tv Bloomberg Bottom Line Bloomberg October 31, 2014 2:00pm-3:01pm EDT
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>> from bloomberg world headquarters in new york, i'm mark crumpton. this is "bottom line." ♪ >> to our viewers here in the united states and those of you joining us from around the world, welcome. we have full coverage of the stocks and stories making headlines today. olivia sterns looks at the hollywood horror movies that just won't die. another challenge to obamacare at the u.s. supreme court. peter cook looks at the campaign
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ad that scored and the ones that late in a -- laid an egg. let's get you right to the top stories we're following on this friday. an unexpected boost in stimulus from the bank of japan is spurring optimism in the global economy. the doj concerned it won't be able to reach its 2% inflation target. earlier we talked with the chief investment officer of global credit at pimco. he said monetary policy is the only option for europe and for japan. >> the reality is that with that level of high in europe and japan, monetary policy is the only option. you are going to see the central banks all over the world go more all in then you think because monetary policy is really the only game in town right now. >> the equity markets apparently liking what they heard in the united states. on wall street, dow jones industrial average is up nearly rise for%, 152 point
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the dow. at 500 index is up as well 2011. the nasdaq composite index is up about one point 25%. the economy will be front and center when president obama meets with fed chair janet yellen. the white house says the meeting will focus on the long-term economic forecast. the president reached out to female voters in providence, rhode island four days ahead of u.s. midterm elections. he spoke about women and the economy at a rally after holding a roundtable discussion on the topic with a smaller group at the college. many women are working hard to support themselves and their families. they are still facing unfair choices, outdated workplace policies. back, but it holds all of us back. we have to do better because
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women deserve better. by the way, when women do well, everybody does well. [applause] the president's approval rating among women now is about even with that of men. that is according to the gallup tracking poll. a judge has rejected the bid to restrict the movements of the nurse who defy the state posse ebola quarantined. rse shouldruled the nu continue monitoring and coordinate travel with state officials so the monitoring can continue. showingshe's not symptoms, the judge said she's not infectious. who treated ebola patience in sierra loan said confinement violates her rights. symptoms andhas no poses no risk to the public. madison square garden beat revenue estimates. sales from his concerts and events rose. the msg explores a split into two companies. the company reported a profit after selling its fuze network.
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that is a look at the top stories we're following at this hour. the fate of the affordable care act, also known as obamacare, is once again enhance of the nation's highest court. by years after upholding it a single vote, supreme court justices are set to hear whether there should be an appeal of the law. bloomberg supreme court reporter greg joins me now from washington. what is the legal issue that the justices will be looking at? >> unlike the last time where he was about a big constitutional question, this is a controversy of over four words in the statute. established by the state. the law says if you buy insurance on an online exchange established by the state, you get tax credits and those tax credits are worth billions of dollars across the board. the question is whether those --
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if you can get those tax credits if you buy the insurance instead on a federal exchange, which is in the case -- the case in 36 of the states. >> if the court does take up the appeal and rule against the obama administration, what's the likely fallout? >> it will be very big. some people say it will just gut the statute. be seen what steps the administration and state can take to define another way to provide the tax credit. credits, without them all sorts of people would not be able to afford insurance. everybody agrees on that. if those people can't afford insurance, it very much changes the marketplace. it changes their models for what their prices are going to be. you could get into what some economists call a death spiral, where only the most desperate people are the ones who are buying individual policies. is interesting because the
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last ruling a couple of years on this a couple of years ago, obamacare survived by one vote and that was the vote of the chief justice, justice roberts. does this invalidate that prior decision? >> is a practical matter, it could if the court agrees to take it up. what we're waiting for is the court to say whether it will hear this challenge. they have a private conference today and they could announce as soon as monday whether they will take up the case. a question that we don't know the answer to is, is the chief justice, who was so pivotal to years ago, does he have any interest in getting back into this issue? it could be he says i cast my vote there and i don't want to take it up again. >> is this a case of the usual suspects? it is a republican backed challenge. it is an ideological challenge to the law. we are fighting about very different issues. we are talking about questions of statutory interpretation.
