it is an exclusive, voters really do not care. they are self. they don't care about this election. good morning, this is "bloomberg surveillance." our worlde from headquarters in new york. it is election day, tuesday, november 4, i am tom keene with scarlet fu and brendan greeley. we will commute to 18 hours of election coverage -- we welcome you to 18 hours of election coverage. john heilemann was up all night. >> this is the moment he is been waiting for. >> republicans on the verge. will the end of taking over the senate? the gop needs six seats to retake the majority. republicans think they have

succeeded in capitalizing on obama's oh ratings. >> we think this will send a clear-cut message that the republican way is the way we will create jobs in this country. >> shameless plug, watch bloomberg television tonight's coverage. starting at 5:00 p.m. eastern. they may go all night long. at jpmorgan to the list of banks in a criminal investigations. they say they're cooperating with the justice department's criminal investigation. plus, the bank faces inquiries from regulators and the u.k. and elsewhere. jpmorgan will set aside another 1.3 billion dollars to handle possible losses in this investigation. similar probes. >> saudi arabia has rattled the oil market. west texas intermediate fell to its lowest in three years from now trading for less than $76 a barrel. that comes after the saudi's cap prices for oil exports to u.s. customers. analysts believe oil stocks have

increased. last month oil fell by the most in 2.5 years. >> may be the declining oil globaltells you that the economy is still recovering as all the bullish analyst state. quick so far this year, oil prices have fallen within 20%. crush of spaceshiptwo may have been pilot error. it possibly was ripped apart just seconds after launch friday when its braking system was deployed at the speed of sound. debris has been found 35 miles away from the main crash site in california. investigators say they're braking system was unlocked earlier than it should have been. very good. for a generation, he and his brother were able to humor the strangest things. pistons and mufflers. one of the two brothers has died at 77. the one with the beard. his brother and he did the show

for 25 years. they were legit in my two grads who would enter the legit auto repair business. on "car talk" they would answer series questions about cars. that was the jumping off point -- we were and total talking about this. people laughed especially hard at this. >> it worked. -- of the under appreciation underappreciated aspects, they were canny businessman. when they first got their deal in boston they said, you can of the carriage trees, we will keep the rights to the name. at that point, nobody made any money in public tape -- radio. those guys were so good at bringing it been in jerry's, anyone. they called it the shameless commerce department. tom had a phd in marketing. he knew the business. he just played an auto mechanic on the radio. >> they would do the car stuff. it was always about the alternator. thee was ended up with

alternator. they could talk about the tires and end up talking about the alternator. >> and that laugh was real. you laugh you heard, that iconic laugh -- i used to work in cambridge and you could hear coming out of bars and restaurants as you walked by. guido, 77. those are our top headlines. most interesting election data check, futures on negative 3. yields a little higher. look at crude. we're now getting to an interesting point. nymex well under $80 a barrel. on to the next green. the vix is complacent. even brent crude breaks down under $83. the german bond yield, that is a wow statistic. 0.81. that is a stunning statistic on slown disinflation in

economic growth. to the bloomberg terminal. this is a chart showing moving averages and the volatility of oil. what is so scary about this, including the saudi's, and might point out republicans in the heartland addicted to an oil recovery that has really helped some of those senate states, it is down we go. this is what we call shock elegance. this has a beauty to it. there is nobody there to capture that movement down. in the parlance of "bloomberg surveillance" it is an elegant chart. >> every oil producer is sitting around looking at their own a given point. -- break even point. we haven't done this before. >> let's get to some synthesis on economics in the markets. our guest joining us on the challenges that are out there.

what does this drop in oil mean. >> think you for having me. it really depends on whether this is being driven by an adverse demand shock or positive supply shop. >> which is it? >> i think it is both. we have weakness in the area, recession, possibly. slower growth there. china is cooling. on the production side, u.s. production has been riffing up for some time. middle eastern production has been ramping. you have both elements. u.s. economy still it's pretty good. it is not booming, but it looks sound. >> talking about central banks. how do you model out earnings giving the shock in commodities, shocking gold. the shock for mr. corroded. where does the equity markets it in? >> the way i do it from a top-down perspective is we got some data from the isn yesterday.

the new orders is actually very powerful six-month leading indicator of earnings estimate growth. and then high-yield debt spreads as a proxy for shocks to liquidity demand. that model still is looking for both capital spending and earnings estimates growth, hyson will digits, low double digits. >> low double digits? can we have someone is bullish on the set? >> i think it is allowed on election day. talks who is spending what capital? >> if you look at the data, aircraft is up eight plus percent year-over-year. now it has been volatile. n the u.s. >> what does the benefit of these loyal prices start showing up in the numbers? >> i think you're seeing it now. we have airline stocks basically at a new all-time high. they went down 20% with the risk off correction. it will hurt some sectors. if you're investing in energy or

materials, that is ahead when, but there's a benefit to the consumer stocks, industrials transport, mention the airlines. so there should be some offset there. >> we have a good track record going into the fourth quarter numbers. we come out of 2014 with a big boon from lower oil prices. >> i think so. if we're just a blue looking at lower oil because economies all over the globe are rolling over, that is not a good thing. how do you know? i would sadly say this, for the u.s., watch jobless -- i would just say this for the u.s., watch jobless claims. if confidence is rolling over and you oil falling, that looks more like a recessionary outcome, not confidence that just set a new october-october data. this new cycle in the u.s. looks reasonably sound. >> are we looking at lower oil prices because of the economy or looking at a different poker game to determine what the price of oil is? looking athat we're

is short for supply-side versus globally for production in a weaker euro zone and a softening china. it is a commendation of those three forces. >> i have to ask about the headlines with jpmorgan saying it is under investigation for the currency probe. these big banks keep getting pulled over by these legal expenses. is that holding of the recovery symptomatic of what we are facing? been a regulatory and legal headwind for some time. this is not new. sure, it is been a web blanket and a persistent headwind. >> did you see boj coming? as i was? shocked >> i was pleasantly surprised. it is election day. the polls start to close and we will get things kicked off at 5:00 eastern. a one-hour special, with all the respect, following with a 2014

election special with pimm fox. and then extended coverage of the races across the united states echoes on all night. our twitter question of the day -- we need each and every answer you can give us. what is driving voter discontent on the selection day? from new york city, good morning. ♪

>> this is bloomberg.com "bloomberg surveillance." polls indicate the republicans will take the senate so how does the party facing its own division cover him with control of congress? phil mattingly joins us now from d.c. was some color.

