♪ >> with all due respect to jake gyllenhaal, we run the day shift and the night shift. >> hello. on the show tonight nothing but the midterms. midterm-palooza. there'll be more bonus play tomorrow starting here at 7:00 p.m. eastern time, but for now let's start with the battle for , the control of the senate and the man at the center of the story, republican mitch

mcconnell simultaneously trying to save his job and become the senate majority leader. he spoke this afternoon alongside rand paul in a rally in kentucky. >> victory is in the air. we are going to bring it home tomorrow night. after six years of borrowing and spending and taxing and regulations, these people need to be stopped. and it starts tomorrow night. >> fired up and ready to go. let's take a look at the last round of media polls. in the last the poll shows 24 hours, mcconnell ahead comfortably. another poll republicans seem 50-41. happy with, a two-point lead over mark udall. still holding his lead. in that quinnipiac poll the , republican still ahead in this poll. four points ahead of michele knight, with the libertarian

candidate at 3%. >> those are all pretty good for republicans. as far as i can see but it is not all good news just for republicans. there is some good news for democrats in three of the closing polls to be shipped over here. you look at the iowa senate poll, it is tied at 47. the iowa poll, done by partners at the des moines register, put them ahead by seven points. this one puts them in a dead heat. you have the incumbent democrat up three points. over scott brown in new hampshire. that is pretty much consistent. pretty consistent with a lot of the public polling. and then filing -- finally, you have got mary landrieu, in the louisiana senate race, you have the incumbent with 44. her main republican challenger at 36%. it puts them in a pretty good position into the midterms. here is the question, if you

look at all of this polling, does all of this collectively suggest that either party has the big one? >> it does suggest republicans are in a decent position but not turning around the race in some dramatic way. >> it is kind of a jumble, and both parties seem to be confined. we are not seeing a big ways. >> we call that in political science a mixed bag. >> all right. we're are already getting greedy for more airtime, so we have a new show called when surrogates go bad. can you guess the surrogate that said i knew you were trouble when you walked in. >> [indiscernible] she is really attractive.

i kept thinking about that. i don't care if it is taylor swift. if she looks like michelle obama she is wrong for the state of iowa. >> just in case anybody does not know, that is a taylor swift line, and that is why we put that in there. and we already have a second episode, and here is a sneak peak that was shot just today. >> you should join me. >> i did. would you like to apologize? >> senator harkin not wanting to apologize in that moment. a little bit later, harken thought better of his response and sent us this statement -- all right, mark, i am going to

put it to you bluntly. our democrats this close to election day losing it? >> he is a pretty experienced senator, and you take what mary landrieu said about race, and it would not take joyce brothers or a genius or dr. phil to say -- democrats may be feeling a little pressure here at the end because that is the kind of statement you make when you are tired and under pressure. i think the senator really wants it to go to the democrats, and she has not been exactly teflon, but she has withstood some of the attacks. >> yes, that i am surprised about. one thing we know after covering politics for a long time the biggest thing that causes unforced errors is lack of sleep, and they are really tired, and that is why we will be sleeping 14 hours tonight, so

we will be well rested for tomorrow night. you do not want to see your opponent get a talking point. >> all right, one more thing on the senate, and it is a big one. if you are a daily subscriber then you probably think the republicans are going to win the senate. it is about 24 hours to go before the polls start to close and we have another possibility for your consideration the democrats can hold on, and all they have to do is appear to be within their reach create let's run through this scenario. they lose some seats in west virginia and elsewhere with incumbents that are leaving. that say the democrats that hold on in two states who have not been behind in any public polling, and then let's say democrats win georgia, even in the runoff, or michele knight and gets to 50 -- michelle nunn gets to 50.

that would mean for republicans to get the majority, they would need to run the table on all of the remaining competitive releases. there are a lot of assumptions in there, but how realistic of a scenario is that? >> it is a longshot, but it is not a no shot. there is enough in there that is plausible. you are going to at least get some sort of sleep before election day. georgia, i would not be shocked. and this, a lot of republicans think that democrats are going to win there, and then can they pick up one of the other states? they could pick off of alaska. nobody has a sense of what is going on there. and even colorado is not out of the reach. >> colorado and iowa. again, no doubt republicans have the upper hand here, but

democrats have enough pathways to hold on that you can easily see them holding on. >> we are going to revisit this in just a bit, because coming up, our scrappy spirit and our dynamic panelist of dow list energy will turn this into a coliseum of intellectual gymnastics. a are coming up. ♪