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from aoking at them legal standpoint, it tends to be the more conservative justices who will say i'm going to hold congress to the words of the statute. justice scalia would be amenable to this argument both from a legal standpoint and perhaps from an ideological standpoint. >> this is not about nuance in the language. this is about specificity, what the law says, how it reads. >> right. the opponents of the administration in this case say the law is very clear. it says established by the state. the irs issued a rule that said do we look at the law as a whole, do we look at the purpose of it -- it is clear to us that congress wanted tax credits to be available no matter where you buy your policy, whether it was a federal exchange or estate exchange. it is two different ways of approaching how you interpret a statute. >> before i let you go, we are hearing word that a decision could come next week. it could come the day before the midterms. is that a coincidence? coincidence.e a
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the fact it is on the court cost private conference calendar for today is just a clerical matter. the way the court has been operating now, on monday they might announce they are not going to take the case. if they voted to take the case, the practice these days is to wait a week or so to make sure the case doesn't have any hidden problems. we probably won't get that word for least another week. >> i know you are up there all the time at the court and on capitol hill. what is the conventional thinking? are you hearing from people, how they feel the court will rule one way or the other? >> it depends on which side of the case you talk to people on. one thing that is really changed that lowerate is courts at one point were divided, federal appeals courts were divided on how to interpret this provision. one of these courts, the d c circuit here in washington, has decided to reconsider its ruling
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with the full-court. eliminated the circuit split that usually necessitates supreme court involvement and certainly reduce the odds that the court will actually take it up. joining us from our washington bureau. thanks so much. always a pleasure to talk to him. he's the best supreme court reporter in america. that's not my opinion. i believe he is. we will look at the winners and the losers. ♪
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>> in this year's midterm elections, americans have had to adsre 3 million political traded the price tag for all the airtime, the wesley immediate project says $1.7 billion. peter cook has been glued to the tube in search of the most memorable ads, and he has the crossed eyes to prove it. what did you find? painfuls been a experience, mark, listening to all these ads in the past couple of days. i have found some memorable ones, ones that were effective, ones that probably should not have been selected by the candidates, should not have been put on the airways. of this campaign season is from iowa joni ernst, the republican senate candidate, introducing herself to the voters with this at a few months ago. she got national attention for it. take a listen. >> i'm joni ernst. i grew up castrating hogs on an iowa farm. when i get to washington, i will know how to cut pork. >> joni ernst.
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mother, soldier, conservative. really didat ad capture a lot of attention when it was first introduced in iowa and still to this day it resonates as may be the most effective, the most well-known ad of this campaign season. it is helping joni ernst. she is in a tight race in iowa. she could actually win it. >> don't even know what to say. let's move on. another tight race is in north incumbent senator kay hagan. there is the crossroads gps. what does that look like? >> this is an interesting ad. there has been a big role for outside groups in these campaigns. no more so than in north carolina. this is an ad by crossroads gps. the big effort here is to try to link democratic senate candidates to president obama. it is called spelling bee. >> can i hear it in a sentence? >> kay hagan was the deciding
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vote for obama care. [indiscernible] >> your next word is hagan. >> that ad was re-created in multiple states around the country. mark pryor face the same ad with the same little girl. was still an effort on democrats' parts to try to distance themselves from president obama so they could not be tagged like that. watch how allison lundgren grimes did it. >> i'm not barack obama. i disagree with him on guns, coal, and the epa. hold athat's not how you gun. mitch mcconnell wants you to think i'm barack obama. >> with that and she is grading distance with barack obama, also taking aim at mitch mcconnell. she is doing it with the barrel of a gun at her side, something you could argue might lay in a place like kentucky -- play in a place like kentucky.
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>> any of these ads really resonating with voters, or are they like you when you went through these ads, they are saying enough already? thate polling shows americans say they hate these ads, they don't want to see anymore of them, but they still work. in the final month of the campaign 52 percent totally negative against the other candidate. only 26% positive in terms of the senate races, which are the most important right now. >> peter cook, you ought to get a medal for sitting through all those ads. let's look at how investors will be affected by the results of tuesday's midterms. the chief political strategist at potomac research group joins me now. good to see you again. >> great to see you, mark. >> before we get into this, you were just watching that segment with peter. you have seen so many ads in your career. thewe at the bottom of barrel where it has gotten so
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negative that you can't even tell where a candidate tom a which side they are coming from? >> we are getting there. i recall in 1964, lbj had an ad on barry goldwater that is still infamous in the history of advertising. >> the mushroom cloud, right? >> that was a rough one. these are pretty nasty and redundant. i have been all over the country the last few weeks. there is a common theme, as peter said, and that is tying the democrats to obama. a vote for the democrats is simply a vote for obama. that has got real traction. say that the u.s. senate is at stake, but aren't the last two years of the obama administration really what is in jeopardy here? >> yeah, i think he will be probably neutered by this election. he probably won't be able to get anything done. he might have to certainly veto any effort to kill obamacare.
