>> i am mark halperin. >> i'm john heilemann. with all due respect, we are the ones tossing the shutout tonight. sports fans in the lineup tonight. mitch mcconnell breaks the fourth wall. the giants haven't broken the royals spirits, looks like they're breaking their backs. but first it is one week until election day. we will be up all night. mark, what do you think the chances are that by the time we

go to bed, we will know which party controls the u.s. senate. >> what have we been doing all day, playing with maps and clocks. there are two things we have determined about election day. one is the chances that we know republicans have the majority, if they can -- get the majority are pretty small. the democrats chances of keeping the majority are greater than most analysts put odds on realized. >> very precise odds. >> let's go to our wall. we think about election night in terms of the map. another way to start thinking about it is the clock. the poll closings are when races can be projected, when in theory voting stops. we start in contested races in georgia. 7:00 eastern time. georgia and new hampshire. georgia everybody agrees going to a runoff. a republican held seat. we won't know -- >> it is going to factor in big later. >> new hampshire closes at 7:00. even some republicans say that

jeanne shaheen is likely to win. for the sake of our exercise let's assume democrats hold that. and let's assume that kay hagan holds it in north carolina. the race has gotten closer, and -- let's give them both. then kansas at 8 p.m., another one where let's push it to the republicans. democrats might win, but let's push it that way. >> the independent, you mean. >> at the end of these we get to 8:00 p.m. 7:30one overtime, two the democrats hold, one republican. a wash. we are starting at 8:30 p.m. republicans need six. let's say they win west virginia , montana, south dakota, those seem safe. magic number is three. not all these may be projected.

let's see colorado. louisiana another one that is going to overtime, even more likely than georgia. they still need one. give them iowa at 10:00 and alaska at midnight. now they they have one more than they need. but they have two overtimes. louisiana and georgia. if we give the republicans besides the eastern ones, if we give them everything else in none of these going to overtime not because of a runoff but because there is a recount or questions about the balloting, then they are plus seven and then they can afford to lose georgia in the runoff. but if they are anything short of the seven because of the georgia runoff we will not know that night. >> even if they are plus six. we will not know. assuming georgia goes to a runoff. this could be even more favorable to democrats.

knowing that night, we have not talked about kentucky. that is a race democrats could win. they could win in kansas. all races where -- michele knight good -- michele knight on could break through in georgia. in terms of knowing control that night, hard for us to know. >> >> those early poll closings new hampshire and north carolina, if one or both of those goes to the republicans it is clear there is a national tide. they could be plus nine by the end of the night and georgia would not matter. >> you have to dwell on that for a second. if we look at those whole closings and they have lost her -- the early poll closings and they have lost or look like they're going to lose, that will be the sign we can be in bed before alaska. a republican way. >> but we talked to republicans who say it is tough to be hagan

-- beat hagan or shaheen. the margin of error is thin. if any of the states can be won. democrats have a better chance of keeping the majority then the conventional wisdom. >> we will not know the answer until january, we both think at this point. >> when the georgia recount is in. >> president obama gave the nation an ebola update addressing in part the criticism he has been getting from states -- giving states who want to quarantined people. >> we don't just react based on our fears. we react based on facts and judgment. and making smart decisions. that is how we have built this country and sustained this country and protected this country. >> classic barack obama pastor toward a complicated -- posutture

towards a coveted issue. science versus panic. >> there are moments when it is easy to say the public is getting riled up. there was a poll a few weeks ago that two thirds of americans thought an outbreak was likely. at this moment it looks like he is winning. rationality is revealing. some people at the white house sent around a poll that said look at the numbers, a majority think that there is not a likely outbreak. ehire majority, 70% have faith in the federal government. they think they are winning. i think they are right. >> we said all along if there are instances where they have not gotten sufficient guidelines that could be a problem. but the president came out today with his core message how he approaches almost every issue. science and logic matter.

