>> rochester rocks british politics. >> if we can win here we can win across the country. fixing a broken system, obama outlines his plans to allow undocumented immigrants to stay in the u.s. setting him on course for a clash with congress. >> are we a nation that rips parents from their children's arms or do we value families and work to keep them together?

>> welcome to "countdown." again?candy king crush the cofounder of king as it launches its latest game. >> it is hard for any game to try to beat candy crush because of them massive success, crush is taking a great game that players love and the early indication is they do love it. voters have voted the second u.k. party candidate to parliament. the man who left the conservatives for a party which

wants to take the u.k. out of the european union. >> he won the seat with the majority of 3000 votes pushing the thirdvatives place, it was a bad night for all the three major parties. >> mark reckless dedicated his candidate -- victory to the vultures of rochester. -- voters of rochester. toi wish i had the word press how grateful i am because this is your victory. ,s you savor it think of this rochester was the 271st most winnable seat, if we win here we can win across the country. if you vote ukip, you get ukip. david cameron has not yet

given his reaction but is expected to speak later this morning but the majority chairman said the result was disappointing. joining us will be the former advisor to tony blair and the king college london lecturer ed oardo bressanelli f later this morning nigel erage will be speaking to us on "countdown." >> fixing a broken system that is how president obama describes his move to defer deportation. he outlined his plan to defer deportation and to help millions of immigrants aced on their strategy ties, a strategy which has set him on course for a showdown.

the biggest category of people affected our 4.1 million, of those who have been in the u.s. for more than five years. the move would not grant citizenship for the right to stay to undocumented immigrants but it does mean they would not be deported. >> some of the critics of this action call it amnesty. it is not. amnesty is the system we have today. millions of people live here without playing -- paying taxes or playing by the roles of politicians use the issue to scare people and whip up votes at election time. that is the real amnesty. leaving it the way it is. mass amnesty would be unfair, mass deportation would be both impossible and contrary to our character. yen is pulling

back from its sharpest drop in five years. depreciated tod rapidly. for more we can go to bloomberg's news in hong kong. it is interesting, the one thing the japanese wanted to boost the economy is this weaker yen and here we have the finance minister saying it is a little too far too fast. >> and apparently everyone is fastning, too weak to those are strong words coming from the finance chief today that sent the yen rising for the first time in seven days. rising close to 3/10 of a percent there 117 96 after slumping to 118 yesterday. that became a new seven-year low.

the yen has been weakening to fast over the past month and any major currency changes were not welcome regardless. comments thatilar he has made in the past. you may remember in february he said something along the same lines that sent a yen rising the most in two years. as these this all comes prime minister dissolved parliament today ahead of a staff election. ultimately that would lead to the delay in the second round of sales tax hikes, the prime minister doing some damage on abenomics here. the country entering a recession, the fourth one we have seen since 2008. sense, when we a

look at movement in the yen, is he right? the weekend has been good for some parts but a decline in energy prices, there are winners and losers. definitely you saw the winners this week, exports came out with a boost their of 9.6% which was more than double what economists were expecting. carsw the big winner of ships and steel shipments but overall if you look at the week yen it raises import rices and raises commodities and household costs so the one thing with definitely seen as at small and medium businesses are struggling. one economist tells us they have seen a 148% jump in bankruptcies among fme's. we will see other numbers coming out this next week including the jobless rate, the cpi and retail

sales. parliament goes for dissolution and the elections are on the way. we are only just getting started on "countdown." still to come as a european banking effort gets underway, the head of sovereign ratings will be live at the financial center. director willing also be in the studio, a big two hours coming up today. anything you want to ask you can let us know on twitter. coming up, what does the rise of the right mean to the future of

great britain. the experts weigh in. stick around. ♪ >> another big night for the

u.k. independent party winning its second straight seat today. joining us now is the former advisor to tony blair. oardo,w doyle and ed thank you very much for coming in today. mark reckless said if we can win here we can win across the country, has ukip well and truly arrived? >> it is certainly a good result for them in a bad result for david cameron in terms of having lost a second member of parliament but at the same time i don't think this result tells us too much about the next general election. it is a by election. doorstep andon the

there were people shifting all over the place because they wanted to be one thing or another in terms of sending a message. it is a big result for you kip but at the same time i think it tells us more about david cameron than the next general election. >> tells us about labor systems as well though? 2010 held the seat since and you can see they wanted to park their tank on labor's front lawn and there seems to be evidence from the conservatives but labor as well. no question they are picking up labor supporters which means the challenge is that it has to start taking a leadership position on these issues. waylesson is there is no that labor can try out you kip in terms of the rhetoric. there is no point in trying to get into a race to the bottom. what the public wants to see is a bit of leadership and my belief is the public will respect the politician was

leveling with them on these issues, they disagree with that. >> one of the things that came through, what leadership is is miliband having his own set of problems in one of the things that you say is that the other parties have all gone in the wrong direction and they're all moving toward this immigrant immigration debate when in actual fact they have been led down a blind alley, 10% of the national polls and that the other party should focus on the 90% and not get lost on this immigration issue. certainly he would be beneficial for the conservatives to focus on the economic results of the government and the u.k. is doing considerably well especially compared because of the results of the country we have less than 6% unemployment it would be a