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other than the pen, he will not have much power. >> we were just speaking in the intro about what investors are going to be looking for. what are some of the issues that will have them glued to the midterms? >> there are some interesting angles for investors. i think the republicans will reject ted cruz and the desire really confrontation and nasty, strident issues. i think the republican pragmatists like mcconnell and countrywant to show the they can govern. they have a really tough election against hillary clinton, in all likelihood, in 2016. i don't see any government shutdown or debt ceiling crisis. i think you will see the pragmatists rule. beyond that, there will be an effort to modify obamacare. taxink killing the device has a real chance. it will go right after keystone pipeline him a force them into a veto fight, maybe they will get a compromise out of him.
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is big story in my opinion the strong support among most republicans.. >> to >> begin work on tax reform -- to begin work on tax reform. >> will the gubernatorial races have impact? voters tend to vote along the party line. gotten as mucht publicity, but you look at wisconsin, scott walker in a tough race. you look at several races around the country. you look at brownback, for example, in kansas, who may be a conservative republican who will lose. the one that really interests me the most is in all places, rhode island. general mile has a chance to win. she's a democrat who talks about curbing the excesses of public employee unions, curbing coal, things like that. if a democrat can get away with that and win that caught -- win, that has real applications. or three races you
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have got to say will determine the senate. i think iowa is in that mix. i certainly think colorado is in that mix. if cory gardner wins, and he's ahead by a couple of points now, it's going to be hard for the democrats to keep the senate if they can hold onto colorado. i'm probably looking at colorado more than any other state in the senate right now. to give thes going president and congressional democrats credit for what many economists recall -- call an economy that is gaining momentum, finally? >> you look at the stock market today, all-time high for the dow. you look at gdp, up 3.5%. toould argue it comes down one factor. that is disposable income, or purchasing power. people's purchasing power has been stagnant since 2008. that has more weight with more voters than any of the statistics have seen in the last few months. >> which part of the electorate holds the balance of power next
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week tom a hispanic americans, african americans, women, independents? >> you look at this tremendous coalition that defeated mitt romney two years ago. a lot of young people, a lot of women, a lot of minorities. will they turn out in those kinds of numbers that they did two years ago next tuesday night? most people say no. it's a little tricky to poll in some states. is thatcrats' only hope some of those voters who turned out two years ago will decide the last minute they will go out and vote. >> in our last 30 seconds, what happens? will democrats retain control of the senate? >> the easiest call in my career is that the house stays overwhelmingly republican. the senate is a tough call. i would say there is a 65% chance that republicans get their net of 6. they lose one, maybe georgia, but the republicans will take up seven seats held by the democrats. i think the republicans will take the senate.
