>> with all due respect to jake jill and hall, we run the day shift and the night shift. >> hello. nothing but the midterms. midterm pellucid. -- midterm-palooza. let's start with the battle for the control of the senate and the man at the center of the story, mitch mcconnell simultaneously trying to save

his job and become the senate majority leader. he spoke this afternoon alongside rand paul in a rally in kentucky. >> victory is in the air. we are going to bring it home tomorrow night. after six years of borrowing and spending and taxing and regulations, these people need to be stopped. >> fired up and ready to go. let's take a look at the last round of media polls. the poll shows mcconnell ahead comfortably. another poll republicans seem happy with, a two-point lead over mark udall. still holding his lead. the republican still ahead in this poll. >> those are all pretty good for

republicans. there is some good news for democrats in three of the closing polls to be shipped over here. you look at the iowa senate poll, it is tied at 47. the iowa poll, done by partners at the des moines register, put them ahead by seven points. this one puts them in a dead heat. you have the incumbent democrat up three points. that is consistent. pretty consistent with a lot of the public polling. the louisiana senate race, you have the incumbent with 44. her main republican challenger at 36%. it puts them in a pretty good position into the midterms. here is the question, if you

look at all of this polling does all of this collectively suggest that either party has the big one? >> it does suggest republicans are in a decent position but not turning around the race in some dramatic rate -- germanic way. -- dramatic way. >> both party seems to be confined. >> we call that in political science a mixed bag. >> indeed. having launched the show a month ago we are already getting more air time. this new show is called when surrogates go bad. here is the pilot. can you guess the surrogate that said i knew you were trouble when you walked in. >> [indiscernible] she is really attractive.

i kept thinking about that. i don't care if it is taylor swift. if she looks like michelle obama she is wrong for the state of iowa. >> that line was a taylor swift line. if our brand-new tv series gets picked up we have a second episode that is ready to go. here's what we shot just today. demo would you like to apologize? >> senator harkin not wanting to apologize in that moment. they sent us this statement -- i'm going to put it to you

bluntly our democrats losing it? >> you take at what -- you take what senator harkin's said and i think it wouldn't take joyce brothers or a genius to say -- >> those are two giants of analysis. >> that is the kind of mistake you make when you are tired. i think he wants the seat to go to the democrats. she has not been absolutely teflon but she has withstood a lot of attacks. surprised it took him almost an entire news cycle. >> one thing we know about covering politics is the biggest thing is it caught -- the biggest thing that causes unforced errors is lack of sleep. we are going to be well rested for tomorrow night. you can excuse it as a slip of

the tongue. you don't want to see your opponent getting a talking point. >> one more thing on the senate. if you are a daily subscriber and think republicans are going to win the senate you may have thought that was a block. we have another possibility presented for your consideration. democrats can hold on. all they need to do is win a handful of states that appeared to be within their reach. let's say democrats hold on. then again for the sake of the scenario, let's say they win georgia on the runoff or maybe find their way to 50 tomorrow night. let's say kansas wins.

that would mean for republicans to get the majority they would need to run for the remaining races. there is a lot of assumption in there. how realistic is that of a scenario? >> it is a long shot. you think about how close these races are. there is enough in that scenario that is plausible and a enough that is vaguely possible. you are at least going to get some kind of sleep tonight. >> a lot of republicans think democrats are going to win there. they could pick off of alaska. not out of reach. >> no doubt the republicans have the upper hand.

they have enough pathways where you can easily see them holding on. >> coming up, our scrappy spirit and dynamic panelists will turn this set into a modern coliseum of intellectual gymnastics. they are coming up with us shortly right here.

>> other tv experts like to refer to their experts has powerhouse roundtables. we bought a table. and filling it with supersmart analysts. we have albert reinhold hunt junior. we have a republican strategist democratic strategist former republican senator from new hampshire, and former clinton white house operative. most notably the devil in allen

gores year. -- in al gore's ear. we sketch out the ways in which democrats might hold on to majority. how hopeful are you with that scenario? >> 35%. >> i like the specificity. >> there are going to be reputations made or broken tomorrow night. hugh have at least seven or eight races within the margin of error. if it is any kind of break that goes one way, it will be great. if it is split then no one is quite sure. >> do you see that as possible? >> not even possible. i look at it more general. the key is we do not know what direction the mood of the country is going to go. republicans aren't popular but obama is less popular.

what will the split be and the turnout game be? i think it is a big turnout gain. >> any change? >> i think it is going to be about turnout. historically the democrats are better about turnout. it will be a long time that a long night tomorrow. >> the odds of running the table is 35%. it is a whole lot lower than that. it is too early to say who has the edge. republicans have performed far better relative to the democrats than ever before. is it possible? it is like dumb and dumber. 2 million to one.

so you are saying i still have a chance. >> the premise as we start building that scenario is that immigrants will hold in new hampshire and north carolina where is mark has pointed out they haven't been behind all year long. you think there will be a surprise? >> no one should be surprised because he has closed the gap every day for the last two months. obviously if he does win that blows the scenario out of the water. ammo we always point fingers. >> we look at the six-year presidential term.

