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tv   On the Move  Bloomberg  November 3, 2014 3:00am-4:01am EST

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cable in just over nine minutes time. goalir raises the profit for this year. the ceo tells bloomberg the economic slowdown is playing into his hands. if you are looking at futures, futures are pretty much dead flat across the eurozone. manus cranny has got the open for us. ryanair. >> a stunning set of numbers. on sterling there is really no the weekendhat. they were absolutely baying for cameron to deliver a vote on europe early next year around election time. equity markets open a little softer. trading near record highs at the end of last week. everybody is looking at growth of the consumer rather than the end of quantitative easing. this is a week of big beast
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information. european central bank. how is mario draghi getting along with hermits? has he convinced them there is justifiable sovereign debt on the landscape, and if he did, what impact would it have? in europe it will rise by 12%. at a paltry performance relative to average annually over the last five years. qe.ot bank on ime of the names in here -- just noticed there are were quite a few banking names. europe is cheap on long-term averages. pretty bullish call from jpmorgan. you takemonth low, do that as being your benchmark? will the chinese do more in terms of stimulus, or do you bank on three and a half percent growth out of the united states
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of america? a conversation with michael o'leary, the ryanair ceo. fromf growth will come primary and 50% will come from secondary hubs or seen it. they have upgraded their numbers, so that is good news. the stock down 3%. pay $3.7oing to billion for safety. they're going to pay $25, a 44% onmium to close the business friday. they are making digital part of their business. they are going to bring the strategy forward by about three years, although we should have a look at the price. the movement in share price in the five days running up to the deal.
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volumes were strangely large. as a careful, they are going to do a swap. careful -- cuervo is going to give part of the tequila brand they don't already own. i have been away for a week, so let's try something new. you never know. there you go. you have need me when got pictures. trending higher. there you go. puppy.s the dollar yen. what is your funding currency of choice? it is a race to the bottom. yen is that a seven-year low or the dollar is at a seven-year high. look at it?ould you you have a man who can put much more impact on that. >> good to have you back. about 15100 down
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points. almost00 last week is up re-percent. the best week for european stocks so far this year. let's bring in the investing director who manages $4.3 billion in assets. -- greatave you here to have you here. they are in expansion territory. a lot of people talking about the nonmanufacturing pmi. speculation the people's bank of china may ease policy somewhat. did you give much to that kind of thought? >> not really. mostu look at the action, of it has been very specific to boost the domestic side of the equation. it's not a broad approach. it's more about giving relief for encouraging whether domestic consumption can take a little
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bit further. >> everybody spent the weekend talking about the bank of japan and the stunning increase in stimulus. some people were talking about the baton being passed from the federal reserve to the bank of japan. they haven't increased i that much. they are certainly not replacing what the federal reserve has done 12 months ago. does this become a domestic story as opposed to a global liquidity story? >> to start off, they have to andinue to weaken the yen, since this is going to be a medium-term strategy, it is going to go on for a while. the end is going to weaken in stages. the way it affects the global areet is the way they reallocating assets. iss is how the liquidity going to get transmitted through to the equity markets. there are going to be large cap
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index buying approach. it means the larger markets will at the margins see new cash coming in. if you are a buyer in the market place, i think that holds up the risk asset markets where you are. >> what it did on friday in the morning was really pin down yields in spain and italy to some extent. think look at this, i back to 12 months ago when the bank of japan really tune things up on the stimulus side. politically what happened? are they the kinds of things we here? do we look at the bank of korea? how do they react? what is the political and central-bank reaction? >> i think there is going to be infantilization.
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integrated. the global economy is not expanding very fast. that means there is more pressure to keep production level up. they required to continue to do the shipments outside of the asian region as well. the japanese yen is another intensity of competition. an export of deflation. >> you and i are going to talk about europe and the u.k. here is a look at one stock on the move this morning. it is ryanair, europe's biggest budget airline. shares getting a little lift up. they are boosting the forecast by 100 million euros. 9%.stock is up almost up next, the u.k. business secretary vince cable joins us to talk about the strength of
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the british economy, and of course the question that could eugover if we get the u.k. referendum. stay with us. we are "on the move."
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>> welcome back. we stream on everything.