dream for the country in your area, we have a growth rate which has not gone up at all. the best both rate since the 80's, and what you are achieving in terms of economics which is what voter poll research shows. you're focusing or chasing the ukip on immigration. is conservative party divided and so the risk is split. you're also winning more seats because you are cash -- capturing new voters but triggering a possible divide and split within your politics. >> what does it mean for the possibility of further defections in the coming months ahead of the elections? thanu had a win by more 6000 in rochester that could defer defections because there are slightly less than 3000 and

maybe that means there won't be but how do you read the results of what it means? >> that was a prediction made about the margin about whether they needed to add, there is certainly a broader issue beyond rochester and the issue of leadership. cameron on one hand and a neil on the other seem to be on quite shaky ground. they are facing an increasing possibility of a spit -- split and hadher party scotland decided to be independent, a few months ago we were waiting on the result. the result was positive for the prime minister but on the other hand it is also seen not as a great leadership. it shows the voters are not looking at him as the best

person to guide the country. >> where does this leave us for the general election? some people are saying it is incredibly unpredictable before and after this particular election, how much is the fracturing of the two party system, how worried are people about that, does this tap-in to something much deeper, will this be a new era of coalition politics? >> certainly we are seeing the days of the 1950's we had the tory in the labour party winning 90% of the vote, you are also seeing victories on the scale of labor in 1997 being gone. you're talking about parties having a high water mark for the general election and that will definitely change the dynamic. it makes results more unpredictable and it means there is plenty of work for commentators like myself, that

does meanf that it that politics has to be done in a different way and what that means is that the old certainties have gone but also the way in which you just focus on a few marginal seats will not work in the same way come general election time. what we are seeing is really a situation where political parties are going to have to think again. >> the net contribution that here and theke benefits they have been taking but they have not at the message out there, neither party got out to the electorate. >> if you look back to the time when i worked for the labour party in a general election campaign were conservatives wanted to run on immigration. there were all those posters

saying are you thinking what we are thinking, you had tony blair go out and make the case for britain as an open trading nation and why we should be a member of the european union and white immigration was a good thing and the public did not necessarily agree with him it still ended up being a net positive rather than a negative precisely because they had taken that leadership position. what is a mistake for the party at the moment is not to engage in the argument in the same way because you will never out ukip, ukip on this. >> you now run a company that focuses on reputation management. what made you focus and maybe you can tell us if you have, we have seen the figures about how unpopular he is relative to other opposition leaders, what would you advise him to lift his reputation ahead of the election? two things that ed

needs to do, one is to go out more around the country, westminster is part of the problem of how politics is perceived. if you're only seeing the yarbu nature of the prime minister's time on television it does give a bad impression and what you need to do is get into a situation where labor has plenty of decent policy but what it has not done yet is turn that into a story of written, turn that into a sense of what actually is our vision and how do we see britain in five to 10 years, what does that mean in terms of where the jobs of growth and future will come from and he has not managed to come up with that clear narrative to understand britain's place in the world. >> cameron's message in terms of europe, a blind alley? but it is very hard to make the case, let's

think about the results. yesterday it was one of the worst results for the labour party in history. >> thank you both and especially after a long night. matthew doyle the former media chief and eduardo a lecturer in european politics. >> stay tuned to "countdown." break bmp reshapes its investment banking unit, find out who is in and who is out.

>> cyber security experts in the u.k. have been warning the public of a russian hosted website containing thousands of live webcam feeds. we spoke to a security expert to ask what people can do to protect themselves. >> i say to them i am a senior security researcher. russian hackers have created a website and the website contains footage of thousands of devices out there on the internet including cctv cameras, webcams and baby monitors.

software voter and loopholes in order to hack into a device if it has an internet connection but on the other hand it is also true that many devices like this come with the default password. toe is what you can do protect webcams, cctv cameras and any other device, change the default username and password on webcams, brady monitors and any other device -- baby monitors and any other device. if the software is out of date and attackers are able to find loopholes they can use that to force their way in and many computers, laptops, tablets and smartphones come with webcams built-in. it is important you install internet security software on them.

if you're doing anything sensitive put the device in a drawer. >> try not to have nightmares. that was david edinboro speaking to bloomberg. power has cut most of its high-yield bond trading sales team that is according to those with direct knowledge. junk-bond units expanded after the financial crisis to profit from the riskiest corporate debt. rish mall -- richmond world's largest living unit -- they may also consider selling the company. will the candy crush saugatuck continue? fighter of thee

games maker, that is after the break. ♪ >> welcome back to "countdown."

it is friday we got there but did the f x traders get there unscathed? everybody knows it is 6:30 and what will he talk about? dollar-yen. the highest it has been an almost nine months, the finance minister on today in japan and he is saying the rate of decline this is dollar rising yen declining is too far, too fast.

for those who like a little technical indicator, it is oversold. yen is showing signs of being oversold. indicator and the low 34 a. of time says it is oversold and it is. something for friday, a look at europe-indian rupee. there is value in shorting the euro against the rupee. you can see we are just turning a little bit lower and improving growth and inflation expectations. it represents an opportunity to and up in both appreciation carry. >> i am anna edwards in london. the u.k. independence party has won the rochester election.

