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tv   On the Move  Bloomberg  November 25, 2014 3:00am-4:01am EST

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later in the hour. riots on the streets of ferguson. chaos reigns and ferguson as a grand jury does not indict a white police officer who shot blacklled an unarmed teenager. president obama appeals for calm as tempers flare. european markets of the opening. let's check with caroline hyde, who has details. >> we are going to keep a close eye on markets. we have got a flurry of economic data, and chances are we could take a pause for breath if you are looking at the stock market. flat on the ftse 100. suddenly a little pause for breath after we hit a two-month high? theant more evidence economic indicators are on track. whether they are being supported as well. we got very excited on friday
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when mario draghi was hinting at quantitative easing, saying he will revive inflation as fast as possible. he was saying he was not about to make a hasty decision to add more stimulus that the ecb. yet they're also saying the expanding bond purchases to government debt would face legal hurdles. once again the voice of concern coming from germany. bank headthe central in austria saying a steady hand ecbhat you need in terms of policy. that is why we are likely to see it a sickly flat across the board when you are looking at europe. so much data. we get gdp figures. manufacturing as well. also the second estimate in terms of the third-quarter gdp is coming. bit of a downward
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revision on the trade deficit likely to happen? morningata later this with the views on what the biggest economies are set to do. we could see new revisions. >> let's dig into some stocks. i want to get into the big movers and shakers. ing just climbing higher by 7/10 of a percent. a fascinating trend. we heard it from lawyers. now we hear it from ing. this is about the move to digital disrupting the amount of employees they need. ing is cutting 1700 jobs. there is news they could be getting close to selling their particular unit. the german drugmaker is discussing this with credit suisse. it could be worth 2.5 billion dollars. kingfisher down 1.4%. if we wanted a birds eye perspective on how the various
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economies in europe are doing, take no further look than kingfisher. in france as well. torrid time. a we are seeing sales declined because the property markets are down. they are saying taxes are higher. all of this is putting up spending and property and upgrading houses. looking much rosier in the u.k.. we saw sales increase. why on earth is russia so strong? sales are beating their estimate in russia as well. >> that is how the markets are shaping up this morning. what's get straight to those comments from the executive -- let's get straight to the executive orton member. bloomberg asked about that executive board member. it.mberg asked about >> we have to look at the data
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around us, and we have to discuss thoroughly possible options, in particular when it comes to assets. an agreement there might be situations where we have to do more. >> joining us for those comments the cohead ofs, global macro and market research at goldman sachs. thank you for coming to talk to us. he is saying the ecb is not going to be in any rush. how do you interpret the comments we have had from the ecb? what is the goldman sachs view of where the ecb goes next? do we get full-blown quantitative easing in december? asked december is unlikely. i think the novelty -- >> december is unlikely. i think the novelty is this pursuit of a bigger balance sheet. mario draghi last friday why aned the reasons
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bigger balance sheet at this stage is important. essentially to get asset prices up and the euro down. thatnk people take from that government bond purchases are going to be more likely if the ecb were to step up this pace of ellen sheet increase in coming quarters. >> do you think it is a question of timing in terms of taking turning that qe program into one where they are actually buying sovereign bonds? if it does, is it going to be the right move, with yields as low as they are? can qe have the right effect? >> i think it would have the right effect. it offers a lot of complications. there are technical ones. we heard the legal challenges. bunch, thedeterrent
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us government bonds, across eu states. overall it would get spreads lower, and that should have an impact on the real economy. i don't think they are on the preset course. i think it will be a matter of how the core economies fair, whether they are strong enough to lift the whole euro area up and start generating more inflation. >> we are going to get another reading on inflation. we are seeing the ecb during what they are doing on the monetary policy side. mario draghi continues to make a cannot work alone. it needs the government to take action. where do you see a for confidence? do you see that move forward? >> we are trying to explore this idea that mario draghi himself has laid out, that countries doing reforms and perhaps in a coordinated fashion could also
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have more leeway on their countercyclical fiscal stance. alsobly that could encourage countries with bigger , which has called for germany to increase its own fiscal spending or we asked -- acqu ce two-baggers -- to bigger spending. i think the ecb stands ready to fiscalover, should this expansion put upward pressure on .ields i think they would be more than willing to purchase government securities at that stage. >> francisco is going to be with us as we had to break. we are also watching the ongoing
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events in the united states. you are looking at the live shot in the streets of ferguson, missouri. protesters are taking to this treats after a grand jury did not -- to the streets after a grand jury did not indict the police officer who shot an unarmed black teen. ♪
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>> welcome back. this is "on the move." let's bring you back into --