>> over at the other tv networks, they like to refer to their experts as powerhouse roundtables. we bought a table. and filling it with supersmart analysts. let's go meet them right now. at the head of our roundtable, we have albert reinhold hunt junior. we have a republican strategist, democratic strategist, former hillary clinton 2008 campaign manager, and a republican senator from new hampshire, and former clinton white house operative. most notably the devil in allen

-- in al gore's ear. i want to start it with you and give it back to the rest of the panel. we went to sketch out the ways democrats could hold out the majority. how plausible do you think that scenario is? >> 30%, 35%. maybe 33.4%. there are reputations to be made tomorrow night, and they are really within the margin of error, and we are really not sure what is going to happen. if there is any kind of a break that goes one way, it will be great, but if it spreads, no one is quite sure. >> do you see that lockable? >> i do not see that even remotely plausible. >> georgia? >> i look at it a little bit more generally. the key is we do not know what direction the mood and the country are going to go. we know that the republicans are not popular and that obama is even less possible.

-- less popular. it is a big turnout game tomorrow night. >> how about you? any chance the democrats can keep it? >> i think there are a lot of close races, and it would be about turnout, so i am keeping my fingers crossed. i think it is going to be a long night tomorrow. a lot of caffeine for us. >> this scenario is about running the table, and the odds of running the table whether shooting pool or in politics it is not 35%. it is lower than that. >> i was at 34 percent. >> the early voting in colorado early voting in iowa. it is too early to say who has the edge, but republicans have performed far better relative to the democrats than ever before so that means picking up seats in places like colorado -- is it possible? it is like dumb and dumber.

it is one million to one. >> the premise is that democrats will hold new hampshire and north carolina where they have not been behind in public polling. will there be a surprise in your home state? >> he has closed the gap every day every week, and it is a tossup. obviously if he does win, that blows the scenario out of the water, and we should have a pretty good indication by 8:30 9:00. >> there will be lots of finger-pointing, as we discussed on the program. if democrats lose the senate, is anybody going to be pointing fingers and saying it is the president or the campaign committee? >> as democrats, we are always pointing fingers. you look at the map and the calendar.

the sixth year of a presidential term. you look at the states in play. the fact that we are having a conversation about whether or not they could hold the senate is pretty amazing. >> we should not be very partisan here. i think republicans are much better at finger-pointing. we do not want to spend a lot of time on that. >> a huge republican situation. people have been trying to gauge if there is a way. do you think it is possible for the republicans to win north carolina, win new hampshire? >> anything as possible. is it likely? no. first of all, we are not going to know tomorrow night. i think we have got two states that are going to go into a runoff, louisiana and georgia so, like i said, we are going to be drinking a lot of coffee and red bull, and we will be up all night. >> two states in a runoff, that

means there is a good chance those elections will be about who is going to control the senate. it will all boil down to that. >> along with kansas. >> i do not agree with georgia. >> if you look at all of the contestants in races, tell us the race you are the most confident in and the race you are least confident in. >> i am doing georgia. i am doing ads for georgia, so i am very, very invested in that race. >> tomorrow night? >> it is possible. i am not confident they will win 50. i am more confident that i was yesterday, and that is a good sign. >> what would be the race that said rise to the most? which candidate would you be shocked by? >> i hate to say this, i would be shocked by michelle nunn winning, not being in a runoff

winning. >> have about you? >> it would be new hampshire. i feel she should win. if she does not win -- and least competent, i would have to say mark pryor. but frankly, joe, i do not even know that we were talking about that as a contested race. i would say colorado. and it is a close race, but gardner has been strong. and i would say north carolina. >> a superstar candidate. who is the strongest candidate? >> fred will hate me for this michelle nunn. >> michelle nunn.