mark reckless resign from the conservatives to join ukip. all's three major parties saw their share of the vote cut. barack obama has outlined his for 5o defer deportation million undocumented immigrants in the u.s.. visas would be offered to the immigrants which in his words would fix a broken system. that sets him on course for a clash with republicans in congress. overturn a ban on banker notices that are twice the average salary. arguments were rejected by a senior official at the eu court of justice. >> the game is played by hundreds of millions and now king digital has released a

follow-up. helped prove it is more than a one trick pony. hyde toh more, caroline tell us about the new game hundred million. i have never played it ever. >> i haven't but i have watched a lot on it. 495 million, they know how to make these things and candy crush was the killer one. it dominated the top of the charts and actually the candy crush soda saga is already number one because it became available to mobile and tablets yesterday. this is quite an interesting tactic because before they had other bargains, farm hero saga and others, one of them did well

-- >> farm heroes i love it. the branding is tremendous. >> they are very casual games, it is about buying things within the game that is where you drive the revenue. >> the little farm pieces etc.. >> angry birds made by another rival but this is about using instead and cashing in on the candy crush franchise. this is about using the winning formula they hope to drive other ways of playing. people are feeling this is timely is because candy crush has perhaps falling faster than king digital had expected. it is still about 51% of all their bookings but in the third quarter we saw sales down 17%. some were around $500 million but still buffets were down. they really need to rev up excitement about their new games.

that making amit killer game like candy crush saga is hard to do. >> i think it is hard for any game to beat candy crush's august and the smashing success that it had. for us it is about creating a great game that players love in the early indication is that they do. >> he says it is tough but they have to somehow vindicate their $5 billion market value. shares down a third lower than when they listed in march. hopefully the candy crush soda saga where everything can flip around and change gravity will do that. >> where are they expecting the growth? asia,y keep talking about this is where they want to penetrate overall. they promised a network of games and different categories and we know other companies like zynga

are struggling in the same way, but interesting today to us asia is the key. there is certainly potential in countries like india where there are mass-market smartphones with the right price point. currently where the big market but the otherhina territories are also with big potential in the future. noticeable that they recently bought a company based in singapore. it might start today's or to five even casual games but at the moment all of their saga has been very casual games. as i people on the tube commute to work just lining up. where are the next steps? we could see new types of genres and their missing a wealth of other games.

just one killer game is very hard to re-create. it has to become a mass-market product. but they are very interested. i think they are trying to whet the appetite and their promising they will diversify and it will not be just a one trick pony and all about candy crush. interesting that they are dining out on that winning formula. >> join the conversation on twitter, do you play candy crush? are you one of the 100 million followers. tell us the stories you want to hear about. --my secret candy crush >> lover. coming up on the program, what it takes to make new york times's bestseller. we will speak to someone who is done just that. ♪ >> time for today's company

news, the uber executive is

keeping his job and so far he has withstood calls for his firing after suggesting that they higher researchers to pry into journalist's lives. he apologized for his remarks on twitter and uber announced an internet review. electronics may take longer to reach a key profit target than expected and that is according to the ceo. it came after a dip in demand last quarter with companies aiming for a 10% operating margin that says market trends will determine when it gets there. soros has invested $500 million into jame's capital. two bond mutual funds since lowering gross from pimco in

september. >> the weekly look at the business of culture. tell us agents who can how to find manuscripts on the slush file. hins of "the agency." how do you take a first-time author and turn them into a millionaire. >> i wish it was something that had a formula, that would be great and i would have a goldplated car if that was the case. is that therecess are manuscript you read and downable,s is unput and i have to share this with everyone i know and i probably on fivea month and take to 10 new writers a year. >> you read all of those? >> yes i do. >> how long do you give it? >> you give it as long as you

need to discover whether or not -- >> what is your role within this? once you have read the manuscript and you love it and are telling your friends about it, what happens next? >> an agent is the middleman between the author and publisher so my role is to edit the manuscript. then submit it to publishers in the u.k. or u.s. and around the world and negotiate their contract to get the rights and then manage the process. look youmanuscript, submitted is it taken on or not? what is the percentage? >> my percentage is over 80% which is pretty good, it is hard to get for a literary agent that it is never guaranteed when we take someone on how well it will perform. you can really believe in something but not find a home

for it. >> a great number of people self publish, the revolution, eva lucian, -- evolution. no more disruption. industry, whatg do you bring to the table over and above self-publishing? how do you trump the revolution? as long asauthors they are creating content there will be agents and my role is to contact publishing houses around the world and traditional publishing, the key thing i have is distribution. if you can self publish, you can get a book on amazon but you are not going to get it into waterstone. has nots and mortar's gone away, when you walk into waterstone's and my area it is a very important part of the whole thing. >> hugely and i think

traditional publishing is now learning that we have to capitalize on our difference that waterstone is another independent bookshop doing innovative edge it'll festivals and they are having people come in and talk. festivalsive digital and they are having people come in and talk. people have a chance to meet the author and ask them questions which you cannot replicate online. >> what is the focus, you touched on it manus in terms of creating attractive displays and some of your books been the center of a displays on bookshelves which i'm guessing helps sell more, how is the effect on that strategy versus creating a twitter storm? >> it is shifting all the time and i think we still are really learning about what to do with social media. irobot working in marketing and

people would say we need to make this go viral but no one knew what that meant. >> it is luck. >> i think you're quite right but people are learning they can try things out online in a way that they can't with more extensive print media. -- expensive print media. >> look at amazon and they have come up against the publishing settled theirave differences now it seems, what is the role of amazon going forward? role inn have a huge with some folks they really dominate the market share but there are other bets still created by the high street at christmas amazon will be shifting a huge amount of quantities but they will be heavily discounted in a way that you would not get if shopping on the high street. i don't think it tends to be either/or, more people who tend