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bring back into the country the macro research at goldman sachs. are still talking about a broadening recovery, which is of interest. ellis how that lays into what -- tell us how that plays into what you think the fed is going to do. >> we have them lifting off the fed funds in september. that will be anticipated by operations to start trading elasticity oftest interest rates to liquidity. very interesting from a technical perspective. the bank of england. we have two cycles ahead of the and to central banks slowly responding to the change of circumstances. central banks slowly
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responding to the change of circumstances. >> are they affected by whether a slowinue to see inflationary theme through the markets? surely allows it more leeway. we see that happen with the bank of england's anticipated first hike. particularly for the central banks that have a strict inflation targeting made does create a dilemma. i think the market is probably growthking the implications of lower oil prices because probably more than interest rate stimulus it is percolating to the real economy. that could represent a bonanza going forward. i think this aspect is important. inflation we have seen when oil prices and monetary prices
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are very high, we see that pass to core inflation. it will be interesting to see if this effect is symmetrical. now that energy prices are low if service prices maintain going forward. >> in terms of this new oil order, where are you playing that in terms of an investment scene. you mentioned it could be good for growth. i am guessing it is good for those countries that import. are you making investment plays into those countries as a result of the lower oil price? >> the pressure is always to try to figure out what is prized and what could change. we talked about the global economy, this artifact the u.s. is going to still carry the weight of growth -- despite the fact the u.s. is going to carry the weight of growth in 2014. the policy stimulus
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could generate interesting returns. on the oil question we are looking at the secondary affects cts of lower -- effe oil prices. the obvious distinction to make is between importers and exporters. there are less obvious ones. for instance, countries that have low inflation may be tied to the eurozone, and they may actually keep prices more economical and grow faster in coming years. >> you mentioned a little growth coming from the eurozone. see one you expecting to the eurozone? is that going to be the key driver of a little bit of growth in the eurozone? >> the numbers are not spectacular. to what wery similar are likely to get later today. is .9 or 1.1, it is not going to be a big deal, but
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i think it is around the uniformity across the block, so it is interesting to see -- we have italy growing much less than its regional peers. that would be an interesting dynamic to see playing out, what the government does and what the central bank response, -- responds. response, i think there is very little growth or very little appetite in the eurozone complex. think the returns are interesting this year. >> you think the dollar is going to continue to climb, if you are expecting the fed to hike and the euro to be weaker. what else are you going to see that should shape 2015 for investors?
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asked the dollar strength is thematic for us. -- >> thento this dollar strength is thematic for us. it plays into this theme. we call it the passage of the baton. we think the boj will succeed in getting the yen down and the ecb may be able to push the euro below what we deem to be the fair value, the long-term fair value, which is around 1.20. we have around 1.15, and i think that is the interplay of the fed and the ecb during expansion. >> are we looking at the low return in 2015 and beyond? lookunds be spiriting to ahead and think that way. is that the future and for how long? >> if you think about it, cash prized currently through
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yield negative returns after inflation for five years in the u.s. and for 10 years in the euro area. having other assets controlling for volatility return much more is going to be difficult unless we have a steep corruption -- correction. we are expecting modest single-digit returns in the low volatility context. that's ok. we will have to look for opportunities as they come along. >> inc. you very much for joining us. very much for joining us. 17 minutes past eight in london. it's check in on one of the stocks on the move this morning. that is kingfisher. the stock is trading lower after profits disappointed investors. we will bring you the details when we return.
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>> welcome back. we will bring you up to speed with some companies on the move this morning. ing will cut 1700 jobs over the next three years. the company says it lands to simplify and automate -- plans to simplify and automate its systems. will take a pretax redundancy revision of 320 million euros in the fourth quarter. although trust will make a 400
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million euro provision that will weigh on fourth quarter profit. will make a 400 million euro provision that will weigh on the fourth quarter profit. the company says they see many uncertainties surrounding the investigation. to twitter cfo slipped plans buy a company by accidentally tweeting about it. the message was posted on the service before being deleted. a spokesman confirmed he was trying to send a message privately. bloomberg has been speaking to the twitter cofounder, who says inhas complete faith costello possibility to lead the company in the future. >> this is a company of enduring value. i know wall street things quarterly and everything is hyper short cycles, but you really got to think about these things decade out in order to think correctly, so no concern
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here. i have complete faith in him as a leader. >> the divergence in economic towth in the u.k. compared the rest of europe can be seen in the largest home improvement retailer, kingfisher. here with more is caroline hyde. kingfisherabout how is performing. they had a tough time in france. torrid time. we are seeing sales down 4%. they list the catalog of reasons as to why france is looking so poor right now. it is all about home improvement , and the market is not very good there. we consumer confidence. they blame higher taxes on francois hollande. and of poor construction market.
