>> in the line up tonight, mitch mcconnell breaks the fourth wall. but first it is one week until election day. we will be out all night. by the time we go to bed we will know which party controls

the u.s. senate. >> there are two things we have determined about election day. one is the chances that we know republicans have the majority if they can -- get the majority of their pretty small. chances are greater than most of the analyst to put on the net realized. we think about election night in terms of the map. the other way to think about it is the clock. restart in the contested senate races. georgia everybody agrees going to a runoff. we will not [indiscernible] >> new hampshire also closes at seven.

jeanne shaheen is likely a winner. for the sake of our exercise let's assume democrats hold that. and let's assume that kay hagan holds it. the race has gotten closer and then kansas at 8 p.m., another one where let's push it to the republicans. democrats might win but let's push it that way. we get from 7:00 p.m., 7:30 p.m., and in 8:00 vm -- 8:00 p.m. we are starting at 8:30 p.m., republicans need six. the win -- they win, those seem pretty safe. we need three more. not all these may be projected. let's see the get colorado.

the louisiana another one that is going over. even more so than georgia. and let's give them alaska at midnight eastern time. and they have one more than they need. they have two overtimes. and you have georgia. if we give the republicans beside the eastern ones, if we give them everything else in none of these going to overtime not because of a runoff but because there is a recount or questions about the alice thing, they are plus seven and then they can afford to lose georgia. >> because of the georgia runoff we will not know that. >> even if they are plus six. we will not know. this is more favorable to

democrats. an independent could win in kansas. the margin of error is very narrow. >> those early poll closings one or both of those goes to the republicans it is clear there is a national tie. >> you have to dwell on that for a second. if we look at those whole closings and they have lost her look like they're going to lose that will be the sign. we could he in bed before alaska. >> republicans say -- their

margin of error is thin for us knowing that and if any of these states can be one, not only thin democrats have a better chance of keeping the majority in. >> president obama gave the nation and ebola up the. addressing the criticism that he and the white house have been getting from states that want to quarantined people returning from west africa. >> we do not just react based on our fears. we react based on facts and judgment. and making smart decisions. that is how we have built this country and sustained this country and protected this country. >> talking about science.

if he winning the public debate and context of the midterms science versus panic. >> there are moments when it is easy to say the public is getting riled up. at this moment it looks like he is winning. rationality is revealing. a majority think that there is not a likely outbreak. they think they are winning. >> if there are instances where they have not gotten sufficient guidelines that could be a problem.

he is being backed up by scientists and editorial boards in some public officials but republicans are hoping not for more people to get ebola but they're hoping that this theme stays live. this is the right thing to do. what science suggests we should do. >> they are saying that data that suggests they are on strong ground and is why they are being tough on these quarantined issues. >> perhaps they will turn to some other issues. >> we have a pop quiz here. who was the deciding vote on obamacare? take a look at these two nearly identical ads.

>> the next word is prior. >> he was the deciding vote. kay hagan was the deciding vote for obama care. >> put aside the bit of recycling going on there. as that an effective ad or ads? >> i believe it is -- leave it to the voters. a lot of these ads will be the closing messages. humor is good and my guess is that when they did the ad the first time it focused are the roofs of their recycling in and they know works well in a different state. >> this is what republicans have

at this point. here is an ad that visit with children and not in a harsh or negative seeming way. >> will take a look at a different ad. one that makes mitch mcconnell seem likable. >> we see you between two trucks. >> that is not going to work. maybe it is not to say which fights for kentucky. maybe this was not such a bad idea. >> two awesome references in there. the guy wearing the hat is larry mccarthy.

and the bloodhounds are referenced to a much earlier ad. that works great because it has got humor. this it make his favorability go up? it does cut through in a positive way and a campaign where he has been pretty negative. >> there has been so much mud thrown around. >> this is one of the few ads i can watch without vomiting.

rex this is game six of the world series. the giants up three games to two. what are the chances that the kansas city royals can win two straight and take the series? >> i will take my bias and this is always the wrong question. the question is can you win one game? the royals can win this game tonight. i think if the royals when we have one game to play. at that point it is a coin flip. >> what people are saying is the giants are a great team. they have been a great team for years and have more experience.

this has been a cinderella story. >> the giants know how to win in the postseason. >> coming up if you have got kids watching you might want to move them to a different room. we will have some blunt talk from missouri senator roy blunt. show me. ♪