to shop on high street will shop and amazon or vice versa i do not think it is high street versus online. >> what percentage of authors make a decent living? there are always these numbers bandied around especially when jk rolling is mentioned, is there a stat you can point out? >> is that your benchmark for a decent living mark? [laughter] >> from where she started to where she is today, she is a benchmark that i could in dreamland do that. obviously it is unlikely but is there a figure you can pluck? what percentage make a good living? >> i don't think there is because everyone's definition is different i can tell you all my authors make a very good living. >> i have jesse burton whose novel "the miniaturist" and james oswald with his crime

series as well as being a livestock farmer. >> what is the trend? what are we buying at the moment? harry potter is toast. what are the big trends? >> it would be amazing if we could predict them but we never know. the miniaturist is set in amsterdam and the mid-1600s about someone constructs a miniature dollhouse. i do think anyone suspected it would take off in the way that it has and that sold and 32 languages around the world are in a bestseller. sometimes something just catches. >> how many lines in before you are excited? i was about one page in. >> these two will be handing you a one page, she has a novel and he has -- >> and him will you read any

menu script from anyone? another 600 pages coming your way. literary agent at the agency . countdown andt on will be looking at the work of the oscar-winning film director .ike nichols ♪ >> beatles fans, listen closely

favorite road" is your album you made it to get to another auction house. the full set of photos from the cover shoots are up for grabs. >> the opening track "come together" is as iconic as the album cover itself and on august 12, 2014 abbey road remains there best-selling album. outside the legendary music studio the band recorded at. in 10 minutes he took six photos of the fab four and a fifth of those shots would become the album cover.

outtakes in the final cover shot will be available at auction. it is believed to be the first time of the signed and numbered photos has ever been offered. this memorabilia is expected to sell up to $100,000. >> any idea how many tourists have walked across that strip of road? i used to live not far from there and the number of angry drivers i saw as tourists would pose for photos. >> there is a song on there called golden slumber which is one of my favorites of all time. my life is one big slumber. listen to that this morning. , -- in and london london, let's's for a moment and look at the papers. pause for a moment and

look at the papers. >> the mayor of london, his name is a doris johnson, pay her taxes. he was born in new york and lives in the united kingdom and holds a u.s. passport and when you are a u.s. citizen you must pay taxes. he's there to promote his book on winston churchill and the tax people are chasing after him. asked why appy, british politician would keep the u.s. passport he responded it is difficult to give up. american passport they gave them away to irish people when i was young. >> let's move onto an interesting one, this is in "the guardian." which is real and which is an advert? is ais is art and this

shell advert. a new york-based artist took his red ball project around the ound to many cities over the last few years and he called it a temporary sculptural intervention. >> it looks like a giant gun. red allts this massive and fairly odd places and this apparently is the art and now shell has introduced a new advertising campaign which also uses red balls and he is very angry for using this red ball because he thinks it is stealing his idea. news yesterday, mike nichols the hollywood director who directed the graduate, you will recognize probably one of the most famous stills, legs and a very young dustin hoffman. he won an oscar, mike nichols,

for his first film "who's afraid of virginia woolf?" i had forgotten how many amazing films he had directed, "catch-22" "heartburn" "working girl" "birdcage" and "charlie wilson's war" was his last one. he is one of only 12 people to win all four big entertainment awards in the u.s., and emmy, a grammy, and oscar, and a tony. the lady in that picture you saw there is one of the greatest american new bankers there. a bit ofof culture and boris and a bit of the beatles. you could not ask for more. >> golden slumber. go to your twitter account and find out whatever you like. "countdown" continues in the

next hour. do they have a plan b? we will put that question in a little more detail. stay with the countdown team for the next hour. ♪ >> rochester rocks british

politics and the u.k. independence party wins a second seat in parliament. >> if we can win here we can win across the country. if you vote ukip, you get ukip. >> obama outlines his plan to fix immigration and allow immigrants to stay in the u.s.. >> are we a nation that believes in the cruelty of ripping children from their parents arms or do we value family and work to keep them together. ministers finance

speak in the yen rises for the first time in seven days. >> welcome to "countdown." >> also coming up on the show, can candy cane crush again -- candy king crush again? >> it is very hard for any game to try to beat candy crash based on the success that it has. players are taking a great game that players love and i think the early indication is they do love it. >> voters have returned a second u.k. independence party candidate to parliament. rochester was assumed to be a safe conservative seat but mark reckless accident conservatives

for a party that wants to take the u.k. out of the eu. >> reckless won the seat with a majority of just under 3000 votes pushing the conservatives to second place, it was a bad night for all the three major parties who saw their share of the votes slashed. marke winning candidate reckless dedicated his victory to the voters of rochester, his victory speech was aimed at a wider audience of potential u.k. voters right across the country. >> i wish i had the words to express how grateful i am, this is your victory. this, savor it, think of rochester was the stew hundred 71st most winnable seat, if we can win here we can win across the country. ukip. vote ukip, you get >> david cameron has not yet