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.ll of these factors add up france is bleeding. poland, china, also not performing well. clearly this is an area that is not managing to whether the the economiceather turmoil well. but let's talk about the u.k. a better performance coming through in the united kingdom. >> we are seeing an english man -- handing over the reins to a french woman. it will be interesting to see if she can navigate france that much better. u.k. s done well in the sales are up. because of the better economy and housing market. the economy is more buoyant. the housing market is very good. they own a brand which is focused on tradesmen in particular.
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sales there are down 13%. everyone is savvy. , russia actor for you particularly strong market. profit not looking that good because of the currency. i thought that was interesting. >> it is interesting. i need to put up a curtain rail, so it reminds me. let's talk about another business being affected by the strength of the u.k. economy. they are benefiting as well. >> we have to remind ourselves what a stellar year it has been for housing. yes, we see a downpour -- downturn. ,e have seen house prices down but overall they are up 16% in london, up 8% around the rest of the world. zoopla has been
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downing -- dining out. they say a record audience. he have half a billion people going on their website this year. 57% going via mobile. they are looking to increase abroad as well. interesting they are trying to shrug off concern next year. we have an election coming up. i talked to jefferies, who said, in an election year you hold off . in the second half, once the election is done, we see transactions buildup again. they say political and economic challenges have not had a material impact on them. >> there are competitive threats looming in the business. >> agents mutual has been created by six the state agents who are fed up -- a state -- estate agents who are fed up. it goes live in january.
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they are saying, use us. the players will be pushed to one side. that is the worry. overall they think this is it too much of a threat. >> thank you very much. a number of companies affected by the strength of the u.k. housing market. we will speak to the head of bank about thest state of the brazilian company. as we head to break, i can tell you the markets are pretty much flat. we will take a short break. ♪
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>> welcome back to "on the move ." >> i am anna edwards just 30 minutes into your trading day. negative on the stoxx 600 those are the broader equity market moves. we come to gdp data out of germany didn't shake things up too much but more focused later on today in the united states as well. let's get some stocks specific moves. >> trying to eke out some of the movers amid a very flat day. -- zupler, the online
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week,, had a pretty good they only sold shares for the first time in june. they've seen profit up about 2%. they are already shrugging off any worries what the future headwind they might see in terms of house prices coming off the boil. they say yes we have political challenges and economic challenges but none of that will have a significant impact on the numbers going forward. what will is the arrival of the new competitor. we will take affective action, zoopla has seen almost 3%. of kingfisher as well the u.k. saysin
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france is proving tough for them. sales are down and they say look you have higher taxes and a poor construction and housing market and weak consumer confidence. all about hitting their french overall unit which is more than half of their overall profitability. nevertheless worried about , if youn pressure drops tuned in yesterday the move was in norm us and petra back -- nearly 50%.l by this in the oil price falls and project delays. they will downgrade petra fact stock today -- petrofac stock today. the whole of it is taken up by oil companies today, you premier oil fulling, janel energy falling,- premier oil janel energy falling.
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opec is unlikely to do nothing we could see oil prices fall by as much as $10. >> let's turn our attention to brazil. ine political uncertainty the country, the reelected president refrain from announcing the next finance minister although reports in the brazilian press have named a successor. joining us now is an exclusive interview on the current business climate is john mark who is the ceo of the investment bank. thank you for joining us. let's talk about what is happening politically in brazil if we could because as we saw reelection, -- the people questioning how much of a reform agenda there will be as she goes into another term. we had an analyst on a few days ago talking about how the real is going to fall and that will
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force an agenda, among the people you talk to in brazil is that enough for reform? >> we're just been through an intense election as you said and i think there is some encouraging signs going forward in terms of a new cabinet and a new finance minister is about to be appointed and probably the investment climate will be back up. we do a for manage going forward inflation which has been a bit resilient, growth hasn't been there and i think we're a more technical cabinet which seems to be the direction she is taking. with that we go back to business. >> what are you looking for? what should the priority be? four years they have been very active in terms of public spending so on and so forth. the macro environment globally will benext few years
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toward more attention for the macro side of the economy is tackling inflation and perhaps more fiscal responsibility and with that you probably can create a better base for regaining more sustainable growth going forward. >> can i ask a little about the what it iscandal and painting about brazil to the outside world because it seems it has transfixed the country and everyone is following on a daily basis the revelation around petro fac. is this taking the issue -- image of brazil? the investigation had just started and it is probably a long way ahead of us let's wait to see what they come up with. >> the u.s. and european investment banks have been retrenching somewhat in brazil, do you see this as an advantage where if they step back for the
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business because of the most recent macro challenges is that something that leaves you with a playing field? it has been helpful in some ways is because of the u.s. economy doing well and growth being back in the u.s. the activity for investment banking has mostly been much stronger. with that the focus of the main global banks has been going back to the u.s.. or twoat some stage 2007 dozen eight we almost got to what we call irrelevant and i think i am back to what we call normal. it does give us a bit more room to hopefully expand and grow. >> your business and the parent businesses have been expanding and growing and you have made a recent move in mexico with a parent company taking a move in chile and columbia, how important is that? >> because we are so latin american based in because we are in the area itk is important to claim that spot in latin america.