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we were talking before the break about the bank of japan. there was a little squeeze. >> a lot of people in the equity market already had been saying the equity markets across the world, especially the u.s., had moved quickly for a medium-term. i think you had a lot of people who wanted it. what you're seeing is the first phase of the bear market closing. i think there is a lot left in the marketplace. japan is closer. we don't understand how much is left in. normally they have moved further than you think. does the ecb fit in here? they meet this week. are they going to give time to play out? to see how long it takes to feed
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into the european economy? as we approach funding, how much of a difference does it make? at what point do they take a look at bigs and say, we have to turn it up? they still have a long way to run. see it for another three months. in the meantime the economic data coming out is not very bad. it is not really good. if you look at the inflation number it was a tiny bit strong. if you look at some of the other numbers that are going to be coming out, we had such bad numbers the month before. you are going to see some rebounds occurring. time for ecbives before they are forced into any action. i think you are looking until january before the situation gets to where they actually need to do something extra. a lot has been done.
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all of those take time to work through the system. in the meantime the economy is not going anywhere. not out right inflation. >> it is a slow grind, but as you see the policy debate evolve you see them fight inflation. the primary way to do that is to push the currency. when you look at what is happening in japan and germany, it is as much a demographics problem as anything. population that is not spending. it is saving more, particularly in japan. what can a central-bank do about it? >> it can only happen -- it is up to the businesses to decide what to spend in the cycle. that is how you create long-term growth. that goes into the global demand side. if you put into investment ellis e, you need demand to be ready for investors to be productive.
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europe, the eu is still a slightly -- a fairly big zone. it is equal to probably more than the u.s. there is a lot of potential, but ultimately i think it goes to creating a stable economic environment with proper employment growth. i think the situation europe and japan have in common, we are in a deflationary environment globally. commodity prices are going down. oil prices are going down. we will have to do more than a normal economic environment. this, whyhelp manage do you put it in the environment? >> we still want to maintain a fairly conservative stance now. we want to see the end of u.s. quantitative easing.
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i think as long as there is reasonable liquidity, that means there is enough fuel to sustain economic growth and also hold up recessed at -- risk asset prices. >> want to talk about the politics between the u.k. and the european union. we know the conservative party would like to hold a referendum , how muchet manager uncertainty has that given you when you look at the situation ahead of next year's election? >> i think the uncertainty will keep rising through the election. don't forget in the u.k. we have fairly loose monetary policy. we have a growth rate that is much better than in europe. i think it is a question of delaying the interest rate cycle as a byproduct of rising uncertainty. i think that gives the bank of england room to maneuver
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further. also inflationary pressures are fairly absent in the u.k. there is no reason to rush to raise interest rates. underlying monetary conditions tend to be supportive of the risk market. >> what is the trade? >> i think sterling is going to remain fairly tight, so in a way i think it is back to the market. we have seen the bond yields coming back a little bit because of the deflationary environment we have globally. trade.ay it is a good it is sticking with it. >> the immigration debate is going to heat up. we are going to focus our attention on the u.k. and the e.u. as well. great to have you with us. as you are looking at the european sector, how important
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is immigration in the sector were a lot of people are saying there is a chronic skill shortage? there is a big skill shortage , which is about 2.5 million job vacancies opening up over the last five years, which is why we are launching this initiative today to try to inform 11-year-olds to 14 euros about the possibility of engineering careers. a lot of effort has gone into this by the government. we support getting companies committed to skill development. it is all predicated on the assumption our engineering industry continues to grow, and a lot of that is outward looking, and it depends on the future and the european market as well as rest of the world. >> let's talk about our future in the european central market. angela merkel reportedly shoving her first -- showing her first concerns the u.k. is heading
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towards the exit door. are you aware of that concern, and how concerned are you about how much of a political messages come -- becoming ahead of the election next year? >> i am concerned when people ,tart raising these issues because from the point of view of the international business community, they won't have certainty. one of those has been the knowledge we are members of the central market. we have had anxiety discussed about our future. the increasingly toxic debate has made this more difficult.
