden considers splitting up into two companies that not it will put sports teams and cable networks in one company and real estate and

entertainment assets in another. the idea is that it would unlock value in the rangers and knicks franchises. r paid $2melme billion for the clippers. google has an looking for ways to generate revenue from youtube, which it acquired back in 2006 4 $1.7 billion. that is the latest company news. >> this matters now to our guest toes, tobias levkovich, chief strategist at citigroup, he is focused on buckets, not binders full of concerned but rather buckets full of concern. what is a concerned bucket? >> it is what people are most focused on. people are most focused on the fed and what they might do and now they are focused on oil prices, european economic activity, potential disinflation, becoming

deflation. >> the cardinal rule is you cannot drive higher on a blended basis unless you have that. climbing the proverbial wall worry, i prefer clips of concern when they get really extended and people get really worry. that is one of the things that has also changed the investors six weeks ago were pretty frothy, and now they are what we call more neutral. i use the description, they are a deer caught in the headlights rather than hunker down in a bunker. they are not panicked, but if they step right or left, they will blow up. >> are equities sustained because there is no place to go ? you do not want to be in bonds or cash. >> it is one of the factors that what is the yield you're getting on your 10-year versus evidence? do you believe markets are overvalued or not? this,as not even aware of tobias, february 2009, up 18%

per year. that is a bull market. no one call for that double-digit euphoria. do you model every day a single digit world? >> we are seeking more of the 7% return world, but it is a little bit unfair to kind of look at this extraordinary downturn and then what has been a nice rebound. >> i want to talk about that later in this hour with you. for right now, on the concerned rockets, how do you dovetail that into how you use economics? morris of the economic team at citigroup? >> we think hawks are the most important factor in terms of cost of capital for investors to make decisions. extraordinarily attractive right now. 30% rates have to get of return to make an investment pay off. they need to get 10 and it is probably going to be very good. if you are a ceo and cannot

figure out how to make 10% return on your money, you probably should not be in that position. >> would you turn the tv off at citigroup in terms of investing? >> i think there is danger to get caught up in the hyper sensationalism of anything. ebola is an example of that right now are you have a couple of very limited cases that people have gotten very, very fearful of. you pretty much calm your innards about it. >> what is the number one concern right now? >> europe. europe is kind of sliding, fighting with the ecb and the bundesbank and things like >> is your team suggesting rescue again? toi think the ecb will have do some sort of qe. >> tobias levkovich of citigroup looking at buckets of concern, one of the major teams each and every day here. >> futures are higher right now, indicating a stronger open for

u.s. stocks. we have a lot of data this morning including durable goods at 8:30 and s&p case schiller with housing prices, a lagging indicator for the month of august on futures up by 9.8 princoints. the 10-year yield inches up higher, 2.28. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance." withbrendan greeley scarlet fu and tom keene. we have some news this morning -- swiss medics, a private coming based in zürich, has an ebola vaccine in trials that will go immediately to west africa to begin those trials and it has been approved on a rapid basis by the swiss regulator. there did not used to be a market for ebola vaccines, but there is now done jeff jonas, you have been tracking pharmaceuticals for 10 years for gabelli funds, is there a real for-profit market for ebola right now? >> i think they are doing it because it is the right thing for society.

they will get funding from the various governments, united nations, bill gates, and paul allen, but i do not think it will be a huge financial driver for the company. >> this is really pr for them. >> yes, again, it is the right thing to do for society, it is great for their image, especially that they can rush the investment and get the products in the clinical trials today, but no, it will not move the needle financially dynamite >> i was intrigued by the fact that the swiss regulatory society approve it on a fast-track basis. do you see the regulatory environment changing in light of a rapidly inventing virus -- advancing virus? >> i think this is a one-off event, and we assume the usda in the u.s. allow a fast-track as well. >> what companies are now working on this where six month ago there were none? >> the first thing you will see is a rapid diagnostic test, so if someone like an associate can

bring that to market in six months to 12 months. with vaccines like johnson & johnson are working on, in trials now, but really that is going to be three years to five years. >> the diagnostic tests are huge because what has that happening doctorse in these without borders hospitals are waiting six hours for a test. >> right, it is you can get coming in 90 minutes, that it's usually -- >> when will that be available? >> six months to 12 months. withu are the pro here pharmacology, and we talked to the doctor yesterday from baylor, what is your framework of numbers of people that will be involved with ebola? if you were to say to glaxosmithkline now, hey, you have to get ready for 50,000 markets, what number do you work with? >> i think it has largely peaked here. nigeria is now free of ebola,

and we have had a crash course here in the u.s. about how to isolate these patients, how the workers should -- >> you do not think the w.h.o. estimate of 10,000 ois valid? >> no. >> can we keep him for the next set? optimistic. >> my morning must-read us from elton john, the musician, who writes in the "new york times," don't forget about aids. americans need to recognize aids for what it has become -- a crisis of stigma, marginalization, and inequality. medical advances like prep can get as close to the end of aids, but only if enough people can afford them. >> that is always going to be a problem here. the rmb clinical trials can cost $1 billion to bring a new drug or vaccine to market, so they absolutely need a return on that. >> is there an ethical responsibility to coming up with unaffordable treatment at least

at the start to stem -- that could become a much bigger pandemic. >> we do it differently around the world. in the u.s., we end up paying very high prices because we are essentially subsidizing india, africa, and other countries where he essentially give it away, so there is that tension between the developed countries and the developing markets. the pharma companies just need to get a return. >> tobias levkovich, what a jump is that? >> we are underweight them. valuation, earnings revision trends have spiked up to very high levels. >> do you agree they are richly priced? >> the valuations have definitely risen. i think that can support these valuations at this level. >> jeff jonas, real quick, one of the things we have been hearing on background is that ll pharma companies are not spent enough on our indy. -- on r&d.