"the newt the cover of york times," and "the wall street journal" it is about sour voters in the gop confident. is this the case of running to the opposition? what has changed in the last 24 hours? republicans are confident about where they are. i think when you have to get here, there is still some kind of trepidation that things could go terribly wrong a being the last one in four hours, but i think everything are looking at right now shows them in a good position going forward which aces the question of if they control the house and if they control the senate, what type of government are they planning on running? it is a big question out there and there are a number of issues raised as to whether or not they can actually be functional. one good thing, reasonably, they have to be better than they have been over the last two years but there's still a lot of open questions. >> is it possible that now they obamapossibly be barack in any more elections, they might be willing to cut a deal

with him? >> great question. if you talk to republican leadership staff on both the house and the senate, they desperately want to govern. they think that is their job. people thato show they're able to pass legislation, even of the president ends of vetoing it, showing they can do that is what they want to do. i was talking to a house republican or former house republican leadership aide yesterday. basically popping champagne on this day in 2010 when republicans took the majority. the aide just tarted laughing when i asked how excited should senate republicans be? it is hard. it is very difficult. if you watch what john boehner had to go through trying to get his conference and nine -- think about that in the senate when you have people like ted cruz were only one lawmaker, one legislator can basically hold up the entire agenda. that is what mitch mcconnell has to deal with going forward. >> who are the leaders of the get stuff done caucus? >> i think you'll see bob corker

has always been somebody while they been in the minority willing to get in the room with the white house and the administration officials and get something done. i think the more alexander, republican from tennessee as well, some do there as well. i think rob portman from ohio. you see a lot of big names that are willing to talk and have been talking to the white house over the last six to eight months. i think the wildcard here is 2016. i think a lot of those individuals, particularly portman, might be starting to position themselves for a potential presidential run. how that changes the dynamic in terms of willingness to get in a room and be seen trying to sign off on a deal with president obama, that is a big open question and i think one that could change the dynamic shortly after this election. >> i wonder how jeb bush and mitt romney fit into all of this ? they are big parts of the republican party. they are on the establishment

site, the type a republicans that will have difficult times in early primary states where you have strong conservative portions of those states that would be voting primaries. i think they're cognizant of that. that romney, everybody is floating to him right now in all of the big pulling for 2016 because he is the one everybody knows. there's remorse he isn't in the oval office when you look at some of the crises the president has had to face the past couple of years. establishment republicans are still very open into who is actually going to get into this race whether it is chris christie or jeb bush or any of the lows -- those lawmakers, those guys are establishment. the dysfunction within the party is going to hit them to the point where my next the undercut their candidacies going forward. national republicans are concerned about that. they've taken steps to try to cut back on the primary process in 2016 because they saw how wounded it romney was. >> how is ronald reagan going to do tonight? >> great.

if republicans win, ronald reagan is the ultimate winner, the man who can do no wrong. >> which will be 103 years this year. which ronald reagan shows up tonight about 9:00 p.m.? >> the one that is very commit her he happy with a victory, the one that will be responsible for the kind of ideological path of the agenda of the next two years. you will hearsay, ronald reagan stayman every single republican victory speech tonight for however many hundreds of lawmakers that includes. >> with a bunch of morning must reads. scarlet has like six today. reagan , this is before your time,phil --

i really thought that captured the moment, whatever anybody's political persuasion is. which reagan to they want? they don't want up with a ronald reagan of iowa who paid great homage to fdr, do they? >> absolutely not. they want to be the ronald reagan who was able to be viewed upon throughout the country as a rhetorical leader, as somebody who wasn't necessarily -- look, ideologically, they line up with him no matter what. how he was able to conduct himself while he was revered by the party 20, 30 years from now is whatever republican you talk to things is missing from the oval office. >> to what was said earlier, what is going to be the "how" of march 2015? i don't understand in any way how the two parties get together as a start to beat up on each other in iowa. look, tom, i am with you. i don't know the pathway forward. there is low hanging fruit legislatively they can try to get to, but this idea that there

could be some type of clue by your moment where everybody comes together and tries to find things to work on a move forward just doesn't exist right now. i think anyone looking for that to come in the next four to six months is going to be sorely disappointed. >> so none of the republican staffers you talked are interested in the ronald reagan who had tricks with tip o'neill? >> i think if you talk to leadership staff, they want governing to happen. they want to figure out a way to work with the white house. this is something that you hear all the time from republicans that white house officials scoff at, and that is the lack of trust right now with the white house. it is a very real thing on the republican side of things. they don't feel like there's any relationships to actually lean on right now. there's no trust that whatever they talk about with the white house won't eventually find its way out to the media, won't get them in trouble with the conservative side. , in that trust doesn't exist think this idea of drinks after work, even as we were

disagreeing, is just something that is not really in the cards right now. >> no trust, no relationship. midtermtingly on this election day. thank you for joining us. coming up in the next hour, we will continue the conversation. please,t says he says, whether they will work together before the 2016 presidential election. we will discuss more on the next hour of "surveillance." ♪

>> good morning. midterm election day. we will do that for the next 18

hours here at bloomberg television. we welcome you. we will completely stop our election coverage right now for a morning must-read. your scarlet fu. >> this combines my two favorite things, talking about economics and celebrities. celebrity central bankers. >> are we going to get taylor swift into this? >> we will leave her out of this one. that is good for investors because place bets on which they're pretty sure they're right, even when the prophet for dollars is fairly small. their predictable. michael darda with us.

is it out of control? do we have too much information? >> i guess you could probably make the argument that some central bankers may be over communicating -- >> like the fed? >> name some names. >> i will just say this. the celebrity really should be the market indicators. if you have the right target and you're looking at forward-looking information, allow the market doubt the central bank to set policy. this is the scott sumner university. >> help me here. >> we do not have to dive in discuss summer, but you scream like a teenager when janet yellen goes by. admit it. don't we like central bankers because the actually get stuff done? >> central bankers are very powerful in the sense they have a very significant effect on the business cycle were fiscal

policy, much slower moving, and even a debate about what the effects are. nominal shocks have real effects. this is, basically, friedman agreed that is the case. goingors in markets are to be very firmly focused on what central bankers are doing and saying, because it really matters. it matters to asset prices and the business cycle. goes,"yeah, you, i think you'll understand." we will be back. ♪

>> good morning, "bloomberg surveillance." in the distance, there is that one single person looking at a political ad on television. i say it is political ad-free from the island of manhattan. they cannot be set for the middle part of the country. from iowa, just unbelievable. absolutely, unbelievable. to our top headlines. >> there are things happening that have nothing to do with politics. sprint cut about 2000 jobs as a loose some drivers for the 11 straight quarter. sprint will illuminate about 6.5% of its 31,000 employees. 6.5% of its about 31,000 employees. blackstone nears a deal to sell its in core property units

according to two people with knowledge to the matter. the price is $8 billion. the owner of industrial real estate spend about 118 million square feet of warehouses throughout the u.s. virgin group founder sir richard branson says it is time for tougher regulations and taxation on the bitcoin industry in australia. he is not an enemy of the virtual currency. he has put $30 million into businesses that deal with bitcoin. writing about sir richard getting back to us for to america ipo and after the tragedy of this airplane blowing up, it is good to see sir richard getting back to business. >> there is a great piece of the opinion section talking about the difference between sir richard and branson the businessman. sir richard is the adventure and branson is not willing to do that.