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>> do you think it is becoming a ?olitical football >> clearly it is. i think part of the problem is immigration is a complex issue. there are issues about people coming in from outside of the european union, and we have to maintain a careful balance between making sure it is haveed, ensuring we freedom from overseas students to come to the u.k., that workers can come in where employers need them. there is a different set of issues where the basic risible is freedom of movement of workers. once that is called into you are no longer in the framework of the single market, and we cannot have that kind of a sick uncertainty. >> when we talk about the free movement of labor, the conservative party can maybe do
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something about that. if you look at the membership in the european union, is the restriction even compatible with our membership? >> it isn't. part of the problem is different people need different things. there are genuine concerns about the use of benefits, benefit tourism, as it is sometimes called. i did the work -- the worries are exaggerated, but they are real, and these things can be dealt with within the framework of the european union. what cannot be done -- dealt with is the idea you can impose controls on freedom of movement. negotiations 30 years ago. it was seen as very much in the interest of the u.k. we led that debate. countries ofther the european union simply cannot
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understand why the british are reopening this debate. you look at the bill that ,as come through for the u.k. do you think we should pay that? is that a bill you would support paying? not in the way it has been framed. there are legitimate excuses. our contribution is adjusted every year. sometimes it goes up. sometimes it goes down. the particular issue was of the gnp base to take advantage of the economy. clearly corrections have to be made that have been made in the past, but presenting this is a demand you pay by a certain day is extremely unhelpful, and i think they're quite right to
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insist this is done properly. >> very quickly. you say the prime minister is right to say we should do this properly, but the prime minister, should he be surprised by that? should he have seen that coming? >> i don't think anybody should have been surprised by the fact these calculations are taking place. every year there is a reassessment of contributions. i think what is surprising is the scale of the revaluation based on the changing of the system. it was unfortunate a way in which the commission chose to present that to us. i have a lot of sympathy to the way it was constructed. clearly there was a solution. i think it was right to insist it should be dealt with properly. >> we have to leave it there.
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thanks for joining us. break, we're the going to check on shares of hsbc. company earnings are coming up. i will give you the full breakdown after the break.
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>> welcome back. let's bring you up to speed with the companies on the move this
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morning. revelations are likely to reveal significant financial penalties. talks are ongoing. they have made a binding offer to buy the portuguese assets of portugal telecom from brazil. the offer is worth $8 billion and fully financed. if successful it would complete the merger with oi. cuervoer of josé swapping liquor brands. they are giving the 50% they did not already own. be deal is expected to completed in early 2015. we're are looking at a lower open. the ftse 100 is down by a 10th of 1%. "on the move" is back in two.
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♪ ,.
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>> welcome back to "on the move ." i am jonathan ferro. 30 minutes into your trading day. how things are shaping up. the ftse 100 is data flat. the excitement on friday. the bank of japan, a little bit of extra stimulus, a little bit. of 2013.since december morning, a little bit flatter. corporate news. >> how dare you? look at some of these moves. let's start with advertising. said they are going to
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buy sapien. .s about getting more digital the stock is down as a result of this deal. they are saying they will be able to get half of their revenue from digital three years ahead of their schedule, so they believe in it. from the failure to merge? this is the italian bank, would've a number that failed the stress tests last week. no cigars and that are coming to the markets to raise capital. -- no surprise that are coming to the markets to raise capital. toy were down 39% last week put it in a bit of perspective. admin belt out two times. they are going to the government. d out they have been baile wo times.
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it said it's going to achieve fit, fairly impressive numbers. that would go as far as to say there are in a good position if you see slowing of the economy that is bringing more people to ryanair. just consider how much they are benefiting, the sector from a whole, yes or no was the answer at little bit earlier today. they locked in their hash at $93 a barrel. there badgeed in and $92 a barrel. >> and they have faced serious headwinds. ryanair has raised its profit for the second time and the stock crushing their competitors so far this year. earlier do with the ceo
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and asked him about how ryanair is shaking up the industry. >> i think it's a fundamental reinvention. we have one of the price battle and the price war. -- we have won the price battle and the price war. we are providing people with a better experience, the free second carry on bag. discount prices for children chancellor -- traveling with a parent and we want to move it to the middle market. we are finding more and more of the customers are increasingly saying, yeah, will to ryanair. >> i am not saying they were not a nice but a bit of a shift. >> it is a surprising shift. fronte put our staff in of situations in conflict with customers. we are ending the conflict and we are not going to fight with you because the back is an inch
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too big. is an inch too big. we have received compliments letters of how nice the people are and how refreshing the change is. it is working. people are coming for the price and coming back for better customer service. chris would you doing -- >> stepping it out. >> compared to last winter, how much flying are you going to do? >> and we expected to increase by 16%. that is huge. there is demand for ryanair across all markets. 60% travel growth and would expect the dip -- the fierce to dip. -- 16% travel growth and we expected the fares to dip. profits will rise by about 45% over last year. >> let's keep it on ryan air. we are joined by john strickland, and aviation
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analyst. the stock is up my over 9%. record high. it is about the news last year or bottom line, picking up the mess of air france, the strikes that have plagued europe? >> every think it's the right direction. s going in the right direction. it's a combination of factors. they have always been cost focus and competitive and that drives volume. we see the factors going in and it is going to easyjet territory. are right to say that are looking at picking up the mess. if they looked the english and of to air france both still grappling over may bes, air france temporarily their plan to roll out across europe.