he is being backed up by scientists and editorial boards in some public officials but republicans are hoping not for more people to get ebola but they're hoping that this theme stays live. the president went right into it politically and said, this is the right thing to do. what science suggests we should do. >> they are saying that data that suggests they are on strong ground and is why they are being tough on these quarantined issues. why they don't want to back down in the face of governors who don't think the direction is justified. >> perhaps they will turn to some other issues. [laughter] >> we have a pop quiz here. who was the deciding vote on obamacare? was it mark pryor or kay hagan or both of the above? take a look at these two nearly identical ads from karl rove's super pac empire. one against pryor and another

against hagan. >> the next word is pryor. >> you next word is hagan. >> mark pryor with the deciding vote for obamacare. >> kay hagan was the deciding vote for obama care. >> pryor o-b-a-ma. >> hagan, o-b-a-m-a. >> put aside the date of recycling going on. is that an effective ad or ads? >> and the to the voters. a lot of these ads will be the closing messages. you need something that breaks through. if you are going on a theme they both are with the president humor is good and my guess is , that when they did the ad the first time it focus grouped through the roof. >> this is what republicans have

at this point. here is an ad that visits with children and not in a harsh or negative seeming way. even though it is very negative. >> we will take a look at a different ad. one taking on the herculean task of making mitch mcconnell theme -- wait for it -- likable. >> people tell me try to do my commercials. >> we see you between two trucks. >> that sounds dangerous. ♪ >> we had you and bloodhounds. >> maybe it is not to say "mitch fights for kentucky." >> two awesome references. go ahead -- the guy wearing the hat is larry mccarthy. who looks just like steven spielberg. a longtime advocate for republicans.

>> famously very negative ad maker. and the bloodhounds are referenced to a much earlier ad. one of the most famous. that works great because it has got humor. this it make his favorability go up? no. but it does cut through in a positive way and a campaign where he has been pretty negative. >> there has been so much mud thrown around. this is a bit of an effort maybe too little, too late, to rise above. >> make people feel happy about voting at a time of the cycle when there has been a lot of negativity. >> he will not win because people suddenly started feeling warmly about mitch mcconnell. >> but that is a very entertaining ad. >> one of the few i could watch more than once without vomiting. >> dogs and trucks and larry mccarthy. all right.

tonight 8:00 eastern time, game six of the world series. the giants up three games to two. as a huge giants fan, you are not unbiased, but what are the chances the kansas city royals america's sweethearts, can win two straight and take the series? >> i will take my bias and this is always the wrong question. the question is can you win one game? then can you win one? the royals can win tonight. the picture for the giants has been hammered by the royals. he is the weak link in the rotation. if the royals win tonight we have a one-game playoff in kansas city. at that point it is a coin flip. >> what people are saying is the giants are a great team. they have been a great team for years and have more experience. the royals this has been a

, cinderella story. but cinderella against a powerhouse. >> the giants know how to win in the postseason. it's a different thing. they are very good at it. >> coming up if you have got kids watching you might want to move them to a different room. when we come back we will have some blunt talk from missouri senator roy blunt. show me. ♪

>> our guest is chairman of the senate republican conference. before that he was republican with in the house of representatives. the most efficientwhip operation ever. this gentleman knows about vote counting. the big question for you and a lot of people is control of the senate.

last month you said you thought there was a good chance your party what take control. then, if anyone can mess this up, my side has the capacity to figure out how to turn a 65% chance into a 25% chance. is that you being pessimistic or is your party going to blow this? >> we never seen to be quite as good as the other side is. we are better at running the government but not as good as running these campaigns. we are a long way down the road with our candidates turning out to be pretty good candidates all of the country. that appear not to create problems for themselves or anybody else. it surprises me a little bit this has not opened up more than has based on what i see that the problems people are concerned about, defending the country and running the government, the economy. but i would not want to trade places with them right now. they would love to trade with us

based on what is likely to happen. >> let's talk about specific things. legislation or other actions you think republicans in congress could and would pass of the white house could and would sign. >> getting back to the work of the congress doing what it is supposed to, that will be positive for the country. a lot of things on majority leader read's desk that if they came to the forward pass -- floor would pass. my guess is 225 of them would easily get 60 votes. going through the appropriations bills for the first time in years. we sort of forgot what we are for as a country. a republican congress letting every single dollar be challenged, as the appropriations process always did, is a good thing. it starts with passing a budget

something democrats in the senate have only done once in five years. that will be the entry level as to whether we are serious about being a governing party or just want to be a complaining party. >> you love your job. but we did a fair amount of reporting and found that nobody seems to know anything you do for fun. what are things you like to do for fun? >> i do love my job. my mom and dad were dairy farmers. i love to be outside and on the farm. i love the turnaround on the occasion they get to do it and look at in a field where i have been somewhere with a track. the frustrating part of what we do was sometimes you don't get to say here is what i really got accomplished. it has been a frustrating time on that front and i hope we can see more accomplishments. >> thanks for joining us. >> next, our analyst is bringing his trove of voter data.