the problem is when the two of them collide, and they do in his space company. >> i spent some quality time with them in tokyo over a six-month basis, for some reason. i cannot remember the details. he is just a very nice guy. i was sitting there like this. him and me. what we do? what do we do? he is just a very nice guy. anyways, virgin america which a lot of people -- full disclosure, i'm a big fan -- going toward their ipo. the data check. oil sell. west texas down $2.15. crude way through 83 this morning. good morning, canada. getting crushed this morning. european central bank, they meet with press conferences will ensue a believe thursday. all eyes will be turned not to frankfurt, but what oreo druggie thinks of tokyo after the bank of japan stunned. they have to adjust and adapt.

it makes for many known unknowns. , this is fun. you and i, we never have a dell moment about this. what is the bank think about what bank of japan did? >> i'm sure they disagree with that. >> i'll say. >> it is unfathomable to me you have for this bank officials essentially arguing the ecb has somehow done too much. too much based on what are they looking at? honestly, they're not looking at the monetary bases which has collapsed in the eurozone, down 30 plus percent from the 2012 highs. they're not looking at nominal gdp, which is flat on its back. inflation way below target. >> i want to get to ecb. ifhael darda, what happens mario draghi says to the bundis bank, forget about it?

many leading economists say, just see if they will blame. why is this a moment where mario draghi has to say, no, this is the way we're doing? >> it is the moment. the eurozone isn't fit -- is in jeopardy of failing as a currency experiment. the reason for that is monetary policy has been way too tight. this is not about physical headwinds or austerity. the u.k. in the u.s. actually have had or austerity over the last four years in the eurozone as a whole. if you look at the imf fiscal monitor, the swing the so-called to quickly adjusted balance over 500 basis points and he was over 400 in the u.k., 300 plus basis points in the euro area. so the underperformance in that business cycle in only be explained by monetary policy. so they need to get going and the need to get going soon. i was a curb your these he has them. if there's anything we know about the ecb, it is too little, too late and reversed too soon. --there's an ackerman acronym you keep coming back to.

we were talking earlier, since a lot like the academic work that scott sumner did, this lowly blogger writing for years trying to influence policy. it sounds like it is working with you. >> it is working with me. scott sumner is a leading light. he is huge influence on me. he now has a fairly wide following. he makes the point, it is simple but powerful. if you're looking at a monetary shocker in demand-side shock, you will see that in nominal gdp. if this is just about sure actual headwinds in the eurozone, supply-side factors, it doesn't really affect nominal gdp. nominal growth would look about normal and real gdp would be weak and inflation would be elevated. shock. a supply-side and eurozone, nominal growth flat on its back and inflation flat on its back. that is overly tight money. in of story. >> i want to go back to have the ecb has been consistent doing too little too late.

part of the shock was it was a total surprise. some of the people did not expect it. the board was divided at the boj. does the easy bee have the capacity to take investors by surprise -- does the ecb have the capacity to take investors by surprise structurally? marketas close, but still had enormous reaction. consider the fact we saw big rallies in european equities and u.s. equities with the boj took that action. that alone refutes this idea that somehow it is they grew thy neighbor and a zero-sum game. japan is still a growth from other parts of the world. >> that is the push back. >> yes, and it is nonsense. if japan a stronger, the rest of the global economy benefits from that. if the eurozone is flat on its back, that is a drag on global growth. i think the financial markets pretty much told us instantaneously that, one, he doesn't have to be a weather support a policy to have significant impact and not a zero sum game. frustration kind of

when you talk and in your notes. this is from november 3. if the ecb gets it right for once in a row, japanese like rise aseals would inflation expectations recover and growth expectations improved. why is this so hard? mean, i think a lot of the commentary out there, unfortunately, on the specific issue, is confused. for example. you many commentators relating the success or failure of qe to lower term interest rates. those german yields are 80 basis points, not because there has been qe in the euro area, but because the business cycle is flat on its back and inflation expectations have collapsed. if you're running a deflationary monetary policy, you will have low bond yields. if they run a policy that actually invites adequate nominal gdp growth, inflation expectations recover, those

heels will go up and not down. that would be a success. >> it almost sounds like you are paraphrasing. stagnation is always everywhere monetary phenomenon. >> friedman basically figured this out over a generation ago. if you just substitute nominal gdp for money stock in those writings, he just nailed it. he basically said, the only way you're going to have central banks that can keep bond yields consistently you -- low, is through monetary policy. we see that consistently. higher long rates than eurozone, which until recently, has -- >> our next block, michael darda . let's look at the photos right now. are they all of poker, and? -- are they all of paul krugman? >> we're back in hawaii. lava has been flowing for the

past four months. the slowest catastrophe ever. it is now only 480 feet -- >> oh! >> it is like we're watching this in real time every morning. president obama has signed a disaster -- >> do we have a lava czar? >> we're going to need one soon. town.ople in the some of them have been evacuated. no deaths or injuries reported so far. just great pictures. our number two photo, gop senate candidate mitch mcconnell stance with his wife and senator rand paul to campaign in louisville, kentucky. the senate majority or minority leader is not supposed to have to campaign like this. he is going to pull out a win, but he had to work hard to do it. >> has he ever been behind? >> it is the woman behind the man here that is interesting. >> i totally agree. full disclosure, secretary chow

i to be out front invisible. >> elaine chao is driving this whole thing. >> i agree. >> maybe she could be the majority leader. >> that would be an upgrade. >> are number one photo from nasa. >> spectacular. is way away. that is not saturn. that is the moon. >> that is titan. putting offhe sun the ocean. the sailboat you have is floated -- >> the sailboat is gone. that may be where it is. it sold . it is still no other place in the solar system with oceans. -- it is the only other place in the solar system with oceans. >> i did not know that. coming up, we're going to go

back on the election beach because coming up for many americans, other issues are a lot more important in today's midterms. we will tell you which issues are stealing the spotlight with our single best chart, next on "surveillance." ♪

>> good morning, "bloomberg surveillance." election day. markets are on the move. the german tenure, truly on the edge of tokyo. i am on the edge of my seat for our single best chart. >> it is an election day chart. it shows americans are disengaged.