>> are just as chairman of the senate republican conference. this gentleman knows a little bit about vote counting. senator lund of mystery, thanks for being with us. the big question.

last month you said you thought there was a good chance your party would take control. is that you being pessimistic or is your party going to blow this? >> we never seen to be quite as good as the other side is. we are better at running the government but not as good as running these campaigns. we are a long way down the road with our candidates turning out to be pretty good candidates all of the country. it surprises me a little bit this has not opened up war that has based on what i see that the problems are. i would not want to trade places with them right now.

they would love to trade with us based on what is likely to happen. >> i republican congress could -- [indiscernible] >> that will be positive for the country and there is a lot of things on harry reid's desk that if they came to the fore they would pass. my guesses without being an expert to hundred of them would get votes. letting every single dollar be challenged as the appropriations process did. something that to the cuts have

done once in five years and that will be the entry-level card as to whether we're serious about being a governing party or if we want to be a complaining party. >> you love your job, nothing wrong with that. we found that no one seems to know what you like to do for fun. what are two things you like to do for fun? >> i do love my job. i still love to be outside and love to be on the farm. i love the turnaround on the occasion they get to do it and look at in a field where i have been somewhere with a track. sometimes you do not get to say here is what i got accomplished. it has been a frustrating time on that front and i hope we can see and -- more accomplishes -- accomplishments. >> our analyst is bringing this

trove of voter data. we will try to have our own election night tonight. back in minute. -- back in a minute. ♪

>> the biggest show on tv next week will be election night. we have some spoilers. talk about your fabulous new story, the persuadables. >> we wanted to step away from the back-and-forth we're saying and look at the fundamentals of the electorate in each of the seven states where there has been a competitive senate election. we had a team of reporters and editors talk to people at the party committees and the campaigns and get their read on how they sees these -- how

they see the states. there is the democratic data from that has access and we tried to reverse engineer the campaign's own plans. one of the things were interested in is taking the mass of voters we call persuadables. and how campaigns would try to isolate them. we saw tickets winners who would have been -- a unique point of entry. >> identified a group as key. why do they matter? that's they were elected in 2008, many for the first time. they dealt with an electorate that had barack obama on the ballot and now they're dealing

with one that is not where he is a factor in the race. we looked to places where kay hagan ran ahead of barack obama in north carolina. the darker counties is where kay hagan over performs. one step -- in one state she ran 15% ahead. if you are going to look for people who could be peeled off from the kay hagan group this is where you want to look. >> this is another stay focused on, i thought. you identified a key voting group. clinton republicans matter more to you. chris have seen bill clinton campaigning a lot recently.

where can he have an impact on voters' opinions? we went to a primary where hillary got over 70% of the vote. arkansas is a state without hearty registration. they have open primaries. any arkansan who is registered could have gone in on every five 2008 and voted in the democratic primary or the republican primary which happen to feature mike huckabee. we mapped out places where republicans were more likely to have chosen to participate in the democratic are married. an indication they were pulled there by the presence of hillary on the ballot. >> let's move to iowa. your the only one i know who has gone to the state fair by public transportation. here is a branch of democrats.

>> he consistently over performs what you would expect from a typical republican. the question was where does he have particular poll for democrats especially if he is going to be one of the people vouching for joni ernst. we went in and i looked in the top five counties and you have the average share of the vote. there are some counties where it is 15%. the average statewide was under 7%. that will be a place where you will target communications that basically emphasize the fact that your -- you are endorsed. >> this is we're the largest counties are the state -- of the

state are. >> this is a significant share of the electorate and some of the most populous counties of the state. >> let's move to colorado. you have identified a group that is close to my own heart. the colorado pothead republicans. talk about who they are and why they might the decisive. >> the darker colors is where proposition 64 which is where the recreational pot campaign was in -- the campaign did best. the initiative was four points better and of you for those crossover voters republicans places where people were voting for mitt romney and the pot

initiative, it is possibly a place if where you are mark udall you would direct some of that message around social issues. these are probably more libertarian minded socially. >> what is the probability they were high when they voted? >> yes. you have to realize there is that adjustment going on here somewhere. >> thank you for being here. we will be right back. ♪

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>> i am pimm fox and this is what i am taking stock of on tuesday, october 28, 2014. reporting third-quarter revenue that topped estimates. investors did not forget about twitter's earnings. reports of disappointing growth triggered selloffs. the stock lost 10%. dick costolo told us what his number one. >> that is that group of 280 million active users who login. we want