the fact we are assessing odds and you look at the states that are in play, the fact we are having a conversation where the democrats could hold the senate is amazing. >> totally agree. >> it means we need something to talk about. we shouldn't be partisan here. republicans are much better at finger-pointing. i don't think we want to spend a lot of time on that. >> people have been trying to gauge. do you see it is possible that the republicans could run the table? >> anything is possible. is it likely? no. we are not going to know tomorrow night. we will be drink a lot of coffee and road -- and red bull. >> if you have two states in a runoff, that means it is a good

chance those elections will be about who is going to control the senate. it will all boil down to that one question. >> needless to say i don't agree with georgia. >> tell me the race you are most confident in. >> i am very invested in that race. i am not confident he will win. i am more confident than i was yesterday. >> what would surprise you most? which candidate would you be shocked by? >> i would be shocked by michelle nunn winning. >> most confident it would be

jeanne shaheen in new hampshire. i feel like she should win. i would have to say mark pryor s least confident at this point. >> i don't think we would even talk about that as a contested race. i would say colorado. it is a close race. gardiner has been strong for two months. i think if republicans win north carolina we are talking 55 republicans in the senate. >> who is the strongest candidate? who is the strongest challenger in either party? >> michele knight. 63%. go out on a limb. let's not forget to registration still favors democrats in that space.

she put it to bed early. >> you said open. them on a lot of lovers here for michelle nunn. thank you to these panelists. we are not done with our expert yet. we will have even more smart people at this table. they will be even smarter. no offense.

>> tomorrow night twin bill have a lot of election stuff until we pass out and go home. you met some of them before, here is the next round. the former white house communications director, deputy white house press secretary, veteran and republican ad maker

and democratic ad maker been you are working for terry branstad in iowa. tell me why you think other republican governors like scott walker and governor snyder, why are some of them having trouble? >> i think it has to do with the economy. all politics are local and government races. i think the governor branstad he is a rock star. he knows how to campaign. >> i hope he never wears the pants. they have done tax reform.

when they had a clear package of changes they went from a huge deficit to a huge surplus. >> there too big senate races -- there are two big senate races but it which one of the means more symbolically and practically to the democratic party? >> that is the lady or tiger. florida needs a huge that means a huge amount symbolically to the democratic party. too bad we cannot bring mike feldman out here to talk about why it is good to have a democratic governor. he is seen as a potential presidential candidate. two recall elections up there already, this -- the way scott

walker has gone out. >> i think mary burke is great. democrats can't wake up on wednesday and scott walker can win reelection and they will regret it more than any other race in the country. i think if we missed the opportunity to take them out now, it will be a real issue for us. >> i don't think you can blame anyone individual in particular. you can always put in more resources. i hope we win. >> if they do win florida, wisconsin -- is it a matter of spin and political discourse to say we have lost the senate but our governors are important?

>> i would even predict republicans will pick up one dozen house seats and lose. there is one simple reason, you cannot run against brock obama -- against barack obama in maine. he is a non-issue. >> he came to michigan. >> we had the democratic chair in the other day and she said they will net more governor seats than they will lose in the senate. >> what are we talking about here in your show tonight and tomorrow night? we are talking about control of the senate. the others are second-tier.

>> the governor races need a big field. they mean a great deal from a policy perspective. >> they will have no effect. >> the races are the only place we can showcase our are tentative speed >> can a candidate carry a state is my point. they all had republican governors, what happened in the presidential election? >> let's assume that democrats have a pretty bad and nights tomorrow night and the president comes out on was the and has a press conference what should his soundbite be?

>> he has got a republican senate, a republican house. i think the president should take a hard look at how does he make relationships that can be done here the last week 5% of his presidency. >> i have been telling him since 2007 that he was not right for his circle of people. >> i have said this before he tells the secret service to get lost for a minute, buys a sixpack of beer, goes over to mention mick -- two mitch mcconnell's house and knocks on the door. >> how important is it for the strategy going into tomorrow night and wednesday? do they need to wait and see? >> i think they need a strategy. the president will need to acknowledge the message that the

american people are sending, the same way the leaders are acknowledging it. people want folks to start working on solutions. i think they need a strategy. caps off communicatively american people that he heard what they are saying thank you to all of you. -- >> think you did -- thanks to all of who you.

>> we are always life. a fantastic story about guns not as a gun-control issue.

>> tomorrow night, a really big shoe here on bloomberg television. you can watch on the website. we will be here tomorrow night. in our addition of the show tomorrow. good night.

>> this is what i am taking stock of on this monday, november 3, 2014. sprint, aig, and urban life reported financial results. sprint will cut 2000 jobs because it is losing more customers than projected. callers have hung up on sprint in each of the past 10 quarters. aig's profit climb to 1% of $2 billion, eating estimates. it is the first earnings report under the executive. and herbalife on life support after reporting a profit that missed estimates. earnings will be lower this year than first