according to research, voters are a lot more concerned about other issues such as ebola. 36% of those polled said that was the biggest issue. u.s. airstrikes against islamic state took second place, 31%. even the secret service problems came in at 21%. >> that is my favorite part of the chart. the secret service problems are more pressing than the midterm elections. that was those said the biggest thing. that through attention -- 15% of the said that was the biggest thing, that drew their attention. a political reporter based in washington joins us. we talk about how voters are disengaged across the country. how does it feel in washington? is this a typical midterm election year or is it even more subdued? >> for political junkies, this is a pretty exciting midterm because there are so many close races. we're probably not going to know

who is going to control the senate tonight when we go to bed or when most of america goes to bed. from that regard, that is a big question. we probably won't know the answer to it. there's such a huge landscape to cover. races,in terms of close i don't really hear any of these issues that people are actually focused on been brought up to the campaign, whether it is a bolo or u.s. airstrikes against isis, whether it is secret service problems. none of these are really percolating as campaign issues. >> i think part of this, looking at 10 very local races around the country. if you live in new hampshire, you will be hearing this message shares from scott brown who is china nationalize the race or if you live in louisiana, you will the races.from the democrats are trying hard to stay with from the us issues and keep the focus really on local, whatever local issues are important. >> have you castrated a pig?

did you do that at wellesley? >> i did not. >> would you explain this? the seismic change of castrating a pig in iowa? what does it say to a political analyst like you? >> it says there is a way to connect to voters. that is what politicians are trying to do and break through this onslaught of ads. looking at nearly $4 billion on tv ads in a midterm election, and you have a pig castration ad and suddenly there is something you can talk to and it is funny. it just gets through the clutter. >> julia roberts and loved it. remember? >> that laugh. it doesn't seem like there's a gulf between those of us will be sitting on the edge of our seats and wondering whether to see who pulls it out in louisiana, and voters who are saying, i don't really feel like this is going to make a difference in my life. >> it will make a difference.

you are right. you are right. it will make a difference to how 2016 is set up, so that is way inside baseball for most americans were not taking or who are just barely turning into the elections midterm and out the gate about the presidential elections. >> we want to bring in our twitter question of the day. , what is it?rda >> i just think it is just than beingher specific. i don't think the election is going to change much. we will still be gridlocked. >> what is the discontent? >> the voter kids -- discontent? they see nothing been done in their government. like you said, i don't think that is going to change. even if you have the republicans take back the senate, as is expected, republicans have had a hard time governing among their own party. i don't think that will change at all. >> do you buy all the happy talk that if the republicans win control the will actually need

to govern in the lead up to 2016? >> watch the house tried to pass legislation, i think it will be a big challenge for them. >> "the wall street journal" what does it have to do to take the trophy? >> that is a great question. >> is it get out the black vote? >> she does have to get out the black vote. we think this is one of the races that will go into a runoff. getting the black vote and getting women to vote for her is huge. if she can couple that together, perhaps we avoid a runoff. >> maybe we should put the ?witter question tweet us. it is the atlanta braves replacement. willg up, greg valliere give us his analysis on this midterm election. cynical.e someone more

unbelievable. >> we will be right back. ♪

begin 18orning, we hours of election coverage here at bloomberg television.

tonight, with all the respect, look for them at 5:00 a.m., election 2014 post up 6:00 p.m. with further perspective. as the close -- polls close, election all night, from 7:00 p.m. until 3:00 a.m. john is doing nothing to arkansas is a certain announcement. i think that is at 1:00 a.m. >> and there could be runoffs as well. >> we will be doing this until january, watching louisiana. >> i think mark halperin's arty on to 2016. >> are you kidding? nie is a ready talking about 2016. i want to talk about 2015. you are plugged into this alternate reality matrix which is d.c. which means you're not watching the senate, you're watching the house. what is going to change in these house elections? >> it is interesting because on one level, the republicans -- john boehner will have a very

good night. he will wake up and have a larger majority. the problem is, he will have more people in the majority of said they will not vote for him, which means he will have a harder time cobbling together a majority to get his legislation passed. >> michael darda come a we were talking over the break, it was almost sweet. yet this beautiful hope something might get done. what is your short list of things to have happened? >> i'm skeptical anything productive will get done. i think it is a gridlocked situation. if a miracle occurs, maybe there could be some common ground at immigration reform or corporate tax reform where moderates in both parties have at least paid lip service to this. but considering that boehner will have difficulty with the more conservative caucus, if they pass a corporate tax reform that also attaches a gutting of obamacare, forget it. that is not going anywhere. >> annie, what is the linkage of republicans or democrats, two

parties him a senate and house, what other day-to-day linkages? >> how much do those to talk to each other? how much goes on? they talked to one another. that is been part of a problem. with ted cruz coming over to the house and rallying a conservative caucus -- >> but does mitch mcconnell spend a lot of quality time with john boehner? >> yes. they're going to have to. they're going to have to get there ducks in a row to show the mecca people they can pass something. the problem is, boehner has been unable to do it even with the caucus that has been supportive of him. when that support shrinks, it is going to be even more difficult to get immigration reform. >> can you call it? do you think we're going to have a new house majority leader? >> don't put her on the spot. have is not that he won't

enough to become majority leader, it is just the number of people who don't like him and don't support him and can't count on gets bigger. post" -- howngton is pat roberts doing? they're all quoting reagan. he is the closest approximation we have to that era. is he in a victory lap? >> i don't think you should be in a victory lap at this point. that is one of the races that is going to be close to call. it will be interesting to see if he goes down. still, he is by no means in the clear and he should have been. >> you have the smartest comment of hurt in the analysis, which is in six seconds, you know what republican believes it and it takes you six days to figure out what a democrat -- >> i can't describe what democrats want. is by design. they don't want to be talking about national issues.

>> thank you so much. stay with us. ♪ . .

>> this is "bloomberg

surveillance." day. is election republicans lead by a little or a lot and eight of 13 key races. compares jonicrat ernst to taylor swift. we go in search of higher yields. and it is an american tradition -- how does a loser give a concession speech with grace and dignity? it has yet to happen this century. good morning, everyone. this is "bloomberg surveillance." 4.is tuesday, november i am talking in. brendan greeley and scarlet fu joining me. alibaba in the september terminal? have -- a number here, $2.70. i think it is in yen.