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>> chief political strategist, potomac research group joining us from washington. greg, it's always a pleasure. thanks for your time. marketsget an on the check from julie hyman as we continue to follow the halloween rally on wall street. later, new york mets star pitcher matt harvey on the world series and his efforts to get the mets back in their winning ways. ♪
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is on the markets. here is our senior markets correspondent, julie hyman. halloween, it's not so scary on wall street. >> it's not, especially surprising given what we saw a couple weeks ago. we have recouped all of the losses and then some. we now have new records again for the s&p 500 and the dow jones industrial average. bank of japan adding stimulus to boost the economy in japan. that is boosting stock markets around the world. if you look at what is going on in treasuries, you are seeing a decline in price. the bank of japan movement. on the 30-year, we are seeing a decline in yields. very little change there. julian robertson of tiger management on bloomberg "surveillance" earlier today talking about a potential bubble in the bond market as a result of the stimulus we have seen in the u.s. and now beginning around the globe. let's take a look at the yen. it has dropped to its weakest
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>> welcome back to the second onf-hour of "bottom line" bloomberg television. i am mark crumpton in new york. virgin galactic has reported an unspecified problem during a test flight of its spaceship space tourism rocket. the company tweeted that it was flying under rocket power and had experienced an in-flight anomaly,". the tweet said more information will be forthcoming. it fire department reports is heading to a location in the mojave desert. underhip two has been development at mojave air and
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space port in the desert northeast of los angeles. want to play a game? remember that bloodcurdling tagline from "saw"? in honor of halloween -- i'm not there yet. [laughter] re-releasing the horror hit. it is back in theaters for one week, starting tonight, and it is the perfect example of how certain horror franchises never seem to die. sterns has been digging into the economics of these frightening flicks and she joins us now with more. why are they still so profitable? >> you said it was a delight. that is the tagline from "saw" -- we want to play a game -- do you want to play a game? blood and gore come cheap. there have now been seven "saw's ." the franchise has brought in nearly $900 million. the amount they spent to produce all those films, under $50
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million. the margin on that is truly incredible. i spoke to mark burg, the producer of the "saw" films. here is what he had to say about why horror flicks are so popular. >> just look at "annabel" that just came out. that movie was made for approximately $6 million. i think they already crossed the $200 million worldwide average. underring" was made for $20 million. our first "saw" was made for $1 million. the last "saw" was made for $15 million. they don't cost a lot. >> there are a few key ingredients why you are able to get such paranormal profits. the first reason is you don't need to pay big bucks for the big stars. the star of a horror film is simply the title. that is why you can have [indiscernible] that briefly to my second point. you can have sequels, prequels,
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and spinoffs. horror movies can live on forever. finally, perhaps even most importantly, they tend to air before halloween. that is the sweet spot for the box office. you have a lot of summer blockbusters, a lot of holiday blockbusters, but there's kind of a lull in the middle of the autumn. that's when they roll out the horror films. >> which what is your favorite? >> i can't watch any of these, are you kidding? "jaws" is probably my favorite and also the most frightening. if you look at the numbers, it is one of the highest grossing horror films of all time. do you have a favorite? >> "the exorcism." no doubt. still nasty after all these years. >> part of the reason they can't make more exorcists is because of the age of the actors. there you go. olivia sterns with some hollywood films that are still bloodcurdling. >> i will leave you with this, because i know it is halloween and you are a little afraid of the dark. [laughter]
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>> breaking news at this hour, you are looking at a live shot, a helicopter looking for the red -- wreckage as virgin atlantic reported an unspecified problem during a test flight of its spaceship two tourism space rocket. the company tweeted that experienced an in-flight anomaly. the tweet saying that more information would be
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forthcoming. kern county fire department reporting that it was headed to a location in the mohave desert. spaceship two has been under development at mojave air and space port in the desert, northeast of los angeles. we will continue to follow that story and bring you more details as soon as we get them. it is now time for today's latin america report. investors aren't happy with resilient voters. they reelected president dilma rousseff. the correction may open up some opportunities there. earlier we spoke with a portfolio manager royce funds, director of international research. >> you could have a scenario where over the next four years of her second term -- she probably wants to go out with a better legacy than her first term -- when the stock market lost a quarter of its value, the theto is down by third -- market does better when investors are expecting either because of her or despite her. >> argentine currency traders are paring expectations for a
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weaker pace. the central bank head has slowed the pace of depreciation and ordered grades on brokerages where the peso is almost 70% weaker than the official rate. that is your latin america report for this friday. on sunday, about 50,000 runners for more than 175 countries are expected to participate in the new york city marathon. runners will be women. for more on the growth of the running industry, molly o'keefe joins me here in studio. welcome to bottom line. thanks for your time. why so many women? look back even 15 years ago, a lot of charity drove women into the sport. nowadays, social media to women wanting to encourage friends, family getting involved. we see that social media is really driving a lot of they -- >> would this growth have happened without social media? >> i think so. you are able to track it more. running is such a community sports anyway.