given his reaction to the result. the chairman of the conservative party said the result was quote disappointing. ukip leader would be speaking to us live on the program. >> let's change directions a little bit, a recent lyrical shift but what does that mean -- a recent political shift, but what does that mean for the market. great to have you with us this morning, there is a wonderful line on the bloomberg story the siege of rochester. in 1215 at lasted 50 days we campaigning,ays of do you see a siege on u.k. assets as we run to the election? re: pricing assets correctly -- are we pricing assets correctly? buy think this is a

election and i don't think it was a total surprise. we should look at the potential outcome next year and what the candidate or the empty elect ct just said,mp-ele you can swing the whole nation, that is probably a tall order. i don't think we should take it that the you cap will be running the next government, but it does talk about the u.k. future in the eu and if we have a referendum after the next election the conservative party and prime minister cameron have promised that it is quite an open outcome. risks riseay those as we go to the election and more and more people are saying, the voting base here and the u.k. throws into the spectrum a grand coalition and that really puts the heat in terms of the

u.k. participation in europe, where do you benchmark that risk. -- risk? >> what we see across europe and the u.k.'s exception to this and in deed a great rise in nontraditional parties and populist parties and protest parties which express in a powerful way the discontent of larger and larger proportions. this didn't come out of the blue, the european elections and the national elections which was a large number of countries in recent years, all of this makes policy applicability of difficult. we the u.k. specifically think that a conservative led government probably has no choice but sticking to its word that it would be a referendum

and depending on what cameron can bring home from european isotiations enter this written, he would be hard-pressed to wholeheartedly campaign in favor of remaining inside, so this is really difficult to predict, we think the eu and the other way around this with the detrimental to the british economic prospects, because it leave the u.k. has greatly benefited from u.k. membership i track and cash by attracting a lot of membership world.ross the as you say those risks rise. the impact on the credit is regretted a business. if we have the prospect of this

referendum does that change the rating you might consider in the interim. -- interim period. >> as i just said we think the membership of the eu is an integral part of our assessment and of britain and other eu members. if written were to leave it depends on the circumstances and it would depend on what comes afterward. we would expect some sort of relationship between britain and the eu even if the referendum would go toward an exit -- brexit. the remaining eu would be important to assess what the economic impact would be but it would be a difficult negotiation to say the least. i would not stand here and exclude this categorically and say it would not affect the credit of the eu.

talkt's shift gears and about europe and where you're standing right now, you say the threat of recession is a wake-up ecb, thea risk for the germans or governments in europe and i used three and a very specific in creating three categories. >> i think it is a wake-up call for everyone and we of been warning of the growth outlook for quite some time before so the economy slowed in the middle and the one thing that characterizes and unites many of the member states and i'm not only referring to government debt but private sector debt as well, so well those nations in the public and private sector what you usually see and what you should expect is very low to mystic demand and very low growth and therefore the slowdown that we are seeing

right now is unsurprising, this is interesting only so far because the really interesting question is what is going to be done now and we need more than just one simple measure from the ecb upon which many holes are now pinned cannot one handedly create growth across the eurozone and monetary policy cannot do this, it can stabilize a condom create a window of opportunity to introduce reforms that are required to create more jobs and investment and productivity and growth in the future but those reforms are actually not the mandate of the ecb because they are things like tax reform, labor market reform and increase competition and on not all these reforms are the homework list of the governments, and not of the german government. suppose it would be remiss

to not extract upon you that the market is clamoring for quantitative easing that the risk is this when the u.s. did it it was at 4%, will it matter? spain is able to borrow less expensively than the united states of america and the argument would be that markets have moved so far so fast that would they achieve anything in >> -- economy?y cheaper cannot borrow than the u.s. because they are borrowing different currencies. asides a little detail, from that if you put your finger on the right spot how powerful is qe going to be? as i said earlier we think there is too much debt in household

balance sheets so whatever the conditions of the banking system will be there will not be that much new demand so the real transmission is probably stuttering at best so how qe can work usually is through what economists refer to as the portfolio affect that investors who have been selling those bonds that the ecb would be buying are looking for new homes for the investable fund and some of them would go to the real economy and others will probably go to efforts abroad which would bring the euro down that of course will help over inflationary outlook but also for competitiveness and a growth outlook for peripheral sovereigns among others but really the eurozone as a whole but much of it really is probably also psychological, the market as you say expects that qe will happen and for that

reason alone it probably will happen but an important to watch behow unified will the ecb behind this decision, we had a demonstration of unity two weeks ago but this is sort of on abstract terms increasing the balance sheet of the ecb, when it comes to the nitty-gritty, quite likely some of the old risks might be coming up again -- that is turn different from the fed and the bank of england and japan were you don't have to have internal debate so publicly transmitted through the airwaves, but in the ecb system what you would a potentially have is different governors contradicting each other or having different interpretations of what is going on and that intentionally could have an effect that would dampen

the confidence that would be created by producing qe because at the same time it would display a lack of unity among the decision-makers. meu of absolutely crushed because i quoted bloomberg about spain and the u.s., i will take the admonishment on the chin, i want to know about how much discussion you have had about default in russia and does it play? russia with negative outlooks it is with investment grade so we expressed with that rating that we don't think that a default of the russian federation is imminent or likely in the immediate term. >> thank you for joining us this morning, the head of sovereign ratings, -- >> he said you put your finger on an important matter which you

did. well done. >> you can join the conversation on twitter. a lot of fascinating comments during the interview. go to our handles if you want a recap of what he was saying. >> qe probably is going to happen he told manis it is important to watch how unified the ecb is behind it. that is what morris told @ma nnuscranny. well done. find out who is in and who is out. ♪ >> welcome back to "countdown."