alibabaormat for is different than what we see for most u.s. earnings. this is the first earnings report of alibaba after they have went public. the stock has been a moon, something to watch here. >> it is all in yen. >> every incumbent has shares in alibaba. we will come back to that. increase in mobile monthly users for alibaba. have no idea what that means. >> it is a big number. in the midterm elections, the gop needs to pick up six seats. they happen trying to capitalize on obama' slacking rating study my >> victory is in the air. we are going to bring it home tomorrow night. [cheers and applause]

years of borrowing and spending and taxing and regulation, these people need to be stopped, and it starts tomorrow night. >> mitch mcconnell is in a tight race with democrat alison grimes. if he wins, mcconnell may could be the next leader. and bloomberg election coverage perhaps goes all night long with bloomberg politics election all nighter. the fiscal situation has not changed this much in 46 years. economic growth has pushed the budget deficit down to the lowest since 2008. the shortfall -- $483 billion. 10%budget if that peaked at in december 2009. taxpayers will save on interest charges. borrowing this order will fall to the leased in seven years. >> we have not seen oil this cheap in three years. west texas intermediate down

close to 4% this morning below $76 a barrel. arabiason -- and saudi is dropping its prices. saudi's just reduced to the price is a charges u.s. customers, oil is down more than 20% this year. here is investor mark ballmer. >> maybe the declining oil prices tells you the global economy is not recovering and though the bullish analysts think. piless. oil stock have risen. talk's tom magliozzi dies. ivy grads.them were they would talk about anything

and everything. >> and they were so gracious to people like me that have no clue third i never called in, but you get the great fun of a man or a woman from the middle america calling an older honda civic, and they would do it with dignity that was absolutely original. >> and it was the two of them, it was not the format. i talks to npr executive and they said every week we get a pitch of someone who says i will do car talk but for plants or for pets. you were a big fan? >> i was, and my brother went to m.i.t., and so i have this fond memory of being at my brothers graduation and them coming on, and they were great. linsky --ow, any annie linskey with us. also joining us, adam frankel, he has written for president

obama. speechwriters never get the credit do. what was it like working for ted sorensen? >> i liked working for him. ted isry speechwriter, iconic. >> i had wonderful interviews with him and honored of 1953, i guess it was 2003. there was a that tally. are the speeches of a written with the same methodology we saw years ago? >> no. that a greatd is speech should be in a great speeches book. .oday that is not the case >> a primal scream for a political history that we used to have that we don't have today. is there anybody in the selection getting the rhetoric right, where you sit up, whatever their party, and say wow, they are really doing it. >> i will tell you summit, president obama is one of the most gifted orders and speechwriters.

the president is not off his game. when whatever we get edits back from the president, they always improve our speeches. >> why does it feel like he is off his game, though? when he speaks, people do not get moved and stirred the way they did before. >> he has been president for a number of years and it happens anytime in the second term, there have been a number of crises. this is par for the course. >> we go to phil mattingly as we take a look at this hour at the jamboree this evening. >> the polls indicate the republicans will take the senate. phil mattingly come our washington correspondent, with some color right now. well.p is going to do is there any trauma left here? what is the one race everything is hinged on? >> there is definitely still drawn the left, scarlet your. republicans have a lot of pathways to the majority.

all of that is accurate, but all of these polls come about six or seven races that are absolutely crucial, are pretty much within the margin of error. what that means is if the democratic ground game is as great as the democratic senatorial campaign committee is making it out to become if they are able to pull whatever the president of the team did in 2012 and skillet on the state level, there is a possibility that upsets can happen, but it is not leaning that way. that is something at least we consider today, guys. >> i like that a lot. annie linskey, that plus or -2%, 3%, discussed that. >> phil is absolutely right. a $70 millionwas investment in february 2013 into these ground games and making sure that the ground game and get out the vote can be worth two points or three points. >> do you trust the polls? >> i trust some of them. the polls in new hampshire i

know are very good. in other parts of the country, no, i don't. >> we don't know where we are going to >> adam, the most interesting election for rhetoric needs to be louisiana. you have mitch landrieu, who wants to run close to the president because he is in new orleans, mary landrieu, his sister, who wants to run as far away from the president as she can. down there tot determine a message, what are you having her say? >> let's take a step back and talk about the structural issues here. this election structurally is one of the worst maps, the worst map for a modern president in 50 years. of the 24 states president obama lost in 2012, 80% have sin elections this year. you combine that with the fact that moderate presidents have --t stretching back to >> you have to wage a war on the map you're given, so they still have options. >> sure.

always boggles my mind -- when does the power of incumbency become such a negative? you have got the power of incumbency. >> but that requires actually getting a lot of stuff done. to mostynicism extends people because they feel like the issues are not being discussed right now. phil mattingly, we talk so much about the people. what about the issues? i know marijuana tops a couple of states' agendas. >> there has been so much focus on the federal and senate elections, even on some of the house, governor races. on the state level, these ballot initiatives are really important. all you have to do is look at colorado and look at washington state on the marijuana issue. they basically flipped the issue on their head a couple of years ago by deciding to vote on the state level to legalize it. on the issues this time around, you have minimum wage, a huge issue on the federal side here it is the white house has been pushing this in a major way the last couple of months.

red states -- republicans have been in the way of the white house trying to increase the minimum wage. and red state like arkansas, alaska, south dakota, minimum wages on the ballot, and that it actually move forward, guys. >> phil mattingly, thank you for joining us from washington. me to get excited about this election because i do not care about the people involved, but an issue captures my attention. >> you have folks like joni ernst to our opposing increase to the minimum wage. >> our election coverage tonight as we begin at this morning, stay here for the complete coverage, five :00 p.m. "with all due respect" and then all election coverage beginning at 7:00 p.m. this evening. stay with us. ♪

>> this is "bloomberg surveillance." i am scarlet fu here with tom keene and brendan greeley. our guest host for this hour as adam frenkel, a former speechwriter who went back to the private sector. for a talent agency for programmers and coders. you've had a lot of experience building trust through messaging. that was your basic job at the white house. tell us about how difficult it is to connect with the audience when the audience is not always a really defined.

>> the most of what is a for a speechwriter is to be authentic and to capture the voice of the person you are writing for. oft was easier in the case the speechwriters on the 2008 campaign and in 2012 we believe in the mission and what we were doing, and that is what builds that connection with an audience is knowing that you can trust the person you're speaking to. >> is consistency overrated? criticism of the president is that he goes back to the same playbook and there is not that spontaneity. >> i understand that criticism. i think that criticism is right for today's media environment where those sorts of things are pumped up but the reality is look, this is a guy -- you can trust him, you know where he stands. books,, you look at his and he is material from that. electede very few leaders who stay consistent over that length of years. >> how about 1962? here is mr. nixon.

talk about unrehearsed, exit stage right him and he did exit stage right to do much better six years on. i want you to think about how much you will you missing. nixon to kickve around anymore, because gentlemen, this is my last press conference. " nixon, could that happen today? >> yes, it could happen today. it is a lot harder. the entire machinery of politics has evolved and put a pressure on dampening that kind of spontaneity. that is absolutely true. john heilemann and mark halperin kick that around. >> he campaigned and worked so hard for republican candidates -- why don't we see obama doing that? wyeth's rhetoric not playing right now and the rest of america? >> he has been campaigning aggressively on behalf of

candidates -- >> governors. >> where did he go? >> not to keep races in the senate. >> look, there is no question this is a tough climate. the issues that president obama -- his popularity, we know were that is, but the reality if you look at the economist with over the past number of years and they are real. >> at of franco, former speechwriter for the president, our guest post for the hour. -- adam frenkel, the former speech writer for the president, our guest host for the hour. ♪