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they have big, big problem. they are trying to work out where they stand. ryan air is under pressure. they will do it again this winter with lower fares. >> we talked about the big europe's biggest budget airline. should we talk about the messes same way as we do air france? they are going after the big boys. with a continue? -- will they continue? >> they are still in single digits. a lot to go. these airlines are struggling. their operations and we have seen i e.g. cut to the bone. .n-house and at arms length they have cut the short hall to where they really need it. madrid and heathrow. it is operating in germany and air france to an extent and that is to the home country as well.
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should they continue doing there for the future? ryanair will put on a more pressure. example essay by the investments. if they put more pressure, that would shrink. -- they have been saved by the investments. pressure can be applied. they can put the capacity down with pressure on the competitors around and other countries and themselves. andook at a map of cities the secondary airports, about three hours from where they say they are. a big driver if i have my flight. go overir continues to those primary airports, how do they maintain low costs while doing it at the same time? >> some of the big reports they fly to, they already have deals. the airports they fly to, they already have deals. they have a 10 year plan with some. they can offer london, london to
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another city based on a lower unit cost that they would get compared to heathrow or gassed with. it could be more challenging of they have said frankfurt airport, they're now looking to go into. equally, these large airports that are like fortress and not willing to do deals are seeing the problem of receiving operations from the carriers and are more willing to do deals. some could be using capacity. ryan air is always willing to move around to fill the gaps. >> a slow down in europe. hans nichols was playing that up about an hour ago. a lot of people will be watching and thinking of how to play the stock and if it will be resilient. do you think it will be or corporate top of that, we are well-positioned, which one is it? >> with sina before. they talked about guidance this morning.
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have seen it before. they say things and come around a hit us. ,he crises they have weathered whatever it is. it comes down to the single-minded focus on cost as a business, by having a unique costs and putting themselves in a strong position to up there is a they cannot influence, they put themselves in a stronger position. they do not let up. >> final question and about where they are on fuel and oil. mike leary us that are hatched at $93 a barrel through march, how does that compare to others and when can they start to reap the benefits? >> they are in a strong position and they are hedging well. all of that has been called out in terms of the daily price of the fuel because the last week
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hatched and the democrats are lower at the moment. you have indicated they may lock into 2017 now and they are in a great position to do it. they got their fingers badly burned. they will look that not aware they are in terms of relative cost of but haven't the certainty. they can plan with certainty. cost butbut they -- they have certainty. >> thank you for joining us. ryan air stock up. are talking about the trouble the italian lender as they look for ways to plug a $2 billion short fall. stay with us. ♪
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>> welcome back. i am jonathan ferro. china services industries fell to a nine-month low in october. pmi fell to 53.8. it fell in october signaling the economic slowdown is broadening. the official report acknowledged the economy still faces some headwinds but a downward trend in pmi is unlikely. german chancellor angela merkel is voicing concern that the u.k. might leave the european union. according to a magazine, she is worried about david cameron's
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efforts to reduce the free flow of workers from the rest of the eu. cameron promises to hold a referendum if he is reelected next year. 370 $8 million provision for an investigation into foreign exchange benchmark rating. they missed estimates and said the program would involve "significant financial penalties the bank they also made a $700 million provision for a customer program. shares are down around 1% this morning. let's talk ipos. the second-biggest initial public offering in the world this year. bank of commercial money inbia raised elliott gotkine has more. for a company many people have not heard of. >> a huge deal in this part of
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the world. the biggest ever in the public offering in the middle east. as you say, the second-biggest in the world this year. a quarter ofunder the 24 billion dollar that alibaba rates but $6 billion is not too shabby. citizens which about one third of earlier this year in the united states. demand was phenomenal for saudi arabia's biggest bank. raise $6 billion and it was a slow process, a two-week subscription process for saudi's to get shares in the company. david half of the stock available and was actually was a demand for. by the end of it, it'll $458 billion worth of stock, almost 10 minute -- only -- almost 10 times what they asked for.