>> fixing a broken system, that is how president obama describes his move to about 5 million undocumented immigrants in the and, he outlined his plans offered visas to millions of immigrants based on their family ties. a showdown with republicans in congress. -- opposingopposing to streamline the visa process and the biggest category of

people affected a 4.1 million are those with been in the u.s. for more than five years and have children who are u.s. citizens or legal permanent residents. the move would not grant citizenship or the right to stay to undocumented immigrants but it means they would not be deported. >> some of the critics of this action call it amnesty. well, it is not. amnesty is the immigration system we have today, millions of people who live here without paying taxes or playing by the rules let politicians use the issue to scare people and whip up votes at election time, that is the real amnesty, leaving the system the way it is. mass amnesty would be unfair, mass deportation would be both impossible and contrary to our character. >> the japanese yen is pulling back its sharpest five-week truck and almost 20 years.

the japanese prime minister said the currency had depreciated too rapidly. we can go now to if on in hong kong -- yvonne in hong kong. the question is, will it last? >> when the man talks you listen, certainly not the first time he has done this. you may remember back in february when aso said something along the same lines and that sent the yen going up the most in two years. we are starting to see a little bit more movement in seven days, close to one third percent there. compare that to the slump we saw at 118 yesterday and that was a new seven-year low. any big changes in the currency regardless up or down were not

welcome but they dissolved parliament today which ahead of election would delay that second round of tax hikes coming up presumably in the next 18 months. we are talking about the prime minister doing damage control after we saw disappointing numbers the economy entered into a recession, the fourth with seen since 2008. since fourth we have seen 2008. party u.k. independence has won its second seat in parliament after a bad night for the three main parties in britain. we are joined now by the leader, nigel farage. thank you for joining us. with this victory under your belt could you outline four of your ambitions for the general election in may. what would define success? >> this is a seat that the prime minister and other said we

haven't got a cat's chance in hell of winning but we wanted well and this seat was number 271 on our targets and the truth of it is as people can see now that if you vote you kip you get -- if you vote ukip, you get ukip. i challenge anybody who comes in your program and give you a prediction for next year election is whistling in the wind. nobody has a clue. it is up into the air into complete uncertainty so to answer your question, i don't know but whatever our potential was for winning the seat next year, last night's result double-dip. the situationin that makes this possible, will you go into a coalition after a general election? >> that is not what i'm interested in doing, my interest is if we hold the balance of power is to make sure the andish people get a free

fair referendum so we can decide if we govern our country or not. there are many ways of doing that short of going into a full coalition. >> how many defectors are you predicting from the conservative party or do you know that summer coming? >> i don't predict anything, you guys do the predictions. left the men have conservative party and joined us and had the courage to put their next on the line -- to put their neck's on the line, the kind of behavior haven't seen in british politics for half a century and i would be very surprised if there weren't more people to join us between now and may the seventh of next year. numbers, i don't know. >> some satyr there could be six more, if we imagine we are in a pub and nobody is listening, could you give me a clue by cheering at any of them.

john baron, mark prichard, george eustis, any of those? >> it is a lovely attempt by you and brilliantly done but you are drawing a complete link from me, if i was in negotiations with those names the last thing i would do is tell anybody. >> i'm disappointed nigel. [laughter] >> you say you want to deliver what your voters want and a really interesting poll earlier this week suggested that 68% of ukip voters want to turn the clock back by 30 years, you cannot do that so what are you going to be able to deliver? >> how about returning power to the democracy to the nation that developed it, invented it and sold it to the rest of the world? if people think that is turning the clock back, i'm sorry but good values survive or sentries. what our political club has done is they have given away the

ability to control our country, we want it back, we demand it back and we will get it back. >> businesses might not feel so positive about that change, we are spoken to eight-10 members of the cdi who said that should stay in the eu, you have been pretty critical at the sum of your members, what is the attitude? >> remind me, is this the same cpi that said we should join the euro? thank goodness we didn't listen to them then. this country is now the biggest export market in the world for the eurozone, one in three cars on our roads is manufactured in germany and wherever i go i see people tricking wine and champagne and goodness knows what else. they need us more than we need them and we would go on trading and cooperating but not be subject to be governed by law made by bureaucrats in brussels. i know that some giant multinationals love the eu and

love the regular infrastructure. it will be small to medium cup edition. >> some talk about free trade and free movement of capital if that were to go it would be detrimental, mark reckless is the nonexecutive chairman it bc and says we have broadband in the u.k. because of italy because they have done that work and if it weren't for them we would not have that. do you acknowledge that there are economic benefits? i am rarely heard such stupidity and all my life, we need written -- we need people to come to britain to bring trade skills but we can more than adequately cope to that with work permits just as america and 190 other countries in the world do. eu is really part of the world left today that advocates the total free movement of labor between rich and poor countries, is complete madness, and

outdated model and it does not work. >> if anybody is listening to this interview and thinking i was going to invest in the u.k. but now i might not because of political risk is there a message you would give them? >> i would say look at the ensign young survey which shows that in north america in the far east two out of three investment company said of britain was out of the eu free of the regulatory burden they may well invest more money still. >> nigel, thank you very much. the leader of the u.k. independent party, his party came in at victory in that key election getting their second mender of -- member of parliament. economic benefits from immigrants i have rarely heard so much stupidity in my whole life, that eu needs us and the headline of headlines, i would be very surprised if there were not more defections from the conservative party. >> he wouldn't play that game.