>> good morning, everyone. election day -- this is "bloomberg surveillance." markets deteriorate to some extent, no question about that. oil, $76.49. all of the currencies adjusted around that as well. $1170 right now. it would not be a "surveillance"

election without a conversation with gregory belair -- gregory valliere of the potomac research group. he believes in gridlock, greg valliere says let the 2016 opera commence. greg, you are so good at moving forward from the immediate moment. who will president obama call first tomorrow morning? >> good morning, tom. thank you for the kind words. i'm sure he will call boehner and mcconnell and he will pledge to work with him, but these kinds of pledges are meaningless. both sides have such enormous differences. maybe we get in asia-free trade deal, but idle see any really big -- but i don't see any big breakthroughs. >> one of our big thieves this morning, greg, has been a fractious nest not of the senate of the report in house.

is mr. boehner going to have difficulty hurting the cats? >> one of the big stories we will be talking about is -- which waited the republicans go? did they take the ted cruz confrontational approach? looking for a fight on the debt ceiling, things like that. or do they go with a pragmatist like boehner and mcconnell he want to show the country they can govern ahead of 2016? >> in your research notes from yesterday, you write that there is only one democrat capable of snapping the party out of its funk this winter -- all eyes will be on elizabeth warren. it turns that we have an actual real, life, democrat in the studio right now. adam frankel, is elizabeth warren a funk breaker? >> i think elizabeth warren can speak to the and variety and concerns among middle-class americans. that is authentic, true to her background. she has been a champion her entire life, so in that respect, i think she can capture the moment. >> different rhetoric than the president's rhetoric.

edge to, and it has an it, i think. mek, part of what drew andrew a lot of people to the president is his ability to bring people together and unify in 2008. that is part of that original rhetoric. this is a different kind of rhetoric. >> for those of you on bloomberg radio, lots of red and blue this morning, brendan greeley, the trends that we see out there and may the major trend is a polarization. >> i think we have been talking about that forever. greg valliere, do you see anything going on in this election that you are deeply cynical about or is this a long-term trend? >> a six-year or eight-your presidency, this is to be expected. the one factor that does not get enough attention is the lack of purchasing power, real disposable income on the part of most americans. the stock market is up,

unemployment is down, the economy is ok, but the average american family has seen purchasing power stagnant for seven years or 80 years, so it is inevitable that this is going to come back to slam the democrats. >> i am glad you bring that up. you point out that grim reality yet at the same time washington has been a pretty positive factor for the markets. there is lots of data that shows the s&p 500 tends to rise in midterm election years. why are stocks rallying in the face of a midterm election that has brought lots of cynicism? >> i would argue some the different can be cathartic and we will get something different, we will at least get pledges of tax reform, maybe reducing regulation. i think if you give people a little bit of hope, if you make the country think that may be the politicians are listening, again, it is a cathartic impact and i think the markets also love the idea that we will at least be an to talk about tax reform. >> greg, let's look at what america is looking at, which is unemployment. it is always about jobs.

is the regular unemployment rate for those on radio, you have heard me talk about this a bazillion times. 6 rate is still way above its normality. greg, what will be the mandate for republicans to fix the job economy if they get ready to finally win in 2016? tom,think first of all, they cannot over interpret tonight's results. it looks like a route for the republicans, but if they come out of this tomorrow morning saying we have a sweeping mandate, no, this is a manic against barack obama. is a mandate against barack obama, a reflection of the voters think the government is not working the way they would like government to work, some republican have to play small ball, focus on for you trade. kill obamacare, it will fail for the one millionth time. that is not productive to at a nazi a lot they could do other than changing the tone.

>> greg, you say a lot of zone to median income and how it has not increased. is a unifyingthis problem for the barack obama presidency that you have really great financials and really bad economics for normal people. how do you square that? >> it is tough, and this is a challenge with the rhetoric, an environmentin where you know trends are improving but people still feel the tension there everyday life spirit you talk about on a plymouth, it has gone from 10% to roughly 5%. eirthere everyday life -- th everyday lives. you talk about unemployment, it has gone from 10% to 5%. there are some real improvements. adam frankel speaking in one tone and greg valliere speaking in a different. greg valliere, safe travels,

with potomac research group. scarlet? >> let's get to our twitter question of the day today, it is a cynical question, what is driving voter discontent on the selection day? tweet us @bsurveillance. we will be right back. ♪

>> can want to come everyone. "bloomberg surveillance." -- good morning, everyone. "bloomberg surveillance." coverage on the election. i tom keene, with me scarlet fu and brendan greeley as well. >> allison linderman grimes declined to say whether she voted for barack obama. the election is not over yet, but we can say democrats failed to say what they were for. adam frankel, former white house speechwriter, i know you can do this -- help me out here. in three sentences, what is the democratic party platform? >> fighting for the middle class. >> there you go, one sentence. >> ima speechwriter, i keep it pithy. fighting for the middle class. it depends on the race we are talking about, these are state-by-state races. when it comes to iowa, we are

talking about increasing the minimum wage or we are talking about protecting social security. >> but you were known as the guy who could bring in sort of bible quotes, who can really make an audience feel something, and when you talk about iowa, we have got this great line, you know, the castrating hogs that is resonating with everyone, including the republican donor. that inan example of democratic rhetoric this year, something that has worked that way. >> president clinton did an excellent job on that the other day talking about how we do not want to make the middle class squeal, in reference to that ad. [laughter] it was pretty good. clinton isbill cheating. >> it was a good line. >> adam frankel with us, formerly with president obama

writing speeches, annie linskey read the speeches, thought they were terrible. if we are going to represent the middle class, republicans i guess don't is the basic theme of democrats. is that really valid going forward in 2016? an economy election, or is this about good old red-blooded politics? >> d.c. politics is trying to grab that message. >> republicans love that message. >> you see rand paul talking about it. everybody is looking for that group of voters. sometimes you feel it, elizabeth warren and rand paul -- >> ok, "surveillance" gametime, average income level of the middle class, go. --average income level $50,000. >> or bob gibbs, -- republicans, annie. stop, it is like $240,000.