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we help that one investors or corporate's or anyone that looks at that would love to have that first call, -- so i'm thinking about latin america but that is what we have been trying to do over the past few years is to set a footprint that covers well the region and it the same time outside the region and europe in the states in asia and the middle east we have an outpost so we can talk to investors and companies and anybody interested in perhaps investing. >> what is the appetite like for investing in brazil and among other people you talk to cousin of the macro challenges that may be seen as a bit of a positive moment for some investors, the billion bricks, it was so exciting for such a long time. >> i would probably split that into two because if you look at the stock market people have a shorter ride and it has been a lot more volatile and up-and-down so on and so forth when you look at more strategic
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investors, private equity investors we take a longer horizon into brazil. is 200 million people with vast natural resources and throughout the selection and throughout this year we have been incredibly busy. and we sawcord year a large multinational companies buy into brazilian assets as they became available. in that sense it has been interestingly enough very busy for us and as we go forward we think that this trend is likely to continue. >> i know you have been busy but ipo's have had a tough time in the country. is that something that will change? >> investors that are looking for shorts like stock market investors have been shy about brazil but i think it will all depend on this new administration if you well, what sort of angle it will take her in -- take.
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if i it said the concern or they will tackle the macro challenge that we have i think investor confidence is likely to come back, so we will see. >> thank you, joining us the ceo of banco ito investment bank. story wenge gears to a are closely watching, protests continue in the streets of ferguson, missouri after a grand someone int charge the death of the unarmed black teenager. rude if -- judith campbell -- elizabeth campbell joins us now. take us to the latest developments. >> the st. louis county police said that the police have made at least 29 arrests and at least 12 buildings are on fire. there is no serious injury among police officers but there were at least 150 shots that have
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been fired by protesters again according to st. louis county police. disappointed that we did not see more peaceful protests and the violets tonight is a lot worse than the worst nights back in august after the shooting. >> what does president obama say about the situation and this goes back to august, we are witnessing this resurgence in violence overnight. >> i know president obama urged thepeace but i had been on ground all night so i have not been able to see his remarks but like i said we are hearing after they got the news that the grand jury chose not to indict darren wilson shortly after 8:00 the crowdse tonight, --front of the figures in ferguson police department a strong reaction right away and lycee protesters threw rocks
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right away and police once the non-verdict was announced. from that there was a lot of anger all night, fires and broken windows and even looting on the main strip of the ferguson police department on west fourth which is near where the shooting took place. thank you for joining us, good to get them on the ground. as we had to break we leave you with those images coming to us from ferguson missouri overnight.
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>> now for a bloomberg exclusive, francine lacqua sat down with ben walk or bay. bet, francene asked him about his concerns to european low flastion. >> we are not in deflation but low inflation is as bad in terms of the capacity of our economy to grow out of depth and deleverage. so we don't need deflation to be worried but low inflation is a concern in this is where we will
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be watching the numbers carefully. upit seems that the ecb set -- stepped up its fighting talk is that because the situation is much worse than expected? >> it is not much worse than expected but we do see the rift moved to economy and inflation and we see a degree of urgency in acting which does not apply to diplomacy. there is urgency in the creating of patriotic growth in the eurozone and urgency in labor market issues and there is urgency in creating jobs. that is the only way to reconcile the people with the project. >> how will you grow? you are saying europe pizza grow and push reforms how much of a danger is it -- europe needs to grow, and push reforms how much of a danger is it?