>> we will talk candy crash after the break. well done in that interview. well done. ♪ . .

>> welcome back to "countdown." in theriday, 7:30 morning. we survived another week of trading. have the dollar yen traders survived? you can see dollar-yen is beginning to just move. you could see the yen strengthened today. overall, a little bit of a reverse. aso, the finance minister,

said the rate of decline in the yen has been too far, too fast read -- too fast. the fiscalcomplete reform. that is the message from the finance minister. according to the technical indicators, relative strength. is dollar-yen over the last one year. we will go slightly left-field. goldman sachs this morning, the euro-indian rupee. goldman sachs says there is value in shorting the euro against the indian rupee because it is getting stronger. a high-yield emerging market currency. modi will be happy that goldman sachs wrote a nice note. they said that it introduces an opportunity to pick up appreciation and carry. there you go.

trait for the day. -- trade for the day. >> the u.k. independence party has won the election. he was elected to parliament with a majority of just under 3000 votes. all three major parties saw their share of the vote cut, with the liberal democrats having just 349 votes. president obama has outlined his -- visas would be offered to immigrants based on family ties. according to his words, it would fix a broken system. his words set him on course with a -- for a clash with republicans in congress. to abandoning his bid overturn a european union ban on bank bonuses. says he would not spend taxpayers money pursuing a legal challenge on bonuses. written documents were rejected

by a senior official at the eu court of justice. these games are played by hundreds of millions of people. king digital, the maker of releasedush saga," has a follow-up to its hugely-successful franchise. here with more is caroline hyde. tell us about this game, played by hundreds of millions. many hundreds. >> on average, almost 500 million people. that is more than the entire of the united states. they are dining out on the "candy crush" brand. it has been a phenomenal success so far. it is one of the top-grossing games since launching november 2012. the equivalent to 71 times the world population, games played.

over $1 billion on these sorts of games. they have released a sister title. apparently, you add a bit of soda. it is still a match 3 game. and they are marketing this heart. -- hard. they had a soda fountain display by a bridge in london. and a giant illuminated replica bear, a 70-foot high candy . it has gone all out. >> where is this going to be? where are they expecting this to take off? what isok at asia -- interesting, this is coming at just the right time. it has already become -- "candy theh saga" is already number one game downloaded on the app store. on facebookplaying

since october. they have got to prove that they can do more than just one game. they have released other sagas. been prettyl successful, but not nearly as successful as "candy crush," which is 51% of the money they are making on apps. we are seeing profit down 38%. now they will have a portfolio of games. of games yet to be launched. it is about building a network of games. we still have a lot of games coming out to market next year. >> they have got to start vindicating the $5 billion market value. provinge got to start they can do a whole array of

categories. stats, but who spends the most on these games? >> it is all about asia. capture the growth. they say india is an area of growth. then it is japan, korea, china. a key for them is you cannot localize these games. is still a big potential in countries like india, where they are becoming a massive market for smartphones. all of those territories are interesting for us. currently, what the big market south korearoven is and china. other territories are also big potential in the future. >> really interesting. they recently bought a company in singapore. that might be a way to build inroads into asia. keeping it global, but making

sure they do not suddenly have christmas-themed games. you have got to be sophisticated in the way that you make global games. the purchase that they have made of a mobile development -- developer in singapore is not about actual gaming. you might get into sophisticated games. maybe even virtual reality in the future. >> thank you very much. it is 7:37 here in london. up by 8%. brewer they started the second half of the year well. shares have been hit by a change consumers tolowing shop around for the best deal on beer. >> this may be bound to get cheaper. the biggest shakeup of britain's pub industry in centuries. situation, the

13,000 tenants are tied to the company that owns the pub providing them with their drinks. they do not have the ability to assess the cost at with -- at which they are supplied. forome are paid premium longer. -- for lager. now they will shop around for the best beer dealers. >> this will revitalize part of the pub industry. actually provide a savings for people using pubs. >> the change has not gone down well with the big brewers. they claim it could lead to the , iture of 1400 stand is either glass half full or glass half empty. >> that was tom mckenzie

reporting there. coming up on "countdown" -- >> it is all about draghi. our next guest says what is going to pass the ecb to buy stocks or gold? think about that. andrew joins us after the break. stick around for that in two minutes. ♪

-- is itor today's time to buy oil stocks? the fund manager at dca asset ,anagement told us oil stocks discounting armageddon, we can take that as a buy recommendation. i thought we would look at the european oil and gas sector. this is an industry group within the stoxx 600. let's see how they fared over the course of 2014. it has fallen by roughly 6%. that is the white line. you can ignore the other lines for the time being. crude is down by 28%. the oil and gas sector is the

second worst-performing index in the stoxx 600 after the retail index. the peak was june of 2004. since then, the index has fallen by 17%. down as much lows, as 22%. on the oil33 stocks and gas index, only nine have risen this year. one of the best ones is vested this -- vestas wind systems. ones one many strange these indices, but you get the idea. the oil and gas sector is trading lower this year. the worst performer is afren, down some 58%. on a valuation basis, the index is trading at almost 12 times estimated earnings. what the stoxx 600 is

trading at. the valuation is more expensive than its five-year average of 10.5 times. of 11's 10-year average times. so it is more expensive than its longtime average. what do the charts tell us? the 50-day moving average, green moving average. when that crosses that, it is called a death cross. it is a very bearish signal. it happened on october 8. the price is below both the 50-day and the 200-day. and we have had a death cross that is a bearish signal. our stocks oversold though? come back. where are you? there you go. there you go. death cross. that was a weird sign, wasn't it?