you are right, $60,000, $70,000 -- >> who is in the middle class? it is shrinking, it is a bifurcated america. the middle class that democrats purportedly are speaking to is pretty wide and divisive. >> to your point, we have been talking about polarization early on the show, talking about political polarization and income polarization, these are all wedges in which the country is being divided and frankly a lot of politicians are exploiting that. that is part of what contributes to the cynicism. >> and a very narrow messaging that takes place as well as. >> that is one of the things i think we are out in the country, that is one of the messages that it just does resonate, and whether it is coming from a democrat or a republican, there are people out there who are really hurting and feeling that squeeze, and some of them are articulating it by continuing to

mop up the tea party and others are at elizabeth warren events cheering. >> will they vote? the turnout tonight, the fact is it is very low. it isyou are a democrat, really low. democrats have problems getting their voters to the polls. >> what is the republican turnout? >> we know this, though, this is what happens in midterms. midterms have lower turnouts, it is a general thing about midterms. i would expect that today, but i do not know that is going to have the reflection of anything more than just sort of what happens in these elections. >> annie linskey, thank you, we will send a coffee. of bloomberg politics helping us out today. >> let's get a data check on this midterm election david we had economic data yesterday that move the markets, not so much this morning. rhino futures are down by three points, the 10 year yield is also coming -- right now, futures are down by three points, the 10-year yield is also coming down.

brendan, we also had alibaba report earnings, the first earnings report as a public company. adjusted earnings beat analyst'' yen,ates, tw$2.79 alibaba moving higher in the market right now. >> good when it come everyone. this is "bloomberg surveillance." us scarletene, with fu and brendan greeley. markets have a little bit better tone here than what we have seen. oil is front and center, a major global story here in a domestic show this morning, scarlet. roads diverged in a wood and the fed took the road less traveled by. and thebank of japan ecb are heading the same way as the fed lays down the groundwork to a different path. what does this mean for your fixed income strategy echo jim caron of morgan stanley oversees

global fixed income and joins us now in studio. welcome. you save effect was the knowledge make him a that structural not cyclical factors are holding up the labor market is significant, but a lot of people have talked about that for months on end, yield years n end. what has changed with the fed was the admission? >> what has changed is that janet yellen has started talking about it. she brought it up august we second at the jackson hole symposium and where she aligned herself with some labor market theories that it is really more about structural unemployment, so when they look at the decline participationorce rates, they thought it was declining at a faster trend and faster pace mainly due to structural factors, and i think that creates a very different dynamic than what we were told in the past, which was more cyclical dynamics. >> jim, you have such a heritage of gaining interest rates be her do what's are lik -- rates. the woods are dark and deep but

i have miles to keep. when do we get the promise of higher yields to bailout retirees? >> well said, wow. that is a function of where we think the terminal feds fund rate is whether it will be longer-term, so when we think about that, you think about pace versus path. the path of interest rates is not in question. interest-rate zahra zero, they will probably move higher, we do not think they are going to move negative. it is a question of how fast we get there. if we think that 2% is the new funds, rate for said then that would argue that you would get a fair value on the 10-year today at 1.7%. if we think the fair value for the fed funds rate is around 3.5%, then that would be a fair value on the 10-year note today at about 2.7%. different than where you think the terminal fed funds rate will be pure to >>

did you see how he explained calculus there in english? >> they are all targeting 2% inflation for it i have a note from bill gross, part of his investment outlook for the month now at janice capital of course, and he doubts about inflation and deflation and how there is a thin line between the two. prices change, and while they usually go up these days, sometimes they do not we are at such a moment of uncertainty. that one or the other should be favored is a fascinating debate. your thoughts on that. >> i think it is right. it effectively we have both. we have some inflationary pressures and we have some i would not say deflation but we have some dis-inflationary pressures, particularly as it comes to wages. wages have not really risen in the u.s., and that is really the issue -- we have had ok growth, not as fast as we would like. we have some inflation right now, but we are not getting enough in wage inflation. a lot of that has to do with a lot of calculations on a slack

in the labor markets, when this pent up, as janet yellen would refer to, pent-up wage deflation would start to actually come back and exert upward pressure on wages. >> i want but adam frankel on the spot, this is your job to take the complex economics of the last eight years and turn it into rhetoric. what we have heard is the slack in labor market, the unused potential. how do you turn that into rhetoric? >> the way to turn complicated arguments, whether they are about economics or anything else, into something that is compelling is to make about people and to tell stories. that is what it comes down to, that is what a great speech is, so telling the story of how people are living in this economy or are making things better for themselves and how we are working together to improve people's lives is how you do it. >> what is the story as you head into the fourth quarter in 2015? >> we do have central-bank policy very divergent between the ecb and the doj, the

federal bank of england will probably be moving accommodation, so what we think is that we will have a very un correlated story in interest-rate spirit we think it will be more range bound and an opportunity for earned income disparity. >> jim caron, stay with us. ♪

>> this is "bloomberg surveillance." fu here with tom keene and brendan greeley. as voters head to the polls, the question is -- what economic impact does this have on businesses? i am joined by "in the loop" a n nchor betty liu. >> everything is so negative out there in the elections but there is actually one really big piece of positive news that nobody is paying attention to -- our budget deficit. it has now front to the smallest level since 2008. yous at $434 billion, and would think that would be a huge boost to the democrats, to obama, but it is a headline that has essentially been ignored. there are so many other issues on the table and you see the democrats struggling to troll the senator it for us capitalists, -- struggling to control the senate. one says asalists, we see a senate controlled by

the republicans and of course the president in the white house, that is actually going to be positive for the market because it means that basically nothing huge or game changing is going to happen. >> betty, speak for yourself. i do not have enough money to be a capitalist. [laughter] adam frankel, how do you take what betty just said and turn it into a speech? this is a really big deal. why don't the democrats make more hay out of this. >> this is part of the issue in this election is republicans are missing the deficit because it has been cut by two-thirds. >> why aren't the democrats talking about it? >> there are a variety of reasons. we are all familiar with the rollout, etc. >> nobody can take credit for it. a kind of just happened in a way by accident. paid on thend a fence, it did not get there by accident. >> the reality is four times as

many people in kentucky are covered now as a result of obamacare van constituted mitch mcconnell's margin in the last election, so this is happening. real people's lives are being improved, and this is a real issue, to your point, but republicans cannot talk about it because they know that some of these things are improving on the ground. >> and the president cannot think a live victory lap because he has been missing -- >> he cannot take a victory lap over, either, which he ought to be is the market. the markets have actually done remarkably well under the president. we continue tof see a split congress, look, we had a split congress over the last several years in the markets have gone up on average 13% or more, so it has been good for the markets as well. >> does the middle class care about the stock market rising? >> the middle class cares about their own pockets rising, and this is the challenge with rhetoric. when you see the market indicators improving, if people

do not feel it in their everyday lives, it is tough to talk to it. with morganecaron stanley as well, financial depression continues in your world o. >> rates are low, it is hard for savers, and then there are structurally unemployed who have a hard time coming back into the labor force. >> you don't see that going away? thank you so much. >> jim caron and betty liu, anchor of "in the loop." tom, brendan, and i will be back with more "bloomberg surveillance." ♪