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not traded yet. no official date just yet when you will be able to see this live trading rights. despite recent a false because of the drop in oil prices. >> let's get a continued conversation on this up because a big saudi investors might be excited but the country's is not so enthusiastic, what is the story? >> he is not. perhaps doesse he not like to -- sharia, islamic law. shaped.be n-islamic tom -- u be a part of the ipo because it is invested in companies or assets not compliant with sharia law. because it is invested in banks that charge interest or for example, companies that are involved in alcohol or gambling
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and would not be compliant. he is advising others to do likewise and not invest. ncb has a plan and was to sell non-sharia to everybody. >> thank you very much. want to move things back to europe and break pretty good pmi and the eurozone. 49.0 percent, it is down. it is in contraction territory. .hat is a disappointing side from spain, about half an hour 52 point 6%.pmi at in line with previous numbers. -- 52.6. the conversation will be ramped reformsy needs to make and that will be a conversation for another day. a lot of attention on italy and italian thanks.
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one lenders said they plan to raise capital for the shortfall identified in the ecb stress tests last week. the bloomberg reporter. what are the options for the banca monte? >> in there with a lot of speculation that they would sell assets and evil post on the repayment which it does not have and the company trying to quell the rumors and putting got a statement and say it is working at the moment. the entire shortfall will be covered up a capital increase and a stock sale. and they will consider various asset sales to bolster its capital further. and that seems to indicate that perhaps the speculation of the takeover that stemmed from the earlier statement last week seemed to peter out the now and
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the bank as focus on selling stocks to put the capital. >> vista last week took a beating down almost 40% -- and this. last week took a beating down almost 40% and people expected them to raise money. if legal woes affecting what is happening? muche legal woes are very of the previous management. what it does remind the investors, some of the issues that they face today stems from the wrongdoing or alleged wrongdoing of the previous management and the way the banks finance were wrong. a banker on friday pointed out that the legacy issues are still waiting on the bank today. --chle weighing on the bank waiting on the bank today. ighi on then bank today.
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>> thank you very much. gthe stock was smashed last week. something else has taken a bit of a beating. the ruble sliding focus on the dollar this morning and continuing a decline. it is the world's worst performing major currency. ryan chilcote joins us with more. what is going on? there hikes interest rates and it does not help. >> the ruble weakening today, a gained a little bit back, climbed back, the losses. friday was a terrible day as well. despite the bank the -- despite the fact that the central bank intervened. they hike to the rate surprising all 21 economist with surveyed. the ruble rallied and then continue to decline affeldt
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three point 5%. at this point right now, traders of the ruvell are the more bearish they have been in three years. ruble are thee most bearish they have been in three years. one of them is sanctions. obviously, if you look at the price of oil, the ruble's decliners we'll head of the depreciation of the oil price. it has a lot of people stopped. how can it continue to fall? -- it has a lot of people stopped -- stumped. >> we talked about monetary policy, talk to me about politics. most compared to what we have been over the past couple of weeks. told me about the politics, where the ukraine and russia situation stands? >> in eastern ukraine, the rebel s had elections.
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the results they say was a big turnout and the leaders going to the polls, the leaders of the rebels will be elected. russia said those leaders have an official mandate, which russian said will make it easier for them to not work with those leaders. ukraine does not organize the vote. u.n. does not recognize it. will we see more sanctions against motion -- against russia for backing this? those sanctions against russia can be weakened, lessened, stay , or be increased. a couple weeks ago, people do not think there was a chance of de-escalation. the same bet is they will stay in place for a good while and we might see the ratcheted up. >> and the ruble getting punished. coming up, we will talk about mergers.
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merger monday. it is for publicis. not the big one. that is next. ♪
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>> welcome back to "on the move. " it is time to talk publicis. rick david joins us. let's start with the important
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stuff, what are they buying? >> they are saying the deal will help them become a leader in the digital ad space. we have been hearing that the dev been looking for a new target to help them get over that. and the sharesst -- we got to the forecast and the shares have been down. they were hoping it would get them to move more into digital. >> they are buying sapien. how does it stack up? the largestreplace advertising agency in the world. they are saying even though we will be the largest digital, it is not the same away. , we believe the ceo was talking how it was makes a lotow it more sense for them. >> room for david, i know you
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will talk about on the net show david, iid, -- ruth know you will talk about on the next show, "on the pulse the bank -- pulse." ♪
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>> deal for digital. the debate as germany ways the exit. the issue puts businesses at risk. space.'s investigators are looking for answer after the galactic crash. ♪ >> welcome to "the pulse."

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