if ity fund that our indy works out, then the big companies will just acquire it, and the way the accounting world works, that is more favorable to their earnings as well. funds, jonas, gabelli thank you very much for coming in this morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance." >> we will be right back. ♪

>> this is "bloomberg

surveillance." i am scarlet fu here with tom keene and brendan greeley. we have been talking about reports up there that mst may split their entertainment ventures into publicly traded companies that betty liuop" anchor joins us. theohn faler his groups, hedge fund manager, got into this company a few month ago and made public that he wanted this company to split, so i was talking to some sources last night who said this is how it kind of went down with nelson peltz eventually joining the board. he will be officially joining dickoard along with parsons and scott sperling. the executive chairman at msg, him and nelson peltz go way back. they love hockey, they have been colleagues as well, so they go way back. jim approached nelson a few months ago when it was known that john taylor was wanting

some change and said look, i need your help come i need to bring us some independent directors, will you join my board and help me assess what to time,ut mst, and for some he was thinking about splitting this company, none of these ceo's or billionaires ever want to feel like they are being forced to do this, so he has recruited nelson tells to help him along, so nelson is going to be joining this board. apparently it was generally a pretty easy and simple discussion and in fact nelson apparently has talks to john faler and gotten his approval for this move, so it appears that this copy will be splitting and buying back about $5 billion worth of shares. and the ballmer purchase of the l.a. clippers for two bullion dollars masonry pretty nice price tag for the new york knicks as well. >> it makes it much more attractive. --io batali, his office

think that anybody who buys a sports franchise aspect is going knicksetting the essentially for free. a topic asmsg is well. is this good for the stock market in terms of valuation? >> some of the most attractive valuation or the really big companies, so you look at the s&p 500, the top 25 companies, look at their pe relative to the rest of the market, they are standing at standard deviation lows. part of it is the sense that they are so good you cannot move the needle and there is crony capitalism on the board, so you can't force it, and the activists have change that. >> i totally agree, and msg is the card-carrying example on that based on people like mr. gabelli. the family shops with its own rules. how do you get the decent tickets at ragngers' games?

>> friends, who are really good friends because i cannot afford to pay for some of the really good ones you saw the picture of me when the canadians lost. activist thing was picked up a while ago saying it has really changed in the u.s. >> yes, and it is causing companies to split up. betty liu "in the loop" begins at 8:00 a.m. for 11:00 a.m. this morning on "market makers." stay with us in new york city, "bloomberg surveillance." ♪

>> good morning, everyone. "bloomberg surveillance." we welcome all of you. brendan greeley, scarlet fu with me. >> twitter needs to find new members fast. ceo dick costolo says it is adding new members and to be numbers grew at a slower rate in the third quarter. as 12%. s down as much by the way, dick costolo will be on bloomberg television at 12:30 p.m. eastern time. t-mobile beats estimates and the 2014 subscriber forecast. the wireless carrier added 1.4 million subscribers, topping

analysts' projections, but it came at a cost. reported a net loss of $.12 per share. and tech titans kick around possibilities, alibaba's jack ma says he is interested in working with apple's tim cook on mobile payments. he said it makes sense for his company's alleipay to team up with apple pay. tim cook called ma a brilliant guy, the kind that apple likes to partner with. >> i feel like there is too much high school crushing and gossip in tech. do you remember when eric schmidt and steve jobs went out to lunch? it was reported they were having a bromance. tobias, do you they attention to this at all? points, as the industry has matured -- >> yes, of course, even when we

talk about excessive valuations in certain areas of tax, at least in most cases the company is profitable, which is way different from back in the late 1990's that >> tobias levkovich with us from citigroup. within the new mediocre, the imf's message on tepid global growth, a struggle for global animal spirit with all of that whethered, you invest it is a 401(k) or you are an institutional pile of cash, tobias knows. he knows the market is up 18% per year in the last half decade , and now we look to your investment future as well. it has been such a ride the just to begin the discussion, are we back in the markets now? >> we are, but we have got to temper our expectations. yield environments, don't expect to pick up 18% in stocks every single year. you have to moderate 7% a year for a number of years is a nice return, and nothing to sneeze at

what they are fearf of is they have missed -- to sneeze at. what they are fearful of is they have missed the slow and eventually they will get dragon but they will probably get dragged in at higher levels. >> there is a psychology of nifty 50 long ago and far away. who are the nifty 50 today? >> it will be in the more exciting tech growth stories. >> johnson & johnson is not a nifty 50? >> know, biotech might be, but not general pharma. boring tech is probably very interesting areas, underinvestment. >> microsoft? specifict going into companies -- >> but companies that pay dividends, buy back their shares -- >> i think you have to get a --tle deeper >> tobias cannot do that as a strategist. i will putadio plus, this out on bloomberg radio plus, and it is simply the s&p