do you see this little chart at the bottom? anything below 30 means they are oversold. they are not oversold anymore. 49 right now. they were oversold from october 7 two october 17. so they are not oversold. there you go. we started with him. we will end with it. discounting armageddon. >> the fascination with the death ross. >> usually gets a death cross in. we are 15 minutes away from the european market open. let's bring in our next guest. it is andrew, live in the studio with us from pimco, the head of portfolio management in germany. let's hope we do not have a replica moment with yourself. .o death crosses maybe in bonds. by election ins

the u.k. risk is rising. how do you look at sterling assets? you and i had a conversation about it before. what about guilds, sterling, and ?he risk atmosphere in the u.k. >> if you link it to the elections and the risk that the u.k. might decide to exit the european union, i would share some of those concerns. there could be some relocation investment out of the u.k. i would expect a weaker sterling if they were to go for the door, for the exit. the rate hike expectations, where do you see the u.k. heading around this election? there was debate about whether it would come before. how far out is it now? thatu get the impression

the two central banks that did start did not get very far. points -- they started at least, but it went all the way up and all the way down. at the end of the day, it is going to depend on the data. this time around, i think the fed will err on the side of being absolutely sure their economy can withstand it read the risk they take is if they do not get it done before the cycle , it will slow down again. >> was in that the communication from yellen? tolerate a little bit more latitude in terms of momentum in the economy and then hike. >> sure. that is a good way to go about it. if it works out that way, that

would ensure that the economy withstand the rate hikes. but look at the rest of the world from the perspective of america. japan is back in recession. china is slowing down. the eurozone is not exactly a powerhouse of growth. where should the growth come from? the big surprise next year would awaye fed gets one hike and the u.s. economy starts slowing down by itself. >> how to avoid 2004. know from, as we now the minutes, how do we communicate how fast rates will be raised? how does the fed do that to avoid 2004, which many say paved the way to the financial crisis many years later? >> we have been saying that the neutral fed weight -- rate over

the cycle will have to be a lot lower. lowernk 2% nominal, a lot than what they have in their medium-term predictions. i think what the fed will have to do is confront that issue. to what level can they actually hike the rates and what level can the economy withstand, over the long run, when we look at the overhang, the demographics, and productivity, which is flatlining? the market is heading down for that destination level of interest rates. i think the fed has done that a little bit with its last forecast. it has brought it down to like 3.875.

tot is what they have communicate on. >> andrew stays with us after the break. many more thoughts on europe when we return. stay with "countdown." ♪

>> andrew is here, pimco head of

portfolio management in germany. he is in town. good to see you. curve, down the risk what type of assets could the ecb buy? gold, possibly? er said that in his speech. there is obviously tension within the governing council about buying government bonds. the issues that you talked about before. it is not my base case, but stocks and gold could be compromised. >> that is rather radical. >> does that mean less risky for the ecb because of the prospects involved? >> the risk, from their

perspective, is not default or credit risk, but moral hazard risk. draghi andche and a certainsaid to minister down in rome. many things on that letter have not been done. they have basically wasted three years. >> if europe has wasted three years, would qe make a bit of difference because we are already priced in? 4%, here we. was at are, very annoyed. >> it probably will not make a great difference. it will to the currency, but it will need monetary policy by itself just by time. it needs the governments to do their reforms and they will extraly need a bit of

help from the fiscal side as well. just let those budget deficits run a bit more. >> give us an idea of it perfect bond portfolio for the time. what should we be holding? what should we be buying? look at the whole bond spectrum. unfortunately, there is not much interest rates in the box of christmas presents. indicating it is going to do more, there will be some exposure to the southern european countries in that box. go globally, there are some idiosyncratic markets and emerging markets like russia ice the risks. beyond that, there is not much in fixed income. >> thank you so much for joining us this morning. andrew, pimco head of portfolio management in germany. "on the move" is up next. jon ferro has that show.

mario draghi is just about to speak in frankfurt. we are showing you live pictures of mario draghi in frankfurt, getting ready to deliver that speech. what clues will he give us? have a good weekend, everyone, when we get there. ♪

>> welcome back to "on the move ." moments away from the start of european trading of easy friday to you all. the main street takes a beating, ukip takes a second seat in parliament. tellsader nigel farage bloomberg that next year past general election is completely uncertain. because of what you wish for, the japanese yen had a seven-year low and the finance ministers has changes are not welcome and the currency has weakened too fast.

bloomberg chief and finance advisor speak and this minute -- this morning any minute now mario draghi speaks. as we wrap up the week check out the movement in the futures markets. 0.6%, 36es higher up i points higher and if you look at the week another week of gains and to manus cranny that would make it a fifth week of gains. greath had two conversations on countdown which i think encapsulates the top news flow. farage. and is a due to u.k. risk the party, the risk for the u.k. is the treasury in a not a kingdom at 2.09 percent but risk would rise and that is a big issue, the united