>> she put it to bed early. doesn't have to be in a contested one? you said open. >> all right. >> michelle nunn,.. either way, she is a winner. stay tuned. we are not done with our experts yet. we will have even more smart people at this table. actually, they will be even smarter than the current people. stay tuned. ♪

>> tomorrow night, all sorts of fun election stuff until we pass out or have to go home. we will have a rotating panel of people here smarter than us. here is the next group. a communications director formally with the white house, a

veteran and republican ad maker, and we are recycli the republican ad maker, fred davis, because there is something about that hair. a skim, you are working -- >> i think it is going to be a surprise. >> tell me why you think other republican governors like scott walker and like governor schneider, why are some of them having trouble? >> i think it has to do with the economy and that all politics is local in governors races, and this is that he is a rockstar. and i think she has shown balance.

>> there has been a clear turnaround. they went from a huge deficit to a huge surplus. >> i went to ask them where they could take seats that matter a lot, florida and wisconsin, for different reasons. which one of those means more? which ones of those would you rather get? >> i want both of them. let me be clear. florida means a huge amount symbolically to the democratic party. too bad we cannot bring mike out here to talk about why it is good to have a governor here in florida. but scott walker means a great deal. first of all, because he is seen as a potential presidential candidate, and second because of

two we call it elections up there already, the way scott walker has run the state -- i am going to go out on a limb. but i think she has got a great shot of winning. but democrats could wake up on wednesday, and scott walker could win reelection, and we will regret it more than any other race in the country. he is a real threat in 2016. it could be a real issue for us. >> who is going to be blamed if that happens? >> not any one individual. you can always put in more money and resources. some of the smart people in wisconsin are fighting. i think we can. >> if national democrats have a talking point, if they win big they win governor races in michigan, florida, wisconsin, and they hold some like wisconsin, is that a matter of spin and political discourse?

the governors are important? >> a will need something. >> i would even predict republicans will win the senate and pick up a dozen house seats, and they will lose and have a couple of governorships, and that is because you cannot win against barack obama in maine. >> in pennsylvania. >> i mean, barack obama is a non-issue. in the governors races, he is an albatross. >> he came to michigan. >> a super percentage. >> we had a democratic chair here the other day, and she said the democrats would net more governors seats than they lost in the senate. and would that mean that they have won the night in some way? >> i don't think so. what we are talking about here on your show tonight and tomorrow night, we are talking about control of the senate. the others are kind of second-tier.

>> i have to respectfully disagree with you, because i think the governors race means a great deal. it means a great deal as we move into 2016 and a great deal from a policy perspective. >> she is already spending. -- spinning. >> i would say that governors races, especially for republicans right now, are the only place we can showcase that at the moment. >> to carry a state, is my point. >> i don't know. senators have you carried the state. >> virginia, other states, they had republican governors, and then what happened in the presidential election? >> we're going to go around and start with you. let's assume for the sake of argument that the democrats have a pretty bald knob.

and when the president comes out. what should the president have as a soundbite to show me understand? >> i think what the president needs is a reset moment with the republican congress. i think the president ought to take a hard look at how does he make relationships such that he can get a lot of things done in the last 25% of his term? >> i have been telling him since 2007 that it was not right for his circle of people. >> what should the president say on wednesday if the democrats have a bad night to help himself and the country? >> tell the secret service to get lost a minute and take a sixpack of beer and go to mitch mcconnell's home and knocked on the door. >> how important is it going into tomorrow night with a strategy? >> i think they need a strategy. i think the president will need to acknowledge the message that

they are sending this. and republicans in the senate as well as democrats. start working on solutions. no matter whose fault it is. i think they know the strategy. they do. >>'s they need a big, bold thing? >> i think he needs to communicate that he has heard what they are saying. >> and as we say in bowling green thanks to all of y'all. and thanks to the previous panel, all of whom will be sleeping here so they can come in early in the morning, and john and i will be right act.

♪ >> we are ordinarily on television only half hour a day, but we also are on bloomberg.com and there is a fantastic story about guns

about candidates carrying them. >> tomorrow night, a really big shoe here, also on bloomberg.com. you can watch all night and follow on the website, and we will be here tomorrow at 5:0

>> hello, i am pimm fox and this is what i am taking stock of on this monday, november 3 2014. sprint, aig, and herbalife reported financial results. sprint will cut 2000 jobs because it is losing more customers than projected. callers have hung up on sprint in each of the past 10 quarters. aig's profit climb to 1% of $2 billion, beating estimates. this is under the new chief executive, peter hancock and on life support, earning said to be lower this year than first projected at herbalife and sir