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>> we have seen a number of reforms in a number of countries and really what has been achieved already in portugal and in ireland and also in greece it is commendable in terms of social reforms. this is already a lot. this is a huge step forward in terms of stability. now what needs to be delivered is growth and that is very particular to investment and that's why the discussion on the unicef plan is so important. >> what is your main concern facing europe? >> my main concern would be that we cannot collectively design and implement reforms that will support productivity and europe. likingroductivity is while -- is lagging, while in
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-- u.s. it drives a wedge it is a threat for future well-being of european people. we need a strong push to see productivity in europe through the reforms. >> francene joins us now and she brought us that exclusive conversation, confusing comments coming from the ecb on one level because he is talking about not making hasty decisions and last week we heard from mario draghi talking about moving as fast as possible. you wonder if there on different speeds. it's interesting when you speak to the executive board member he is trying to justify what mario draghi is saying that there is nothing new but he was just explaining the policy that he set out and he did not say
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that markets got ahead of themselves but he seems to understand there is consensus but markets sometimes tend to overreact and he says this is a given and they thinking about other possibilities and it is not necessarily in december where they will take action. all have been focused for the whole year it seems on the eurozone inflation but even more so this time. >> it is all about inflation of course and he saying that he is concerned about deflation and this is the one thing that ecb central bankers are concerned about but he also mentioned the we find unfortunately out how much money they borrowed in december after the meeting but he's insisted just that is another thing that ecb are closely watching. them want to see how effective these policies have been. that is one strategy that you are watching and will continue to talk about bringing further details.
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mark carney will be giving a testimony later is anti-? -- isn't he? >> what he will be the girl about is the foreign exchange some will tape that testimony live at around 10:10 and later this morning it will be interesting to see how much of the focus it is and how he gets out of it because the bank of england also has that under supervision. >> because he is supposed to be there with the association of the quarterly inflation report? >> he will talk about the u.k. and growth and what we are expecting is him to try to field questions about it which has an going on for more than a year which bloomberg news initially broke. >> talking about delivering speeches or at least appearing in public the pope is going to beginning a key speech today. >> we are excited about this because we think about the pope its pope francis and he talks about wealth and the sharing of wealth and the catholics around the world and this is the first time he gives a public speech
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about europe so we are expecting de, andspeak to jean clau quite a few of the euro leaders showing up. expecting them to talk about mobility and unemployment and getting people back to work and it is the first time we hear from a religious leader how european politicians should deal with the crisis. >> for something entirely different you will taken over by robots on "the pulse." >> we will try to look at the 2015, about wearable robots and you put on your arm -- >> there they are. >> i'm very excited because the person who came up with these life robots are for gaming so it will be guy johnson and i fighting unscreened screen and this is the next generation of gaming and i think the guy who develop them is 22 or 23 and it is part of this new great story of technology. >> going straight for the edge
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of the desk, i hope he doesn't step off. >> it cannot actually physically fall. >> that is impressive. >> we look forward to you battling it out on "the pulse." coming up, more and -- and in a in the money sector after the break. ♪ >> welcome back to "on the move
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." >> the potential merger could be on the table that is according to advisory firm hannemann partners. for coming in, let's nneam. little about ha >> he think the deal happen, it is a $160 billion question. betweenhe driving force a lot of the biggest deals in the sector for the last two decades and put together bhp and billiton and advised on the deal with glencore last year and so for him a massive group of 20 hedge funds and to get them together in a room and presented them how he sees this playing out and to put of you out there that he thinks the deal is all but inevitable is quite a significant turn of events. >> he is not working for either
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of the parties here, not working for glencore or rio, what do we know about this meeting? >> we know that they met in a restaurant about two weeks ago there were about 20 firms and sources tell us that they feel was positioning his boutique advisory firm for a role in any potential deal but there are a lot of skeptics who think this deal will never happen. >> in relation to the iron ore price, why is it likely that this can of deal -- or is it likely that it will take place? >> it is the key doubt to the transaction. the key driver of profit at real pinto, about 90% of their profit absolutely collapsed this year. see how they are pitching to take advantage of
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that price. >> think you for joining us today, good to get your thoughts on rio tinto. as we get an update on the markets, stocks are trading higher, just a little bit higher andss europe by 1/10 of 1% around that much on the french market. the dax doing a little bit better and the ftse mib doing a little bit that are. tables. gdp data on the later on today and we will get that testimony by mark carney and the governor of the bank of england as well and that will be a focus on "the pulse." guy johnson and francine lacqua will be back with "the pulse," talking about robots and dueling those robots. and the pope will make an important speech about youth unemployment in the state of the eurozone economy. in the meantime if you want to you cane on twitter
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find me on that social media logging site. ,"short break and "the pulse is up next. ♪
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>> fury in ferguson. the white police officer avoids charges for the killing of a black teenager. president obama urges calm as chaos erupts on the streets. >> bank of england governor mark carney said the fx role in the scandal is likely to take center teenage. >> pope francis weighs in on the opics drag europe. youth unemployment.

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