>> it is the morning after. there is no better way to kick off the view to twice 16th and with robert horvath of course working -- robert hormats working with secretary state clinton, now with kissinger associates, joining us on our interesting geopolitics and robert hormats on the physical confidence of the united states of america. really looking forward to that on television and radio tomorrow. let's get to our election date top headlines. i think it is completely nonpolitical. >> it is totally apolitical we will add jpmorgan to the list of inks under criminal investigation over foreign

currency d-link or the bank says it is cooperating with the justice department probe. it will set aside another $1.3 billion to handle possible losses in this case. cow says casino wreck of a new takes another plunge to a record fifth straight monthly decline. business has taken a big hit as china's anticorruption crusade costs gamblers to cut back on their lavish spending. and disney broadens its movie sharing app to include android users will have no trouble that are hit features like "frozen." >> ♪ i don't care what they are going to say ♪ previously only for apple devices. disney partnered with apple. the movie management service allows a customer to buy a

disney film and view it on any service. >> you guys could not see us, but tom had his eyes close and was gently swaying back-and-forth to the music of the came into our ear pieces. >> that is tom's quiet place, "frozen." right? >> yes. nyu is having a course this fall "frozen," the existential crisis. >> something has happened, someone hit tom on "frozen," and he declined to field it. is, amid of the many stereotypes of africa, let's start with the stereotype like the entire continent has ebola or maybe they are one big currency devaluation, whatever your reality is on africa, africa must jumpstart technology, they must start writing a code. adam frankel has joined us with

his abilities on language and speech writing. right now he is working with the inl institute of lagos nigeria. this is a fascinating sidebar to what you have been doing. how did you get to a point of helping africans figure out technology? >> when i was working with the president, among the speeches were the education speeches, so when i left the white house, for the past couple of years, i have been doing a variety of stuff that has led me to do something trainingck to helping brilliant young people in africa to be coders. >> your london school of economics international relations work into how the u.s. government and u.s. business rejects to africa. >> look, i think when it comes to us we live in a globalized world, and we have to recognize that there is a role, especially now for entrepreneurs to work in places like africa, in countries

like nigeria where we are operating, to train young people to be brilliant coders and place them with top employers around the world. this iss like kenya, already happening with or without u.s. government intervention. kenya is leading everybody and mobile payments, for example. what can the u.s. add that is not already being done? >> what the u.s. can add of a separate conversation. what we're doing here at andela,t the startup i am a part of, we are looking to expand to kenya to collaborate with the government and companies to train young people to be coders and replace them with companies around the world. >> the two places where this activity is happening is kenya and nigeria, where the big cables come ashore, where the infrastructure is. what other places in sub-saharan africa are wired and ready to do this? africalook at southern and south africa and south

africa. where we are operating, we post wires beneath our offices to ensure high-quality transmission, ensure that the coders we are training are able to perform at the level that folks here in the united states are operating at a >> have you placed anyone yet? >> absolutely. we recruited people over the summer, we had 5200 applicants for the first 28 slot spirit we are inviting them to train to be world-class developers, and we place the first slots with a series of clients and we have a wait list for our upcoming classes. >> that is impressive. how do you make the pivot back to america to ensure that u.s. companies are looking at the new source of talent? >> there is a massive shortage of technical talent. we know that. there are four open jobs for every developer in our country. they are looking for talented what we are seeing is there are incredibly largest populations of untapped talents, so we're

focusing on africa, fastest-growing population in the world your it we are looking at places like this that have traditionally not been leveraged in terms of talent and trying to tap into that and bring it to companies around the world. of the nonprofit work has been focused on building good charter schools. this is my morning must-read, the paper from the national bureau of economic research, and there is a quote that is basically, although average is quite someit are 22011, there is compelling evidence that market forces are generating dynamic improvements in the charter sector. so the market is working overtime to improve and consolidate charter efforts. is that a fair way to look at it? >> the charter movement in the united states is mixed. it depends state by state, sometimes within states how they are doing. a lot of folks say they are pro-charter or anti-charter -- you really have to look at it on a case-by-case, state-by-state basis or some are doing great,

some are not. >> are there states getting it right? >> there are a lot of places individually getting a ride. parts in new york, parts across the country, traditional places like ohio that have not gotten it as right as often. it is a complicated picture that you need to look at on a case-by-case basis. >> it seems like there is no general rule. >> that is right or >> let's get to our twitter question of the day. we asked -- what is driving voter discontent on the selection day? the first answer -- this is pretty straightforward -- jobs, jobs, jobs. >> totally agree. nothing has changed from 1840, 1740, it that is all it is about. >> the second one has to do with the economy as well. the economy is still lackluster on main street and nursing america's gravitas eroding abroad. voters feel weak. >> that is the hardest thing to adjust to as an american that we just do not have power in the world. >> is that by design?

>> there is certainly a real i made an adjustment happening around the world, but to say that we don't have power -- you look at what president obama has said in recent weeks. when there is a problem around the world, whether it is a conflict, a humanitarian disaster, people call the united states. >> he also says we do not have options and invites the world to help us out. with whatibutes what we have had this conversation many years before. as we go to 2016, how do the two parties crystallize that key debate? >> that is going to be the issue of 2016. the issue will be the fight for the middle class and this economic inequality divide. about theesting tuitions, but across this nation, there is a wide disagreement on what the vision is of middle-class. >> i think there absolutely is, that is absolutely fair. the other point i would make -- we have been talking about the

structural nature of the map in 2014. there are structural applications -- implications to the map of 2016. >> it gets better in two years? >> a number of the states that the president won in 2012 and 2008 hassan elections. >> -- has senate elections. >> final answer to our twitter question of the day -- all of the fighting -- they cannot do their job. a a lot of thee back-and-forth, not out of the civil war, but just before the progressive era. >> what will be the job of the president and the next two years? >> the challenge that any president faces in the last two years of a second term, which is doing as much as they can in an environment where they are less popular, where they have got a congress that is not helping them out, and they don't have as much power.

>> adam, thank you so much. adam frankel with us. great work in africa. stay here through the day for your election coverage. "with all due respect" at 5:00 p.m. ♪

>> good morning. it is tuesday, november 4. we are alive from bloomberg headquarters. and i amn the loop

betty liu. it is polling day around the country. a big day in washington as we await the midterm election result. all the races you need to keep an eye on with a great set of guests. ceo ron feinstein joining me. staying in washington, the u.s. budget deficit is at its lowest level since 2008. we will catch up with the former office manager and budget orszag. peter of heat in recent days, including questions of how to deal with the threat of ebola. i caught up with arnold donald. first, a look at our top story this morning. voters are deciding today with congress will look like for the next two years.