500 back, and you can see the movement higher, brendan, and a goes to the idea that it has been up, up, up. >> i am fascinated that we will just have to come to terms with 7% growth year on year because that is about culture, not economics, and the other part is that people are going to have to put more money away. we don't like to hear that, right you go >> not at all. there is a great discrepancy between the haves and the have-nots, and unfortunately the have-nots have gotten to a point where they don't know how they are going to retire, especially they want to continue spending the way they have done that is a difficult aspect for people to have a lot, you can enjoy both worlds, savings for retirement and living up to standards you want. we have got into a kind of a payment system if you want to think of it -- it is not how muchois a car, it is how $299 afford the $199 or issue.

by thethere was a report "new york times," when you think about that when you buy furniture, and it ends up costing seven times, 10 times as much as it would if you banned with cash. >> writes but nobody wants to wait. t, but nobody wants to wait. >> and corporate profits depend on it. companies come out with new phones and making sure that people upgrade their hardware. >> i got made fun of yesterday in florida because i had an iphone 4. not even 4s. i don't need my phone to talk to me. free, tobiasi- levkovich. >> it is good to frame the markets right now. am i naïve, tobias, that part of this is i need my driver to talk about the markets and i am not hearing that? >> go back six weeks ago, and on del we wereo

flirting with euphoria. we were at 68% -- i'm sorry, 16%, which nobody has heard about macro, and now we are at 68% where people do care about macro. doing see what people are and take away from that. they were much more excited six weeks ago when the market was sitting at its highest, and they got a little shaken insert if you want to get james bond-like more recently. >> the fact that you have an uber driver means you are already on one side of the divide. >> people who drive uber cars and take an uber ride are on two sides of the devide. >> today we have the half, have-nots, and the have-yachts. .001%. 1%, the 3 >> university of california dr.

save has done phenomenal work that it -- >> he is the picket he that did not get the promotion. >> he went west because he wanted to surf -- twrue story. >> i'm keeping an i on facebook and mr. mark zuckerberg, reporting earnings after the bell. he probably will not be hosting the conference call in mandarin. those results cannot after the bell rings after market close is that >> i am really interested in what they do. havee got to admit -- i failed at facebook twice. >> and of course sheryl sandberg will be joining lumber television -- pardon me, i misspoke. that is not happening. >> i'm looking at ebola theater today. in west a real problem africa, one we have no idea how to solve, then we have not a real problem in america, when that we know how to solve. what you have is governor after governor, politicians upping the

ante to see who can be the strictest on ebola. agree, brendan, but in their defense, these guys are just trying to do what they think is right. you say it is more political. >> these people are tried to do moreno, of what they think will look at politically. >> i don't disagree, but i want to be more thoughtful that governors are doing this for the right reasons. [laughter] are you laughing at me? itto be fair, brendan, is wrong to say that politicians are responding to reactions of their -- >> yeah. >> i do not have a vested interest in this -- i am not a politician, but you have governor christie who says ok, he is tried to run for president, so you have got to be tougher, and you have cuomo who has a democrat, and the governor of maryland has now joined -- >> georgia is involved. "with all duelug, respect," 5:00 tonight, i know they will talk about this with

the midterm elections as well what am i looking at? oil prices. that was something, we will have much more on this. >> and that brings us to our twitter question of the day. we asked you all -- is opec still relevant? here are some of the answers. yes, let opec drop production and you will think it is october 1973 all over again. saudi arabia has not done anything and they have remained silent. next answer, still relevant, but with a limited lifespan. yes, opec has- not figured out that $86 is the new floor. is this the new floor? >> let's go quickly to ed morse, not optimistic on the price of oil. >> no, he think that is the mid $70's. >> that one area of support. thank you so much. tobias levkovich with us from citigroup. futures up 10, dow futures up 79, oil $81.48, a comeback off

the brazilian elections. >> we will continue to keep an i on that, oil still in a bear market. "bloomberg surveillance" on radio continues. "in the loop" on bloomberg television is up next. have a great rest of your morning. ♪

>> good morning. it is tuesday, october 28, you are "in the loop," and i am betty liu. we have a great show line up for

you. a view from the top, a ceo powerhouse lineup on the current state of the american consumer. we will get housing ahead of those 9:00 a.m. eastern case schiller numbers, ara hovnanian. and then how is the autonation faring? me,michael jackson joins and we will be rounding out the show with the hotel and services industry, airbnb disrupting hotels, as usual among and choice hotels ceo steve joyce might have some choice words on airbnb. he will be joining us and i like a.m., but first, here they look at our top story this morning, president obama has a czar, butr, an ebola right now the response is anything but coordinator. the governor of new york and new jersey have their own policy on dealing with ebola. they have mandatory quarantines in place. the federal housing