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women turn to it a little bit more. they are really into the half marathons right now. they're finishing really strong with marathons and outnumbering men in a lot of areas. ofhow is the retail side running changed? >> a lot of the larger big-box out areas forving women so they can have a special experience. a lot of us are moms and shopping for our children. what are you doing when you are in store? you should have a great experience. >> what about the tech angle? well.s a medical angle as you have the wearable monitoring devices. they lead to more awareness of your health and fitness. has this led to more people taking up running as well? >> it definitely has. technology has been part of the sport forerunners for years. the fact that they are improving so much is really attracting people to stay. tracking what they are reading, the amount of calories. you kind of compete with yourself when you are using that technology. >> talk about why running is so
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popular. t's because you don't need a gym membership. all you need is a pair of sneakers and a great place to run. >> absolutely. the one thing about it -- anyone can do it. no matter size, shape, whoever you are, you can take up the sport. it is still the number one participatory sport of high schools. what other sport can be competed on the same field as an elite athlete? >> you mentioned the discipline. ,t takes discipline to get up not to get on a treadmill, not to run at the gym, but to run outside in all kinds of weather regardless of the time of year and say i'm just going to stick with it. >> absolutely. and it is great apparel. great technology as well. we want to look good while we are doing it, but we have a lot of the tech pieces that keep us warm or protect us from the heat. >> you just came back from the chicago marathon. what are ideal weather conditions like for a marathon?
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what might meet expected this sunday for new york? >> ideal conditions are mid 50's. you don't want any rain. you don't want any moisture. what we are hearing from sunday is a bit windy, which is a bit of a struggle. it creates more resistance on some parts of the course. we may not see some incredibly fast times. it should be comfortable. publisher ofefe, "runner's world" magazine, running enthusiast joining us here in new york. it's a pleasure to meet you. >> same here. >> we have headlines on that story we were telling you a few minutes ago about virgin galactic, space two. we will have that and more when "bottom line" continues in a moment. ♪
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are unknown. the company tweeted that station two was flying under rocket power and experience an in-flight anomaly. spaceshiptwo has been under development at mojave space and airport. we will give you more information on that as soon as we get it. let's switch gears. now that the world series is over, baseball's business season is underway. as of thursday, 121 layers became free agents. does free agency have any effect on the balance of power in baseball? elbow injury forced him to miss the entire 2014 season, but he's on the mend and is anxious to get back on the mound, as are all of us who are mets fans. it's a pleasure to meet you. welcome to "bottom line." some teams have money to burn, but it does not guarantee a
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championship. the kansas city payroll at the start of 2014 was under $100 million. does team chemistry trump big money? >> i think so. you look at that team, and it was guys who came up in the organization together from the beginning and build relationships, build a bond that would carry them to the next level. force and lot of aggression, and they made it happen. >> they certainly channeled it. players like yourself are paid for your talent and you put fans in the seats as well. does a huge contract hurt a club's attempt to build talent around you in a drive for a championship? >> i don't think so. you need your big money guys. for baseball, it has obviously shown that every team has those guys, every team i should say, a big market guy.
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going,eps the balance and really helps the team. moving forward, you need that. you need guys who are making league minimum. you need guys who are making $25 million. obviously as an athlete, you work so hard to make a living and we play our best to make a good living. >> when you signed with the mets, did the timor major league baseball insist that you get a financial planner? sometimes we hear the stories about young guys who make a lot of money and within 10 years, they are broke. agents,en that and your i think it is a big thing. it is very important. drafted, it was something that i obviously didn't know that much about. i did not go to college to manage my own money. thatng a group and a team
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can not only educate you on where your money is and what is going on with it, but also show you how things are done. for me, that was a very important thing. i think for all players it is a very important thing. >> when an athlete receives a multimillion dollar contract, is he or she ever really prepared for all of that money coming in? [indiscernible] a professional baseball player, but then you realize this is a business and they are going to pay me a ton of money. >> it is obviously something you dream of as a kid, but when it becomes realistic you kind of look and it is a little overwhelming at times. you have so many assets you need to protect. team, having that party that you can really trust and support makes it all that easier. >> the world series is over.