we will try to have our own election night tonight. back in a minute. ♪

>> the biggest show on tv next week will be election night. if you don't want to know how it ends, stop watching now because we have spoilers. the ll cool j of data. talk about your fabulous new story, the persuadables. >> we wanted to step away from the back-and-forth we're saying and look at the fundamentals of the electorate in each of the seven states where there has been a competitive senate election. we had a team of reporters and editors talk to people at the party committees and the campaigns and get their read on how they see the states. i worked with a team from

clarity campaign labs, which is a democratic data firm that has access to underlying voter files and other materials, and we tried to reverse engineer the campaign's own plans. to show voters what the electorate looks like. one of the things were interested in is taking the mass of voters we call persuadables. the one whose opinions can actually move over the course of a campaign. unpacking who they were and how campaigns would try to isolate them. we found particular groups of ticket-splitters, voters who might have a unique point of entry. >> one of the groups in north carolina the anti-obama haganianccs. >> the democrats running for reelection, they were all elected in 2008, many for the first time. they dealt with an electorate that had barack obama on the ballot and now they're dealing

with one we that doesn't. we looked to places where kay hagan ran ahead of barack obama in north carolina. the darker counties is where kay hagan over performs. 1/5 of these crossover voters were -- in one state she ran 15% ahead. if you are going to look for people who could be peeled off from the kay hagan group this is where you want to look. >> this is another stay focused -- state you focused on arkansas. mark pryor is in a significant amount of trouble. not far behind. you identified a key voting group. you call clinton republicans. people talk about clinton democrats, but clinton republicans matter more to you. >> we have seen bill clinton campaigning a lot recently. he had a role as a surrogate.

the question is, where can he impact voters' opinions? we went to a primary where hillary got over 70% of the vote against obama. one of her strongest states. arkansas is a state without party registration. they have open primaries. any arkansan who is registered could have gone in on every five -- february 5 2008 and voted in the democratic primary or the republican primary which happen to feature mike huckabee. we mapped out places where republicans were more likely to have chosen to participate in the democratic primary. an indication they were pulled there by the presence of hillary on the ballot. >> let's move to iowa. a state i like to talk about because you are the only one i know who has gone to the state fair by public transportation. [laughter] you have branstad democrats.

>> terry branstad is a statewide ballot for 35 years now. he consistently over performs what you would expect from a typical republican. he pulls in democrats and independents. the question was where does he have particular pull for democrats especially if he is going to be one of the people vouching for joni ernst. we went in and i looked in the top five counties and you have the average share of the vote. there are some counties where it is 15%. the average statewide was under 7%. that will be a place where you will target communications that basically emphasize the fact that you are branstad-endorsed. >> this is we're the largest counties are the state -- of the state are. >> this is a significant share

of the electorate and some of the most populous counties of the state. >> let's move to colorado. you have identified a group that is close to my own heart. the colorado pothead republicans. talk about who they are and why they might the decisive. on this map the darker colors is where proposition 64 which is where the pro-legalization or recreational pot campaign in 2012 did best. it ran 4% ahead of barack obama who got 72 -- i52% of the vote. the crossover voters republicans voting for mitt romney and the pot initiative

it is possibly a place if where you are mark udall you would direct some of that message around social issues. around women's issues. these are probably more libertarian minded, socially. socially liberal republicans with party attachment to the republican party but a willingness on some issues to break off from them. >> the ones who voted for mitt romney and the pot initiative -- what is the probability they were high when they voted? >> yes. you have to realize there is bad judgment going on somewhere. >> thank you very much. he is awesome. we will be right back. ♪

>> we are live 24/seven on bloombergg politics. mark's book " double down" is in

paperwork. >> scratch and sniff. >> pop-oup? >> no pop-ups.

>> i am pimm fox and this is what i am taking stock of on tuesday, october 28, 2014. facebook reported third-quarter revenue that topped estimates. mobile technology leading the way in ad sales. investors did not forget about twitter's earnings. reports of disappointing growth triggered selloffs. the stock lost 10%. chief executive dick costolo told us what is number one for him and his company. >> in a group of 280 million active users who login. we want to focus on growing that.