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did having a veteran team give the giants an edge here? >> i think so. the way madison bumgarner pitched, the performance he did was absolutelyes incredible. those guys having like we said, the good bond those guys have played with each other for so long, they knew how to get it done. >> they are battle tested for sure. i mentioned that you missed the entire 2014 season because of injury. how is the rehab? will you be on the mound for opening day? >> i'm healthy and ready to go. it has been a long year. i had my ups and downs, obviously. off-seasonaving an where i can prepare like a normal pitcher and get ready for spring training like a normal player. >> baseball has been losing ground to the other sports, especially among young people, among kids. how does mlb turn that around?
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>> i think what the royals did this year -- they have a bunch of young guys. they had a lot of spark. the way that whole series went, and then kind of an underdog team that had jumped out of nowhere. it's pretty exciting. >> you are trying to build your brand. how does matt harvey build a brand? >> for me it is -- i love new york. i have really embraced new york. i love the local brands, the forl juice presses, instance, one partnership i have been fortunate to have, it's obviously a healthy thing and it is something that for me being a new yorker and an already established a buddy like juice has been good for me. being a new yorker and having your brands in new york
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companies, it was very important for me. >> matt harvey, new york mets pitching ace joining us in studio. thanks so much. that in morering sports teams, the chicago cubs have fired rick renteria. that is opening up space for joe maddon, who just left the tampa bay rays. let's get back to the breaking news stories we have been following. virgin galactic reporting its spaceshiptwo space tourism rocket has been lost in southern california. the status of the pilots is unclear. you are looking at a live picture. the company tweeted friday during the test the vehicle suffered a serious anomaly resulting in the loss of spaceshiptwo. the company founded by british billionaire sir richard branson would not say what happened other than it was working with authorities to determine the cause of what it says was an accident. current county fire department reported it was heading to a location in the mohave desert. california highway patrol officer said the agency was
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what can you tell us? virgin galactic telling us information, saying during the test there was a serious anomaly resulting in the loss of spaceshiptwo. let me explain to you how this thing works. is a product invented by a company called scales composite am an inventor and aerospace pioneer backed by paul allen of microsoft, among others. rather than take off from a rocket like a traditional spacecraft have done, their plan was to have a plane known as the white knight to arch and underneath it in the center is a separate spaceship. once they get to a few thousand feet, the spaceship will detach. they will fire the rocket and zoom out ahead of the white knight plane. we understand there was a serious anomaly, but the white knight plane itself was fine but the spaceship itself was an issue.
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perhaps -- we don't know yet, -- the one fatality pilot would be in great jeopardy. we know the white night flight was fine. airplane that holds the rocket ship as it tries to get to that 50,000 foot all the queued and take off -- altitude and take off into space. it is supposed to go to 52,000. we don't know what happened or where it went wrong, but that is the way it was supposed to work. they hope to have these manned flights and take passengers up, the very first of them, richard branson has said he will take his family up on the very first flight. obviously there is a slowdown in that process as of right now. >> thankfully we are hearing from the company, and let me read to you what we have. virgin galactic's partner scaled composites conducted a power test flight of spaceshiptwo
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earlier today. during the test, the vehicle suffered a serious anomaly resulting in the loss of the vehicle. aircraft knight ii carrier landed safely. our first concern is the status of the pilots, which is unknown at this time. we did tell you that there is one confirmed death and one major injury. we will work closely with relevant authorities to determine the cause of this accident and provide updates as soon as we are able to do so. that is a statement from the company at this hour. cory, weather conditions seem favorable out there. >> yeah. it's raining in northern california, but it is the mohave desert and there will not be much rain out there. it has been the home of test flights going all the way back to the days of chuck yeager. this is really the home of aviation pioneering and rocket pioneering as long as it has happened in this country.
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there's a small industry around their of different companies trying to solve some of the technological problems to have these private flights into space. aerospace engineers suddenly in great demand in that part of the country. what we hear about the white knight, the one time i was out a virginard branson in america airplane flying around the san francisco bay, they had with the knight ii spaceship attached to it, alongside our virgin america plane as we flew over the golden gate bridge and along the san francisco bay. one pilot and the spaceship, and one pilot in the plane. we don't know what happened there today. obviously a great tragedy for this program. "> "bloomberg west editor-at-large, cory johnson. california authorities saying one fatality, one major injury after virgin galactic spaceshiptwo accident. the tourism rocket was lost in southern california. we will continue to follow this "streetming up on smart" with trish regan.
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